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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  July 2, 2021 1:30pm-2:01pm EDT

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at the side of the partially collapsed condo building in surfside, bringing the total number of victims to 20. the collapse happened on june 24. dozens remain unaccounted for. the labor department says employers added 850,000 jobs last month. the president today celebrated the gains. president biden: 600,000 jobs per month, we have now created over 3 million jobs since we took office, more than have ever been created in the first five months of any presidency in modern history, thanks to the work of the entire team. this is a start progress, pulling our economy out of the worst crisis in 100 years. mark: the president says the progress is the result of the american rescue plan. manhattan apartment sales had their highest annual jump in more than 30 years. a report from douglas own real
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estate shows that opportunity seekers are finding bargains in manhattan while recovering from the pandemic. in the second quarter, transactions surged 152% from a year earlier. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome to "bloomberg markets." matt: we welcome our bloomberg audiences each day at this hour. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. u.s. job growth accelerates. we will break down the payrolls report with constance hunter,
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chief economist at kpmg llp. hospitality leads job gains. we talk about the health of restaurants with ivy mix. and we are going to get a sneak preview of our fourth of july boston pops spectacular, as we go to tanglewood in lenox, massachusetts. amber: ok, first let's get caught up on the market action. closing at all-time highs if we finish at these levels, the s&p, nasdaq and even the dow along for the ride. and we are back to our old habit, which is the growth stocks, tech stocks leading. it's interesting to see tesla on the leaderboard. they put out record delivery for the most recent quarter, but it came in shy of expectations. and nervousness at ibm. they have executive changes
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there, the first under the new ceo that sees the departure of the man who under saw the integration of ibm and red hat, the biggest acquisition that ibm has ever done. so this is down by 4%. but, matt, enthusiasm as the u.s. economy is turning out the most number of jobs we have seen since august of last year. matt: absolutely. an add of 850,000, and we may continue to see those kinds of gains for the next few months. many economists have said that the second half is going to be where it all comes back. i want to get into contracts for houses. in canada, you have also had a red-hot real estate market. i've been looking around suburban new york city for a home.
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maybe the frenzied pace has calmed down a little bit from the height of the pandemic. manhattan apartment sales had their biggest gain a record. a comment from jonathan miller, who said, basically people get tired of losing their fifth bidding war for a place in westchester or on long island, and they just have given up and they have decided to go on vacation instead. so i hope by the time my wife allows me to move back to the u.s., the prices come down as well. amber: i in no that tenacity -- know that tenacity will work out for you. i would recommend toronto, but i think it is actually easier for you to purchase a house in west hollywood these days. so, maybe you will find that bargain somewhere in the u.s. after all. matt: it could be a long
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commute. i could end up in west stockbridge if i am not careful. on the u.s. jobs report, constance hunter is joining us, chief economist at kpmg llp. talk about what you saw in terms of the add and the breakdown, what does it tell us about future growth? constance: a few things. we added over 850,000 jobs, a lot in leisure and hospitality, which is an important barometer. but there were other details that were interesting. one thing they have been doing is asking what percent of people are working from home due to the pandemic? at the peak it was 35%, now down to 14.4%. we expect it to move substantially in september, when kids go back to school full-time. and that means central business
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districts will come back to life, leisure and hospitality and retail in central business districts will come back to life, and is suggests we are on a trajectory towards a more normal economy and a pre-pandemic type of economy. amber: it also suggests the softer than expected job growth we have seen in the previous months that many chalked up to labor shortages, that we are working our way through that. would you read that as a positive? constance: there are a couple factors contributing to that. we saw an increase of daycare workers, now people can find childcare. the other thing that is important is the percent of working adults that have not had even one vaccine is now below 40%. that number has been dropping significantly in the next several months and it needs to
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drop further. being vaccinated is a key part of going back to an in person job and feeling comfortable doing that. matt: i want to get your take on rates. you have made some great calls in your career, you called the dot com bubble, the financial crisis and the housing market recovery and low rate situation we saw after that. we're back to low rates right now, but in a different kind of situation because we are worried about inflation, the fed is turning hawkish, and the housing market is off the hook. why are we seeing 1.43 on the 10 year yield and where is it going to go? constance: i have to confess i thought it would be higher by this point, but i did not know that the feds would move their dots so quickly. we anticipated they would have to raise rates somewhere in the
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first half of 2023, but it looks like they are moving to the second half of 2023, making the bond market more comfortable that they will end up being hawkish on rates. but i also think we are in a position where we will have a different kind of growth environment than we had during the global financial crisis. we have a lot of data that suggests we could have stronger growth, stronger productivity growth, an increase in wages that fuels consumption and investment in productivity. and so i do think that there is some scope for us to have higher bond yields from a justified position, not from a position that hampers growth and the ability to grow. but we will not know that for a couple more years. right now the bond market is saying, the fed is serious. they will try to get as much growth as they can with low
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rates, but they will not tolerate anything like the inflation we saw in the 1970's, which i think is the scare out there. the bond market is realizing this is a y axis problem. and we had this problem throughout the pandemic. we have seen that in houses. that will settle down. we have seen that in wages for certain jobs. that will settle down as kids go back to school. so i think the bond market is looking through this and realizing that the fed is going to act when it needs to. matt: i was listening to frances on bloomberg tv would jonathan ferro a couple minutes ago, saying that we will see -- and david rosenberg has said this before -- we'll see a massive drop off in the federal spending, this stimulus. we're not sure if they will make changes to that in 2022, but as
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it stands now it is the elephant in the room. do we get to a point where the fed is not able to really take off again or come in for a landing, depending on how you see it, because we get a huge drop-off and it hits growth? constance: i think it will be counterbalanced by higher wages and savings that will trickle out in consumption. but it is a reason to not be worried about runaway inflation. even if we get an infrastructure package, that spending will take time to work its way into the economy, so that is unlikely to be inflationary. yes, this is an important point, the fiscal spending is about to drop off. we expected to be made up largely by outward spending. but we also expect a slower growth rate next year. we will be closer to 3% in 2022. amber: i want to ask a big
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picture question. this morning i was talking to a trucking executive who lamented about the inability to find workers, despite the fact that a starting salary is $100,000 and they are paying warehouse workers between $20 and $25. he said the nature of the labor market has changed with the rise of the gig economy, and he even talked about daytrading, and the incentive not to go back to traditional jobs the way it was five or 10 years before the pandemic. how are you tracking those structural changes in the workforce as we try to understand what is happening month-to-month? constance: with regard to trucking in particular, the bureau of labor statistics does analysis of jobs, job scarcity and labor scarcity. prior to the pandemic, starting
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in 2015, they flagged the trucking industry, that has a lethal combination of an aging workforce on the verge of retiring out, and a lack of young people being interested in doing that profession. it the pandemic came along and maybe expedited some of that change, but it was there prior to the pandemic. with regard to trucking, this is it something that was well known for a long time. and it was likely that wages were going up prior to the pandemic, and they will have to go up more because it is not a job that people are necessarily attracted to doing at this wage level. and we see a number of jobs experiencing this. the leisure and hospitality sector is a sector where people have reevaluated if that is a sector that they want to work in. some people may not have a
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choice, but for those with a choice people are trying to get other jobs that have more stable hours and health care. matt: we will talk about that with ivy mix. it's always a pleasure to have you on. that is constance hunter. coming up, we will discuss the state of the restaurant industry with ivy mix, a restaurant owner. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: the restaurant industry still has 1.2 million without jobs from pre-pandemic levels, as hundreds of thousands of restaurants are still seeking
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aid from washington. it could soon come. joining us is ivy mix. you know her as the owner of the brooklyn-based restaurant leyenda. she is also a member of the independent restaurant coalition advisory board. you are looking at a package for restaurant workers, or owners, that will get workers back. tell us about it. ivy: we are trying to refill the restaurant revitalization fund that has helped only one third of the businesses that have applied for help. i was one of the lucky restaurants that did get funding, and with it we were able to bring back employees. it is unfortunate, looking around, trying to stress to congress that we are really trying to bring back employees, but we are suffering from 16 months of no business or very
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little business. i think the impression is if you look around the neighborhoods, you are like, that restaurant is so busy i cannot even get in because people are itching to get back to normal life, but a busy night when you do not have the money to hire employees is tricky. we are still 1.2 million people below the pre-pandemic levels, and in order to get them back we need funding to give to the bars and restaurants to get more staff. matt: that is something that you are working on. amber: it is not just the staffing either. ivy: it is not. matt: and you also got the problems that people are still to some extent afraid of covid, right? and a lot of working parents will find it difficult to come back, because kids are at home all the time. and the unemployment benefits
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make it easier to resist certain wages. and you find it as restaurant owners harder to pay higher wages, right? ivy: we are a tip economy, at least for the front of house. but also, the unemployment assistance is going to be ending soon. and people will have to realize and figure out ways to bring back staff. and the tricky part is is to be able to have the money to do it. in the last 16 months, rent has been the same, utilities have been the same, but with zero money coming in. i do not have a surplus to pay my staff or hire new staff. training is expensive. in the restaurant industry it is exceptionally expensive. and the last thing you want is
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turnover. yes, i heard before that this is about more than just staffing, but right now, especially with the jobs report out, it is important to stress how important it is to everyone that we need to refill this to make restaurants whole from the last 16 months of being negative, negative, negative, so businesses can restart again and people can be employed again. amber: one of the other constraints in the industry is other costs are going up, sourcing costs for food is going up. i spoke with a wedding venue operator who said i am having conversations with my head chef about i cannot find oysters, lamb, and get everything ready. what kind of food price increases are you seeing? ivy: it is the same.
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take a look at the construction industry, the price of a two by four is far more absorbent than it was before. repairs are expensive. in food, everything is more expensive because it is difficult to cross borders right now and are so much of our produce comes from different parts of the country. i own a bar and we go through many cases of limes. limes are much more expensive than they were. so we are in a position to charge more. charge more for something that has avocados, because we need to make sure that our clientele is not like, why is this a much more expensive? we need to be able to pad our bottom line so we are not going out of business. matt: and we have no pad. amber: and i know that people are mortgaging their house for
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avocado toast. ivy: exactly. it is in short supply. [laughter] amber: we will have to leave it there, but great insight. we appreciate your time. that is ivy mix. we'll take a quick break. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> felt like we should step up because the urgency of the crisis demanded it. matt: this is "bloomberg markets." now, the boston pops july for spectacular is taking place this weekend and joining us from tanglewood is bloomberg's alix steel. i've been nursing heartbreak over the last few weeks because
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i was not invited back to the boston pops. but lord tennyson says it's better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all. i'm excited for you. what is it like in tanglewood? alix: we miss you. including the phrase, where is matt? it is different, but just as wonderful. the fireworks will happen in boston, but because of covid restrictions the spectacular concert will be here in tanglewood, an outdoor concert space. it's the space they use in the summer. it seats thousands. there's a gorgeous lawn. this will be the first time it is open to the public, so a monumental occasion for the state of massachusetts, and the berkshires. the conductor will be here, we will be here, and in some very special guests. matt: the great thing about the boston pops is they are great
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musicians, but also great americans. the event has been about inclusion and diversity since before it was trendy. and it will be streaming everywhere, on tv, the radio? alix: everywhere. john baptiste will be here, as well as mavis staples. it will be a big event. i'm looking forward to it. matt: my whole family will be watching you up there on stage. alix steel from tanglewood for the boston pops. i'm matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i am mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. a boeing seven 37 cargo jet made an emergency landing near
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honolulu after reporting engine trouble. according to the faa, the coast guard rescued the two crewmembers aboard. the aircraft which was said to be more than 45 years old experienced engine trouble and was attempting to return to honolulu. german chancellor angela merkel and u.k. prime minister boris johnson are setting an optimistic tone for reopening travel between the countries. speaking in great britain, merkel said the world knows more about the delta variant than it did when germany imposed its restrictions. >> we are reviewing continuously our own travel restrictions. we think in the foreseeable future those who have received double jabs will be able to travel again without having to go into quarantine. mark: the u.k. has been hit

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