♪ >> we are a boom that are in a boom -- we are in a boom. i think growth is going to be quite strong. >> low inflation, low rates, positive economic growth, that is a positive backdrop for risk-taking. >> the fed has lulled everybody to sleep with the kool-aid that they are not going to focus on inflation. >> what risks are most important to the fed and what risks are most important to the world economy? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. a simulcast on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. we welcome all of you around the world. romaine bostick in for john miller. john miller, matt ferro, i'll

get it right. [laughter] lisa abramowicz, we are glad she's here as well. i am going down in flames this morning. romaine bostick, that close yesterday afternoon, what does that symbolize for jerome powell? romaine: i don't know, but for the market is really a general idea that rates aren't really going anywhere for a while. they will be lower for longer. that is why you saw a rotation back into some of those big cap tech names. that pushed the s&p gingerly back to that record high, and the nasdaq composite to a record high as well. tom: it speaks to the economic data we will see here in 90 minutes. and also on retail sales, it is a recalibration out 90 days, one hundred days, even 200 days to the mystery of q3, q4, and into 2022. lisa: you said the market is

speaking. it is speaking. can the fed have an exit? that is a pretty big ask. the idea that their balance sheet at a trillion dollars continues to expand, the idea that there raised could end up some point and the markets could continue to hum along without financial disruption is one that is becoming increasingly tenuous as markets become much more elevated. tom: 4250 on the s&p 500. only up 39% over the last 12 months. lisa: go to cash. tom: if it is tuesday, it must be belgium. somebody said, where did that come from? that was a movie from my youth. we all were in love with tuesday weld. this was a movie from ages ago.

or a song, i can't remember. but the president and belgium, and it is a template for the drama and the moment we will see tomorrow in geneva, switzerland. lisa: a lot of people are looking to the second half of the year to hear more trade war rhetoric, to hear more specific risk around the u.s. and the eu and the china relationship. the dynamic that is getting more tense, especially with some of the rhetoric out of ms. von der leyen overnight. she said we are trying to direct trade away from china. those are fighting words. tom: bitcoin $40,000, just under that level. help me out with the equity market here. 4250 s&p 500, ford you thousand 300 -- 42,300 on dow. i look at the nasdaq, 14135.

it is a wow statistic. romaine: those large-cap tech names got back above the all-time highs from april, but the s&p has really been creeping along, record high after record high. something now like 28 or 29 record highs so far year to date. several of those have come just over the past few days. tom: what did you learn yesterday on correlations between equities and bonds? romaine: that there is no hedge right now, at least in the fixed income market. we had two fixed income managers yesterday both lamenting the fact that they are actually fixed income managers. one even going so far as to say he wished he was managing equities. tom: maria tadeo is in brussels this morning. lisa, you have a brief. lisa: a lot of fixed income managers are becoming more equity like.

8:30 a.m. eastern time, we get the u.s. retail sales data, as well as ppi. retail sales expected to come in with a slight decline. people will say this is people going to the services. i am interested in this airbus-boeing agreement. it signals a huge softening in the relationship between the two regions, and this idea of working together in a post trump era. then we get a sense of foreign demand for treasuries with the data coming out for the month of april. as the dollar weakens and as people believe in the prospect for it to stay somewhat stable, albeit weaker than earlier in the year, a lot of foreign investors see the u.s. still at the highest yielding spot, talking about how global the bond market really is. tom: this is a really important conversation. sarah hunt with us without

pinewood's capital investors. this is -- with alpine woods capital investors. i am absolutely fascinated with how you perceive big tech. we saw the apple surge yesterday. if this big tech unloved, or are we climbing on board the mega move we saw of 18 months ago? sarah: i think you had a long pause and some of those tech stocks. september of last year, you were at levels that are basically where we are now. that has had some time to digest, the fact that it was higher, they had a huge swing up, and everything paused. people went and looked at what else was happening in the economy. they started looking in other areas. i think what you are seeing now is the realization that with rates starting to back off of a high a couple of weeks ago, people are going back to tech stocks because the growth is

still there. in the end, i think that is what really matters. as much as we can look at different parts of the economy, everything we have is more and more involved with tech. there's semiconductors and almost everything these days. so i don't see that the tech space is not a good beneficiary of whatever is happening in the economy. lisa: where is the greatest degree of undue complacency and markets right now. -- in markets right now? sarah: that's a tough one. to go back to your fed discussion, what is the fed going to do, and how is that going to play into everything else? it has been pushing towards equities and other higher risk assets. how does that play out? how does the fed back away from that? that is going to be a very big question, we don't know how that is going to play out just yet. the odds that it ends up continuing in a more quiet way are pretty high to me, but in

