quitting their jobs. we only see that when people feel confident about the job market. >> i think we are far enough along that the scarring should -- >> i think it's going to be a market event. >> we missed on inflation for so long that the fed is focused on achieving the inflation target. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: bloomberg surveillance on radio, television, without jon ferro and lisa abramowicz. matthew miller from berlin picking it up as well. lots to talk about some major market moves. the repo market is something romain and i are looking at and the real yield is something. i have to go to a feel on the

room -- on the open and go to didi. matt miller picked up 1000 shares of didi because jon ferro was on vacation. matt: matt had -- romaine: matt had great timing. the turnaround you are seeing in the market, adr down 22% in the market. reports out of bloomberg news saying authorities in china have actually read -- reached out to didi about this ipo and delaying it and there are a lot of questions as to why that information was not relayed to investors prior to this. go ahead, matt, i know you are stuck. matt: how about giving me a heads up as an investor before the ipo. if the economist says not to do it i need that kind of information. tom: i want to go to a subset as we try to get the show started. what do you do if you are a

western bank in hong kong off of this action? do you move to singapore or some other geography? looking at the four-day workweek in america and a lot of it wrapped around what the markets are doing. what is your observation as we are one weeks out from the earnings season with jp morgan? romaine: coming off of last week's jobs report you have a scenario where a lot of people do think you could push higher. looking at 4350 on the s&p 500 around the average of where most strategists thought we would end the year. we have some nudging the price target higher, there is more left in the tank in u.s.. tom: the vix 15.8 three looking at the bond space absolutely fascinating, i want to do the nominal yield quickly. will we get a 199 on the 30 year

bond? what i would look at is the inflation-adjusted yield plus the inflation expectation is the residual end that is compounding the zeitgeist of 90 days ago. >> absolutely. the big change, the nominal yield dropping to 142 right now and core cpi is a real concern. he still have people buying this debt because other investors outside of the u.s. this looks better than -20 basis points. >> still positive but if that was to tipped negative that would be -- one more comment before we get to oil. what are the oil stocks doing?

is exxon behind brent crude? >> you have to understand over the past year there has been a disconnect between the prices we are seeing in some of these oil exploration companies and the price of oil itself. those companies have been out in front of this. the reaction i get not quite as one-to-one as you would think. >> i was having the obligatory celebration of independence day and all i can tell you is the guest quality through the week is something. say what you want on economics, finance, and the stock market. first place boston, benjamin joins us with the global market strategist, smartest guy on the block now. reaffirm a double digit 2021. >> definitely. i think we continue to underestimate the great

recovery. we will go into second-quarter earnings next week, i think we are going to beat the peak year-over-year and i think the next consorting story is next year and expectations are far too low when you have 10% nominal gdp growth. the stellar side of this growth story is 16 very high levels. and that's your insurance policy to the biggest risk, this will come down as the fed tightens here. i think that is where the growth story will upset the decline in valuations. i think you've had a remarkable first half and you will make less money than that in the second half. i think people should stay invested. >> when we talk about the growth a lot of people are starting to

look at the idea and the space of growth's earning and the pace of revenue growth for a lot of companies particularly here in the u.s. are going to be enough to overcome -- overcome concerns about the fed and inflation. are there certain pockets of the market you think will be more resilient than others? >> if you are in the bullish growth camp i am you are looking for who gives you the most leverage and exposure to the growth story, that is cyclicals, values, financials, everything that has pulled back in the last month or so. i think you will be given another opportunity to step up and by those progrowth names. u.s. earnings next week overall will be up from the second quarter but these cyclicals are going to be over 100%. if you look internationally throughout canada and all the other markets that have a much lower basis. the overall indices will see an

earnings growth rate. on the reopening story 25% of the world is vaccinated and i think the reopening story is just beginning. the ways to get exposed to that are these cyclicals. >> laying out an argument for structural supply constraints in oil pushing the price higher. we have also seen the opec saga. do you see other areas where we have real structural shifts in terms of inflation, you have the german election and the summit on your docket of things to watch. >> people going on in the oil space more broadly in the green transition moving to renewables. i think all the ingredients are there for $100 oil. you have this which is not incentivizing anybody to draw

