♪ >> good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. i'm manus cranny. these are stories setting your agenda. president biden and putin meet in geneva. on the docket, a highly anticipateded summit. the subject, cyberattacks and arms control.

inflation still seen. and the plot. running out of steam. citi joins jpmorgan warning of a hit to trading revenue. it has been a year of anti-climatic fomcc meetings. mr. powell has the upper hand in terms of volatility and the bank of america's statement saying we are fully primed for risk, growth, transitory inflation. let's hope it is that. good morning, annemarie. >> good morning 378 that is what many are expecting out of this meeting in geneva between president vladimir putin and president joe biden. it begs the question if everyone is skeptical what can be achieved from these two

countries. if relations are at an all-time loy low, why have a meeting at all. the two things that i'm looking out for, arms control. the treaty ending on august 24, 2026 and getting to a level of relations that maybe won't get any worse. >> yeah, they set the stage. this run-up to this theater in geneva. it is very much about not giving pute than press conference. we'll talk about why this is and what biden really wants. he has been waiting 50 years for this five hours of head-to-head. how are the markets this morning? >> it is the first time he will see him face-to-face since he was v.p. in 2011. it is about powell when it comes to the markets.

we are just below 1. 5, the level we have been hovering. as you mention, a holding pattern as we wait for the fed decision today. brent crude trucking ever so closely towards $75 a barrel. we have quite a draw down of u.s. inventories yesterday. the vaccine pickup around the world and demand increasing and we still have an opec deal in place. potentially saudis are heading that. you have the dollar lower against ruble. part of this could be a little bit of a higher move to the oil price. also maybin vestors are expecting a little bit of a higher bar. a little bit of hope that something more positive could come out of this meeting today in geneva. >> yes. maybe that is. maybe they have guided the bar so low that our expectations are vet. let's talk about that.

biden plans to warn as we understand the leader of russia that, the u.s. will respond to actions that conflict with the national interests when they have this face-to-face meeting in a few hours time. my co-host to have middle east show has traveled overnight. he is live for us on the ground of geneva. well done. long trip. set the expectations for us. >> good morning. the meeting is likely to lost four to five hours and take place not far from where our vantage point is. when i flew in a few hours ago, it was a fascinating sight at the airport because we came in on the 777 and then airport, the geneva airport is one of the biggest in the world is kind of overwhelmed by russians and u.s. aircraft so we had to take a couple of rounds until we found our slot. in terms of expectations, i want

to set the scene little bit. it is crucial to get that bigger picture. at the end of the day, going into this, the expectations and the relationship is tense. what they are looking to get out of this, the russians looking to get the conversation going just to make sure it doesn't get any worse and on the american side, it is really a story about trying to reinforce the position on the ransom ware attacks. the tensions of ukraine over nato and the heavy hand of some of the domestic opposition in russia. is it going to be an historic meeting like what we saw between gorbachev and reagan in 1958? no. at best, a resumption of services and diplomatic ties which is important for investors and business. guys? >> the optics being managed

carefully between these two countries. we have seen this whole week biden and putin trying to get an o.j. each other. there is going to be no joint press conference at the end of this. an hour vladimir putin really relishes in these moments to be standing next to global leaders. why no joint press conference? >> well, basically the thinking is we understand from officials on the u.s. side that is mr. biden is at the end of an eight-day whirlwind tour and has had a lot of meetings and travel and he is 10 years older than mr. putin. they see that as a potential source of vulnerability so they are more comfortable keeping the two separate, as you mentioned, mr. putin, he is going to be looking to pounce on any chance to get the on ticks right to sell this to the russian population and make use of any gaffes that could come up as a

result of a joint press conference which they are going to be holding separately. we understand mr. biden is going to go first. a remake of the 1961 showdown between cruz chevy and kennedy. we'll have to wait -- khruschev and kennedy. >> is that something which still has the impact from the u.s. towards russia? we have seen joe biden move a little bit on some of the insurance contracts on in order stream. -- nord stream. where are we with this? >> the russian economy is in a relatively good place. oil prices a two-year high. mr. putin is arriving at these meetings a bit more confident than let's say two or three years ago when oil prices were at an entirely different level. government coffers have been

refilled. we saw the u.s. put sanctions in april on russia, the russians took it in stride and were not necessarily worked up about that. there is an increase in capital flows. there is the big even question around the appetite of the russian side for any clean energy and alternative fuels. they reinforce their position that their priority is fossil fuels, natural gas. that's where they are investing. at the moment it is working out well for them. whether that is going to be spend that the long-term is an entirely different question. guys? >> an economy enslaved to the oil you have to think going into this meeting, $75 on brentz maybe giving a little bit of an umph. thank you so much.