the end, at some point they are going to have to do something a little different than that. how are markets going to take that? romaine: and i wonder whether that is so far in the future right now, any sort of normalization, that we can continue down this road with regards to the pricing we are seeing in it, and fixed income -- in equities, in fixed income, and did some of these alternative assets. sarah: if you ask anybody for a five years ago -- anybody four or five years ago, they would say the fed would have to exit. and here we are still with some unusual monetary measures globally. i think with rates coming down again europe, it also makes the u.s. look or track -- look more attractive. i think the u.s. does look at a relatively speaking, but it is still really tough. i think it is going to be difficult to see how we get out of this, but i think we could keep going a lot longer than people think we can.

tom: do you have any earnings visibility, 15 days to june 30? we regroup, alcoa comes out. jp morgan will start the bank earnings. do you have any visibility on what earnings look like coming up? sarah: this has been such an the usual time frame, it is very difficult to see earnings visibility. i was looking at some of the bank estimates, and what they come out with our wildly different. some things are more simple to predict then bank earnings, which i think are very tough to predict. but in the scheme of things, i think it is very tough to say we know what earnings are going to be, except that they are going to be higher. the question is how much and for how long. tom: thank you very much. sarah hunt with us, of alpine woods capital, on construction and the view forward. it is one thing to say, bible this, markets that -- to say econo babble this, markets that.

lisa: you can't just sit on your hands and wait for something to happen. if someone was in triple leveraged all cash funds, they might have missed out. with respect to the financials, i thought it was really interesting, that jp morgan and jamie dimon came out and warned of a trading revenue drop. you saw a huge boom in trading off the heels of all the stimulus and the sudden reversal in the view of the markets, and the idea of a negative comparison or at least a deteriorating comparison year-over-year speaks to peak growth, peak earnings. have we crossed that rubicon? which industries have we crossed that with, and how much is that priced and? romaine: i sort of agree with lisa. i also think jamie dimon is a master of managing expectations, and you have to kind of talked on the street a little bit because folks are really starting to price in things that were a little bit unrealistic for some of these banks to match

again in q3. tom: we've got sonali basak on top of this story, the whole idea of waltzing back to work. what is your reporting, r omaine? tom: goldman -- romaine: goldman brought everybody back at once, and other banks are saying this should be the template. we will see how it works out. i don't have any real insight other than that, other than to say that we are coming out of this crisis. lisa: i think there's a bigger question for the banks. we talk about trading revenues coming out and managing expectations. jp morgan shares basically flat. there is a question, can they increase lending. if the economy does pick up and people start going back to work and doing things, if the lending picks up, that will look a lot better for them. tom: i think it is very important, and it speaks to the tech move yesterday.

right now on a percentage basis, i've got dow flat. nasdaq does better than the s&p 500 fractionally on a percentage basis. we have economic data coming up at 8:30. the president of the united states in brussels. michael holland later. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. and the european union have agreed to a truce in their 17 your dispute over aircraft subsidies 17 year dispute over aircraft subsidies -- their 17 year dispute over aircraft subsidies. policy makers in both the eu and u.s. are concerned over china's state-sponsored aircraft maker, which is on track to become a major player in the industry. the u.k. is set to announce the terms of a free-trade deal with

australia today. the agreement is expected to cut tariffs on products like scotch whiskey, clothing and cars. british ministers have been concerned they could be undercut by chief australian meat imports. china is warning nato it won't sit back in the face of an challenges. beijing said that the alliance could not demonstrate military power. the u.s. suggested that allies should take a tougher stance on china. the biden administration is outlining plans for fighting domestic terrorism. the government promised to be better at using existing federal resources. it will also consider whether more is needed to deal with the threat. it is a step back for astrazeneca. the drugmaker's antibody

cocktail was only 33% effective in preventing covid symptoms of people who had been exposed to the virus. it is running other studies that could help clarify the findings. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance."

