>> the public's hype over inflation had gotten too high. the fed got spooked. >> we still see there being more to go in this restart narrative. >> we have an economy that is really strong. it is not normal to have rates at these low levels. >> the fed has to be very careful about its communication not just verbal communication, but all types of communication. >> i think what the fed is concerned about is that after 2023, you are going to see continued increasing inflation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: partitioning a divided

federal reserve. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz in for jon ferro. people reassess the fed message last week and look ahead to what the economic outlook really is, given the fact that we are reopening, and get the fed is concerned about inflation. tom: the end of june and into the end of the second quarter, it is unusual uncertain. i would just say you've got to be riveted on every fed speaker today as they recalibrate and comb the market. lisa: jim bullard wasn't very calming on friday wayne spooked -- when he spoke with cnbc on how he would like to raise rates by the end year. does this mean the fed could potentially -- by the end of next year. does this mean the fed could potentially tighten in six months?

that is not being priced into the market. tom: kailey leinz, you have been living this this morning. it was read on the screen, and we have really turned it around, haven't we? kailey:kailey: it was an uglier picture at 3:00 a.m. but yes, it was a red day for the equity market. you are seeing that bid into the long end of the curve, a similar story to the end of last week, and now the story is changing. futures up 0.4%, and we were going nowhere in the treasury market. the 10 year yield just shy of 1.4%. tom: the markets crushed to the last hour with the knowledge of francisco blanch at merrill. $100 on oil? that changes the whole dialogue. lisa: a number of oil majors don't see the increase in supply. tom: $100 a barrel? lisa: yes, there's been an increasing number of calls like that. they are not outliers entirely over at bank of america. the idea that you're seeing this

including from swing producers in the shale patch, they have not in production despite the increase in prices so far. this raises this question about the elasticity of supply. tom: there you go. the tang mimosa this morning has elasticity. the vix, let's were mind ourselves, 15, 16, with the asked of friday out well over 22. the tin year yield, what a round-trip that has been. the 30 year bond was south of 2%, now at 2.03%. brent, $74 a barrel. rounded up, we can do that. bitcoin i refused to quote under $32,000. the 2400 dollars now on the esteemed coin. we need to get our heads -- 3200 4000 -- $32,400 now on the

esteemed coin. we need to get our heads straight. michael cushman can help with that. -- michael kushma can help with that. have you ever seen a market like this? michael: the five-year part of the yield curve come of the thirty-year part of the yield curve which we had 25 plus basis points swing, which is very anomalous. we probably haven't seen this in over 10 years. so there has been a massive re-think about the path of monetary policy. but what is interesting is the long-term targets, the long-term endpoints haven't changed all that much, which is the interesting bit. tom: the greek letters right now, part of it is gamma convexity or acceleration. for the pros listening and watching this morning, are you worried about suddenness or accelerate tendencies within fixed income? gerard: i think that's part of -- michael: i think that's part

of the movement we saw last week, positioning. the fed wasn't really going to address tapering or changes in rates until the fall, until after jackson hole, and suddenly that whole narrative changed. what you thought was going to happen over the summer has become a lot more risky. all of those things have become difficult. lisa: what is the message that the fed members want to give to markets this week? we have all the fed speak from williams to bullard and onward. what is the message, or are they happy with the disagreements being reflected in a little bit more uncertainty in markets? michael: i don't think they are happy about it, but reflect the diversity of opinions within the fed, within the academic community come on wall street. if you look at the fomc, i think there's five members that still see no rate hikes until 2023, and five who see four plus in 2023. that is a pretty different

opinion about how things are likely to proceed. given the rise in inflation, the hawks are more willing to show their hand about yes, this is potentially problematic, but the difference in opinion has not been settled. lisa: and of course kailey: -- and of course, -- kailey: and of course, it is basically them saying we will not let the economy run is hot as people anticipated. what is the readthrough for fixed income if that is the case, if they are going to keep a lid on inflationary pressures? gerard: i think we are seeing it already. yields are hovering around the 2% level, which is remarkable given how strong the economy is, how high inflation has risen, and yet the market now seems confident that the fed will pull the reins such that inflation will not exceed the current levels in their long-term forecast target. lisa: do you think the market is no longer range bound?