today's big market story, the fed. joining us is ed smith. thank you so much. set the scene for us today with the fomc and jay powell speaking. transitory inflation doesn't match what they would need to do pivot on their asset purchases and -- what is the risk of the fed not acting quick enough because they have this narrative set in place? >> good morning. i think there is a risk that the fed could not act quick enough. i think that is a risk for 2022, not 2021. we think inflation is likely to be transitory. let me be specific by what we mean by transitory. some commentators are vague. it will not be back down to 2%

by the end of year. that is pretty much impossible unless we get deflation. we think it will head back down to 2% by the end of 2022. the fed has lots of reasons to continue with easing monetary policy because it has a june mandate and as we have heard, from powell, they are still looking at measures of unemployment which are still a long way above where we were prepandemic. the unemployment rate is still over 9% if you include the people that have dropped out of the labor force. there is a risk that the fed actually -- but that is next year, not this year. >> the management survey of the bank of america. investors are bullishly positioned trgrothse.

transitory inflation. they want to be long commodities. i'm drawn to the taper. do you think it can be or is there risk of an equity correction when this taper finally is given birth so to speak? it is much talked about, isn't it? >> many investors are asking will tapering be a market moving event. we don't think it will be. think

the original taper tantrum. it took market pretty much by surprise. the fed claims it is talking about tapering. it is possible that earlier tapering could cause a bit of a selloff but the way we see it from an allocations point of view is that the risk of a 10% correction, they happen almost every year. trying to time them is highly difficult. our main job is to try and look for the risk, as corrections turn to something more severe. something that would take longer. we don't think it is such a well telegraphed event. we don't think it is likely to do anything more than that. >> a mild correction but not a full blown bear market. we'll return to you in just a moment. ed smith our guest host this morning on markets. coming up, waiting for the china data to dump across the screen this morning. the recovery is seen stabilizing. record growth in q 1. we discuss. this is bloomberg.

♪

manny: welcome today break europe. i'm manus cranny. let's get you up to speed with your news. anne bell joins us from hong kong. >> thanks, manus. the two largest u.s. states are fully reopen. the new york governor andrew cuomo has lifted the state's pandemic mandates saying 70% of the adult population has been given at least one dosor the covid vaccine and california that is lifted limits.

mckenzie scot has given away another 2.7 billion to variety charities bringing it to 8.5 billion. scott who holds a 4% stake in amazon following her divorce from jeff

she added that it would be better if dispropro-portionate wealth were not concentrated in a small number of hands. israel launched air strikeses on gaza. violence comes two days after bennett took office ending netanyahu's 12 years in power. a conflict last month killed 243 people in gaza and 12 in israel. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quick take powered my bimore than 2300 journalists and analysts. this is boob. annmarie: thanks so much. recap your fist word news. the meeting is not the only thing to come out of president biden's trip to europe. another big thing is the u.s. getting the e.u. onboard when it comes to issues and tackling china. take a listen. >> i think that with respect to china, we will continue to do business with them. and that is in our interest. we have a tremendous amount -- to china. that is important for american businesses and american jobs. we need to agree to where we can find agreement and do business in all possible ways with china. however, we also have to protect americans and american workers, the american national security. i think the best thing we can do in that regard is invest in america.

you know, the best thing we can do is for congress to pass president biden's minute jobs package so we can invest in american job training, infrastructure, semiconductors and also to work in concert with our allies. democratic countries are writing the rules of the road around technology. it is complex. i think the most important thing to do is run faster in america. are our ally countries. >> the c.e.o. of boeing wants to run faster specifically making planes for china. is that an area where you might get the most bang for the buck when it comes to jobs if you could open up in china? >> we're working on it. i have spoke on the dave calhoun and hopefully today is a good day for him with the new announcement. it is not just airplanes. it is china is a big market. we have to make sure american

companies can do business there and export there. >> finally, talking about tiktok we chat. can you give us a sense of a timeline on that review and when you might reimpose or extend ban that came from the trump administration. >> the administration is doing a top to bottom review. i don't have a specific timeline per se. it is all part of the strategy of protecting america, national security interest and economic interest when as we need to, being defensive. but really an everyone sizz cyst on playing offense. investing in america. growing your own economy. maintaining our tech logical edge. making critical supplies in america.

manny: that's the u.s. commerce secretary there speaking exclusively with david westin. coming up, we'll get back to our guest host and dig into some of the breaking news headlines coming across the terminal from china. this is bloomberg. ♪

manny: bloomberg day break. ed smith is our guest this morning on markets. we just heard from the u.s. side on the upcoming trade discussion. ed, i'm drawn to what china has announced this morning. they are going to release reserve copper, aluminum and zinc. another rounched trying to stamp out to inflation spiral.

how important a marker in the ground is the inflation narrative on the global inflation stage? ed: well, we don't think commodity prices are actually a huge determinant of global inflation. there has been a specifically insignificant and in fact negative correlation between commodity prices and consumer prices, negative -- they do feed through to input costs to manufacturers and we have seen rates go through the roof but that don't necessarily float to consumer prices. we're not surprised that china has taken such an action. this is a few weeks back. it made some more measures to cap commodity speculation and cap prices there, input cost

lails more important than larger manufacturing sector but the background is that china is stick with a regime of tightening credit policy and speculation in financial markets, even easing back upon some of its fiscal spending because it has its eye back on financial stability risks and that is important for any emerging market investor. the china tightening cycle is one of the reasons why we have been underweight emerging markets for much of the year. annmarie: when you look at this trip biden has in europe, it has been all about china and cornwall getting china into the communique, in natea 10 times talking about china, being able to control european allies and talk tough on china. you look at the data. buying of treasuries, the

appetite is continually growing insatiable. do you think this financial data shows that diplomatic tensions at some points, ed, may ease? ed: it is certainly it no in china's interest to flare up tensions to the point where treasury markets go haywire. i think we can expect tensions to ease. biden is very, very different to flump so many ways but not on china. not on trade in general actually. biden's proposed made in america tax credit, the anti-china national security measures the democrats have been pushing through at the moment. these are things trump touted but never actually did. sure biden's approach will be less maverick, more rules-based. but i think we can expect still some degree of hostility between china and u.s. as you say, it was all over the

g-7 in cornwall. manny: ed, europe, we have seen a real -- eight days in a row. i'm looking at my data here. european equities, up eight days in a row. the longest winning streak since 2019. we know in part it is reopening. a lot with the exposure exposure. i lean into your data. you like and you haven't liked it for many years. how bullish on europe are you? ed: so we are -- we have a larger weight on europe since i can remember. we don't actually -- we're not actually going overweight in europe because of the merging market export story because of

china's tightening. we think there was a greater risk of them overtightening than reversing course. we like europe at the moment because it builds in a above it inflation protection. we said earlier, base cases for inflation to be transitory. there is a degree of uncertainty around inflation. in europe, the outside exposure to energy and stocks likely to perform well as global yields and global inflation rises yet we think europe is a good place to be. profit margins are more protected domesticically because of labor shortages and they are worrying people in the u.s. but they are not evident in the region. annmarie: thank you so much for that, ed smith. head of asset allocation research and just ahead on the program, president biden and putin meet in geneva.

on the docket, climate change and arms control. we have a deep dive of what to expect from the summit next. this is bloomberg. ♪ wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. over the next 10 years, comcast is committing $1 billion to reach 50 million low-income americans with the tools and resources they need to be ready for anything. i hope you're ready. 'cause we are. ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction.

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♪ annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. this is day break europe. here is what you need to know. president biden and putin meet in geneva on and the docket on this summit, climate control, arms control. inflation is likely seen as

transitory. eyes turn to tapering. and the party may be over. if city joins jpmorgan in a hit to trading revenue. 90 minutes away from the start of european equity trading. a big day. one on markets for powell. for me, it is the gio politics of this region now. given the fact that president joe biden will be in geneva meeting with putin. i covered in helsinki the trump-putin meeting. i have to say the stone wildly different. manny: let's extrapolate on that. when you say the tone is very different, i think piece of theater this is in this geneva is very controlled. the european side from the family side is very much about not giving puten the opportunity to grandstand at home. i wonder what success at this, shall we call it a day taunt?

i wonder what success looks like. tell me what you think is a success for biden. annmarie: restarting talks on the nuclear talks. that restart treatedy set to expire on february 26. that's a big deal. bier in the middle of 2021. lots of discussions around the pandemic and covid but this is something that is over a cloud basically over these two countries. the other i think would be a success that is just not relations getting any worse. going this meeting, both presidents as well as the nateo s.g. saying relations are at an all time war from the cold war. you think about what is going on with navalny and cyberwarfare.

i don't think we'll get there yet. manny: you go back to reagan and gorbachev. it could be a build-up to a long lead time to deliver rained success. i lean into powell. we look at the markets. let's have a look at could it bethat we have this year of nonexistent volatility on fomc. here we are. it would be possible that you see the balloons are tapering. rising up. bank of america, says we could be positions for permanent growth. transition inflation and a peatful fed taper. to the euro stoxx 50rks we just had a call. they are bullish for the first time in many years. brentz is on the board. there is a draw down in inventory. of course, calling $100 oil. dollar-ruble there for the

summit angst ankst. let's talk about that. if biden and putin, they have the summit, the u.s. will respond to issues that conflict with the national interests when they meet face-to-face. it is in geneva. michael is on the ground flown in overnight to cover the summit. the latest. good day. >> so we're still waiting for the beginning of the deliberations. that is going to start later this morning. it is going to take four to five hours. it is going to happen in this gorgeous place from the 18th century. you wonder are they going to have breakfast? i know you're big on breakfast. they are not going to have any breakfast. mr. biden and putin are not going to share any meals at all. that gives you a sense of how much tension will see.

the expanding negotiation. they are going to be holding some preliminary discussions as well as to kind of flesh out some of the different topics which ke talked about from cybersecurities to geopolitical hot spots along the line of lib yarks syria and the ukraine squel. the tension is very much fement here on the ground as well. the whole city is basically secured with additional personnel. 1,000 additional people have been brought in and pretty much at every juncture in what is a very cute downtown geneva, you have a bit of a presence to make sure everything flows as planned. annmarie: they are not having any meals together and also a lot of people are going to see who arrives first. president putin is notorious for being late. even the pope was not immune to that. these two heads ofst of state have known each other for a long time.

it was 10 years ago the last time they awe saw each other face-to-face. what is the back story they bring to the summit today? >> they met last in 2011. a different world. not just gio politically. at the time mr. biden was vice president and mr. putin was prime minister. in the runup to this, a lot of punches have been thrown. mr. biden creg with the characterization that mr. putin is a killer in an interview with an american broadcaster and mr. putin saying it takes one to know one. they both bring in foreign policy experience and have both handled all kinds of criess is. -- crises. we have a young kennedy coming in against an experienced heavyweight contender, kruschev. here we have two heavingt fighters. to heavyweight fighters.

manny: there is no joint press conferences. this is perhaps a blow to the p.r. for putin on the russian side. i'm curious. i know we have an american on the show but how do you think it is going to be perceived at home and in the u.s.? >> from what we're hearing so far from the feedback that we have gotten from the voices that have child in, there is quite a bit of criticism coming through that mr. biden is focusing on this whirlwind tour abroad instead of prioritizing matters back home. there is still a long list that needs to be taken care of in terms over the recovery from the covid-19 impact, the problems at the border with mexico, so the republicans, this is really a chance to nitpick the whole process around these distributions in the coming hours and score any political points that would set them up of

course well in the next year or two as we prepare for the next round of elections. guys? annmarie: thanks it is more like 7 1/2. let's stay with this story. president putin and president biden meeting today. joining us is a partner at g.p.w.. she said the objective is for biden to reassert that america is back and that the u.s. will become a leader again in international arena. that has been his whole schtick. i want to pick up where we left are yousef there. this is biden's first year in office. why give pute an sit down? -- putin a sit down? >> absolutely. the u.s. and biden administrations, for the u.s. to come back and be a world leader

we need to have engagement. isolating rivals what we saw under trump is not answer effective way to engage and we see that the u.s. is losing the gio political battle. we need to start engageing with these leaders and start having dialogue and stop speaking to our allies and also our rivals like putin and china. manny: you could say that the world has stopped looking to america for leadership on foreign policy and that is maybe biden's opportunity. you would say that this is an opportunity for america and russia to lay down their red lines, define the biggest red line for biden going into this and putin. >> so i think for biden it is really about reemphasizing what he believes are u.s. liberal values. he is going to -- ukraine is very close to his heart.

he will reaffirm that russia should not overly interfere in the you crained then again, we're going to have putin with his own familiar list of grievances from nato expansion and anterussian action by ukrainian authorities. another clear red line is cyberwarfare. something also very close to biden's heart. the democrats lost the election in 2016. the russian interference in the election was a major issue. but again, this is a clear line for putin as well. russia wants to be a leader in cyberwarfare and it can't compete on the economic front or on the defense front in the world now and it really wants to win the misinformation game. so we're unlikely to see any real breakthrough on cyberwarfare. undoubtedly we're going to see biden with a return to homohuman

right where is that disappeared under trump. they are certainly going to bring up the navalny issue and the treatment of navalny. this is a domestic issue. just last week putin has -- russian government named the navalny organization as a terrorist organization showing anyone who is associated with this can go to jail. another signal to the u.s., do not interfere in domestic issues. annmarie: and he made that point just this week over at nbc. he would not utter navalny's name. just a little bit more helicopter view on what is going on. the biden administration came to europe and really was punching again and again about china. that is the main focus. having this meeting with putin, does this distract from their focus on beijing? >> russia is part of china

problem as well. what we have seen, russia has gained a lot of momentum and strength and negotiating power over the past four years by saying if you don't want to do business with us, if you're going to put sanctions on us, we have china to partner with. we have seen them strike a number of deals in the energy sector. they are trying to dedollarize its economy. putin saying to bind he would be dollarizing the rainy day fund and this is in part turning -- we have the ablete ability to turn to china. in some ways dealing with russia is also dealing with the china problem. manny: what does world need from this? you look at the u.k. they have suffered attacks at the hands of the russians. there have been accusations of political interference around the world. does this world need this summit to take a step forward?

>> absolutely. i mean, the major breakthrough of this meeting is not so much the actual details and the content on specific issues. but the fact that this meeting is taking place. this is a breakthrough about re-establishing some dialogue, ensuring that relations do not deteriorate further and that there is some form of communication around potential cyberissues, ukraine. when you have a no dialogue issue with russia as we saw what happened last month there is serious risk of war. we had russian troops on the border of ukraine and biden about to send in a warship. that was a very uncertain situation. being able to -- for these two leaders to sit down at the table and have a clear discussion, lower the political temperature, unlike what happened in helsinki, everyone benefits including europe. manny: thank you.

partner at g.b.w. on your assessment on the upcoming five-hour marathon meeting between presidents biden and putin. let's get to the news. >> thanks, manus. the two largest u.s. states are fully reopened. new york govern of andrew cuomo lifted the state's pandemic mandate saying 70% of the adult population has been given at least one dose over the covid vaccine and california lifted the capacity limits and social distancing and removed most mask mandates for vaccinated people. a full reopening with 1.5 million lottery awarts for 10 vaccinated residents. israel fired on gaza after balloons were sent across the border. it comes two days after bennett took over as israel's prime

minister ending benjamin netanyahu's term in power. citigroup c.f.o. mark mason signaled the revenue from the tradings operations will likely foul around 30% from a year ago. this as wall street braces for the recent pandemic driven boom to run out of steam after jamie dimon warned about the trading boom slowing. >> revenues are likely to be down in the low to single digit range. we see strong m&a performance. we feel good about the dialogue in investment banking. >> global news 24 hours a day on air and onbloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

annmarie? annmarie: thanks so much. the e.u. is set to lift travel kurbs. next month i could be flying dulles airport. this is bloomberg. ♪

manny: it is day break europe. i'm cranzphran dubai. the european union set to lift travel restrictions for u.s. residents as soon as today. a return to normal despite concerns over the spread of variants. so big news. it shows you it is good to talk

to one another when it comes to global relations and travel. good morning. >> good morning, manus. how are you doing? manny: i'm good. >> at the moment, it looks like the u.s. is going to be on the e.u.'s white list which will allow people from the u.s. to travel to the e.u. for nonessential reasons. remember for the last year and a half travel between the u.s. and europe has been virtually off limits for most people unless they have a pressing urgent exemption. what proposed the changes to those rules, the u.s. citizens and being allowed into europe for the first time for nonessential reasons. annmarie: what about the very, very lucrative transatlantic j.f.k. east coast to heathrow. when is that going to be reopened? >> that's still a question mark.

the u.k. has said they are talking about setting up allowing and opening up transatlantic travel. it is the most lucrative air market in the world with a lot of premium seats and business travel prepandemic. airlines are desperate to get the sector going again while the u.k. and u.s. still remain a question mark. europe looks like it is moving ahead and actually getting started on that. at the same time, it is important to remember that the u.s. has still not lifts curbs on europeans and people from the u.k. traveling to the u.s. that is a question mark when that will come into play. annmarie: my flight to new york about a month ago was empty but the flights back was very much so packed. tracking the thransflick atlantic route. thank you so much for joining us. just ahead, citi joins jpmorgan

morgan on trading revenue. coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning. just an hour away from the start of european eck cities trading. citigroup shares dropped yesterday after the c.e.o. mark mason signaled that revenue from the bank's trading operation will probably fall around 30% from a year ago. this is wall street bracing from this party of the pandemic-driven boom to hit a little bit of pause. dani, yesterday you were talking about jpmorgan. this morning is citi. who is next? dani: it is probably all of them in reyalts.

it is likely every single bank is going face this drop. to be clear, this drop we're talking about is stark from last year. volatility was so high. that really fueled this trading revenue boom but it is kind of going back to normal. part of the reason we're seeing such a negative reaction is jpmorgan, it is not just trading revenue they are warning on. it is loan growth that is not getting back to normal. you still have a consumer that has a lot of savings benefiting from the stimulus. not only is trading going to look bad but we'll not see loan growth. manny: we just had a monster bond offering from the e.u. the bids for this have been vast. some didn't get fees from it. who are they and why? >> 10 banks barred from participating in these auctions and i want to say yesterday's auction going out without a

hitch shows that the power is in the hands to have e.u. they can say these banks, a who's who of global banks, bank of america, jpmorgan, barclays, among others. you had antitrust transgressions in past. you need to prove to us that you have taken the steps to remedy them. until you have done that, you cannot participate in our bond auctions. it is about 10% of fee revenue generation for these banks in europe. it is hard to see how they can replace that as a source and it really has the potential to shake up the lead table for who has the most in terms of european bond auction bids here. manny: that gravy train hasn't run out yet. there will be a few more bond issues to come. there is always a point of redemption. you get these moments to redeem yourself.

annmarie. the risk that the guy that wrote the report after a year of anti- climatic fomc's, it is a -- annmarie: the risk is what if we have a 2013 taper tantrum? isn't that the biggest risk to the market now? you were a bond trader. manny: yes. back in the 1990's. they didn't flag everything and tell you. there is a rate hike. the bond market implodes and then you get rates hikes through that era. they couldn't conscious the unfolding of a bond market like that. two meltdowns i never recovered from that margin call. annmarie: good luck. good luck to you and your colleagues.

10-year notes, i think we're hovering around at 1.5%. the other big thing of course is the fed. are they going to maintain the transitory inflation narrative and putin and biden. have you heard? they are meeting in geneva. more on that coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

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anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards. market edward -- mark cudmore joins us now this hour. the cash trade is less than one hour away. here are your top headlines. president biden and president putin meet in geneva. climate change, cyberattacks, and arms control.