good morning, everyone. the president of the united states in brussels, with leaders of the european union. i can tell you, there is some ugly architecture, and then there is the beauty. the building he is in was designed by the great belgian architect philippe serin -- philippe salmon and. it is a stunning building that the president speaks from this morning. on radio and television, it is the president with the secretary of state to his right, gina raimondo, the secretary of commerce, to the left. our david westin in conversation with secretary ray mondo -- secretary raimondo later this morning. this is ahead of a tense meeting with vladimir tomorrow. that's with vladimir putin tomorrow -- with vladimir putin tomorrow. lisa: there are still so many

big picture questions, especially post president trump, which really set a different tone in that relationship. tom: right now we will stay on this story. jack fitzpatrick joins, bloomberg government in washington. there's the tone of a bipartisan washington in discussion with china. it is it -- is it a bipartisan washington in discussions with russia? jack: it is more or less a bipartisan washington in discussions with russia. it is not always actionable. many congressional republicans are more russia hawks then former president trump. but the question is how exacting that manifests itself. right now, congress is working on a bill aimed at competing with china. when it comes to russia, they

are seen as less of an economic competitor, but the question going forward will be what can congress actually do on cyber security concerns, which is an area where they have mostly sat on their hands in terms of legislating. tom: the tariffs, the boeing and airbus announcement, this has been talked about for the last 24 hours, and i believe we have the agreement now to suspend aircraft terrace for five years. great. you just assume this biden adminstration will pull back on all of the tariffs procedures and efforts that mr. trump took? jack: not necessarily all tariffs. think that is a very relevant question when it comes to the eu , when it comes to china that is a very different conversation. we will have to see how things pan out on any other tariffs relating to steel, for example. but we are supposed to get

announcement at 9:00 relating to the details of this five-year agreement, at least on the airlines, that was many years in the making. so in general, that is probably a reasonable line of thinking in terms of u.s. tariffs relating to the eu. lisa: how much was china the impetus for this agreement? jack: that was a significant focus, putting everything down and turning toward china, and trying to compete better with china was a significant part of the discussions between the u.s. and the eu. it clearly is a major part of the discussion on a variety of other issues that we are going to see today between the u.s. and eu, and i think it came up at yesterday's nato meeting as well. lisa: taking up that bill that

the senate already passed on supporting technological advancement within the united states, to directly counter or add to the rivalry of the competitive relationship between the u.s. and china. what is the likelihood of that getting passed given the support you have seen so far? jack: it looks good. they've got significant more than the 60 vote threshold in the senate. the issue now is the house is very much doing their own thing. they may come to a similar agreement on these issues, but rather than just taking up the senate bill, the house is going through its own committees, so it looks like a longer process in which house members really go through their own regular order, and there will probably be some work to reconcile the differences between what the house does and what the senate did. but everything we saw in the senate appears to show a significant amount of bipartisanship on the issue. romaine: a lot of focus on what is going on internationally.

there's still a lot of domestic issues out there. i know we are expecting to hear from the attorney general at some point later today about the threat of domestic terrorism specifically, related to that attack on the capitol. jack: there was an initial white house fact sheet. we are supposed to hear more today on how exactly the biden administration can use current resources to prioritize going after white supremacist extremism and that kind of thing. it doesn't get into every specific that lawmakers want when it comes to disagreements over a 9/11 style january 6 commission, even when it comes to funding needs to further secure the capitol, and the debate over something like a retractable fence and executive what they do with the capitol police and the national guard. so this is a little more of a

scalpel rather than the broad approach that lawmakers have struggled with. but it is one step on with the executive branch can do alone on that issue. tom: jack, thank you so much. jack fitzpatrick reporting from washington with bloomberg government. we hope to get reports from the president through a brussels day, and i believe this afternoon, leaving for geneva as well. let's swing it back here in one hour to the retail report. there's a control group where you take out this and take out that. when i look at the lumpiness of inflation right now, i have real trouble with the control group. i want to see the overall statistics. lisa: you and everybody else. this is very unique data. if you look at the surprise index by citigroup, which takes a look at how many economic indicators come in well below expectations, it is actually at

the highest pace right now since march. so there is a sense that things have been beating more often than missing. but still, everyone sort of dismisses each data point as it comes out. these used to be relevant. tom: romaine, i find the linkage of what we are going to see in 34 minutes with the stock market be tangible. romaine: certainly tangible. we talk about the lumpiness of that data, the pickup and spending is what is taken out of the control group. so you talk about food, energy, a lot of services stuff. every economist we talked to says you can't go by the historical norms of how you would normally measure and read this data. you really have to kind of look at each division will report in and of itself to get a read on what is going on in the economy. tom: we will see. romaine in for jon ferro through this hour. thank you for watching on