michael: i think we are moving into a more two-way market. we have been in able market since the end of march. q2 has been able market in fixed income. -- has been a bull market in fixed income. it has been a great quarter for fixed income. not surprising equities have had a bit of struggle and gone sideways in many cents -- in many senses, but the worry is a scenario that the future -- scenario in the future that the fed will not allow the economy to run away, and the rise in inflation in 2021 will be sufficiently high to take average inflation above to present such that they can begin hiking rates next year, all to be decided in the next six months, i think. tom: how is your world linked to either real economic growth or nominal economic growth? it is were of a spider web a

ball of these things we talk about, maybe back to a summation of john williams speaking today. when i go beyond that towards potential gdp or actual gdp that we are going to see, how does that filter into the kushma world? michael: the concept is very difficult to measure, but it is a very important concept of the trend growth in the economy and the level of real interest rates to generate strong growth or we growth, and the concept of secular stagnation which we have been in for a long time. ed has a function of this declining excess savings in the world. so the question going forward is the fiscal expansion which has been offsetting the rise in private sector savings the last six months since the pandemic started, will that money be spent in the private sector? if the private sector will spend that money, real growth will be

stronger, real bond yields will be higher in 2022, 2023. i think the fed has done research the that after previous pandemics in history, people don't spend all of the money in accumulated savings they've acquired because they are worried about the future. how this breaks out in the next couple of quarters will be important to decide how this plays out. kailey: are we peaking now in the second quarter? michael: be growth? -- peak growth? i think that's one of the reasons why bonds have done well. people believe the growth peak and inflation peak will fall. right now we are optimistic that they will reign strong, and inflation -- they were remain strong. it will thaw a lot from where we currently are today, but that tends to be quite bullish for fixed income. we just thought yields might get a little higher before they

start falling down to these levels. tom: thank you so much. michael kushma with us of morgan stanley. interesting to dovetail his thoughts on what mike stanley is doing. we really haven't broken out to a higher level. nevertheless, off of monday, dow futures up 195 points as well. i've got to go to the real yield. we haven't talked about that. this is the nominal yield minus the inflation expectation after the residual, which is the inflation-adjusted yield. which of those three parts are you focused on? lisa: the idea is that people are expecting the fed to move away from buying bonds, through their going to suppress yields -- so they are going to suppress yields. the real yield perhaps a little more in terms of the term premium. i find the move rather muted. the fact that we still have a -0.8% yield in real terms on the 10 year integrates a great degree of accommodation and a pretty tepid expectation for

inflation. i'm looking at that and thinking a lot of people are spectacle of just how hawkish the fed is. kailey: my observation is that you're not seeing the outperformance from tech that we saw last week. we saw the unwinding of the inflation trade with the nasdaq 100 outperforming. that was the case earlier in the session, now we are seeing it roll over a touch. as that futures only up about 0.25 sent. that compares with s&p 500 futures at 0.4%. maybe we are feeling that rotation -- that inflation rotation coming back. lisa: inflation rotation. it is a nursery rhyme. tom: we missed $100 oil from francisco blanch. lisa: we've heard other wonder dollar barrels oil predictions, from trafigura group and goldman sachs. the idea here that we are flying around, traveling in our cars,

moving around, and you're not having shale producers come back online. tom: a couple of things going on here. james foley to join us -- jane foley to join us. we look ahead to the qatar economic forum with the gentleman from south africa, cyril ramaphosa, speaking in a moment. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. national security advisor jake sullivan says the u.s. is working on additional sanctions on russia for the poisoning of opposition leader alexei navalny. president biden said he raised the case with president putin and made it clear that russia would face concert and his if navalny died in prison. spain's prime minister says he plans to pardon nine catalan separatists put in jail for their role in the illegal independence referendum in 2017. he will recommend that his

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>> what we will be keeping a close eye on is inflation expectations.

if they really start to come on more -- come unmoored, that does become a little bit of concern. we are in uncharted territory right now, not only with what is going on with the pandemic, but as well as the economy is responding to this. tom: jay bryson of wells fargo with important comments. many different opinions of where we are. one of the great joys of where we are, lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz with us this morning on radio and television, markets with not so much a new lift, but a sustained lift, is trying to big to authorities on the complexity the bonds -- on the complexities of bonds. tony crescenzi earlier with us of pimco, and now a true expert on the short-term architect, ira jersey, running all of our

interest rate strategy at bloomberg. just wonderful on short notice to get mr. jersey this morning. there's a growing amount of a wall of money in the repo market. the authorities say remain calm. others say not. which is? -- which is it? ira: i think you can remain calm in knowing that the federal reserve is aware of the situation. they don't want interest rates to turn negative on a systemic basis. i think that the fed is worried about the financial stability of interest rates being negative in the u.s. and wanted to alleviate that situation. the way that they did that was by raising those key interest rates last week. but i think the other thing is that we have to look at tabor as a weight -- at taper as a way to alleviate that.

tom: what is so important is unlike europe, we have a massive money fund complex. all of our listeners and viewers know this as well. the fed clearly wants to defend money market funds with positive interest rates, even if they could make a penny. who do they serve, the money market rates that we all own? or do they serve a fed trying to unwind this wall of money? which is it? ira: i think the challenge here is how does the federal reserve not get a subsidy to money market funds, but at the same time try to fulfill its mission of helping the economy? i question whether or not at this point quantitative easing and buying all of these assets, if it is not actually helping anything because there's other constraints on why this money is not necessarily going to help anything except asset prices go up, because bank reserves, which

are what is created when the federal reserve buys a bond, it can't be lent to the public sector, so they can't go to businesses, they can't go to the household sector. so base money keeps going up and up and it still has to find a home. so it is creating, and this is not unusual. we had this same situation in 2011 and 2012, toward the end of the quantitative easing period, where interest rates were zero and potentially negative because basically, these reserves are unwanted because there's things like regulations where banks don't want to hold all of these reserves. so i think the other thing that can be done and is a relatively easy fix is to exempt these reserves from some of the regulations. not necessarily all of them, but the supplemental leverage ratio in particular so some of the

larger banks can hold these assets because they don't present a risk to financial stability if they can just be held on bank balance sheets for not a lot of cost. lisa: if anyone is not deeply entrenched in the rate dynamics, this seems like an esoteric bait, but it really goes to the heart of the quantitative easing debate, which is at this point, is the fed hurting more than it is helping? does it need to taper because of excess money pumped into the system is causing all of these problems? what do you think is for the taper debate and when the fed will start, especially because their assets of the balance sheets rose more over the past year? we have seen them increased to a new high have more than a trillion dollars. how close is -- of more than a trillion dollars -- more than $8 trillion. ira: i think you will probably hear a little more this week. it would not surprise me at all

if they started tapering in the fourth of this year. we had originally been first quarter of next year, but i think they are getting closer to the idea that we can still have easy monetary policy, even if we start reducing our asset purchases. the important thing about asset purchases in general is it is a signal to the market that we are not hiking because the fed is not going to start raising interest rates while they are buying assets, even if they are buying just a little bit. so one of the suggestions i made late last week was they could reduce asset purchases from $120 billion a month and just buy a lot less. let the market be able to more easily absorb all of these reserves that they are creating. just because they are creating smaller amounts. but they are not hiking. so there is still a signaling tool to use with asset purchases just by reducing the amount that they are buying on a monthly basis. kailey: does 1.45% on the

treasury 10 year yield accents in a world where the fed is talking about talking about tapering? ira: it surprised me a little bit that we did rally, but i think what the market is saying to us right now is we think that the fed might actually, in terms of an earlier taper were earlier hiking, they are going to be able to squash the inflationary problem that some people think might out there right now. so what the market is telling you is we are not necessarily making a policy mistake, but policy rates aren't necessarily going to go above 1.5%, so it is going to be only four or five times, and then they are going to stop. the big thing that i think we are all missing in all of these markets moves is the fact that real yields have come up 20 basis points and inflation expeditions have come down 15 basis points.

we can't lose sight of the fact that the market is going to keep the lid on inflation somewhat, and the reaction function wasn't quite as lenient as we thought it was going to be in terms of their ability to absorb more inflation. tom: ira jersey, thanks so much. greatly appreciate it. you are on fixed income and extraordinary movements here. the yield is higher by two basis points, 1.46 percent on the 10 year yield. it is qatar economic forum. the south african president is speaking right now, making president. he doesn't mince any words. they need the vaccine. lisa: this speaks to the divide in the world between the haves and the have-nots. it has become a developer versus developing nations. how much will that be here? tom: persia on the -- on the

persian gulf, they have made very clear that this form will have i.s. to africa and the challenges -- will have bias to africa and the challenges of the middle east. we will have more from the burg economic forum in qatar -- the bloomberg economic forum in qatar. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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matt: good morning. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jonathan ferro off. kailey leinz with us as well. maybe there is no economic data but there is an exceptional monday across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. kailey leinz making a splash with a call of $73 a barrel on brent crude. the problem you run into. i just went down in flames because i'm looking at brent crude, but dollar ruble is also 73 to the dollar. lisa, i look at the bottom market.

