>> i'm not surprised also to hear the language of fed chair jay powell. they are committed to going at this gradually. >> i think more surprising in the market was hearing taper talks start. >> growth generally peaks about a year into the recovery. that is kind of where we are. >> whether it is fiscally or consumption, there is really nothing we see out there right now. >> of course the economy is experiencin some friction. we rebooted the global economy. tom: good morning, everyone.

a simulcast on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. we welcome you. equity markets churn across all asset classes. nevertheless interesting, and we are having great conversations. if you are in the stock market, you've got to belong here or short. we've got to be -- we've got to learn about that in the moment. jonathan: an important point for the last several months, it is not about the taper. it is not about the fed. it is about peak growth. that is the dominant factor at play. put aside what's happened in the last week with the fed and the treasury market. 10 year nominal yields topped out at the end of march. the yield curve topped out at the end of february. that's been the story in the bond markets for quite a while. the additional spice to all of this is the emphasis shift from the federal reserve i have to say, it is about a shift of emphasis. all they did is highlight a more balanced balance of risk around the outlook. it wasn't even a shift in the outlook. it certainly wasn't a shift in the reaction function.

that was a lot -- that was enough to unlock a lot of nervousness in this market. tom: i would point out the vix under 17 gives me some enthusiasm. i look at where we are, and there it is again, international relations intrude in the black sea. lisa: perhaps on the international level, people are aware of this. me this is incredibly important, the fact that this does not shake markets at all. how vulnerable are markets even at these elevated valuations, given how much money there is that needs to be put to work? tom: turkish lira, 8.64. it has really had a couple of tough days here. it is a little stronger this morning, but we will leave it there. help me with the data check. i'm looking at the dow futures, up 25. the vix, 16.58. jonathan: unchanged on the s&p. on euro-dollar come on the 10

year. euro-dollar, $1.1941. coming off the bounce for the s&p, the s&p 500 bordering to 36. tom: mike wilson has been brilliant, trying to go back and forth in the nuances of the equity market in this great bull market. mike wilson with morgan stanley, is the great bull market over? mike will and i don't think it is over. this is the typical pause we get as we go from early to mid cycle. the peak rate of change is what we have been focused on, whether it be gross measures or earnings growth data, but also policy. the fed has kind of pivoted a bit to start the long process of removing monetary accommodation. have we been focused on money supply growth?

because in a world where you are on the global -- on the zero bound globally, the key determinant of whether monetary policy is accelerating or decelerating is into growth. we think that has had a very large impact on the speculative parts of asset markets. obviously crypto is part of that. very expensive, unprofitable companies and things like that. they have corrected significantly because at the margin, the accommodation has already been deteriorating. jonathan: when it comes to the debate away from the index level , the churn, the rotation, growth versus cyclicals, what does that look like for you and the team now? mike: the beginning of the year, the call was rates are going to go higher. it took out the very expensive long-duration assets. that was the beginning of the

correction. then it shifted to low-quality names starting to come off the boil. now the market is going after the reflationary assets that are bubbly ran up a little too far, but the inflows of money are still so good. the money doesn't leave the market. it just looks for another place to go. longer duration growth stocks have done better as rates go down. people say if the rate of change is peaking, i want to go where the growth is. the problem is it is very difficult to trade for people because it is full whopping back and forth. this is all normal during the midcycle transition. this is what always happens. this is what you get. it is a chop, a churn. it is not as easy as it was last year. we are probably in three to six months of this pattern. lisa: can you draw a distinction between the rate of change in the money supply, the amount of cash in the system, versus the actual amount?

we saw this catastrophic increase. i'm looking at the into chart right now on the bloomberg terminal. it is just fascinating to see how massive the growth has been. why is that not enough to keep the rally going given the fact that we are also getting the economic recovery? mike: at the index level, we haven't really seen a correction. the rate of change movement in into or whatever money sue -- in m2 or whatever money supply growth you're looking at is causing the internals to move around a lot. the deterioration in the money supply growth is causing the more speculative parts of the market to underperform, whereas it is becoming a higher quality bid, maybe markets moving towards valuations. until we see outflows from the equity market, it is a sideways chop. so the action is in the internal

s. tom: when you talk to your analysts, when you sum up s&p earnings, can you get up to $250 statistic like some of the optimists geico -- optimists? mike: maybe in five years. [laughter] we think that is another risk, that the peak rate of change on growth has also been reached. something we have been focused on a lot here is that the first quarter benefited from two fiscal stimuluses that were enormous. it also benefited from the run-up in cryptocurrencies, and some of that leaked into the real economy. so we are focused on people now and utilizing this q1 from a margin and growth standpoint, so we are having a hard time getting to 210 for the next year . part of that is because we are

