think more global in their portfolios. >> the momentum will spread out into 2022 and 2023. >> we might even see deflationary forces work their way back into the system. >> the fed needs to transition and think about higher prices, higher inflation. >> the pressure will glow on the fed to announce tapering. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: a five-day winning streak coming into thursday. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. equity futures are 42.9 four. we are kicking off q3. tom: we have jobs in and all that, and we will get to that. jon, i agree with you, kicking off the second half of the year is a huge deal. how many people were wrong about earnings strength. gina martin adams and others nail that.

we are also at a shell shocked by what we have seen over 180 days. jon: let's frame the forward look. this is your median estimate from the strategist we surveyed year-end on the s&p 500, 4600 is the high-end with credit suisse. the low-end is bank of america. how may upgrades do we start to see if this continues? tom: john and i never talk, barely on speaking terms, but the zeitgeist today, joyce chang at jp morgan in the last hour reaffirms 4400 for jp morgan. i'm sorry, what they are doing in every other shop as you say, they are waiting to get the first gloss of earnings, and assuming it is a zeitgeist, it will be better than expected, they will go what you think, i don't think a 5000 but they will all come up. jon: they will come up to watch, lisa? the slow grind is pushing them higher. record high after record high. lisa: i'm not going to get my quarterly expectation of where

we will end the year on the s&p. what i will give you is backing the grind higher in the equity market, we see a grind lower in corporate bond yields. if we take a look at good spreads, the extra yield you earn dropped to a new low of 80 basis points. this is shocking because it is almost near record lows. tom: translate that for me. lisa: this symbolizes two things, first, there is no concern in markets about a default cycle. number two, there is a real averaging or perhaps a doubling down on leverage in corporate america. you can see this from the net issuance, the net build in debt climbing to all-time highs. jon, how much longer can this push the rally out? jon: my favorite line from jp morgan, we see little value in spreads here and nothing to push that much wider. the second part of the sentence is the problem. lisa: what's going to cause a selloff?

especially when the federal reserve is willing to back this market. jon: true. many people think the fed is supporting this market. that's one of the reasons why we didn't see much of a mess. tom: lisa just elegantly put it, i'm sorry that it is the pendulum of growing debt. omg the growing debt. this elsewhere's issuance the other day, what did we see? was it amazon or apple, i can't remember 50 days ago. the growing debts, omg i can't be in the market. jon: that will shape up higher interest rates as well. what could the fed do in that environment? tom: the fed will be data-dependent. it may they ever been -- have ever been. i will never be more focused on what we will see from earnings, and i can't convey how this earnings season is different. jon: that kicks off july 13 with jp morgan. 42 point 92 on s&p 500 futures. advancing almost 1.1% -- .1%. down 12 points on the nasdaq

100. yields of about one basis point, and euro-dollar kicking off q3 at 119. tom, just for you, 74.16. tom: opec is in the mix. jon: i agree. tom: the bentley was down today so i took kenny in the lift. [laughter] lisa: we are getting to oil in just one second, because in the day ahead, we should get a sense of what we could expect with respect to supplies coming back online. 8:30, let's get started with jobless claims. the initial claims of the week. i'm interested to see how much further this falls. the expectation is for 380,000 down from 411,000. last week, again, the steady climb lower. at what point do we reach a ceiling that perhaps labor market is improving more dramatically as they jump to tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls? today, we will also get the opec

plus meeting to consider output boosts, the question on based on a credible demand coming back online, will saudi arabia allow some of the output production to go back into the market? this has been the argument for the likes of russia, saudi arabia has pushed back. u.s. auto sales today to be released for june. the expectation is to climb quite a bit, not just because of demand but because this applies not there. this goes to the chip shortage we have been talking about. when you look here, they have been less crowded in the past even with a growing number of consumers looking for cars. jon: let's dig our teeth into the second half of 2021. the global head of strategy, i want to start with where we have been and where you think we are going. and the data you are looking for when the payrolls data comes out tomorrow morning. >> first of all, good morning and thank you for having me. it is always a pleasure.

