>> we are in a boom. there are some supply-side dislocations that are confusing, but growth will be strong. >> what is the fed going to do and how does that play into everything else? >> if anything worries me about inflation, it is expectations. >> these realities that all of these things go away, you just don't know how long they take to go away. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. we welcome you to "bloomberg surveillance" on an unusual wednesday. lisa abramowicz as well. a fed meeting, world leaders meeting. let's go right to the fed meeting. is it going to be a snooze fest? lisa: it is not going to be a snooze fest. if they don't say something, it

will be news as well. it will raise questions about how aware they are of the financial stability risks that could be building and the inflationary pressures that many people are seeing. tom: we will try to get through the show without the dreaded g-word. the word is transitory. again, will it be a snooze fest? matt: i don't think either one is going to be a snooze fest, although i cannot imagine what president biden can do to get the upper hand over president putin. on the other hand, the fed could clearly start to talk about tapering and start to talk about making a plan to deal with inflation today. the problem is no one thinks they are going to as evidenced by the 10 year yield. tom: we will get to the data in a moment.

lisa, we have a remarkable stasis of the 10 year yield around a 149, 150 pivot point. the real yield deteriorating in the last 24 hours. lisa: to edify this idea of the amazing demand for securities and longer dated bonds. yesterday, the 20 year option from the treasury coming strong with dealers sticking down, the smallest proportion ever in the history of this fairly new tinde r from the u.s. treasury department. tom: i want to show you the images from geneva. this is steeped in the history of geneva and nestled very close to france as well. almost completely encircled by france and the history of geneva. this is in geneva, a private residence until 100 or so years ago, gifted by the families to the city of geneva and it really is a religious landmark. hope all the six greeted 70,000

-- pope paul the 6th greeted 70,000. symbolism today as well. help me with the dated check. red and green on the screen. the equity markets waiting to see not only what the fed will do, but what q3 will bring us. lisa: crude continues higher, making new post 2018 highs, fascinating. even though you have china saying they are trying to draw down the prices of commodities, and even releasing stockpiles of certain metals. just to give you a sense of how much this is posing a concern to certain countries looking to tamp down the interests that consumers may feel. a huge day for news. we will start with these meetings between president biden and vladimir putin of russia. what i find interesting is it is president biden's ability to

shore up support with allies. this is a sign to them, yes, we stand behind you because russia is much closer to europe than the u.s. and poses a bigger geopolitical threat to that region. it is important from an alliance standpoint for president biden to maintain status quo, but give the sign that they are behind them. janet yellen will be testifying to the senate finance committee. interesting to see what she has to say about inflation and more so taxes. she will be talking about president biden's budget. it seems less likely for democrats to push through taxes based on the pushback we are hearing on both sides of both parties. how much is she going to double down and pose a realistic proposal? to allow p.m., there is the fed rate -- 2:00 p.m., there is a fed rate decision. interesting to see how the market responds, if they do not

mention talk of tapering, how this could bleed into financial risk. how much people are looking to what that means, how much they have to taper. people looking ahead to the 2023 that some people are expecting versus the rate hikes that have been forecasted. tom: and we revisit the 10 year yield. few expected that number weeks ago. a readjustment in inflation expectations to lower yields, to say the least. that dynamic between the nominal yield and the expectation in inflation giving you that inflation-adjusted yield. on all of this wrapped around the markets, we are thrilled to start strong with eric freedman of u.s.-backed, their asset management chief investment officer. -- u.s. bank, their asset

manager chief investment officer. how do you adjust to move forward? eric: good morning. it is a really important day and you have done a good job covering it as always. we think we are in this first horizon in terms of the globe and heading toward the second horizon of what is the steady-state, when that reopening already occurs. our big point has been own stocks, have less duration of higher bond portfolio, and have exposure to real assets. is this inflation story materializing enough to get them to make a change? our report is still glass half-full, still bullish in terms of the equity side, but we think there is the risk to transmission if we see a lack of dialogue between markets. lisa: people are expecting a bring forward of the potential first rate hike.

they are looking at the dots, the projections from individual fed members as to when they see rates starting to rise. if there is a pull forward to 2023, what does that mean in terms of when tapering will start and what it will look like in composition and the amount that it comes down before raising rates? eric: we think the word that could summarize is incrementalism. the fed has an opportunity through the dot plot, but also reserves as well as reverse refill. they are -- there are things they can do to signify more incremental change than tapering or dot plots. we think that that path towards action could start with infrastrate action reserves and follow with taper. the dot plot will be front and center. that will not change our allocation decision. we still think owning short

duration carried makes a lot of bondholders right now. but they see in that dot plots could cause them to be hesitant. matt: lisa points out in her opinion calling today that fitch has just cut its expectations for bankruptcies, high-yield default, to 1% by year end. companies are paying the lowest ever rates. and this has all been propped up by the fed's really lose policy and as mohammed writes in his calling, the outcomes-based framework. if they change that, does it risk upsetting the apple cart of high-yield bonds, of low rates, of companies that have been able to get away with the borrowing they have because of small payments? eric: a very thoughtful perspective from mohammed on the topic. if we look at the distressed

cycle, it has been delayed to a point where fund managers are looking at spac's as a source of distress because high-yield is not moving right now. we do think that there is a lag in the credit cycle that is inherent with what the fed is doing. we think the credit cycle is kicked off by higher interest rates. we think there is that sort of gradual path again, but that is something that we think is inherent with what the fed is doing. we think that the cycle is pushed out another 18 to 20 four months unless we see a significant change in fed rhetoric. that could change as well, but to your point, that cycle is a function of what the fed is doing right now. tom: can you own or acquire growth right now? do you have to stay within the consensus view of value? eric: we think there are two ways of approaching growth. what is this reopening trade.

we have been planning it through midcalf, u.s. equities, one of our favorite places to be. we still think that over time, the two growth areas of the broader economy, 5, 7, 10 years our healthcare because of demographic and tax because of the activity. -- and tech because of productivity. that is the place to be. we still think that technology and healthcare are where you want to be. tom: eric freedman, thank you so much. greatly appreciated. really diving into that, coming near the entry. lisa, i look where oil is. i am surprised there is not a greater uproar about the pricing. lisa: not only that, but there is expectation among oil traders that oil is heading back to $100 per barrel, which could be more

disruptive than what we are seeing what you quoted was brent on the deputy i at $17 and $.15. how much does this bleed into consumer's reluctance to spend more? remember, when they spend more at the pump, that does bleed through to less spend on discretionary expenditures. tom: we will have to see. let me do a data check. red and green on the screen. futures flat. nasdaq gives me a little lift. the vix was a 15 level come with a bit of tension. the vix has widened out to 17.23. big dog at 40,000. the only reason matt miller is with us. he is going to buy a new motorcycle this weekend. the yield 149, out to 150. we will be watching that at 1:30 when we begin our federal reserve coverage. goldman sachs with us here in a bit. stay with us through the morning.

from lake geneva where putin will meet biden. maria tadeo is there along with our white house team as well. stay with us. from berlin, from new york, this is bloomberg. good morning. ritika: president biden plans to issue a warning to russia's president at today's meeting in geneva. according to the white house, he will tell putin that the white house will respond to actions that conflict with its national interest. the u.s. does not expect any concrete announcement. president biden wants to use the meeting to layout the circumstances in which the u.s. would retaliate and also find areas to cooperate. it is really warplanes attack sites longing to hamas in the gaza strip today. that came after an incendiary balloon launched from gaza set fires in southern israel. it has been the first attack

since israel's new government took power sunday. the first in an 11 day conflict that ended in a truce. the european central bank is expected to extend bank released by nine months that would ensure supply credit to the economy. it highlights stronger alliance won close rather than capital markets as a source of corporate financing. the white house said no deadline has been set for a compromised infrastructure package. house democrats are growing impatient. they are ready to move ahead without republicans if there is no deal by the end of next week. a bipartisan group is still trying to reach a compromise. google has won a deal to provide luxury goods giant lvmh with cloud-based intelligence solutions. the aim is to personalize experiences for customers and offer long-term growth. google will work with lvmh's individual brands and recommend

targeted products to clients. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> this process has built my

trust and my hope in the partnership with his team and the european union. in terms of my confidence level, it is very high. tom: what you need to know is the score was 98 to zero. her appointment by the senate was unanimous as our trade representative and she had a successful trip from brussels. she went back to london for further negotiations with the united kingdom as well. it is a tough tour of duty, but josh wingrove has been brave and accepted the mission to hang out at the hotel in geneva, switzerland. breakfast on the terrace. we are thrilled that our hard-working white house reporter could join us from one of the most famous hotels in the world. josh, the grandeur of all of this is great, but i could tell as we were coming into this break that you were peckish

