>> we are in a boom. there are some supply-side dislocations that writer -- that are a bit confusing, but i think growth is going to be quite strong. >> liquidity has been push people out of fixed income. >> in the june meeting, if they say anything hawkish, it will be a mistake. >> are there people who are going to hike sooner? that is a question you want to watch. >> what risks are most important to the fed, and what risks are most important to the world economy? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: another slew of record highs as we look for the fed to

out dove us all. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. jon ferro out, remade bostick at romaine bostick very much in. -- romaine bostick very much in. there seems to be complacency that the fed is not going to be particularly hawkish. tom: on the international basis, there's at least some other nations sort of pushing against the huge accommodation from the fed. the accommodation is going to come in 29 minutes with economic data. lisa: although it is unclear whether any central bank in the developed world is willing to push the idea that that would risk tightening their currency, raising the strength of it, and perhaps hijacking the economy. this is the ecb conundrum right now. tom: dxy, 90.6 tics. maybe an indication of a weak dollar.

i would say we had dollar stasis for the last two weeks. do you agree with that? romaine: probably the last year, really. the idea in general is when you look at the accommodation we are getting by the fed and the lack of movement in the dollar which is no wonder you are seeing stocks continue to creep higher and higher. there's no reason not to be out on that risk spectrum if you believe these conditions are going to persist. tom: is that on the agenda for biden in brussels this morning? lisa: people say that long commodities is the most overcrowded trade, overtaking bitcoin. at this point, prices at the pump have been going up, probably not enough to create any international issue. nonetheless, it is becoming increasingly an issue with taxes. tom: jon ferro is very good about this. you have a driver's license? lisa: i do. [laughter] romaine? romaine: yes. lisa: tom and jon don't.

"surveillance" road trip. i'm driving. romaine: it is never too late to get a drivers license. lisa: did you see that people are holding onto to their cars a lot longer? romaine: if you ever go below 59th, you will need some kind. tom: people are holding them longer come but the fact is at 17 million units a year, there's the gloom out there, except people are acting with the bid up we see in used cars. don't tell my used car prices are transitory. lisa: you've got supply chain disruptions, you've got commodity shortage or even commodity prices that are moving higher. you have people moving to more suburban areas and they need more cars. they don't want to take public

transportation as much. a confluence of events that could change, but for how long, considering the fact that increasingly, people saying these supply chain disruptions are going to last? romaine: fleet buying is putting a lot of pressure on it. tom: we will get to a really esteemed guest on the fact that i am not in this market. green on the screen with a leading percentage move by the nasdaq and hundred, 14,134. vicks doesn't give me much, but it is better in the -- vix doesn't give me much, but it is better than the last hour. bond prices have cratered, right? lisa: cratered. it is amazing how sticky they have been. we have been talking about this all morning. it has been downright stasis. tom: brent crude up 1.2 percent.

$73 70 four cents is the surge. michael holland joins us from holland ensco, looking -- from holland an co., moving forward with a more solid and stable approach. let's start with the meme trading now. when does this go away, or are we going to live with meme trading forever? michael: likely not forever. the reality is that all of these things do go away. you just don't know how long they take to go away. i wouldn't be real fast to get out of your cash position and start shorting stocks right now. lisa: michael, you are just saying music to tom's ears. why do you think people ought to be holding some cash right now, given the fact that there is extreme accommodation from central banks? michael: the history that tom talks about, what happens is when you get to this point where

complacency is pretty well earned because the federal reserve right now is doing what it is doing, listening to carl weinberg over the last couple of days, i think you have very smart people saying things can be pretty good for an extended period of time because of the fed. having said that, tom said earlier in the show, 39% increase, meme stocks, all of the things that the bears talk about, both camps have eerie smart people in them. having said that, i really like an all weather portfolio so that when things go when things go in the direction no one expect, you are still ok. i want to be a survivor in these markets. romaine: i am curious, why would anyone buy into the case that the fed can orchestrate this proverbial soft landing? michael: i don't think the

buy-in is 100%. in fact, the soft landing may not happen, and it may happen. it probably could be a little messy, but i have no reason to think my prediction would be as good as the three of yours or carl weinberg's or anyone else's. so no one knows the answer to whether that would be a soft landing. it might be, which means down 100% triple levered is probably not the right position in the market. tom: when you look at the accounting statements of these companies, it speaks of fundamental analysis. does a fundamental analysis have a value here? dust securities analysis have a value here, when you soothe ratios we are living with? michael: absolutely. when you get to a time like this

