>> if you have confidence in the economic outlook, equities are usually the best place to be. >> i think the market is reassessing how confident it is in the growth outlook. >> growth acceleration is getting shifted from the u.s. >> the data is good right now. the problem is it is not good enough. >> the fed will end up doing what it has to do but it may be late. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: wanted: 20 -- 1.25. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity market, 4295 on the s&p. lisa is out of the building. romaine bostick helping us get through the price action.

here is the price action. a little bounce in the equity market. still down 1.2% on the s&p. 1.25 on the 10 year yield. tom: huge news flow this morning and important voices joining us. michael shaoul in moments. the range bound on equities is there. we've not breached the range of the recent moon shot up. a little bit of stability. fixed income should be the point of analysis. jonathan: look at the curve. 1.05. in five basis points. tom: coming in five basis points. it is amazing how the whole inflation easter -- how the whole inflationista thing has been given up. it is a huge surge in repo and the idea of pushing out the yield curve into the price up, you'll down.

not talking and i've -- not talking enough about price up. the ecb concerns the inflation goal is raised to 2%. the new inflation goal at 2%. this introduction of tolerance. tom: i have not done a lot of work on this but today is a good morning for john taylor of stanford university. the keyword as you just mentioned is symmetric. that is laced with a cultural history of the ecb and european finance. jonathan: let's be clear. we are trimming the bundesbank swings. 10 years ago you would not have had the hikes of 2011. where we are now, if that is your goal, you need to change her policy because you're not forecasting inflation near to that. tom: as jean-claude trichet, if

you're listening dial 1-800 surveillance. now we cannot underplay in america, this is a historic moment for europe. jonathan: they have added climate change considerations. headlights coming up from the ecb. i understand we will hear from christine lagarde in about 90 minutes. we need to reflect on this equity market. the s&p is more than 1% lower. in the bond market or break of 1.25. right now 1.2562. this bond market right now, how it is set up on 10, unreal, on the curve, it makes the cyclical trade quite difficult. romaine: it makes it quite difficult. the bond market has been the traffic light for the equity market. the bond market got it right when it led what front run what

it up being a massive equity rally. the signals we are getting are showing you the trepidation is justified in you already saw that in the cyclical. folks have been piling out of the cyclicals for the last four weeks. the underperformance of the russell is very significant. we have not opened lower on the s&p 500 for three weeks. jonathan: what you're alluding to is important. this idea is the move has not developed over the last week. it started from the end of q1. breakevens topped out in may. he started to see this bill through the equity market in the last four weeks or so. tom: it is filling through equities. i would say bonds are more adjusted. we talked about convexity. i do not see convexity in the equity market. i see a 1.7% pullback. we are nowhere near a correction. romaine: nowhere near a

correction but people that back into real yields and -1%, and you have to ask yourself what does that say about sentiment about whether it is the cost of money and how does that feed into the sentiment about the growth story? people are not necessarily rushing for the exit but this is a big reassessment of whether you stand at 4300 and say that is the mountaintop. tom: help me out with owner occupied housing. i look at the way hungarian mortgages are based, the oddity of the english market. how big is it that the deal we are doing, they will bring that into their inflation? jonathan: in many ways the criticism of the central banks is they have never taken account for how people experience everyday prices and how the inflation numbers they look at our divorce from the inflation we experience. allow me to go through the headlines. 2% inflation goal over the

medium term for the ecb. you throw in the climate change considerations in monetary policy, that is something president lagarde will be talking about for a while. recommending owner occupied housing to be included in inflation. this new strategy will start july 22, the next ecb meeting. i wonder whether they have to recalibrate policy to meet these new goals. let's bring in michael shaoul. let's start with the price action. down 56 on the s&p. yields in six basis points. what does that tell you? michael: you have had a correction in cyclical equities that goes back to may 15. a lot of things which are down 10% or 50% since then, not tragic in terms of year-to-date performance. growth has been able to ignore that for most of that time. i think that is the gap between growth and cyclicality has gone too far. that portion of the s&p probably

has to come down now. i think the bond market, yields are being corrected, bond prices have been breaking out. there were obvious technical levels. the 200 day and the 30 year both got beached. when you see technicals around the world you will get volatility like this. tom: let's do the cliche of the glass half-full. is the glass half growthy or do you suggest some form of growth slowdown, the fear of stagflation? michael: i think it depends on what you're looking at. there is a threat to the pure reopening trade, some of the covid sensitive sectors have a harder summer than people are hoping for. if you're looking at heavy growth, the durable goods

economy. all of that looks to have momentum behind it. you will get periods of setbacks and equity markets because that is what they do. i still think we are in the middle innings of that portion of the global economy. romaine: when you look at the price action it does not appear anyone is necessarily pulling cash out of the market in any meaningful way. if that is the case, if that is true, what does that tell you about the potential for the market to rebound? michael: i think, we will know in a few hours time. if it is coming back that is quite healthy. what you want to see a some of the cyclical sectors start to show a little bit of resilience. one thing we have seen in last couple of days is bold showing

signs -- is gold showing signs of stabilizing. that might be important because gold is an important place to be since the late summer. jonathan: this debate was about cyclicals potentially winning the cycle, that the banks would outperform big tech, that this cycle would be different, the trajectory of the recovery would be different, not just through this year, but the next several years and away we did not see the previous cycle therefore your investment strategy needs to change. is that still the case? does anything change that? michael: i do not think a period like this would change anything. i am not particularly dumb back -- to me cyclic -- i'm not particularly dogmatic -- to me cyclicality -- the demand and supply in ballast -- the demand and supply imbalance still looks attractive. this market is straightforward

and does not move in a linear very -- in a linear way. people thought that was the end of the 2009 bull market at the time. jonathan: and how wrong they were. michael shall, market field asset management ceo on a fascinating session this morning. we are down 56 on the s&p to 4294. a break of 1.25 on the 10 year. nnwright now 1.2562. tom: a little bit of confidence within a very difficult morning. dan alpert just put out a brilliant tweet. he says we have run out of bonds, we have overnight repose moonshot up, he has always done a great job. he says we run out of bonds. john templeton told me when i could shave once a week, he said there will be a shortage of bonds. jonathan: that was not the story when we came into this year and

we were talking about washington, d.c. tom: the issuance of bonds, we will all die. jonathan: here we are at 1.25. some people think part of peak everything is pete fiscal as well. there is huge enthusiasm -- it is not developed in the way they thought. tom: we miss lisa so much, we have to talk about a bond glut. romaine: that was the narrative. this is a bit on the idea of the ratio. that if the fed stays put, i guess in some perverted sense 1.25 may be distracting. jonathan: is it because people think the fed will stay put or people think maybe they have an inch? the balance of risk around inflation as shifted. you saw that yesterday in the minutes. romaine: you saw that in the minutes and you're seeing that in the money flows.

jonathan: county down to the opening a couple of hours away. in the next hour, we will catch up with pete buttigieg. a timely conversation with the transportation secretary. down 57 on the s&p. your bond market is bid. yields, 1.25 on tens. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in haiti, police reportedly have shot and killed four suspects in the assassination of the president. according to the associated press, two others were arrested and three police officers being held hostage were freed. no word on who the assassins were. ecb policy makers have confirmed they are raising their inflation calls to 2%. they also recommended owner occupied housing be included in inflation statistics. climate change will be considered in the ecb monetary policy.

japan may be closer to a no spectator olympics. an advisory panel has recommended approving a state of emergency in tokyo for the entire period of the summer olympic games. fans would be banned from attending olympic events. the european union has imposed fines close to $1 billion on volkswagen and bmw. regulators say the two companies colluded to delay emissions technology. in soccer, england will play in the title match for the first time in 85 years. england a 2-1 win over denmark. the english returned to wimbley sunday to play italy for the championship. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪

>> inflation will be less temporary. it is true there is a supply

shock, which is temporary. the real reality is demand has jumped because of expansive fiscal policy and pent-up demand because most americans are better off than they were before the pandemic and have been ever since. jonathan: that was rick mishkin. alongside tom keene i'm jonathan ferro with romaine bostick. lisa abramowicz will be back on monday. we are off the lows. we are down 55, -1.2%. we are down five or six basis points, off the lows on the 10 year yield. we did have a look at 1.24. 1.2596 is where we are the moment. tom: i should point out oil. less demand, more of a less growth tone. $73 on brent crude.

jack fitzpatrick with us from bloomberg government. i know you want to talk about some of the debt ceiling dynamics. we have to talk about 1915. there was an assassination in haiti before the u.s. involvement in world war i and we set the troops in. 689 miles from miami to haiti. haiti is not cuba. katie is close. will we send the troops in again? jack: i will not expect that. there haseñ response just yet. we are watching the bided administration -- the biden administration that is trying to be less interventionist than in recent years. to be honest it has been a fairly quiet response so far. still as the story is playing

out, quite response so far from the bided administration -- from the biden administration and lawmakers. tom: is there a state department tone on our domestic sphere of a biden doctrine on the caribbean, central america, and south america? jack: in the americas i am not sure they have set a clear tone. in the early days of this administration, the administration has looked to cast its eyes to asia more than anything else, and largely has attempted to shift from the middle east to asia. you cannot -- you can focus -- you cannot focus solely on what you want to focus on in foreign policy. they are focused on asia and the things that have popped up elsewhere, issues with russia,

issues in the middle east with israel and palestine have not gotten a distinct tone or that much of a vocal focus from the bided administration. jonathan: we have to sort out the agenda in the united states. a domestic story. what is happening with the debt ceiling debate? jack: technically the deadline would be august 1. there is now an expectation they can kick that passed september 30. that is the guidance that lawmakers are relying on according to the house budget chairman. if they can do that in the treasury can use extraordinary measures to get that into october, that could be tied up with negotiations to fund the government. secretary yellen seems to have privately pulled back on some of her very urgent words about trying to get this done early.

there were some conversations between her and lawmakers after which lawmakers came out and said this is going to wait until probably october, if not later. they are hoping there is nothing unexpected with the pace of spending. there is an expectation they will try to get something bipartisan done that could be locked into and tied up with government funding debates that would come up starting in september rather than anything urgent now. jonathan: you mentioned this. secretary yellen used dramatic words to describe the urgency of needing to settle this. a highly experienced policymaker in washington, obviously on the monetary policy side and now in the treasury. what was she doing? jack: she may have gotten over her skis. very shortly after she used the strong words saying congress should address this before

august, she met with lawmakers, would not take questions, and a number of lawmakers later followed up, saying she had claimed her words were misconstrued and she was not trying to pressure them too much. lawmakers instead were going to wait on this. this was more of an october issue than a now issue. she has not pushed back on that new interpretation. it is a much less aggressive stance right now than what she vocalized a couple weeks ago. romaine: quickly, the issue going on right now with china, all the drama surrounding the didi listing. we saw a couple of pieces of legislation pushed forward.

there were strong comments out of marsha blackburn of tennessee. any impetus in congress for some sort of formal response to what has been going on in china? jack: in congress, we are still in the early stages. congress is motivated to get going on bills relating to china, economic competition with china. that has been more on the r&d side. in terms of responding to the latest news, bill introductions, statement from lawmakers, that is what we are watching. in terms of something moving forward, we are still in the early stages. jonathan: jack fitzpatrick, bloomberg government reporter. the team at bloomberg news reporting a chinese firm is said to have halted its u.s. ipo plans. not exactly surprising. we had a chinese company come to u.s. capital markets, cap those

markets for billions of dollars, and then the chinese columnist -- the chinese communist party gave them a slap on the head and clamped down the company. you can decide your interpretation. either this was about clamping down on u.s. investors, or it was a warning shot for the chinese company itself. tom: i will bring you one over and i'm not editorializing, i'm just wondering. what does this mean for our banks in hong kong? seriously? what does it mean for our banking relationships. romaine: i think the legislation , this is maybe a sign of what is to come. i think congress will try to take some kind of formal step. jonathan: counted you down to the opening bell. in about 65 minutes, you will

have jobless claims in america. important economic data. we are down 54, off the lows, still -1.24% on the s&p. yields in five basis points. euro-dollar at 1.1842. on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: live from new york city, on tv and radio, for our audience worldwide good morning. s&p down by 1.5%. up 1.54% on the small-cap. it's the same old debate, what do you want to own? growth, value, cyclicals, big tech? switch of the board and get to the bond market. nominal 2's, 10's and 30's. we are down about four basis points or so. a couple of important things to think about, 1.88 is your one year median forecast for the 10

year. this is a market caught off guard. when you get a squeeze, you start to get some people building some narratives, including myself, and those narratives get to extrapolate out through the whole cycle. where are we? about 40 basis points south of where we were at the end of march on a nominal 10 year yield. the 2's, 10's curve is just about holding its neck above water. this is not a fresh move. it is not new. it has been developing for the last several months. here's the chart i want to show you, the most important chart sometimes are the most simple charts. you can take a picture of real yields, nominal yields, but if you take a nice, clean picture of the s&p 500 over the last 12 months, the picture is pretty clear, isn't it? it is up and to the right, regardless of what is happening in the bond market, and it keeps on going.

tom: i don't have it ready now but you put up the banner of the 12 month return on the equity markets. i am really glad you put the persistency here of the standard & poor's 500. jon, i'm sorry, it is a bull market. that's what it is. jonathan: we have talked so much about getting where the bond market will be, what it will mean for the market. we have a lot of people come on programs and talk about active management is going to be so important this year. tom: i think it had a lot to do with windowdressing, june 30. i think they are behind, and the moon on amazon and the rest of it i think had a lot to do with it. jonathan: we will catch up with the biggest bull on wall street. before we get there, some stocks. >> this is a bull market. the latest leg of that bull

market was driven by those big cap tech stocks. at least for today, there is a little bit of a break down there. whether this is a longer-term breakdown or a little bit of profit taking, it's going to take a few more days, may be a few more weeks, to find out. apple down in the premarket, similar story for amazon and microsoft. all three of those names are of double digit percentages -- up double digit percentages over the last five or six week alone. when we talk about a backtrack away from the reflation trade, well, i guess there were signals of that are ready. three names that have not really been embraced for the last five or six weeks, it was a lot of those travel stocks, carnival corp., and a lot of those material companies. those names have been down by double-digit percentages since the beginning of june here. united airlines down about 3% and freeport-mcmoran down more

than 3% in the premarket. this is a little bit of a rotation going on, a little bit of a push and pull amongst investors who are trying to decide whether this bull market can continue. but more importantly, if it does continue, where the leadership is going to be. tom: look for romaine this afternoon as well. we have been just thrilled with what our team has done to bring in equity voices. abby joseph colin and now we continue with our guest from credit suisse. his calls earlier in the year were distinct and different. can you give the s&p 5000 this morning? i got to make some news. >> things that have made me optimistic about the market are still in play. and more than anything else, it is earning. we are going to start to hear i think it's next tuesday from j.p. morgan and the big banks. the consensus view is that we

will have 61% upside in earnings versus a year ago. are read is that number will be 75%. if we are wrong, we are too low. tom: we are going to stop the show right now because this is critical. we are going to get to the earnings call. we now know consensus is different now than it has ever been. can you make a shift to secular growth based off those earnings =u qge+hole because the world is going to come to an end 18 months later? >> i think there is two battles. the fundamentals are unbelievably strong. this is going to be the strongest gdp quarter we have seen. the economic data in general is good and continues to improve. value is cheaper than growth. cyclical, old economies, boring companies are delivering stronger growth. these are things like mining companies. when interest rates fall, the

market favors growth stocks in a falling interest-rate environment. the market is great. the question is just, as you guys have mentioned, where is the leadership? what wins within the market? because the market still wants to go up and to the right. jonathan: why can't i just buy the market? why do i have to get into the details? why is it all about active management when clearly you are doing ok just holding the s&p 500? >> i don't think that's a terrible call. if you are a hedge fund that is watching this show, you don't have that option. you have to try and figure out how you can outsmart the market. for them, i think the story is between now and the end of the year, value wins, cyclicals win and there will be a time for growth, but not right now. if you're a long-term investor, whether you buy the broader market or by these tech teams -- buy these tech themes,

long-term, it's a growth story. if you are an individual, you can ride the wave that way. if you are a hedge fund, you have to play this more tactfully. jonathan: what's more important, the earnings or where the 10 year yield is? i have asked that question repeatedly over the last 24 hours. the consensus seems to be it's very much about the former. >> if you are looking at the overall market, the whole thing is earnings story. i'm talking about how defensive the market is because stock prices are up. there has been no increase in valuations, in pe multiples in a year. the stock market is moving only with the earnings story. if you're looking at this in terms of what is in the market, growth versus value, tech versus financials, then it is about interest rates. >> put into perspective how resilient the earnings picture has been.

there has been a lot of disruptions, a lot of talk about supply chains, a lot of talk about wage growth. the idea that all of these various factors would somehow upend the earnings picture for some of these companies. and overall, at least on an aggregate basis, it has held up pretty well. >> you make a good point. first of all, the smartest question i recently got was not, what is this year's earnings versus last year? because we know last year was a beaten up number. what does it look like compared to two years ago? the expectations consensus is that we will be about 9% above where we were two years ago. our estimate is that we will be 19% above by the time all the reports are in for this quarter. that is really amazing. we still have all this destruction. we cannot get the things -- this disruption. we cannot get the things that we want delivered.

by the end of this quarter, we will probably have 20% stronger earnings growth than we did before the pandemic started. tom: golub talks about the smart question he got four years ago. the best question he got was jon ferro's question a moment ago. are we supposed to be worried about earnings or the 10 year yield? >> that is the money question. you know people are going to obsess over this. they are going to obsess over wherever we are now, obsess over whether we are headedr

advice. what do you tell people who are may be staying up late at night staring at their screens? >> well, first of all, i made this comment i guess probably about eight weeks ago. we were about 1.50, so we were an equal chance we would get to 1% or 2%. i was really vocal that if you and the year closer to 1%, the market is going to be weaker than if you end the year closer to 2%. higher rates are indication that demand for capital is rising. ]y4yit's a sign that the economs strong. the reason the market is selling off today is because people are asking the question, what the heck is wrong the interest rates are falling when this economy is supposed to be so good? we want higher interest rates. i would argue that if the interest rates continue to move towards 1%, i still think the market will be higher, but i will be proven to be too optimistic. if interest rates is back up towards 1.5%, the market is on fire. jonathan: we get a move down to 1% and that price target of yours is in question. >> i think that likelihood of me hitting that number is lower. on the other hand, if we get

towards 1.75% or 2%, i might be too light on my number. the sentiment of the market is all tied to what has been going on with the 10 year. if last earnings season is similar to this one, the market is going to care, if interest rates continue to fall apart, there's a chance the market ignores the earnings. jonathan: chief equity strategist at credit suisse. tom: did he give us a 5000 target? jonathan: he didn't. he said if yields were higher, he might reevaluate higher. tom: come on. jonathan: i think you are being a little bit kind, tom, about whether there was a move there or not. tom: do you notice a difference in their show? romaine is so much more optimistic. jonathan: he wants to be validated. tom: it is the pendulum of

soothing advice. jonathan: looking for soothing advice from our guest this morning, romaine bostick in for lisa abramowicz. yields are off the lows. tom: can we get all three of us to wear bowties one day? jonathan: 70 plus for the bowties, 70 and under for the ties. the older you get, the fatter the tie gets. tom: thank you. jonathan: coming up next, eric adams, the democratic nominee for new york city mayor. an important conversation together with secretary buttigieg. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> whether the first word news, i am ritika gupta. a two week search in a collapse■ building in surfside, florida has come to an end. the operation is now a recovery effort after authorities concluded there was no longer

any chance of finding life in the rubble. crews recovered 54 victims. 86 are still unaccounted for. good news for some british travelers. those who have been fully vaccinated will no longer need to isolate for 10 days one they return home from moderate risk countries. they will be asked to takeover test upon arrival -- to take covid tests upon arrival. the china government signals the economy needs more support from the central bank. authorities hinted that the people's bank of china could make more liquidity available to banks in order to boost lending to businesses. one way to do that would be cutting the amount of money the banks have to keep in reserve. china's recovery from the pandemic has shown signs of faltering recently. 36 states have sued google, accusing the company of abusing its power over app sales. they alleged they forced customers to use the google

store. the company says the lawsuit gets it wrong. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> i would imagine about september, october in southeast asia, we are going to start

saying travel resume, firstly with domestic and then international. we have already been given word that those who are double vaccinated will be allowed in. the reopening in thailand, they have set very clear dates. jonathan: that was tony fernandes, air asia group ceo. alongside tankan, i am -- tom keene, i am jonathan ferro, along with romaine bostick. we recover just a little bit, with an emphasis on little bit. we are negative poin -- -1.44% on the s&p. we are still at 1.2778, yields lower. tom: are we going to have green on the screen by the time romaine does the show later? jonathan: just at this rate, that's not me making an observation. tom: it's time for the public service part of the program.

just to get to it because we have so much to talk about this morning. david wilson is going to straighten you and me out and all this marketing blather of the indices. the faang plus index, in my opinion, is a disgrace. it does not have microsoft. it has a bunch of other noise in it. it is basically, david wilson, it is a manufactured index of marketing. am i wrong? >> it is hard to argue against that. bear in mind what's been going on with the faang stocks. we see facebook at a record this week, amazon.com at a record yesterday, google's alphabet also at a record. netflix has been left behind a little bit but it's a relatively small company compared with the other three. with these faang stocks setting records, you would expect the new york stock exchange's faang plus index to set a record as

well and it just has not happened. there are 10 companies in this faang plus index and two of them are chinese, alibaba group holding, and baidu, the internet search company. those stocks have been caught in the chinese government's crackdown on companies based in, you know, china and trading overseas. tom: you are expert at this. how do you treat indices that are literally a marketing plan of somebody? we've got to do an index so we can get out there and be visible with romaine bostick, so they invent an index, right? >> you can have futures and options on that index. that's a part of the mix as well. the indexes of today are not the indexes of, you know, four or five decades ago because so much of it is tied into trading in one way or another. you have this faang plus index,

futures on the index and so on. you don't want to just put it in four stocks. it would be too concentrated. if you were to track an equal weight to index of those faang stocks, and that's part of the chart, you would see that they are up quite a bit from february when that faang plus index peaked, actually about 12% over the five or six months span. !q average was a marketing gimmick. a lot of that indices were in marketing gimmick. i get it. p&■to his point, though, dave, d when we talk about how we measure effectively what is big cap tech, because that is effectively what the nyse faang plus index was supposed to be. is there a general argument that

maybe we need to move on from? maybe there is something better sitting there that tom is sitting on that would better capture the essence of what this is supposed to be? >> it's entirely possible. these days, you cannot keep microsoft out of the equation. you think about the trillion dollar club, it is part of it along with apple, amazon, half and now facebook. if you don't have them all in an index somewhere, you are not really capturing what's happening. you can make the argument about tesla as well. there's a lot of focus on technology within its business. tom: you are reaching. romaine: dow futures down about 500 points are now. jonathan: did you quote dow futures? thank you. just to make up for that lapse in concentration. romaine: this will be my last appearance on the show. jonathan: you wish.

romaine bostick does not want to get up this early, that's the secret. tom: i get it. the dow is a marketing plan a million years ago, i get it. is tesla a faang stocks? jonathan: clearly no. if you want to be concentrated in some of the big growth names, which is essentially what that particular index has become, then maybe it makes sense. i am not here to defend or criticize. i am sure somebody has allocated it to an etf that tracks it. tom: the bloomberg commodity index is a really smart set of mathematics. the financial standard deviation index we got off the imf, that's really smart mathematics. most of this is marketing stuff, i'm sorry. jonathan: as is most of the content on this program.

given what this market has been up to, you could take a chart of a 10 year yield, take a chart of breakevens, spend your time going through it all, ducking and diving, then you look at the s&p 500 and we showed the chart and we can show it again. up and to the right aggressively over the last 12 months and it's a pretty straight line. tom: thank you so much for watching this morning. he says, you throw tesla into the index and i'm sorry, it's the ftaang index. jonathan:jonathan: maybe that's your future, tom. let's wrap this up. all-time highs yesterday, all-time highs on the s&p 500 yesterday. tom: mass corrections this morning. jonathan: when we are talking about this move, where are we now? -61 point, down about 1.4%. we are coming across from all-time highs on the s&p and we

are coming off the year end median price target on wall street. when we were in october, november, when those headlines crossed about vaccine efficacy in early november, those forecasts of anywhere near 4300, that felt like a pipe dream, six, seven, eight months ago. romaine: we pushed back on that. we ended up being the ones who looked like we were wrong. i think that when you look at the current levels and the crabwalk that we have had to these record highs over the past six, seven weeks, you have to wonder whether some of this team is running out of the engine. jonathan: futures down by 1.4%. yields come in by for basis points. heard on radio, seen on tv. alongside tom mckeen, i am jonathan ferro -- tom keene, i am jonathan ferro, with romaine

bostick. lisa has told us she went to greece. tom: not sure. jonathan: on monday, lisa is back. equity market coming off all-time highs. tom: will we be back? jonathan: probably not. secretary buttigieg will be joining us, though. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> if you have confidence in the economic outlook, equities are usually the best place to be. >> pure reopening trade that some of the covid sentiment sectors have a harder summer than people were hoping for. >> that abroad acceleration is getting shifted from the u.s. >> we just all focus a bit more on fiscal policy. >> the fed will actually end up doing what it has to do but it may be a little bit late. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance."

with tom