and next, very strong. >> what was more surprising was hearing cable talk start. >> about a year into the recovery, that is where we are. >> i don't know that we are going to go back to spending in the same way for buying the same kinds of things. >> of course the economy is experiencing friction. we rebooted the global economy. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, francine lacqua and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg television. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. equity futures this morning, unchanged on the s&p 500, a simple message coming from morgan stanley. get back to work and when you come back to work, you better be vaccinated. tom: today, john and i are totally on the same page.

read that statement from the director of hr. this is a hard-line approach, coming back to the office. it was john dropping -- it was jaw-dropping. see, and we see it throughout society. there is a lot of market activity to talk about. the delta variant is front and center. wall street's decision is to get vaccinated. jonathan: the counting in new york, we are going to be counting for a couple more weeks. tom: it is pretty straightforward.

we don't need to go into all the details. this is about crime, about public safety, a metaphor for every city around the world. the thing that absolutely stunned me is the gentleman from brooklyn, mr. adams did so well in the bronx. this is yankee stadium and north of new york, a pretty tough area. adams, 46%. the bronx voted for public safety. jonathan: lisa, it is about crime in new york city. lisa: eric adams, a former leader of the new york police department, but also has the experience of having been beaten by cops as a 15-year-old, trying to appeal to both sides. interesting to follow what you were talking about. progressive voices getting less attention as people focus on bringing the city back, both economically and from a quality of life perspective. jonathan: let's begin with the price action, muted on the s&p 500 following a couple days of gains. we are positive, 0.01%.

a bit excited on -- a bit of excitement on the euro-dollar. lisa knows why we started with that morgan stanley story. lisa: there is nothing else going on, even as we get a bunch of fed speak. yesterday we heard from the fed, john williams, as well as michael mckee, a fascinating interview, talking about a more dovish approach. also hearing from other leadership including jay powell. today, we will hear from michelle bowman and eric rosengren. the dissonance is still there in terms of who agrees with who. that said, the leadership coming out and saying we are going to be patient. it is transitory when it comes

to inflationary pressure. this to me is what i am watching when it comes to transitory pressures. u.s. may new home sales. however, in terms of inflation, home prices have gone up 24%, year over year as of may. that is a shocking and unprecedented statistic. this is one area where people are seeing inflation in space. people are buying up houses, however the increase in the appetite to buy post-pandemic as well as on the heels of very low to more g8 -- very low mortgage costs are raising potential for a bubble. the u.s. is going to sell $61 million in 5-year note's. it was interesting because it came in weaker than expected. jon, speaking to this concern, this preparation for a taper and potentially higher rates down the line jonathan: your favorite

-- down the line. jonathan: your favorite, the seven year. tom: there was a goal. jonathan: it was a commercial for football, worldwide, that game right there. a commercial for fed speak. we will do that a little bit later. this quote from the cleveland fed, i think we will get more clarity as we get through the summer and get to september. james gorman really pushing this idea of getting back to work and if you are not here by september, we will revisit this. many economists revisiting things at the end of summer, when the additional ui expires and we get back to school. lisa: what is interesting to me is the fact that j.p. morgan and goldman sachs are coming out with a very specific protocol for when people have to be back in the office.

morgan stanley saying we will be more flexible but if you are not here by labor day, it is -- if you are not here by labor day, forget about it. jonathan: this is a direct quote, i think, that we will have a different kind of conversation. we will have a different kind of conversation. tom: i think you had that five days ago. jonathan: i think you and i have that on a daily basis. the head of cao market strategy for maryland bank joins us now. how hard is it to revisit in september? >> we have to watch the variant. we have to see how the inflation numbers come in. i think we will grind through it. we are in that transitory base of inflation but you have second-quarter gdp at 15% and i

think that is kind of peak growth, and then we worked down from there. markets will price that in as we go deeper into the summer. tom: frankly, joe quinlan, the adaptation of corporations to a nominal gdp slow down we have never seen, how do they adjust? joseph: you are right in the sense of the corporate. i think they are terribly resilient. we are looking for operating leverage, i am astounded how much companies are using automation, doing less with more. we reset at a lower level. they are still going to drive earnings higher.