for more oil. you have the recounts in the u.s. which rebound half as much as you would expected with prices at this level. i think there is a real supply constraint, that potentially drives oil prices up -- focusing a lot on the demand rebound right now. no one is going to be investing in a commodity space for a decade. the higher prices go ultimately that will incentivize supplied to come back to the market. sending out even more and moving to renewables ultimately the market is going to adjust. tom: you have been on a magical three year tear, but nobody has

nailed it like you. are we over the so-called rotation from technology to cyclical? is that emphasized too much versus just being in the market? >> i think so. i think cyclicals lead here because the growth story has some to go. it needs to be invested. the tech story is a different story big tech last quarter grew earnings 120%. a company that size coming off the year they had, we can have debate about what are you meant to pay for these things but i don't have a problem with that sort of earnings power, these markets, these balance sheets, more dividends and buybacks, it's a different story, still a

very attractive story. >> can't say enough about the terseness of this morning note as well. our knowledge is -- he went out and married a gorgeous spaniard. is it true that if the next sun is issued you will name him iran torres miller after the great manchester city waiting for the spanish team? matt: it will be a debate in our household. i am for england which is almost treasonous to my wife. she is in spain right now getting ready to watch the game. if they lose she might not talk to me. tom: it didn't work out for

henry viii. matt miller, tell us what euro 2020 means for berlin. what is the tone? is everyone focused on every individual game? matt: early and is an incredibly international city. the media absolutely excoriated the german coach, the german manager when he lost to england. berlin is mostly hipsters from brooklyn and the city of london. there are fewer germans here than you would imagine. tom: matt with analysts from berlin. matt: car talk is coming up. tom: obligatory car talk coming up at the end. italy and spain, i believe jonathan ferro is focused on a different team than mr. miller is focused on. my deepest sympathies, matt.

i cannot imagine what misses miller is thinking right now. >> are you rooting for denmark? tom: denmark we will do tomorrow. dan how part coming up with western capital. on the age of oversupply. >> oil jumps to the highest price in more than six years after a big fight between saudi arabia and the united arab emirates. plunging the opec-plus coalition and the coming days will determine whether the battle escalates into something as destructive as last year's price war. in the u.k. business lobbies cautiously welcomed prime minister boris johnson's plan to ease coronavirus restrictions on the july 19. there is also the issue of

liability surrounding infections in the workplace. president biden and russians vladimir putin say an agreement over international aid in syria set to expire this week. asking putin to keep aid flowing into syria and that will require the two nations and other members of the un security council to reach an agreement. in south florida rescuers search the rubble after the last of that condo building was demolished. that allowed crews into previously accessible places -- inaccessible places. another 117 still missing. shares of ride-hailing app didi plunged in the u.s.. chinese regulators ordered the company's app be removed from app stores. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta ritika gupta

-- i am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ pres. biden: we never again want to be where we were a year ago

today. so today, while the virus has not been vanquished we know this , it no longer controls our lives and it longer paralyzes our nation, it's within our power to make sure it never does again. tom: symbolism is everything and on the fourth of july the 240th anniversary of this nation, what we see from the president so different than what we saw from the previous president. mr. biden with a stark single american flag and the flag of the office as well more low-key and subdued than we saw in the previous four years. i different fourth of july at 1600 pennsylvania avenue. romaine bostick and matt miller with me. i think jon ferro might be on creed. there was a big debate about the greek islands the other day giving us huge assistance on the

greek islands was annmarie hordern who wishes she was there. she is in washington, hot, steamy, it's an odd day. the fourth of july coming out of it is so odd they are. i love what paul krugman said off of the jobs report, it is a warning in joe biden's america. does president biden have the time to celebrate? annmarie: good morning. part of the speech over the weekend was partially a celebration but also really a nod to the fact that the u.s. still has a lot of work to do when it comes to vaccination. the administration didn't meet their goal. to get 70% of the population one dose by july 4 and it 67% and that is going to be the talk of this week and the president will give an address on the covid response at 2:45.

you had the white house covid coordinator on the sunday shows talking about that this administration wants to double down and make sure the delta variant spreading in the u.s. and those communities that are not vaccinated get the resources they need to get there. >> does anything happen on infrastructure this week? it's a four-day work week and sleepy july in washington. there has to be a lot going on on infrastructure. annmarie: behind closed doors you will see phone calls. congress is in recess and this will definitely be behind closed doors. the president is going to be in crystal city, illinois wednesday talking about infrastructure and the american families plan. there will be officials wanting to do the pr for this infrastructure deal throughout the week. matt: in terms of infrastructure, how does oil play in? i know it's an opec issue that we are focused on, you are

focused on with your amazing interview yesterday, but how much does the white house care about $77 oil? annmarie: on friday we heard jen psaki talking about the administration worrying about increased prices of oil because what does that mean for consumers at the pump? it's precarious when you have a recovery taking hold and the price of oil can affect goods and americans filling up their tanks and traveling. over the weekend jennifer jacobs from our bloomberg news team reporting that there are concerns and officials are making phone calls to the most relevant capitals with riyadh and abu dhabi. there needs to be concerned in the background on opec in washington dc. >> what about the uae forcing a rebalancing of opec, will that happen? >> you could potentially see they re-force everyone to come back to the table and renegotiate their baseline, this is key abu dhabi who has spent

millions of dollars to expand infrastructure in their production. they want to flex their muscle, they don't want to be in the shadow of riyadh. they are at a 3.2 baseline and 13.8. if they do that, prepare for others to come and the saudi oil minister said that iraq and others would likely lineup. it would take months to rebalance all the baselines for though plast -- opec-plus members. >> this raises a question, the idea of what the american influences overseas whether it is dealing with opec and there is the situation right now in afghanistan with the pullout of troops and the commitment rate -- made by the previous administration that hyden appears to have fulfilled, we are getting reports out of afghanistan about issues in the northern part of that country with the reemergence of the taliban's presence.

>> pulling out of bagram last week, 40 five miles from kabul and you already have taliban forces coming in. you have a lot of refugees fleeing the country and this is going to be a geopolitical concern for the u.s. and also russia. president putin has been making calls to to jicha stand and uzbekistan and there is also syria, the united states and russia working on these aid corridors with syria. you could see a lot of geopolitical stories at play. romaine: what is the balance in the white house with regards to their focus on domestic issues and their focus on foreign policy issues? annmarie: i think it's been clear that this administration came in focusing on domestic issues. there are people at the white house whose core focus is on foreign policy but the overall goal of this administration is

domestic issues. they inherited a weak economy and the pandemic. as they see vaccination rates go up there could be a shift towards geopolitics. this administration wants to wean the economy off of oil and gas. while they want to settle down opec members and they are trying to relinquish their presence in afghanistan, this is definitely an administration that is focused on domestic policy. tom: thank you so much, greatly appreciated this morning. she was dazzling me there with her afghan analysis. futures at negative two, dow futures at negative eight. i find it interesting, matthew miller, that the afghanistan exercise russia over to america, i'm going to bracketed at 30

years, may be less, borders on a european war of another time and place. how is afghanistan treated in germany? matt: the germans have already pulled out their troops, but they are following closely what the u.s. is doing here. i would say that there is concern that once they pullout there is a vacuum that is created and only bad power can occupy that vacuum. germans are concerned but they are not in a position to do anything about it militarily. >> i sat in our news bureau in london ages ago and watched how the british treat this and it was following a casket all the way from cabell to london across the entire part of the day. we will continues with equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. romaine bostick and i are watching the equities market one

week before the huge earnings season. we'll take advantage of romaine's attendance to dive into equity markets. the 10 year real yield ever more negative. stay with us, this is bloomberg. good morning.

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tom: good morning everyone. bloomberg surveillance. jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz are both off. well. romaine bostick and matt miller with me this morning. -- well-deserved. romaine bostick and matt miller with me this morning. romaine: we have seen this a lot in the premarket. things are little bit tepid and once you get to the cash market, you're talking about seven straight days of gains right now for the s&p 500. a lot of that time gets back to what we heard earlier. the idea that people are reassessing their expectations for economic growth and earnings growth. that's putting a bid back into this market. it continues to do this crab walk to record after record.

tom: it's been interesting to see and it is the optimism of america. professor krugman mentions the idea of morning in president biden's america. we continue this discussion, more on international relations with richard haass. i year ago his effort was my book of the summer. i can't say enough about it being the required brief read to get you up to speed on the dynamics of the world economy. thank you so much for joining us this morning. what do you worry about after a fourth of july? what's the thing within the entire sphere of your work with the council on, where is your reading, where is your research where you're trying to figure something out? >> i could give you a very long list of international things that worries me. you mentioned afghanistan.

there's always china. people aren't talking about north korea. and it hasn't gone away. there's iran. the thing that worries me most is still us. what still worries me most is how divided this country is. our democracy is under assault from within and that's what worries me. if we can't come together as a country, there's no way we will be able to act effectively on the world stage. tom: you drove forward this discussion a lifetime ago, a world in disarray. after this fourth of july, and america in disarray. what do institutions need to do to get us back on course in a better direction? >> some of our institutions perform pretty well when you think about it. the courts have performed admirably, the media for the most part has fulfilled its role. the real problem i think is two things. one is washington.

we are still unable for the most part to come together to deal with some of the challenges facing this country even beyond infrastructure, things like immigration reform dealing with budget issues and so forth. and then at the state level, the disparity and state levels of vaccination is a real statement shall we say about the federal system and the unevenness of how the united states is dealing with what is still the biggest challenge the country faces. matt: why can't we get more of a bipartisan push beyond infrastructure? we have the $700 billion deal right now, but in the age of trillion dollar stimulus and a country full of patriotic politicians, why don't we get a bipartisan deal to give us an edge on our competition? >> we may have a bipartisan deal. i think central to it be a narrow definition of what

constitutes infrastructure. there's no bipartisan support for -- abroad definition of human infrastructure and then there are still questions of whatever scale legislation passed is how you pay for it and you're obviously going to have problems when it comes to specific tax increases. matt: is there ever a possibility that we get someone or big enough group that wants to clean out the loopholes, clean out the deductions and bring revenue higher. >> i don't see it. one of the rules of democracy, what drives democracy are intense minorities. you might have 90% of the country favoring background checks. and by and large you have very intense minorities in favor of loopholes and it makes it very hard even though a majority of the country might be open to the

sort of thing you're talking about. romaine: we talk about the disarray here and a lot of foreign nations look at that and see opportunity. we continue to be barraged by cyberattacks, presumably at the direction or at least with implicit backing of foreign governments here. you have the resurgence of china across the world and areas where the u.s. used to be the dominant force here. how much does the white house and the policymakers here in the u.s. need to be concerned about the influence or the lack of influence we may now have in parts of the world? >> you have two areas. one is with actual or would-be foes, the other is with allies. they have been more focused on trying to rebuild u.s. relations with our friends to reduce some of the uncertain d, some of the concerns. but with the two countries you mentioned, the administration

has focused much more on china than on any other foreign policy issue. haven't quite put together a comprehensive or coherent policy . with russia we are going to have a test. the president put down a marker about cyber. russia continues to allow cyber operations against us. the real question is are we going to act on the norm that in the case of terrorism, governments are held accountable for terrorist actions that come from their territory. are we going to act on the norms that governments are also going to be held accountable from cyber actions. we are going to find out. romaine: do you have confidence that there will be a diplomatic solution to this? >> no. you're not going to get some geneva convention on how to regulate cyberspace. the real question is whether you

can influence the cost-benefit assessment of a vladimir putin. that's the real issue. tom: is there a biden doctrine? secretary of state lincoln, the president. have they needed a distinction but you can call a biden doctrine? >> i don't see a doctrine. a doctor and has a degree of commonality and universality. what i'm seeing is an emphasis on rebuilding relations with allies, a surprising emphasis on the promotion of marker see, the idea of dividing the world between democracies and authoritarian systems. obviously fairly robust rhetorical and other set of responses towards china. there's been a reentry into multilateral organizations. these are all tendencies. i don't see -- that explains what goes -- is going on and

predicts what will go on. tom: what is so helpful is there can always be a headline that comes out that deserves perspective from richard haass. ambassador to china, u.s. officials that have phone calls on korean peninsula issue. you lead with this in our conversation this morning. have we been tested on biden and north korea? >> it awaits. historically we've gotten identification from north korea. there's been intriguing reports about real problems with covid inside north korea so one has the sense from afar that they've got their hands full. in the meantime north korea's capabilities have steadily built up over the last decades and i think the real question is does the biden administration try to start some type of what you might call an arms-control conversation saying we want to

get rid of all your nuclear arms and missiles. let's see if we can't slice this in a way where we get a bit of progress and what we want and in exchange you get a bit of progress on what you want which is sanctions relief. we haven't seen that yet, but i think it's possible. matt: i want to ask about her lynn. elections are coming up in september. do any of the possible out comes change the relationship between the west and vladimir putin? until now we have been really unable to strike back at russia or at least if we do strike back we are still spending billions of euros through nord stream 2. >> i think nordstrom has gone so far that it's hard to imagine anyone walking it completely back. the united states is going to have differences with whatever

leadership emerges in germany over china and russia. in both cases the german desire to have an economically led diplomacy or foreign policy will probably outpace us. i think that's going to be an inevitable area of some friction. ironically enough there might be less between the u.s. and the greens because the biden administration might find more often overlap stemming from environmental issues and human rights issues. tom: can't say enough about the required read, the world a brief introduction. a lovely primer on the state of the international relations. shelly banjo's really chalked this up. the mayor's race too close to call. you are the only one in the building who has figured out

ranked voting. romaine: i haven't figured it out myself. me and my wife are still scratching our heads here. interesting experiment in new york. you have eric adams, kathryn garcia. one of them has to get 50% at some point. i don't know how this works. i think they should just come on here and debate it out. tom: they could do that. we had some good interviews. matt: it's a point system the same way in formula one, you don't have to win first place all year long as long as you're on the podium more often and fewer other people are winning first places, you can be world champions. tom: we will have full coverage of this through the day. the progressive wily, most of her ranked votes went to garcia,

who took manhattan. but i would suggest adams and garcia is the focus of 125,000 absentee ballots. we will have more information on this today, may be a decision by july 12. stay with us. from new york and berlin, this is bloomberg. good morning. >> the price of >> -- west texas intermediate oil hasn't been this high since 2014. the united arab emirates blocked the supply increase. it left the global oil market without the extra supplies for the next months it had been counted on. the tokyo summer olympics will begin for a mostly empty stadium . government is arranging for the opening ceremony july 23 to be held with only a reduced number

of vips in attendance. originally 10,000 people were expected to be allowed. john gray says it's a pretty good time for real estate. he speaks on a wide range of topics on the first episode of bloomberg wealth with david rubenstein. >> i think it's still a pretty good time for real estate. the warning signs for real estate -- >> david rubenstein provides unparalleled access to the world's most successful investors. european central bank is entering the final stretch of its biggest strategy review in almost two decades. officials are trying to hammer out key differences over monetary policy. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by

more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the backings are not 100%.

there's a small chance that an enclosed environment with somebody who is infectious that's going to maximize the chance you will get sick. i do think we can predict that in certain areas it's going to be a reasonable thing to do for people to wear a mask indoors. tom: bloomberg school of public health, we should mention that mr. bloomberg of course owner of this television and radio property has been philanthropic with his alma mater, johns hopkins university. we are in the same tone here. you as the pro and meet as the clueless. that is the india delta variant seems to not be systemic but seems to be very narrow. the narrowness can be in america, the southwest or maybe los angeles it's worse.