begging and some tax increases, but we think margin assumptions have now gotten a little too aggressive. we think the earnings story needs to be tempered back, and we saw the beginning of that last week with some of the financial companies talking down guidance a bit, which is why those stocks underperform. tom: i don't mean to step on you, but this is the heart of the matter. you've got an earnings analysis, and every interview we do is different and nuanced. it really is the heart of the new to get through the summer. jonathan: around earnings season, it was execution risk. that is what you were discussing her get when it comes to margins, what is the cost pressure that you are worried about? mike: i think the one we have to pay attention to the most because this is the one that will probably cause the fed to move the or not his wages. so labor is an enormous input to most companies' cost structures. the materials and some of the

commodities is somewhat transient because obviously it is self-correcting. there is demand destruction. but labor seems to be a bit more structural. we did destroy some of the labor supply in the pandemic and the lockdown. people are retiring earlier given the windfall of asset rices, and also the movement of labor around the country. people don't live where they want to live to meet the job openings. that part of it is really important to watch over the next couple of months. lisa: what is the direction of the turn? what is set to outperform over the next three to six months? mike: what is the best asset? lisa: the direction of the churn under the headline number of the index. mike: we are pretty bearish at the index level because we are having a hard time getting much of -- much above 3900, 4000 at year end. we are trying to any -- to make money at the sector level.

we still believe in the reflation, inflationary story. bank and material stocks have corrected. growth areas, i think you've got to be really selective in terms of what you pay. we have been favoring the higher quality growth areas that are more reasonable price. it would include some of the faang stocks. and then health care we think is a very interesting area where there's probably pent-up demand as opposed to payback in demand from last year because we put off healthcare services and whatnot. those are areas we are focused on right now. we will continue to have an open mind and if lexa was the market changes. jonathan: mike wilson of morgan stanley, get to catch up. the chief u.s. equity strategist. we think about this arc it for now and the year ahead. tom: i think this goes down to the pro analysis intention. all of these people are sticking their neck on the line every single day, thinking as hard as they can about the core ideas, and i would suggest into earnings season, the core idea

is this number out into the future in earnings. there is wide disagreement. jonathan: the call a concern for the team over at jp morgan, the risks ahead. lisa: the inflationary pressures and employment tensions. i got to say, the m2 supply, the fact that the rate of change has declined and that that, they say, is behind the underperformance of bitcoin, i think that is fascinating. jonathan: this is why you always need to cite your source. we talked about the russian defense ministry giving its side of what is happening between the u.k. the u.k. saying no warning shots fired at its ship in the black sea, so there you go. that's the account from the u.k. tom: the russians to make a distinction did not say fired at the ship. i believe they said they fired a bit of a distance away. jonathan: we should get both defense ministry's on the phone, tom. do around table. day three of the qatar economic forum.

right now, a conversation on investing for a new age with the ceo from the qatar investment authority and the blackstone ceo and chairman. bloomberg subscribers can watch on life go -- on live . this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. warren buffett has resigned as a trustee at the bill and melinda gates foundation as the charity grapples with the upheaval created by the divorce of its founders. buffett says his goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation. buffett also announced he has reached the halfway mark in giving all of his berkshire hathaway shares to jerry. former -- to charity. former new york police captain

eric adams leads the mayoral primaries. andrew yang has dropped out. guardian angel founder has won the republican nomination. the biggest property deal on the less biggest strip in more than a decade opens tomorrow. it features 3500 hotel rooms, celine dion and residency. construction at the site began back in 2007, but was halted by the recession. honda is phasing out sales of gasoline vehicles. honda is set to make a target of 2042 have all electric cars. the automaker also plans to unveil three new electric motorcycles by 2024. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