but never underestimate how resilient the corporate sector is. lisa: this raises questions about the consumer dynamic, about the spending power of individuals, who may be increasingly left out of the labor markets if there is more automation. at what point do you see that spending power decline anymore material way? joseph: we still have a lot out there. my colleague with the bank is looking into the households and there is still a lot of liquidity out there. they want to go to restaurants but it is closed. they want to travel to europe but you can't do it yet. normalization when it comes to consumer spending, that is a story for 2022. we may bring back that 3.5 percent growth, and that is how we get there, an unvolitale --

unvolatile -- jonathan: do you like europe right now? joseph: we do, for sure. buy the countries, what they do best. europe has really turned a corner. i have been bullish my whole career on europe but they are turning the corner and we are seeing good fundamentals coming in. i am more optimistic and i really think that the southern periphery, they are going to outperform economically and in the markets as well. i don't like i've ever said that . jonathan: and nobody talks about brexit anymore. joe quinlan, merrill and bank of

america private bank head of cao orchestra g -- cio markets are the g -- market strategy. tom: folks, jon ferro delivered the goods on brexit. the shock of brexit was on 14 hours straight. i was at charlie's. jonathan: i know where you were. i've talked about that story many times. our member sitting in front of the bloomberg with you, and what was important about that moment, it felt like a moment, like something big was happening, and then the clock just started ticking and nothing happened for years and years, and here we are. the pound against the u.s. dollar, the low is !.1485.

that had nothing to do with brexit whatsoever. lisa: the idea that the united kingdom had a much better response to the covid pandemic than the continent did in terms of vaccination. i wonder how much that changed the dialogue. jonathan: without a doubt, when it came to some -- to signing some of these contracts, it had a massive boost of support to brexit, in a way -- it underlined the ability of the u.k. had to act alone and the be accuracy -- and the bureaucracy that has held back europe for quite some time. we want to see the whole world get vaccinated but the u.k. secured of contracts and had more flux ability -- flexible at bility. tom: i was thunderstruck.

lisa: to these letters to numbers mean something -- do these letters to numbers mean something? tom: i got a decent meal at charlie's. jonathan: lovely. a little bit of movement in crude. from new york city this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the "first word news," i am ritika gupta. there have been talks about a meeting between chinese foreign minister -- and the u.s. secretary of state, as well as a possible phone call between president biden and xi jinping.

a pro-democracy newspaper is to publish their last issue tomorrow. they face intense recent pressure from the government. authorities arrested the top editors and froze the company assets under a new national security law. morgan stanley has told employees they will need to be vaccinated against covid vanke -- against covid-19 to enter offices. essay about 90% of returning employees have already had their shots. -- has raised their four-year profit estimations after a big rebound in demand. they now expect organic profit growth from occurring operations of about 16%, up 10%. the company says the listing -- led to -- global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake,

powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is the first early

voting count. we know that. we know there was going to be 2 's and 3's and 4's. there is something else we know. that new york city said, our first choice is eric adams. jonathan: new york city mayoral candidate eric adams there as the counting continues. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. yields are higher by about a basis point and the euro-dollar unchanged. check out dollar-yen, the highest level since march 2020. a move about -- a move of about 4/10 of 1%. tom: a big deal, and we have seen a lot of shake off.

coming out and looking for significant we weaker yen. we are trying to get beyond the mundane. we know the mundane results and ranked choice across all of the five boroughs in new york. our bureau chief, ownership of this story. i was thunderstruck by the results of the comparison in brooklyn and bronx. these are two boroughs, i know there is a major difference on a per capita income basis between brooklyn and bronx. mr. adams clobbered the progressive in the bronx. why? >> eric adams ran a campaign around the entire city. he had been in the city for a