in the next decade, when you want to have the financial statements that tell you as in the case of jp morgan, they show you why they have fortresslike balance sheets, what the prospects are for your trading revenues having been so great. there's a gold mine of information in those financial statements, and that is part of why i've been able to survive myself by paying attention to things. those are kind of immutable things. lisa: there's a spectrum of risk and return, and the idea of there are times to go hard into risk for that return, and there are times to accept very little return for not being very risky. where are you right now on that spectrum? michael: a perfect question because centuries ago, a very successful investor named rothschild said buy when there's

blood in the streets. we are certainly not seeing blood in the streets right now. we are seeing a federal reserve that is giving a pass to anyone who wants to see assets of any kind go up, so it is time to have some cash. in the risk spectrum, we are seeing some caution for sure. romaine: let's say you don't want to necessarily go into cash or move a large allocation into cash. you want to stay in the market and take art upside might be left here. is there safety to be found in that thinking? michael: i think tom's question about fundamental analysis is related to the answer to your question. i sell the stock a few months ago trading at quite a low multiple. prospects for the company that has shown itself over the years

get it right. my guess is maybe it will be a lousy report and they will go straight down, but there are companies, jp morgan and that category, there are places in the market where you can find opportunities, but you have to work at it. tom: michael holland, thank you so much. greatly appreciated this morning. i love saying this, lisa, dow 34,275. i am still not used to that number. lisa: i just let you were talking about quoting the dow because i know jon ferro is very excited. it is not just that. it is everything. we are getting this every day of new highs, whether it is the s&p, the nasdaq, new lows on junk bond yields.

romaine: i don't know that it is necessarily complacency. i think it's the idea that nothing didn't disrupt this over the next six months or so. tom: i don't see complacency out there. i see a lot of worry on the part of people. lisa: there is worry in their speech. there's not worry in their actions because they see the amount of cash in the system and where it has to go. do you consider it worry that there has been a record pace of riskier corporate debt issuance so far this year, at a time when actual borrowing costs are at an all-time low? is that caution? tom: we will have to see. we have president biden in brussels as well this morning. lots to talk about air. i am looking at the feed come of famed "surveillance" feed of 42 tv stations. they were -- they are showing a castle in brussels. not sure which castle it is.

[laughter] anyway, the president is in brussels. a conversation with the commerce secretary of the united states area we will speak to gina raimondo -- the united states. we will speak to gina raimondo. economic data in 17 minutes. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. and european union have agreed to a five-year tariff troops in the long -- tariff truce in the long-standing dispute over airbus and boeing. it turns the page on a key conflict in president's trade war with europe. the u.k. is set to announce a free-trade deal was australia today, expect it to cut tariffs on products like scotch whiskey, clothing, and cars. british farmers have been concerned they could be undercut by cheap australian meat imports. the british government has hinted that tariff cuts could be

phased into protect the farmers. the eu reportedly has excluded 10 of the biggest acts in the debt markets from running its lucrative bond sales. according to "the financial times," that's because they were involved in market rigging scandals. five months after the assault on the u.s. capitol, the biden administration is outlining plans for fighting domestic terrorism. it will also consider whether more laws are needed to deal with the threat. deutsche bank is set to rick and $1 billion on a -- to rake in $1 billion on a bet. would you bank is on track for one of its biggest wins since more than a decade ago. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i am very positive that we will find an agreement on the

airbus and boeing issue today, in our conversation with our american friends. this is the longest trade dispute in the history of wto, so it is in our common interest to solve it. tom: ursula von der leyen, the european commission president fair. she is in an important meeting this morning with mr. biden as well. lisa abramowicz, romaine bostick, and tom keene. economic data in 12 minutes. chris verrone talking about tepid breadth, and a subtle loss in momentum yesterday. i really thought maybe that captured the hesitancy up to the final minutes of trading. lisa: there isn't necessarily capitulation to all in on the fed. there is a feeling of weight and see. are they going to confirm extreme dovishness at tomorrow's meeting? that perhaps is where the hesitancy comes in. but you don't see it that many places, right? tom: it is going to be

interesting to see. owing and airbus, let's get right to this now. we have just linked up with george ferguson, bloomberg intelligence senior airspace -- senior aerospace expert. give us the latest on southwest air, un-all boeing fleet. where do we stand with the american airlines and their desire to play boeing off airbus? do they do that, or is there a nationalistic tendency here? george: good morning. there's really not much of a nationalistic tendency in the u.s., so what we see is two of the fastest-growing airlines in the country, frontier and spirit airlines, are all airbus. then the big three, you've got delta that is privet dominantly -- that is predominately and airbus customer. united i would consider more of a boeing customer, and american