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>> right now the key issue for the fomc is wind as the economy get to this point where we meet

these conditions we have set out in time for the lift off of the funds rate. jonathan: that was john williams, the federal reserve bank of new york president from new york city. tom: serious kick -- seriously, what did you think? what you think of the williams interview? jonathan: when i asked him whether being vague was a feature of policy, he said he wasn't vague, so there you go. tom: you absolutely nailed it. he didn't want to talk about any of that. jonathan: this is the problem with policy at the federal reserve. they didn't want to give statements, they don't want to give numerical thresholds, but they will tell you it is about the data. it is about the data, but we won't give numerical thresholds. tom: westin would have just

stopped the interview. jonathan: went roundabout for about 20 minutes. tom: you did a great job trying to crowbar out of him. right now, david westin, the star of our coverage last night. we got to get to russia, crimea. you have an important guest coming up on balance. just a simple question will of the debts with all of your work in manhattan over the years, did your qamar left last night? -- did new york become more left last night? david: no, we think it is going to be eric adams, and you can't really call and left. the race for comptroller, that went decidedly left. the city council may goad left -- mago left, so we may have a divided government -- may go left, so we may have a divided

government. tom: new mayor, new this, new that, and 51 council members, a lot of them will be new. david: a lot of the challenge for eric adams will be managing that challenge. he's been the borough president of oakland, so he has experience, but it is not the easy thing. this the second hardest job in the country. it is going to be hard. lisa: eric adams, but he faces going forward, are we going to be looking at eric adams as the mayor? did the tiered voting work? david: time will tell that. there are a lot of complaints out there just because it was so confusing. you had 13 candidates, five choices, and a city as complicated as new york, and it doesn't have a great track record on handling elections smoothly and efficiently. we will see whether it works. but we don't know the ultimate result. we won't know for some weeks. but if you look historically, overwhelmingly, the person who is number one coming out of the first round ends up being on

top. lisa: going forward, let's talk about what the divided government means for the city that is the financial center of the united states trying to recover from the pandemic. what does it mean in terms of job cuts when it comes to city workers? what does it mean in terms of the budget and keeping some of the financial centers here is a growing number try to move elsewhere to cheaper locales? david: it is going to be a big challenge but for eric adams, if he is mayor, as well as the new controller, to balance the budget forward. they will get some help out of washington. there's still a pot of money that will help a fair amount. but one thing we do know for sure is what new yorkers want to come out of this regime, whether it is eric adams someone else, which is a little more peace and calm in the streets. it is a quality-of-life issue more than anything else going into this election. tom: there was a movie in our youth called "saturday night fever." a guy named travolta was in it.

there's an image not movie where he is looking over here. we have to remind ourselves, the dominance of oakland and queens within the five boroughs. everybody, particularly in our national audience, things it is manhattan, manhattan, manhattan. david: brooklyn is the most populous of the five boroughs, and it would rank pretty high as a city on its own if it were by itself. i had actually just moved to new york when "saturday night fever" came out. tom: are you in the movie? you should see ferro dance. [laughter] david: but to your point, i moved here in 1977, and it was a different manhattan than it is today. a lot of the fears going into this election are are we going back in that direction. a lot of people fear that. tom: the news has changed. russia and the black sea. you have a terrific asked coming up. david: the president of the

council of foreign relations, we will be asking exactly what is going on. as you said, there's a conflict of reports right now about whether in fact russia did fire on the db destroyer or not. -- on the british navy destroyer or not. there's an issue in crimea that is not going away. russia think they have sovereignty over crimea. the rest of the world does not recognize that. they will keep running ships by there. tom: some of the headlines from the united, they do not recognize that bombs were dropped on their defender. they say the vessel was conducting innocent passage. jon, were you in that movie, innocent passage? it was great. jonathan: they believe the russian defense was undergoing a military exercise. . david: but at the same time, it can be a can the went to the -- it can't be a coincidence that the british navy decided to run within two miles of the crimean coast. tom: david westin talking over us. what is that about?

[laughter] look for "balance of power" with ambassador haas today. a little bit of a lift to equities. jonathan: the vessel conducting an innocent passage and crimean waters, i think that is the important line here. they are referring to these waters as ukrainian waters off of crimea. of course, the russians believe that to be their own. tom: we've got to get more information. we are reporting this, and seriously, you make jokes about it, but this is serious. stop, jon. jonathan: to be clear, you make jokes about it. i don't. tom: i am just trying to get us through the hour. jonathan: on the s&p 500, 4240, advancing 0.1%. you and i haven't discussed it yet, we are catching up with the new sec chair in about 35 minutes. tom: we have been remiss with the activities, the importance of this election and the black sea. i am going to do our own horn, this is the interview -- going to toot our own horn, this is

the interview of the day. i've known gary for years. let's go, what are you going to affect as change? jonathan: that's where you want to start? tom: i want to know what he is going to do because there's a primal scream from certain arts of the constituency. let's go do something. jonathan: lisa has a lack of focus going into this interview. [laughter] lisa: a team meeting on air come alive. literally this is it. tom: for those of you on radio and tv, literally i had jackets made years ago, and on the back, i got this idea from david westin, "we do not plan," because peter jennings never planned. we don't land the show. we have no idea what we are doing. david: by the way, peter jennings would never call it a show. it is a program. it's news. [laughter] jonathan: this is a serious program. tom: we do not plan.