bloomberg television, listening on bloomberg radio. our team in europe and brussels, and we are watching these markets, with the dollar fractionally stronger over two days. nicely stronger. the end, 1009. -- the tens 1.49. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone. thank you for being with us this morning. with a mixed view towards economic data and exactly one hour. right now we are going to launch forward. really interesting here. first, the individual stocks. our the meme stocks like yesterday's news, or are they still there? romaine: they are still there, believe it or not. think about cleveland cliffs, which inexplicably became a meme stock last week and rallied about 20%. this is a maker of iron ore pellets. the company came out today and raised its ebit forecast -- its ebita forecast. we know the ceo has been pretty

outspoken, so we will see how much weight is behind this, but those shares up about 2% in the premarket. also up is boeing, finally getting worried that there might be a truce in that battle between the u.s. and the eu over aircraft subsidies. still waiting on the formality of that agreement. a little bit of a pop to boeing, up about 0.7%. related to the travel space, spirit airlines gave an update for 2q yesterday. citi upgrading today. that share is up about 2% in the premarket. an interesting move in oracle. they are going to report earnings after the bell. yesterday we saw a lot of these application software companies rally pretty hard. some optimism that a lot of these names are going to report good earnings. we get oracle tonight and i believe adobe tomorrow night.

sage therapeutics, a pharmaceutical company working on depression medicine, came out with details of the phase 3 study that seem to be relatively positive on the top line, but investors seem to be looking at something different, pushing the shares down about 20%. we will keep an eye on that throughout the day. tom: thank you so much, as we vault forward with record highs on the nasdaq and the s&p 500. a number of years ago, one of the acclaimed books i spoke of was robert kaplan's "return of marco polo's world." it was a piercing book of the south china sea and the expansion of china across the pacific rim. we are thrilled to bring you from australia's macquarie, their director of global currencies and interest-rate strategies, thierry wizman. thank you so much for joining

us. forget about the return of marco polo's world. tell me about the return to the pacific rim. i look at adxy, and it is surging. thierry: in part because as much as with the rest of the world, asia is experiencing a high-growth period right now. you have some central banks which were not talking about tightening now talking about tightening, effectively following some of the rhetoric out of central banks. clearly the yuan and china has done well the last few months, in part because of the growth in china. in part because of the premise that china is going to be tightening and yields would remain attractive. we have been a long advocate of buying chinese, getting involved in chinese yield markets and corporate bonds. so i think typically, when you

get a recovery, is inclined nice -- a secret as global recovery, emerging market currencies do well. i think this is part and parcel of what is happening with the asian currencies right now. tom: what is the character, and i am not going to call it a pacific rim boom. i don't know if that is accurate or not. but if we have a pacific rim gross, is it globalization that is typical, or is there something new going on? thierry: there is something new going on these days. i guess the question is whether it is going to persist into the second half area but keep in mind, there is such a thing as too much growth and too much speculation associated with it. one of the interesting things we are seeing in the marketplace, relevant overnight with the selloff in commodities, is that chinese policymakers think there might be too much speculation based on too much anticipation of growth. you have seen it recently with the big rout in iron and copper prices. this is starting to set off

alarms amongst chinese policymakers. there are plenty of rumors out there that they are going to release strategic supplies of commodities and limit price decreases, and this is happening fairly early in the cycle. i think this is one of those things that is quite different about this cycle, especially as it pertains to china and asia more generally. this has ramifications in chile for other emerging market currencies that would otherwise do well in a rising commodity price environment, but might be made susceptible to chinese policymakers tightening at this point. lisa: you began an economist at the new york federal reserve. we are coming into a time where economists are wondering about value points that seem to be increasingly messy. when you wonder about what gauges to look at, what data points are you looking at for clarity right now? thierry: let's be very clear, i understand what you mean about some data points being messy and

the markets not reacting in a way you anticipate, but that is in part because we are in a special situation coming out of this pandemic, and the nature of that exit has distorted not just the data, but the interpretation of the data. the cpi that came out last week is a point. it did not seem to react that much because inflation pricing power was highly concentrated in those four or five categories associated with the reopening, and there wasn't that much inflation elsewhere. i think this is a key idea that is going to last for the next few weeks, where we have to look well beyond the headline numbers and delve deep into the details to try to ascertain whether or not there is structural inflation in the system. it is not something you would gather from looking at the details. lisa: what are federal reserve economists looking at to determine where their policy out

