his goal of 70% of adults getting at least one shot by the fourth of july. that number stands at 67% of americans. the president is expected to announce the expansion of mobile clinics to get more americans vaccinated. authorities in sydney are doing what they can to take steps to make sure the australian cities current two-week lot down is it to last in the pandemic. it's a sign that stay-at-home orders may be extended beyond friday. there are new concerns the community is especially vulnerable to the delta variant of the virus following the discovery of cases in both residents and staff of an aged care facility. an announcement on whether the lockton will be extended is expected on wednesday. starting tomorrow, germany will make it easier for travelers coming from the u.k., portugal,

russia, and india, among others. they will no longer have to quarantine for 14 days. still on the variant list, south africa, or why. new york city could find out today who its next mayor is likely to be when the board of elections releases their results of the absentee ballots in the city's democratic primary race. no candidate won an overwhelming majority on election day. eric adams lead the way with first choice votes, led by maya wiley. the primary winner will face republican nominee curtis lee in november. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.

♪ matt: it is 1:00 in new york, 7:00 in berlin, 1:00 in hong a.m. kong. i'm matt miller. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. u.s. service industries pulling back from a record high. ism showing slides of slowing growth. we will discuss with data peterson -- dana peterson. and we will speak to the founder of next door and khosla ventures , who is taking the company public via a spac. and we have the latest on the virus and vaccine beam we will speak with william moss with the johns hopkins school of health. let's take a look at the markets. equity indexes are down with the

s&p 500 off 25 points, 4324. coming down from a record high. u.s. treasury coming down as well. 1.3666 is the amount of interest you get for lending your money to the government for 10 years. keep in mind, that is just phenomenal rate. the real rate minus inflation is almost -1%. dollar index up half a percent. getting some real traction. it was down this morning, now it is solidly up. nymex trading at $73.49 a barrel. let's get back to the tumbling treasury yield. after ism services data expanded in june by less than forecast, highlighting a struggle for

employers to attract workers in industries like hotels and restaurants. joining us now is dana peterson, chief economist at the conference board. let's talk first about the labor market. do you expect a big change at the end of september, after the on appointment benefits run out? dana: we are expecting a few big changes in september. certainly, many children will go back to school in person. also, the extended federal unemployment benefits will go away. we would not be surprised to see an uptick in the number of hirings in september as many women are able to go back to the labor market, as many low income persons are able, willing to sign up for work, as on appointment benefits are expired. last week's employment data was quite constructive.

we saw 850 million ads, consistent with the million jobs you need to see every month to pare down that 6.8 million persons to missing from payrolls. also as governments continue to move through restrictions, vaccines are rolled out, people feel less concerned about contracting the virus, that that will also help to influence positively the labor market going forward. matt: as kids can go back full-time to school, are we going to meet this year's requirements? dana: inflation gauges are above the 2% target. the last few readings have been above headline and core. also you are seeing a continued decline in the unemployment rate, john gaines especially in

the services sector, leisure and hospitality. the fed would still say that we are not seeing substantial progress. when you look at unemployment rates for different minority groups, black and latino persons, people with low skills, and when you look at the number of people still not working, 57% of than are women. -- them are women. we need to see those numbers improve before the fed can say we have made substantial progress. the fed is looking to see a more extended period of elevated inflation gauges. they are still saying inflation is transitory. i think the jury is still out on both of those, but we are optimistic that we will see improvement in the labor market, especially as the factors that have been restricting the willingness of people to return to work dissipate. matt: that is the labor side, touches the inflation debate.

we do see some wage inflation, nothing shocking. what about the rest of inflation? does it look sticky to you? can we rest assured that it is transient -- transitory? dana: you mentioned wage inflation, they were up 5.9% in the second quarter. that is a pretty rapid clip. in the first quarter, we saw the eci pickup substantially, probably again in the second quarter. it is up to businesses whether they will pass these higher costs onto consumers. some businesses are saying that. not all of the inflationary pressures are transitory. those pressures have do with supply chains, backlogs should dissipate as people are able to go back out and engage in in-person services, will shift away from primarily buying goods. that is transitory.

but when it comes to the computer chip shortage, container shortage, when it comes to wages rising and businesses offering incentives to pull in laborers, those prices will probably seep into inflation, consumer prices, and may not dissipate as quickly as the fed hopes they will. matt: which is fine, as long as it does not get to bed, as long as we see real growth to offset that. what are you looking for in terms of gdp growth in 2022, 2023? dana: this year we are looking at 6.6%. next year, probably 3.5%. 2023, settling back to 2.5%, which is what we saw just before the pandemic. getting back to a normal level of activity. there are certainly downside risks. the evolution of the virus itself, even though we may not

see widespread lockdowns again in the u.s., you may have people sequestering themselves, deciding not to engage in interpersonal activities, as the delta variant becomes more prominent in the u.s.. there's also a concern about inflation. how much inflation do we need to see before consumers pull back? in the consumer confidence measure, even though inflationary pressure in the short term are on the rise, it is not stopping people from being optimistic or consuming. also, people have a high savings rate, so that is providing somewhat of an offset to the rising inflation. certainly inflation is a downside risk. in terms of the economy, concerns about renewed rounds of trade wars, industrial policies that limit what kind of trade happens, implications for inflation.

lots of different risks to the outlook we have. matt: we will talk more in this program about trade, so i'm glad you brought that up. thanks very much for your insight, dana peterson, the conference board chief economist. next door is going public with a spac deal with khosla ventures. we will speak to the heads of both companies, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. next door getting ready to go public through a spac deal with khosla ventures. ed hammond has scored a pretty

sweet interview with the heads of both companies. take it away from here. ed: i am joined by sarah frier and vinod khosla. sarah, congratulations. this deal gives you roughly $700 million in proceeds. where will you use that, where does that take the company to? sarah: thanks for having us. nextdoor is already in one and three households in the united states. we are primed and ready for growth. what these proceeds do, they allow us to continue to grow new neighbors on the platform. we are a network effect business. it allows us to keep adding personalization. when you come as a neighbor, it makes you feel like home. and we want to keep investing in businesses, both small, local businesses through local communities, but also our proprietary ad tech stack.

we also know that nextdoor is in every country around the world, so we need to get it there. ed: how does going global look for a company like yours? i wonder how that split between the developed and developing world market? sarah: if you look at today, 2021, we have leaned into the u.s., the u.k., australia, canada, the netherlands. in 2022, we will come back to the rest of europe that we are already launched in but want to go bigger in. france, italy, spain, the nordics. nextdoor is definitely a platform that can work in a young, developing country, or a more mature european country. it's more about getting it started. we know that people want to connect locally. we know that things like local businesses and so on want to be a part of a local platform. ed:vinod, you have talked about

the appeal of working together again, you have an existing relationship going back to square. this deal values nextdoor at roughly four and change. could this be another hundred billion dollar company or potentially bigger? vinod: nextdoor is the neighborhood social network, just like linkedin is the network for professionals. it has strong network effects, and an unusual feature, online and off-line. in terms of potential, we see a lot of potential. most of the growth is ahead of us. there is a huge growth factor in local digital advertising,

but also non-advertising sources of revenue that are possible in the future that excite us. how big can it be? it depends but it is not limited by the opportunity. we think we have a great team here. ed: he makes a good point about the existing opportunities for a company like nextdoor, but its track record for delivering for a long time. why go down the spac route for this, why not traditional ipo or direct listing, when this is already an established business? sarah: what we liked about the spac route was three things. we could spend more of an any longer to time with investors, from picking a spac partner, and we wanted a partner that brought more than just capital to the table. and then going through the process that we just had, spending time with investors,

you can see some of those that we have had. existing investors like tiger. the second reason was deal certainty. when we looked at the timeline, we will spac around the same time that we would have gone with an f1, but now we know the valuations, the proceeds are likely bigger than an ipo scenario. that allows us to start climbing and executing against that. we have money in the balance sheet that we can use today with what we know about what is coming in the fall. and then there is this ability of finding a partner with more than just capital. seven years working with vinod, i came to appreciate his ability to think long term, his inability to get us outside of the comfort zone. he talked about revenue streams that are not just add based.

he will push us on that and we would be better for it. he is also a great recruiter in the valley and beyond. there are many reasons why we did it with vinod khosla and not just any spac. ed: a big part of the e those of the company is this kindness, this aim to be a kind networking company. i wonder how you manage that when you have this trend where social media has become the repository of choice for a lot of venom. how do you maintain that platform without editorializing or potentially censoring your users? sarah: this is at the core of who we are. next door was founded on trust. you have to be confirmed as a real neighbor with a real address. there are no avatars or bots. behavioral science. when people are their real selves and you may bump into them at the local coffee shop, you inherently act better.

that said, we don't wanted to be all saccharine and sweet. we want kind to bring tough conversations to the fore, have people disagree, but not be disagreeable. we can use technology in tandem with behavioral science. we do things like kindness reminders. if you are posting something of that venom that you talked about, we remind you, when you are about to post it will likely be reported. that actually makes people be there better cells, and they think from here, not from here, where their biases reside. we have done a lot to wrap technology into this. it is not about editorializing but rather about how we use technology to help people engage in a much more constructive way, even though sometimes it means a tip down in engagement.

we don't want to fuel the engagement fire at any cost. we believe great growth comes because you have a platform that people feel welcomed onto. ed: before i let you go, quick question for you. the spac boom is that we are seeing slow down. do you think this particular market bubble has run its course? vinod: there are good and bad things about spacs. biotech has always been able to do ipo's without having revenue for 5, 10 years the ability to explain your future, when it is different from the past, which is the case in nextdoor, accelerating growth, is a real benefit to companies when considering an ipo or spac alternative. if you can eliminate the abuses in the spac market, for example, longer lockups, regulation.

companies are held to the same standard as if they were doing and ipo. i think it is a very important tool. the slowdown is helping and will result in better spacs and better behavior. ed: great conversation. thank you for taking the time to join me. with that, matt, over to you. matt: thank you for getting them on. a kindness reminder, think before you post, is something that a lot of people could use. we will come back and continue to talk about what is going on with oil and the markets, what is going on with trade, most importantly. this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets.

i'm matt miller. health officials in israel reporting a decrease in the effectiveness of the pfizer vaccine preventing infections and some thematic illness from the delta variant. let's talk to dr. william moss about this, executive director of the international vaccine access center. i am seeing more and more stories like this and it is kind of sounding the alarm, especially those who are most afraid of the spread of this virus. it seems to me we are still saving people from serious illness, hospitalizations, death, at a very high level. dr. moss: you are exactly right. certainly, there is cause for concern. we know the delta variant is more contagious, more infectious. there is some evidence it causes severe disease.

as you say, increasing evidence that perhaps the current vaccines are less effective. but i think you are right. the evidence thus far suggests our current vaccines do protect against severe disease, will protect someone from hospitalization, will prevent death, and that is the most important thing. but we also want vaccines that prevent transmission, new cases. i think what we will see is there is a reduced effectiveness of these vaccines against a delta variant. the question is how much. matt: and lambda, omega. how much are these vaccines evolving with the virus? dr. moss: there are two ways to combat these different variants with vaccines. one is to give a booster dose of basically the same vaccine, higher antibody levels, and that will probably do a good job against many of these variants.

another strategy is to alter the vaccines, which is fairly straightforward with the mrna vaccines, swapping out the gene for the spike protein, and you have a new vaccine that is more effective. there is already a lot of work in that area. matt: unfortunately, we don't have time or more but i would love to get you back as soon as we can. unfortunately, there will be a need to continue to talk about this. dr. william moss. the johns hopkins school of public health is supported by michael r. bloomberg, the founder of bloomberg lp, the parent of this television program. i'm matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪

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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news.mark't

for elsa in south florida. tropical storm elza is inspected to gain strength as it heads up the golf. right now, top windsor at 60 miles per hour. elsa could bring up to a four foot surge along parts of the ford coast. six to eight inches of rain throughout the state. governor ron desantis is urging residents to get ready. another round of heat bearing down on the united states west will put further pressure on electric grids and raise fire risks across the region before reaching a peak by weeks end. temperatures across the northern california area, parts of it are expected to raise 15 to 20 degrees above normal. forecasters say fresno could reach 109 degrees fahrenheit in sacramento 106 fahrenheit by the weekend. the republican congressman who gave a fiery speech hours behind -- hours before the deadly riot

at the u.s. capitol says he can't be sued over it. he is responding to a lawsuit from a fellow congressman in california. it accuses him and former president trump and others of inside the riot -- of inciting a riot six month ago today. in a speech on january 6, he told the crowd quote today is the day american patriots start taking down names. ". the price of west texas intermediate oil has not been this high since 2014. a search today after a fight between saudi arabia and the united arab emirates blocked the supply increase. it left the global oil market without extra supplies were lex month and have been counting on. -- where next months and had been counting on. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on bloomberg quick take, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. amanda: i'm amanda lenk, welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: i'm matt miller. we welcome you here at this hour, the top stories we are following for you from around the world. china clamps down on company data and offshore lifting. we bring you the latest as company sink amid the crackdown. we will have more analysis on the developing situation within china and the outlook for relations with the u.s.. greg allen, president of the u.s. china business council. plus, we discuss the state of a restaurant industry as the service sector and struggles --

the service sector struggles to find employees. and, amanda, i am so glad to have you back. amanda: it is great to be back, matt. and, it is an interesting day. postholiday, you think it would be quieter but look no further than the energy sector and opec, the yields are also playing a pretty big role here across that s&p 500, pretty broad-based decline. in every category. tech and financials not helping at all. energy is leading the way. tech upsetting the overall momentum. unlike energy, which in toronto is a real drag of the market. still elevated levels. for what it's worth, that price

of oil reacting in a negative way to a vacuum that traders are now dealing with. matt, in terms of what happens here, and the absence of agreement, how much leakage and the concern will be that there will be a different view among those numbers about what the right level should be? in fact even with the price should be. uncertainty has volatility in oil. matt: absolutely. look, the uae has a lot more power. saudi arabia has a little less power after some of the controversies it has endured. but, the question is, do we now see a rebalancing of opec? or, even worse, does this bring more noncompliance among opec members? do you see it unraveling? all of the questions to be seem to be only bearish and not

bullish, the price. that's what i was surprised to see it jump so high. amanda: we should note, we did get a comment from the white house on this. this is usually relevant. input costs as we know, that factors in the gasoline prices. saying they are watching closely, they had a positive reaction to what they had seen. maybe that puts a better spin on it, there will be some kind of outcome here of at least certainty. as we all know, those u.s. shale players are playing a pretty big role in what was happening to opec and the integration. they are not as strong as they once were. matt: definitely not. i sure the white house would be -- look, you would expect a free-market capitalist government to applaud the weakening of a cartel. it's just not really in the interest, at least

theoretically, philosophically of the united states. on the other hand, maybe it keeps the oil market in some oil. -- in some order. amanda: always an interesting debate, isn't it? we are also watching, of course, shares of chinese listed companies very much and focus today. dave wilson, our stock of the hour. and some of the other names that are separating here over the crackdown on regulatory issues. dave? dave:. absolutely. front center in terms of the decline but we are also seeing the investment banks that led the company's $4.4 billion u.s. initial public offering last week. specifically goldman sachs, morgan stanley, jp morgan. they did not make all that much money in terms of revenue from this deal relative to other initial public offerings. you talk about 2% of the total

rate, that is how much they end up with. not a lot to put aside for future litigation. these three firms have been at the forefront when it comes to investment banking fees, last year, this year pulled off altogether. you're talking about a top three among u.s. investment banks. so, they do have a little bit of reserve to deal with whatever fallout there might be from the sudden reversal thanks to the chinese government and its efforts to look at the network security and then pull the app from app stores. you look at investment banking fees, whether it is underwriting , those three firms are really at the forefront of the business. now, the question is whether it comes back to bite them given the sudden reversal. matt: the wall street journal

reporting the chinese government advised them not to go ahead with the ipo. they did so anyway. at least among, in the chinese media, this was pretty widespread. whereas, the u.s. media, it was not so clear-cut. more than the decline among deities investment bank. then the adr. dave: you look at what is going on with bond yields, they are coming down. not a good sign in terms of banks ability to make money from lending. that is one piece of it, when you consider the 10-year treasury yield or any other events. beyond that, you look at what has been going on with stock and bond volatility. last week, the lowest level since february of last year before rebounding a bit today.

when you have lower volatility, you have fewer opportunities for these banks to make money from their trading desk, which is been a source of learning and revenue over the last several quarters. matt: dave, thank you for joining us on what has been an exciting story. amanda, you come back on a tuesday in a four-day week and you think probably going to be a slow news day. well, it's not. the oil story keeps on going, the chinese stocks, look like pulled the rug out from under investors. and then, a big tech crackdown the gives us more to talk about. what it means for beijing's relationship with washington next. we will discuss this with craig allen of the u.s. china business council. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. turning back to the top story of the day, china issued a sweeping morning, tightening data security and overseas listing just days after didi's contentious decision to go public and the u.s.. joining us now is craig allen, thanks so much for joining us. let me first ask you about this specific case. i think it fits into a broader picture. my initial thought was it make sense if you are worried about data security, you don't have foreign ownership of these countries. i spoke with a couple this

morning, they said don't be so naive. this is about power. just getting control back. what you think? >> the specific action taken was taken by the cyber administration of china. that is cybersecurity, propaganda or information. organization. rather than securities organization. there is no evidence that there was coordination between the securities regulators in the cyber regulators. so, whether or not this was a coincidence, i don't know. but i have no reason to think that. rather, it looks like a crackdown on cybersecurity, particularly cybersecurity associated with vehicle and transportations. in this from what we know now, it is limited to that.

as we also know, none of this happens in a vacuum. this is not a one-way treat -- one-way street. china is retaliating. a multi-year trade war, the continues. is this a sign that things are going to deteriorate before they get better? and what does that mean for not just investors but the u.s. economy, and businesses that rely on free-flowing trade? right now -- >> right now it is true we are in a period in between. the biden administration is conducting an overall review of its trade policy. that said, there have been discussions between janet yellen and her counterpart, and the

secretary of commerce with her counterpart. it is unclear if they can make progress. right now, we are in a delicate period between where companies face a lot of uncertainty. i am hopeful that those preliminary conversations between the incoming biden administration in the chinese will continue. so businesses have more certainty. right now it is very difficult to predict either tariffs, and even more difficult on the technology side where the two countries are going. probably the most difficult conundrum that companies face is data. that is the most ticketless situation that the diplomats and

regulators face. matt: in terms of the effects of the trump trade war on the u.s. economy, how you think history is going to write this? and, what does president biden -- what is president biden going to do differently? >> $1.7 trillion was taken off, the imf has done good studies. suggesting as much a 75% globally might be affected. about a quarter million u.s. jobs were lost at the peak, many of those have since returned. the overall effect on the u.s. economy has certainly been very negative. thus we need a little bit more stability, we need to get rid of the tariffs. we need a sound basis upon which we can move forward on

technology cooperation and competition with the chinese. we have none of those factors in place now. amanda: of course for the other countries who trade with china and the u.s., for a little while, this would have looked like an opportunity. if they want to engage in tariff war's, there is an open door to trade with china. once it becomes a tech or, once it becomes pick a side, gets more complicated for a country like canada or germany. how do you think the rest of the world should play it is? you have to pick a side and what might become a real division on tech lines. >> i don't think we will get to a place where you have to pick a side because both countries are too big and too important. so, if it comes to that, countries like germany or canada will pick both sides. other words, u.s. operations in

china operations, they may operate somewhat independently. indeed, we are saying that an american tech companies, information flows are bifurcated and channeled so as not to violate laws in china or the united states. no nature company that i know of is retreating, from either come tree -- from either country. both are too big. amanda: good point. great to have you with us. good perspective from the president of the u.s. china business council. we appreciate your time. next, we get a read on the state of the restaurant businesses, stay with us. ♪

amanda: this is bloomberg markets. i am amanda lange alongside matt miller. what does that say about her optimism about the state of the industry? thank you very much for being with us. let's start with how this happened, which as i understand, your previous location, the rent was raised and you moved next door and opened a different restaurant. what are you hoping to do here? >> i am feeling very optimistic. i think as everybody knows, especially now more than ever, very excited to open a new restaurant concept here. i think it is going to be tremendous. matt: it is definitely a vote of

optimism. what can we expect in terms of the dining experience? is it going to be different considering what we have just been through? do you want to give people a sense of a turn -- a return to normalcy? >> i don't think there is ever going to be a full return to normalcy. it will absolutely echo restaurants past. i think the city, especially me, i know i am definitely craving a place to go out, get dressed up and really dying. in the past year, we have all been surviving on take out. and in our pajamas. right now is a really great time. matt: i miss listserv

desperately. just because from our studios, i could go down a back stairway, come in through the kitchen and feel like the coolest dude on the planet. the food, compared to what i'm expecting from you, what are you doing: the early? >> the menu is french. i am very excited to cook my way through the provinces of france. a lot of americans think of french cuisine, they think parents but there is so much more than that. i am chinese as well so i did take a lot of ingredients from my childhood. and treated them in a french way. it is very exciting. amanda: very quickly, are you

having trouble getting staff? >> i was so fortunate in the fact that i retained my entire staff. we are very much a family. we have all been working together. i was able to retain everybody. i hear it is hard out there right now. matt: are you betting that you are going to be able to go on, open, have diners in? or, are you worried there will be some other kind of lockdown snafu. >> i think we are absolutely keeping our eyes on the delta variant. we were fortunate in the fact that we made the decision as a team that we were all going to be vaccinated. we felt it was important out of respect to each other and our guests that each and every one of our employees did that. additionally we will be requiring that our diners are all vaccinated.

but, we are keeping a close eye on any cdc recommendations. as we recover, as our country comes out of this. truly everybody's health and safety is the top of mind. amanda: with safety in mind, we hope you will let matt come through the kitchen because we now know it makes them feel supercool and important. matt: jeff, thank you so much for joining us. -- chef, thank you so much for joining us. i just went to point out i am fully vaccinated and i am flying back to new york next week. we will go about -- go down there, in the interest of journalism have a nice candlelight dinner and report back. this is bloomberg. ♪

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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news.

president biden plans to make comments later this hour about the coronavirus pandemic. after falling short of the goal of at least 70% of adults getting at least one shot by the fourth of july. that number stands at 67% according to the latest data from the cdc. the president is expected to announce the expansion of mobile clinics to get more americans vaccinated. meanwhile, the benefits of messenger rna covid-19 vaccines clearly outweigh the risks despite heart complications seen in a relatively small number of young men. that is according to a new report from the cdc. vaccines made by moderna and pfizer are the only mnra inoculations authorized in the united states. justin trudeau was appointed as the country's first ever indigenous governor general. the prime minister told reporters today the queen eliz