long time. he was the brooklyn borough president. he had that in his pocket. he went out around the city and really campaigned for harlem, the bronx, a huge proportion of the black vote, we are expecting to go to adams. you saw other candidates like wiley not even go out and campaign in some of those places. tom: why would she not compete with mr. adams for the african-american vote? shelley: i think she did campaign for the african-american vote that it was more of the progressive very left liberal leaning african-american vote, not the necessarily law & order more conservative. tom: lisa is more articulate on this. i am thunderstruck by these results and this issue of folic safety in new york. lisa: i am not under struck because of what i've observed, in terms of the priorities and

different areas. the idea that quality of life has deteriorated significantly. people are concerned about someone who can restore some order. shelley, what are the additional 12 rounds of county and -- counting and how will they affect the results given the fact that there is a pretty decisive majority at this point? shelly: we looked back at other ranked choice elections in the u.s. 350 of the 375 went to the first choice winner, the person who got the most first choice votes. the likelihood is that eric adams is going to go on and really clench this race. because of ranked choice, because of all these rounds, there are a lot more votes to distribute, and also a lot more absentee votes that we don't know where it is going to go to. it leaves it open for captain garcia or maya wiley. lisa: do we have a sense of how long this is going to take or if this was successful?

it did bring up more voters and attendance was higher than people expected? shelly: yesterday, when it was raining and storming, you cannot discount it that much. i was worried about the turnout. we had reporters out around the city, talking to voters, and a lot of them saying no lines, people weren't waiting like they were for the u.s. presidential elections. i was concerned about voter turnout. the numbers we have already shot was higher than the 2013 election, but that was to be expected. we still don't know exactly how many, because we are still waiting to count all of the absentee votes. tom: is new york city this morning, more liberal, more left? shelly: i think new york city is focused on quality of life and crime like they said.

these are very brass tech issues. i step out my door in the morning and i want to know, is it going to be safe if i take the subway? is the trash going to be picked up? it is not even about the politics at this point. tom: i haven't been beneath 59th street in for years. jon mentioned some of the trash is huge down south -- trash issues down south of manhattan. jonathan: we have much bigger issues like crime. iron member hearing a story about jp morgan, the biggest private employer in new york city. the story is as follows. bill de blasio had never had a meeting with the ceo, jamie dimon. i find that absolutely ridiculous. my question is who's going to work with these companies with roots in the city and what does the outreach look like? shelly: eric adams in almost every candidate we interviewed leading up to this race said we

want a different administration, working with the private sector, working with these companies. mayor bill de blasio ran on a platform that said i don't want to take any advice or issues from these companies. eric adams in particular, could change that. tom: i will ask a rude question. adams put up a mets jersey last night. i believe the owner of the mets did provide funding for mr. adams and others. is mr. adams in the back pocket of the fancy people? shelly: he did get the second-most amount of money that we've been able to count from a lot of these wall street donors. these are the folks who are interested in charter schools. that is one of the issues that adams has said, education is not just necessarily about public school children but all children. that is quite a difference from mayor de blasio, and part of the

reason why the owner of the mets supported him. jonathan: shelly banjo, thank you very much. it was a mets pitcher who got pulled aside by the authorities to check for illegal substances. tom: you nailed it. jacob graham -- jacob degrom, who is having may be the best pitching year in the history of the game, was stopped at the first baseline and checked. he is such a class act. he went through it with the umpires. jonathan: how much trouble do you get in when i am not here? lisa: yes. tom: who, me? hr is my new best friend. lisa: honestly, i think this is a huge election, especially because of what you're talking about, the quality of life taking precedence. jonathan: euro equity markets up

four. tom: should we have her back? jonathan: not her first rodeo. good morning, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. here is the price action this wednesday. equity futures building on the gains of the last few days. the s&p advancing about a 10th of 1%. we switch of the board and get to the bond market. shout out to matt miller, who talked about the treasury market on a round-trip. we opened up wednesday morning for that fed decision and right now your 10 year, just a couple basis points away. a round-trip, but the positioning has changed. a lot of damage done to sentiment around treasuries. td looking to reenter and reset. right now, your 10 year yield up about a basis point.

your two year advances as well. i will finish on the commodity market. wti and brent, breaking 75 again. up 7/10 of 1%, taking another bite out of stockpiles. tom: that trend is extraordinary. i did the plot from $60 a barrel. it is linear. there is just no end in sight. a real persistency. jonathan: and we caught up with francisco from bank of america who teed up the idea that maybe these numbers right here have an extra digit. triple digit crude by next year. tom: $100 a barrel, $110 was roughly the average any number of years ago. i should point out, he looks for supply to come in after a year or two and then we pulled back

to $65 a barrel. that is -- and then we pull back to $65 a barrel. -- wildly eclectic and controversial. a new addition of foreign affairs magazine. can china keep rising? george marshall is with us this morning with an absolute tour de force. i pick up the magazine and like everybody else, i read the commercials, the advertisements and then i go to the table of contents. this is wildly eclectic. i want you to inform our audience about the adversarial environment of -- who is he? george: good to see you. he is one of the people in china, one of the most respected analysts of the world of international politics in china. he has for a long time been one of the most prominent chinese

advocates of a cooperative u.s.-china relationship. what we ask him to do, was to tell us from china's perspective, how does this deterioration in the relationship between the two countries, between two superpowers look? we know exactly what we see leaders in -- we ask this advocate of a cooperative relationship to tell us what that looks like from beijing's perspective. what he tries to do is get a situation in which the united states as he tells it is going out of its way to threaten some of the interests of china, something xi jinping sees as integral to power. tom: the tour de force of your academics as george marshall not

only but -- not only with the chaos of china but the chaos of u.s. policy. what is the chaos of president xi's policy right now, domestically? what are the challenges xi has, as china continues to keep rising? daniel: a great question. if you go back to the beginning of this year, think about how good a position xi jinping seem to be in. the united states appeared to be in polygonal chaos -- in political chaos. the u.s. was struggling to control covid, china was shipping vaccines all across the world. in six months, that has seemed to shifted. xi jinping is on the rocks in the origins of the virus. the questions of what china failed to do, the way they

failed to communicate and suppressed information. you have the u.s. and others in the west starting to pick up in the china outlook is not looking too good. population is slowing pretty rapidly, in a situation in which top -- in which population is going to be shrinking very soon. obviously there is one in western countries as well, but it is much greater from the chinese perspective. if you are xi jinping, this desperate frantic effort to use a short window of time, to try to overcome some of these challenges. what emerges through these pieces, whether you are looking at economic reform, whether you are looking at xi jinping's attempts to hold onto power for the indefinite future. you see him creating these real weaknesses in the system, and the question is, are those

weaknesses going to emerge and drag him and china down before they are able to overcome some of these problems? lisa: are you saying china is in a much weaker position today than pre-president trump and pre-pandemic? daniel: if you go back almost a decade, when you saw china start to engage with the world more, trying to reform its economy, the narrative we have seen in the west over this 10 year period, since the first meeting between president obama and xi jinping, he has changed the fundamental direction of china. for a long time, the narrative in the west has been one of this march forward and if you scratch below the surface across all of these areas, you see a pretty perilous situation, and a lot of risk for them that they are trying to overcome.

you have a pretty significant effort in beijing to address these problems, but the environment is only getting worse and the question is -- that is going to add new challenges. lisa: how does public sentiment within china way into this -- weight in to this? during president trump, sentiment for xi jinping actually improved in china. daniel: this is a really hard thing for any of us not sitting in china to have a pure idea on. you've had predictions of the fall of the chinese communist party for decades and decades, and its success economically and tools it uses to suppress dissent is given it a grip on power that is pretty secure. public sentiment is not what we know or have a hard time knowing within china, just seeing how dramatically the world has

shifted against china. if you look back four or five years when views of china and the rest of asia and the united states and europe were reasonably good, those have just turned sour so quickly. this period when the international -- under president trump and covid and the economic situation could have given xi jinping a chance to solidify global real -- global leadership in some ways. what you have seen instead as the world turning against him. it is a staggering missed opportunity. tom: orville shelf graces your pages this month. he has seen five or six chinas since world war ii. his perspective on the future of president xi's china? daniel: one of the great observers of china and chroniclers of china in the united states.

looking back at 100 years of the communist party, china is going to have a big celebration marking its history. it will try to tell a very particular story of what the chinese coming's party is and what its history looks like. when orval looks back at this as somebody who has lived it very directly and chronicled the very powerful the last several decades, he sees a much more complicated story than the one xi jinping is going to try to tell us the summer. orville is very sad about the course of china and the lack of access the people like him have to a country they have traveled in and lived in for many decades. he sees a more uncertain future then that triumphant clear certain image that xi jinping is trying to pervade. also a degree of hope that there will be changes in china. jonathan: always good to catch up. the situation is not changed as

far as the u.s. and the rest of the world. the u.s. and europe, we heard about this multilateral approach to deal with big issues. when it comes to china, germany, italy, still reluctant to come on the ride the u.s. wants to go on. tom: you see it day by day. hsbc in hong kong and the challenges of apple daily. if you are a major bank, say morgan stanley, we talked yesterday it -- we talked more about mr. gorman. you come off the hong kong airport years ago and see those famous morgan stanley billboards in the hong kong airport. are they going to be there in 10 years? jonathan: if you want to be there, the only one opinion matters and that is the chinese communist party. your opinions better lineup with ayers otherwise your presence is questionable -- line up with

theirs, otherwise your presence is questionable. lisa: it is very hard to go up against the chinese state backed banks, with any sort of profitable results. jonathan: the final word on this tom? tom: i think lisa is dead on. it is about profit and i had a piercing conversation years ago with ken lewis. he ran a small bank out of charlotte. ken lewis was heated. he didn't see where the prophets were in asia. lisa: one final comment, domestically. i think china and the threat has been unbelievably galvanizing in the united states with respect to passing certain legislation. talking about showing up supply chains and investing in tech. a very divided washington, d.c. was able to come together and pass some legislation. to me that is a notable shift. jonathan: it continues to be the one issue we have agreement on, down and washington, d.c. from new york city, good morning.

your equity market up three points on the s&p. yields are higher by a single basis point. the rally in crude continues. wti, 73.70 -- this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the "first word news," i am ritika gupta. republicans blocked -- it shows the limited power democratic lawmakers have an evenly split senate. iran says the main issue stalling the nuclear deal leads to penalties going back to 2013, as the country prepares for the president-elect.

the chief of staff says the u.s. has agreed in principle with their cannot -- let the economic sanctions put in place by former president trump. the wait time for the -- has hit a record 18 weeks. research shows that is up by seven days from the previous month. the gap is already the most since they began tracking data back in 2017 and four weeks longer than the previous peak in 2018. a breakup. a pharmaceutical giant says it will carve out its -- and cut dividends by about 30%. in a statement said -- in a statement, they say -- on the london stock exchange. the move is said to be part of a strategy set out in 2018 to sharpen the company's focus on developing drugs for cancer, hiv and other diseases. jisi --

i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if you are a country that is highly vaccinated like the u.s. is, the delta variant is going to cause problems but it is not going to put you into crisis. if you are a country where there is not enough of your hourly population vaccinated, the delta variant could put your hospitals back to where they were in the beginning of this pandemic. jonathan: the latest concern in the never ending pandemic. from new york city this morning, good morning alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i am jonathan ferro. pricing action looks like this. yields are higher on a 10 year,

up by about a basis point. euro-dollar, 1.1949. $73, wti. tom: you did better than yesterday. jonathan: just went over and over again, just to get it right. lisa: i am calling dr. phil. good luck. jonathan: i imagine how much that would cost. carreon, tom. tom: always with the blue ribbon and emergency services in john's -- in johns hopkins, lauren sauer joins us on the pandemic. i want to look at the houston methodist, the acclaimed houston methodist where they said if you are not vaccinated, you are not working here. i don't have the exact number, think it was 150 people who were

shown the door. morgan stanley has said if you are not vaccinated, you are not walking in the door. is that where we are heading? lauren: i think that is where we are heading. a lot of places will wait to get that final fda approval for one or more of the vaccines but the second we see that, we are going to see a lot more companies, a lot more private institutions going that way for sure. jonathan: on the delton varian -- on the delta variant, from the data you have seen, we have broken that link between cases, hospitalizations and deaths. lauren: yes, as long as we continue to push forward with vaccination efforts. the challenge of the delta variant is it easily seems to be taking advantage of places where vaccination rates are low, and that is where we see that link continue to happen so we see the people -- worm this way into populations that have lower vaccination rates, and then you

have hospitals suddenly overrun again, and people are getting really sick and dying. the key to continue to keep that broken chain going -- broken chain broken is that we keep pushing forward with the vaccination strategies, evenly feel like we are not making a lot of progress, and identify those pockets of low vaccination, whether it is due to hesitancy or access and try to support countries and communities, any areas that don't have high vaccination rates. jonathan: the question i have for you, is this a health care system issue? or is this just one of individual risk. in america, you have that luxury, so is this about individuals and it is up to them to take the risk or is this about -- up to them to contain

the risk or is this about the system more widely? lauren: i think it is both. i know that is not a satisfying answer but individuals who are not getting vaccinated are choosing to take that risk, or there is some barrier we need to support them in fixing and resolving. if that path continues without any intervention from public health or our health care experts without any ongoing efforts to understand why they are taking that risk or understand why they are not able to are not able to or willing to access vaccine, then the risk grows and the spread continues, and we don't stop that chain of transmission. even though it feels like an individual risk only issue right now in the united states, it is a risk to all of us, if we let vaccination rates continue to stay low in certain areas. lisa: i want to finish where we started, morgan stanley telling employees to just get vaccinated

and come back to the office, otherwise we will have a serious talk. there is a question going forward about exactly what you were saying. fda approval happens, all of a sudden morgan stanley is basically the example for private businesses and perhaps even public schools around the country when they say get a vaccine and then you can come back. how far away from getting that fda approval are we? lauren: i think we are close. both moderna and pfizer have submitted materials. this will also have downstream impacts for vaccines that are going to apply for emergency use authorization. we just saw novavax very good output from their study. will future vaccines go for emergency use authorization, or will they port -- will they push into the full approval pathway? we're going to see more vaccines going for full approval, and

that conversation about whether vaccines are mandatory is going to have to happen really quickly, right on the tales of that. jonathan: johns hopkins associate professor of emergency manager -- of emergency medicine. morgan stanley told their employees if you want to come back to the offices, you have to be vaccinated. the second part of that story is you have to come back to the office, so you have to get vaccinated if you want to work for morgan stanley. tom: i have no idea how this turns out legally. i wonder, would you carry it over to airplanes or other things we take for granted? are you going to be able to get into an uber if you are not vaccinated? jonathan: i don't know. i did say earlier that there is not much first mover advantage here. you can get a lot of criticism. lisa: frankly, there is also the liability risk. if you don't have some sort of health barriers that prevent the spread of the virus that is

potentially mutating. jonathan: they said if you want to come back to the office, you need to have a vaccine to come into the office. tom, the additional -- it is a little bit nuanced, isn't it? tom: a question about that. we are going to learn by experience and i think it is going to be a day to day grind, particularly through the summer as people set up for fall, labor day, back to school, back to the job. this headline out, most interesting. russia fired warning shots near a british ship in the black sea. jonathan: not much movement and price action on futures. just a little bit of a tickler.

coming up, brian levitt, invesco global market strategist. futures are not changed. for our audience worldwide, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, simulcast starts next. ♪

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♪ >> the fed is not going to kill this recovery lisa: we've got -- this recovery. we've got gdp growth this year and next very strong. >> growth generally peaks about a year into the recovery. that's kind of where we are. >> i don't know that we are going to go back to spending in the same way. i don't know that we will go back to buying the same kinds of things. >> of course the economy is experiencing some friction. we rebooted the global economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures this wednesday morning totally unchanged for the s&p 500, positive 0.01%. a headline crosses from