went to a mixed fleet a bunch of years ago before they refreshed the fleet. americans are quite mercantile when it comes to buying planes. lisa: how much of a potential hurt is this, or a boon to boeing, given the fact that owing and airbus now will not be getting any state subsidies going forward for at least the next five years? george: i think the subsidy part has really played out. the europeans used to provide aid. they weren't giving a lot lately. boeing had gotten money out of defense. europeans already claimed -- europeans always claimed it got a bonus out of defense. so i'm not sure it is going to change the equation. the big advantage here is that airbus has a lot more customers than the u.s., and therefore they will be able to ship a lot more airplanes without tariffs then boeing will. boeing's primary customer in europe is really ryanair.

they took an order from iag while the max was grounded. but what we see from the airlines in europe is actually airlines like air france, easyjet, some of the bigger airlines there. it really has contracted. romaine: folding into this, the idea of commercial aircraft in china and the idea that it could become a viable competitor. i am curious, in your mind, is there room for another player in this space with regards to the larger aircraft? george: i think the chinese will make room for another player. as we were getting into the pandemic, the chinese were approaching buying almost 300 narrow bodies every year, and that is what boeing and airbus were producing. they were buying a sizable number of those airplanes, so if

they decide they are going to buy their airplane, that puts a big dent in boeing and airbus's deliveries for narrow bodies. so i think the chinese will make room. i think the threat is a decade out. they are doing test flights initially in china. they will have to learn how to support an airplane in china, and then if they want to sell it globally, they would probably sell it into third world initially. maybe they would do trade deals, but to compete against the primary customers for airbus and boeing outside of china, we think it is probably more than a decade away. i think they have to think about it. tom: you are expert on this. the chinese commercial aviation, is it a clone of a boeing or an airbus? is there something new there? is george ferguson blown away by the c919?

george: really, they have built an airframe which a lot of people can do, and put a component from europe and the u.s. onto the airplane. in time, i think they will try to replace those components with chinese components. they want to be in this high-value industry, but right now i am not concerned about it area it won't be an airplane that beats the 737 or a320. that keeps distance between them. lisa: before we let you go, we were talking about deserts full of parked planes, the idea that they were not in use. nobody was flying. everybody once to fly now, and yet capacity is more of a concern with respect to pilots, with respect to who is going to staff those planes. where are we in terms of capacity heading into 2022? george: there's still a lot of airplanes parked in the world, i think 25% of the narrowbody fleet is parked. there's enough pilots right now,

but there's a lot of retirements coming. there's a lot of retirements coming in the u.s. airlines, so the challenge will be in the years ahead, 23, 24. i think you will see 30,000 u.s. pilot retirements. if there's any type of growth you need to add on top of that, typically what we see is people make more money. i think the pilot issue is a couple years out. but it is coming. tom: george ferguson, thank you so much, with bloomberg intelligence. you are overplayed. [laughter] lisa: welcome to my life. tom: i've never seen it. there's planes in the desert. lisa: you can actually see them. if you go to the desert, you can see the planes parked there because the conditions are good.

these have been there for 14 months. these are pictures of planes for people on radio. the conditions are good out there. remember, you've got to bring all of these back online. you have to check all of them out. who is going to be ordering planes in the near future. tom: i did a series of interviews on this. the pros look at it as engines with a hunk of aluminum between them. the focus is on who does the maintenance of the engines and that. i don't pretend to really understand it. this economic data in for five minutes, what will you look for? lisa: whether the downside surprise is more significant. but i am also looking for a sense of momentum, how quickly people are spending. it is going to be messy data because of how unique this moment is. tom: all romaine and i

are doing, is can apple do it two days in a row. we are going to see a slew of data. stay with us. on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: good morning. economic data upon us. ppi, business inflation of three types. also retail sales and gazing at the american consumer. michael mckee. is it just goods based michael:? goods based for retail sales and they are down 1.3%. a bit disappointing. the forecast was 4.8% drop. -- was for a .8% drop. we have a comparison number rather than an actual number. still seeing a lot of retail sales, just not as many as the prior month because the stimulus checks are falling out of the economy. the overall retail numbers, retail trade sales down 1.7%. x autos and gas down .8%.

