>> businesses have been ready to reopen faster than workers have been ready to come back. >> a very high number of people are quitting their jobs. we only see that when people feel very confident about the market. >> i think we are far enough along that a lot of that scarring should dissipate. >> every data point now is going to be a market event. >> we missed on inflation for so long that the fed is really focused on achieving its inflation target. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. we welcome all of you. it's a four-day workweek in america. it's like a two day workweek for matt miller in berlin. he joins us slacking off.

romaine bostick. it's not the fourth in berlin. what is it like to have an orchestra in the most historic outdoor building an american classical? romaine: i was out at tanglewood for the boston pops july spectacular. this was the first in person concert they've had since the pandemic. just to see everyone out there on that line, still limited capacity but you had a decent crowd. just absolutely fantastic. matt: it was not in the halfshell. tom: nobody cares. where they're real cannons? romaine: they had real canons. they were actually even louder. that's all anybody wanted to hear.

tom: these gentlemen have done it. i have never gone because they just don't think -- romaine: i'm sure they would have you. tom: i don't think so. a little lift to the market. this is the grinding market. let's do the dated check. romaine: you look at euro-dollar, the 10 year remains unchanged. the real story is this bump up we have seen in crude oil. brent crude doing its thing as well. tom: i do want to note we didn't talk about it in the last hour but the dynamics of this economy, the efforts of the fed and the overnight repo market, thisreally, expended out most t1

trillion in the last three days. it's coming a little bit. it will be stunning for global wall street folks to see where overnight repo goes over the next two days and really over the next two weeks as well. matt miller, is a celebration of english. -- it is a celebration of english football. they could not of hope for two games like we are going to get today. matt: italy and spain will square off tonight, and that could provide us, depend on what happens tomorrow, with an absolutely fantastic match for sunday. i'm hoping to watch with ferro on sunday. if it is italy-england, i'm not sure who he roots for. i'm not sure who he roots for.

tom: we will follow with good spirit with jon ferro through the week as well. right now, i really wanted to come out of the fourth of july with a vision towards where are we. daniel alpert was hugely acclaimed, deservedly acclaimed as well, and we speak to him now in this pandemic of undersupplied. are you concerned that we are undersupplied right now? dan: clearly we have some bottlenecks sorting themselves out, but we have now been through several months of news and headlines all focused on these enormous surges in prices in areas that are now well-known. what is going to happen is we are going to see the resolution of those problems and suddenly be had with headlines that say just the opposite.

it was the inflation scare, just a bubble. a passing fad, back to same old same old. the same issues are going to crop up again. how do you transmit economic growth to inflation over the longer-term? coming into the fall, we are going to experience something i don't think the markets are quite prepared for, and that is a potential contraction in personal incomes. the result of the curtailment of all of the government support that ends on september 6. we still have 14 million people receiving some form of evidences from the government. that number is shrinking every week, and it is going to fall between possibly two and three.

at that point, the question is will the jobs those people have succeeded, to the extent that they have found jobs, going to replace the same income they were making before. matt: so are we going to see when these employment benefits run is the report going to look a heck of a lot different in october than it does tomorrow? daniel: there's no question that this period has enabled people to stay out of the jobs market and continue on benefits. i don't think that is the sara lee a bad thing because i think proof in the pudding over the longer-term is going to be whether or not those really exist at wages that fall above the reservation wages of a lot of people where they are actually willing to get up and go to work. you are not going to get people, especially after this pandemic,

all that eager to make in, $11 an hour working a job that only offers 26 hours of work a week. at some point, people are going to work just to live, but that is not a pretty picture either. the real question is what is the fall going to look like. we are going to enjoy the summer. none of this is really going to come into focus. tom: we've got to stop the show here right now. dan alpert, you were on the beach yesterday? matt: i know where he was. tom: in the hamptons? are you serving in the hamptons? what are you doing? daniel: i was at my club of 27 years that dates back to 1886. tom: did they just velcro a jenin tonic and a your hand -- a gin and tonic into your hand? daniel: we drink a south side there.

