tv Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg June 21, 2021 11:00pm-12:00am EDT
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coming up in the next hour, bitcoin, the crypto selloff shows no signs of reprieve. we will explain the technicalities and what they might foreshadow amid renewed crackdowns from china. plus, an exclusive interview with todd mckinnon. we will talk about the acquisition, big tech antitrust in the enterprise, and the task force as the delta variant takes off. why some employers fully embrace remote work and why some companies do not. we will discuss the fate of remote work in a mostly
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vaccinated u.s. bitcoin falling to a two-week low due to chinese regulators cracking down on crypto activities. the government has ordered crypto platforms to not provide links to trading cryptocurrencies. they were also ordered to cut off trading channels for crypto exchanges and over-the-counter platforms. i want to bring in joe weisenthal, host of "what'd you miss?" and ed ludlow to discuss. what does this crackdown mean? is it as bad as it sounds? joe: no, china has been cracking down on crypto every three months it seems. one thing that we knew was coming for a while, the sort of purging of a lot of miners. that has been expected for a while. that will likely move somewhere else. as for the crackdown on some trading, there was a bloomberg story in 2013 saying the same thing. according to our reporting, what happens now, the regulators had a call with some of the banks, saying, we mean this seriously. i feel that we are going to be
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living with "china is cracking down on crypto" headlines for the rest of our lives. emily: bitcoin has officially formed a death cross. we will explain some of the technicals and what that means. is that a hint for more pain and to come? ed: this is where the 50 day moving average falls below the 200 day moving average. normally for a security, this is a pretty bearish signal. you see get on the right side of your screen. but, bitcoin is not a typical security. all we can do is point to past precedent. we got this in march 2020 but it was no impediment to further gains. march 2019, another death cross, one month later, bitcoin was significantly lower. it is more narrow trading range. bitcoin struggling to push above 40,000 u.s. dollars, kind of teetering toward 30,000. the next phase, what happens if we breach 30,000? will bitcoin see dramatic falls? emily: we are still waiting also for the big decision from the sec about bitcoin etf's.
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you just had a conversation with elizabeth warren. does the fact that there is a delay here signal perhaps that the u.s. could take a stance on crypto? joe: it always seems like the hope, the dream, it is always right around the corner and the industry keeps getting disappointed. i don't have any special inside information but it does seem like no one is in a real big hurry in d.c. to get it done. it is clear there are a lot of concerns about crypto. there are concerns about the regulations of the exchanges. concerns about transparency. of course, all the recent headlines, they don't help either. i don't think anyone in d.c., the sec, is in any real rush to create a new avenue.
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some people are saying, we need something that is exchange traded, something people can buy from their ameritrade accounts rather than go somewhere else. right now, it seems these series of delays seem like a familiar pattern that the industry has seen for a while. ed: our colleagues at bloomberg intelligence out with research saying that the rationale for the decision to not approve bitcoin etf's is confusing. you look at jurisdictions outside the u.s., bitcoin etf's have worked well. they are a cheaper way for a bigger pool of investors to access or get exposure. when you look at the alternative, some of them are complex. you can invest in a stock like microstrategy where they have large holdings. you can invest in a trust where securities are all invested against bitcoin.
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basically, bloomberg intelligence questioning the rationality, saying, is it a bigger regulatory framework, bigger crackdown, and it is not so much about consumer protections. emily: bitcoin, not great. gold is significantly lower, but getting outshined by other options. what are the narratives in communities of normally fervent believers that you are hearing? joe: one of the things, as bitcoin rockets higher, suddenly there is a flood of new coins, the industry trying to sell you. parody coins, dogecoin. it has the effect of sort of blunting the buying power. instead of the money going into one order two coins, it goes into all the coins.
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after tesla and microstrategy, i think people were expecting multiple. people are sitting on life-changing amounts of money, maybe i will sell a little bit. momentum in both directions. it is very easy for crypto narratives to change. a few things going one way or the other way, suddenly, 13%, it is not that bad, but it feels very different than in march or april. emily: is bitcoin losing its reputation as the antiestablishment option? there are, as i said, other options out there.
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ed: a china crackdown is what is driving the market on monday. sometimes, an elon musk tweet, when we had the pipeline ransom attack, for example, how easily the fbi were able to use the blockchain technology, the ledger, to use some of those ransoms paid in it going. they were discussions around el salvador making it legal tender. the involvement of old-fashioned institutions in the market of bitcoin right now as well as all of the retail trade going on right now. emily: lots to watch, and we will continue that conversation right now. ed ludlow and joe weisenthal, thank you so much. i want to stick with bitcoin and the crackdown in china. we want to bring in bitcoin mining engineer brandon. what is your read on this crackdown in china?
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is it bad in the long-term or something else? brandon: this is fantastic news. it is a rite of passage for freedom technology to get banned in china. look at google, facebook. it is making nations shiver in their boots. the fact that markets are responding this way, i don't think they fully understand what is going on here. nations are now picking a side. china is responding like with google and facebook. that is extremely bullish for bitcoin in the long-term and medium-term. emily: what do you say to investors who bought in that are shivering in their boots, that their investment is not going to be what they thought it was? brandon: those investors are unfortunately not orange build like we are. in the long run, bitcoin will be where it needs to be. the volatility is the tax that we pay for being on the right side of this trade, the incredible trade in the long run
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that will be a huge dividend. emily: what is where it needs to be to you? we have heard to a million, to infinity and beyond, one lambo by the end of the year. what is your price prediction? brandon: i don't like to speak too much about price. in my mind, one bitcoin is one bitcoin and that will always be the case. the fact that chinese miners will have to shut down and go to the united states, the long-term trend that bitcoin is the greatest store of value in the history of planet earth, nothing is even comparable. when i have cash, it goes into bitcoin because i know what it is. it is the best savings mechanism. blips in hash-rate, geopolitical tensions, these are all along the way of bitcoin being universally identified as the greatest store of value you have ever seen.
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emily: how are the mining operations in china different than what is happening in the united states? brandon: in china, a phone call can be made and an entire mining land can be shut down. in the u.s., it is more tricky. we have things like state rights. texas becoming the capital of bitcoin mining in the united states. if the federal government tried to do something to texas to try to shut down miners, there will be lawsuits back and forth. they would be people with guns on the border of texas. greg abbott is a big supporter of bitcoin mining. it is getting stronger in texas, wyoming, florida. it is much safer than under a central controlling, dominant government like china. in the united states, it is likely to mine bitcoin forever than somewhere else.
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emily: speaking about power, are you at all concerned about the position that the u.s. government is going to take? we have not gotten a lot of signals but we do know that regulation is coming. brandon: regulation is coming i think more towards the exchange side. as we see this flow in from china, as we see them flow from china to texas, wyoming, and florida, we will see more demand for skilled jobs. campus managers, i.t. staff, booming industries in the states. what is going to happen, the governors, the local politicians, the mayors, they are going to double down. the positives for renewable energy development cannot be overstated. the federal government, they can have their own thoughts but we have states rights in this
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country and that will be a big boon to bitcoin in america. emily: if there were bigger mining operations in the united states, how do you think that what impact bitcoin adoption? brandon: clarity from the regulatory side, state leaders come out in favor of bitcoin. it is not just us weirdos on crypto twitter, but you have governors and mayors talking about it. the more politicians like greg abbott, the maker of miami, the more of these people we have endorsing bitcoin, the easier it is for other generations to get involved comfortably and get excited. emily: straight from miami, florida, bitcoin mining engineer brandon arvanaghi, thank you for joining us. coming up, the delta variant is gaining momentum and renewing debate about vaccine passports. will have an exclusive interview with okta cofounder and ceo todd mckinnon. where would we start if we want to do vaccine passports. this is bloomberg.
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case against the pandemic. emily: joshua sharfstein, johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health vice dean talking about the prevalence of the covid-19 delta variant. the johns hopkins school of public health is of course supported by michael bloomberg, the founder of bloomberg lp and bloomberg philanthropy. although the u.s. reports that 150 million americans have been fully vaccinated, there is still concern about the spread of that delta variant. warning of the possibility of a fourth wave. joining us, okta cofounder and ceo todd mckinnon. you come at this from the security perspective. if we were to do this, how would we make vaccine passports happen? i feel like we have to talk about the politics of it from the start. president biden saying they will not be a national plan for vaccine passports but other countries are doing it. is biden going the wrong way on this? todd: okta, we have 10,000
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customers and week help our customers connect their technology, their apps and services, with their customers. we know what it takes to integrate things that are online together. with the vaccine, we know that getting as many people as vaccinated as possible is the key to beating this virus. we have developed the technology with the amazing breakthroughs. now, we need to get online with the status of vaccination so we can help people operate at a local level understand who is vaccinated and who is not so we can safely get back to normal. you mentioned the federal level. i understand people in the united states. the previous guest was talking
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about federalism, which is very important, divided between the federal and state rights. we totally agree with that. we don't think the federal government should go to creating some sort of massive vaccine status database, but they could go a long way in creating the standards, both the de facto standards on how things should look and how data should be stored, and the technical standards. this could be trusted by users and organizations, going to a basketball game, going back to work, something we are very interested in. anything from local level all
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the way to states trying to make sure their state employees and citizens are vaccinated. i think we have standardization at the federal level along with implementation of this technology at the local level. emily: if we were to do something like that, where would we even start? it seems like such a massive undertaking given where we are right now. where would we start in terms of building this database and how would we make it secure? todd: we are already starting. the state of california recently announced that we have a simple online -- basically, it is an online copy of your paper card. different states are doing in different ways. different companies and organizations are doing it inconsistently. i think the federal government could start by saying, here is how it should work. here's the types of information that you need. vaccinated, yes or no? not a lot of extensive medical history. if you standardize, what kind of information, what it looked like, what it was appropriate to be used for, and then let people implement at that standard. here local government or company could implement an online system that could collect that information from whatever source they could get it from. we know how to secure these
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things. the whole world is moving online. we have the security technologies. we have to make this happen to get past the pandemic. emily: you and i have talked a lot about remote work and flexibility over the past year. i know that okta is taking a more flexible approach. as people return to the office, are you starting to see the benefits and is it impacting where you want the future to be for your company as so many companies are trying to figure out what to do? todd: it is a dynamic and
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uncharted territory. we figured out how to work remotely like the world did, now we are trying to figure out how to combine the best of both worlds. in person with the benefits of being remote. our underlying principle here is choice. we trust our employees to know what it takes to be effective at their job, effective with their team and make the right choice, whether it is working at home, coming in the office partially, a staggered schedule. on top of that, you have to ensure safety. we are confronted with the challenge of knowing who is vaccinated and who is not. we would benefit from the standardization of this. what we would say, to be in the office, you have to be vaccinated, the honor system of attesting to yourself. that gives the choice to people who are not vaccinated to stay home and work from home. emily: last month, okta completed its biggest acquisition ever, buying auth0. i wonder if you have thoughts of it from an enterprise perspective. you compete with microsoft, to a lesser extent, google.
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should microsoft be part of these antitrust conversations and what should be happening in the enterprise debate where the leaders have often gotten a pass because there are so many competitors? todd: there is definitely a battle going on. in our industry, it is a battle for neutrality, choice of independence, and a battle to be locked into what we have mentioned. we believe it is critical for your identity stack to be independent from any other platform. it should not come as part of your email, infrastructure software. it should give you choice because ultimately, identity is securely connecting you to all of the other technologies. by having your identity system being independent and neutral, it gives you that flexible linchpin to jump off to any other technology you need to be successful. that is why you see us in our company build the flex ability from the very core.
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emily: welcome back to "bloomberg technology." now for a look on the big market activity, want to bring in ed ludlow. what have you been watching? ed: i'm watching amazon, but not because of prime day. amazon is looking at a stake in a cupertino startup. one of the interesting details, they were going to order 1000 of the autonomous driving systems designed for semi trucks. they would also take a stake up to 20%. around $0.47 a share, the right
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to buy around 20% of the company. it is a pending spac deal. so, public via reverse merger. amazon is getting aside the only process. amazon bought zooks, in 2020. it's also invested in a battery electric pickup truck maker. i wanted to point out, shares not really doing anything based on this news or amazon prime day, a little lower on monday. year-to-date, kind of underperforming, trailing the s&p 500. you wonder going ahead, put e-commerce to one side, what is the big story for amazon? is it e-commerce, cloud? it is a question i am going to be asking. emily: ed, thanks so much for that update. meantime, back to prime day. shopping of course, one of the
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biggest shopping days of the year for amazon underway right now. this year customers might not be seeing the deals they may have hoped for. this, according to merchants, due to higher shipping costs and higher advertising rates. a lot of supply chain issues are continuing. melissa, every prime day it takes time to look at the deals and normally i do not find anything. full disclosure i did buy some lunchboxes today. i was preparing to talk to you about prime day for my kids. what was your take? are the deals good or worth skipping this year? melissa: i heard the same thing that you did, but in terms of rising costs and the fact there are all these supply chain issues that would squeeze profit margins and sellers could not have as great deals, but honestly looking at the deals, they are pretty good.
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when i think about prime day i think about 23andme, insta pot and headphones. they always have deals. there are also new players on the market. if you look at 23andme, that is one of the biggest deals they have. there are a lot of copycats. so there are more options for sure. emily: talk to us a little about the evolution of prime day. you worked at amazon for many years. prime day has had some bumps in the road. what has it taken to get to this point and coordinate all these deals on such a massive level? melissa: yeah. prime day is several years old at this point. the net of it is it's a big sales event. they really seem to rely on the ecosystem. they have now the evolution is influencers, which is a large
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part of prime day. it is a win-win for them because they take a revenue share. a lot of influencers are curating demand about these products. the net of the evolution is it is more. they have two million deals. everyone expects it and i know they need to prepare for prime day. the only issue is it is a moving target. this year it was moved into june. that makes it a bigger challenge for a lot of people, but they really do have the playbook they do again and again, and it is a deal day. emily: last year was a $7 billion event for amazon. this year expectations are round $10 billion. where do you think that number is going to fall? melissa: i think e-marketer predicted $11 billion, which is an 18% increase year-over-year. i think it will be a huge event, so that sounds about right.
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emily: and how does this set the stage for the second half of the year? we know that amazon is going to have a tough year-over-year comp because last year we were all on lock down, and now we are in a moment where the pandemic is starting to be slowly in the rearview mirror. and you have andy jassy taking over the company from jeff bezos in just a couple weeks. so the possibility for the second half will be on him. melissa: i really do think that they are going to have some kind of tentpole event in october again. i do not know if they can call it prime day v2 or what they are going to call it, but these problems of supply chains and increasing costs are going to continue and condense into that consolidated five day time. the big question is what they will call it. emily: so, why are these supply
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chain issues continuing? i mean, you would think that now 1.5 years into this they would have figured it out. but what are the problems continuing to persist that the folks on the other end of the amazon smile box does not necessarily see? melissa: all these issues that start with manufacturing in china with container ship shortages. there is a toy manufacturer that talked about a container cost to them $700 to $1200, and now it's $1000 to $1600 for that same container. we just see continued kinks in the supply chain system, and it is not something that just one year can fix.
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it will be an ongoing issue for a while. emily: so basically you are predicting a prime day two sometime any second half of the year. maybe in october. could this become a biannual event? melissa: i think so. i think the big question is what do they call it. but yes. emily: all right. well we will be looking out for that. always good to have you here on the show. thank you so much for stopping by. we will watch how the deals play out. coming up, at least 80% of employees who work from home during the pandemic want some aspect of remote work, as offices open backup. we are going to talk about whether that is feasible as many companies call for workers to return to the office in person. a professor from harvard business school is with us next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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emily: u.s. tech companies are continuing to outline different versions of their return to office plans, and as some of those policies become reality, it is important to note motivations and a data behind those plans. my next guest says more than 80% of employees say they want to retain some aspects of remote work, and of that number, 30% want to do it full-time. on the other hand, employers, some 70%, want people back in the office. for more on these tensions continuing to divide workforces, what is at stake, is tsedal neeley. she's a harvard business school
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professor of business administration. thank you so much for joining us. this is a raging debate at every dinner table across america right now. you have spent more than two decades studying remote work. what does the data telling you about the biggest tensions, and how these can ever be resolved? prof. neeley: that data, they are staggering and very clear. people want worklife flexibility. that is the term, worklife flexibility. they want autonomy. and they have earned the right to ask for this, because in the last 15 months or so, there is evidence that they can be very productive, while working from home without managerial oversight. so now, employers, on the other hand, want people back, and people are asking why. i don't want to the commute, i
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don't want the expenses to go to work, eat at work, have coffee at work. i want to have dinner with my family every night. why do you want me there? for what reason? emily: and yet there are companies who are saying you have to come back. are those companies going to be on the wrong side of history? are they going to lose talent? there are certainly legitimate reasons to want people to be in the same place, but as you say, there are so many workers that have a different idea in mind. prof. neeley: yes. there is no doubt that many companies, particularly in the finance sector, are wanting people back in the office and in person. we're talking about goldman sachs and jp morgan chase and morgan stanley, etc. but they are unique in this regard. other companies like pepsico, not necessarily in silicon valley.
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even the u.s. patent office is saying we will give you flexibility, but let's have a framework that will allow people to do this effectively. now, the question is what does that framework look like, and how can we make sure that we retain autonomy and flexibility? you saw apple announced their return to work policy, which is an every other day policy, and experienced backlash on the same day they announced their back to work policy, or framework. so it's really important to be very clear, why do you want people back? is it for collaboration, is it for innovation, is it for socializing? because if you ask people to come back into the office to do the exact same thing they could be doing at home, they are saying no thank you. they have discovered that worklife flexibility can exist, worklife balance was an
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aspiration that they could never achieve. now there's a new approach and there is no turning back. this is about looking forward, and those who are trying to go backward will be surprised. emily: it was really interesting to see tim cook present that plan and hear workers unhappy with it. i am wondering about ready companies like goldman, who are on the one extreme of the spectrum, do you think they lose workers? what happens if a company takes that extreme of a position? prof. neeley: if we look at the emerging data, it informs us. people were asked if we paid you $30,000 more a year to come into the office five days a week, would you do that? 67% said no thank you. there are also other studies which indicated 57% of employees who will not have the flexibility they so desire in their professional arrangement, will also quit.
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we're about to enter, according to earnst & young, one of the most competitive talent labor market places we have ever seen in our career. so, i am 100% convinced that the flexibility that people are asking for is going to be hiring a retention mechanism. and those who are saying no to this will be at a disadvantage in the war for talent. emily: i know we have been doing this for the last 1.5 years, but it is hard to imagine what this looks like in normal times. so take me ahead three years, five years. does the sort of workplace dynamic, is it completely different than what we have known for the last several decades? i mean, what does it look like? prof. neeley: that is one of my favorite things to do, to imagine the next three years or more. i think hybrid 2.0 is going to introduce physical spaces that
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are different than the ones we are familiar with. meaning that work will be a place for socializing and collaboration, and also comfortable. the same comforts that we are seeing in our homes. hybrid 3.0 i am firmly convinced will be a period where we are going to see the digital revolution play out in our workplaces. it's the nature of work that is changing. this is the thing that the companies who are demanding people to come back are not embracing. the nature of work is changing, so hybrid 3.0 is not about collaborating with sal and sally, it will be working with ai bots. we get this right now, we are actually preparing for the world of machine learning and artificial intelligence, data-driven work experiences,
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and of course automation as well. this is what i see three years from now, five years from now. emily: that is fascinating. thanks for imagining with us and painting that picture. of course a hot topic we are going to continue to talk about. tsedal neeley, professor at harvard business school, and author of "remote work revolution: succeeding from anywhere." appreciate you sharing your perspective with us, professor. coming up, the u.s. has the potential to get crypto wrong. that assertion and more from our recent interview with the coinbase cofounder and paradigm managing partner. we will hear more from him, and get you the view of the crackdown on crypto from china, next. ♪
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emily: if you are an avid crypto watcher you are paying attention to early crypto a doctor and coinbase cofounder fred ehrsam. he believes the blockchain will be the most world changing technology of the coming decade. on the latest edition of bloomberg studio 1.0 he talked about regulation and why the u.s. could get crypto wrong. take a listen. fred: so, i think the u.s. is at a very important crossroads with crypto today. the u.s. is blessed with the best currency in the world's best reserve currency today. it also tends to be the de facto regulator for a whole bunch of the world. we also have a history of being the strongest technology country in the world. if you look at the most valuable companies in the world today, most of them are american internet technology companies. microsofts, facebooks.
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i do think that crypto is a nuanced issue, and it is possible the u.s. gets crypto wrong. i think today you have a lot of regulators whose job it is to keep us all safe, and that is very appropriate. at the same time, i think crypto is the next internet-sized opportunity for the united states. i think it has the potential to create as many if not more jobs than the internet, similar to economic growth. i think it has the potential to square the circle on the privacy internet issues we have been talking about would big tech companies for the last 10 years. namely, we could use these technologies to continue to own our own data, while still getting the benefits of the internet platforms we know and love today. emily: china is taking a stand on crypto for better or worse, and that is also where most of the mining is happening.
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do you have concerns that china is going to beat the u.s. in crypto, and that is kind of a big deal? fred: technically, yes. and it is on multiple fronts, to your point. one is, there are government programs to explicitly build using crypto. this is true both with their initiative making a digital renminbi. it is also true of local government trying to use blockchain technology. to your point, historically, most crypto mining has been in china. recently there was actually a government crackdown in china on mining, oftentimes because energy was being siphoned from the chinese grid which may or may not have been kosher. i think there is a huge opportunity for minors in the u.s. to step in, and on the crypto side to make it more decentralized.
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if you want to view it from a nationstate point of view, to make sure that no single country is within control. emily: coinbase cofounder fred ehrsam, part of a much longer conversation you can catch at bloomberg.com or download the studio 1.0 podcast and watch and listen while you ride. as for the messaging coming around china, given the latest crackdown i want to turn to tom mackenzie joining us from beijing. there is a lot going on and i'm wondering if you could give us the big picture. some of the crackdown is happening regionally, not necessarily nationally. what are the high points we need to know today? tom: it really feels like the regulators here have taken their gloves off when it comes to battling the crypto space, particularly the minors and trading.
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going back one month, china's cabinet put out a statement saying they wanted to see a crackdown on mining and trading. now you will need to look at these provinces where a lot of the minors have relocated in recent years because of the abundance of cheap energy. provinces and areas like inner mongolia. those are areas where there has been a big growth in mining. as your previous guest was saying, china was home to arguably the majority of mining of cryptocurrency globally. about 65% of global mining was based in china. what we have seen is a ramp-up in terms of that crackdown. pulling in the banks and telling them to stop transactions. officials saying they're going to close down mines in that province in the next year. emily: ok. so what does this mean then for miners? and for investors overall? people are trying to make sense of what china is doing right now
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and what that means for them. tom: there are couple key reasons why officials are doing what they are doing. one is financial stability and control. they are worried constantly at the regulators here, that investors will get burned and that will lead to social unrest. that is a concern for them. there is also that energy use problem as well. china set a target of 2060 to be carbon neutral. when you have bitcoin mines and other crypto mines siphoning off some of this energy, it does not really align and dovetail with that longer-term goal of china to become neutral by 2060. but i remember going back to 2017, going and visiting mining in inner mongolia, at that point it was welcomed by officials because it was generating tax revenue, they crated jobs, and it was seen as a growth area. that has changed. you are seeing big miners increasingly investing in the u.s. emily: ok. look, we only have about one minute left.
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i am curious, there is a question of whether china will surpass the u.s. in terms of crypto power, or the center of gravity. is that not the right question to be asking? tom: it is hard to see how that is going to be the case now. but six months ago that would have been the right question to be asking. but given the extent of the crackdown we are seeing not just on mining but on trading, the fact you can go online and type in crypto exchange, it is senseless. that all points to a direction of travel for officials here, where they want to essentially eliminate the crypto space here when it comes to trading, mining, and these exchanges. what the focus is on is the pboc's efforts to develop its own digital currency. we have seen that rolled out and tested in places like the south of china, with some mixed results. they have said consistently this is not about undermining the u.s. dollar, but we know the u.s. is watching this very closely.
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emily: obviously all this happening in real time. tom mackenzie with us on a very early morning in beijing. thank you so much for joining us. that does it for this edition of "bloomberg technology." make sure to tune in tomorrow. we're going to be joined by the fcc commissioner. i am emily chang in san francisco. ♪
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