can get back to that pre-covid labor market. >> demand for basic raw materials is going to be very strong. >> as this global recovery is unfolding, investors need to think more globally in their portfolios as well. >> the fundamentals are going to keep getting better here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am jonathan ferro. equity futures down on the s&p . closing out june most likely with a fifth straight month of gains. tom: extraordinary second half, june looking well. the rally, my attention, even with the futures now negative. let's go right back to the vanilla spread. you've been talking with lisa about a flatter yield curve.

i am sorry, it is ever flatter. we are not due to 117 basis points but this is a huge signal of what's to come. this flatter curve is a huge surprise. jonathan: this last month, breakevens topped out in may. the yield curve is flatter, not steeper. when you look at the performance of this equity market, nasdaq 100 up over 6%. that is quite a divergence. tom: we enter fourth of july weekend with the real yield. look for that friday afternoon after the jobs report. 10 year real yield, -0.89%. it has not budged. away from the equity market enthusiasm, this fixed income space is something we can talk about this morning. jonathan: we have to play the what next. here's the quote. take some gettings, reduce risk -- gains, reduce risk and enjoy

a few weeks without stress. lisa: definitely less stress and take some time off. there is a question i heard. buckle up, buckle up. we are not seeing any potential volatility being implied into spreads when you look at the bank of america, merrill lynch mood index. what's going to be the catalyst? the federal reserve, the fed, has really doubled down on the transitory message. jonathan: let's talk about credit spreads. a couple weeks ago, had a mini stress test for this market. what did credit do? lisa: absolutely nothing. the bottom line is this, if companies can access funding, what's going to stop this? tom: can i mention something? i think it will be the theme for the second half. real wages are flat on their back. lisa abramowicz put a chart out on twitter. i followed up with another. inflation-adjusted wages are a

disaster. jonathan: we will go into the details in a moment. here's the price action this wednesday morning. equity futures down six on the s&p 500. a very small breach of 4300 on the s&p 500 in yesterday's session. 1.4561 on 10's. in foreign-exchange, the euro unchanged on the day. lisa: no matter what data we get, it seems like the pressure is lower these days for the 10 year yield. that is the story of the second quarter of the year. this today, this today, that's where we are at, happy wednesday. we get the adp employment change, not necessarily that predict if of the jobs report, but we are expecting less of a gain. 600,000 added jobs. in particular, leisure and hospitality. how much does this foretell

perhaps a weaker than expected jobs report on friday? not typically that predictive. 10:00 a.m., u.s.-made pending home sales. yesterday, we saw home prices rise the most in 30 years. this is creating affordability issues. inventory issues as well. there are not enough homes to buy, which is why people are expecting a slow in the pace of sales. the oecd's meeting to talk about that global minimum tax, at least 15% the expectation is. by implementing the minimum tax, it could help countries raise more than $150 billion. i wonder how big of a shift this is going to be. how much pushback is ireland going to make? what kind of loopholes will they close? what is the time frame i had of the g20 meeting next month, what is the timeframe in terms of implementing this? jonathan: you mentioned home prices, the fastest home price

growth in america in more than three decades. governor waller had this to say. i am much more sympathetic to tapering mbs first. is the pressure building? lisa: here's the question, does the fed's waller matter? we have been talking about how the top three members are the ones who set the tone. if they start tapering the mortgage purchases, that signals a rate hike. does the fed want to get on board with that? it might seem to make sense to tailor it. however, it is not so surgical when it comes to the fed balance sheet. jonathan: what do you think? is the housing market in america getting too hot? tom: it's too hot but also very segmented. it is 900 miles from spokane, washington to washington, d.c. rent dynamics of san francisco, yes, plunging, now in recovery, versus cities like spokane,

washington in western washington towards montana, i know you are unfamiliar with the map. within spokane, washington, rents never really went down and now they are going up. jonathan: i love how you do this. tom: this minster -- midcity story like spokane, washington, it's like a huge deal, rent is going up. jonathan: have you ever been? tom: no. jonathan: there you go. andrew hollenhorst joining us now, citigroup chief economist. the housing market in america, do you think the numbers we are seeing at the moment should influence the fed's next move? andrew: i think it has to be something that the fed is thinking about now. you look at mortgage rates at record lows, house prices rising at record fast rates, and then you look at the fed buying $40 billion of mortgage backed securities a month. there is a reason that those mortgage purchases were started. i think the reason for continuing them is becoming a bit more challenged.

it's not to say that they need to move immediately towards a taper. when you hear people like waller talking about, should we be looking at this? certainly something you should be thinking about. tom: i want you to talk about the partitions of america and what it means in the second have for jerome powell. you look at real wages, and there's all sorts of nuances between first core title and second and third court tile lower rages really doing port. the difference between san francisco and spokane, can the fed aggravate this natural disaster of a pandemic? will they focus on san francisco or spokane? andrew: i think you are getting at a really important point, which is that we had a huge aggregate shock to the u.s. economy, but the way that this shock has transmitted itself throughout the economy has been very unequal across regions, across income groups. you think about what the fed can do to address this, and the fed really only has a few fairly blunt tools.

you can raise our lower interest rates, buy assets. when the fed is looking at this, yes, you can think about trying to keep interest rates low, trying to hope that that boosts real wages at the bottom end of the spectrum. at some extent, you are getting some nominal wage increases for lower wage jobs right now, which is a good thing. the issue, which you are also pointing out, is prices are rising. if prices are rising faster than wages are rising, those nominal wage increases don't translate into real buying power. >> this goes to the heart of the conundrum. the federal reserve, people argue, has been exacerbating wealth inequality by betting up the prices of assets and not having the same commencement affect in the real economy. do you think that at this point, by doubling down on easy money policies, that the fed is exacerbating some of the higher prices, that higher inflation rate, and not necessarily adding to the increases in wages that

could offset that for the average american? andrew: i think it is a risk that the fed needs to take into account when they are setting policy. if you think about where we came from, it was not that long ago, a year ago when the economy was really deeply, deeply depressed due to the pandemic. and made all the sense in the world to talk about easy monetary policy, a long time of accommodation. if you think about the fed's dual mandate, employment, inflation, and you also think about financial stability concerns, the real concern should have been employment. that made a lot of sense. the difficulty now is that the recovery has just been so much faster than many people thought it would, things have happened much more quickly. we have got into a tight labor market, we have wages and prices rising. the fed needs to transition and think about risks of higher prices, higher inflation, as well as this inequality issue of asset prices. jonathan: the appetizer for payrolls on friday.

what are you and the team looking for? andrew: we think payrolls will be strong this month. we have a base case forecast of 860,000, which would be a strong greeting with an averaging about 500,000 a month. as long as we average somewhere around there, the fed will still be happy with what we are seeing. the big question is not so much what the headline jobs number is, it's, is the jobs market being held back by issues with the demand? or is the jobs market being held back with issues -- by issues with labor supply and labor shortages? jonathan: good to see you. andrew hollenhorst, the citi chief u.s. economist. your estimate, 700,000. that's the median estimate in our survey. did you have the man from delmont take back in the day -- del monte back in the day? have a look at the man and tell

you what you think about current outfit of tom keene. [laughter] do you know the man from del monte? famous commercial about fruit and the u.k. tom: thank you. we've got to give some love to 99205, spokane, washington. great breakfast, whether it is frank's breakfast or mary lou's milk bottle, it's an iconic architecture type thing. jonathan: i'm told it is 2.5 thousand miles away, not 900. tom: no, to san francisco. jon, it is like the difference between the real estate in the city and nottingham. it's a huge disparity. lisa: i would love to see the google searches during the show for each of you. del monte. jonathan: all of the above.

it's going to be a great show, isn't it? equity futures down five on the s&p. as tk points out, it's going to be a steamy one in new york city. tom: who does england play next? jonathan: they play ukraine, tom. victim, big -- big game coming up on saturday. 4277 on the s&p 500. good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i am ritika gupta. kim jong-un says a grave situation stemming from quarantine has created a crisis. he hinted at coronavirus risks that could affect his regime. it is long denied that north korea has had any infections. state run media is not providing any details. north korea has taken a drastic pointing step. a divided u.s. supreme court has