we talk about the first half and looking forward to the second half but it has been a tale of several quarters. the first quarter was the u.s. vaccination roll and u.k. vaccination rollout. equities were strong, the dollar was powering ahead, q2 we saw a bit of a push back with the rest of the world catching up. now, q3 is starting up and i think we are back to what we saw in one in the u.s., outperforming in terms of vaccinations, and terms of rose. -- growth. so we have had payrolls and as you point out the consensus is for tomorrow. i think the fed and everyone else has been shocked by how fast the vaccine rollout has come, how fast inflation is rising, and how long that

inflationary builds. the fed does a very delicate balancing act. there's also some issues in the labor market. it is hard to see structural changes, but i think the u.s. economy [indiscernible] tom: i see very clearly on the bloomberg terminal that the major country, dxy index -- major country dxy index is doing better than the bloomberg dxy index. what does that mean for em in the next half? in the next 180 days, does em go to sleep as we see strong dollar? win: that is the $1 million question. i think it goes into what was talked about earlier about spreads. yemen is the risk asset, it does well in periods of liquidity, strong growth, but it gets dicey on when the fed is tightening in

the dollar gaining. i see diversions, and we have seen diversions already this year. those em countries that are tightening already well probably get cushion, brazil, russia, several others, mexico already hyped. it goes -- hiked. i think it goes back to the circle, we see a reflection point and the liquidity. to me, there is no doubt they will taper by year-end. i'm not sure the markets are prepared for that. i really wonder where the more spreads are and where the em is, and the markets realize that's. em is tightening -- that. em is tightening. i think there will be a little catch-up. i like the em story in general, but asia is doing badly with the vaccine rollout and australia is there, having trouble reopening.

everything at this point is going right to the dollar. lisa: if we are talking about dollar strengthening, the main issue you talk about is convergence of central banks. that has not always been the dominant driver of currency in the past say two years. we have seen also economic growth being a main driver. the recovery trade in terms of which region is entering the biggest and most rapid phase of recovery from the pandemic, why are we shifting back to essential bank divergence policy, diversions platform that will influence currencies? win: i think the point i was at, there are two sides of the same coin. we would not be talking about a combination of tapering in the u.s. unless the u.s. growth story were exceptional. to me, it goes back to prices. -- crisis.

the central banks, those are coming out the best and those of the central banks really talking about a combination. they went to do -- they went into the pandemic and were in absolutely no hurry for defining inflation for many years. they know they don't want to move to -- too prematurely. these factors change but we are coming out of a period of exceptional interest rates. i think that is why it is so important. jon: thank you for being with us this morning. win thin, the global head of strategy from brown brothers. a column from the new york fed president just dropping, bill dudley, saying the federal reserve will take the tk, don't freak out. tom: i'm speed reading through it. we get this like you do. i like what he says about his

definition of substantial further progress, which is my goal at getting through the weekend, not in 100 degree temperature, but bill dudley further progress is out several months. jon: my issue is he says the federal reserve has a plan this time in a way they can awaken 2013. he goes through a point by point, talking about tapering, raising interest rates, then the gradual runoff of the balance sheet. the issue i have a that is yes they have a plan. the problem is the markets know the plan, and the market will think about the next sequence and start moving further down the road quickly. lisa: that's what i've been giving a lot of thought to, with respect to criticism around the mortgage purchases especially. how much are the housing market prices stymied? jon: i'm sure those of the federal reserve are concerned. tom: england has a plan against ukraine.

jon: they have a plan for saturday. you have a plan for how to watch the game? tom: somebody on ukraine is hurt. jon: which one? tom: i don't know, someone on ukraine assert. jon: one of the guys is hurt -- is hurt. jon: one of the guys is hurt. lisa: [laughter] jon: let's not do sports this morning. let's focus on a market. 42.93 on the s&p. -- 4293 coming in on the s&p. good morning, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. a grand jury in manhattan handed out criminal charges against of the trump organization and cfo. the charges will remain sealed until today, the first to emerge from a multiyear investigation of the former president company. donald trump or his sons are expected to be charged. xi jinping had a speech today marking the 100th anniversary of