to be? thierry: the breadth of inflation. speaking to what i said about cpi coming out last week, the breadth of inflation is clearly important here. we don't want to see, and i think what the fed means by sustained inflation, is not sustained headline inflation in just a few key things. i think we need to see sustained inflation across all categories of goods and services in the economy for the fed to be inclined to think there is substantial progress. so that is key. if there's anything that worries me about inflation, not even what is in the data, it is what is in expectations. we have seen certain surveys pick up quite a bit and the expectations for inflation, but i don't expect the fed tomorrow to follow through with that pickup and inflation expectations. remember, even though they made it to market, they may have to simply used it because they have been surprised about inflation

over the past few weeks and months. i think that might have a sense of calm for the markets and the fomc summary of economic projections is published tomorrow. romaine: have you been reassured by the communication that we have gotten so far from the fed on those inflation expectations and the inflation outlook? thierry: yes, but i would say that the fed in its approach to methodology is not always consistent. for example, it says it is not going to move until it sees the data approve its thesis, and yet with inflation, the fed is willing to come out and say trust our models and not be headline data you are seeing in front of your screen. i think other people have highlighted this as well. but let's be clear, there are reasons why the fed is willing

to wait before making the determination as to how large the pace of tapering will be. i agree with the fed in that respect. not all of it, but quite a bit, and the residual amounts will only be figured out as we go down the road in september and october. romaine: let's talk about this side of the equation because i think people have the fed model down. isaac there is concern about what the employment model is, or what sort of metric they are looking at here to judge exactly when we have reached full employment or qualitative employment here. i think that is may be causing a bloomberg of some of the disparity we are seeing here in the market pricing. thierry: i would agree. there's a little more consistency in the fed's message about an asian and a little bit more assured then there is about the situation because when you inject things like this approach

into your policy goals, it definitely starts to get fuzzy. but let's put it this way. if we continue to grow nonfarm payrolls at a rate of 506,000 workers per month for the next few months, we are probably going to get to a point by around february where we have recovered about 75% to may be 80% of all the employment loss we have seen getting in the pandemic. i think that would be significant with substantial progress as an argument for employment. if we see the fed start to announce it is going to taper, that would probably mean they begin to taper sometime in the first quarter of 2022. that's the way we see things now. tom: and we hope you can be with us the day they announced the taper in the autumn. it will be something. thierry: call me. tom: thierry wizman, thank you

so much. there's just this assumption, not a gloom, but somebody has got to go. we are moving away from where we've been. it will be like, boom. [laughter] [laughter] one more time lisa: come what was that -- lisa: one more time, what was that? thierry -- thierry was saying, at what point do we prep just to keep things in check? tom: i'm looking at a fancy point and figure chart. all you've got to know is on the bloomberg -- lisa: you point and figure it out. [laughter] tom: romaine bostick, in april, in june, but by july of last year, we sort of knew where this was going. that is an elegant chart. romaine: it is. i don't actually know what chart

you are looking at. lisa: he's pointing and contemplating. [laughter] romaine: this explains everything. lisa: you point at it and then you figure it out. [laughter] technical term. tom: i am going down in flames here. stay with us on tv and radio. good morning. [laughter] ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. on the european union have agreed to a five-year tariff troops in the long-standing dispute over subsidies -- tariff truce in the long-standing dispute over subsidies to airbus and boeing. bloomberg has learned the u.s. would be added to a so-called

white list of countries from which non-essential travel to the eu is allowed. that will be a boost to airlines such as list anza -- such as lufthansa and air france. president biden because vladimir putin a worthy adversary at a news conference following the nato summit. the president says he will tell the russian leader at their meeting tomorrow that if alexi navalny dies in prison, it would hurt relations with the rest of the world. apple is facing renewed scrutiny in washington. the issue the company -- the issue, the company's compliance with the trump administration on searches. the data was turned over to the justice department. global news 24 hours a day, on

air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what scares the fed more, a

persistently high unemployment rate or a touch of inflation that tells us many times over and over again has plenty of tools to manage should it occur? i think the fed has stated its objectives getting the unemployment rate to the point where it is towards persistent price increases near the target, and we are not there yet. tom: a blistering interview yesterday on what this fed is going to do, and most of what they are going to do is wait. we will wait for the economic data in less than 45 minutes. it will be a nice set up for tomorrow's fed meeting. right now on the gloom out there, and lisa, we can go to the pendulum of put and call, is dave wilson on something from my youth, the put-call ratio. does the put-call ratio matter anymore? dave: what you are getting is a sense of how people look at the stock market by going to the options market. tom: by betting short or betting

long, betting gloom like lisa. lisa: absolutely -- dave: absolutely. we have certainly seen a whole lot of smaller investors buy and call options as opposed to buying the underlying shares. so what is that this ratio is getting to levels you haven't seen since 2000. it is something julian emanuel at btig pointed out in his report, it is a positive put call ratio, and it is a 10 day moving average to smooth out the day-to-day fluctuations. when you do all that, you find out we are back to the lowest level on this ratio since mid-2000. if you stand it on its head, it is selling you -- it is telling you there's a whole lot of optimism in the options market. tom: it is a level of optimism on your storied career. are we crazy optimistic now? dave: there's a lot of it out

there, no question. we got the latest results from bank of america's survey of investors. among other things, the prevailing view was that inflation is indeed going to be transitory. they say commodities have replaced bitcoin is the most crowded trade, at least for now. tom: i am waiting for a vix of nine before i plunge. dave: you are definitely going closer. tom: right now we want sri natarajan to stop by with a wonderful essay on the gentleman at morgan stanley. mr. pick is a different guy, or is he just a throwback to a morgan stanley and wall street of old? sri: he certainly is in old throwback to when he was down on the trading floor. he has climbed to the talk

brinks -- to the top ranks and is one of the likely successors to james gorman when he does decide to hang it up. lisa: why is this success important for the organization? sridhar: we have to look across wall street, and look at diamond -- look at jamie dimon, brian moynihan, these that have really guided their firms through the worst of the financial crisis and the recovery that followed. now we are a decade into their runs. you are looking at the next card. morgan stanley has had a massive transformation because it has really built out its wealth operation and business as well, and that is the big staple -- the big, stable source of revenue for them now.

lisa: this is really important, when jamie dimon said yesterday he's expecting trading revenues to come down significantly this quarter, including versus expectations. how do we look at trading going forward, given the fact that it is notoriously fickle, but also has been an absolute stalwart of the earnings picture for wall street? sridhar: the best part of jamie dimon being ceo for 15 years and counting is that he is in shackled -- is that he isn't shackled by the need to be circumspect. the context is important. look at it compared to 2019 levels. we knew that the pandemic trading boom was not going to last for apple, but the forecast -- was not going to last forever, but if you go into all the banks, they would take it. they know it is a 2020.

if they are significantly ahead of the 2019 numbers, they are happy. romaine: we are talking about a potential changing of the guard at the top of some of these banks. will they be a changing of the guard with regard to how these banks are ranked? sridhar: that's a great question because one interesting dynamic ring this oh of tell multiple -- of to melt -- of tumult and turmoil at the major banks, at a time when the trading while it had increased, these banks are also able to increase their market share. now when we return to a bit more of a normal trading environment, you will lose just a little but of the upside, not just from the well of coming down, but also the market share getting more equally distributed. that is one thing we definitely want to keep an eye out for. tom: you have a very valuable chart in your report.

essentially for the last four years, there's been a goldman sachs underperformance. is anybody at goldman sachs upset about that? sridhar: they've had a new ceo for the last two years and change, and he is taking the firm in any direction. if 20/20 was the decade where jp morgan really -- if 2020 was the decade where jp morgan really became one of the strongest u.s. banks, there is hope that goldman will be able to rediscover its pre-financial crisis form. how they do it would most likely have to be quite different than before 2008. tom: do you see evidence that goldman sachs can pick it up and outperform as they did for 10 years before 2017?

sridhar: if you can judge a banks performances by the number of people in the office, they goldman sachs stands to do well because they have been more aggressive and out there then any of their peers in bringing people back. but i don't think that is what is going to determine it. will that give them the runway to also carry out their consumer operations? we will have to see on that one. tom: thank you very much. lisa, it is going to be fascinating to see what wall street does. we go into the summer, and then we got to shape up for bonus season and the retention of p employees. lisa: and the competition with big tech that is getting more into financial services. tom: it is going to be interesting to see what mr.

gensler does over at a sissy as we have heard -- at s.e.c. as we have heard from a number of guests that was -- of guests as well. stay with us on radio and television. this is -- this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> we are in a boom. there are some supply-side dislocations that writer -- that are a bit confusing, but i think growth is going to be quite strong. >> liquidity has been push people out of fixed income. >> in the june meeting, if they say anything hawkish, it will be a mistake. >> are there people who are going to hike sooner? that is a question you want to watch. >> what risks are most important to the fed, and what risks are most important to the world economy? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: another slew of record