>> even if the economy slows, rates stay low, inflation will moderate and we will get activity return. >> we think any pullbacks or pauses in the market could be short-lived. >> as this global recovery is unfolding, investors need to think more global in their portfolios. >> the pressure will grow on the fed to announce qe tapering. >> there is no doubt that the markets are prepared for that. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance."

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. july 1, it is the beginning of the second half of 2021. jonathan ferro, we are in a great bull market. jonathan: we are slab bank on the median forecast. we have had some huge gains today, plus 14% on the s&p. for some people, this is where it ends. not for everyone, though. credit suisse is out there at -- tom: they're going to recalibrate after earnings up or down. jonathan: we are all bond market strategists. can you tell me where the 10 year yield is and i will tell you what sector to sit in. tom: lisa, that is what it is about. even equity -- the equities team follow bonds and bond vigilantes.

lisa: but they follow data that is inconclusive at this point. we are going to learn about inflation in the next cupping months -- next couple months. -- that is some of the turbulence there forecasting. tom: liz ann sonders was with us and edward yardeni in a moment. we hook up with edward yardeni by wires and the screen turns green. it is amazing. we have the nasdaq finally green on the screen. he moves the markets just by showing up and doing a sound check. jonathan: of 2/10 on the s&p. the nasdaq unchanged. yields up a single basis point. we have to keep going back to it. and i slipped in crude this morning, 75.6 1 -- $75.61. tom: brent crude up 2.4%.

we have gone beyond that with some people framing out $100 per barrel. it was one of the tennis -- the toughest acts to lyme economics. this was a million years ago. the guy that replaced him was the same or even better. edward yardeni out of yale brought a huge acuity of linking economics to the markets at cj lawrence and onto a storied career. he joins us this morning, moving the markets green by just showing up. what is the character of this bull market? edward: it has been very broad-based. every now and then people freak out because it looks like it is narrow. . we find that the groups that lead the market started to lag and the laggards can't jump.

we saw the earlier this year with the nasdaq edit 10% creation in the market help us pretty well. value beach growth starting september of last year. you had this constant rapid rotation going on. the market keeps moving higher then you recognize. jonathan: we saw a correction last month. we sawtek outperform the banks -- we saw tech outperform the banks. this is your world, let's go there. the bond market, what does it tell me anymore? edward: i think one of the reasons it is hard to get a significant correction in the stock market is there are $5 trillion more now than there was just before the pandemic. there is a tremendous amount of liquidity. wherever bond yields go up, i get a call from someone in the

fed asking if it is the bond vigilantes coming back. i coined that back in 1983. during the 1990's and 2000's, they were nowhere to be seen because inflation kept coming down. suddenly they came back late last year to early this year and now they seem to be taking a siesta again. it is hard to talk about it bond market. markets are free, this is not a free bond market. this is one where the federal reserve is reading the market on a daily basis with its purchasing. jonathan: at 4:30 eastern, lisa will be visiting the federal reserve. $8.1 trillion. how powerful is that balance sheets going to be through the whole of the cycle? 82 then dollars to $9 trillion? edward: one trillion here is one trillion there. we have not even talked about the ecb and the boj which have

been doing quantitative easing. we have a tremendous increase in the balance sheets of the central banks. their fingerprints are all over the global economy and financial markets. it is a huge amount of money and they continue to accumulate these assets. i think we are heading toward an environment where they have to consider tapering. housing, we have a bruising coming market -- booming housing market. why are they supporting mortgage backed securities? when they talk about tapering, they say it creates market stability. they have been successful at pegging the bond yields and making it go higher. if it was not for them, the bond yield would be at 2% today. it will get there by the end of the year. lisa: tapering, even at the beginning of the hundreds of billions of dollars in securities. think it could send the two year yield -- 10 to 2%? edward: yes i do.

what the market starts to get a schedule from the fed, i think they will discuss it at the meeting in july and september they will mentor. the economy is booming, inflationary pressures have been intense. some of them are base effect, some are a little more permanent. i think tapering is coming. then the market will look at its schedule and say once they are done tapering, which could be the first half of next year, they will start raising interest rates. that keeps drifting towards increasing interest rates in 2022 instead of 2023. it is coming and i think the bond market will be freer to express an opinion on the fact that the economy is strong and inflation is over 2%. lisa: this idea that treasury yields will rise when the fed decides to buy fewer of those securities each month. when it took a more hawkish tone

earlier this month, a long and went down. he saw yields drop, price higher. how do you extrapolate that forward at the market response to potential tapering? edward: it is hard to psychoanalyze the bond market when a psychiatrist is -- i don't know if i like this analysis -- this analogy. the fed keeps buying a mortgage backed securities. i think that is why we have been holding around 1.5% on the bond market. they have already started to hit that they're going to taper. they are not backing a corporate bond market. there backing off on that. the increased rates in the short end of the market because you can't really have negative interest rates. that put the money market funds out of business. i think they are already moving in that direction. i think the bond markets reflect that. the yield curve is behaving

normally if you look at over the past year or so. it has been steepening and it continues to steepen. usually it is steepest that the point of 300 basis points. we are only halfway there. lisa: you think stocks will continue ravening even as the fed eases the pedal from monthly bond purchases? edward: i do. as the fed becomes less stimulant, there is still a lot of stimulus in liquid accidents -- the good assets -- liquid assets. if you look at him to divided by gdp, that is the flipside of velocity. if you look at into -- m2 divided by velocity, there is a tremendous amount of liquidity that can go to the economy or financial markets or real estate or all of the above. jonathan: did you think we would

be in a world where unemployment has a five handle? did you ever envision that kind of world? edward: it is hard to imagine a world like that without the fed being so interventionist in the bond market. there are various relationships, like the gold ratio and the bond yield which has worked well in the past. that relationship says the bond yield should be closer to 2.5 percent then to 1.5%. the relationship has not worked because of all of that intervention. i think these things don't stay out of kilter for very long and the convergences will converge and bond yields will go higher. jonathan: it is good to hear from you. edward yardeni there. tomorrow, unemployment. the previous month is 5.8%. the 10 year yield is a sub 150. tom: the revisions will be

important. lisa showed the claims chart. that is the most elegant truck out there. i know it is removed from jobs, but the claims is an inertial force to a more employed economy. jonathan: we are moving in the right direction? lisa: yeah, but the claims will be highly political. people are digging into states that have ended unemployment benefits and see how much more the unemployment rate went down, how much humor that how much your claims they filed -- how much fewer claims they filed. it is very political. jonathan: it will not last long, though? july to september, we are done. lisa: a lot of people say this is what gay people the savings that can turbocharge the economy. tom: 8 -- jonathan: 888,000 is the

estimate. they come in later this morning. good morning, heard on radio and seen on tv for our audience worldwide. your equity markets at all-time highs. we are up by a little bit more of than 1/10 of 1% on s&p 500. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: the trump organization's cfo has surrendered to authorities in new york. he faces tax related charges, so does the company itself. it is the most direct attack on donald trump and is -- and his company to emerge from a criminal investigation by the manhattan district attorney. saudi arabia and russia have a tentative agreement. negotiations over the details are still underway. the debate between opec and its allies have big applications for

its -- demand has outpaced supplies after last year's deep cut. tomorrow's drop report will show if employers have success, showing a record number of vacancies. the last few months of hiring have been seen as disappointing according to a bloomberg survey. payrolls rose by 711,000 in june. the forecasts were well above the actual figure the past few months. china's president sounded a defiant tone during a celebration for the 100 year anniversary of china's communist party. robinhood reportedly plans to set aside as much as 35% of its shares and at your for individual investors. the dow jones says its stock trading app once people to buy shares on its new ipo platform.

retail investors are largely shut out of ipo. "bloomberg wall street week -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the way this shock has

transmitted itself throughout the economy has been unequaled. prices are equal and if wages are rising then the wage increases not translate into buying power. the recovery has been faster than people thought it would be. jonathan: andrew hair -- andrew there. good, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowitz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are 12 minutes away from jobless claims and america. on the s&p, up a little more than 1/10 of 1%. five months of gains coming into thursday. in the fx market, euro-dollar, 1.18. your 10-year is 14696. just a final word on crude, 75.53 -- on crude, $75.53. tom: will watch that closely throughout the morning. especially on "the open" with

jonathan ferro. continue to look for jonathan ferro on "real yield" this afternoon. jonathan: it is tomorrow. tom: there's something about the clarity in center street in lower manhattan. if you're lucky, you go into a one which has better air-conditioning than ar two or ar three. those are the arraignment rooms at center street. tina davis is your to give us coverture, our legal executive. what is the emotion when you go in there? this ago in there with handcuffs on? tina: its own like you have been arraigned yourself. >> how did you know that? you read in on this. tina: often indicted, never charged.

he surrendered to authorities, there was no handcuffing him at home. prosecutors like to wake you up early in the morning within not on the door. that did not happen in this case as is more common in white-collar crimes. he arranged in a arraignment with his attorneys. actually through a freight entrance. there are photographers and cameras set up outside this building and almost everyone missed it. tom: what is the emotion that changes when your name is in the caption or your name is on the little door outside in front or you are in the side room with your lawyer's going okay we are here. what changes for him today emotionally? tina: it is the state of new york versus allen weisselberg. this is very personal and he will be able to see the full indictment against him which gets unsealed this afternoon. he will see the number of charges.

what we are waiting to see is what is going to be charged with. we have sourcing that indicates some of the fringe benefits he received that were not properly taxed or paid for. what we're talking about is a multi-count indictment and then he will get a sense of what the penalty is. lisa: a mood is that allen weisselberg is not the main target, it is former president trump and that this is a way to get to former president trump. is that what you are hearing? tina: absolutely. this guy worked for the trump organization for four decades, more than half of his life. he is the cfo. as we have seen from other places, he knows where every penny goes in and out of that building. if you are bringing indictment against him, it is interesting they are bringing an indictment against the company itself. if you are bringing an indictment, you're hoping this will pressure him to start cooperating with the

prosecution. lisa: former president trump has said this is politically motivated. how political is the d.a.'s office that is prosecuting this case? can you paint a picture of the objectivity or subjectivity here? tina: the manhattan district attorney is a democrat, as you would expect. is also not running for reelection so this is the end of his term. in terms of what this means for him politically, there is no next job or he is not doing this to seek favor with electors. we have seen people vying to replace him make statements to the extent that they would continue this prosecution and go after donald trump. this is a democratic city, this is a city that has been hostile to donald trump and his policies. you can't discount that emotional arena. lisa: can you give a sense of the scale of the situation allen

weisselberg is an in terms of the penalty, times -- time served, and how severe what he is allegedly supposed to have committed actually is? tina: i would love to do that but the problem is we have not seen the indictment. until we have a sense of the charges, we cannot speculate on what time is involved. what we're hearing is that this involves fringe benefits. that does not seem like something that would -- that you would normally throw someone away in prison for a long time for. tom: what is the distinction between the new york versus federal court process here for the trump organization? tina: there are a few differences in the way things are carried out. in new york, there is a lot having to do with corporations. they can be subject to enterprise corruption which is the state version of a rico law.

yet different parameters -- you have different parameters and levels you have to hit in order to qualify. there are different laws in play here. it is all based on new york's specific law which is interested in corporate malfeasance. jonathan: tina davis of bloomberg, thank you so much. we need to reset for claims in about six minutes. 388 is the estimate and that would be lower from the previous week of 411. tom: it is a trend. it is the most elegant chart. it has a persistence to good news. i think the point of experts like mike mckee, claims is not jobs. they are two different entities. jonathan: friday, the estimate is 711. lisa: yet is how much can we get behind a pace of hires and the

people entering the unemployed ranks. continuing claims is what i'm going to keep my eyes on. it is expected to be going down at a slow pace. why are there so may people on unemployment rolls if there are so many job openings? jonathan: who knows. there is a spread between the high and low estimate, the payrolls going into tomorrow. it is still wide. tom: there is a heated debate out there. it is amazing, on new york and california, the delta in the restaurant and hospitality area. there are some regional differences and state-by-state differences. jonathan: this should be difficult to read over the past few months. we build don't have results for some of these issues. lisa: and we have not resolved childcare. if kids are not away in summer programs, to.

jonathan: that is why people keep mentioning september as an month to really focus on the labor market. from new york city, good morning. equity futures, 4295. the jobless claims report is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city on radio and tv alongside tom keene lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. pretty futures advancing .1% on the s&p. 4293. yields unchanged. with your data, here is mike mckee. michael: a downward surprise, better-than-expected jobless claims numbers. 364,000. that is a decrease of 51,000 from the previous week's revised levels of 415,000. it is much lower than the 388,000 that was forecast. what we also are looking at is continuing claims because we want to know how soon people are

coming off these roles. 3,469,000, that is higher. that number is delayed by a week. it is not as good news on an ongoing basis. we do see progress being made. jonathan: s&p 500 futures up for present, advancing .1%. yields where we were. 1.47 on the 10 year. is there any read on this from claims of last couple of weeks going into payrolls tomorrow? michael: not a lot. these are people not working who are getting claims who are no longer getting claims it could be working. it does not tell us necessarily they did get jobs. that is the dichotomy between the number of those who are looking for work and those who are offering work. we will have to wait until

tomorrow to see what progress has been made. tom: i went to a fancy chart. convexity. it reaffirms more elegant this morning. we are headed towards fully employed america. you have an important map in mississippi and beyond the missouri river of the states that have said we will not play with washington's game. michael: one of the big issues is have people not been going back to work because they can get unemployment benefits? a number of states cutting them off early. in terms of initial claims, alaska, one of the first down by 17,000, iowa up 189,000. maybe it does not hold through there. mississippi and missouri both cut off a couple of weeks ago in mississippi is down 302,000. that is a lot. i do not have the exact percentage calculation, but it does tell you we are seeing a

big drop in initial claims. then when you look at the total claims for those states, alaska down 753,000. iowa is down 2 million and 3000. we are seeing a lot of drops -- alaska is down 753. we are looking at significant drops in the states that did cut off benefits. that just tells you they did cut off benefits. did those people get incentives to get jobs? lisa: one thing you're pointing to is dispersion in the recovery. how different different states art with respect to how high the unemployment rates are. what are you seeing in terms of the tale of two sides of the united states? michael: it does not appear there is a significant difference geographically in

terms of the number of people who have lost jobs recently. california, which is still paying generous benefits, sees almost 7000 jobless claims fewer than the week before. that does not tell us most people are going out and getting jobs. that will be the hard thing to parse out. we do not get the data on state-by-state employment tales later in the month. tom: are you with us tomorrow? michael: would not miss us. tom: the red sox are in first place. michael: and they have increased their lead. tom: i thought maybe you were taking another red sox games. jonathan: this is good. tom: this is important. jonathan: it is good to have mike with us tomorrow. tom: constance hunter is going what are they talking about? she is with kpmg. constance: i am a yankees fan.

tom: constance, we cannot talk yankees/red sox right now but we can talk claims to jobs. does this claims number adjust jobs outlook tomorrow? constance: not really. i want to say with regard to the state cap, what we have in our latest chart is that same map overlaid with the vaccination rate. we think this is a big thing that is keeping people on those continuing claims. when thinking about the impact of the cut off of pandemic unemployment insurance supplemental dollars in certain states, we need to look at the continuing claims and we need to look at what is going on with vaccination rates in those states. we still have over 40% of working age adults have not received even one vaccine. we think this, combined with childcare, are the things that are really holding back people

going back to the labor force. jonathan: is this why people keep bringing up september? the date in the diary that some of these issues might get resolved or begin to resolve? constance: if we go back to 100% in persons for, and we are barking -- we are working on vaccinating young people, so those odds keep going up and we keep getting the vaccines distributed. i should point out for young children not yet in school, we have 8.5 fewer daycare workers than prior to the pandemic. daycare, if you have young children come is very difficult to find. it solves the problem for everybody who has school-aged children. it does not solve the problem for young children. jonathan: let's build on this -- lisa: let's build on this, specifically the argument whether to end the advanced unemployment benefits earlier will stop are there any detrimental effects to ending them now based on what you are saying? constance: if you believe the

supplemental uninsurance has limited economic scarring, and data suggests it has. personal bankruptcies are down, delinquency rates are down, savings up, so we know households balance sheets have benefited, and that should limit the economic scarring. people will be in a better position to consume. that will help the recovery. i do think we are far enough along that a lot of the scarring should begin to dissipate as the economy continues to reopen, as people continue to get vaccinated. all of these sorts of things, there is good momentum. what we do not know is how much this is related to vaccination rates, and we would look internationally. you see the same phenomenon globally, especially in developed economies. leisure and hospitality workers considering, is this a field i want to be in, other other

options i should be doing? if we look at previous pandemic back 100 years, we observe something interesting when we compare wars and pandemics. both have loss-of-life's, -- both have loss-of-life, but in a pandemic there is an increase in real wages and it seems like there is hesitancy to go back to in person work after a pandemic. you see in the jobs data, all this turn. -- all of this churn. tom: wages up. morgan stanley emphasizes that. i also have inflation up. right now i've aim massive negative real wage growth -- right now i have a massive negative real wage growth. do i get to a positive? constance: i think this time next year we do. we are looking at 2.3% inflation this time next year, but still expecting healthy inflation.

that said we are also looking for growth rate close to 5%. when you combine these things i think we will see real wage growth. the question is which segment of the labor market. right now we are seeing wage growth in the segment of the labor market that has to work from the job site. that unemployment rate is 6.5%. the increased demand for wages, the reservation wage, the wage at which people are willing to work has gone up for people without a bachelors degree. that is a lot of the people that have to work at their job site. for those people who can work from home, the unemployment rate is 2.7%. can you imagine this will be a recovery that is five years, i would see if you look a year or two out, it is the 40% of people with bachelors degrees that can work from home they're already in a tight labor market where you will see the bulk of the wage inflation throughout the cycle. jonathan: an interesting final

point. constance hunter. tom: should we do the show from home? jonathan: we did that for about four months. tom: it did not work out well. let's recapitulate midyear. thanks to our technical team who jumped through massive hoops to get that done and get us back. jonathan: that was a tough time. lisa: i want to offer thanks to my two boys who sat on the couch eating breakfast while i was broadcasting, just to give you a sense of the childcare and working from home situation. tom: i would also like to thank them. jonathan: oscar speech. tom: would you like to thank? jonathan: i would like to thank my mom, my family. equity futures 4294. up six on the s&p. up a little more than .1%. this board with the markets,

that is my crotch. 1.40 -- that is my crutch. lisa: you go to markets when things get awkward. jonathan: what you think of that september issue? lisa: i think it is a real one, especially for people that have kids. it is difficult, especially when they are not doing anything. jonathan: are they still just sitting at home? for our audience worldwide, this is the most important question of the day. the abramowitz boys wanted money so they could start trading. did they get that for this summer? lisa: jonathan ferro was lobbying. i have not gotten it to them yet. at some point, perhaps. i am a little nervous. jonathan: let them understand

the lesson of losing money. lisa: it is my money. jonathan: a little bit. you can set limits on what they news. lisa: we can take this off-line. jonathan: annmarie hordern emails in. she says "yankeeeeeeeees." this whole show has been value add. laura kane will be weighing in later. for our audience worldwide, this was special. thanks, tom. why do we always do this? why do we do this? i understand where things are in america. this is bloomberg. [laughter] ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. for the first time a multiyear investigation of donald trump's company has resulted in criminal charges. this morning in new york the

trump organization long time cfo allen weisselberg surrendered to authorities in the company faces tax related charges. nine to the former president nor his staff are expected to be charged. a federal judge has blocked florida's new law penalizing social media companies from barring political candidates. the law was supposed to take effect today. the judge ruled the law violates the first amendment and does not apply to all social media providers equally. -- will build a $1.4 million hub in the u.k. the japanese automaker will produce a new crossover vehicle in its factory in northern england. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are not yet at dangerous levels.

the u.s. economy can absorb high wage growth without creating higher inflation. what i'm going to be looking at is inflation expectations. from the business side, they are the one setting prices. you see it creep up in those inflation expectations. tom: thomas costerg on the economy. we have important interviews. these abramowitz with tom keene as jonathan ferro waltzes off to the 9:00 hour. an important hour. the chief financial officer of trump administration -- of the trump organization said to go through some arraignment. in midtown, with the reaffirmation of all that dana telsey believes. dana telsey is definitive in fashion and the study of what we buy every day. it was marc jacobs at the public

library, and as said in the new york times, there were hugs and kisses. what is the symbolism of new york's finest doing a show in the heat of new york city summer? dana: it is about the reopening and the recovery that is just beginning. the fact that vaccinations have been given, that there is more to go, that there is a safe way for people to socialize and gather. it has been over a year. it is a time of supercharged change. tom: and reported washington for bloomberg news was killing it this morning, wearing mark jacobs in pink. lady gaga says pink is the summer color. will we refill our closets with pink? dana: we are already refilling our closets. everybody wants optimism.

people can be together again. i think these trends, they will continue. consumers have money in their pockets and we will have a super holiday season if companies can only get the inventory. we are seeing so much change, we are seeing companies look for ways to better serve the consumer in all different areas. lisa: where do you find out style trends? tom: where do i find them out? i read dana telsey. lisa: i do not see any pink discussion in her note. tom: lady gaga is all over this. lisa: moving forward, aside from the pink call, you talk about how consumers are dealing with their orders in a different way, the online world, what are you expecting in the second half of the year in terms of the distribution between e-commerce and brick-and-mortar as more

people get vaccinated. dana: what we are seeing is even though stores are reopening, online sales remain solid. i think if anything the supercharge change that has gone on, i think the covid crisis created innovation. semi things would have taken three to five years to achieve -- so many things would've taken three to five years to achieve. we are seeing acceleration of new business possibilities. stores may not get the same traffic, but you're getting more customization, consumers are converting. we are seeing every category being disrupted by change. it is like a seachange every 10 years. what used to be the category killers of the 1980's and 1990's are now the disruptors. so many of these companies are still private.

lisa: how much pricing power to these consumer facing companies have given the fact we are seeing input costs rise to the degree they are? dana: i think inventory levels arlene. supply chains are disrupted. we are seeing better margins than we have seen in years. we will continue to see solid margins. are we going to get back to promotions? i think we will. you will not get normalized inventories until the end of the year and into 2022. tom: where is value in luxury? if someone wants to buy the usual names, lvmh, gucci, is there any value there or are they priced to perfection? dana: i think there is still more value. i do not think you can look at history before 2019. i think we have to go forward.

i think the engagement of consumers, the chinese are staying in china, when core is him -- when tourism comes back it will accelerate the rest of the world. look how chanel raise their prices. tom: thanks for bringing up a sore point. joe feldman crushes it on amazon. link your world to joe feldman's world. his amazon out front in fashion or is jeff bezos going down in flames? dana: i think amazon can be, for essentials, and your searing other types of companies be -- and you are seeing other types of companies be singular in nature. category killers will be able to resonate against amazon. you are seeing vintage in all different categories very relevant. tom: thanks a much.

dana telsey, thank you so much. i am sorry. i think chanel and a fashion manifesto, i can see you manifesting should now this fall -- manifesting chanel this fall. lisa: we have discussed fashion many times. do you think about time would work? tom: -- do you think a bow tie would work? tom: we have to talk to the higher ups a full should now look. lisa: i want to underscore something michael was talking about. talking about which states saw the biggest declines in unemployment filings in which saw increases. it is interesting indiana reported an increase because that is one of the states that ended the pandemic on this

incident -- the pandemic unemployment assistance early, the idea there is not a correlation. initial claims in pennsylvania, kentucky, california, posted the largest declines. massachusetts and indiana posted increases. tom: there is also the big picture as well. if you say 7.6 million jobs need to be filled, or the economic policy institute saying 10 million or 11 million, it is a month by month film -- it is a month by month thing. we are focused on tomorrow. it is six job reports in a row? lisa: if you cannot bring people in to staff your store that constrains your potential growth at a time when people are pouring back in. at the same time, smaller businesses are complaining they cannot make money. tom: i do not know what else to say. it has been a decade. rage the wage -- raise the wage.

is that scientific? tom: nasdaq is the other way, stay with us on radio and television. good morning. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city, good morning, good morning. five days of gains, five months

of gains, five quarters of gains. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. kicking off q3. >> data sensitivity is going up. >> this is big data, peak inflation. >> real rates are moving up for good reason. >> what is difference for how you invest in u.s. equities? >> there is a labor shortage. >> strong payrolls. >> ultimately whether it is 2022

or 2023.