>> i think we've seen the best of u.s. growth. >> we cannot maintain 6% or 7% of gdp growth rate. >> this is going to be a tantrum. >> at what point does powell lift his foot off the accelerator in terms of pumping money into the system and how will the market react? >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: another day, another record. good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. 4280 on the s&p 500. record high after record high. far more nuanced than the daily headlines might suggest. tom: chris verrone will be with us in a moment. he is the chart guy on trend. the bank announces yesterday, it is a huge deal. jonathan: morgan stanley dublin

the dividend. we have to talk about united airline ordering 200 boeing, 70 airbus, it a record purchase. tom: good morning to dr. mohamed el-erian who religiously flies united. it is what we will see in the earnings season. corporations adjust and are saying life goes on. united saying we are going upscale, we will get the business-class flyer like lisa abramowicz. jonathan: here is the quote. "business travel will come back 100% in everything we see every week is making us more certain." that is the united airline ceo. lisa: let's put this on the record. if i'm flying business and tom keene has his own personal jet that comes to his door, going forward -- going forward there is going to be a key question how much you get a competitive advantage if you do upgrades and attract customers with less allegiance following this

hiatus? the fact we are seeing the delta variant increase, slow down international travel putting a kink and some of the travel plans. tom: american airlines down thomas 10%, united airlines damper -- -- american airlines down 10%, united airlines down 10%. you see it in europe with travel and leisure. lisa: you see it in the numbers. l.a. reinstated a recommended use of masks indoors. we are going backwards in certain places. jonathan: you think we are going backwards or not going forwards? tom: i think everyone ought to read camus, 1946. this is a pandemic.

-- we are getting there, but it is ebb and flow and it is not smooth. jonathan: as our audience tries to translate everything you just said i will turn to a market check. unchanged to start tuesday morning. on the bond market a break of 1.48. 1.4789. tom: i want to show three indices we never talk about. we show the dow, we show the spx. 12 months trailing. these are excesses so many people have missed. the idea what we see with the philadelphia oil index, the russell 2000 come at the kbw bank index up 72%, 12 months trailing. i think it is able market. jonathan: patients. -- patience. we will deal with that.

72.73 on wti. euro-dollar 1.1930. lisa: you think i will let that go? send some people might have missed out if they were in triple leveraged. some people might not have gotten these massive rallies. today if you get the entry point in the housing market, will be getting the u.s. april house price index data. the expectation is new record highs on house prices. the question is the deceleration and the pace of purchases. we will not get that, but getting a sense of how much momentum is behind these price increases will be interesting. 10:00 we get the u.s. june consumer confidence reading. the more interesting aspect is under the headlines. taking a look at the confidence of being able to get a job. confidence you will see the wages increase. confidence around the margins that is as of yet unproven. at 2:00 president biden will be in wisconsin talking about infrastructure.

it will be interesting to see whether he parses out the concept of reconciliation act and how this plans to develop in tandem with a bipartisan bill. a lot of pushback, a lot of confusion. our to know how to trade. markets have largely struck it off. jonathan: will catch up with amory this hour. -- we will catch up with annmarie hordern this hour. let's bring in chris verrone. top line in your research, it is a trend, not momentum. what you mean by that? chris: the trend of the market is clearly up. whether you look at the s&p or the nasdaq. what i want to focus on is as we start to approach one of the weaker seasonal stretches of the year, july through mid october, when you look under the surface of the market there are fewer stocks -- we start this morning with only 45% of the s&p above

the 50 day moving average. that is something we need to be mindful of as we approach this weaker period. we have been calling the market frustrating, not fatal. i think that is atoned likely to continue as we move through summer. tom: link your technical analysis to how unloved this bull market is. the numbers are extraordinary. been lately or reemphasizes -- ben laidler emphasizes our first half we have not seen in nine years. is it everybody is on board or is it unloved? chris: it is somewhere in between. i want to be careful when we talk to people, there is clearly a sense of optimism out there given the strength of the markets, but i think more importantly you bring up some of those groups, banks up 70, small caps of 80 -- a three-month

