manus: good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai, i am manus cranny with dani burger in london. it is "daybreak: europe." crisis act opec-plus, saudi arabia stands firm amid the uae opposition to a production deal. talks continue today and we hear from the energy ministers of both countries. china's tech crackdown.

beijing blocks dede from -- didi from app stores. it cites security concerns. and positive jobs data pushes the s&p 500 to its seventh record in as many days. the u.s. stock and bond markets closed for independence day holiday. good morning. 6:00 a.m. in london, it is great to be back with you. what a sunday. this is oil diplomacy played out across bloomberg television. saudi's and m iraqis not speaking to bloomberg. -- the saudi and uae not speaking to each other but speaking to bloomberg. the extension is something we do not need to discuss today. fast and furious, the oil market stoic this morning. dani: it is great to have you

back. since one of the best barometers of how serious the situation is, not only on the first day you get back you do this cracking interview with the uae finance minister, but you were supposed to be enjoying the sunshine and you were keeping on top of the opec story. that tells you why the market is nervous, because it is nervous, isn't it, with the tight spreads? manus: it absolutely is. nobody thinks $100 oil is attainable, but he would not answer the question. we will hear from both ministers in a moment, at the heart of this. how do you break the impasse, what is the risk to the market and how do they get through this? this will be a fascinating day. nobody is talking at the moment about complete implosion of the opec-plus alliance. dani: right, that flag not being waived, the uae threatening to leave not happening yet. that is key to the story. i want to jump into the data, starting with brent.

snapping four days of gains, headed lower and hovering around $76 a barrel. we are seeing gains in the dollar. some are saying the risks not just from opec but china cracking down on tech means that havens are looking stronger today. despite that, chinese equities staying resilient in the face of the cracking down on tax. tech shares higher. s&p 500 futures, it is a holiday in the u.s. and they are not trading them up but futures trading is happening despite cash markets closed at the moment. our attention is not in the u.s. today, it is squarely in the middle east. manus: absolutely, and we will come back around to that with our guest, but let's focus on the opec-plus crisis. by the way, happy independence day. a standoff between saudi arabia and uae continues, and the fight

is over the move to extend the production packed, -- production pact, leaving oil countries in limbo. they are airing their differences right here on bloomberg television. we spoke exclusively to both sides. >> just to be clear, you have not threatened to leave opec, and right now you are not prepared to threaten to leave if you do not get a deal? >> no, we have an agreement to fulfill. we are not now close even to -- that agreement. we are not threatening that agreement or threatening anyone. the uae will not be an obstacle in front of anyone. that is not our strategy. we sacrificed a lot.

we will continue to sacrifice until the end of this agreement, that is our commitment. beyond that, we want to discuss and we demand to have the time to discuss and put our grievance in front of -- >> we will honor the agreement and continue with it. the agreement is to bring more production, yes, but to honor the agreement, we should kickstart what is mentioned in the agreement, is we have to extend it. manus: the two sides set to return to the table later today. our middle east energy reporter who worked with me, paul wallace, great to have you on air this morning. we have digested of sides of this equation. how do they break the impasse? what is likely to happen today? paul: hi. this is an extraordinary crisis

at opec, the deepest for quite a long time. all eyes will be on the meeting today, this afternoon london time, to see if uae and saudi arabia can bridge the divide, which is pretty wide at the moment. instead of that closing over the weekend, it looks as if it has widened, if anything. dani: with that in mind, does that mean it is more unlikely at this point to bridge that wide divide and strike a deal? paul: at the moment, it is hard to see what they can do. opec-plus and opec are pretty used to what they might call elegant solutions to the various spats they have faced in the past few years. in this case, the saudis and uae are both adamant about their

stances. saudi arabia says the current opec-plus deal that ends april 2022 has to be extended until the end of next year for the good of the market. the uae is digging in its heels and saying that is not the case, we can talk about august production increases, and they support that, but they say the idea of extending the deal beyond april next year has to be treated separately. neither side seems willing to budge at the moment. manus: they chose bloomberg as the court of debate, didn't they? uae first, and then that brought the saudis to the conversation here on bloomberg. where are we if there is no deal? his excellency makes it clear this is the comfort zone and that's what the market wants and everybody else wants, except for the uae.