romaine: that concludes the cocktail portion of this interview. [laughter] another component a lot of people are looking at is the additional fiscal stimulus. there's a general sentiment that investors are welcoming additional spending, at least to a point out of the u.s. government, and the assumption is that this will drive another leg of economic growth. daniel: unquestionably. the bond market is squealing for it. long-term yields are less reactive to at the federal reserve is doing. the amount of float out there is doing significant in the long-term. people are seeking risk for yields. when you -- what you have is a

situation where people who are looking to park their money, and it is really parking, are looking for an expansion in that inventory of risk-free government bonds. just look at the reaction. you had a fairly favorable -- you had a fairly favorable jobs report that you would think would create a selloff in bonds, and of course, it did. look at where bonds are opening this morning. tom: dan alpert, thank you so much for sending us up into july with westwood capital and the age of oversupply. moving on, we've got to get back to the markets romaine, i'm sorry. that's a south side. mr. miller speak from experience?

matt: the south side is a delicious cocktail. i believe it was invented at a hush and -- at a hunting and fishing club out in long island. tom: the mallard was flying over, and they couldn't catch it. the tang mimosa this morning is really quite good, so i don't need to have a south side. with serious news out of china, the headlines drift out right now. romaine: this is interesting. we kinda saw this coming. china basically pledging greater data scrutiny for companies. basically, guidelines being put out right now in china. they don't specify any specific companies, but all of the talk right now is on didi. that is your biggest market mover, down about 20%. a lot of concern about what didi knew heading into that ipo. matt: for those of you on global

-- tom: for those of you on global wall street, i'm going to butcher this. help me, romaine. full truck alliance. i nailed that. let's do a data check. green on the screen. the nasdaq 100 goes green. romaine: you are seeing a bit of a bid come into those eager tech stocks. that does appear to be the safety trade area that appears to be what a lot of people are looking at at the next leg of growth is going to be baked into that. tom: jon emails in and says look at the 10 year real yield. we will look at that on friday with jonathan ferro. as we heard from mr. alpert, it has been a real shock to see the inflation. the same thing on the jobs summary.

this is must listen, must watch. christopher grisanti of mai. earnings season next week. stay with us on radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. oil jumped to the highest price in more than six years today after a bitter fight between saudi arabia and the united arab emirates blocked a supply increase and plunged the willison into crisis -- plunge the coalition into crisis. the coming days will if it is as destructive as last year's price war. there is a heavy dose of skepticism. it's good news for pubs and nightclubs, but there's also the issue of liabilities surrounding infection in the work base. president biden and russia's vladimir putin face a test over

agreement in. president biden asked to keep a flowing into syria. that will require the two nations and other members of the united nations security council to reach agreement. the cost of renting a home is soaring in sitting across -- in cities across the u.s. the median national rent climbed 9.2% the first half of 2021, squeezing the finances of low income households and posing a threat to the idea that pandemic inflation will fade away soon. shares of ride-hailing giant didi plunging in trading in the u.s. regulators have ordered that it be removed from app stores. today, the government pledged it will improve regulations and laws regarding data security. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> the bar to hike for the fed is much higher.

they want an inclusive recovery. they want inflation to subsist -- to consistently be at are above the 2% overshoot. tom: priya misra, hugely valuable on full faith in credit. it has confounded experts through the first half of this year, inflation. 1.42% on the 10 year yield. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz off today. thrilled romaine bostick and matt miller could darken the door today. what do you think, remaine -- romaine? will we miss the match? romaine: no, full wall-to-wall coverage. tom: you got the tv feed.

talking about didi in china, but i would also point out for the uninitiated like myself, i believe spain back to back scored five goals in two consecutive games, which is sort of cool, right? matt: not counting the penalties, right? tom: i don't know. i tell ferro, they should kick the ball from farther out and make the penalties more exciting. washington always exciting. jack fitzpatrick joins us this morning. i want to talk about jacksonian americans. president trump had a big portrait of andrew jackson in the office. we are migrating away from a jacksonian america, but i huge part of the republican does not. tell us about that tension of the republican primaries in march of 2022. what is the strength right now of mr. trump's jacksonian america? jack: trump really is the force