pause, a six-month pause like what we saw in 2010 or like what we saw in 1983 or 1984, year and a half off of the 1982 low, that would not be out of step with what we see. lisa: how do you distinguish between a pause in a selloff? chris: credit. when credit does not deteriorate , it is probably just a pause or a correction and not something more serious. that is the hardest question in this business. how do you differentiate between a pause that refreshes and the start of something more sinister ? it has been our experience when something is more sinister brewing you see it in credit markets first. even in the groups that are correcting right now. parts of consumers are correcting, industrials, materials. it is not being accommodated with any major credit deterioration, which i think it is an important signal. jonathan: do you stick with the

banks? they have had a choppy month. chris: when you look at flows, the room has already been cleared. in the last several days we have had some of the biggest daily outflows of financials we have seen since the 2020 lows. if you look at that on a rolling three month basis, lows out of the financials are almost in the 97 percentile historically. we are starting to clear the room. rates have something to do with that. what we have found striking is for the last three months, where bond yields have gone 1.75 to 1.45, banks have outperformed utilities. not what you would expect an environment where rates have come in as much as they have. michael: -- tom: what does technology show you? facebook in the news and the others. what did they show technically? chris: they are clearly resurgent. the question is whether or not

this is a durable move. we cannot get out of our minds this memory of how nasdaq peaked in 2000. you have the initial drop down in march 2000 and then the riproaring move back to september and october of 2000 but ultimately rolled over again. i do not want to forget that experience. the one thing we have seen is a rally intact. new highs in all of these stocks. you're not necessarily getting relative highs. i want to be a little bit mindful this move is less dominant in relative terms today than it was a year ago. jonathan: chris verrone, love to catch up. strategas founder and head of global macro strategy. markets basically unchanged in the s&p 500. close to 4280. frustrating, not favorable. that is the market right now. tom: you are allowed to do that.

what i find amazing, and you can see the wei screen, is how nasdaq has caught up with dow. there is clear -- there's still room to move. you pointed out bank stocks have come off their high. they have room to move higher. jonathan: what is a difference between a pause and a reversal? the secret sauce is in credit. lisa: he was saying there are no alarm bells in credit. that is the biggest understatement i've heard in my life. junk bond yields adding a new low of below 3.8%. the idea this is comparable what you would've gotten u.s. investment grade corporate debt as a year or two years ago. the question i have is is this an accurate indication of a credit cycle? do credit cycles matter for credit? you ask this question yesterday, or has the federal reserve

change the equation? this is giving people confident. the nature of the rally might change. jonathan: we have done all of the serious stuff will stop doing to the countdown, five hours tournament away from the biggest game in the tournament because of the historic five early between england and germany? tom: will it be as exciting as the game last night? jonathan: that game was phenomenal. which one do you mean? tom: explained to our american audience and idiots like me, how is a team score 10 goals in two games? i believe i've never heard that? jonathan: the opposition collapsed and let too many goals in. instead of yesterday let's talk about today. germany and england. pick a side. tom: i have no clue. jonathan: pick a side. tom: i would go with france. lisa: john once germany.

jonathan: all i'm saying is no one's drinking champagne and france after last night. in the next hour, mona mahajan. from new york city, good morning. a beautiful new york. steamy yesterday, hot again today. tom: we are in fahrenheit, not celsius. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: it is a record purchase for united airlines. the carrier has agreed to by 200 boeing jets and 70 airbus ne-yo jets. the deal is valued at $15 billion. planes will get a revamped captains with seatback screens and larger overhead bins. it is assigned united plans to step up competition with delta and american.