that is important because auto sales fell a little bit as there were not as many cars for sale because of the chip shortage. gasoline prices rose less than the seasonal adjustment. that is why you're seeing the .8% rise in retail sales. tom: are they falling this in order they take it the average or they just discarded because it does not so service -- does not show service sector? michael: service sector is where they're expected to see real growth. tom: restaurants, and lisa's bar bill is not in this? lisa: i'm sure everybody is worried about my bar bill. michael: food services are in the data. food services and drinking places were up by 1.8%.

she did contribute. lisa: thank you. a lot of people are thanking me for that contribution. there is a towel -- there is a tell that perhaps higher costs are impeding people's willingness to spend. at what point can we take that away from the goods numbers we are seeing in terms of sales, given the fact we are seeing a big increase in cars, and used car parts? michael: it is hard to disentangle it. we will get better read when we get the gdp figures that compare what has been sold to the prices. the problem is there are differing reasons. it is not just the price of used cars, it is the fact there are fewer available for keeps people from buying stuff. speaking of prices, it looks like ppi comes in hotter than expected. .8% on the month. the core is up .7%, which puts the year-over-year at 6.6%.

that is a record high since the series was changed in the early part of the century. the core is up 5.3%. significant increases in producer prices. one other, empire manufacturing drops a little bit. 17.4. still growth but not as much as it was. 24.3. price indexes in the empire numbers rollover, but they are still high. tom: we came off a little bit on equities, we come back. to meet it is sort of stagflation. romaine: potentially. you're basically unchanged for the major futures. i'm curious, when you get a read restart as a consumer activity decline, which was not unexpected, but you start to see the prices go up, at what point

does that reconcile itself and you start to see inflation back down? michael: that will be over a couple of months and it will be category by category. we will see changes in the used car price numbers reasonably soon, because more cars will start coming on the lots as the chip shortage ends and people can buy more cars and rental companies will get more in their fleet. airline fares will probably start leveling off, especially as business picks up. tom: let me know when that happens. michael: it will be over a little bit of time. retail sales figures for april, the total is $409 billion. that is down from 483 in may, or from $623 billion in march. that is fading stimulus checks. tom: brilliant, michael mckee.

thank you so much for that great reporting. joseph song joins, working with bank of america as their u.s. economist. thank you for joining us. i like the bank of america tweets. gdp numbers you go from first quarter of prosperity to the boom, little bit of an adjustment in the second quarter. what is the clarity you and michelle meyer have on third-quarter gdp? joseph: thank you for having me. we are still very bullish on the u.s. economy. we are still looking for 7% growth this year. today's retail sales report was on the weaker side, but we are expecting that. we were expecting negative prints for all of the major aggregates. we still see strength for the consumer. everything outside of retail sales grew 6% on a month-to-month basis. all the spending is happening on the service side. we saw a lot of strength in may

around memorial day with lodging , travel, restaurant spending picking up momentum. early in june we are seeing that carried through. tom: you go through june 3, i have question marks for radio and tv. how you frame up q3? is it a better tone than where you were 90 days ago? joseph: we do not think the strength we have seen in the second quarter will continue, will be sustained at the extraordinary levels. it will stop in a bit but it will still be well above trend. there is more fiscal aid coming online in q3 with the child tax credit. a lot of middle to lower income households will have more dollars to spend. lisa: let's talk about the pendulum of stagflation. whether people are less inclined to spend as prices go up.

are we seeing signs of that or is this data completely irrelevant based on the changing of the composition of spending? joseph: mike is correct and that it is tough to suss out demand and supply right now. there is probably some effect with higher prices in the good sector, but when we look at our card data, real spending is still up double digits relative to 2019. even as there is -- even as there is some softening in good the good sector, clearly the softening is over to areas where there is strong demand. romaine: as we look at may numbers, we should point out the april numbers to get revised higher on the month over month number. we were pretty much flat on the previous reading. that has been revised up 1.9%. i am curious, when you look the numbers we had on the retail side, the retail sales side and the comedown we are having now, how much are you factoring in the government support as a potential pullback of that

support, meaning expanded unemployment benefits and i guess you can fold in some of the fiscal stimulus that may or not be coming down the pipe? joseph: that is partially in our slow down in q3. as the unemployment insurance gets pullback, you will see more workers. they are entering a labor market that is very hot and wages are starting to climb higher. there may not be such a fiscal cliff where they are losing their benefits and not sing the same comparable wage level. they might be substituting benefits for wages. income may soften a bit from here on out but we still are very constructive on the consumer and the household balance sheets. romaine: unfortunately that circles be back to the glass half-empty scenario, where if those wage pressures continue higher, that does pull people back.