paul: yes. the uae is on its own at the moment. i think the chances of an all out price war similar to that we saw in march last year are slim at the moment, the saudis and uae have said, and they have said categorically, they will stick to their existing commitments, which means they will stick to this deal which runs until april next year. probably the most likely scenario if there is no deal today is there is no production increase in august, and opec-plus means -- meets again probably in a month's time and there was a good chance they will go through this all over again to try to convince the uae about extension -- about the extension. dani: paul, thank you. we will stick with the story. we are joined by alan higgins.

thank you for joining us, happy monday. how do you balance the risks at this moment? what is the biggest concern when it comes to opec and that the markets should be pricing in right now? alan: good morning. opec is more important than it has been more recently because we have this capital discipline them a especially with respect to shale. it truly is like the swing producer again. the biggest risk for the market, we know inflation is correlated to higher oil, and this probably comes more from the saudi side and the idea that oil prices could spike higher. that's probably the biggest risk in the markets. manus is more of an expert in this area than me, but it looks like there is a deal to be done in the end in this area between two pretty friendly states.

manus: you are very gracious, mr. higgins. there are much greater minds than i. i want to give you a reference, one of your prime minister's talked about splendid isolation, british history, for an irish man that is hard to understand. but that's what we've got, the uae standing on its own could do you think they are concerned about inflation? they are in -- on a collision course with the white house. they risk higher prices, which puts them head-to-head with the u.s. alan: the u.s. hates it when oil prices are too low and it starts to impact certain areas, certain states in the u.s., but you are right about the collision course. the risk of oil $100, there are

some forecasts of that, it is so correlated with short run inflation, that will make market very, very edgy. and we know the federal reserve is both a the economic data but also markets. ironically, we have pity week markets there. -- pretty weak markets there. equity markets are one thing, but it was the credit markets that were the serious issue. dani: credit markets really fascinating right now. alan, you're going to stick with us. let's get to the first word news. annabelle: boris johnson will urge britain's to exercise -- britons to exercise judgment to protect himself from covid. he will set out the last stage

of his roadmap for england in a press conference later today. the country has seen soaring transmissions of the delta variant, but so far without hi hospitalization levels. the chinese president and german chancellor and french president are expected to host a federal -- a video call this week. this as tensions summer between europe and the world's second-largest economy over human rights and democracy issues. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: thank you very much. coming up on the show, a positive jobs report pushed the s&p 500 up to its seventh record in a row. more on the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we never again want to be where we were a year ago today. [applause] so today, while the virus has not been vanquished, you know this -- it no longer controls our lives. it no longer paralyzes our nation. and it is within our power to make sure it never does again. dani: president biden speaking on the july 4 independence day holiday, and he also said the strength of the u.s. recovery is helping flip the script, instead of workers competing with each

other for jobs that are scarce, employers are competing with each other to attract workers. let's get the view from alan higgins, still with us from coutts & co.. what were your big takeaways from the jobs report? are you also seen that power is in the hands of employees -- seeing that power is in the hands of the ploy ease? -- of the employees? alan: yes, you could say that we are going japanese. it was a robust report, wasn't it? it wasn't quite blockbuster enough to really get the markets railed, but it was robust, and it is good news. the pessimists will still say we haven't replaced all of the jobs we lost in the pandemic and there is more to go, but there is no doubt the u.s. economy is running very hot right now. manus: alan, i'm going to use the same question from yesterday, my own plagiarism --

biden says the data flipped the script. does it flip the script enough to flip the fed to draw monster boy -- two demonstrably talk about a taper at jackson hole? alan: i would have thought so, they have to, especially with the red-hot property market they have there. the buying of mortgage-backed securities that indirectly supports the housing market. look, it is ridiculous. let them start talking about tapering, they should probably go straight to tapering. if they are wrong and inflation is not transitory, the interest rate a judgment -- rate adjustment will be too large and cause too much damage. the right thing to do is to prepare the markets for tapering. there will not be too many

