more disruption in the equity story. >> could we have several years of higher inflation? yes. >> the danger is behind us and i think the fed did the minimum. >> the fed does not know when the transitory notion will go away. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: the great reflation trade turns into perhaps the great unwind. we have tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. we do not have tom keene or jonathan ferro. we have matt miller and taylor riggs. help us get back on the rails. a question about what the message is in the flattening yield curve, the decline we are seeing in longer-term yields.

there is a feeling of disinflation. is that the correct call? matt: that is what we're hearing from all of the central bank officials. yesterday we heard from the buddhist bank. they should be the most hawkish european central bankers. he does not see any inflation midterm. there is a spike right now but he sees it as transitory. that we had real concern voiced by bankers by peter hooper and economists like andy haldane, we have not heard it from continental central bankers or from the u.s.. lisa: the interesting thing, it is not just what we are seeing the yield space, we are also seeing it in the commodities and the equity index with the nasdaq getting a bid. the mainstay names getting bid up once again.

is this because of the fed hawkish tilt or did it start earlier and stemming from some sort of fundamental data or signs people were reading in the market and the economy? taylor: it was all yesterday the rotation around the closing bell back into growth out of value. we were unwinding some of that trade. how much of it has been the discussion of wait a minute, we thought we were going to be able to tolerate inflation. all of the commentary i let yesterday was 2.5% max. what does that mean on further curve steepening? we know some of the fundamentals. when yields come down, the lower discount rate, valuations that help growth across the board. how much is it that if we are not tolerating in inflation, you have a flatter curve. is that a surprise? i think everyone thought there would be an upside risk to yield.

the last two days have shown us there's not enough risk to yield. lisa: there is also a huge debate about the potential implication of a federal reserve that does the more split than it has in the past. it does the members are bifurcated as to whether to take a more hostile tone. matt: bifurcated has been called. taylor: every time we say transitory we drink. do you drink every time you say bifurcated? matt: that is my keyword. [laughter] lisa: let's move to what we are seeing in markets. there is an idea that perhaps big tech can continue to get a bid as growth reigns supreme again. matt: who knows if that is the case. we are not seeing any action in terms of equities. here a little bit to the

downside. there we see s&p futures not moving at all. it is all about commodities. i would be looking at leading hogs. they were dropping in the london trade, moving a few standard deviations from what they normally do. also i would be looking at the pound as opposed to the euro. that is some real weakness. you see pound weakness against the euro, against the swissie, against the dollar. that is interesting to see as the u.k. continues to have problems with the virus and northern ireland. the 10 year yield is interesting, but it has not -- it has been up and down. right now 1.49. little change in crude as well. taylor: the 30 year now at a 207, unbelievable the moves we have seen. we could do bonds all day long, but instead let's do a morning brief.

lisa: thanks. the move in the yield curve has been shopping. the idea is the gap beat -- has been shocking. today is triple witching. this is every third friday we get the exploration -- the expiration of options futures. what is the potential implications, it is unclear if it is to the upwardly down. you can see big moves into the close. 1:00 p.m., baker hughes u.s. rate count. discipline has been the word of the year when it comes to this shale patch in the united states. they have not increased their production even though prices have increased substantially. the question is will this continue or will you see these companies bring production back online? today most government workers are celebrating juneteenth. president biden signed this into law yesterday. i find this fascinating come the

idea of the celebration of the end of slavery in america. the idea is people are given a day off, and you're seeing that in certain banks, yet markets are not closed. it takes time to decide to close markets. matt: neither are we. lisa: is a kind run from -- it is a conundrum whether they allow employees to take off and want to do for next year when they have more time. matt: most people are going to work today. city governments, state governments, those workers are also at work. banks, exchanges, media. i agree. next year will be a very different picture. let's get back to markets. david sowerby standing by to help us ticket off. great to have you with us -- to help us kick it off. great to have you with us.

you heard taylor and lisa just talking about yields. you are seeing this incredible flattening and we are not seeing any big moves to the upside that maybe you would expect as the world starts to turn hawkish. of the 81 central banks or 83 that have made moves, most of them have been to the upside. with powell's statement we are talking about tapering, and with the move on the dot plot you would think we would see move to the upside. what gives? david: i would think so as well as a stock portfolio manager. -- taking special cues from the bond market because the bond market is quite wise and very forward-looking. i think bond yields are lower because you have so many corporate pensions trying to immunize their liabilities by buying long maturity, long-duration fixed income assets. foreign buyers still recognizing that while our yields are not

quite appealing, they are still better than what you are seeing overseas. nevertheless, i think the directional move in yields will be higher because i am one of those portfolio managers who believes we are more likely to see incrementally higher inflation rather than drink my coffee, transitory inflation. lisa: drink your coffee. we drink other things. there's a question of whether this is a pause and what the trigger will be? david: i think it will be recognition that this inflation environment probably will not stay at 4%, but the incremental move will be from an underlying 2% inflation rate to 2.5%, perhaps a bit higher. once the market begins to recognize that. if i look at 50 years of money supply growth, we have grown about double the previous peak. usually the peak would be 10% to

12%. now has been in excess of 25% year on year. that is unprecedented. i do not know how that does not translate into incrementally higher inflation. the inflation rates i'm talking about are more in the 3% range. lisa: what is the 1.49 on the 10 year, 8207 on the 30 year telling you? are we fairly valued? david: it is telling me that at this point in time i will take my wisdom from the bond market. the bond market disagrees because the demand is there. as a portfolio manager when i think about tying inflation rates to bond yields, then the stock valuations, the biggest risk for me as a portfolio manager is i underestimate how much inflation is going up rather than to be in a transitory camp because higher inflation will lead to stocks are still your best inflationary hedge for growth on a real

inflation-adjusted basis, but the biggest risk to me as a portfolio manager is i underestimate that inflation moves higher. lisa: what is your sense of commodities, the fact we have seen a big move been some of the commodities, the metals, the agricultural products into the peak reflation trade? do you view this as a sign or an opportunity to pick up some of the commodities? david: i am not a great technician, but i think on a technical basis they were overbought. look at how much lumber had gone up, coffee, corn, sugar. it was overbought from a technical perspective. it has retraced its levels. if you look over the last year or year-and-a-half, it has been significantly higher. i think this is a sign of demand and the economy is improving. i think commodities for a piece

of your portfolio is a piece of a substitute for bonds makes good sense for a total portfolio construction. lisa: david sowerby, thank you so much for taking the time. this is a joy. the past week we had our own erik schatzker in venezuela and we now have a bloomberg exclusive with venezuela's president nicolas maduro speaking with erik schatzker. the focus is on normalizing relations with the u.s., but it does fitted to the broader theme we've been talking about all week of the great american reset of international relations. the idea is nicolas maduro would like to see relationships normalize with united states, the harsh sanctions lifted. take a listen to what he had to saypres. maduro: very cruel and

have damaged the venezuelan economy and society. the politics donald trump installed our extremist politics , irrational, right? that caused a complete rupture between united states and venezuela. president joe biden has arrived, making a proposal to the world. his first speech, on january 20. he said we do not have to demonize anybody in politics. i would say to president joe biden to stop from the white house and the department of state the demonization of venezuela, the demonization of the bowl variant revolution -- of the bolivarian revolution at the demonization of nicolas maduro. hopefully we can find paths of

respect, mutual benefit, and paths that allow us to normalize relations between united states and venezuela. erik: have you seen any signals that suggest joe biden has a different posture? especially as it concerns venezuela? pres. maduro: do you want me to be sincere? very sincere. there has not been a single positive sign. none. it is five months where, ok, they are settling into power. the only different thing that might be heard from some spokespeople at the white house and the department of state is that they agree with the political dialogue between venezuelans, without intervention, to look for

democratic political changes in the country. that is the only thing. they must abandon the demonization they make a venezuela, of our revolution, democratic, constitutional, and does -- and of president nicolas maduro to create a process of negotiation, to regular lies the relationships -- to regularize the relationships between the two countries. erik: a win-win is possible in your opinion? pres. maduro: we've already shown that. they know in the financial sector. the bondholders, with whom we had an impeccable relationship, and they know it is possible to invest in venezuela as long as the persecution and the sanctions are not there. the oil sector knows it who has invested in venezuela and to maintain the investments in venezuela. that we can advance much more. the cultural sector knows that.

the social sector. the political sectors know it. lisa: erik schatzker just returning from caracas. he is here with us. i did not know you could speak spanish. congratulations on the interview. i am curious what it was like in caracas given the covid pandemic and how hard that region has been hit and given the exodus of residents as a result of the financial crisis issues this nation has been faced it. erik: it should not surprise anybody that caracas and venezuela are a shadow of their former selves. venezuela was south america's richest country at one point in the 1990's. it used to produce three and a half million barrels a day of oil. last year that was down to 410,000, the lowest in a century. that is visible on the streets of caracas. the country does not have any money. first of all, you could argue it

was mismanaged by the socialist nationalist government of hugo chavez and nicolas maduro, but there are also u.s. sanctions in force. they do not allow venezuela to sell any oil, they do not allow venezuela access to debt capital markets. the country has no money. it is bankrupt. the infrastructure is crumbling. all of this is visible to the naked eye. i will point out there are green shoots. venezuela has relaxed some of its economic restrictions and it is fascinating. i do not want to downplay the poverty, which is extreme, but to see these flickers of entrepreneurialism in a country that has been forced to loosen strictures to try to find some way out of its desperate economic situation. taylor: what is the path forward? what is a realistic path forward to loosening sanctions, getting the oil back?

erik: let's not forget the trump administration was pursuing a policy of regime change. it was trying to derive -- it was trying to drive nicolas maduro out of office and as far as the u.s. government was concerned there were good reasons to do that. drug trafficking, corruption, all kinds of accusations and allegations for which there is much evidence against the nicolas maduro regime. the biden administration has taken a different approach. tony blinken has talked about free and fair elections. that is the path forward. that is what the negotiations are moving towards. what remains to be seen -- clearly nicolas maduro is extending something of an olive branch. he wants talks. he wants the united states to sponsor, along with the norwegians, some kind of a dialogue with the opposition that moves the country forward such as the free and fair elections take place.

ultimately the government feels the situation is stable enough. if that happens, i'm not in the business of making predictions, but if venezuela is allowed to start selling oil again and if investors are allowed to bring money to the country and put it in sectors like petrochemicals, it might be quite amazing the kind of growth we would see in the venezuelan economy, because it has shrunk by 80%. lisa: it has been shocking. erik schatzker, thank you so much for going down and doing this and joining us today on the heels of your trip. right now i want to get a reset of where we are in markets. the moves, particularly in the debt market have been dramatic. taylor, you are talking about this, and you are correct. taylor: thank you. lisa: it is significant to see

how much people are piling back into long durations, piling back into the dollar. the longest streak of gains in a long time for the dollar. the question since march 26 of 2020, there is a question of whether this is just a reset or whether this is the beginning of a new trend. taylor: to the confusion from all of the notes we have been reading, lisa. i think analysts and investors bought the fed should pivot, but they thought the fed is dovish and they might not. when they did talk about tapering the market was caught off guard. we do not believe the fed would do it. that is the tone i am getting from these analyst. i think it actually might happen. lisa: one thing i'm struck by is people are talking about the fed tapering and yet we saw the fed balance sheet rise to a new record high yesterday and the weekly report. $8 trillion. matt: they continue to spend

consider the europeans. i am starting to wonder whether we will see a game of chicken, who will go first? the central banks are starting to focus on their currency. lisa: coming up at 7:00, wei li of black rock global investment will be joining us. maybe we'll have some better insight into the bond market. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> more options for u.s. tourists. the european union has lifted travel restrictions for american residents, adding the u.s. to a white list of countries from which non-essential travel is allowed. the rules being eu countries are able to allow quarantine free travel from the u.s. independently of vaccination status. also added to the white list were hong kong, lebanon, serbia,

and taiwan. germany has reached a milestone in its efforts to beat the coronavirus pandemic. more than half of the population has been partially vaccinated. about 30% are fully immunized. officials are stepping up vaccinations as new virus strains are hampering efforts to contain the disease. boeings biggest 737 model is had to return to the skies. bloomberg has learned the initial flight of the max 10 could happen as soon as today. that would mark another milestone in the jet family's comeback. u.s. regulators have cleared the check to reenter the market in november. the jetline is not expected to enter commercial service until 2023. north korean leader kim jong-un says he is ready for dialogue and confrontation with the u.s. this comes as president biden's

new nuclear envoy heads to the region for strategy against pyongyang. it is the first high level suggestion of talks since biden replaced donald trump, who met kim jong-un three times. trying officials are planning to further reduce birth restrictions and policies to encourage childbirth. reporting lawmakers are discussing doing away with birth restrictions by 25. this respects the increased urgency in beijing as economic growth slows and china's population starts to grow older. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i do not believe we are at risk of hyperinflation. we have had several months of high inflation that most economists, including me believe will be transitory. lisa: treasury secretary janet yellen speaking. date two on capitol hill in front of the house financial services committee. the question is one of faith. this idea the inflation debate hinges on what you believe to be the case given the money that has been pumped into the financial system. everybody looking past the current data and saying it is not something that can be relied upon because, drink, it could be transitory. i am wondering what the key data would be. we had initial jobless claims this past week. they were disappointing. they rose for the first time in months.

the idea is we are seeing unexpected weakness in labor market statistics and yet people are shrugging it off. when does the date of matter? matt: initial jobless claims are famously volatile. we are not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels for another month. this reminds me of something else. jay powell in this current fed relies on outcome based frameworks. he was talking a lot in his press conference on his expectations, whose forecast, whose projections for the job market. this is something brian chappatta of bloomberg opinion has been talking about. i think the date it will matter when you see it for a longer time. -- i think the data will matter when you see it for a longer time. now that commodities have rolled over, the question is will we keep seeing these high prints? lisa: you are not the only one who picked up on this.

over at j.p. morgan bob michele gave a question to michael and said how is it they will not be looking at forecast, they will be looking at the data, and then they're hinging everything on the forecast and sing it is transitory? it does set up this conundrum. in addition to the split on the federal reserve where members are not in agreement with one another. taylor: you are seeing that split in the dots if we are even allowed to mention the dots for 2022 and 2023. i think the split with economists. we thought there would be a run-up in inflation. we thought that would be tolerated. on wednesday we learned it might not be so tolerated after all. we heard david sowerby, maybe 2.5% might be the top. lisa: this is the debate that does continue. we are seeing the yield curve's flatten and sing rotation back into big tech. nasdaq seeing its highest close

ever yesterday and further gains, even with the s&p marginally lower. another bid into 10-year gilts. if you take a look at 30 year yield, that is where you get the bigger bid. coming up, jay bryson of wells fargo. this is bloomberg. ♪

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lisa: this is "bloomberg surveillance." taylor riggs, matt miller, lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro and tom farrell off, well-deserved sabbatical. matt: -- taylor: i thought it was riley and brad? lisa: any other mentions? we are doing the oscars. there's a question of the great reflation trade. there is a question of if this is true and if this signal is saying something, why aren't risk assets selling off more? a slower growth environment will not be good for risk. matt: absolutely.

i think the fed is probably the main reason for that. not just the fed but also the ecb and other central banks have proven they are going to continue to stick with this recovery and be supportive and be stimulative. my question is around the rates. what i starting to think -- what i am starting to think is they beat are the smart money and they are 60 basis points by the end of 23 -- what i'm starting to think is maybe bonds are the smart money. lisa: the nasdaq poised for another high. you can see the s&p down slightly, although basically unchanged. the euro gaining versus the dollar. this is a reset after five straight days of dollar strengthening versus its peers. the idea is we saw the longest streak of strengthening going back to the peak of the pandemic

in 2020. the great reflation turns in the great unwind. jay bryson, wells fargo chief economist has been tracking the data. unclear what the data actually says. based on the data, we have any indication this economic recovery is starting to stall out, or give hints of having already reached its peak and poised for disappointment going forward? jay: i do not know if i would say disappointment. are we at peak growth right now? probably. in the second quarter you are looking at a growth that will probably be 10% annually. that is clearly not sustainable. if you slow down the second half of the year to what we think will be 6% or 8%, this is a very strong growth rate. peak drove -- lisa: there's a question about whether we can infer anything

from the labor market we've been getting, the idea we got it disappointment in the initial jobless claims, disappointment on the monthly jobs reports we have gotten out of the federal government. our week leading anything from that or is it still too -- are we learning anything from that or is it still too early? jay: it is still too early to make hard decisions about what is coming out of the labor market. we are still being affected by concerns -- when people say why aren't you working, concerns about going back to the workplace. there are still these extended unemployment benefits, at least in some states that may be keeping some people on the sidelines. i think we need to give it another few months to see how we are doing in the fall, if people are coming back to the labor market. at this point there is still a lot of noise, a lot of things going on in the labor market

that are depressed. matt: are you at all concerned about a price-wage spiral? it is something economists fear normally, but as lisa said we have gone through a paradigm shift. jay: that word, spiral. i'm not concerned about a spiral. i think what we saw in the 1970's. back then what you had was a fair amount of people had wages indexed to inflation. you have the shocks that pushed up prices that fit into wages and back and do prices and spiraled up. you do not have that today. what would be interesting or worth keeping a close eye on his inflation expectations. if they go up more, people expect higher and higher inflation, that does become a concern.

when you look at market indicators of inflation expectations, it has come down significantly. the personal expectations like what you captured in the university of michigan -- for me that is the big key. matt: in your career, from johns hopkins to georgetown to the university of alabama, you have been the entire time inside this reaganomics bubble. we have had the supply-side economics narrative for the last 40 years. that seems to have changed with this pandemic and -- i guess the last administrator -- the last administration was a big spender as well. all of a sudden modern monetary theory seems to have won the day. how difficult is that make your job? jay: this clearly is a paradigm

shift. where are we in terms -- the closest analogue you could look at would be the late 1960's. we did get some inflation out of that. it was the shocks of the 1970's that got inflation starting to head higher. it is a political decision going forward. are we going to get all this infrastructure spending, are we going to get the plan passed or not? we still have a very split congress. even among the 50 senators, there is not unanimity there. the politics is complicated what we are trying to figure out. taylor: how are you thinking within this big paradigm shift we talked about? the models we looked at?

the phillips curve. the way we are measuring inflation? are those tools still intact? jay: in terms of the phillips curve, that was put to rest during the last recession. we got down to an unemployment rate 3.5%. i would have told you we had a lot more wage inflation than we did. that is kind of out the window. we are in uncharted territory, not only with the pandemic but the way the economy is responding. when you think about the future, when we are looking at the forecast, there is always a confidence interval around that. unfortunately the confidence interval is wider than what it has historically been. taylor: what about the level of divergence? a lot of the guests were hinting the fed has diverged from other

global central banks. are you seeing divergence of the u.s. versus other central banks? jay: clearly up until wednesday there was a diversions. other major central banks were leaning more towards starting to remove some accommodation. the fed was not there yet. what they did with the dot plot on wednesday was may we are getting closer to that than what we thought. i would say the fed at this point is still lagging behind some of its international counterparts, but certainly the reaction function shift at the fed seems like what they have elevated his maximum employment and inflation. now that may be starting to change. the fed is starting to catch up. lisa: we are speaking with jay

bryson, wells fargo chief economist. every day on thursday at 4:30 p.m. i take a look at the fed balance sheet. yesterday the balance sheet increased by the most going back three months. it rose to the highest level ever of more than $8 trillion, crossing the line for the first time. they are talking about tapering, but they are doing anything but. how much support is this too the economy at this point and how much support is this giving to bond yields with people increasingly sanguine they will stay where they are? jay: the sense is down half the treasury supply right now. i do not have a point estimate for how much that is worth on the 10 year yield. it is proof -- it is clearly bringing that yield down. if the fed says will start to taper, what happens to the 10 year yield? it will snap higher. they look back at the taper

tantrum in 2013 when the yields on the 10 year snapped up 150 basis points over a number of weeks. i do not think they want to go back to that. we do expect later this summer or early fall the fed starts to hint about the tapering. when they start to do that you will see yield start to move up. i would not expect them to start to dial back purchases until late this year or probably more realistically early next year. lisa: jay bryson, wells fargo chief economist. i do so much. it is fabulous having the close as the open and before the open on a daily basis. taylor riggs, as we head into the open, since you'll be working a 15 hour day today -- you can do the math, or maybe you cannot after not getting any sleep, but there's a question in the change of tone as we head towards the close. the idea we saw the melt up changed tone.

can you give us a sense of whether there has been that shift? taylor: i think we saw a shift yesterday. the rotation back to growth out of value. i bring you a note saying how much of this is that rotation after continued underperformance we have seen of growth and shifting back into that? how much is momentum and how the stock market appears to be pretty backward looking. not something we typically here on the market. we try to assume it is forward-looking. we will have to see the commodity shakeout, if it is momentum back into growth. lisa: how you even look to the future if it is this cloudy? that is a conundrum a lot of people are dealing with. matt miller, our correspondent from berlin, there's also a question of u.k. data coming in disappointing. matt: yes, the retail data was disappointing and shoppers are

going out to eat instead of going back to the stores. you have to watch out, especially with the virus. lisa: we all go out to eat. coming up, andrew pekosz weighing in on the latest with the pandemic. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i am leigh-ann gerrans. more options for u.s. tourists. the european union has lifted travel restrictions for american residents, adding the u.s. to its so-called white list of countries from which non-essential travel is allowed. the new rules mean eu countries are able to allow quarantine free travel from the u.s. independently of vaccination status. also added to the white list were hong kong, lebanon, serbia, and taiwan. now singapore is scaling back

its reopening plans amid dozens of new covid-19 cases of last week. the government says on monday high-risk activities such as indoor dining at restaurant and going to the gym can resume in groups of just two people instead of five. officials say vaccination rates are not high enough to justify wider easing of lockdown rules. and for all that talk about commodities boom, some markets have now wiped out gains for the year and several more close to doing so. soybean futures have erased -- sliding more than 20% from a year high reached in may. corn also tumble. on bloomberg the great index -- the grain index slipped the most since 2009. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg,

powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> today the biden administration announced their

investment of $3.2 billion from the american rescue plan as part of covid-19 antiviral development strategy. it is a whole government effort aimed at developing the next generation of covid-19 treatment, as well as preparing us for future threats. lisa: dr. fauci, niaid director speaking about the path forward. the european union open to travel restrictions for u.s. residents, marking the reopening of the transatlantic corridor. the question is it too soon? andrew pay cost -- andrew pekosz, with all of his animals

behind him, there is a sense it is over that we could be setting us up for a failure or some sort of escalation and a third or fourth wave. how realistic is that? andrew: the positives are the numbers across the u.s. are looking good. infections are going down. the testing of samples is going down. everything looks good with respect to the pandemic at this point in time being controlled in the u.s.. we have to understand that is probably a combination of two things. the weather, people working outside more. transmission conditions are not as optimal, and the vaccination campaign has worked well, in particular to protect the very vulnerable in the population. everything looks good right now for opening up economies, for allowing people to travel. the general public should take advantage and re-embrace what

light could be like without the virus. we have to think a little bit further down the line. other people are thinking about the fall. what happens when people get back inside, when conditions are better for the virus to spread, will we see a resurgence and particulate will we see the researches and the people who are not vaccinated? what we are worried about, from a policy perspective, people should try to enjoy themselves while continuing to realize the pandemic is not over. we are just any good place in terms of controlling the infections. matt: where are week -- taylor: where are we on the vaccination campaign? there has been an uptick in vaccination rates that has leveled off. where are we in terms of the campaign on a rate higher in vaccinations? andrew: we are creeping forward. i'm still optimistic we will hit the 70% vaccination rate the president has set for july 4.

given all of the positive results that are coming from the vaccination campaign, not only the fact that the safety signatures are coming through incredibly strong, but also the efficacy of the vaccine and in particular the efficacy against variant viruses maintains a high level. this vaccine looks good. it continues to look good with all of the studies that have been done since it rolled out. it is a little bit of a head scratcher as to why there is not a more broader acceptance of this vaccine. there is not anything about it that would cause any hesitancy for people. -- that should cause any hesitancy. matt: i wonder about the delta variant. the bricks are pretty well back -- the brits are pretty well vaccinated and they are seeing another wave of infections. andrew: the critical thing about that is it looks like fully vaccinated people, if you're

talking about the mrna vaccine, the people who've gotten the second dose, those individuals seem to have a good response that protects against the delta variant. the u.k. took a different strategy, they tried to immunize everybody with a single dose initially to get broader immunity, and the delta variant is showing us the broader immunity is not necessarily enough to protect against. you need the doubled as immunity, the stronger immunity from a full vaccination to protect against that virus. if you stick to the two course vaccine we are doing in the u.s., you should be able to provide good protection against the delta variant. lisa: what is the latest on boosters? andrew: so far everything looks good. we are looking at people who have been vaccinated six months ago, trying to measure their antibody responses and how they are declining over time. all of the studies so far look good.

because this fully vaccinated regiment provides protection against variance, i do not think there is a big emphasis on trying to push a booster through. what would drive that is if we see a new variant that is evading the full vaccination immuno response, or if we really notice 12 or 14 months after vaccination you see a significant waning of your immune response. neither of those things have come to the light yet. matt: should we be at all worried about other virus outbreaks or have we prepared ourselves for anything that may come our way? andrew: free covid-19, all of our work on influenza is coming back to the forefront this year. the social distancing efforts put in place to limit covid worked incredibly well against influenza. we fully expect those will not

be in place in the fall and we will see a resurgence of influenza. we have already seen a resurgence of respiratory suspicion virus, which is a very serious infection in young children. that started to come back already. we are worried the loosening of restrictions will bring back some of the viruses we have not seen in a while. we do not know what that means in terms of the case numbers received from those infections. we are now preparing for flu just as strong as we are preparing for covid-19 this fall. lisa: dr. pekosz, thank you so much for joining us. if you are looking for a place to go after your so shorn on a motorcycle, perhaps you can. i think matt is the motorcycle back. matt: you are on a motorcycle ride? taylor: i was on like a golf

cart/scooter. it is all the rage in florida. lisa: there's the question as the eu opens a bit stop are you traveling or you basically stay home -- as the eu opens a bit. are you traveling or do basically stay home? matt: i work all day but my wife travels back and forth from germany to spain. it is still complicated that it is getting easier. hopefully the summer there will be a lot more intra-european travel. our friends and family from the u.s. can visit us. did you know erik schatzker is going to marry us in spain this year? lisa: he has a license to marry people? matt: i'm not sure if you need a license and we are already officially married. it is a celebration. lisa: the family of bloomberg. some insight. matt miller, thank you for that. we now get marriage talk.

coming up, wei li, black rock global chief investment strategist will talk about the great inflation turning into the great unwind. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> looking more and more like sustainable real growth. that says a lot for the stock market. >> behind the scenes we will probably see a little more disruption. >> could we end up with much higher inflation? yes. >> i think the fed did the minimum. >> the fed doesn't know either when transitory nation is going to go away. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning -- romaine: good morning for all of our viewers and listeners. i'm romaine bostick, in for