do we have to then start talking about those inflationary pressures and what kind of drag that might mean for economic activity? joseph: yes. in the fall we think the labor supply constraints will start to ease. the higher wages we are seeing today will not continue to keep climbing higher. will reach an equilibrium where there are more workers into labor market as unemployment insurance expires. childcare has been a major issue during the pandemic and we have heard from a lot of major school districts they will go back traditional in person learning. childcare will be baked for a lot of parents. we think that will lead to a greater supply the labor market, and that will leave a temporary cooling effect on wages which will keep inflation well above -- tom: joseph song with bank of america. very appreciated.

romaine, you are working on it, i was working on it, noting revisions on retail sales are better than good. that washes out the bloom we have on present retail sales for may. the markets disassociate, with spx and dow fractionally doing better than the nasdaq 100. that is a change in the last 12 hours. romaine: you have to start asking where the money is going, where is the spending going? if there is money to be spent, is it going to some of those more discretionary items, or is it just going to those necessities? food, gas, housing? joseph: i am struggling -- lisa: i am struggling to understand these numbers and the size of the revision. it was originally 0%, revised up to almost 1%. the messiness of the data speaks to the inability to read through . people are looking at specific components. increasingly the headline numbers are not going to tell

the story. just as we were hearing about earlier, it will be the individual components that will drive people's views. tom: i look at the things we are looking at, and maybe i would look at what bryce baxter wrote for bloomberg, and they talk about the summer camp stampede. how do you account for summer camp inflation? lisa: it is the deflation of everything else he will not buy. you will be at home with a bottle of jack. [laughter] tom: carl weinberg was heated about this this morning. inflation is aggregate number. some things are up, some things are down. romaine: when you cut a check for camp, you are not cutting a check for something else. lisa: yes. does it funnel into services? do we get paid more? we will talk all about this, we

will talk about summer camp with peter cecchini. he will have a lot to say about summer camp bills and perhaps the bar bill as well. not seeing a lot of action in markets. tom: thank you so much. the vix 16.60. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it is a trade dispute that is lasted 17 years. now the u.s. and the eu have agreed to a five-year truth in a fight over aircraft subsidies to airbus and boeing. that battle led to the sides imposing tariffs on exports. the u.s. trade representative says the tariffs will be suspended as long as the terms of the agreement are upheld. the european union is set to lift travel restrictions for u.s. residents as soon as this week. bloomberg has learned the u.s. will be added to a white list of countries for which

non-essential travel to the eu is allowed. that will be abused airlines such as lufthansa and air france -- that will be a boost to airlines such as leptons and air france. president biden said he will tell the russian leader at their meeting tomorrow that it is in his interest to change the perception of him. he warns that if alexei navalny dies, it would be a tragedy that would hurt relations with the rest of the world. a bipartisan group of 10 senators working on a compromise infrastructure plan and keeping the idea of indexing gasoline tax to inflation. the white house is opposed. the senate has not released details of its plan as lawmakers are finding problems bridging partisan differences. apple is facing renewed scrutiny in washington. the issue, the companies compliance with secret trump era subpoenas. they rebuild data on more than

100 people, including house lawbreakers -- house lawmakers. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> for the back scenes were not ubiquity's, we had to deal with that reality. now they are.

if you can go to a restaurant in new york city you can come into the office, and we want you in the office. our position is we want people to be vaccinated. well over 90% of our employees and offices are vaccinated. tom: someone say the executive the decade for global wall street. mr. gorman has surprised all at morgan stanley. i believe that was the act of the riot being read yesterday by mr. gorman. romaine: if you can go to a restaurant you can go into the office, and that seems to be the tone amongst a lot of bosses. tom: it'll be a really interesting evolution over the coming days. we have a busy number of minutes. we are waiting with david westin to speak to the secretary of commerce. an extremely important conversation come up tickly of the death of tariffs --

important conversation, particularly up the death of tariffs. barry ritholtz joins us. i saw you in a restaurant in new york on friday, or maybe saturday. does that mean you are back to the office? barry: i was not in the city this weekend. i was enjoying the suburbs, the pool, the beach. we officially reopened our office in may. tom: what was the pushback you got? sec. raimondo: the first day we were open -- barry: the first day we were open we expected four people to show up, and 20 people showed up, including a staff member from chicago. it was a big lovefest. we have been unofficially open since last year because we have a lot of staff members that live in small apartments walking distance to the office and have felt like they were in prison. they said can we please go back