remember that. jonathan: coming up, james sweeney, the credit suisse chief economist, joining us at 8:30 eastern time. then we will catch up with the acc chair -- the sec chair a little later this morning. will plan that during the commercial break, just before the program. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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jonathan: from new york city, live on tv and radio for our audience worldwide, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up .1% on the s&p 500. stronger euro. euro-dollar 1.1953. we advance .1%. 1.47 on 10. 1.45 below of the week so far. pushing 1.51. crude gets your attention. up more than 1%. brent a tiny move. tom: the data is interesting. i will call the lift from what i

perceive. i want to sell this forward. stay with us through the 9:00 hour. i will be invading jonathan ferro's our for an important conversation with gary gensler. now important conversation with james sweeney of credit suisse. nobody, and he took serious heat for this, was able to say would you stop worrying about deflation in europe? he let on that debate and he was right. james sweeney joins us from credit suisse. i love your idea, you do the phantom limb pain. they say they, for lemon i can still feel the toes. we can feel the -- they say i caught off the limb and i can still feel the toes. we can still feel the toes. what have we misjudged, what have we done wrong? james: temporary is a strawman

argument against the idea inflation will be really high because all the money has been printed. tom: is very interesting to see this word transitory into the lexicon. as you lead on analysis of the fear of deflation, what we have wrong about the fear of the impending inflation? jonathan: i think we might've lost james sweeney. lisa: we do not plan that. jonathan: the sorry and the abrupt pause might have given that away. he did not step on himself. [laughter] tom: james sweeney has been big on this. this goes back to robert samuelson's magisterial book of the inflation of the 1960's. there is a lot of history, and maybe it is a history we have forgotten, we have not forgotten the fear of our real inflation

or the idea of a pursuit of financial information. we are filling you to the grocery store. jonathan: we will try to establish that connection with james sweeney. what is changed in the last week is all the fed has done is shift the balance of risk around their outlook and emphasize something different. if you start with the news conference of the federal reserve in chairman powell, he did not mention the word transitory wants. he ate knowledged some of this price pressure -- he acknowledged some of this price pressure. that is what has changed. the emphasis. the balance of risk. tom: and dr. sweeney's research note, this economy is not the same as the inflation fears of decades ago. i will go with amazon prime day, the technological overlay.

let's dovetail it into the mayoral race. how about all of the empty buildings around manhattan and across the nation? jonathan: see you in september. that is when the additional unemployment insurance expires. that is when people start to go back to school. the kids returned to school. we start to get a better gauge around the participation rate. what is true today was true a month ago. anyone with confidence and conviction about the outlook is a total charlatan. it is so uncertain. lisa: is uncertain. the reaction in markets to the fed meeting is really telling. the flattening of the yield curve and lower inflation expectations over the longer term. the market does not see runaway inflation. a hawkish fed means slower growth going forward and that is a huge takeaway. jonathan: is a cheap guide for any guest that appears on bloomberg radio. when tom starts to interrupt, keep talking. james sweeney is back with us.

good to have you with us. we are continue the conversation about the amount of uncertainty we have come the amount of clarity as we make our way through the reopening. when will we get that? is it the end of summer? what is the date in your diary? james: i think late summer we start to get better information on the wage picture and we can talk more informed about services inflation, given that wage picture. the problem right now is with this reopening, with the checks sent, with the seasonal effects in the composition effects, you cannot really tell. i will tell you what was helpful in this fed meeting is exactly dropping that kind of debate about temporary, which was lame all along. that word was aimed at a strawman argument of very high inflation down the load, where professionals care about the

path of inflation within this and whether inflation could be higher and more volatile once we are through this pandemic event. i think the incoming information suggests that is very possible. the path is interesting, and higher inflation and higher wages is possible. i feel like the fed is having that debate. they are acknowledging those risks. please stop talking about temporary. of course the pandemic was temporary we had special factors throwing inflation around. michael: where -- tom: where is the emotional number? pros are framing free percent inflation, 4%, where is the emotional number where the nation goes to a collective sweat? james: i think for broad household inflation expectation, that is actually not been inflation number, it is a spending number. it is when you see house prices

and car prices start to rip, when people are buying things because they think prices are higher in the future, but actually the survey suggests people are saying it is a bad time to buy the house or the car because prices are higher right now. i do not think we will get there. i think we will have higher inflation, more volatile inflation, i think we will come down from the temporary base effect peak, and the question is how much wage growth, how much services inflation, and are we going to be running at 2.3 sustainably for a few years? if we are there that is 50 basis points higher than the average of the last 25 years and it is a big deal. to a lot of the strawman arguments about money supply causing runaway and asian, seems boric -- runaway inflation, seems boring. that matters and that is what we are focused on. lisa: you talk about used-car prices, about home prices.

has there ever been a president for the diversion experience of people on the ground buying stuff and official measures of inflation? james: i don't think so. the reason is those inflation indices are two thirds services and one thirds good and services spending is remarkably steady even in recessions. we had two contractions in services consumption in a 60 or 70 years before this event. you had significant volatility. you have a lot of relative prices that have to adjust. people in everyday are more focused on goods prices and services. the price complex is jumbled up by the specifics of this pandemic and people should not lose sight of that. lisa: the fed has had a pretty aggressive role in the bond market with their bond purchases , which has raised questions about the accuracy, the effectiveness looking at breakeven rates for market participation of longer-term

inflation. do you think there's been so much noise in fed buying around those instruments to render them less useful as a gauge of market expectations for longer-term inflation? james: i would not blame fed purchases. they were never a good gauge. i never call breakevens inflation expectations. they are something different. jonathan: james sweeney, good to catch up is always and our apologies for the disruption to the conversation. james sweeney, credit suisse chief economist. coming up will be catching up with the sec chair gary gensler. we will do that live on tv and radio starting in about 20 minutes. looking forward to the chat. tom: gary gensler, even people who may be political within the left or right are removed from his theories, they have an immense respect for his

intellect. these guys come in all different flavors and i say this with great respect for arthur 11 of the bloomberg board, appearing with us on radio. arthur levitt has style. the individual investor. we do not know what gary gensler style is. jonathan: the individual investor has stayed a lot since arthur levitt's day. tom: he is up in connecticut with a laptop trading gamestop. jonathan: he is not. a lot of people are. lisa: the question is the democracy of the market. is this a good thing or a bad thing? how they deal with the meme stock phenomenon if people are not crying about it? who is losing on the others. jonathan: the first line of the mission of the sec chair, to meet our mission of protecting investors. that is the first question. how do you protect investors that do not want to be

protected? tom: of course it is your show, you will lead this off, but i will step on him. there is a huge urgency of global wall street saying do something. it is like roosevelt and the commonwealth speech in the depression. would you please do something now. jonathan: what does the do something look like? tom: he will tell us. jonathan: that is the promo for this conversation. i will open it. tom will step on me. all of that live at 9:00 eastern. in the qatar economic forum, stephanie flanders is with the ubs chairman and the governor of qatar's central bank. you can watch that live on the bloomberg. catch you up on the opening bell . equity futures up almost .1% on the s&p. nasdaq futures up 14.

yields advancing. tom: do sterling. jonathan: brexit boy? tom: do sterling. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz on the jonathan ferro on tv and radio. this is bloomberg. ritika: senate republicans blocked democrats expansive overhaul of u.s. election laws from advancing to the chamber floor. it shows the limited power democratic lawmakers have in an evenly split senate. the bill failed to advance on a 50-50 partyline vote short of the 60 needed to overcome a filibuster. in a sign of possibly easing tensions, top chinese and american diplomats made meet at a group of 20 meeting in italy according to the financial times. the times talks about a meeting between the chinese foreign

minister and u.s. secretary of state antony blinken as well as a possible phone call between president biden and xi jinping. on the fifth anniversary of the brexit vote no deal has been reached in the so-called suffolk laws but officials are sounding optimistic they will avert a trade law. -- sale of british sausages in northern ireland. morgan stanley has told employees they will need to be vaccinated against covid-19 to enter its new york offices. james gorman says about 90% of return staff have already had their shots. the firm says the goal is to create a normal office environment. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is very hard to say what the timing of that will be. when will these bottlenecks

disappear? when will there be enough microchips. we saw what happened in the lumber business. prices have gone way down but they are still high. when will the used-car markets get back at equilibrium? tom: the chairman of the federal reserve system, a tour de force of a press conference except for his answers to michael mckee. lisa abramowicz and tom keene getting you through the morning. gary gensler coming up. i look at the chairman's tiptoe on inflation. as james sweeney said, we are all dealing with our collective fears of the past. lisa: you said they are making it up. they are making it up because we are all making it up because no one has a sense of how different this time is. are we going to enter a new regime based on modern monetary theory where we are having money printing, fiscal spending, in addition to easy money policies. if this does not lead to higher

inflation, what are the implications of that? tom: dear important point, which is literally a double negative, if we do not get higher inflation, what does it mean? i go back to a concept of an hour ago. there is an ambiguity. if we undershooting the bloom of inflation, it can cut both ways. people are saying it is better for equities. that is not certain. lisa: i will say james sweeney, there was an important point. he said there has probably never been the same disparity between people's experience where they go to a grocery store and at the used-car lot and how high the prices versus the official metrics of inflation. we have not seen those pickup nearly as much. he was talking about the services aspect. what happens later in the year? especially as we see restaurant prices, nine dollar coffee, how

much does that way in to the inflation pressure? tom: dow futures up 57. a panel on the investment side of the business. janet johnson of franklin templeton, manny roman of pimco, and david rubenstein who is a friend of the show. let's listen with our erik schatzker. erik: together they oversee approximately $4 trillion in assets. i'll be asking at least one polling question over the course of the next half-hour, so pay attention and respond when you hear me introduce a poll. i do not see any reason we should not begin with our questioning right now. panelist, the covid-19 recovery trade has been nothing short of breathtaking. if you are bullish on reopening and positioned for reflation, it has been extremely profitable.

manny, you speak for two point $2 trillion at pimco -- you speak for $2.2 trillion at pimco. does the reflation trade have room to run, has it played out, or why? manny: you have some sectors that have been incredibly good to invest. in march 2020 you had real opportunity in high-yield and private credit come and for all of us i think it has been very good. there were special situations to invest in and people who put capital to work have been very happy. if you look at the high-yield index, a lot of it has played out. you may have another bite at the apple if there is some taper tantrum down the road. there are sectors i think will be incredibly exciting.

real estate being one of them. real estate is one of the sectors which has not fully recovered. there is a lot of questions and uncertainty about the role of offices. who will come back to work, how will it work? the sector should provide for investors to be a real opportunity. erik: a quick follow-up. given what you have just told me and told the audience, what is pimco doing? how do you position to take advantage of the opportunities, even if there are not so many? manny: in a mutual fund, and i have to be careful in distinguishing a mutual fund from the private side of a business, which has a lot of structure. on the mutual fund side we are taking some profit and i think we want to be flexible enough to capture opportunity.

time to buy incredible assets in march and april 2020. they have rallied quite a bit. i think you have to be disciplined and make sure you have dry powder to be able to deploy it. i do not need to tell you as the last panel pointed out, there is a lot of uncertainty about what is going to happen with inflation. we have a view. we may or may not be right. there is plenty of opportunity in emerging-market. all of these questions leads you to take profit on some of the position you talk in march 2020 and make sure you can employ your portfolio. erik: janet, you oversee and stored in every -- you oversee an extraordinary range of strategy. are your strategist telling you what we just heard from manny? it is time to take profit, it is time to wait for the next taper

tantrum before deciding to address -- to have vast -- to invest more aggressively. janet: unlike manny with a 1.5 trillion dollars i ever see a franklin templeton, we have 14 different investment teams that have great debates about inflation. we spanned the entire spectrum. i do not speak for them. they are completely independent. i would say i think the real rate trade, you will see this in waves as the vaccines rollout. obviously markets like the u.s. and europe are further ahead, probably 75%. i think the u.s. is projected at five months and the eu even sooner. their other markets that are much longer. 12 months, india 19 months,

indonesia 23 months. i think we will see the stimulus in waves and carry through. i think we are bullish on things like commodity currencies in areas where you are protected if there is inflation. cyclicals we think there is still run. 14 different independent teams who have their own view. each one independently comes up with their conclusion. lisa: that was jenny johnson, chief executive officer of franklin templeton speaking with erik schatzker and pimco ceo manny roman and carlyle group cofounder david rubenstein. you can check out the qatar economic forum on live . some fantastic interviews. we are looking at equities with a slight lift.

no trauma. yield slightly higher. the vix slightly higher. coming up, former white house economic chair jason furman at 12:00 p.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. 30 minutes away from the opening bell with equity features positive.

we advance more than .1%. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, 30 minutes away from the opening. price action pretty muted on the s&p 500 futures. 4241. up a little more than .1%. yields higher by a single basis point. in foreign-exchange, euro-dollar 1.1954. we advance point 12%. for -- we advance 0.12%. we begin with the big issue. law markers --