behind the republican primaries right now. if you look around the country in congressional primaries, whether you have gotten an endorsement from trump or whether you have cast yourself as a trump i could light is a key question -- trump acolyte is a key question. especially if you are trying to get at what his legacy is and how he shapes the country in the long-term, does the republican party stick with him in 2024? is he going to run, or even just how he factors into the other people running in 2024 and whether they cast themselves as, but that's essentially the identity of the party right now. tom: you are a real journalist, so i have a respect you don't want to give your opinion on this, but as a general feeling, is your reporting showing that president trump is casting

around and trying to find a path , or is he just strategic shall he -- just strategically biding his time to get out to the primary season? jack: it seems that at least right now, he is trying to maximize his influence, but there are a lot of questions as to what that leads him to and how he does it. at times there appeared to be an aspect of staggering through the blindness. when you see him aligning himself with a new social media company and trying to get interest in that, when he's struggled with a blog, that his website is now down, in social media with putting out statements. clearly he interested in maximizing the amount of attention he gets and influence he has over his political communications, but there are some real struggles there.

i don't think you can necessarily argue there's a very clear strategy as to how or to what end. tom: -- romaine: if there is, we haven't seen it. there are some basals out there who would back him no matter the strategy. we've also heard reports that the biden administration has been trying to make a little bit more of an effort to reach out to some of those trump voters, or at least some of the more conservative wing of our political system here. the idea that they can maybe appeal to them with some of the economic policies. i am wondering whether there's actually a bridge that could be built to that sort of wing of our political system here, or whether the gulf is too wide. jack: when you look at 2015 and the power of donald trump as a candidate, he clearly did energize some voters who supported him who were not your traditional republicans and were

not particularly interested in politics for a pretty long time. the question is exactly what gets them on board. there's a real power to pushing policies such as giving out $1400 checks during a recession. is it just to win those people over, or do they want to see much more, like the board of all -- the border wall that trump pushes so hard? there could be overlap with biden, but clearly that is not just going to win over the trump voters, so there could be some populism appeal to some of those voters, but there's a limit on how much he can do. matt: the biden camp has got the populist appeal with it as well, right? casting millionaires and billionaires as the enemies of the state almost with a tax policy, how much of that is going to really come to for wishon in terms of the biden tax wish list?

jack: that's what i am getting at, that the so-called centrist or moderate democrats which we would have called biden previously are now adopting much more progressive policies and being pushed that way in the name of finding an appeal to the voters who you would probably call populist and who may have been one over by trump -- they have been won over by trump. on the tax question, that of what we have seen from biden erie it he can get agreement on a bipartisan level -- from biden. he can get agreement on he bought prison level on what to spend on -- on a bipartisan level on what to spend on. but there is such a fine line in narrow majorities in the house and senate that if anything falls off the table, it is maybe those tax policies. tom: jack fitzpatrick, thank you

so much for a tuesday report, with bloomberg government this morning. with where we are in the markets, i see we've got to go back to yield. it is a deeper market. many people would say yields out front. what does the equity market? a sustained low yield gives you ratios you can live with. romaine: that's been a big part of the story for equity markets over the last three weeks or so. this drop we saw as the yield curve definitely is providing a bit of a boost, but keep in mind, a lot of folks on the shorter end of the yield curve, which is going in the opposite direction, and at some point this gets reconciled. how it gets reconciled and how it pushes the equity market still remains to be seen. tom: just to bring up apple as a small caps that would like to look at, pe 32. romaine: no, don't do that. we talk about the pes.

we talk about these ratios here. . they are still looking at the growth, the revenue side, the margin side. the pe itself, push it to the side. tom: he's drunk the kool-aid of "the close." he's not dealing in cfa rationality. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, on radio and television as well. matt miller in europe, waiting for italy and spain. romaine bostick with us. we will get to the stocks in a moment. looking at where we are this morning, as romaine mentioned, resilient equities and the bond market confounding the higher yield. the dollar stronger, but there's an oddity do it. i'm going to call it a churning american dollar this morning. romaine bostick, do you start with didi? romaine: you've got to start with didi, the story really

rocking the market this week. a successful ipo last week. they are being down to size by chinese regulators, concerned apparently about data privacy issues. there's a great story on the bloomberg terminal about the idea that apparently, chinese regulators approached didi about three months ago about delaying this ipo because of some of those privacy concerns. they went forward with their ipo. not really care what the next step is, but a lot of reverberations across the chinese tech space. even here in the u.s., uber down about 1.5%. a lot of stocks to keep an eye on here that could see some fallout from that. the other big story of the day is what is going on in the oil market. you are looking at above $77 on crude, providing a benefit to the energy stocks, including exxon mobil, conoco.

a lot of shale companies doing well. the idea is that if opec puts a floor underneath prices, that will be good for everyone else. american air express getting the upgraded goldman sachs. those shares higher by about 2.5%. you want to know why? virgin galactic come i am told they are going to blast richard branson up to space in about five days time. those shares have been down about .5% over the last four days -- about 25% over the last four days. tom: let's get the calendar right. bezos is going up july 20. he's going to go up, enjoy space, come down. is it rude of me to say that mr. branson is frontrunning mr. bezos? romaine: well, mr. branson's scheduled flight was after bezos , but now it is this coming

sunday, so there does appear to be a little bit of one-upsmanship among the two, two of the richest people out there. matt: i have to say come in either one of them is going into orbit, nor are they getting out. so what is the deal? romaine: i believe they will stay strapped in. but it is technically space, matt. once you get above the atmosphere. tom: to be honest, i think i was sick. i did a fair is the day that john glenn orbited three times -- a ferris buehler the day that john glenn orbited three times. before that was alan shepard, going up just like you say, not getting into orbit. but there is the telemetry of getting someone up safely, and just as important, they've got to -- it is not like walking

down mount marcy in upstate new york. you've got to come back. matt: didn't red bull send somebody up to the carbon line, and they jumped out with a parachute? a lot of people can go up that high. kailey leinz's dad is a fighter pilot. he can fly up there in an f-16. tom: right now, he went up on friday and look at the american employment commodity, tom porcelli joins us of rbc capital markets. inflation-adjusted wages are not there. do you just presume that somehow , we get inflation-adjusted wage growth? or is that going to be something we cannot attain in the coming quarters and years? tom: first of all, good morning.

hope everybody had a good holiday. something like that is going to take more time that an otherwise would in the context of we have a lot of inflation right now. the fed keeps telling us it is transitory, so i think these inflationary pressures, it will take time for that idea to develop. what we have to keep in mind is as we look at wage pressures, very very present. they are starting to build. i think it will take time for them to push into more of a positive territory when you adjust for inflation, but no one can deny they are moving in the right direction. this is an idea that takes time. tom: those expectations came in a little soggy. it is the negative real wage -- is the negative real wage enough to derail or get us to a 2% gdp sooner than we think? tom: i think what we have to

keep in mind, i love this question -- tom: it's my only good one today. go with it. tom p: i think of it as sort of a step function. the first step in that function is this sort of mountain of saving that we are sitting on. i think that is going to be a critical ingredient to let us see this 10% or near 10% growth rate. i think at some point that is going to hand off to wage pressures, which we know are mounting now. so the step function there is you are going to see some slowing in economic activity. people want it so simple. growth is going to slow from roughly 8% in the coming year to roughly 4% or 5% growth next year, which is still meaningfully above potential growth. that step function then going

from wages -- excuse me, going from saving to wages, and the next step function is an interesting one. we think that could then hand off to the banking system. if you look at the loan deposits ratio in the united states, it has collapsed for all the reasons that you would think it would collapse over the course of a pandemic. so what is interesting is at some point, that is not going to remain collapsed. at some point the banks will then step in. people will start knocking on the doors of banks once they have depleted their savings, once wage pressures start to stabilize. i think there's a few steps in the function that could really help us achieve really strong growth, north of potential growth through the next few years. romaine: when we do get to that stage where folks come knocking back on the door, with regards to commercial loans as well, if

that happens, with rates currently where they are, what does that mean for the banks? tom p: i'm not going to get into the banking sector. but what i would say is even for me, someone who has been talking about more inflationary pressure , stickier inflationary pressure , i still don't think that yields go that high. i'm looking for tenure yields to rock at higher from here. i think we will be lucky to -- i'm not looking for tenure yields to rocket higher from here. i think we will be lucky for that to happen. matt: doesn't that tell you something about how the market sees economic growth further out? tom p: no, i don't think it is quite that way. i think there are a couple of very important ideas that are weighing on the market. let's be clear, we are all the

market. we are all the people making these forecasts, and i think whoever the market is, i don't think they know any more than any of the economists or any other analyst building views on the economic backdrop. so what i would say is instead of, hey, the market knows something more about the backdrop, what i would say is this. i think there are a couple of key things weighing on the market -- not weighing on the market, that are stopping yields from really rising materially. here's two of them. the first is i think we have to keep in mind that we obviously have countries in central banks that are still engaged in this negative rates experiment. that is obviously something that i think needs to be entertained with bunds yielding negative right now. it is very enticing to japanese investors and two european

investors in particular. i think that is a factor that is weighing on tenure yields. the other effect i think you have to keep in mind, where is the fed going with funds? their long range estimate is only 2.5%. the last hiking cycle, when the fed got funds to do 15%, but the long run estimate then? it was 3%. over the course of the last five or six years, long-run estimates have shifted from 3% down to where it is today, which is 2.5%. if the fed's 50 basis points less then the last hiking cycle, then i think -- nothing that equation work. the fed has done nothing but chop there long run estimate of funds. i think they are going to have a really tough time lifting rates materially, and i think that is yet another factor that is acting as a ceiling. tom k: and can they do it in a linear fashion, or is it a jump

condition at some point? we will have to see how that works out area mr. porcelli, thank you so much. romaine, it is a research note aid for you and "the close." he's been bull. he's been dead on, no question. he says we are reviewing our target price. tom k: we are going -- romaine: we are going to hear a lot of this. the idea is that the growth story a lot of people thought was started in two peter out, there's a big reassessment of that. a lot of people saying that 3300, 3400, that might be too low. matt: i will remind you that our old friend byron wien, before the year even started, said 4500. it always shocks me how right he is with so many of those points he forecast. tom k: we have much more to talk about here on economics, finance, investment, also

italy-spain. i believe there's a soccer game with denmark tomorrow as well. the red sox are on the west coast. they beat the los angeles angels as well. that was equivalent to euro. stay with us on radio, on television. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, ritika gupta. the price of wti oil hasn't been this high since 2014. crude surged after a fight between saudi arabia and the united arab emirates blocked a supply increase. it has also plunged coalition into a crisis and left the oil market without supplies for the next month that had been counting on. in tokyo, the summer olympics will reportedly begin before a mostly empty stadium. the government is arranging for the opening ceremony july 23 to be held with only a reduced number of vips in attendance. originally, about 10,000 were

expected to be allowed. blacks president and coo john gray says it is toy pretty good time for real estate. he speaks with david rubenstein tonight on bloomberg tv. >> i'say it for a couple of reasons. the warning signs for real estate are twofold. too much capital, and we don't really have that in the real estate system today. the other, too much building. we are actually below historic levels in terms of new supply. ritika: "bloomberg wealth with david rubenstein" debuts tonight. the european central bank is entering its biggest strategy review in almost two decades. officials will try to hammer out key differences in monetary policy. a major issue is agreeing to a new formulation of the ecb inflation target. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700

journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> we must be honest with ourselves that if we can't

reopen our society in the next few weeks when will be helped by the arrival of summer and school holidays, then we must ask ourselves when will we be able to return to normal. tom k: the prime minister of the united kingdom with the challenges of the united kingdom, very different than america right now. jonathan ferro i believe returning tomorrow with much more on that as well. a "surveillance" correction. sometimes i get it wrong. i mentioned apollo three, and of course, the tragedy was apollo one. thank you for that note, out on twitter. right now, and i have a bone to pick with david wilson because i'm sorry, it is not next year energy. it is florida power & light. you look at the utility index and it has none of the romance

of dominion or southern or duke energy. utilities. we don't talk about them anymore. why? dave: because they haven't been doing all that well lately, and part. it is the only industry group in the s&p 500 that was down in the second quarter. contrast that with real estate which you tend to lump together because you're talking about interest rate sensitive industries, relatively high dividend yields, and real estate was the best performer last quarter among those 11 main industry groups. that was the first time since it was broken out of financials. dave: you're really seeing a contrast doesn't make a lot of sense. so maybe you want to go the other way. maybe you want to bet against real estate and by the utilities, looking for a reversal. , especially with a move that has come up since mid day. that is ash since mid-may. that is what -- especially with