to the office if we follow protocols and we said why not? a change of scenery and a little elbow space. we never had more than three or four people in the office over the past year. in is starting to pick up and now we are seeing 5, 6, seven people in the office at a time. everybody's vaccinated, everybody knows the rules, everybody is respectful. romaine: what about the other folks you interact with? are they looking for the facetime? barry: not yet. when we launched in 2013 we were a national company, but with a small handful of employees. it is funny. everybody has discovered screen share and facetime and google hang out, and now zoom. this is 15-year-old technology. this has been around for a long time. the past year has been a proof of concept for big companies that now recognize maybe we do

not need everybody in the office monday through friday nine to five. that does not make sense. as for prospective clients, nobody has said we are dying to come into the office to see you. i suspect that will started trickling in the fall. new york is very vaccinated. new york city even more so. when we hit 60%, 70% fully vaccinated rate, people are going to be much more comfortable traveling and having business meetings. romaine: new york city doing well, right around the 70% rate based on what officials are telling us. there are still culture issue in finance with regards to the idea you need to be present if you will make it. the idea you need to be at your desk, you need to be there early , and you need to be in the face of your boss and clients if you expect to succeed. you think there has been any dent in that culture because of the pandemic? barry: tell me how all the ceo

of the company is and i will tell you what their views are on returning to office at working from home. it is clearly a generational issue. the great secret of the work from home pandemic is it was really good for corporate productivity and work. companies got many more hours out of their employees because there was no commute, there was no showering or shaving. people were answering emails at all hours, they were doing work whenever they could, there was no separation between home life and work life. that accrued to the benefit of companies. tom: i've been watching a lot of baseball this year and liberty mutual is a big supporter of major league baseball. they have the great scene where the guys are on the barbecue and the wife says can we talk about

something besides the office? you mentioned is is -- you mentioned it is a generational thing. we are all fixated on our jobs. it is the american way. barry: depends on the career. if you're looking at restaurant and hotel and that sort of industry, they are having a hard time filling those jobs because they are hard work, they are not high pay. it is very often tipped driven. you have no idea what you will make. it makes budgeting difficult. for most people it is not a career. a lot of people have said i to figure out what i need to do and it is not waiting tables. the quits rate is at an all-time high, meeting people with full-time jobs are saying thanks but no thanks, i will do something on my own, whether it is a startup gate or working as

a contractor or whatever it is, they want to control over their life, over their powers, over their work. that is every bit as important, especially to white-collar workers, as wages. romaine: -- tom: thank you so much. barry ritholtz with bloomberg opinion. maybe it is a new york centric theme, but it is around the nation, this dynamic of how we will work out of the pandemic. we got the economic data and i guess now it is onto the fed. romaine: it is. all eyes looking at what they will say tomorrow. how powell will communicate what the policy is but more importantly whether they have been persuaded by some of this "messy data." the bedded seems to be that there will not be a major change. they have to update those forecast. it'll be interesting to see what they say going forward. tom: and what the companies say.

the first look we will see to see the earnings dialogue in june as well. romaine: vertically out of the banks. what they've say will dictate a lot of what the street feels. tom: let's do a data check. it has been an interesting screen. i will call a very subtle flip, where the nasdaq has eased off and spx and dow doing fractionally -- these are little nuance. the vix up to 16.62. maybe befuddlement and bewilderment is a better word for what we see on the retail revision higher and a challenge to this month's retail sales. the real yield does next to nothing. the 10 year yield 1.50%. romaine: the dollar holding steady. keep an eye on commodities seeing a little bit of a bid. tom: much coming up.

scheduled, the secretary of commerce with david westin. then we will talk to the one bringing in the bacon in the new york city mayoral race. look for that they are today. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

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lisa: looking for direction after day after day of record highs. from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro.

>> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: we begin with the big issue. investors betting on a policy field recovery. >> finally markets are trusting the fed. >> the market is telling us inflation is transitory. >> the fed is going to keep things status quo. >> we are seeing it at all corners. >> you can see tech outperform since the first hot print inmate. >> we are at or near record highs in the u.s.. >> stocks and bonds rallying. >> i am surprised we've seen a rally in markets. >>