the country's communist party. his quest to gain control taiwan is at historic mission and he warns the country's enemies will break against day "still great wall." the house passed the democratic -- only two republicans voted in favor. the rest of republicans dismissed the investigation as an exercise in politics. the citigroup ceo says almost all of the employees will return to the office. he will say they will have some blended approach, allowing some work from home, and they were given a competitive edge in retaining staff. the dow jones said a stock trading at once people to sign up to buy shares on its new ipo platform. retail investors shut out the

ipo's. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think it will be healthier

to start sooner rather than later. why? excess risk-taking, accesses and housing market, and imbalances in the overall economy. i do believe if we take our foot off of the accelerator now, we will have more flexibility down the road to avoid severe actions in the future. jon: that was robert kaplan, the dallas fed president catching up with michael mckee on bloomberg tv and radio. good morning, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. before i turn to price action, can we talk about what counts as a hawk over at the federal reserve these days? this is what we call the chief talk, the fed president, and -- hawk, the fed president, and he is talking about taking it off of the accelerator. that tells you the world we are in right now. this is a different world. tom: it's a really important distinction. i back to the work of john b

taylor out of stanford university on the gaps and range if you will around 2%. we have not discovered the high-end of the range in years. the hawks are practicing being hawks. it is a work in progress. jon: do you think coast-to-coast one the argument all of those years ago? tom: i think the gentleman from the university of rochester in minneapolis did very well on that. it is all 2020 hindsight. i'm gentle with the inflation east does and someone like paul has a respect for theories they had even though they fought with him the whole way. it is not about being right it's about looking forward. what are we looking forward to given the fiscal structure? jon: let's turn to the price action. 4292 on the s&p 500, a five-day winning streak into thursday. your bond market, yields higher by 147.81. up by about one basis point. unchanged on euro-dollar as we kick off q3. jon: it is a jobs --

tom: it is jobs day as we going to claims and jobs tomorrow. anne-marie joins us from the view from washington. infrastructure and others, i have to look at the late donald rumsfeld. i had an interview with him on peeling paid on the north wall of the lighthouse. all i can a foe -- all i can associate with him and all of his controversy is the long war. where is the state of exhaustion in washington now to the long war? >> incredibly exhausted, tom, and we are just off of the heels of the meeting with the afghanistan president here with president biden in washington, d.c. they discussed the troop deployment as part of president biden was a plan. by september 11 to have troops, besides low-level presence for diplomats, to exit afghanistan. this is the longest war in u.s. history besides first and

foremost a human consequence. also close to one showing dollars on the afghanistan war. and of course there is iraq. this is the chief criticism of the late donald rumsfeld. jon: what is so important, counting the beans of these long wars is the military coming into the fourth of july, a recalibration of what the military does. it seems it will be front and center for general austin to recalibrate what we do. >> certainly, and recalibrate where the troop deployment is, the level of deployment we have and presence we have particularly in the middle east. we also still have a presence in iraq, one of the main criticisms , influential career and a controversial career for donald rumsfeld. in iraq particularly, the

criticism was about engagement in leaving. what was the plan to leave these countries and clearly you see the united states has been dealt there in the middle east for number of presidents that have struggled to get troops out. lisa: the long war overseas and back at home has to do with infrastructure. this time, infrastructure week is trying to get something done. the latest is the white house is trying to pressure the gop by talking about how infrastructure, bridges, roads are crumbling. is the gop their main concern at this point? >> i don't think the gop is the main concern in terms of hard infrastructure in the senate. i take you to the house yesterday because that is where the action was where speaker pelosi came out again and said the house will not, she reiterated the redline in the sand, the house will not vote on a bipartisan hard infrastructure plan until it is also past in tandem with a multi trillion

dollar spending human infrastructure, if you will. what the house is doing right now is they are communicating on how they would like to see a hard infrastructure bill. every similar to what we see in the senate but a little more emphasis when it comes to hard infrastructure on climate policies as well. lisa: are we getting a sense of the contours of the reconciliation bill drafted along the bipartisan act? annmarie: it is still very much in the air. this is all negotiations verbally, nothing has been drafted yet. the main sticking point will be the price tag. you have the $6 trillion, what senator bernie sanders is looking at, but then you have moderate democrats saying that might be too high. they are for the increase of taxes to really provide for this human infrastructure and multitrillion dollar spending, but not to a level any of the progressives would want to see. jon: we are touching on a bunch

