>> you will see more workers reenter the labor market, and they are reentering a labor market that is very hot right now. >> what is the fed going to do, and how does that play into everything else? it has been a fed driven market. >> if there's anything that worries me right now about inflation, it is not even in the data. it is what is in expectations. >> we didn't see it for about 14 months area -- about 14 months. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: a historic day in geneva,

historic day in washington, d.c. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. jon ferro out. romaine bostick very much in. the focus very much on the federal reserve, even as president biden engages in diplomacy throughout europe. the question really is domestic, which is how hot will the fed allow inflation to run. tom: you are absolutely dead on. it is in one part the gdp numbers, and what it means for earnings and corporations into the mystery of q3. a really strong set up for the fed meeting this afternoon. lisa: i am struggling to understand the market's wish with respect to the fed meeting today. a growing concern of financial stability risks. the longer the fed waits, the more of a policy error they will commit later. tom: it comes down to a word

from another time and place, which is overshoot. i really have trouble thinking about an overshoot with the millions unemployed in america still. lisa: that is the reason why increasingly, markets are coming around to the view that inflation will remain lower for longer. once we get this pop, it will revert back to a lower than normal regime. you are seeing that rotation out of the cyclicals back into the mainstay of big tech. that seems to be continuing today. romaine: if you are invested in this market, there's no reason to really make any sort of meaningful bet that the fed is going to change course. so why wouldn't you stay invested? why wouldn't you take advantage of the drop in yields, of some of the valuations out there, which don't look now as rich if you do get a fed that stays on top. lisa: vladimir putin and president biden meeting for the first time since president biden came to the home of the presidency of the united states.

a very different tone between this and the meeting in 2018, and yet i am struck by the lack of focus and markets. the idea that perhaps there could be something significant here one way or another, having to do with cybersecurity, having to do with tensions that have been rising. romaine: a lack of focus in markets to geneva? lisa: they have not been responding to this particular action. tom: but i would suggest, i defer to say, dr. morse at citigroup. the idea of how it folds into oil is always part of that calculus as well. on a fed day, the real yield down to -0.91%. to me, that is newsworthy. of course, brent crude, when did we get to $75 a barrel? chris verrone believes the extrapolation is out to $80 a barrel. how many people are really ready for that? on the data front, red and green on the screen. bitcoin under $40,000 now.

make it $39,000. the 10 year yield is my big statistic to the fed show. in new york, we must frame the vista of geneva. geneva is so much a part of france, mostly surrounded by france. you go up northwest sure into ashley northwest sure -- the northwest shore and go into germany, but if you are in geneva, you can look at one of the best rose gardens in the world at cronje -- at le grand. with all of the pomp and circumstance of geneva, let me start with civics 101. is russia part of europe? maria: you know, this has been a question for i would argue 100

years. geographically it is, but the politics are very different. they have been for the past 60 years. if you go back to the soviet union, they would tell you we are not really europeans. we are creating our own system. this has always been the tension with russia. do you look at it geographically, in which case this is a european country that you can't ignore? or do you focus on the politics, which means russia is very different to the rest of europe, very different from you western liberal democracies here in europe. lisa: what is the significance of a four or five hour meeting between vladimir putin and president biden? the idea is that the kremlin did indicate it would be that long. maria: they did say it is going to be 45 hours. there's a lot to talk about, and it is always better to do it in person. vladimir putin, today there was no power move from vladimir putin.

he was on time. his security was much smaller, and he had a handshake, saying i'm happy we are doing this in person. they are stuck in this building right behind me. we are expecting a four hour meeting. a lot of things to go on in here. the significance, it shows that there's a lot on the agenda, but for the u.s. delegation, this has been such an exhausting trip. vladimir putin here today. president biden has been on the road since friday. you can imagine that the u.s. delegation is extremely exhausted here. nonetheless, the americans say they are really ready to go for four or five hours if that is what it takes. romaine: maybe give us some insight into what biden may or may not have learned from some of his european counterparts over the last few days and how he should go into this meeting, what europe itself might be able to concede or not concede here today. maria: when you speak about