how do you make a forecast in this? lisa: it is a faith-based forecast. it goes down to whether you believe inflation will surprise to the upside. what you believe about the reaction function of the fed and the dynamics of all of the cash. the idea of foreign buying should the u.s. start to rise for the highest yielding shirt in the sandbox. how about that for mixed metaphors? tom: you just went down in flames. speak to us in english -- kailey: i am coming up empty. i am still trying to dissect the different parts of the sentence lisa has set. what i am looking at is the dollar. after six consecutive days of dollar strength we get broad-based dollar weakness. i wonder if that episode of dollar strength is over. we are going to see it resume and how that reads across into the other asset classes.

tom: the churn is there. lara rhame joins with fx investors. she is a claimed for writing the short bullet research notes where she says would everyone just stop it and look at the obvious elephant in the room. you absolutely nail it this morning when you say the elephant in the room is nobody can make a two year forecast. we have to give it up. if we cannot make a two year forecast, what do we do? lara: you have to try. that is what we do. everybody looked at the fed forecast and they merely started penciling in rate hikes. the reality is the dispersion of the 16 fed members is so wide. there is clearly a lot of disagreement. that is where trading gets interested.

that is where volatility picks up. we do not have a lot of economic data early this week. you'll be watching what these guys say. that will continue. we have started off monday in a volatile session. it will be interesting to see where that goes. you have the hawks, you have powell tomorrow. the fed believes their own framework review. are they ok with the economy running hot and inflation running ahead of where they traditionally reacted? tom: you and i have been doing this for more than a few years. i would suggest we are truly -- is a cliche, but it is cliche monday -- this is original territory. nobody knows two days or two years. lara: i cannot agree with you more. what is driving me crazy as a

lot of the very respected, very intelligent fed governors are running back to these traditional phillips curve model they have built and thought so carefully about in a world where you saw the models completely break down over the last 15 years, and looking ahead, i think we will have real issues. what does it mean when the unemployment rates fall precipitously fast when you still have so many people out of the labor force? one example of how interpreting the data, you cannot paint it with the same brush we have been looking at for decades. i think for the fed, those are the guideposts they are used to. it is complicated enough for markets to be dealing with uncertainty. they need to get familiar guideposts from the fed and that is what we are seeing. lisa: you're talking about how difficult it is to make a two

year forecast. what are you looking at in terms of inflation? have you changed your view based on the fact the fed is getting more aware of the potential for the economy running too hot? lara: i see this inflationary cycle that i am always up to the task. i will always give you the forecast. i am seeing a mini cycle in inflation. to me the smart money needs to be watching inflation. headline inflation will be giving these distorted, supply driven signals for some time. underlying all of that we need to see the trend of wages. if that picks up significantly and is sustained, then i would rethink my forecast on this being more of a mini cycle where inflation is back to the 2% range it was historically and by this time next year.

lisa: when you talk about wages, i also talk about the shift in the economy. some people are worried about a lower participation rate in the labor market. the idea that the skills needed to build some of the roles that are available are skills a lot of people who lost their jobs during the pandemic may not have. how does that factor into wage increases. doesn't matter which workers are seeing their wages increase? lara: for inflation it definitely does. most of our workforce is -- what we say is unskilled because they've not been trained on the scale -- that can drag wages down to the extent this cohort can start demanding wage increases. you could see the financials of these companies that depend on this low wage area really change.

to your point, what we have seen is a pretty significant shift in geography, in jobs required. all of these things could lead to higher skilled workers that may find themselves needing to train up. what we would like to see is more skilled workers earning more money, not just low skilled workers. kailey: we are watching the labor shortage and the wage data. what other data are you paying close attention to when we talk about how noisy and messy these economic reads are, what are the key points you are watching and does any of it matter until we get the cleaner reads in the fall? lara: on the inflation front, stick to wages.

on other indicators, the lending numbers will be important. we have seen banks be good about maintaining discipline when it comes to lending. they need to keep that going with his much liquidity and loan demand started to pick up. that will be an important feature of how sustainable our recovery can be. from here, i think we start to think about 2022. still a strong year for growth earnings, but likely to be a year of deceleration. we are hitting the high watermark for growth right now. a lot of people have not grasped that. this is as good as it will get for gdp. kailey: what kind of deceleration do you see? how much slower will the growth get? lara: this is where so many people are missing the impact of the labor supply constraints. our economy needs everybody it can get to sustained growth, or even to sustain growth above the

2.5% level. if we have a lot of people that have chosen to exit the workforce, still down 3.5 million people. people who have retired early, stayed home. all of that becomes a constraint on growth more quickly than most people are willing to appreciate. tom: we have to leave it there. lara rhame. she read -- she nailed the two year forecast this morning. lisa, i remember when most economic reports modeled out a three or even five year economic forecast. that disappeared about 15 years ago. even before 2007, but certainly with 2007. now can you really go out to 2024? lisa: can you go out to december 2021? where are we going to be?

when you look at the comparisons in the data, the inflation debate, and wages going up. tom: i agree the mystery of the labor market. the other thing i would look at is this basic idea of what our earnings will do. how do corporate officers adapt is this wise and financially to what the fed has wrought? lisa: kailey kind of nailed it. you are talking about companies just buying each other. we are expecting to see a lot of that. the question is whether they can create synergies, we are pushing monday, and whether going forward whether it means cutting fast. kailey: and whether the readthrough is corporate earnings. we were just talking with lara rhame about growth peak out. earnings growth is expected to decelerate. companies will be facing tough

comparisons. earnings growth is decelerating, economic growth is decelerating. peeking out the second quarter, what will that mean for returns going forward? tom: we will have to see. i'm not sure. nailing it must be in the air. that is all i can say. lisa: you want to nail something to the wall? kailey: we will give tom a hammer. lisa: coming up we are speaking to the head of the blackrock investment institute. hopefully he can nail it. that is how we go. i will drive the conversation forward on the open. tom: i've had people on the montreal canadiens i called she. john from coventry emails in and says kailey nailed it. tom: one of the brightest minds

out there in macro economics. he is blackrock and always must listen. we are looking to qatar in the economic forum. good guest, including the former treasury secretary steven mnuchin. kailey: with the first word news, i'm kailey leinz. iran's president-elect says -- the hardline, who recently claimed victory in iran's presidential election also said he would not meet with president biden. goshen's -- negotiations have been taking place to try to save a deal meant to limit iran's nuclear program. chaos in sweden after the prime minister lost a confidence vote in parliament. that toppled his minority coalition and gives the leader

one week whether to decide to call snap elections. if suites are forced to take the polls early, will be the first time since 1958. authorities in hong kong will shorten quarantine time to seven days were fully vaccinated residents traveling to most places. there also said to cut the requirement for nonresidents. these are the most significant moves to ease one of the strictest order curves in the world. other plans include cutting capacity restrictions at restaurants and swimming pools. european natural gas extended its on president rally. as a bride curve set prices to their highest level in years. concerns about inflation. gas is still scarce in europe and some utilities have turned to burning more coal, set back in the fight against climate change. intensifying cryptocurrency crackdown in china. china ordered a platform to not provide services like trading of cryptocurrency. the institutions were also ordered to cut off payment

channels for cryptocurrencies and platforms. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there's so much money floating around that it is putting pressure on money markets rate.

the money is still out there, and it will not be removed for a long time. tom: pimco, extremely important conversation on the trillion dollars piled up, wall of money that will not move. these are real complexities. to all of you watching move not gone through the currency load, it is real simple. the pros are as before old as you are. a major shout out to the surveillance team that worked through the weekend to get the smart voices on this. stephen stanley publishing moments ago at amherst pierpont makes clear we have given up on studying the supply side of the american economy. we have to do that right now. also mark mccormick at td securities with a strong dollar like jane foley.

mccormick looks for strong dollar to endure. jane foley joins from rabobank. she has been dead on. her price targets are moving. the idea if you get a price target and a cup of copy later you are halfway there, what you do with your approvable pieces of fx? how ugly would has this been and how you adapt to rabobank on a monday morning? jane: why one month -- my one month target was 120. i not change that. we think the dollar will remain strong for the rest of the year and into the summer. there was a lot of talk around jackson hole, maybe that will be the meeting where the fed becomes more hawkish. what we saw last thursday surprised the market and what we are seeing is a huge amount of dollar positioning being squeezed out. tom: the dollar positioning has been squeezed out. a little bit of static on the

line. we will keep going with jane foley. that is what happens when the mics hit the -- when the mice hit the wires. i look at the pacific rim plate is something we have not talked about away from the majors. there's been an idea of better economy. pacific rim excellence. if i get a strong dollar, i cannot get pacific rim currency strength. which wins out? jane: in the short-term it will be the dollar. what the fed has done does potentially allow other banks -- if we consider the rba, those economies have been pretty good. they did not die that much last year compared to other g10 economies. they've had strong rebound. the central banks, particular the rba has remained prettied up rush. you could argue -- pretty

dovish. now that the dollar has strengthened, this could open the door for other central banks to be a little more hawkish. you could potentially apply that same logic to the bank of england, maybe even to the ecb. to what extent does this open the way for other central banks to change their tone? we are not necessarily expecting the shock we have seen from the fed. look at the yield curve in the u.k. and the yield curve in europe and germany compared with the u.s. over the last few days. we have not seen that much movement. it could mean we will see more central banks be brave enough to be more hawkish because they do not need to fear their exchange rate is going to start zooming higher. kailey: that is on the developed central-bank side. when you look at the emerging markets, the msci index around its lowest level in a month.

on the losing end of that dollar strength equation. we know emerging-market central banks have been raising rates and tightening policy. they are trying to combat rampant inflation when you look at the likes of brazil and turkey. are they going to provide enough support to their currencies? jane: at some point you have to look at very different emerging-market in their own fundamental capacity. some are better positioned than others. in terms of there being a stronger dollar, in terms of a fed who is stronger consensus than before, that is bad news for em. we have to remember the fed is still accommodative, just a little less accommodative than before. from that point of view there will be value in some emerging markets. it will be the investors are able to pull apart the different

em countries and look for the ones that can still offer value. kailey: we are getting the bank decision later on this week and i'm looking at a cable rate of 1.38 or so. what is your base case for the pound? jane: we have seen sterling comeback against u.s. dollar in the last couple of days. that is not the same story we are seeing in sterling against the euro. very range bound. it is still towards the lower end of its range. the bank of england is clearly in focus, probably not going to be that much. i think the market is always expecting chief economist will come out with hawkish parting remarks. i do not think there'll be any surprises over the summer. later in the year we could have more taper from the bank of england. we need to watch out for that.

that assumes the slow down in reopening does not impact confidence we still carry on and see the reopening of the economy takes place in july. tom: jane foley, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. i look at the 10 year yield, rounded out to 1.47%. i do not know where we were when you and i walked in the door, but we are bordering on a 10 basis point move. kailey: i think the lowest point in the session we were looking at a 1.36%. the move has been remarkable, not just today, but this follows yields getting whipsawed last week. your knee-jerk reaction on the back of the fed was yields higher, and then we saw that bid into the long end, we saw the flattening trade. maybe it had to do with short positioning being covered. the dynamics very interesting to watch because we are seeing the

selling pressure in the bond market. up two basis points. tom: the research is extraordinary. everyone is publishing with a frenzy. much different than a normal monday. you have to watch the vix, 20.36. i have to believe it explodes through a 19 level to show the calm in the market. kailey: we will wait and see. nasdaq 100 futures rolling over to the lowest we have seen since 4:00 eastern time. only up .2%. the s&p a little bit better. maybe the reflation trade will get back invoke. tom: he has a chemical engineer from india and he was at stanford and his father said come back to india and help build a startup company. he has done better than good. this is the qatar economic

forum. a real focus around the world. stay with us through the morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

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lisa: a volatile morning turning into a melt up. from the city, i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. the countdown to the open starts

right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: traders gearing up for another busy week in the markets. fed speakers and economic data on the agenda, plus bloomberg kicking off the qatar economic forum. bringing you live coverage week, including conversations this hour with bridgewater's ray dalio and former treasury larry summers and steven mnuchin. let's begin with the big issue. so long summer doldrums. >> there will be volatility. >> that is not necessarily a bad