chairs about no more mortgage-backed security purchases. obviously there is a bit of a supply and it will impact the market, but they need to get on with it. dani: they need to get on with it and start tapering, in a bloomberg opinion piece last week, it said tapering is coming, don't freak out. isn't that easy? we have the jobs numbers, we taper, and the market doesn't freak out? alan: that's a great question. the market will freak out a little bit. that is the nature of markets. the issue is, will the credit markets freeze completely? probably not met within a few days we can get back. could it just before tapering, could there be a correction in the markets, definitely. a small correction. the fed has to live with that and investors have to live with that. that is the price to pay for

smoothing over monetary policy. we have had a bit of a washout in reflation trade, haven't we? but the reflation trade can come back. manus: what is a -- what does a taper tantrum 2021 look at? bank of america, kind of adult equity market, you don't want to sell a dull market. the past 20 years, they have been .8 trillion, we are making records not since 1997. if i said to you in terms of percentage allocated to the u.s., are you upping that relative to where you are in the past 20 years? alan: that is a big question. the last 20 years, a firm like us in the u.k. has gone from primarily a u.k. investor to a global investor.

u.s. stocks are much higher than they were 20 years ago and even the last several years. but we are not part of the most recent trends you're talking about. there are concerns about the flows into etf's. the flip side, the so-called professional investor is very worried. you can see this, if you type " skew," which measures how much more expensive put options are as opposed to call options, and it is record levels. that is a sign a lot of professional investors are very worried over the market. i turn that around and i think they are paying up for protection. they are unlikely to be paid off and the market can go higher, the correction has to wait for tapering. dani: larry summers did say already of the reason he thinks

equity valuations are so high is you have people who have been paying up for protection and it goes unused and it doesn't pay off. do you have a sense of whether this is a hated rally right now? alan: it is a hated rally. most rallies are hated. i used to be a bond investor many years ago and we used to hate the equity market, we were interest rate players. it is hated, but we have incredibly strong corporate earnings and also, unusually, because we know analysts tend to forecast hi, the revisions are hugely upwards, and the fundamentals are there. also, going back to interest rates. we know interest rates are important, you see that in the u.s. housing market. they are more important than we think. they are everything. they are absolutely crucial in

keeping equities higher at these relatively enhanced valuations. manus: a symbiotic relationship. you know what kind of traders you have? salad eating equity traders and meat eating bond traders. allen, from coutts & co., thank you for joining us. coming up, we discussed the tech crackdown that continues in beijing. they have band ride-hailing app didi days after its u.s. ipo. the consequences for markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "daybreak: europe."

china is expanding its cybersecurity review of tech firms. the ride-hailing giant didi was removed from app stores on sunday, days after its u.s. listing. beijing says it is acting for national security reasons. this is a continuation of a trend, john, but how serious is this for chinese regulators? why are they investigating didi? >> the exact chronology and thinking behind this probe is still unclear. what we know is the amount of scrutiny of a big tech has increased, and the question of national security and data security is more in the limelight than ever, the global times news look -- newspaper pointed out that didi has information about where people are going day in and out and you

could work out patterns. the concern about national security. dani: you mentioned, didi not the first or only one, we have news about other companies under similar probes. what does this tell us about the state of play when it comes to china's focus on big tech? john: you have the full truck alliance, like didi for trucks, and you have a job recruitment website. i think this tells us geopolitical tensions between the u.s. and china are more in the market than they have ever been. at the same time as china doing this review of didi, the u.s. is doing a review of companies like tiktok and whether they are exposing data of u.s. citizens to the chinese. dani: very fascinating, and it's coming right after didi's ipo in the u.s. thank you, john. if you look at the data, one of

the things that did catch my eye is the chinese equity index. you can see, the third one over, down 6/10 of 1%. you have to imagine a lot of that big tech weighing on it. we are near lows when it comes to the csi 300. manus: this goes to a broader conversation, doesn't it? what is going to happen to global tech as the chinese take their tech to rein. it is july 4, happy july 4. i think it's interesting what alan said about the flow of money into the equity markets. seven records anaren, -- in a row, and that is a question whether that momentum can continue in the second half. we will see what the risks are for policy, tightening and regulation. dani: exactly, a lot of risk and

potential volatility for what is normally a calm a month. coming, we continue the opec conversation, the standoff between saudi arabia and uae, currently in limbo ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network. (announcer) the core is key to losing weight, getting back in shape, and feeling good. introducing the aero trainer, designed to strengthen your core, flatten your stomach, and relieve stress and back pain. it conforms to your body and increases muscle activity. abs, back, obliques, hips, and glutes.