of issues. let me finish with one more if we may. the trump organization is very much the news in last 24 hours. what are we looking for? lisa: today is the day we set -- we were sent to get the indictments. they were indicted yesterday but they were sealed. we will get those charges. i think something many people might be confused about, this is from the trump organization and cfos of the organization, allen weisselberg. the thing to watch out for today is exactly what these charges are. those indictments are under seal . the thing with the cfo is he does not have a trump last name and is the only person without a trump last name that is so close to this organization. we will be looking out for those charges. in washington, d.c., it is important because of the president's hold on the republican party. this is something people look forward to see, what these charges are. jon: thank you. annmarie hordern, our

correspondent in washington dc. as we kick off q3, futures rolling over a little bit, unchanged on the session almost. tom: day after day we go up, and by the time we get to 2:00 p.m. and the close, we have a list going on. it is there. jon: the conflation of the grind has shifted the past quarter coming into q3. that has been about big tech versus the banks of financials. lisa: if you look at the value shares, the russell 1000 for example, one of the biggest under performances of the past few months. just to talk about divergencies you're seeing, the idea going forward, are we going to double down on this recovery kind of phase or are we shifting into a recognition of a reality more inflationary? i know i will get the pendulum of disinflation, but here we are. jon: you just couldn't help it, couldn't you -- could you? lisa: i couldn't help it. jon: same script, q1, q2, could

come in q3. yields up about one basis point. from new york city -- tom: ukraine is stacked. i think they look good. jon: thank you, tom. lisa: [laughter] jon: value added all morning on tv and radio. tom: good morning. jon: this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jon: coming into thursday's trading session on the s&p markets, the s&p 500, 4289, pushing 4290 on the s&p 500. five months of gains, five quarters of gains on the s&p 500. we keep grinding them out. nasdaq down by about .2%. a bit of underperformance a little bit, but if you switch up the board, you get a sense of the outperformance on the nasdaq over the last three months, quarter, one month on the nasdaq 100 as well. what is driving that? this is what i wanted to finish on. the curve, i have gone with twos tens, over the last three months, has declined by 28 basis points. you have to go other back to january 2015 to see a move like

that. january 2015, early 2015, what we are redoing in early 2015? the ecb included sovereigns in the sf program. that has -- that is how big the move has been. a move we have not seen like that since early 2015. what is driving it? is it a reflection of the equity markets? tom: stay on that. that chart is it chart jon ferro and i never thought we would be talking about 2021. that pullback curve flattening is extraordinary. lisa: you made fun of me for disinflationary and that is what this suggests. tom: that's true, i will give you that. lisa: [laughter] carry-on. jon: don't get excited about the end of the world. lisa: [laughter] jon: just looking at a move of 28 basis points. thank you, lisa. tom: i think it starts to lie 13. i will go earnings. i do want to bring you a headline, we will follow this all day, this is the chief

financial officer of the trump organization, this has been widely anticipated and reported by the post last night. the process will begin out of an office in new york. these are the first actions. the word indictment is used for the chief financial officer of the trump organization. widely expected to touch on the use of taxation and benefits, but you wonder if there will be a surprise along the way. we will process this through the morning. we believe we see documents this afternoon as well. we always read the documents with joseph lavonia, the chief economist of america's. what are the thing you are tweaking here? >> interestingly enough, johnson was talking about the two tens with why the curve was flattening so much. that has been due to the markets expectation of the terminal fed's fund rate coming down

significantly. on your bloomberg terminal, you can pull up your five-year and that has rallied from 240 basis points, the peak in the lifecycle, to around 170 basis points, so we basically had a 70 basis point rally since april, where the market thinks the terminal rate will end the cycle , and that accounts for the substantial flattening, and yes you don't have much inflation pressure. tom: i'm thrilled you went there. let's focus on this now. it is joseph lavorgna of goldman sachs -- it is joseph lavorgna. goldman sachs and others say we are going below 3%. do you agree with that, that the terminal value of our growth is under 3%? joseph: it doesn't have to be that way, but that seems to be the consensus. even in the biden budget, they are forecasting gdp at 1.9%. it does seem like the consensus of forecasters are shifting down