it is a milestone for facebook. shares of the social network rose after an antitrust victory helped push its market value above $1 trillion. facebook is now the fastest company to reach that level. a judge granted its request -- president biden is defending his decision to order airstrikes against iran backed militias in iraq and syria. the president push back members of congress who question whether he should have consulted them first. there has been no public reaction from iran's president-elect. nancy pelosi has moved to create a select committee to investigate the attack on the capital. the panel would have subpoena power and no deadlines. senate republicans blocked the creation of independent commission. jp morgan reportedly is boosting pay for junior bankers according to the u.k. financial news. the bank is now offering

first-year analysts starting salaries of $100,000. the bankers on wall street have complained about longer hours. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there is bipartisan support for a significant infrastructure

package. there was during the obama administration. there was during the previous administration. it has been challenging to figure out exactly how we can pay for it in a way that is comforting to both sides. jonathan: it has been quiet. that was mitch mcconnell. from new york city, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. coming into tuesday sitting pretty at all-time highs on the s&p, down a single point to 4279. in the bond market, 1.4816. jp morgan sticking with the short. j barry still looking for 1.95 on the tenure. right now some 1.50. tom: the rate market has been quiet. i am waiting for to tell me something. it is not told me much. jonathan: what is it telling you

now? not much. what about the idea peak everything is behind us? tom: is a theory. where are you on that? jonathan: clearly a theory not given much weight. here is argument from jp morgan, valuations are rich, supply will remain heavy. inflation should increase. tom: ben laidler is looking for double-digit equity gain. jonathan: what a first-half. tom: the best in nine years. what a first-half are the biden administration -- what a first-half for the biden administration. annmarie hordern is in washington. what is the power of the left on a tuesday morning? annmarie: good morning. politico is talking about the fact that inside his own white house, people are very confused by president biden's move

towards the centrist. you have the left wing of the party upset with the moves the biden administration has made in terms of the bipartisan infrastructure deal, and leading towards the right and those senators to get that deal done on saturday, rescinding he would not make a veto effort. the left has some power. you even saw protests from progressive groups outside the white house. the struggle will be to make sure they get enough votes for the house, but also in the senate it is to make sure -- we heard from mitch mcconnell yesterday -- to make sure the republicans also support this deal. what mitch mcconnell is putting on the line and saying is we heard from the president, but that is rescinding on that veto will be a hollow gesture if nancy pelosi and chuck schumer also do not get on board with this deal. tom: is there any reporting that

the left is swayed by earmarks, by pork? a six lane highway from burlington to rutland? does that work anymore? annmarie: i think it will work when it comes to the human infrastructure part of the bill. that is what the progressive left want to see. they want to see expansion of funding for things like childcare, for medicare, they want to see the taxes on the richest go up. those are the kind of earmarks that would work for the progressive left. i do not think you will see it as much when it comes to the heart infrastructure. lisa: president biden is touring rural wisconsin and talking to different farmers, agricultural producers, trump country very much. what is his goal and what does it say about who the balance of power lies with right now? annmarie: i think it is a two particle. one is he wants to drum up

support for this infrastructure plan. a lot of the infrastructure plan is geared towards rural america. part of it is expanding broadband, but also expanding transportation to get crops quickly and more easily and efficiently out into the rest of the country. as you mentioned, this is trump land and wisconsin for 2022 could be a place democrats are eyeing. senator ron johnson has yet to decide if he was going to run again. he is a republican. if he decides to retire or do something else in his career, this could be a seat democrats want. for these rural farmers, prices have been good. he is going to dairyland. milk prices are up. this is good for these farmers. we talk about inflation every day on bloomberg television. inflation is good when you look at food prices. at the same time, farmers are

worried about a thing called the estate tax that could be an infrastructure plan. what that would mean is passing on their land to future generations would be more expensive. it is a tough line to walk and he wants to get the support of committees and wisconsin and other rural communities in the midwest. lisa: what does it say about the fact that president biden is petitioning traditionally republican areas in wisconsin at a time when you have a big proportion of his own party pulling away from him and increasingly skeptical? annmarie: it is a very good question. probably this trip was planned before we had this confusion in terms of the veto threat on thursday and then rescinding of that on saturday. this is going to be a trip i imagined he will have to set up more meetings. we have already seen reporting from the washington journal and the new york times, the fact the white house has been picking up

the phone and calling progressive leaders to make sure they understand the president is still on board with this two track system. the heart infrastructure deal but also through reconciliation a broader package. jonathan: important staff. who is your team later? annmarie: today? i will root for england, not just because i spent nearly eight years in london, but because of the team i want to win the whole thing. jonathan: who is the team? annmarie: italy. me and jonathan support the same team. jonathan: that is all i wanted to hear. for those who wish to follow the president later, he will leave the white house at about 10:00 eastern. remarks at 2:00 eastern time. tom: wisconsin is an important state. there is a lot of communities. we think of madison as the people's republic of madison and

everything else pretty conservative. as we saw in the election, it is the kind of state he has to "campaign in" 24/7. which bill gets pushed the hardest? lisa: is he lobbying his own constituents? is he lobbying the populist? tom: are two bills really in place? jonathan: very much so in terms they're trying to pass them in tandem. in that sense, yes. are there ready to go now? the answer is no. lisa: we have not seen the details or any specifics of the larger reconciliation bill, which raises the question about the timeline. jonathan: the president speaking later this afternoon. i understand we will take those comments on bloomberg tv and radio. equity futures 4278 on the s&p. down not even .1%. i need one of those dashboards

and that i will press a button as i'm speaking and you can save your voice for the rest of the program. yields 1.4782. anything to say? tom: four digits. i like it. the euro is weaker. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city, tuesday morning. here is the price action. 4279 on the s&p. unchanged after climbing to a record high yesterday. the best first half since how long? tom: nine years. jonathan: unreal. nasdaq futures -.1%. a nice boost of the back of facebook news. that is the story for the equity market. what's talk about the financials. the equity market up 14% year-to-date. the banks of 28% on the s&p 500, and we got that avalanche of news from each and every individual bank on wall street that passed the stress tests last week. goldman sachs boosting their payout by 60%, jp morgan goes to

a dollar. morgan stanley doubles the dividend. that is the bank story and the premarket more on that through the next couple of hours on tv and radio. here is the bond market. you need the bond market to come with the banks call. how many time of people said that? 1.4799. tom keene, how the bank pulls would like the jp morgan version of the world to materialize. jp morgan still looking for 1.95 on 10. tom: even breaking up to 1.70. i think it is a rich story. the bank stock story, the flows of money, the way they adapt their business. jonathan: we can get to 1.95 even with all of the news you would expect to take to 1.95 in the first quarter. where did it get us?

just south of 1.80. they talked about the reaction function at the fed. that was true at the start of the year. tom: of group the other way. jonathan: 1.95 on the one end, hsbc down 1%. right now in between. tom: a rich market and all of this colliding with the data. housing data today. i looked carefully at the housing data. it is not too thousand six but we are getting there quickly. jobs day on friday. this is a joy. we do not do enough on the sauce. we talked to -- she is experts on the soft commodities. kona hague. a terrific, a distinguished career in these trends. i want you to discuss the linkage of your world to brazil. why is brazil so important in

getting on board a soft commodity trend? kona: super important. brazil is the biggest exporter for coffee, for sugar, the exporter of cotton. you name it. it is massive. everything that goes on in brazil, whether it is currency or the weather will have a direct impact on sugar, coffee, cotton, corn, soybeans. these are massive. tom: my take on your world is you have to stay on a trend. what is the most identifiable trend in a soft commodities that gives comfort to be long or short? kona: it is very similar to what we are seeing in the general commodity space. reflation trade, the fact we have had a post commodity implied inflation expectations has led to a boom in commodities. whether we are in a super cycle or not is debatable, but we are seeing money flowing into

commodities and the soft commodities sector has definitely been the beneficiary to that. we have seen investment buying across coffee and sugar and it helps the forward curves are in backwardation. the market is slightly tight and that is helped by the fact that brazil has been very dry and the first half of the year and that has caused concerns for yields which has fueled concern. lisa: there is a question about the elasticity of some of the soft commodities. how quickly you can compensate for the increase in demand or the reduction in supply based on the droughts we are seeing, not only in brazil but also across the united states. what commodities have the least elasticity, are the least capable of being produced quickly to meet the demand? kona: things like soybean and corn, at least you have other countries like the usa and argentina that can compensate.

right now, we have seen some issues. very dry in parts of the u.s.. the weather is turning a little bit whether -- a little bit better. the rally in corn and soybeans has come off. what i think about the way the commodities work is when brazil is exporting, when they finish their export season that is when the u.s. starts exporting. you have a nice supply chain across the calendar year. with coffee and sugar, you are looking at the middle of the year. there is not the area to provide that kind of huge replacement. we are more concentrated in the softer. if i want to talk about the demand for elasticity -- coffee, for example, the pandemic meant cafes were closed across the world.

people had to drink coffee at home. now there is a hope that as lockdowns are lifted, people can go back to outdoor coffee consumption. that should provide a nice boost. jonathan: may be some people -- lisa: may be some people drink more coffee when they go out. other people like myself drink plenty at home. we are talking about peak reflation, whether we have reached peak everything and whether that is being reflected, some of the commodity prices easing off where they were. do you see that consistently around the commodities most sensitive to global growth? kona: the agricultural side i suppose is less sensitive to economic growth. if anything you would say emerging markets -- is more about as the country's move out of the covid, there demand for basic raw materials will be very strong. that is definitely happening.

we are seeing food inflation, and if -- when does the government start worrying about food rising. they might want to start importing to ensure we do not have domestic food inflation. are we at the peak? i would say we are in the middle. certainly for some commodities, harvests are coming up. that provide supply pressure. i think because interest rates are still so low in the rate hikes by the fed are still two years away, people need to put their money in. commodities still feel like a good bet. tom: switched oil. you followed that for years. do you see an identifiable trend in brent crude that watches out to $80 and then $85? kona: the fact oil has done so much better than even i thought a few months ago suggests we may

underestimate demand. as more countries come out of lockdown, i think that can spike higher. may be in the u.s. the demand will be slightly slower. we probably need aviation to take off for the next leg higher. at the same time we know opec is bringing supply on. that is the plan. if they go overboard, that i think you could start seeing a slowdown. tom: john emails in and says he will probably lose money on germany and england. what is your single best idea for people who lose this afternoon on the soccer game? kona: if you look at france, if that is the same trend, maybe germany will go. england has a good chance. jonathan: i love that. that is the best answer we have all day. tom: long champagne is what i

heard there. jonathan: that was terrible. tom: someone emailed in, i said yes. tang is a soft commodity so everybody understands. tom: we have to explain this. lisa: carry-on. [laughter] tom: the legacy of this is so important. it is a romance thing. the legacy in london with the soft commodities. in the modern-day we do not talk about like we used to. jonathan: you go back to the coffeehouses centuries ago. tom: when i was there. when i started out soft commodities was a big deal. you got on board a trend. coco in this. mary poppins. railways to india. we do not do it like we used to. jonathan: crude this morning close to $75. we broke that level in the last week. lisa: the interesting thing is

you have seen the oil price maintain its gains much more than other commodities that have come off. i wonder what this says, if it is more of the reflation trade and people putting a pause on it but not necessarily rolling over , whereas the other commodities are less clear in terms of what this means about global growth. jonathan: a baseball update? tom: dodgers giants, two great teams. dodgers defeated the giants. jonathan: you've not talked about the red sox much recently. tom: i am watching. they are in the game but not really. lisa: he does not talk about them. that is why he talks about the padres. jonathan: dodgers and giants -- tom: dodgers and giants, every team is stunning. i would say the red sox are more like england, the way you describe england. are they going to be fired up? what is the emotion? jonathan: you can trace the

roots of this back to the first world war and the truth. do you ever hear the story of the christmas truce? when the germans played the english. so the story goes. no idea how accurate is. that is what goes back to. a traditional rivalry between two megan nations. tom: lisa, you never thought there would be a conversation like this. lisa: i have a serious conversation. do you think anyone on the trading floor is trading or they will just be watching the game? jonathan: fortunately kicks off at 12:00, 5:00 u.k. time, 6:00 in germany. i imagine you leave maybe an hour, two hours before the close of the market to try to get a decent chair at the pub to watch the game. maybe leave at lunchtime and have a long lunch that merges into 4:00, 5:00 p.m.. lisa: liquid lunch.

jonathan: that is probably what london looks like later. coming up, we talk about the pandemic with dr. amesh adalja of johns hopkins. pushing 4300 on the s&p 500. the bond market, 1.4799. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. on capitol hill, the past -- the house passed its own version of legislation aimed at boosting research and develop in response to china. the two chambers will have to negotiate differences. in florida, state legislature once condo legislation -- once condo rules and regulations reviewed following the deadly collapse. a state legislator said lawmakers should consider expanding inspection

requirements. the condo collapse near miami has raised questions about maintenance. at least 11 people have been confirmed dead. 150 are still missing. morgan stanley is reading -- is leading u.s. banks in raising payouts to investors. dividends payout by the nation's six largest lenders will rise on average by almost half. that is with citigroup abstaining. morgan stanley doubled its dividend and announced $12 billion in buybacks. bloomberg has learned the justice department has stepped up scrutiny of googles digital practices in recent months. the biden administration is pursuing an antitrust probe that started under former president trump. the justice department sued google last year saying it is abusing its dominance in internet search. in the u.k. prices grew at their fastest annual pace in 17 years, adding to a growing wealth gap that has policymakers worried. according to a nationwide

business society, prices rose 17.4% from a year ago, the average price is now $353,000. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> given how quickly it is spreading, it should be a

concern because it can destabilize even countries that have done a pretty good job vaccinating. for that reason i think all of these warnings are reasonable. it is an extra push to get people vaccinated and help people and others understand the importance of vaccinations. jonathan: that was johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health feisty. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, all-time highs on monday. equity futures unchanged on the s&p. let's call it 4280. the euro weaker. euro-dollar holding onto 1.19. a weaker euro, stronger dollar. in the bond market, settling down. south of 1.50. tom: 1.4782. economic data really critical. today housing. we will look at that. a lot of important economic data

at the end of the second quarter of 2021. right now amesh adalja, johns hopkins center for health security. he does not lead the papers. he reads things like the lancet. adult medical journals that inform on where we are. i noticed in lancet a wonderful 12 paragraph summary of scotland and the delta variant we have. i cannot translate it like you can, but what i see is a stunning growth of worry about this variant. what are you reading about delta variant in the professional journals? dr. adalja: what we know for sure is it is the most contagious version of this virus we have seen. it is more contagious than the original virus. it is more contagious than the alpha variant, so that means just by simple darwinian laws, wherever the delta variant is it will become the dominant strain. that is a biological fact.

it will spread in those populations that do not have protection, meaning people who are unvaccinated. that is where the main danger arises. in places where there's a large proportion of unvaccinated individuals, you will see delta being a disruptive force. jonathan: -- tom: the summary out of scotland is the young and the affluent are more affected by the delta variant. is it more vera lent? -- is it more virulent? is there a difference in strain? dr. adalja: it is hard to tease that apart. he remembered they said that about the alpha variant, which was never borne out. i do not know if we can say that for sure. it is something important to study. people have said there is a different spectrum of symptoms. there is a loss of taste and smell. this is something that will take

a long time. all we can say for sure is that is more contagious and that is why it is important. lisa: how big of a concern is this for those were vaccinated? dr. adalja: if you are fully vaccinated there is not any evidence the delta variant provides any problem for you. we see with the mrna vaccines that two doses is highly effective at preventing symptomatic disease. it is probably also the case with the johnson & johnson vaccine, especially when you're talking about what matters. a lot of the talk about the delta variant, the fact what we are trying to do in the pandemic is not to get to covid zero and prevent mild illness, it is to prevent serious illness, hospitalization, and death, and our vaccines do that very well. that is the message. get vaccinated. lisa: that is the message from you. we hear different messages from different health professionals and see messaging when it comes to israel's policy and los

angeles saying everyone now needs to wear a mask. not necessarily a mandate but highly recommended. how much daylight is there between your view and health officials putting into place policies that are not recognizing we have crossed that line into treating covid like any other virus? dr. adalja: there is definitely a disparity in what i am saying and other people are saying. i am someone who has thought of covid-19 as an issue of trying to preserve hospital capacity, trying to tame the virus to make it unable to cause a public health emergency, not to drive it to some elimination point which i do not think is possible. what we are trying to do is make it like another respiratory virus we deal with year in and year out that causes some hospitalizations, some death, but something we are able to handle much better. that is where we have to go is moving away from the covid zero idea or focusing so much on cases, but only looking at hospitalizations and deaths. that is what we try to do from this beginning of this pandemic.

it is hard for people to transition to that. i think there a lot of people that implicitly have a covid zero idea, which is not something that is sustainable. lisa: others have come on this program and say it goes beyond getting the incidents down to zero. it means preventing the long-haulers, people with symptoms of covid for a long time that are expensive for the health care system. it goes to the idea you can open up the borders more freely earlier. what you say to people who present those arguments? dr. adalja: those are all worthy goals. to get cases as low as possible is a worthy goal. is that what should be tied to public health measures? i do not necessarily think you should be needing government force when your hospital capacity is not going to be compromised. right now we have the vaccine widely available, we are trying to get more people vaccinated. at the point where people are undermining the vaccine saying you have to wear a mask if you

are fully vaccinated, that does not make sense to me. there are a lot of differences in the rest. to me it is a systemic risk of covid-19 collapsing the health care system in terms of icu capacity. everything else is much more manageable, especially with the vaccine. we have to think about what this means globally for respiratory viruses. how do you get them to a manageable level? the mysteries of long covid are something that is going to be unlocked. those are important research questions to answer. i do not necessarily think that is what should guide every public-health decision-making process, that that is at the same level as a hospital prices or not having enough masks or not having enough ventilators. that is what we have been trying to do and i think people forgot that is what flatten the curve was about. there was a black line that was hospital capacity. jonathan: and then the goalpost got moved quickly by a few people. dr. amesh adalja, johns hopkins

senior scholar. the prospect for individuals has changed markedly because of the vaccine. 12 months ago was about protecting you and others. you want to protect others if they have chosen not to protect themselves? lisa: the one caveat is if children are below the age where they can get vaccinated. there is that. there is also other nations do not have that luxury. how much, especially if there is traveling, how much for those people be put at risk? i hear your point and the idea of personal decision. if people are not going to get vaccinated, at some point you make that call. jonathan: i mentioned to travel a couple of times. it makes the line to scott kirby , ceo united airlines all the more interesting. business travel will come back 100% in everything we see is making us more certain. tom: the complete opposite of what we have heard from other people. i am watching american most. they seem to be struggling the most.

jonathan: and that stock struggled. coming up, mona mahajan. s&p 500 futures unchanged at 4280. from new york city, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> this economy is running very >> we cannot maintain the 6%, 7% gdp growth rate in the united states. >> at what point does powell lift his foot off the accelerator on financial dynamics in terms of pumping money into the system, and how will the market react? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: all-time highs coming into tuesday. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tuesday morning with s&p 500 futures at 4282. with united airli