tell us about the specificity of the map and a variant. >> you have to remember that this variant is more contagious and our vaccines are highly effective against the variant and prior immunity is going to have some impact against the variant. you are going to see that portions of the population of the world that have low vaccination rates, that's where it delta is going to flare. in places where even the high risk people are vaccinated, you will see cases that they won't necessarily run into hospitalizations. in places where you have no vaccines and little prior immunity in the delta variant, that's a recipe for hospitals getting into problems again. there are places like springfield missouri where they've gotten into trouble because there's enough high risk people that aren't vaccinated. i do think when you look at the world and the lagging rollout in

vaccination in many parts of the globe, the delta variant is going to have an easy time running through those areas. the goal in those places is to get their high risk population vaccinated. tom: i think of rubella -- do we have a risk of percent vaccinated giving us two americas? >> i think that's already happening. and many times where we talk about percent vaccination vaccination differences it's because of lack of access to vaccines. everybody can get a vaccine -- there are certain places where nevada, mississippi -- vaccinations are really suboptimal and covid-19 is going to be a constructive force.

because of the way the vaccination rollout has gone. this is the next challenge, trying to bring those areas up so the delta variant is even less of a problem there. >> some of these regional differences are absolutely stunning. definitely cause for concern. i am curious about some of the cross-border issues. there was a lot of talk over the last couple of weeks about why the u.s. canadian border continues to be shut down for any sort of recreational crossings. a lot of folks still scratching their head as to when you have states that about that border that are basically around 60%, 70% vaccination rates, why they cannot travel freely. >> this is something that doesn't really make sense to me. i think now with high levels of vaccinated individuals, there's no real reason for that border

to be closed. americans can go to many other countries, but they can't go to canada. that makes zero sense because there is in some cases just a different street that you are on. it can be open safely without harm to either country and i think it would be a good sign to show that highly vaccinated countries can go back to normal and canada is now more of a highly vaccinated country and we have testing and protocols to make that safe just like when an american goes to mexico or any other country that's open. matt, i couldn't imagine why any individual that is fully vaccinated wouldn't be able to fly into the u.s., might wife is going to have a problem with it next week. she is spanish, fortunately she's carrying an american infant with her. we have the under vaccinated countries creating new variants every day.

the delta variant isn't the end of this. al ferguson said the problem could be the omega variant. is that how these things typically go daca do they get worse or just the case fatality ratio get that are as they go on? >> it's a complicated type of calculation because it's not always one way or not always linear. there is a lamb to in south america. there are other variants that are going to continue to arise because viruses just evolve. we know our vaccines are highly effective against these variants especially when it comes to what matters. covid-19 is not going to go magically back it we have to vaccinate a high risk individuals, protect hospital capacity. we've got to move on with our life trying to keep it away from populations. variants are going to come and go. some of them might be more

contagious. it cannot be the case that there is always going to be some kind of andromeda variant that is going to evade everything a vaccine can do. it's very hard for a virus to mutate away from everything that a vaccine protects you against, especially those three things. it's a theoretical concern, but i don't think it's a real one. tom: matt miller those all hollywood and you just straighten him out. we need to go to the markets now. the real yield with a set back. not give 0.93. what does the jobs report mean for your world of the close and the equity market? romaine: it means stability. you talk about these markets which continue to sort of hit

these record highs. they are incremental. they are persistent and this is now our repricing. we are basically at a level right now in the s&p now a lot of people are starting to nudge up their targets. you're seeing that feed into the other talk about cyclicals. now people are filing back into that. it will be interesting to see whether the fed complicates anything. it doesn't appear at the market is betting that's going to be the case. tom: are people engaged in the surge in european equities? romaine: they are trying. if you're talking about retail investors now, they're just really isn't the technology to do that. there's not a functioning robinhood. tom: some would think that's an advantage. matt: some think that's good.

tom: we will see. we are going to move forward. we have a real treat for you. daniel alpert will join us. his book the age of oversupply definitive on the crisis. ♪

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>> businesses have been ready to reopen faster than workers have been ready to come back. >> a very high number of people are quitting their jobs. we only see that when people feel very confident about the market. >> i think we are far enough along that a lot of that scarring should dissipate. >> every data point now is going to be a market event. >> we missed on inflation for so long that the fed is really focused on achieving its inflation target. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. we welcome all of you. it's a four-day workweek in america. it's like a two day workweek for matt miller in berlin. he joins us slacking off. romaine bostick.