europe and their position to russia, it is very different. the position to germany is very different than that of emmanuel macron in france, who says we cannot ignore russia. it is so close to europe that we need to learn how to work with the reference. when he spoke with the baltic leaders, it is interesting that president biden did take the time to speak with the polish authorities, with the lithuanians. he also spoke about ukraine. russia is right next to their border. they worry about russia moving in the way it did with crimea. they worry about russia amassing all of those troops on the eastern border. that is something where the europeans cannot concede. that physical border needs to stay that way it is, and they want those troops to back off from the eastern border in europe. tom:tom: maria tadeo, thanks so much. right now with global strategy off of this moment and certainly off the fed moment this afternoon, we are thrilled that brian levitt could join us, with invesco, their global market

strategist. how does invesco reset at midyear? brian: the reality is the economy is starting to move from recovery into an expansion phase. from the large story of better economic backdrop, a fed that is on hold, it is still an environment that you reset in an expansion phase. you start to see more of the growth oriented parts of the market participate again, so we had this pretty big value move from the fall of last year, the beginning of this year. i think that continues in an improving economic backdrop. but you tend to see in the expansion phase your big growth stocks also start to perform quite well. lisa: what would be a bigger surprise for markets today? if the fed does not bring forward the rate hike expectations 22023, or if the fed does?

brian: i think a bigger surprise to the market would be if they do bring it forward. i think we are still going to be talking about a very gradual pass of normalization, so my expectation from the fed is to focus more on what they are going to do with their asset purchases. i think the message is going to be we are going to start talking about talking about tapering asset purchases at some point. it will move towards where rate expectations are going to be. but the reality is this is a fed that has telegraphed this pretty well and has done quite a good job, particularly if you look at inflation expectations three to five years out, which are very much near their comfort zone. i think the fed is going to be on a gradual pass. it is a supportive backdrop for markets. even these early moves in fed policy tend to not be what ins the cycle. they may create some volatility along the way, but it is really

the last rate hikes that matter, and we are a long way from that. romaine: where do you see a the economic cycle here, particularly as it dovetails with the positioning we have seen in equity markets, the rotation to cyclicals and now a couple of weeks away from cyclicals? brian: that is a critical question. i would say we are still very early in the economic cycle area the reason i say that forcefully is because i hear a lot of questions about is it too soon, is it too much excess, is it too inflationary. we had a disastrous outcome. we are digging out of that outcome. if you look at it from a real gdp perspective, we are getting back to where we were at the end of 2019. if you look at past cycles, you find that cycles have lasted on average around seven years with a 25 percent cumulative increase in real gdp, so this idea that we are a year in and only getting back to where we otherwise would have been suggests it is very early in the cycle.

that favors risk assets until it looks like the economy is going to roll over. the next question is directionally, where are we? we've just had a recovery phase with the applications for markets. now we move into an expansion phase. you shouldn't expect interest rates up as much as they were. i think the dollar is still somewhat weaker. commodities should continue to do well. equities should do well, shifting more to growth stocks. tom: i hate having you on for 45 minutes today. we need you on for three hours. [laughter] i am going to go to what you just said, which is horse and cart. is a weak dollar the horse, or is a weak dollar the cart? brian: the weak dollar is a byproduct of coming out of a very strong dollar environment. we are now in an environment where growth around the world may be more synchronize than it

was in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. there's been a lot of policy support in the united states and the fed is telling us they are going to be on hold. i think what you are asking is does that start to unlock some of the value that exists around the world. i suspect that it does. the challenge that investors have investing internationally over the last number of years has been a strong dollar environment, to the extent that the policy is relatively accommodative and the rest of the world starts to participate more in this expansion. then the dollar should be stable weaker and international should perform well. tom: brian levitt with invesco, thank you. good to talk to him on a really interesting day. i look at the library scenes, so different. to me it is the starkest difference of everything we have seen on this seven day tour of biden and mr. putin, there to foreign ministers -- mr. putin, their two foreign ministers.