refused to lift the federal moratorium on evictions during the pandemic. that will leave the ban in place until the end of july. the vote was 5-4. justices rejected calls by landlords and real estate associations to block the moratorium while their challenge goes forward. the plaintiffs argued that the cdc exceeded its authority by imposing the ban. a big foul up and vote counting for the race for mayor of new york city. the city's board of elections took down previously reported results after mistakenly counting test ballots. that produced about 135,000 dummy ballots, which skewed results. the inaccurate count showed eric adams moving a large part of his lead over the former cdc sanitation commissioner. elon musk is unhappy about laws that caused a scheduled lunch to be scrubbed in florida. musk because the restricted area

unreasonably gigantic and says the current regulatory system is broken. the faa says the system works and kept people safe. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ pres. biden: this is a

generational investment, a general relational -- generational investment to modernize our infrastructure to create millions of good and jobs -- good paying jobs. that's coming from wall street. millions of good paying jobs that position america to compete with the rest of the within the 21st century. jonathan: the president of the united states, joe biden. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. wednesday morning, after closing out yesterday with the smallest day of gains to complete a 4-day winning streak. equity futures down 5 as we close out a second quarter and the first half of the year. yields in, tk, down a little more than a basis point on the day. the euro at 1.19. weaker. euro-dollar 1.1884. tom: jon, again, i would just simply go to the fixed income

market and what we see in in as being really indicative. let's do this right now, every once in a while, an essay comes along that redefines the landscape in washington. it's no surprise that david ignatius could write that up in the "washington post." annmarie hordern joins us. david ignatius talks about a hugely difficult thing to do, and we have seen this way back, i would say back into the early 19th century, this shift from a senatorial tone, the happy, the backslapping, the smiling, over to a presidential tone, what that might be. how is president biden doing in making the shift from senatorial over to presidential? >> if you read the opinion piece by david ignatius, it sounds like, at least from his perspective, a little more needs to be done by the president. he talked about the fact that he was so giddy to announce his

infrastructure bipartisan deal with senators, but he says he needs to take that backslapping, that giddiness and really hone his skills in the senate but to achieve it and become presidential. that's the only way he will be able to get is legislation through. right now, they are able to have his bipartisan infrastructure bill but the president and this adventist ration wants to work in tandem -- this administration wants to work in tandem to get a larger deal done through reconciliation. that means the white house has been calling. we saw the white house counselor talk to the progressive caucus yesterday and make sure that their own party is in line. that's where there's tension, between moderate democrats and those on the very left. tom: what is interesting here is the need for discipline. when does a president step in and start with what every president has to do, which is get on the phone and structure a discipline, in this case, within a fractious democratic party? does that happen now or in the

cooler autumn? >> i imagine that happens in the cooler fall, tom, just because he has his whole staff working the funds, going up on the hill and talking to progressives. also, what you have right now as they are still working out what they want in this deal. i don't think we got to a level, there has been no pen to paper. there is no -- one of the key sticking point is the price for this. you have senator bernie sanders looking at a $2 trillion bill, while you have the likes of senator joe manchin from west virginia talking about the fact that he won't even put a price tag on it yet, wants to make sure it could be paid for. speaking over the, he says he is for higher taxes, but not as high as some progressives like. there is still a lot of wrangling that needs to be done before the president gets involved. >> at what point does president biden have to take sides? he's trying to please everybody. we are going to have this

bipartisan deal, he is saying to the progressive democrats, we are also going to have a $6 trillion plan that can further spending. when does he have to say, ok, i am going bipartisan or i am going bipartisan? >> i don't think we are going to hear that just yet. david ignatius is talking about the fact that the country does not want to hear that. the country wants a middle-of-the-road approach after what we saw the divisiveness in washington, d.c. to get both of these individual bills accomplished, the president is going to walk this fine line, at least for now. it remains to be seen if he's going to have to be pushed one way or the other. lisa: there's a question about whether he has a plan for how to do this or whether he is trying to appease everyone. the idea that he was touring wisconsin, a republican leading country, at the same time he is shifting gears to try to bring democrats back on board. how cohesive is his strategy, at least as perceived by those

in the beltway? >> when he was in wisconsin, he was definitely speaking to those that voted for president donald trump, a republican base. but we cannot lose fact that his staff is here in washington up on the hill talking to the progressive carcass and making sure they can start hammering some of those key things that the progressives want to see in a larger infrastructure deal, things like free community college, lowering medicare costs. so he is working these two tracks. i understand your point from a pr perspective. he was definitely in gop territory but his team is certainly working the phones with the left. jonathan: we will hear from the president again later this morning. it is hot in new york city. it has been scorching on the west coast. >> yes, it certainly has. at 11:00 a.m., is going to be making this announcement talking about the heat and also what it

means in terms of electricity grids. he made a nod to this yesterday in wisconsin, especially on the heels of what we saw this past winter with potential collapse of the texas grid due to extreme winter weather. what does the heat do? you are sitting in new york. i don't know if any of you got a call from conned, but it's not just the pacific northwest, it's throughout the entire country. you do have these worries about electrical grids and we are only at the end of june. we are not even in july and august yet. it is definitely going to be a hot summer. the president and his administration is starting to prepare for the. jonathan: thank you. annmarie hordern, r bloomberg washington correspondent, down in d.c. this weather is no joke. tom: it is no joke and it shifts the dialogue. i don't care what anybody says. i looked carefully at the drought map, and i know there is a fear of the drought moving

west. it is barely into western colorado. if it moves farther to the east, that's not good. what i would focus on is the overlay of it, the template of it in the q3 and what it means for gdp, utility expenses and such. you've got the health issues, which they are already seeing in the pacific northwest. vancouver with some really difficult statistics. jonathan: what is your take? lisa: this from a new york times essay yesterday, extreme heat is the deadliest form of extreme weather in the united states, causing more debts on average -- deaths on average than hurricanes and floods combined in the last 30 years. to me, this does change the dialogue, as tom says. jonathan: lisa abramowicz with the weather report. i know it's a serious point. lisa: i don't mean to go super dark, but i thought it was pretty interesting. jonathan: happening elsewhere, bloomberg's new economy catalysts bringing together

innovators and creative thinkers discussing solutions to society's greatest challenges. watch online. bloomberg subscribers can watch on live go. [laughter] tom: the man from del monte, he will be there, for dora and all.

♪ jonathan: live from new york city, wednesday morning, good morning. here's the price action. equity futures on the s&p 500 down about three points. on a four-day winning streak, the longest winning streak going all the way back to march. a fifth straight month of gains in the cards and fifth straight quarterly gains. i will do a little bit more of that in the next hour. switch up the board. yields come in, 29 basis points on 10's, after exploding 83 basis points to the first quarter. 1.4545 and a more defensive posture in the equity market reflecting the fact that breakevens topped out back in

may. that gives you a hint of where things have been going. that's the bond market. finish in foreign-exchange. euro-dollar shaping up as follows, -0.1%. euro-dollar, 1.1887. tom: it's been a struggle. explain why. this is one of the surprises of the last 30 days. jonathan: that incrementaljonathan: evolution in the federal reserve communication. tom: yes, yes. francine: away from transitory -- jonathan: away from transitory to a more balanced view. that engineered a nice move in the u.s. dollar. tom: the silence of the ecb, will do much more on that enter july. anthony emails, says andrea, we cannot get the joy of the men from del monte. tom: i am wearing one of my

bathing suits. i wear this suit to weddings and divorces as well. also, always a sartorial, ron temple joins us now from lazard asset management with a really brilliant not. i love how you extend out to an elevated but not a panic inflation for 2024. should i be worrying about inflation? ronald: i think you should be thinking about inflation but i think the debate about inflation should really start focusing on which side of 2% are we going to land on tom: when i think about -- land on? i think increasingly the possibility is that we will land in that 2%-3% zone. we are not going back to the 1970's but it has meaningful implications for asset allocations.

tom: mr. correo has talked about the bright lights of nominal gdp. does your elevated inflation and give me a larger nominal gdp, which gives me a good stock market? ronald: i do believe it does. i am quite optimistic. i think we have quite a bit of runway on gp. i think we will land in that 2%-3% on inflation. we have tremendous pent-up demand from consumers. u.s. households with $2.1 trillion of excess savings. i believe we will get incremental stimulus from the federal government their infrastructure, kind of to the conversation you are just having. i believe there is quite a bit of momentum that's going to spread out into 2022 and 2023. jonathan: what has worked over the years so far has been a cyclical story. more recently, that has broken down her little bit.

big tech outperforming the banks on wall street. what would you like to own through the back half an internet steer? -- and entered next year -- and into next year? ronald: if you agree with my forecast, that to me says you are going to have a steepening yield curve and you will go back to the dynamic that you saw in the fourth quarter of last year, first quarter of this year, where traditionally value oriented stocks outperformed growth. understand whether the returns on capital a company can deliver now and in the near term and are they sustainable in this environment, and compare that with the companies that have been driving the market the last five years. the highly speculative companies are driven by cash flow in the future. i think you will want to own those mark cyclical companies -- those more cyclical companies. jonathan: where does energy fit into that thinking? ronald: i think back to the topic you were just discussing

around what we are seeing in terms of the weather environment in the u.s. read you have to be leaving -- living in a state of denial not to recognize the reality of climate change. i think when you are getting into energy, there are definitely opportunities but you have to be very mindful of the sustainability of some of these business models and the risk of stranded assets and the transition we are going to have to have an energy? >> are you buying or selling? ronald: i am not bullish on fossil fuels. we have to be looking at the opportunities for the new energy transition. the challenge is identifying opportunities where valuations are attractive. i tend to think the best opportunity related to energy is probably in parts of the industrial sector that will make this energy transition possible. in those, you can find some very good valuations. >> there's a question going forward, how much has already been brought forward at a time when people have already expected that growth, expected

the infrastructure spending boost? how do you determine what has been priced in already? ronald: i think this is where the bottom of fundamental work that we are known for at lazard is really important, trying to go through each company, understand what our forecasts are. there are a number of pockets in the market where you can still find opportunities. it might not be directly related to infrastructure or cyclical upswing. i think some of the banks have demonstrated through this cycle that they can deliver higher trough returns than what we would have sought before. the balance sheets they did is partly a result of regulatory oversight. if you go into the health care space, there are some pretty exciting things going on in the med-tech area. if you think about recovery plays, there were quite a few medical procedures that did not happen in 2020 because they were deemed to be elective. i don't consider getting a pacemaker something i want for christmas. i think these are things that

people might have needed and they could not get done. . we could see an increase in demand over the next several years as we catch up in those areas. there are quite a few areas in the market with good opportunities, it's all about securities selection. tom: combine the lazard asset management work with your outside resources on an earnings call for the standards and poor's 500. we've got great debate on this show about what earnings will be. which way do you go directionally? ronald: i am looking for strong earnings. i think there is still upside in terms of earnings expectations. they are definitely going to be some kind of shall we say idiosyncrasies and volatilities because of the supply chain bottlenecks we have seen. i think a lot of economists are trying to grapple with this challenge right now, is predicting through our way there a pandemic was impossible. there were a lot of considerations we did not think about on the way out of the pandemic. we all have to be humble.

i still see strong revenue trajectory and a strong earnings trajectory that i think will extend out for several years. jonathan: the whole episode has been humbling for everyone to some degree. it's an important lesson for us all. looking at the incoming data, that has been hard, too. there is plenty of fundamental justification for ignoring the data at this stage in the cycle, not least of which has been the ongoing lack of context that the magnitude of these surprises and the misses as well. how do you interpret the incoming data? ronald: i am never going to say ignore the data but i fully understand why they said that. my key point is, let's not overreact to any single piece of data in the near term, in particular back to the inflation discussion. when i think about inflation, i think the key data to watch is going to be coming from august through the end of the year. i focus on that area because we know there are a number of bottlenecks in the economy,

whether it be transportation issues, semi conductor shortages, labor dislocations. we will get a lot more clarity on the labor peace as we go into the next school year. that will free up parents to go back into the labor force. 3.5 million people have left the labor force since the beginning of the pandemic. i would bet a large majority of those people are because they have to be at home with their children or with elderly relatives they are caring for. we are still down 7.5 million people on unemployment. you will have schools back in session, extended unemployment benefits will expire nationally, and i think we are going to see then how the labor market gradually returns to normal. that will help people get these inflation fears under wraps. >> right now, is that your way of saying that you think the bias in markets is perhaps too much inflation down the road, is that your sense? ronald: it's interesting. prior to june 16, the market was

thinking too much about inflation, it was over worried. part of why i started by saying we need to move out of the tales of discussion, there is too much debate about the fed losing control of inflation and the idea of rampant inflation. with june 16, i regret that the fed blinked and succumbed to market pressure. i think the fed might have damaged its credibility. i think what we are going to see over the rest of the year as may be the positive of that message on june 16 was the fed bought itself time to prove to the markets that this is not a debate about 4% inflation, but more of a debate of 2.5% versus 2%. jonathan: we spent 60 months over 50 basis points. ron temple, it's good to catch up. thank you. ronald: thank you very much. jonathan: we are going to spend six months arguing over 50 basis points. i want to into that debate. one thing that keeps coming up again is august, september time

and beyond. >> the idea here also that this will coincide with the jackson hole meeting, one the federal reserve will have to start indicating that they are going to taper if they are going to do it within the next six months. i don't see how things will materially change by august. people are going to be saying, the data is still noisy. jonathan: we keep coming back to august, september to wait to see cleaner data, apparently. tom: we are waiting frogs, september -- we are waiting for august, september. where was i wrong in january and february, that kind of question has to come up. i have real trouble with the certitude now as i did in january. we are in the middle of a natural disaster, we have not even touched on delta. jonathan: we will do that next. john hopkins associate professor of emergency medicine.

negative or about 0.1% at 4278. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. your equity market at all-time highs. in new york city, it's going to be a hot one. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i am ritika gupta. the u.s. and taiwan were discussed semi conductors and vaccines today at a long-delayed trade talk. the global shortage of computer chips, taiwan is one of the main suppliers and its biggest manufacturer is building a new factory here in the u.s. taiwan's eventual goal in the talks is a full trade deal. in bipartisan using over tax policy. 18 lawmakers from both sides of the aisle made their hasten the cost. the so-called stock deduction is a top priority for lawmakers from high tax states such as new york, new jersey and california.

the british government has revealed its post-brexit system for overseeing subsidies to companies. it is promising to make quicker decisions on when the country -- quicker decisions than when the country was in the european union. in hong kong, another blow to jimmy lai. his company says it will cease operations tomorrow. next digital is the publisher of the apple daily. the paper closed last week after hong kong referred to the chinese security lot to arrest editors -- law to arrest editors and executives. credit suisse may consolidate several private banking units. the move would replace original structure and may reduce costs as well as present a more unified approach to clients. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than

2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> we are doing on the vaccine front is to test all known

variants against the vaccine and the immune response that we see. yesterday, we presented data that indicates that at least for some variants, it's covered but we have to be very careful because we cannot fully anticipate what is next. we have to keep testing and if needed, adjusting the vaccines over time to be able to protect against new threats. jonathan: a fascinating conversation earlier this morning. that was the moderna cofounder and chairman speaking at bloomberg's new economy catalyst event. good morning. alongside tankan, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equities down a little more than 0.1% in the equity market pulling back from record highs potentially. we managed to squeeze were not yesterday. yields down two basis points. that dollar strength in the mix through g10, euro-dollar 1.1888. tom: a wednesday of

windowdressing. it's absolutely accurate the way we squeezed it out yesterday afternoon. right now with an update after that important conversation with the gentleman from moderna. lauren summers joins us from john hopkins university. i was thunderstruck. they had a sample size i believe of 8 people. it really shows that the pros like you are totally fired up on analyzing delta, alpha, beta, whatever the variant is in the rest of us are out watching baseball. what do we need to do to get america engaged as your profession is engaged right now? >> i think we are creeping towards fall and the hope is that we will continue to dig into the data over the next few months to understand how the coverage is going, especially with the delta variant, which is

absolutely gaining strength across the globe. i think these small studies are helpful because it's what we have, right, so it's better than nothing. we want to see more data from the cdc as they continue to look through their breakthroughs. i would love to see a publication from the cdc on what breakthrough data is showing, perhaps pushing towards some new vaccination strategies to build protection. these small studies are what we are going to have to keep looking at as we continue to inch towards better coverage with the vaccines and the growth of the delta sort of erased right. tom: if the key factor is the unvaccinated, do you assume delta variant could be highly regional or even rural, urban? lauren: i think it is that unvaccinated and i think a lot of us are concerned about what might happen with single-dose vaccinated population. we saw some good pfizer data, we take moderna will be protective. the johnson & johnson vaccine,

people who have the single-dose vaccine, so perhaps there will be changing vaccination strategies. we are seeing this and other countries, where they might get a booster of another vaccine, for example. we are also chasing down the people who have only gotten one dose and making sure that the second dose regime is being followed. those pockets of unvaccinated individuals, we are going to really have to focus efforts on the regional areas where we see low vaccines so we don't have pockets of large groups of people getting sick and ending up in hospitals and those hospitals being overrun. lisa: when do we have to stop worrying about delta and start worrying about data, eta, omega? >> delta is definitely the concern right now. it is inching its way across the globe and not even inching, it is going quickly across the globe. i think we will continue to have

to keep an eye on it. we will continue to look at new variantsd as they pop up, making sure sequencing capabilities allow us to do that, continuing to do the hard surveillance work that public health entities are doing. i think as vaccine coverage increases and we have these great vaccines, which is incredible, the new variants become less worrisome. the more we can uptick that vaccine coverage globally, the less we have to worry about the new variants. lisa: in the u.s., when can kids under the age of 12 start to get vaccinated? lauren: i think studies are happening right now, so i would imagine that it will -- we will start to see those programs move forward as fall school comes back. i don't know the exact time. i have not kept up on when they are planning for those studies to finish but i think we will

see kids getting vaccinated in the near future. tom: lauren, if we look at this july, what we are waiting for is under age 12. when do we see that? >> under age 12 getting vaccinated? we have to wrap up the studies for the kids under 12 getting vaccinated, and then those programs will start to roll out. i don't know the timing for when young kids will begin to be vaccinated, but i think it is on the docket for sure. it is our prayer already to get everyone vaccinated -- it is a priority to get everyone vaccinated. as we can take advantage of our vaccine supply, make sure that it's going to people who need vaccines here or going to global efforts to support worldwide vaccine coverage to reduce the likelihood of seeing new variants, that has to be the priority. jonathan: i want to get a final word on the data you are focused on right now. a case study in the u.k. or israel. i was going through the u.k.'s recent data, 23 deaths within

the last 28 days for positive tests. your take on the data you are seeing out of the u.k., israel and elsewhere? lauren: i think we are just starting to see the -- we definitely are seeing the delta variant is more transmissible. we are just starting to see the difference in what the symptoms look like, the difference in the severity. i would love to see more data on that. i think it is great that they are releasing these studies as quickly as they get them, essentially, but it does look like it might be more severe. we just have to wait and see what the data show on that severity, and do all of the hard public health work that has to continue to happen to reduce the likelihood of spread an infection of delta. jonathan: the words we are all hoping to hear through the summer, decoupling, decoupling. can we say thank you as well? i know this was your last appearance for johns hopkins university, you are moving to nebraska.

thank you so much from me and the team for everything you have done with us through the last 12, 18 months. lauren: it's been great to be with you guys. jonathan: lauren sauer, university, emergency professor, emergency medicine. we are all looking at the data, the same data, and trying to work out if we see that decoupling through the summer. tom: i looked carefully today, i don't see it. the resilience index from bloomberg is the same way. it is global. i think where we are midyear is a disparity between the countri es struggling and the ones really doing well. will that be the study six months from now or will it be about the delta variant? jonathan: for that matter, i think israel and the u.k. top of mind, two countries that have done extraordinarily well together vaccine distributed and try to work out how much the delta variant affects them. lisa: how much will people

follow along with any further restrictions? jonathan: coming up, bank of america's head of research investment institute. just pulling back from all-time highs on the s&p 500. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> clearly with them -- there's clearly a sense of optimism and enthusiasm in the market. >> the demand is going to be very strong. >> as this global recovery is unfolding, investors need to think more global in their portfolios as well. >> the fundamentals are going to keep getting better here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: coming into wednesday at all-time highs. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. looking at the markets right now, down five on the s&p. we are set to close out the quarter for a 5th street quarterly gain. still up by a little more