a move that has come up since mid-may. maybe there are dividends with energy stocks having a higher payout. maybe they are more appealing on that basis. there are any number of reasons. tom: we've only got time for one more question. american electric power company, that sounds like a mainly company. some -- it is san diego electric, right? dave: this is a process that has been going on for a couple of decades. tom: ameren, what is ameren? dave: to some extent, these are made up names because these are companies that own a number of utilities. tom: it is a pr exercise to get away from what they really do, which is energy, right? dave: all i am telling you is that you've got someone out there looking for the second

quarter relationship to reserve itself. tom: we don't do enough on utilities. next year, duke energy the way down to 8%. southern energy, 7%. right now we got to go to oil. romaine bostick, bring in will kennedy. romaine: will kennedy, bloomberg's cakes in better -- bloomberg executive editor for commodities. we got to talk about the oil market here. we came into this opec meeting, there were a lot of bets being made that we would see a little bit more restraint, but i think what we are finding out now is that the coalition may not be as coalesced as we once thought it was. will: no, i think the word i would use these stalemate. they are traditionally the strongest allies in the middle east, saudi arabia and the uae, completely at odds with one another and unable to reach an agreement. what that means in the short term as there is no more oil

coming into the market. it is not going to happen. you have seen the front of the curve really respond and oil prices in new york reach a six and a bit year high this morning . but what you are really seeing is a short-term boom and longer-term uncertainty, and you're seeing the spreads between oil now and next year really blowout because in the short, there's not enough oil. the story we need to focus on is what happens with the uae because they appear determined to produce more oil, and those barrels are going to come to market one way or another. matt: they have to. will: yeah, they have to because they are leaving too much on the table. matt: and they've invested so much, and they need to pay off eventually, so do we see opec need a realignment? will: they've invested billions of dollars and brought in foreign partners to do it, and

now they need to keep those partners happy. how it happens i think is the story we need to be watching in the coming weeks, whether there is some kind of compromise to sort themselves out, or more than that in a scenario that produces barrels, or the extreme scenario, leaving opec. tom: away from your work, the technicians have looked at $80 as an important level. chris verrone at strategic nailed this ash at strategic -- at strategas mailed this. will: it is a multiyear high. we are seeing the price in the u.s. go toward $70, which is a big psychological price. yes, i think it is the price where policymakers in consuming countries start to worry that oil is getting too hot. if engineered, saudi will start

to worry that the heat on them becomes too much once it goes past $80 because people say this is more than we are willing to pay, and it adds to the whole inflationary discussion we've been having in recent months. tom: thank you so much. our executive editor for energy and commodities there. romaine bostick, i want to get out front of chris chris auntie at the top of -- of chris gris anti at the top of the hour. this polarity between big tech and cyclicals, it just won't go away. it is almost a barbell. romaine: well, there is certainly this idea that when you are looking for growth, looking for healthier margins, looking for a little more resiliency in this market, you can find it there. that's why we sell that rotation back into it. it will be interesting to see if we do see a little more embrace of the cyclicals. we are starting to see a little bit of that now, whether it

comes at the expense of big tech the way it did earlier this year . tom: this is a stunning headline coming out from china. weibo chairman state firm plane to take weibo private. this is a twitter equivalent, right? romaine: it is more or less a mashup of twitter, facebook, they have payment systems as well tied to it. this is huge here. we don't know if it is directly connected to some of the regulatory issues going on over there, but there's going to be a lot of speculation for this company to be taken private not only by its chairman, but by a state owned firm. adrs in the u.s. of 20% on this deal. david wilson is still with us. you have been doing this for 30 years. flat out, we have never seen this before. dave: i wouldn't necessarily go that far because we have seen it to some extent with chinese companies come over they have gone public and then pulled back

and been taken private. you have to bear in mind, weibo here in the u.s., you've got to wonder, especially in light of dede, whether there ash in light have -- in light of didi, whether they will be more deciding to go private.

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>> 25% of the world is vaccinated. i think this reopening story is only just beginning. >> i do think we are far enough along that a lot of that scarring should begin to dissipate. >> we've missed on inflation for so long that the fed is really focused on achieving its inflation target. >> we are going to experience something i don't think the markets are quite prepared for, and that is a contraction in personal incomes. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning,