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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  July 8, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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>> good morning from london, i'm dani burger. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." reflation bets sour amid hawk is nauseous from the fed. officials signally could come sooner than expected. going symmetrical, the ecb plans to raise its inflation target 2%.
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that will still have room to overshoot when needed. the euro now looks for direction. and more uncertainty. japanese media reports events in tokyo may have to take place without spectators. global pandemic deaths top 4 million. substantial further progress, certainly the three words capturing the attention of not just the markets but substantial further progress in the quest to bring football home. but not quite the celebration if your jay powell because they do not see substantial for the progress being made. that is not happening yet but they are starting to discuss tapering. if you're in the bond market, you are vindicated after that intense buying we've seen throughout the curve with a 30 -- 30 year yield dropping below 2% and the 10 year yield
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dropping below 1.3% yesterday. the question that comes to the fore was china and the ecb started to signal or dovish news is how we reach the peak. if your stephen major at hsbc you certainly believe we are getting closer to a peak, at least when it comes to treasury yields. he says the market is increasingly seeing that yields may have already peaked this year. reflation has largely been priced in and the bond market is looking ahead to what comes next. let's go quickly back to our market board this morning. this shows you some of the buying in the 10 year yield continuing but china bond markets are also seeing some intense buying, nearly four basis points drop in the 10 year yield with china signaling they may be cutting the rrr's more support coming to the economy. finally were looking at a hong kong market that is getting crushed in -- looking close to a
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bear market, down more than 2% with china continuing to crackdown on ipos and data when it comes to tech companies. u.s. equity futures softer by .2%. let's break through the noise and get more on the central bank story and what it means for the market. mark joins us this morning. a tall order, but let's start with china and more of the support they're giving to the economy. what does that mean for the global reflation trade? mark: quite a lot, possibly more than the fed, as you were saying. it's a bit of a surprise to people because the central bank in china, up until just recently really had been giving the signal that they are pretty happy with monetary policy. being a little bit tighter than some of the other major central banks and they had no plans to deviate from that. but the national security people in china suggesting that is not quite right, that the chinese
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economy could be slowing a bit in the second half of the year. they are suggesting the central bank becomes a bit more accommodating toward small and medium-size financial entities so there is now speculation that a rrr cut will be coming. it will probably be a targeted one if it does come. there are different tiers of reserve ratios in china and some specific to the smaller banks. whatever is done, it will certainly be a positive thing, but people are concerned that china is worried that both may not be that great in the second half of the year. dani: we always get meets signals when it comes to data out of china, but is it enough to support the substantial drop we are seeing in chinese bond yields so far? mark: we seem recent pmi data that has been soft from china. they have dropped quite
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substantially, particularly in the private sector analysis. their clashing reports dropping substantially in the most recent reporting, so that was a bit of a shock to people. obviously we're seeing signs that the rest of asia is closing down, similar lockdowns outside around japan, south korea, indonesia and malaysia, the key trading people for china in the region. economies are not doing so well there. dani: thank you so much, mark cranfield. rejoined by a global macro economist at the lead -- fidelity international. thanks for joining us this morning. china used to tell us something about mobile growth. his china starting to get concerns about the pace and path of their economy? do we need to be worried when it comes to the entirety of the macro picture? anna: i think so.
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china has been a standout this year with a more bullish stance and credit inflows of the past few months. those are the leading indicators for china growth. are starting to see signs of a slowdown and there are concerns. china drives global growth, together with the u.s.. i think if we do get the rrr rate cut, especially if it is growth other than targeted, that could potentially be good news for credit growth and growth later this year. dani: with that in mind and potentially concern coming out of china, given the balance of risk where we are at, the past couple of weeks it had been dominated by a more hawkish conversation, especially coming out of the fed. has that narrative shifted
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toward the doves? anna: we had the minute yesterday and it seems to me that the estimate there was very hawkish. there is still a sense of urgency to start tapering very quickly. so there's clearly some concern about little or no substantial progress yet. also there are concerns about inflation but it seems the consensus is those pressures are still transitory. so there's a hawkish shift, but i would say there's no huge sense of urgency to move very quickly. a lot depends on inflation noises.
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dani: have you gotten any clear signals from? ? that what signals are you getting from it? anna: we think it is clear that peak growth in the u.s. has been reached. we are seeing signs of high levels but overall levels of growth remain high. i guess it had been more surprising on the downside but nothing to me really concerns us about the state of the u.s. economy or the global economy. and growth momentum from the u.s., so that level of momentum could not be sustained. dani: so if the rate of change is not as strong is that once
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was, does that mean the reflation trade is over? are we not as interested in cyclicals from here on out? anna: the jury is still out in terms of the transitory nature of inflation, particularly in the u.s.. a number of factors such as wage growth in the labor market, particularly in the lower sectors could last a bit longer and that could potentially affect expectations and that could push inflation higher than currently expected by the markets this year and next your. i also think the transition that the country has been talking about is not very far away. we've seen that kind of sustainability pressure arising putting up your -- up or pressure on inflation globally.
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we think there's some chance of inflation being consistent. it might not be clear in the next months but it might be clear by the end of the year or next your when those pressures continue. dani: is there a possibility for pressures to come in, and what does the tenure yield below 1.4% and a 30 year yield below 2%, what do those signals from the bond market tell you? anna: the bond market is very much in the account and we need more time to see whether those pressures are persistent. we think the expectation is very strong. so if we do get significant wage growth in the labor market, if you do get some growth potential in common pricing whether
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implicit or explicit, inflation expectations will adjust. so to us, it's perhaps too early for the bond market to understand what is going on, but we do see yields higher, not that much higher but we are coming out of the debt burden everywhere. it seems right now they are a bit too low for a backdrop over the next 6-12 months. dani: we have more to dig stay with us to discuss fidelity international. that's get over to the first word news with annabelle droulers. annabelle: former president donald trump is suing tech giants facebook, twitter, and alphabet along with their chief executives. from says the lawsuits or a defense of his first amendment rights and seeks to restore his
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social media accounts along with punitive damages. all three companies either banned or suspended his accounts after the january right at the u.s. capitol. written's national security advisor will investigate the takeover of the biggest semiconductor plant. it makes chips for the current 5g and facial recognition. lawmakers say the deal could pose a national security threat. england's 55 year wait reached the final of a majors -- major soccer tournament is over. 66,000 fans had -- he scored on the rebound. england will face italy in sunday's finals, also at wimbley. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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this is bloomberg. dani: annabelle droulers, thank you so much. i'm sure a lot of people coming into the office in u.k. are not feeling their best after last night's victory. coming up, aiming for 2%. ecb policy makers have agreed on new inflation target. that exclusive story is next. this is bloomberg.
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm dani burger in london where just gone past 6:15 a.m. bloomberg has learned the ecb policymakers have agreed to raise their inflation goal to 2%. also, a lot of room to overshoot. changes part of the biggest
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strategic overhaul since 2003 and could also give officials justification for sustaining altar loose monetary policy for longer as the economy recovers from the pandemic. for a while, the ecb had been pretty isolated and looking for something less than 2% and it comes to inflation. but in your mind has now changed if they are going to target 2% and allow inflation to move higher at some point from their? anna: a very specific inflation target, and clearly what this has done is anchored the expectations at very low levels. the target has not been achieved in the same period of time for a while. of course there are fears that low inflation expectations can
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change following the japanese example. so they decided to revise the target. we believe it's not going to be like the fed case, but flexibility around the circumstance allowing overshoot and under shoots and a strong reaction to both. dani: how much higher are those expectations? we heard over the weekend that not only should inflation be allowed to go over 2%, but it needs to at some point. are we really going to get there? what is the likelihood that we can see higher elation in the euro zone? anna: that is the main question, you can change the target but you need some force to drive that inflation.
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there are strong reports in europe and right now the worry about inflation spikes is not a strong as in the u.s. because there is clear evidence that the inflation spike is dropping in europe. there is some hope for more fiscal stimulus, effectively implemented could potentially boost inflation expectations more structurally over the medium term. europe and the ecb are talking about pushing inflation through higher carbon pricing over the next few years. so there is some hope, there are
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factors that could boost expectations, but changing the central bank target to a slightly higher level is very unlikely. dani: if i can shift a little bit, we got some lines from the pboc this morning, concerns about cryptocurrency threatening financial stability. i know in your research you highlight the possibility for crypto volatility to spread out into broader markets. what is that mechanism for contagion, should that actually occur? anna: i would say that generally we are concerned about growth in the market, a lot of times out of china there is some risk and volatility exposes markets to
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big asset classes. it's not enough to cause potential shock but it's just a sign that we are in that territory where things are getting frothy. a more interesting question for central banks including the pboc is how it will continue competing with central-bank é9ñfr9ñkp)sóurrencies that are planning too'(jut)s that's one reason why central banks have gone for it because they are potentially threatening financial stability and power of the central banks. dani: new we also need to be worried about behavioral trends in the market, things like meme stocks alongside cryptocurrencies? is that concerning?
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dani: i think is just the time, there is some talk that things will get unwound. i don't think it's a big concern. it's quite likely right now given the environment that suggest it's unwise. dani: thanks for joining us this morning. coming up, reports that japan's government will declare a virus emergency in tokyo that will be enforced during the olympics, likely banning spectators from the game. more on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> next year we will probably still have the stronger recovery momentum, so i feel very optimistic for next year. >> what we are doing now is monitoring day today, and we will respond the moment in which we see we have inflation properly under control. >> everybody is watching out for the rate of vaccination. dani: some of bloomberg tv's big
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name guests on the prospect for the emerging market recovery. let's get the latest from japan, where local media there are reporting that fans will be banned from the olympics. sophie, the state of emergency, what does this mean for the olympics? could it mean that it doesn't go ahead at all? sophie: this is the fourth state of emergency that tokyo will go in since the start of the pandemic. it's not a hard lockdown iq might see in europe, but it does mean restrictions of people. it's very unlikely the olympics will be canceled at this point. we have just over two weeks to go, and a state of emergency over the coronavirus was well within plan b for the organizers. ideally they wanted to have some fans in the stands but they are
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unlikely now to hold events with any fans at all. the concern is that you have all the local fans and people moving around in tokyo and the movement of people since the last that of emergency on june 20 has seen increase in cases in the capital and that's what the authorities are keen to avoid. we should see a decision on most -- both of those things later today, possibly tomorrow. dani: as we were talking, ago during the break, this isn't the first state of emergency. what is behind the decision from the japanese government to issue it? sophie: there are those rising cases and also pressure on the hospital systems here in tokyo. those are the metrics the experts advising the government are looking at when it comes to either the state of emergency or emergency measures we've been in for some time.
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the government really has a lot of pressure on them for the general election coming just a couple of months after the olympics. public opinion on the olympics, the handling of the virus has been sensitive over the past few months. the prime minister's approval rating has definitely taken a dive over the past year. the government really cannot afford to mess this up. that is what is behind their decision to tone down the fan element of the olympics and strike that balance between keeping everybody safe and having a big olympic party. dani: sophie, thank for staying on top of the story for us from tokyo. coming up, food prices are on the rise. u.n. believes it's a short-term shock caused by the pandemic and extreme weather but many major banks see it as the start of a new super cycle. we will have more on that next.
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dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. i'm dani burger. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." here are today's top stories. relation bet our amid some hawkish noises from the fed. officials signaled tapering could come sooner than expected. going symmetrical. bloomberg learns the ecb plans to raise its inflation target to 2%. that allows room to overshoot when needed.
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the euro looking for direction. more olympic uncertainty. japanese media reports events in tokyo may have to take place without spectators. global pandemic deaths top 4 million. good morning, everyone. happy thursday to you. it is the day after a victory when it comes to english football. some people not feeling their best or most awake this morning, but the markets are certainly awake. are we seeing more hawkish tilt from the fed? is it business as usual? our last guest says it's not that hawkish when we are seeing 10-year gilts hold on to those lower movements we've seen over the past two days. still below 1.31%. intensifying the chinese bonds with the rrr possibly cut.
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at the same time a brutal day in hong kong, trading equity market moving lower by 2.4%. will we see a bear market in hong kong stocks because of the action china is taking against big tech? certainly seeing equities move lower when it comes to the u.s. futures session as well. back to europe, where bloomberg has learned to use -- ecb policy makers have agreed to raise their reflation goal to 2%. also allowing room to overshoot. it was part of the biggest strategic overhaul since 2003. it could also give officials the justification for sustaining ultra loose monetary policy for longer as the economy recovers from the pandemic. bloomberg spoke with a former central-bank economist. >> is quite important before the exit from pandemic measures.
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we have a little bit of time because of the new variant, we slow down the exit but it's important to conclude the difficulty of the ecb that it's not like current monetary policy where it is sufficient for the majority to take decisions. here we talk about strategy which means that it gives the governors a kind of veto power. i cannot imagine a situation where you conclude a review and get -- one governor will say it's a fundamental aspect of the strategy. it also means there will be no mechanistic formula as we have seen and discussed in the united states, for example, that would be more generic. dani: joining us now to discuss
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this further is our western european central banks editor paul gordon. a fantastic scoop from overnight. what do we know so far about this new 2% inflation target? paul: many people, it won't seem a big change. the new goal of 2% compares with the old goal of close to 2%. , for most policymakers, seemed to lead to pressure to raise interest rates to soon. 2% was effectively a cap, and to some 1.8% was a cap. it's a significant change, as you said that could lead to the policy being looser for longer. compared with the fed, which is
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pursuing average inflation targeting, so there is a mechanical process by which inflation rises above 2% for a period of 10 so the averages that too. that probably won't be the case for the ecb. dani: we don't know the full details but we will get the full strategic review out later today. what are we expecting from it? paul: quite a lot. that formulation on how you determine the most critical thing for investors and for the credibility of the new inflation goal. but there is much more in this. another important aspect is climate, there is likely to be something about how we all contribute to climate change, and the extent to which that is incorporated into monetary policy tools is one to watch there. we may well get a change in the inflation manager -- measure
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with the current measure provides for the cost of home ownership and that has been an issue for the ecb and one that came up in discussions with the public in the run-up during this review. so those are two major changes. the rest will be more about the thinking about how the economy works, quite a lot of information when the results come out. dani: thanks for bringing us that important part of the story even before we get the official release. thanks to paul gordon. moving onto the you in and their food and agriculture organization which is due to release its food process index later. that is expected to show these vital commodities play a large part in that increasing inflation story we've been discussing. the you and blames rising prices on a short-term shock caused by the pandemic and extreme weather as well. we also have banks like goldman sachs and morgan stanley that are seeing the start of a new
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food price super cycle. we're joined by megan. what has been driving these food prices higher continuously over the past year? megan: the yuan food price index has been gaining now for 12 months in a row. there are a few things behind that like china, and there has also been bad weather and economies reopening around the world as covid restrictions ease. we will see whether the rally continued in june. dani: so we are looking for the rally to continue. what other signals might we also get from the report today? megan: we have seen some signs of easing crop prices.
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tfnd%kpm may. approach across the northern hemisphere, helping replenish the price a little bit. really all eyes are on the whether the next few months. we have dairy, meat, vegetables and sugar all factoring in. dani: it makes me think of the fourth of july window biden administration said the fourth of july meal is now $.16 cheaper. politicians are acutely concerned with what it means for consumers. if we do have food inflation reaching an all-time high, what will it mean ultimately for consumers? megan: the index is tracking prices and it takes time for that to feed through to grocery costs. it doesn't automatically
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translate into a higher price but if it decreases a good start to help some of -- see some of the inflationary pressures around the world, especially for countries that are dependent on food imports. and likewise if it continues there's more pressure on countries from kenya to mexico so it is a problem facing a wide geographic reach. dani: megan, thank you very much. let's get over to the first word news with annabelle droulers. annabelle: alphabets google is being sued by three dozen u.s. states alleging abuse of power. the states allege google thwarted opposition, forcing developers to use the google play store to reach users. the company says the lawsuit it's it wrong and ignores that
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google used apple for developers and consumers. a study by bank of england said companies perform better when more women are in senior positions but that too few are being promoted to the highest ranks. women's roles were down more than 20%. however, there is a glass ceiling. researchers say they use regulatory information. the former south african president has been taken into custody to begin serving a 15 month jail sentence after failing in a last-ditch attempt to avoid incarceration. he said to have handed himself in prior to mid light -- midnight deadline. a fintech company climbed 10% in his debut following a direct
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listing on the london stock exchange, the largest such deal ever. the money transfer company was given a market value of a .70 5 billion pounds, more than double the valuation in july 2020 fundraising. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thank you so much, annabelle droulers in hong kong. as finance ministers and central bankers gather in venice in the next few days for the g20 finance meeting, the global minimum tax of 15% agreed at the g7 will be one of the main topics that will be on the table during this meeting. but is this tax rate really a revolution? >> with pandemic stimulus plans and the trillions of dollars,
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governments have a new mantra for how they might pay for it all. >> for too long, there has been a global race to the bottom in corporate taxes. >> an income rate of 15% is an interesting and solid basis. >> last month, g7 countries agreed to a global minimum corporate tax of 15%, what they called a landmark agreement. last week the he managed to get 130 countries and jurisdictions on board. the current goal for implementation could be as soon as 2023. the current plan would bring in an extra $150 billion a year. >> there is the absence of a solution in trade wars that would harm innovation. >> technically it might not be such a historic crackdown. the 15% level would be higher than ireland's 12.5, but lower
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than all g7 and most other e.u. nations except hungary. ireland and hungary have not yet joined the plan. it means our own and is likely to remain the go tech -- the go to for big tech in europe. for some, is not ambitious enough. >> with 15%, there is still a big drop ahead of us. we need a minimum corporate tax rate that is close to the level where we are now on average. that would mean around 25%. >> countries like the uae which is not part of the g20 might choose to be exempt. however, tax havens including a network of british overseas territories like bermuda, cayman islands and the isle of man are under pressure as britain just hosted the g7 meeting. for the proximate $7 billion
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going through those islands, it might be the end of the game if global powers find a way to not only agree on but implement a 15% level tax. dani: some of the hurdles to a global minimum corporate tax ahead of the g20 meeting tomorrow. coming up, we look at crypto, pump and dom, going digital. crypto scammers are ripping off billions of dollars every year. but regulators are not batting an eyelid. we look at the wild west of crypto scams, next. ♪♪ this is bloomberg.
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm dani burger in london. an estimated 10,000 new types of crypto coins have been minted
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this year alone. that's as countless people pollen into tokens with the hopes of making it big. what is also big is the sheer number of scams taking place, with boom went of dollars being taken annually. most of the scams are so small in size that the authorities don't even bat an eye. allowing swindlers to simply disappear. for more on the wild west of crypto rejoin by no one else but joanna. what are the sorts of things that are happening in these many scams? >> is pretty amazing how much is going on. you have people who get in and get out when the prices go up and leave everyone else to deal with what is probably lower price. you have honeypots for people will put something in the code that limits trading for a certain amount of time so the
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person who created the coin is able to take advantage of the high price. all sorts of things that are happening here and it is fairly easy to create a coin and easy to hype it online and on social media. a lot of people are trying to get in and this is the result. dani: if you look at the different crypto red its, there are so many of these coins always being posted. is this a new phenomenon? why is this all of a sudden now becoming a big deal? >> is becoming bigger because people are more into crypto the last year. people think i could get in and do that. once they are in, they think they can do other things. it is being talked up by a lot of people. there has been a big retail trading bench. it has gone into crypto and people are trying to take
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advantage of it. but they can also be vulnerable to these sorts of things. dani: are the regulators going to step in at any point, or is it just going to come down to individual investors putting up a guard against these things? >> the question would be what could the regulators do, what procedures could they take, how could they protect people from it? but investors can take some steps. for instance, one find recently that investing a lot of these things, they wait for something to have been around for about a year before they will invest in it. they also say they check to make sure it has been audited by a quality third-party firm. they confirm they are experience and not anonymous. so there are steps you can take, but a lot of people want to get into these things and some people think it is worth the
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risk of losing a little bit of money if they can take advantage of big price gains in other cases. dani: thanks so much. ú0l= i have no idea what that is but it looks really cool. thank you so much. coming up, something a little bit different and it's back to the office or not. a su2-) 80% of u.k. finance firms plan to take a hybrid approach to work. that story for you next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe."
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i'm dani burger in london. or than 80% of u.k. finance firms are planning to take a hybrid approach to work. that means employees will be allowed to work part time at home and at the office. that's according to a survey of banks, insurers, and money managers. citi yesterday saying expects almost all employees in the unit -- u.s. and the u.k. to return to the office at least part of the time by september. so we have this latest fromciti . they have been sounding like they are taking a different approach from the rest of wall street. >> that is absolutely right. jane fraser is the most flexible working boss on wall street. she's taken a different stand to her peers on wall street. those guys have talked about working from home as an aberration, is something that people want to be in the office.
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what she has taken a different approach and is now saying they expect almost all their employees in the u.s. and u.k. to return to the office at least part time by september, as the health data improves. even though the delta variant is causing some issues, things have and generally settle down. citi acknowledging that it is a transition from any and they will continue to be flexible to support colleagues. one thing to notice while they haven't mandated vaccines or anything like that, they have said that if you are vaccinated, you won't have to wear a mask in the office and will have a little more flexibility when you are in the office. dani: do we have an idea on how many staffers will take them up on this? there is a concern that if you're not in the office that maybe your career will suffer. do we have a sense of that sort of sentiment? >> that is a big question and
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there is an issue around women, a concern that many women, more women than men might take up the flexible working arrangement and then get left behind when promotions or pay rises are being discussed. what we know is that citi is expecting about 30% of its staff in the u.s. to take up the offer to come back to the office. it is helping to bring back additional staff at the end of the summer. but jane fraser is someone who has shown she can be flexible on this and i'm sure that as these issues arrives, it's something she will take care to address. remember she has set out a more flexible approach so she has shown a willingness to listen to staff and balance it out. dani: how would you compare that with what we're hearing out of the u.k.? we've talked about the cultural difference in the past.
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is that divide getting more stark as we normalize in terms of the pandemic? >> it certainly seems to. the european banks and u.k. financial services firms are lining more with citi in that sense. as you said a survey shows that more than 80% of u.k. financial services firms are expected to take a hybrid approach to work. among them standard charter, deutsche bank, they have come out and talked about hybrids. credit suisse has gone as far as to call it new ways of working. the hope from those banks that are be more flexible is that it will help them attract and retain staff. dani: of course we always have an acronym to claim what is going on. as we head into the end of the
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show, we've seen more risk off moves in the market. stocks lower, bonds higher. that is it for us at "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the european open is up next with anna and mark. this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now,
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>> good morning. welcome to the european open. i'm anna edwards live in london. mark cudmore joins me in singapore to take us through the market action. the cash trade is less than an hour away. reflation bets sour amid hawkish noises from the fed. officials single taper -- signal tapering could come sooner than expected. bloomberg learns the

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