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dani: good morning, everyone, from bloomberg's european headquarters, it has just gone fiscal and 30 a.m. in london. i am dani burger alongside manus cranny in dubai. crisis at opec-plus. saudi arabia stands firm amid the uae opposition to a production deal. talks continue today and we hear from the energy ministers of

both countries. china's tech crackdown. beijing blocks didi from app stores after u.s. ipo, citing security concerns. it is widening the probe to other firms. and ending steam. positive jobs data pushes the s&p 500 to its seventh record in as many days. u.s. stock and bond markets closed for the independence day holiday. happy monday and happy independence day if you ever celebrate, i am assuming probably not. for me, despite it being independence day, all eyes are on opec, that is the independence we have to look at, with the uae holding up conversations. we had a really important conversation with the energy finance minister. manus: they chose bloomberg as the court of public communication, because there is not much going on between saudi arabia and abu dhabi, and therein lies the point. the uae against the rest of

opec. if you want an extension of the deal, you have to re-base the baseline for them, that is the point. dani: it is. given what has happened with the conversations, the market is understandably nervous. we talk about the time spreads all the time and how key they are, and when there has been tightness in the market, it tilted toward $100 oil. manus: let's have a quick sweep through and then we will get to the ministers. the meat and potatoes of the day. s&p 500, july 4 closed. down by 1.8%. seven records anaren in as many days -- records in a row in as many days. the aussie dollar down. back towards the 50 level in china. the rba meeting this week with miniature lockdowns in sydney. covid variants, and smaller

lockdowns. the futures trade flat. the opec bus crisis is deepening. -- opec-plus crisis is deepening. saudi arabia versus uae, it is unprecedented for both countries. they chose one destination, bloomberg television. >> i would emphasize it is the whole group versus one country. which is sad to me, that this is the reality today. >> how concerned are you, if there is no agreement and potentially we could see what we saw last year, which becomes a price war? >> we have an existing agreement. i keep reminding people.

we have an existing agreement and we will honor the agreement and continue with it. the agreement requires we bring more production, yes, but keep honoring the agreement, we should kickstart what is mentioned in the agreement, which is we have to extend. again, the extension puts a lot of people in their comfort zone. it is [indiscernible] check with all of those who are participating in this market. >> -- has no production increase for august. if not every member signs up tomorrow, what happens in august? >> well, it is your chance to have may another interview with me tomorrow or after tomorrow, depending on when we finish.

>> are you worried we could see a massive spike in prices? because the market is in need of more supply for the month of august. >> if some people would like to have that, they can do that. is it our intent? no. if it was our intent, why would we do the proposing? it has been a two months affair. >> if you are on board with the proposal, there is just one holdout, the uae. will you continue to increase by $400,000 a day -- 400,000 barrels per day without the uae on board? >> you cannot because it is an agreement done by consensus. >> does this dispute have the potential to bring an end to opec-plus? >> if we have 20 countries on an agreement, why should it?

i give you a sequel number. in march, we did not have an agreement this -- agreement. the situation dictated the people could sit back and talk seriously about the situation. it is very simple. >> but opec-plus needs a consensus or it cannot work. if the uae does not sign-up, you said they will not be in agreement, but you are also saying this dispute cannot be the end of opec-plus. does this mean there could be an exit by the united arab emirates? >> what is expected -- is why they don't. they complained even before signing the agreement, they never brought complaints. they never brought an issue like

this ever since. why now? it is an extension -- it is an extension of eight months, and there is a solid logic behind it, as i explained and accepted by everybody. >> the reality is uae is for an unconditional increase in production, which the market would wire. that, i think the agreement is that all of the countries are supporting the wealth -- and we are for that. [indiscernible] unconditional. this time, they brought the condition to the production increase, and -- unnecessary to

take now, we still have eight to nine months in this agreement, and we are talking about plenty of time for the agreement to discuss and come up at a later stage with the conditions of the extension. [indiscernible] is the priority and we are for that. that is where we differ from the gm and see. all of these countries have voted for it, and because they have a different situation when it comes to the baseline, we believe we have a special situation that needs to be given time to explain to our friends. >> minister, one second.

you are unconditional in your acceptance of the increase in production, you are requesting a raise in the baseline -- the only way to compromise forward is what? a raise in your baseline of production? is that how you see the situation right now? >> no, what we are requiring is to decouple the two decisions. the extension decision -- time is given for uae to present its case to an independent, where we compare our status. we are only asking for fair treatment. we have lost one third of our production capacity it is sitting idle while many other countries have been given a

limited production, more than the capacity to produce. that is totally unfailing and unsustainable. >> are you prepared to leave opec if no deal is agreed? >> uae does not threaten to leave the organization. we have worked very hard. we calculated the differential between us and others and we have lost the most. [indiscernible] i think it is two different things. one thing is to put the condition on us to accept what the market would require, and if you don't accept that, if you don't accept the increase and extension, we will not except the increase of production. dani: there you have it, that is

the debate of opec, taking place over bloomberg tv, like you say, between saudi arabia and the uae energy ministers. for more, we are joined by our guest, oil and gas equity analyst. thank you for joining us this morning. how do you see this debate at the moment unfolding? does it seem like abu dhabi has the stronger hand and can get some of the baseline changes they want? >> thank you for having me. i think the fact that uae is doing now -- it came as a big surprise, first of all. but i think it was a calculated move and the fact that the uae kind of signed up to a deal back in april 2020 two which it doesn't feel comfortable anymore. that is because, if you remember

back in april 2020, you had the huge price crunch. there was a bit of a sense of urgency. meantime, in the past two to three years, it has happened is the uae has increased production capacity significantly, while most members of opec-plus have seen capacity remain stable. so the uae has a point that they are keeping eyes on a big chunk of their production. who has the higher hand? i don't think it is the uae, because the saudi minister said yesterday all ministers agreed -- all members agreed to the extension in 2022 and only uae rejected. i don't think the uae has the higher hand here, but there is the idea that the uae is not a member anymore, and there will

be talks in the organization, and whatever happens today, if they reach an agreement, you should expect more volatility and tension in upcoming meetings from now. manus: good morning. his excellency talked about the delay, decouple the propositions on the table at the moment, allowing time to de-escalate. what is the elegant solution today? how do we de-escalate? can we use his royal highness to get a production uplift, but agree they will review the review, so to speak? is that the elegant way through this, the elegant fudge? >> i think that is the easiest way and still the most likely way this will get selves today. even though they had a strong answer to their opec

counterpart. if they don't reach an agreement, they will lose credibility by a lot in this market and this is what opec-plus managed to build over the last 15 months now. with the fact that you have -- spreading very rapidly in some of the biggest economies in the world, i think the organization is likely to remain very cautious. i don't think the idea that we don't see production cuts and easing of cuts between august and december not happen, i don't think this is likely yet, but that rift between saudi and abu dhabi, i think it is more indicative of brewing competition between the coup -- the two countries and it will be more and more complicated to resolve. in regards to today's meeting, anything could happen. i think opec less has managed to

surprise the market many different times in the past. at the end, usually they have managed to reach a consensus. dani: if those seeds of this content are sown, what does that mean for the price of oil? do you see triple digits on oil as some others have predicted? >> i think we are in a position where a lot of scenarios now are on the table, and uncertainty is the highest it has been for a very long time. when you think the opec-plus goal is to stabilize markets and reduce uncertainty, uncertainty has not reached the goal this time. so yes, what seems to be the case is if there is no deal right now, we will not see an easing of cuts between august and september, meaning we will he and very tight market. yes, you could see probably

triple digit numbers for prices. at the same time, if we go back to the suggestion it is a free-for-all and everybody produces at once, i think a lot of traders will have that scenario in mind if today the meeting is not successful, then we are seeing a very irish scenario. -- bearish scenario. it is a very important meeting, probably the most important one since 2020. dani: very interesting dichotomy between potential bearishness or $100 per barrel oil. thank you for joining us. coming up, our analysts have identified 10 companies to watch and they all have something in common. we will tell you what that is and bring you the details, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we need to be cautious about the delta variant. >> we are still in crisis. we have india with problems, south america and turmoil. southeast asia, excluding china, has no vaccines. >> [indiscernible] it is just the fundamental drivers of recovery are there. [indiscernible] -- the demand, monetary stimulus , the very strong goods supplies and productive machinery preserved during the crisis. >> the point is now to have the most people being vaccinated in

the less time possible and ensure that we have a close -- of the situation with the variance. >> the combination of rows, fundamental growth, vaccinations are positive trends, to see the positive way the markets behave. >> the economic recovery, i do not see anything happening before second semester 2022. manus: the various government and business leaders talking about the global recovery, the delta variant and how it might play with concerns. let's bring in our bloomberg intelligence analyst. 10 companies hold a very different view from fundamentals of the current market expectations. they all have something in common -- they each have timely triggers in the coming months. craig hayes is the coleader of

data and senior strategist for bloomberg intelligence. dig into this more. the top 10 companies, what are the triggers for these companies? craig: indeed. thanks. all of these 10 companies as you said, have important upcoming catalyst in the next several months. they are all part of our broader group of focus ideas where we look for differentiation in what we think is going to happen, plus a trigger. if you don't have both, it doesn't count, and they have a new product story coming up, earnings event, corporate actions, something along those lines, some are positive, some are negative, but we think all of them have a trigger ahead that will change market views. dani: what about the trigger of reopening post-covid? how does that factor in?

tim: no doubt, it is critical. and at the heart of the reopening, which is at the heart of the market rallies we have seen, vaccines are clearly front and center. everybody knows about pfizer, but we still think pfizer's opportunity for selling new orders on booster shots, booster jabs, to governments is underappreciated and we think that will gain steam as delta and other variants come about. on the flipside, not everything is rosy. there are a lot of high expectations built up for the travel industry. airbus taking off, sorry for the pun. we think they are too high and deliveries will fall short. another example, boston beer, a favorite of mine, sam adams. they also have a thing called

truly hard seltzer. it is a favorite at home stay at home drink. as people go back out to restaurants and bars, we think they will go back to good old-fashioned spirits. same thing is true with doordash , another u.s. company that does a food delivery that we think will falter from the standpoint of current high expectations. dani: i have seen those hard seltzer's only where -- everywhere, and it was only a matter of time before they got a feature in bloomberg intelligence. [laughter] thank you, tim. coming up, we will discuss china and more signs of the economy topping out there. we will bring you the details, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." turning to china, more signs of the economy topping out. we are joined by juliette saly in singapore, digging through the data. what is it telling you? juliette: yeah, certainly the gauge for services showing a deeper downturn than we saw in the official gauge last week, with that the reading at 50.3 for june, well below estimates of 50.9, showing the weakest amount of new orders and business activity since april 2020. soft jen calling the survey a negative surprise with smaller businesses lagging the bigger ones in recovery. we are seeing this flow-through into weakness in equity markets as well, we know that is also due to the beijing crackdown on tax. goldman sachs overweight, sing an upside of 90% -- 19% on the

msci china index. manus: a short, sharp shock on the markets, regulation and compliance will get us all. that is it from the european show. anna and market take you through the next couple of hours. -- and mark take you through the next couple of hours. ♪

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anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards in london. mark cudmore joins me in singapore to take us all the market action this hour. cash trading is less than one hour away. here are your top headlines. crisis at opec-plus. saudi arabia stands firm among the uae's opposition to a deal. we hear from the energy ministers c