but does the calmness of that scene folder over into a calm this of greater global gdp? i don't know if i can make that leap. lisa: it goes to a calmness between the u.s. and its allies, a back to normal in terms of international relations that is what this trip has been about. that has given a certain competence that at least policy is a bit more printable than it used to be. tom: the body language is just stunning. it is like me and jon ferro. [laughter] romaine: i know there will be a lot of people parsing. tom: "saturday live" is going -- "saturday night live" is going to kill this. [laughter] romaine: we will get the body lang which of mr. powell as well. tom: we thank all of you for joining us. terry haines will join usk from

pangaea. also, -- will join us from pangaea. also, speaking to the folks at goldman sachs. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> the agreement we have found now really opens a new chapter

in our relationship because we move from litigation to cooperation on aircraft, and that after almost 20 years of dispute. tom: ursula von der leyen and, the european commission president. right now in geneva is the president of the united states and the president of the russian federation, vladimir putin. they are meeting privately with their foreign ministers. the president will get on the plane in geneva, air force one, and he will leave on a jet plane and come back. always a president returns. we thought we would take time with terry haines of pangaea policy. what is the level of gridlock that will greet the president when he gets inside the beltway?

terry: i think the level of gridlock is about the same as it always is, and frankly, less than most people think. my view of washington, simply and shortly, is that there aren't two political parties. there are four factions. the fringes, in other words, the progressive left and conservative right, are driving the agenda. very little happens. if the centrists are driving the agenda, things happen. you have seen covid. you have seen infrastructure. we will have a big spending and debt ceiling fight this fall, all of which decent lists -- the centrists are not likely to win. tom: i believe we have centrist republicans and democrats trying to drive forward to a centrist president as well. are you optimistic the centrists can take the high ground on infrastructure? terry: i am optimistic they are trying to take that. i am non-consensus 60% right now

that you get a likely deal by the end of june, july 4, around there. bottom line, everybody is still around the poker table. continuing negotiations, new proposals as we've talked. the negotiating differences continue to narrow. they are now about 500 billion of -- about $500 billion apart total. there's progress, but not too much detail. nobody is rejecting out right. so things are continuing in a positive direction, but i will give you 40% that they fall apart. lisa: president biden has been pretty clear that even if he doesn't have a partisan support in congress, he does have it among the population, the people do support his proposal for infrastructure spending. how does four dollar oil affect that? the idea that when people go to the pump, they see very real inflation, though perhaps not pervasive across all of their purchases? terry: i think the

administration's view of public support is a little bit overblown. but you expect that out of administrations. they are going to put the best on it regardless. the perception of inflation definitely draws a in that. the good news for the president's he is above water in public opinion polls on approval. the bad news is he's not much above water in approval. so things like for dollar oil or some other exhaustion a shock -- some other exhaustion is shock -- some other exogenous shock will lead to inflation, and he doesn't have the runway with the public he might have just going it alone with democrat. lisa: just to dovetail this conversation with the federal reserve policy, given that infrastructure spending feeds into some of the inflationary outlook, what is the political

ramifications of higher inflation expectations? we have not had this for decades because of the low inflation environment. is it becoming an increasing political liability? terry: i think it is, broadly speaking, becoming an increasing political liability. exactly why i said inflation or the perception of it. the white house says, i think quite properly, that the year on year is being measured from a false floor. that inflation is actually a lot less then it was because he remeasuring a year ago kind of at the bottom of the pandemic economy. but at the same time, it is how people perceive it that matters, and there's already a lot of walking about that. so that is a real problem. the administration has been putting up a lot of pressure on the fed in ways that we also haven't seen for decades. in order to hold things off,

you've got yellen putting pressure on him, former fed officials, all kinds of things, and the g7 itself was a desire to keep domestic spending up. romaine: talk a little bit more about perceptions here. when we talk amongst regular folks on the ground, you will hear a lot of anecdotal evidence about higher cost of gas or food, the difficulty in finding a job that pays a wage that folks think they should have even if we start to see actual economic data shows the improvement that all of the economists and high-level thinkers want to see, is that going to translate down to a level where people are going to say i am better off now under this administration that i was under the previous administration or whatever the next administration may be vying for down the road? terry: i think it is going to take months to get there. let's assume, let's take your hypothetical at face value and say that that case can be made today.

that will take months to trickle through, months in which the economy is just serving to reopen. people are starting to travel. they are spending money differently than they did, and probably spending more since we know the savings rate in priest -- savings rate increased. they are going to experience a lot of the high gas prices and high prices everywhere, and they are not going to feel like things are returning to normal and that the inflation scare is subsiding. that is number one. number two, there is an expectation i think that the administration was going to and should have handled covid up early and well -- handled covid properly and well. but i think it is a mistake for any politician to assume that dealing with that basic and important matter translates into goodwill across the board on everything else. they can think he handled one thing well and other things badly at the same time.

tom: terry haines with us on the politics of the moment, with pangea policy in washington. i think we've got to look at the correlations of the data right now. i am going to go to the real yield, -0.91%. this is a greater negative statistic over the last number of days. lisa: and this is a market that think the fed will remain as dovish, even as behavior starts to pick up. the s&p is a little lower. these movements are hardly something you can call a movement at all. interesting, that rotation continuing. romaine: the 4235 on s&p futures has basically been landlocked for the past couple of weeks. you do wonder about some of the softness we have been seeing in the dollar as well, trying to reassert itself a little bit, now pulling in the opposite direction as we head towards this afternoon. tom: thank you so much.

romaine bostick thus. we will widely continued. -- widely continued. jan hatzius with us of goldman sachs. stay with us today from geneva and from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: bloomberg surveillance. an interesting day with economic data now, the fed later. world leaders meeting in geneva. futures at negative one. the yield 1.4871%. michael mckee with breaking news. michael: good morning. we are looking at housing starts this morning. a little bit weaker than forecast, 1,572,000 annual rate. that is lower than the 1.63 rate we had expected or economist had expected. building permits soft as well. 1,681,000, down from 1,730,000 expectation. the building permits are down 3%. housing starts rise 3.6%.

that is lower than the 3.9% that was forecast. it does appear we are seeing bottlenecks in the housing industry because demand has remained strong. import prices up 1.1% the last month. for the year, they are running 11.3%, which is significantly higher than the 10.6% last month. lisa: both of these hint at the commodity story, the idea input prices are increasing as commodity prices rise. is there they hate housing starts are slow -- is therapy -- is there the hint housing starts are slowing -- could this be effecting demand because it is so much slower to build a home? michael: pit -- the question is how much does it cost. we have seen the housing price

increases over the past year have not fit into cpi, probably because of the way they calculate it. that could happen. that is something to keep an eye on. lumber prices and copper prices have both rollover. if that continues, that would help a lot. it looks like the chinese decision yesterday will put additional pressure on the copper market. the import prices probably driven a certain amount by oil, the highest since 2011. tom: las vegas has immense bets on this. what is the likelihood you get the first question at the fed meeting? michael: i would bet against me. tom: there is a tradition they wait for the heavyweight at the end of the questions. michael mckee will ask important questions at the gathering with chairman powell this afternoon. our coverage beginning at 1:30. long bill and far away, bill

dudley has been on fire as the new york fed. dudley at goldman sachs. that a guy out of germany via wisconsin, madison, and oxford and i was like, ok. then he stopped the u.s. economy market world with mortgage equity withdrawal. that is how he first came to my attention. jan hatzius has gone on a claimant goldman sachs. -- gone on to a claim at goldman sachs. the x axis out for any fed chairman is always a challenge. what is the challenge for chairman powell right now as he looks out to 2023? jan: there is a number of positions that have to be made before that. when did they start to taper qe? they have said they will not hike rates until that process

has concluded where they have strongly implied it. that will then determine what do you think when rates are going to start rising. at the moment the dot plot is basically saying no hikes until the end of 2023. that will be on the table today and i think it is a close call. my best guess is they stick with the message they are sending. tom: jan hatzius predicts boring meeting. it is after-the-fact. our matt boesler with a really important question. making very clear this is about the present base effect analysis versus the truly ex post inflation expectation game. which is it? is this analysis of base effect dynamics or is it truly traditional fed analysis of an nation expert patients? jan: you mean what happens in

2023? tom: the mystery of how we get out. jan: i think that will be driven more by what you think about how tight the labor market is in the traditional stuff. the near term inflation increase is partly base effect, it is partly reopening effect, and it is bottlenecks, which michael just talked about. lisa: before we get into the granularity of inflation, i want to understand the granularity of tapering. people talk about as though it is a monolith but is it getting to zero, getting to know bond purchases before they hike rates? jan: that is our assumption. they have not said that explicitly but i would guess they are going to get to zero and then there will be some time that will elapse before they start moving rates higher. obviously that will depend on the data. i would be surprised, not

shocked, but surprised if they were still planning to buy 30 to $40 million per month in perpetuity. lisa: i guess i'm struggling that the idea of the federal reserve is buying more than $1 trillion a year in its base case for continuing monetary accommodation. its balance sheet is almost $8 trillion. do you really see it is feasible to remove accommodation without disrupting financial markets in a way that stymies the effort to ever raise rates? jan: i think there could certainly be pickups, especially if you are also seeing a slow down in her oath next year driven by -- a slow down in growth next year driven by fiscal support. i think 2022 will be substantially slower on a fourth quarter to fourth quarter basis. we think 2.5 percent after a

banner year of 7.7% q4 to q4 in 2021. if that interacts with an environment in which the fed is tapering on purchases. that could result in a growth scare. we probably are going to have some nervousness. romaine: let's talk a little bit more about some of the fiscal policies. there is a multi-joint dollar proposal in washington sitting on someone's desk -- there is a multi-trillion dollar proposal in washington on someone's desk. i wonder how much that has to factor into the path the fed is trying to start out. jan: the baseline could be something gets passed, maybe not the whole thing something large in terms of the headline number. the key point is this is a very different type of spending program relative to the american rescue plan act. that was very frontloaded.

one point $9 trillion over a little over a year, whereas this plant will be over 10 years. whatever number you see, you have to divide by 10. that is still going to mean is in if you nevada fiscal drag. it also means there still has to be additional treasury issuance. there is the potential for changes in tax policy. how do you factor that in? jan: i think that strengthens that point. as you say, a significant part of the spending increase will be offset by tax increases. i think it will be somewhat stimulative, but much less so than the headline number, both because of the 10 year horizon and because of the tax increase. tom: on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television, jan hatzius with us on this day before an important fed meeting.

your statistic on the slowing of the american economy under 3% is really important. a huge body of americans are not prepared that. if we slow from a boom to an under 3% economy, we have never done that before. we have studied the early 1950's. deflation. do you expect such a shocking gdp dynamics we could get to a deflationary dynamic? jan: i do not view it so negatively. right now we are still a long way from full employment. there is still a lot of slack in the labor market despite the near term labor supply issues, and strong -- will get us to something like employment by 2022. at that point you want to see slower growth, otherwise the

economy is going to overheat and you have to worry more about persistent inflation. that is not going to be a good environment. we need to see a slow down. i do not worry about deflation but i think the current inflation is probably largely transitory. tom: a new economy, we partition it into goods dynamics inflation and service dynamic inflation. parse the difference as we look at a service sector dominant and goods producing, those inflation dynamics forever inflation expectations. jan: the surprise in 2021 has been on the good side. the acceleration in covid sensitive sectors is very much expected. the base effect were expected. six months ago most economists would have been surprised with the emerging surgeon used car prices and other durable goods like that. that has been the key driver.

they are outliers relative to the overall distribution. core pce is above 3%, will be above 3% for the rest of the year. if you look at trimmed median measures that capture the distribution of prices, those are still well behaved. to me that screams transitory. lisa: what about wages? wages have been going up, particularly sectors more in demand. how sticky is that? jan: we have seen wage increases at the bottom end of the pay scale. the evidence suggests the remaining covid effects around fear of the pandemic and may be some childcare issues, but also the $300 unemployment top up has weighed on labor supply.

that is going to be true for a few months longer. in the fall we will see the big increase in labor supply. that is also going to lead to reduced wage increases in some of the sectors. lisa: we got a headline that jay powell is planning to discuss the pandemic emergency lending program as well as the economic recovery at a house hearing on june 22. i'm wondering how concerned you are about the increasingly political nature of the federal reserve -- they are getting increasing pressure to be political to finance the u.s. debt and deficit, especially as the u.s. plant increase the deficit by so much. jan: i think there has always been political pressure and congressional oversight. obviously fed officials, if you go back to president trump, there was a lot more overt pressure on the fed then what we are seeing now.

now we are in a more normal historical environment where there were always hearings like this and strong opinions expressed. in the end, i think the fed is committed to the mandate. the mandate is somewhat different after the change from the hot summer. i do not think it is dramatically different from where we have been. romaine: to lisa's point, the shift in that mandate does sort of open the door for greater criticism here, as much as the fed will try to remain independent and preserve the perceptions of independence, does the political landscape shift enough were maybe that undermines some of the messaging? jan: the way the mandate is being interpreted looks a little different, for good reason. it does make sense to try to average 2%. i do not think 1.7% is

dramatically different from 2%. i do not think it is a massive shift, i think the changes that took place last summer at jackson hole, those do make sense. is that going to be something that will raise more questions, including questions from policymakers and from elected officials? probably. i do think the mandate is reasonably clear and we should find out more about how it gets interpreted. tom: thank you for joining us. greatly appreciate it. very generous conversation. lisa: you missed the lead. he put a tie on for the first time in the pandemic. jan: just for you. first time in 15 months. lisa: how does it feel?

jan: a little tight. tom: sonali basak emails and says is this is solomon mandate? is there a tie mandate? jan: not a time mandate. i will be one of the few when i go back to the office. tom: john hot cs, thank you -- jan hatzius, thank you for joining us. lisa, you have a very important guest. lisa: we will talk about the bounds of risk with financial stability and low yield, howard marks of oaktree capital joining us. he has had some he did things to say about where financial conditions are and the potential for an investor, the potential for mistakes. tom: after this interview jan hatzius will be on the phone with jeff currie saying what does $74 print actually mean?

all the sudden oil actually a story. strategas framing out $80 a barrel on brent crude. i know no one looking above $80. the fed meeting at 1:30 this afternoon. stay with us. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in geneva, joe biden and vladimir putin have begun what could turn out to be four hours of meetings. officials from the u.s. and russia are keeping expert tatian's -- are keeping expectations low in what has become an adversarial relationship. they will be talking arms control talks and may take steps to restore diplomatic channels as relations plunged over last year's. tech giants are claiming a victory. lena con is one of the most

prominent advocates of antitrust enforcement against big tech companies. her appointment came hours after the senate confirmed her for a seat. in louisiana, a federal judge has blocked the biden administration's -- it is a victory for 13 republican-led states that filed a legal challenge. the oil industry says any long-term halt in leasing is jeopardizing jobs and energy production. the u.s. is pledging more money to cut emissions. the u.s. climate envoy john kerry says it is imperative to close the gap on finance when it comes to climate change. kerry spoke in saudi arabia. he says the saudi's may agree to a net zero emissions target to take effect around 2050. -- to buy textbook company mcgraw-hill.

it is owned by funds managed by apollo global management. bloomberg reported in march apollo was considering a sale of mcgraw-hill. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. >> we get back to living and life. the state mandates that have proven right and correct and brought us through this pandemic are relaxed as of today. effective immediately. tom: exceptionally important announcements, not only in new york but also in california. the governor of the state of new york there with true celebration . i can speak for all of us, we think the essential workers at bloomberg lp for their care

through all of this. it has been a huge team effort. i am sure you have all lived it worldwide and across this nation . right down to the basics like getting coffee in the morning. lisa abramowicz, off for the 9:00 hour, the important conversation with howard marks. romaine bostick is with me. we are thrilled to greet shaun donovan who is engineering a new york city mayoral candidacy. i've not done this, i am thrilled to have you on because the most unusual vote of new york, where second or third is a viable alternative. all of the sudden it is upon us. explain how your day is different each day because maybe nobody is trying to be number one, but they are trying to be number two or number three in this ranked voting. shaun: you are exactly right. this is a historic election because we are using ranked toys

voting for the first time. that means you have to be able to get more than 50% of new yorkers supporting you all across the city. what it means, and we have seen this in other places, that rather than the kind of political attacks we have seen, the mudslinging from the other candidates going into the final debate tonight, what new yorkers want at this moment is somebody that instead of politics is talking about plans. that -- the thing i think separates me in this election is i break real change from the status quo of the last eight years. i also bring deep experience in moments of crisis that have hit our city. 911. sandy. the great recession. all of those i helped to rebuild new york from. you talk about the excitement of reopening. it is as if we have just been hit by the hurricane. now the hard work begins.

we still have more than 500,000 new yorkers out of work and we need a mayor that can lead the city forward and have the experience in these moments of crisis. tom: let's dovetail the reality of the ranked voting and a move to a centrist dialogue with what has clearly become the theme, crime and the new york police department. how do you dovetail a centrist about with the responsibility of all constituencies and the new york police department? shaun: it is such an important question. if we step back and think about the work we did under mayor bloomberg that helped to make new york city the leading city in the world in so many areas that rebuild growth in this city , it was centered around the idea that in the modern economy -- quality-of-life, safe streets, clean streets. all the things that make new

york a good place to live are central to the economic success of the city. we need a mayor who really understands how to keep new york safe. part of that is getting guns off the street and having a mayor who can work with president biden and other mayors and governors. i have there's relationships. we can stop guns coming into our city. we are seeing a mental health epidemic on our streets. homelessness has exploded. we are seeing people pushed on our subways. knife attack's. anti-asian hate crimes all related to the work on mental health. that is the work i've done for years, breaking that cycle, providing housing, getting folks off the streets. we need to bring those together under the next mayor to help new york city start growing again and to put those more than 500,000 folks back to work. romaine: in addition to safety,

a lot of folks also looking at affordability, housing affordability. this is a tough city to live in for a lot of folks. you are basically a housing affordability nerd, you spent a good portion of your career during this. what is the solution for new york city? a lot of people have tried to address this and have failed spectacularly. shaun: the first thing we need to do is help keep people in their homes. new york city was the hardest hit city in the world a year ago. we are on the verge of the worst eviction crisis in our lifetime. instead of having a mayor who will demonize and divide us, go after the private sector, we need to do bring billions of dollars right now to our renters , but also to our landlords to keep them afloat and make sure we avoid that crisis. second, we need a mayor who can work effectively between public-sector and private-sector to grow our economy and create more housing. we have a desperate shortage of

housing, and it is pushing up prices all across the city. what i would do, just as i did when i was housing commissioner, work to make more housing affordable, to grow new york city but also make sure we are using all of our tools to create more affordability. one of those is homeownership. we have learned the best people to stop people being pushed out of their neighborhoods is give them a piece of the pie, help them own. that is the forgotten strategy in affordable housing in new york city. i would bring that back and make sure we are creating wealth and growing opportunity in the city for affordable housing. tom: we are out of time. shaun donovan, thank you so much, new york city mayoral candidate. with the gentleman in geneva in the meeting, we can launch over to a discussion of the fed meeting. i said maybe it does not matter, but after listening to brian levitt, listening to jan hatzius

and others, there could be some value. romaine: particulate with the way inflation expectations have shifted. getting a look at those economic projections. anything you can glean out of the words out of powell's mouth come out of the body language he gives to the audience could give the market more direction. tom: again the market data is something. on the equity markets, the fact is everything considered, fed meeting to fit meeting, there has been a bid wall of cash -- romaine: we see that every month when this comes around. today we are in a holding pattern with the s&p 500. futures relatively unchanged on the day. a little bit of dollar weakness. i think a lot of talk will be about what is going on than the commodity space. oil reasserting itself and base metals in the opposite direction. tom: we continue our coverage across radio and television. stay with us. more news from geneva.

jerome powell, the press conference at 2:30. we begin our coverage at 1:30. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

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lisa: ahead of what could be a fed storm, from york city for our viewers worldwide, i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan

ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: let's begin with the big issue. investors prepaying for chair powell. >> transition is our topic this week. >> communication will be key. >> how they communicate what they might do and when. >> what kind of hints chair powell throws at us. >> it will be harder and harder to avoid talking about some form of tightening. >> they are clearly preparing the market on inflation. >> we may be disappointed for more concrete expectations.