to a sub 2% world. i would love to see 3%. it is possible we could get 3%. i'm not a testament of productivity growth. it is possible this crisis, this pandemic was an accelerant of productivity growth. we will find these new ways to exist that is long-term and could lead to higher productivity. what i can tell you in the short-term is the economy is booming this year and has a tremendous -- has had a tremendous amount of stimulus. that is why the equity market is so up. where it goes beyond will be a function of regulatory policy, fiscal policy, and as we get the right program in place, i don't see why growth can't be much faster than 2%. jon: i want to tease out a couple scenarios given what you said and maybe take out the last bit. can you envision a scenario where the federal reserve gets stuck here? joseph: absolutely. i have done a few interviews with other sources saying i believe the fed is stuck in a box. i say that because simply put,

if the fed can't taper the economy when gdp is running at least 7%, maybe a percent this year, how will it taper next year when the economy is downshifted massively and inflation is lower? they have a real timing and consistency problem. i don't see them being able to do it. the last cycle is seven years from the first rate hike, and i believe four years from the time they begin to taper -- began to taper. they won't move nearly as quickly as they think they are. jon: bill dudley out with a piece on bloomberg.com, saying the federal taper, don't freak out. don't you think it is that simple and straight forward? joseph: i don't. i would argue if you look at the forward market, as i highlighted the outside, the market does not believe the federal taper. the fed last year put 45% into treasuries, their single biggest buyer -- they were the single biggest buyer and the balance sheet is approaching 40% of gdp. their ability to navigate is

significantly more difficult today than eight years ago. to say they could do it and it will be seamless i think is very naive. lisa: what is a tailwind the economy is getting at this point from the fed policy remaining this easy and has been, as you talk about the fed stuck in a box and possibly not able to raise rates? joseph: the policy is basically, i would argue the economy was healthy in february 2020. we we opened -- we reopened, tremendous fiscal stimulus, and we have had over $5 trillion of covid related spending. and you have this demand boom, supply has been slow to catch up, which is why you have had the inflation. but the economy, there is so much pent-up demand it will moderate, but if you leave it alone, it will be fine. certainly both dials, this kind monetary, are both curtailed.

we are in good shape, i just don't see the fed able to do anything on the rate hike side. if you have fiscal stimulus, it right ironically because their ability to me do anything. who will be buying this debt? lisa: how important is the jobs number we will be getting tomorrow in order to determine fed policy? joseph: it's important in the sense that if it comes in softer than expected, and we will get a soft report soon, you will see it flatten even more. in terms of the bigger picture, i do not think employment numbers matter that much. if it is weak, people will say because of labor shortages. i don't think it matters. the inflation numbers are driving mainstream and most -- main street and most investment decisions. . tom: the equity markets, chapter 23 of a live the blame chart,

whatever, how do you observe the run of the great bull market? how does it translate into your economics? joseph: you mentioned three people, one of them i definitely don't try to read. tom: what are you saying there, -- there? think what he would say about catherine man. joseph: never. she worked with mild cali, peter hooper. leaving that aside, on the equity side, what we have seen is a tremendous increase in profitability. that reflects the fact that while the u.s. does recover, so does the global economy. even with lockdowns in europe and the covid cases in south america, we have seen pmi's in brazil, in the u.k., germany, italy, france, they have all recovered, so it has been a huge global rebound. the s&p had significant exposure

to the global economy with the u.s. booming. it has been about earnings. going forward, you have to assume this performance from future activity, but there is no recession inside and i don't see one. even if the economy slows, rates stay low, reflation will moderate, and we will get positive equity returns. we have not seen the peak and stock market. i'm still an optimist. jon: final question for me, and i woke with there either, in terms of the cycle and as it starts to pick up, are you surprised it has not engineered a weaker dollar? joseph: a little bit. to me, there -- people have been short raised with curve steepeners on and they have been short dollar, so i think that is part of the reason the dollar hasn't weakened much. and because the u.s. has sort of come out of this pandemic quicker than many of the trading partners and other industrialized companies, it kept the dollar better than otherwise what it would be,

especially with a massive twin deficits, the budget and trade deficit. it is not totally surprise me. jon: it is good to see you. it's great to get a flavor of it from joseph lavorgna, the chief economist of the americas. tom: it is an optimism on capitalism, and we will see it within corporations that will adjust. when i see that's important is you see an economist, joseph lavorgna, and a market strategist like anthony dwyer, and their language is the same, where's the recession? where's the slowdown? we are hearing that from a lot of other people. i'm thrilled our team, what a great second kickoff with ed your denny. jon: looking forward to the conversation. that's the simple guy for many people. that she got is as follows, if you don't see a recession on the horizon, keep buying. lisa: and at what point does this create a problem? i know you will make fun of me

for being gloomy, it's fine, i'm ok with it, the question i have is, if we do not get growth exceeding 3%, how sustainable is the low -- that -- debt load we are putting on? tom: she will be gleaming out this weekend, and i may have a case of ppr. we will call it the pendulum of pvr. do know what pvr is -- pbr. we will call it the pendulum of pbr. do know that is? jon: it is a beer. [laughter] tom: we are going pabst blue ribbon. i don't care about tanglewood, pvr only -- pbr only. lisa: the pendulum of gloom and you will drink pbr only. jon: the gloom on the one side

and the i have no idea on the other side. we talk about the pandemic next with a bloomberg school of public health professor of epidemiology. record highs on the s&p 500 coming into thursday. i will have more on that. from new york city this morning, good morning. could be another beautiful one. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: that the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. for the first time, a multiyear investigation of donald trump's company resulted in criminal charges. a grand jury in manhattan indicted the trump organization and cfo. the cfo has worked with the family for more than 40 years and surrendered to authorities. neither the former president or his sons are expected to be charged. a federal judge blocked the new law penalizing social media companies barring political candidates. the law would take effect today

and was signed last month by ron desantis. the judge ruled the law violates the first amendment and is not apply to all social media providers equally. here in new york city, eric adams saw his lead over catherine grow more and it corrected vote count for the democratic primary for mayor after the botched release of ranked choice voting that plunged the count into chaos. the race will likely be decided of a count of 125,000 absentee ballots. elia management is stepping up the pressure. the firm called into question the leadership of the british drugmaker. they need to beef up their expertise and its top ranks before carrying out plans in q2. h&m returns a profit in the second quarter. sales rebounded as stores reopened and pandemic related

restrictions were eased. they said the third quarter started well and sales are almost back to pre-pandemic levels. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are sequencing the

variance to understand the prevalence. for now, extremely low. -- low of the delta variant but we will continue to sequence and ensure we know and can therefore respond. the best view we have at the moment is essentially to continue vaccinating. jon: that was the spanish foreign minister catching up with bloomberg's maria tadeo. good morning come alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. you're actually market is unchanged on the s&p 500. a huge roll over, gains over in europe, the stoxx 600 flat. we erased all of what we were up. yields unchanged, euro-dollar 118.56. euro is slightly weaker -- 1.1855. euro slightly weaker. there is crude. 74.93. up almost 2%. tom: 76 print exactly on brent

crude. we will watch that through the morning. lisa more on top of that store than i will ever be. amber desousa joins us from john hopkins. she is definitive in net cancer and also infectious disease, a terrific career in medical research. amber, when someone mentions the delta strain, he comes down to every conversation is the infectious reality. do you have an understanding of how communicable the delta variant is? >> i haven't seen data to tell us exactly what the reproductive rate is, which is how many people each infected person is running into, but we know that the proportions of people who are covered positive that have this variant is increasing rapidly, which tells us it is definitely more infectious than the other strains. tom: looking at the exponential realities bacteria and viruses,

where does delta fit in? is it a normal lung function, or is there something -- log function or is there something different to it? >> it is within the normal spectrum. this is what infectious diseases do. the more we allow an infectious disease to spread, we know it will mutate, and some of the mutations will be more transmissible. this is within the sphere of what we have been dealing with with the pandemic so far. if you imagine the strains we were dealing last year were infecting two to three people, this one instead is infecting four to seven people, each infected person, we don't know where we are there, it is slightly worse and makes our battle against this slightly harder. lisa: how much has the delta variant prolonged our fight to get the herd immunity? >> it really depends what happens in the next few weeks and months. in the u.s., the story is different than abroad. we are within grasp of herd

immunity. we have made real progress. people are continuing to get vaccinated every day, even though it is at a slowing rates. if we continue, i think we can reach herd immunity later this summer or fall in the u.s.. we are still on track, things are just load. it is possible -- just slowed. it is possible if the vaccination stalls that we won't reach herd immunity should -- immunity, and the other way is that the infection burns for our population and enough people get infected and get immunity that way. lisa: i think i might be slightly traumatized, hearing tom keene's voice and what you're saying "i don't know about herd immunity, what does this actually mean?" what are we talking about, doctor, given the fact that a lot of people think herd immunity is sort of fictitious in this environment? dr. d'souza: well, what we're talking about is preventing people from getting sick. there are two ways to do that. the idea of herd immunity is, if

most of the people get vaccinated and are not transmitting the infection because they are protected, the other people who are not protected are not going to get it just by chance, because it will not be spread to them. they remain susceptible, but if we get to high rates of vaccination, say 75 cent-80%, -- 75%-80%, then the people on will not get exposed. that's the idea of herd immunity. but if they are exposed, they remain susceptible. so vaccination is the way to be safest. those vaccinated remain protected, including against these variants. data has shown the vaccines are working against the delta variant. jon: what's the ultimate goal here, to protect everyone or treat this like the seasonal flu? was the objective? dr. d'souza: we don't have to get 100%, but the goal is, in my view, to protect life and not just from death but from all of the side effects that illness

can cause. to do that, we have to get the bulk of people protected. we have made tremendous progress over the next two months, but we're not there yet. we could still have additional waves of infection at our current vaccination rates. they will not be nationwide and will not be as bad as what we saw before. we do have high vaccine uptake among oldest individuals -- our oldest individuals. we know we will not experience what we experienced last year, but we could have waves were only half people are vaccinated and they could have huge surges. the hospitals will not be overwhelmed, but there could be quite a few people getting sick and dying in the states where vaccinations are too low. jon: i don't understand why people don't ask these questions , because sometimes asking these questions are not very nice but that is part of the job. i don't member that being the objective 12 months ago. we live in a country in america where you have the luxury of getting a vaccine if you want one. so why does the rest of the country need to worry about the few that are deciding i'm not

interested, i don't want one? dr. d'souza: interesting question. [laughter] so my answer to your question is that i'm concerned about everybody's health and the public, but you're right, once your vaccinated you protected and can travel on a plane, can be unmasked in most areas according to our laws. why do you need to worry about everybody else? it affects our economy, health costs. what happens to other people does affect us. it is a personal health decision, whether or not to get vaccinated. i believe there are lots of people who have not gotten vaccinated, not because they are against the vaccine but because it needs to be easily accessible, there needs to be an incentive or reason for them to get vaccinated, and we can still reach those people and get them vaccinated. other people who feel strongly that they do not get vaccinated, there are people that have the view and will choose not to get vaccinated. we will see how many.

jon: doctor, appreciate your time. dr. amber d'souza, the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health professor of epidemiology. w ci, a 75 handle for the first time since october 2018. here is the price action on crude. up a little more by 2% on crude. we advanced one dollar 50 to 74.98, and we did break the line in the sand briefly, 75, for the first time since 2018. tom: wti close to the 76 level. that's one indication of inflation. i'm watching dxy at the same time for a dollar break out. we have had that in the last when he for hours. maybe we get it again with the x 92.44. jon: this is after a move in 2021. lisa: it comes on the heels of news that saudi arabia and russia reached a deal on production.

let's apply to potentially be brought back online. jon: usually that follows my something important. tom: we need to inform mr. farrow the availability of the 1776 active pvr. you get the link into 1776? jon: thank you, tom. lovely. ♪ ly. ♪

>> as this global recovery is unfolding, investors need to think more global in their portfolios. >> there is more momentum that is good to spread out. >> you may start to see some deflationary forces work their way in the system. >> the fed needs to think about the risk of higher inflation. >> the pressure will grow to announced qe tapering. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, good morning. is bloomberg "surveillance" live. equity futures 4287 on the s&p 500. tom keene, coming into thursday, five months of gains. tom: