>> this economy is running very >> we cannot maintain the 6%, 7% gdp growth rate in the united states. >> at what point does powell lift his foot off the accelerator on financial dynamics in terms of pumping money into the system, and how will the market react? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: all-time highs coming into tuesday. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tuesday morning with s&p 500 futures at 4282. with united airlines, huge bet

on the future, agreeing to buy 70 airbus planes. that is a big at on a better future. tom: the response of the market is to grind higher. just like yesterday, we are grinding higher. dow futures just went positive. nasdaq 100 is going to go positive before lisa tells us what is going on in the real world. lisa: part of it is the airline story of can we get back to normal. those plans are getting delayed. i think you asked a really good question earlier on the show. has it been delayed, or has it and brought backward in terms -- or has it been brought backwards in terms of the delta variant? we are seeing restrictions were imposed. i wonder longer-term how much of a speedbump this is in the recovery.

look at the airlines. there are some cracks in this cyclical story. jonathan: you sound like -- tom: you sound like lisa. we should all get together. there's an ebb and a flow to the market as well. jonathan: doubled the dividend. do you think that was the avalanche a lot of people expected? not for goldman, not for jp. tom: what is really important is what will be the sustained dividend. not double-digit. these guys aren't apple. they aren't google. but can they give us high single digit dividend growth going forward? jonathan: the other bet is in

the bond market, that yields will come with us, the equity market, bond market. they need the bond yields to put his bait -- to participate in a way they haven't. lisa: what are you going to pay us next year? what are you going to pay us the year after that? bank stocks, if you take a look at the dividends in the buybacks , are probably yielding 8%, 9%. however, it was only 4.1% last year. a lot of this is compensating for what was not paid out in 2020. jonathan: let's talk about that for a moment. yields up almost a basis point. the euro really struggling here, holding on to $1.19. rigging down again a little bit, down 0.2%. lisa: -- breaking down a little

bit, down 0.2%. lisa: today we will get a sense of how much of a pause there might be in the rapid price increases of u.s. homes. we are going to be getting the house price index from s&p corelogic. there's a question going forward about how much momentum could possibly be, especially at a time when the federal reserve is thinking about perhaps reducing some of their purchases. then we get u.s. consumer confidence. under the hood, how confident are people that they can get jobs? how confident are people that they can get price increases from their wages? this is probably one of the best leading indicators at a time of such messy news and data points. at 2:00 p.m., president biden will be in the rural areas of wisconsin talking about infrastructure, and i am curious to see who he is speaking to at a time of so much dissonance not

only between republican then democrats -- republicans and democrats, but within the democratic party. i think that will be a really interesting thing to see. is he selling a bigger infrastructure plan to try to get republican plans on board, or pitching the plan to garner enough support to overwhelm the democratic fringes? jonathan: he's talked about uniting the country, less about uniting congress. tom: that's where it is. i thought anne-marie horton -- i thought annmarie hordern captured the color down there. it is obviously a fractured, credit already. do we know what this is going to look like? i don't think so. jonathan: it's going to be big, the other bill. it could be, what, $6 trillion? lisa: yes, bernie sanders

crafting that one. jonathan: joining us now is mona mahajan, allianz global investors senior investment strategist. the cyclical trade has seen some cracks. do you want to stick with it? mona: generally, obviously we've had a phenomenal run in the value trade. we have talked about in's november. -- we have talked about it since november. people were anticipating some of the recovery that we are now seeing in the economy. but as we are sitting here today with the 10 year again under 1.50%, when you think about the upside, downside on the yield profile, if you think yields have much more downside to go, then perhaps you step back from the value trade. but if you think yields may start to either stabilize or

grind higher given both technical and fundamental factors, then i is one more leg and the value trade to come. keep in mind as we move through this year, as the fed starts to taper eventually, as a reopening occurs in earnest, that will support the value trade. but as we head into 2022, we are looking at comps that might get harder for some of the value sectors and that get once again easier for some of the growth tech names again. we do think as the year progresses, there will be more and more interest in some of the text trade, but -- detect trade -- the tech trade, but for now we stick with value. tom: these are unfamiliar names. asml, sap, lindy and total. should we be buying the european big caps?

mona: we think europe is levered towards the value trade. a lot of their indices are long financials come along industrials. so classic value sectors in europe right now, combined with a european economy that is also catching up and the vaccine rollout, terms of economic recovery. that being said, when you look at some of the performance year-to-date, a lot of european indices are in line, if not outperforming the s&p 500. that being said, we think that as this global recovery is unfolding, investors need to think more global in their portfolios as well. earlier this year, there was a period of u.s. exceptionalism. u.s. came out strong in the march timeframe with vaccine rollout. economic recovery started in earnest in that time period. but now we are starting to see this unfold locally.

through the summer months, we do expect stability in not only the european economies, but some of those em economies that really were lagging. areas like india, brazil that are now starting to show signs of stability. if we resume a softening dollar trend, we think that over time, that supports some of the real laggards beyond just euro parts as well. lisa: you say you are watching the delta variant and how that is spreading. how much does that play into your thesis? how much are you watching that to determine when you should perhaps shift gears? mona: it does seem to be a race between vaccines and variants. here in the u.s. we have done a good job. the vaccine rollout perhaps won't hit the 70% target july 4 that president biden had outlined, but we are getting pretty close. in many states we are now at 70% or higher. we think that is a pretty good

situation to be in to offset some of the growth in the variants. aside from the variants, the other thing we are watching is the seasonality of covid itself. when you think about it, as september and october rolled around, that could be when we see a surge in cases once more. so we are looking at the summer months in line with last year's summer months, where we are seeing a plateau in cases, but keep in mind, these are tail risks in our view, not really a base case scenario. jonathan: always good to see you. thank you. lisa, let's explore that a little bit further. do you look for the data, the continued decoupling between cases, hospitalizations? do you look to things like policy, small recalibration of the effort that might choke off growth or slow down the

reopening process? or do you wait for everyone else in the market to see what they think? [laughter] do you wait to start to adjust before this narrative really starts to change? lisa: there is an economic effect when you do have restricted odyssey on the heels of more cases. that does have a direct economic effect. people saying perhaps it is a chance to buy. i don't know. the bond market is not seeing that message. jonathan: the euro stoxx 50 is up by almost 16% year-to-date so far. already outperforming the s&p 500. tom: i'm glad you bring that up. i think it is time to look and say what did we get wrong, and to be the answer is bond stasis. we thought we would get movement in yield. we got some movement, but 1.40% is still a really low yield as well. it is going to be really interesting to recalibrate here in one day. jonathan: the selloff stalled at

the end of the first quarter. what does the second half bring? 4279 on the s&p. feel comfortable in cash still? tom: i'm looking for an entry point. jonathan: good morning. on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it is a record purchase for united airlines. the carrier has agreed to buy seven boeing jets and airbus jets. those will get a revamped cabin with seatback screens and larger overhead bins. it is a sign that united wins to step up competition with its two big u.s. rivals, delta and american. president biden is defending his decision to order air against iran backed militias in iraq and

syria. there's been no public reaction from iran's president-elect e brain raisi -- president-elect ebrahim raisi. house speaker in tbilisi has moved forward to create a committee to investigate the january 6 -- speaker nancy pelosi has moved forward to create a committee to investigate the january 6 attack on the capitol. facebook is now the fastest company to reach -- a judge granted its request to dismiss complaints last year filed by state attorneys general. jp morgan reportedly is boosting pay for junior bankers, according to the u.k. financial news. the bank is now offering first your analysts starting salaries of 100,000 dollars. younger bankers on wall street have been complaining of longer hours due to the boom we have

seen in m&a. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> inflation could be enduring.

i think policymakers should act accordingly. on the other hand, many will argue it is transitory, and which case we will be ok. as an investor and a policymaker, i would have a cautious bias. jonathan: that was the former u.s. treasury secretary speaking at the aspen ideas festival. good morning. tom, i have to say, mr. rubin sounded a little bit like, delirium -- like mohamed el-erian. a more balanced view of what is to come. tom: the language that he reinvented at goldman sachs, he was a guy who changed how we spoke on wall street. he said on the other hand, we know that from economics. the word i associate with him his likelihood. he took probabilistic tendencies .

that's the likelihood right now with this market is going to do. jonathan: the perspective of the investor and the perspective of the policymaker right now are not the same. tom: no, not the same. it is fiscally absolutely original. dow futures are green, but spx slightly negative. jack fitzpatrick thus of bloomberg government. let's pause and look at the size of the debt and deficit in washington. does anyone down there in the heat understand the new mass of the debt and the deficit? jack: there definitely is a debate in washington over what could be considered new math. when i talk to democrats, they shy away from using a phrase like mmt, but you hear a little

bit of mmt-esque language from democrats who are sort of in the mainstream. if you ask john yarmuth, who is crafting the framework for these proposals of debt as a percentage of gdp, he doesn't necessarily think that is the metric to look at. they are concerned about the possibility of inflation, but whether we are at debt at 100% of gdp or going upward to 117% in a decade under bidens plan, that is not the scaring thing -- the scary thing for democrats that it used to be. tom: what is the likelihood of more debt in washington on our balance sheet? it is just a given, right? jack: the likelihood of more debt being added in washington is about 100%. the question is how much. when you talk about these big proposals that the democrats

want to use to follow-up on this infrastructure bill, will it $6 trillion or maybe slightly less? maybe the bigger question is how much will be paid for. we've heard talks from democrats this could may be halfway paid for resident fully paid for -- paid for rather than fully paid for. are we talking about a matter of hundreds of billions or maybe even trillions in the near future being added to the debt? lisa: how important are the labor reports, including the one we are getting on friday, for garnering support for more spending? jack: at this point i am not sure that has a direct effect on congressional support for more spending. we have got to the point where the president and lawmakers know what they want to spend money on . a lot of these proposals are not meant as a stimulus necessarily, not meant to inject a bunch of money into the economy.

ideally the president wants to offset the cost, but it is a bit more of a focus on redistribution, on addressing policy areas that they haven't addressed on climate change, on taxes, but it is not necessarily that there's a negative job report, we really need to act to spend more. it is more a matter of addressing policies that democrats haven't had a chance to address in a long time. lisa: this is important, especially at a time when central bankers around the world say the fiscal impulse still has work to do to help the recovery gain the speeds it needs to get us out of here. how many politicians on wall street are talking about that, or is that basically off the table, that this is about the role of government going forward? jack: that is one of the ideas underpinning the democratic approach and the biden administration approach, looking back to the recovery in 2009 or

so. democrats have talked a ton about how there wasn't enough of a fiscal push. they rein things in too early. there's a huge reluctance to try to rein things in further. they are very reluctant to go to some sort of super committee budget control where they would reduce spending in the long run significantly, but again, at this point they got their major stimulus early and the biden administration with the $1.9 trillion stimulus. that is sort of an issue that underpins these talk, but is not the main focus of these talks. it is more the policy issues. tom: never say never, but we had one house yesterday talk about 24 months of 6% real gdp growth. why are we talking stimulus given a truly boom and extended boom economy?

jack: that's what i am getting at, i don't think we are really talking stimulus. the issue with all of the spending and the fact that it may not be fully paid for is less a matter of lawmakers focusing on stimulus and more just the difficulty of agreeing to pay for it. they may cut some corners and spend what they want to spend and then only halfway pay for it , not because they are here talking about the need to inject a lot of money into the economy, but because they have a lot of priorities they want to address as very politically difficult to agree to raise taxes, but compared to the early stimulus talks, these negotiations are not really in the context of a stimulus. they are more just a matter of addressing the many things democrats have wanted to address , and they would like to pay for it, but it is a difficult and washington to actually agree to

pay for all of your priorities. jonathan: jack fitzpatrick, thank you. your 10 year yield, 1.48% on the u.s. 10 year yield, higher by about a basis point. we are sub 1.50 percent. that is not where people thought we would be. a lot of people thought we would make move to do percent. tom: you are right. look at dxy, the blended dollar currency index. that gets my attention. it is not a breakout, but it is a little bit of a oomph to the dollar. lisa: the key question i have is that congressman's have moved past the pandemic. they have moved past the recovery. yet we still have labor market restrictions. i wonder how fiscal spending will dovetail into that to get some sort of critical speed. that is the question to me. jonathan: payrolls on friday. the biggest call right now on the street, one million plus among from pantheon, ian

shepherdson, good friend of this program. 700,000 euros to. tom: how did britain -- 700,000 estimate. tom: how did britain lose to iceland? jonathan: really good team. nice fan base. [laughter]

♪ jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are down by 0.1% on the nasdaq 100. about confidence in the future, united airlines ordering 270 jets. scott kirby, the ceo, talking about a 100% return of this is travel -- of business travel. over the last 30 days, it has

not been pretty, down by almost 12% on american come on delta down by nine point 5% come ununited down a little more than 10%. the delta variant story i find absolutely fascinating -- by 9.5%, on united down a little more than 10%. the delta variant story i find absolute we fascinating -- i find absolutely fascinating. lisa asked the question a little bit earlier on. when do you start to worry about the delta variant talk? cases have picked up anteriorly in places like the u.k. and israel. the relationship between cases and deaths and hospitalizations is not as tight as it once was. that's good news. do you look for the policymaker that might start to tighten things up? that is what this policy has

been in the airlines. tom: what i am watching is the total correlation of this 2% oxidative. some nations don't have it, including beleaguered africa and other nations that are way behind. it got to get up to 45.2, 45.3%. jonathan: the u.k. has it, israel has it, and we are still having this conversation. lisa: at what point does this become a macro story? why is this so isolated if it is having an effect on activity around the world? jonathan: we are not there yet. let's get you some stocks on the move. here's romaine. romaine: let's stick with the travel theme. you had the airlines on the board. boeing also getting a slight it in the premarket, up about 0.6%. a lot of this has to do with those 270 jets ordered by united. 200 those are for boeing 737 max. remember, boeing shares sold off

the previous days because of concerns about a software issue with a different plane, the 777. the bid today not enough to overcome all of those losses, but you talk about the long-term story, and those orders do appear to be coming in at least for that 737 max. the other big story yesterday was facebook. two interesting complaints by the ftc and a coalition of states. those antitrust complaints thrown out, but not the cases themselves. that is an important legal sanction as it means the regulatory cloud still is above facebook for right now, and the states and the ftc can refile those if they so choose. the strategists we talked to said they will choose to do that. what that prices in the market yesterday was the crackdown on tech companies that is going to be a much harder slog. also in the transportation space, an interesting note by the folks at citigroup, upgrading some of the railroads.

csx up almost 3% on the day. i know you guys have been talking a lot about the banks. we did get a lot of those dividend buyback announcements here. jp morgan going up about 10% on its dividend. tank of america going up 70 and. the big surprise i think was morgan stanley and wells fargo. morgan stanley doubling its dividend for the quarter and announcing that buyback plan about $12 billion. also late yesterday after the bell, we got earnings out of jeffries. they pretty much beat on all of the main metrics that investment acting backlog right now at a record level. tom: thank you so much. really interesting to see with the banks are this afternoon as well. moments ago, ira jersey, who i love on overnight repose and all of the fancy short-term, just took his midcourse correction

2022 out to 3.6%. jonathan: if we get a steeper curve and a higher 10 year yield, the bank bulls get what they want to see. we haven't seen that since the end of the first quarter. tom: we talked to one analyst and go right to another analyst where we can link them together. ira jersey on yield, and now david george on the outcome for the equity market and the banks, his expertise at robert w baird. if we get an ira jersey 10 year yield, 2.2%, 2.3%, what does that do to bank equities? david: good morning. if we get that, i think it is fair to expect a 10% to 20% upside for faang stocks, if that is the outcome, an addition to the rate environment itself. that obviously reflects a much stronger macro backdrop as well,

so that undoubtedly would be positive. david: how do you calibrate oomph of this one off in share buyback and dividend increase with a sustained evident growth? what kind of model do you have for these big banks as they try to figure out the sustained dividend that they will give shareholders? david: over time, we are of the view that most of the big banks, and i say this is a positive, are going to be very utility like respect how they distribute capital. i would expect over the longer-term, the 3, 5, 7 year time horizon, you will see close to 100% capital return alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. to shareholders in the form of buyback and dividend. obviously, the buyback discussion can be variable depending on movement in the economy, stock price movements, etc.. but the punchline is kevin:

kevin: that there's going to be very significant capital return out of the financial services industry over the next several years. lisa: mike mayo of wells fargo came on the program and said that right now, the yieldsj on these financial stocks would probably equate to some thing like 8% or 9% for 2021. how much can people buy these shares forcibly pay outs versus the dynamism from a steeper yield curve, from greater consumer lending activity, things that perhaps we are not really seeing as much? david: i think part of the investment case is clearly capital return, but buying banks on that alone is probably somewhat of a frail thesis. i think in order to be very bullish from these prices, and to kinda give you some perspective, banks are out over 100% over the last 12 months, up over 25% on a year-to-date exist, so clearly there are significant expectations priced into them today, so i think challenge from here, the capital

return from my perspective is very positive, but it is not enough to make a very bullish call for financials from these levels. i think for the group to do well, you need higher rates, more loan growth, continued strength in the capital markets, and that kind of remains to be seen at this point. lisa: let's put the rates picture aside since that is anyone's guess. there's a question about loan growth. alison williams of bloomberg intelligence and i were talking, and she said the untold story was the bank executives say in consumer loan growth is sluggish. that jp morgan, citigroup is seeing disappointments in that area. how concerning is that to you? david: it is not concerning, but it is absolutely a factor. alison is right on as usual. basically, and simplest terms, the government stimulus has

crowded out loan growth. that is basically, from my perspective, what is happening here. the amount of stimulus has been so significant that it is really eliminating the need for many entities and consumers to really binge on borrowing. i think that will change, but over the short term it should be a significant surprise because it is very much in bank deposits. if you look at deposit growth for the banks, and has been well in excess of loan growth for the past several months. in order for us to see loan growth improve, we would probably need to see deposits come down, and that frankly hasn't happened yet. tom: will it happen with the announcement of capital deployment? if they are going to buy back shares, they by definition become smaller entities. you leverage out what they've got left out of their balance sheet, and with that, do they preclude growth? do they limit their growth? david: no they don't.

if loan growth does not manifest itself in a meaningful way, ironically, most of these companies will generate capital faster. because they are not growing their balance sheets because of that lack of loan demand. i don't think that any pickup in share buyback activity has any implications for loan growth. jonathan: david, love catching up with you. david george, robert w baird senior research analyst. it has crowded out loan growth, but it has also really supported debt issuance in a massive way on the corporate side, and sovereigns too, for that matter. lisa: and also where the proceeds are going, which is mergers and acquisitions. you're seeing the banking sector absolutely flying. the question is, how long can that sustain the bank earnings if there's not loan growth and if consumers somehow got financial discipline for a

longer-term? jonathan: it is going to take until the end of this year to sort any of this. the fiscal effort crowding that out. on the labor market, that mismatch between supply and demand again and again. tom: you sound so much like lisa. your channeling lisa today. jonathan: when we talk about the labor market, i think you've got to wait. you got more than 9 million job openings in the united states at the moment. i'm not going to make the argument that it is unemployment insurance. republican governors have done that. we will find out when it all expires and we get the back-to-school effort, too. tom: i'm going to look at gdp growth and what the earnings season brings. frankly, i am enthused when i see something like united announcement this morning. tom: tom -- lisa: tom keeps thinking am so gloomy. i am not the one in triple leveraged all-cash. jonathan: that is true.

tom: i rebalance every friday. lisa: into more cash? [laughter] jonathan: coming up, deutsche bank's chief u.s. economist. 4278 on the s&p. tom: watch another episode of "love island." jonathan: have you watched that? i missed it. you are following it more than i am. tom: i am. jake and liberty. you make the call. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. on capitol hill, the house passed its own version of legislation boosting research and develop it and development in response to china -- research and development in response to china. the father and son who helped carlos ghosn escape trial in japan has apologized.

they told a japanese court that they made a mistake that they deeply regret. the two could get a three year prison term. they were extradited from the u.s. earlier this year. morgan stanley is leading the big u.s. banks in raising payouts to investors, according to statements. dividend payout will rise by almost half. the bank had cash piles that easily met the fed's cash requirement. bloomberg has learned the justice department has stepped up scrutiny of google's digital ad practices in recent months. that shows the biden adminstration is pursuing an antitrust probe that started under former president trump. justice department said google was abusing its internet search. u.s. house prices grew, adding to a growing wealth gap that has

policymakers worried, according to nationwide building society. the average price is now $353,000. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we really feel it is

important to get the flywheel going. we are choosing constrained capacity so that we can learn because we have to learn, and our objective is to bring our ships back fairly quickly, and i would expect the majority of our fleet to be back operating before the end of the year. jonathan: he's optimistic. that was the royal caribbean chairman and ceo. from new york city this morning, good morning. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. the price action this -- good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we pulled back now by almost 0.1% on the s&p 500. 1.49% on tens this morning. the euro just holding on $1.19, -0.2%. there's your break on euro-dollar. tom: it is really interesting to see. all of the economic data coming up in about 45 minutes or so.

david wilson joins us on the broader s&p 1700. dave: what we are talking about here is something called the s&p completion index. s&p has a really broad market age called total market index, so they take every stock out of that that is also in the s&p 500, and that is your completion index. roughly 34 shares in this gauge. we have really seen a resurgence in the completion index relative to the s&p 500 since mid, and we saw this index records. -- this index sets records. the ratio has been moving up lately, so it is a sign you've had some broader strength at a time when under -- when other indicators are pointing in a different direction.

you look at the s&p 500 percentage of stocks above the moving average, that is causing some concern. this indicator tells a different story. tom: david wilson, thanks so much. too short a visit this morning. right now, this is fun for me because it is all of the bloomberg world and so much of our listeners and viewers in global wall street, it is applied, and then there is the pure research of it. it has fallen by the wayside in the last decades. what we know at bloomberg from our leadership, pure research matters. enter bounced -- andrew bounds has put together a group called catalyst that simply looks back to the golden age of 1957, the year of ig why, back when pure

science matters. thank you for joining us today. these catalyst are about doing research and figuring and figuring things out -- and figuring things out. >> this is to address the biggest problems facing humanity. this catalyst program is intended to turbocharge that effort. we were inspired in some ways by the pandemic, which gave rise to this wave of innovation and creativity. the problem solvers that we got together include people at the founder of moderna, but also small entrepreneurs who have used the pandemic as a way to address some of these big problems, food security, access to finance, access to energy and

so on. tom: we are in awe of all of these people that created the vaccine with mrna and all of that. and this goes back to the more entrepreneurial people you have. do they have the support of governments, or do these catalysts feel alone? >> the analogy i think about is the analogy with world or two. you had this incredible global crisis that gave rise to a huge number of innovations directed by government. you had mass production of penicillin, microwave communication, radar, the manhattan project and the atomic bomb, but you also had coming out of this pandemic a host of innovations. it is not a coincidence that you had a technology like messenger rna, which had been languishing

for decades, when the pandemic struck, found its application, and within a matter of weeks, you had a vaccine which is helping to bring the pandemic to an end. lisa: today we have a new galvanizing feature, although perhaps not so great when it comes to collaboration, a question of u.s. and china, or the western world versus china, versus the east. how easy is it to get people to work together? how much of a common cause is there versus competitive spirit underpinning these advances? andrew: most missions into space are now multinational. it is not a coincidence that even as the pandemic has been raging around the world, we had no fewer than three missions to mars. two landed rovers, and another from the united arab emirates

orbited the red planet. that one is particularly interesting for us. one of our catalyst is the uae minister for advanced technology , and uae is looking to space to look at life beyond oil, putting together technologies, developing the human capital needed to drive the uae economy that is heavily oil dependent in a post fossil fuel world. a lot of people are looking at space as potentially an escape from all of the problems on earth. our catalysts are looking at space as an answer to problems here and now on mother earth. jonathan: andrew browne, looking forward to all of the work you on the team are going to produce through the next several months and through the next year. it goes back to a story we have discussed many a time over the last year or so.

if last year was a catalyst for all of this change, will we be surprised more by how much changes or how much things remain the same? that is going to be the story. tom: all in all, the catalysts are there. that creates that worry that is out there. i would look to corporations adapting to what we see right now, and that is this massive old market that so -- this massive bull market that so few are on board. jonathan: that is a bet that things will be what they used to be. lisa: trying to get a competitive advantage in a recent world, that is perhaps what we are seeing. jonathan: that is the call from the ceo of united airlines. isn't that the chief guide for any strategist, you make a call but you don't offer a time?

coming up, mike bell of j.p. morgan asset management, global market strategist out of london. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

[ "me and you" by barry louis polisar ] ♪ me and you just singing on the train ♪ ♪ me and you listening to the rain ♪ ♪ me and you we are the same ♪ ♪ me and you have all the fame we need ♪ ♪ indeed, you and me are we ♪ ♪ me and you singing in the park ♪ ♪ me and you, we're waiting for the dark ♪

>> this economy is running very hot, above long-term averages, and that should she went to these cyclicals. >> we cannot maintain this 6%, 7% gdp growth rate in the united states. >> this is going to be eight interim -- going to be a tantrum-less taper. >> how will the market react? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.