after a wrong four or five days on the road. how is the president holding up? josh: good morning. it is a true hardship assignment here. i am struggling moment by moment. it has been a long trip. the g7 for president biden starting in u.k. and in brussels for the nato meeting which had the cease-fire announced yesterday. he entered geneva last night. all eyes will be on joe biden today and one of the questions is how will it go and how long will it go. i am feeling pretty tuckered out. that is what they make coffee for. in one hour, we might get brief comments from them or an appearance on camera off of the top of that meeting that will begin at four or five hours. then they will have the press conference. tom: is the approach of this

administration and with the abrupt change from trump, you mentioned small, is russia perceived as a small nation masquerading as a g8 country? josh: i think they view russia as a schoolyard bully. they claim everything is russia and china and they are these blind actors who are fueling the rising tide of autocracies that biden wants to muster democracy to push back against, but it really is china that is biden's focus. russia is a strategic rival. russia is more of a different case. they don't know what is going to happen. they're going to talk about biden, human rights, alexei navalny, cybercrimes. he is essentially drawing lines in the sand and it's putin

crosses those lines, we don't know what joe biden will do. we don't know what power he has to do. what if a ransomware attack comes from russia, but not the russian government? those questions will be hanging in the air tomorrow, the day after, and long after that. matt: for those watching television, we are watching the swiss president arise and for those listening on radio, we welcome you as well. josh, it is interesting that biden came from the g7 and the eu-u.s. summit, he does not have the support of all of his allies. in the face of the biggest economy in europe, angela merkel is intending to send billions of dollars to moscow to help putin finance whatever he needs to do via the nord stream 2 pipeline. in terms of the second largest army in nato, turkey is buying missile defense from the russians. here is a schoolyard bully who

has a lot of really important assets and has knocked our alliance is a little bit. can that be set right? josh: it is a great point. nord stream 2, biden has freely -- pretty much thrown in the towel. they cannot stop it at this stage. that erdogan meeting he had a couple of days ago, they said basically nothing about it. is there any sort of world where you have custody of those missiles to help smooth things over, it does not look like it. joe biden, his approach to diplomacy is kind of the same as his approach to talk to washington. he tries to avoid the public rattling. he is trying to give erdogan a little bit of room. i don't know what we will see

with vladimir putin. i think it is a different case. he is going to set some guardrails. how far they will be, i don't know. joe biden does not really -- he is not there to make friends with vladimir putin. lisa: vladimir putin, former kgb officer, arranging this meeting. it is supposed to be four hours, possibly more than that at a time when as we started this interview, joe biden is exhausted. so is everybody else based on the tour of duty that has been going on. what does vladimir putin want out of this meeting? josh: equivalency, i imagine. maybe joe biden got a better nights sleep than i did. fingers crossed, if you are his staff, if that is the case. there are concerns on the american side that a joint press conference would make joe biden look like an equal to vladimir putin when they view biden as more than putin. we are of a bigger country,

bigger economy, -- leader of a bigger country, bigger economy, what have you. both sides are pumping the brakes on accreditation -- pumping the brakes on expectations. from there, really is a question as to what will happen -- you have to think almost inevitably, he will break these guardrails that biden sets. tom: thank you for your reporting. i recommend albertine's where you can sip on wine, one of our tropical beverages. lisa: that is what you have been doing when josh was talking? researching the bars? tom: researching the bars. i find the symbolism absolutely

stunning, the idea of picking geneva. obviously with the united nations coming out of world war ii. there is so much history there of the divides of europe, the sharp separations of europe after the 17th century. lisa: the unity on a global level with the u.n.. there was this question of how much this trip is a direct message from president biden to the allies. how does he support them given the trade relationships that matt was outlining? tom: what is the take from germany on this visit? what does angela merkel want out of this meeting today? matt: i think merkel would prefer that we not talk about it. she is between a rock and a hard place. germany gives 40% of its national gas -- natural gas from russia and they are fixing to get more. tom: it is a really huge story for europe and it is not just germany with that hydrocarbon

focus as well. it is fed day in america. we are thrilled to bring you patricia mosser from columbia university. she is truly expertise on linking monetary theory into what the federal open market committee is doing. from geneva, switzerland. maria tadeo is there. stay with us.

wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things

we're gonna learn. over the next 10 years, comcast is committing $1 billion to reach 50 million low-income americans with the tools and resources they need to be ready for anything. i hope you're ready. 'cause we are. ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network.

♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone. we welcome all of you to annex were no wednesday. -- we welcome all of you on a wednesday. we are looking to speaking with diane on her thoughts of the service or to recovery. -- the service sector recovery. patricia mosser will join us in a moment. right now, the president of russia arriving to meet with president biden. this will be very different from the visit of 2018 in helsinki. it is not a boeing, it is not an

airbus. it is a russian aircraft. lisa: do you want me to comment? matt: it is highly modified. there are five separate versions of this plane, long range, wide body. it is the 96 300 pu. lisa: that is what i was going to say. tom: matt miller doing his guy johnson imitation. mr. putin, we will continue to show to you on television and radio. a beautiful day in geneva as the two leaders will do some photo opportunity here in the vicinity of 30 minutes. something in the vicinity of three seconds, we will speak with patricia mosser of columbia university. truly expert on our monetary

theory. thank you so much for joining us. is there an operative theory at the fed or are they making it up as they go? patricia: there is definitely an operative theory. it is different, or they are applying it differently than they did a couple of years ago. the fed has not hit its inflation target except for a few months for 12 years. it has been below it. for a long time in academic circles, there has been a thought that if a central bank really is that far behind, they were to get inflation up, you need to basically let the economy and inflation run hot if you need to. the idea is targeting the price level rather than the inflation rate. that is what they are doing. franken -- frankly, they have gotten more of what they wanted. tom: they certainly delivered what they want it -- what they

wanted. there is the georgia school of timberlake. there is a small school in palo alto where they talk about inflation targeting of a certain vintage. do you reflate and target or is it get that theory going and wait to see what happens? patricia: i think part of the disagreement on this and my personal views come down to where the fed is is the fed is meriting a supply shop. we did not see it for 14 months because covid was even bigger. supply shocks are tricky because they push output down and inflation up so your two goals go in opposite directions. right now, the fed has the luxury that inflation has been too for too long, allowing inflation to be over the target

and if the supply shocks are temporary, then inflation will come back down. lisa: this is the bet and a lot of people seem to say, you are right. they are buying what the fed is saying and we are confirmed that your view is the correct one. yet, there is the concern of financial risk. we have issuance at restaurant highs -- record highs. at what point does financial risk become a major concern to the federal reserve in their balance of risk to the outlook? patricia: i think that it already is a risk and the longer the rates stay really low and the longer that you do not get inflation and growth back to normal, the bigger that risk gets overtime. those risks do not diminish because you do not do anything about them. it is a risk that has to be taken if you are going to normalize things and better to do it sooner with a small amount

of inflation while the economy is growing strongly than to wait and do it later. lisa: i apologize for cutting you off, but this is the conundrum. can the fed ever normalize if normalize will disrupt the financial division -- financial stability that has been threatened by the increasing debt that will be curtailed by any fed normalization? patricia: if the fed does not normalize, that risk-taking problem is going to be bigger. that is exactly my point. it is a risk and it needs to be managed carefully and it is one of the reasons on the policy side that it is planning to go slowly because it has the luxury to go slowly. normalizing interest rates has to happen at some point. we have not seen it in 12 years and it is going to be bumpy. i have to say that right now, the financial imbalances in the private sector are not so huge that they would create a financial access.

-- a financial crisis. while the housing market is doing better and real estate markets are doing better, they are nowhere near where they were. those are always the biggest financial stability risks. on the fiscal desiccants -- fiscal deficits, they could get expensive. it is a risk that is bigger for most of the other countries in the world. it is big enough for the united states, but it is much bigger elsewhere. matt: is it possible to have fiscal deficits of this size and growing without some very serious unintended consequences to follow? we talked to peter hooper of deutsche bank last week. he pointed out that the last time we saw something approaching this, but it was not the same as this giant monetary and fiscal stimulus together with world war ii, and that was followed by inflation of 8.5% in 1946. 15% in 1947.

18% in 1948. we would not be able to stomach those numbers today. patricia: that is very true. we also do not have the economy had back then. inflation ran hotter. could we have several years of much higher inflation? yes. assuming that inflation expectations do not get out of control, that is a big assumption. that is the game and that is where we are and where we have been. if it is viewed as temporary, those things are actually good. they get interest rates in the financial sector -- they allow the economy to grow. interestingly enough, there is literature that reminds you that more inflation greases the wheel of change in the economy. we have not talked about that in 25 years of economics, but there is plenty of evidence out there that that is the case.

secondly, it allows for more flexibility for people and indeces and everybody else to move around and that is the other plus side of moderate inflation. matt: right. what is the linchpin that holds transitory inflation back from becoming something more permanent? an opinion columnist talking about the problems on the supply side may be leading to employers having to offer more money to get workers to do their jobs. meanwhile, goldman sachs with whom tom and lisa are going to speak in a little bit -- they do not see a problem with wages rising. they did not see a price-wage spiral -- is that what you call that? is that the main problem? patricia: it is, although we should be careful that real wages have been stagnant for about 25 years in the united states.

if you have productivity go up and real wages go up, that is not a problem. it is not going to create inflation. it is way to shift this year of income and labor away from capital, but it is not particularly inflationary. it is the crisis that is a problem. we are nowhere near that. i think that is actually on the risk that is years away, personally. you have to remind me what the first question was before we got into wages. matt: i was going to ask what makes inflation -- what brings it from transitory to something more serious. patricia: it is the nature of covid. let's be clear, the united states is way ahead of the rest of the world in its economic recovery. it's demand is surging and the rest of the world is still trying to get vaccines out, so they are not producing. global supply chains are kind of a mess and it may be a mess for a while until the rest of the

world catches up. but that is temporary. it is temporary, not in a weeks kind of way, but in a months and quarters kind of way. tom: thank you so much. love having you on and hope we can make this an every fed meeting occurrence. patricia mosser of columbia university. the president of russia is at geneva. waiting for him to disembark from his plane. it is so important to place in context the two nations. one of the great ways of doing this, not always accurate, is per capita gdp. to really show the movement of russia with its oil-based economy from a frontier with all of the baggage of the soviet union and such is per capita gdp. the u.s. with a truly relative cases stunning statistic worldwide. in russia, 11,600. : is -- poland is 16.

the difference is here are really quite something wrapped around russia as part of the g8 community and with sanctions pushed aside as well. lisa, it is always historic. i will sound like a broken record. it is so different than three years ago at helsinki. lisa: the relationship between president trump and prime minister putin as well as how biden is treating putin vastly different and there is a world question of the emphasis on the relationship of the allies above all else. how much will president biden cater to those friendships? tom: we will see. mr. putin's interest in this leadership position. there is domestic politics in russia. looking out into the future as well. josh wingrove and jennifer jacobs in geneva with maria tadeo. we will continue our coverage

through the morning. please stay with us and again this afternoon at 130 time, the meetings of the federal open market committee. coming up, good news on the pandemic. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. joe biden and vladimir putin will come together for what could be four hours of meetings for both the u.s. and russia, keeping expectations low in an adversarial relationship. the leaders will look to reach agreement on starting a new round of arms control. they also may take steps with restoring diplomatic channels that were severed as relations plunged over the last few years. critics of u.s. technology giants are claiming victory. president biden has named lina khan as chairman of the federal commission. she has aggressive antitrust enforcement against tech

companies. her appointment came hours after the senate confirmed her for a seat. in louisiana, a judge has blocked the biden administration's than on new oil and gas releases on public land and offshore waters. it is a victory for republicans that filed a legal challenge. it said that any long-term halted leasing jeopardizes jobs and energy production. global bankers are hoping to skip hong kong's quarantine regime will have to wait. the bankers are being advised to postpone. it is a blow to fully vaccinated bankers looking to travel outside of hong kong, also for overseas executives wanting to avoid three weeks of renting. -- three weeks of quarantine. the biggest real estate investment in china. a private equity firm is near an agreement to buy soho china. the company could be valued at about $3 billion.

shares soared 40% last week. -- 48% last week. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> this is going to be a virus that is with us long after the

public health emergency has ended and will be something that is a routine immunization, where we do not think much of it, like tetanus or diphtheria. it is given to children at some period of time. tom: my grandmother used to tell me about diphtheria. it was not funny and it was a period 120 years ago where a lot of children died of diphtheria. to the smart people of pharmacology and medicine in america, across europe, that problem went away. dr. amesh adalja with johns hopkins university joins us on this incredibly busy day with a quick brief from lauren sauer of johns hopkins as well. we are going to get to zero deaths. then what do we do? lauren: the first thing we will do is continue to maintain the

push for vaccination as mentioned earlier. we will see that this becomes a childhood vaccination. this will go into the toolkit we have to protect children as they get ready for school, as they get ready to go out to the public, and give them the immunization to really keep those cases low and make sure we do not come to a place where we have unvaccinated adults who are very susceptible, or even unvaccinated children who are susceptible. tom: i look at the children susceptible. how close are we to a vaccination for the young offspring, under 12 years old? lauren: we are getting there. it is exciting to see. the 12 euros and up are starting to get -- the 12-year-olds and up are starting to get vaccinated. tom: i don't mean to interrupt, but when a 14-year-old gets vaccinated and demands a trip,

is that part of the medical prescription? lauren: i don't think it is part of the medical prescription. we definitely do not write it on the pad. we encourage people to take advantage. tom: thank you. lisa: any time that john accuses me of self-serving questions, i will replay that clip for him. this feels, as more people get vaccinated, this feels like health officials are driving around the block looking for the perfect parking spot and we are sitting in the backseat saying, can we please just get out of the car? are we there yet, lauren? lauren: we are so close to that perfect parking spot, it is unbelievable. we are starting to see restrictions lifted because we are getting out of the car. we are enjoying the benefit of having many people across the country vaccinated. we are seeing cases drop. we are seeing a 30% reduction in cases last week alone.

-- 13% reduction in cases last week alone. these vaccines work and we continue to add to our school to. the most recent one showing very promising data. as we move into summer, we will see many restrictions lifted across the country. we are also -- already seeing masking restrictions and physical distance restrictions being lifted right now. matt: the you take, it looks like from the johns hopkins website, is as far along as the u.s. is and they have had a disastrous about-face in terms of lifting their lockdown restrictions. good bet just of -- could that just as easily have happened to us? matt: many up -- lauren: many of the cases are with the delta variant and we are seeing an increase in the delta variant here as well. what we are hoping, the vaccine is effective, many of these

vaccines are effective against the delta variant, is in place so we will have protection against hospitalization cases. we may see infections, but the hope is that we also seek to build -- see people staying out of the hospital, less severe illness. matt: is there a certain point in which we have vaccinated as many people as we can possibly convince and you just leave the unvaccinated to their loss? lauren: if you ask any person in public health, they would say no. you keep fighting that fight. you keep trying to get everyone vaccinated. at some point, public health will ask and government will ask are the resources we are speaking -- spending still working and is it still worth the money we are spending on these programs. for now, that money is definitely important. as we target vaccination strategies, the place where we

will want to continue to target is where you have large pockets of resistance or hesitance or access issues. if you are spending all of your efforts, all of your resources on finding one or two random people who are not willing to get vaccinated in a town or a community that otherwise has really good coverage, that is probably not the best use of resources. but if you are identifying are skips of people who are either hesitant to be vaccinated or have not figured out how to access the vaccine in a systematic way, then you change your strategy and get a vaccine there as fast as possible. lisa: to give you a sense, yes, the virus is on its way out. japan is playing to lift its virus immersions on june 20. the nation is still grappling with this. we are talking about covid. we have been talking about covid for the past 15 months. there are a host of other health

problems that have gotten worse during the pandemic. people are not going to get cared. people not getting exercise or taking care of themselves. how bad is it? how much sicker have we gotten during the pandemic outside of covid? lauren: it is a question we will have to continue to ask. i don't have a great question. many people delayed care, coming to the hospital, or they could not reach healthcare resources because of the covid cases. i think it is a public health issue and a clinical issue that we will be an tailing for a long time, looking for ways that covid has had secondary effects on the health of our community here in the u.s. and globally. tom: lauren sauer, thank you so much, of johns hopkins. good news on the pandemic in america and from tokyo as well. futures flat. the nasdaq goes the other way. a little green.

we have to go back to 74.26 on oil. that gets my attention. lisa: the supply is not coming on. demand is restarting a question. i ran -- iran, whether they will come to the accord and bring those barrels back online. that is looking less likely, which has also been getting a bit of a lift. tom: matt, what are you observing in berlin? matt: what i am observing is increasingly high temperatures. it is getting hot. we are getting to the beginning of summer. i cannot think about anything other than the fed. i have to be honest. the biden-putin meeting is interesting. because of lisa's column, because of mohammed's column. it is all about what happens to the fed. i am glued to the screen. lisa: and what car is jay powell going to drive? matt: he is a prius man.

tom: in helsinki three years ago, four years ago. the price of oil only $72 on brent crude. and now $74 a barrel. stay with us. from geneva, berlin, in new york, good morning.

in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7.

every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com.

♪ >> you will see more workers reentering the labor market, and the labor market is very hot now. >> i think growth is going to be quite strong. >> what is the fed going to do, and how does that play into everything else? >> what worries me right now about inflation is what is in expectations. >> the reality is that all of these things do go away, and you just don't know how long they take to go away. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" from new york and from geneva, switzerland. we welcome all of you on radio and television, worldwide and across this nation. jan hatzius to join us later on the fed.