. they also freed three policeman who had been taken hostage by the gang. the attackers also shot and moved his wife. the prime minister's soon to leadership of haiti with the backing of police and the military. good news for british travelers. the word came from the transport secretary earlier today. >> from the 19th of july, u.k. residents who are fully vaccinated through the u.k. vaccine rollout will no longer have to self-isolate when they returned to england. mark: instead of self-isolation, those travelers will be told to take a covid test two days after arrival. the rules cover travel for moderate risk countries. a top european union officials as a potential closure of the

only remaining border crossing through which you mean a tiered aid can enter syria held by antigovernment insurgents would be catastrophic for millions of civilians. the eu commissioner is urging the un security council to keep the crossing between turkey and northern syria open. it is the main point from which international aid is brought into the northwest. your trip to the grocery store may soon cost a little less. global food prices fell for the first time in a year. prices drop to .5% in june, easing from a non-your high. it was the first decline since may 2020. the index tracks costs of raw materials, and it takes time for çjçprice changes to feedthrougho store shelves. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists +uteá over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.

♪ matt: it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, 7:00 p.m. in berlin, 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. u.s. stocks in the red. we will have the latest with gina martin adams. the g20 is meeting in venice. what is on the agenda with tina fordham. and star power. ryan reynolds's company combines with ad company mountain. we will discuss with ceo mark douglas.

let's take a look at what is going on in markets. the s&p is down but only two thirds of 1%. bigger losses this morning, but now it looks like investors are going in and buying the dip. the u.s. 10-year yield still done 1.29%. -- down 1.29%. it has been much lower as well this morning. the dollar index at 11.4350. nymex crude climbing as inventories come down. 72.82 is the cost of one barrel. let's get overdue gina martin adams from bloomberg intelligence to talk about what is going on in the markets. it's a great time to have you because we are about to kick off earnings season next week.

what should we take from all-time highs? we hear people say that valuations are on a knife edge here. are we price to perfection -- priced to perfection? gina: pretty close. what we are going to have to contend with over the next 12 months is a deceleration in the recovery, and a lot of uncertainty over where inflation is headed, where monetary policy is headed. that is the key, we are coming from an environment where we knew growth would accelerate, at least until the summer. we knew the fed would remain extremely easy. we knew inflation would accelerate as prices recover. now we are going to start to contend with a bunch of unknowns. what is the pace of recovery going to look like going forward? where is inflation going to settle down?

how will the fed normalize what has been an extremely abundant source of liquidity over the course of the last year? matt: the latter is the one that we will talk about the most, gina. it has to be one of the most important, at least judging from past experience, when they have tried to normalize, things have gone haywire. why no taper tantrum now? gina: they are still talking about when they will talk about tapering. even in june when we saw a modest revision in the dot plots, you saw the market experienced a bout of indigestion. the fed was quick to come on the tape and saying we are not moving anything very quickly. this is not a 2021 thing, this is a 2022-2023 thing. we are still committed to hundreds of billion dollars a month in purchases. they are still counting on that.

that changes over the next three months probably. the bond market is already suggesting they are concerned that that will move too fast, and that has created some turmoil in the leadership of the s&p 500. if the fed starts talking about normalizing the balance sheet, that is pretty big to absorb. we will have to do that but we have not gotten there yet. matt: besides being the chief equity strategist here, you have a career on the street running equities at wells fargo. you were also an economist before that. what does it mean to you when we see rates come down so low in an economy that we expect to be booming? gina: complete lack of confidence in the durability of the recovery. i think this is something we will have to contend with in the equity market as well. to me, the bond market is

suggesting that it definitely does not believe inflation pressures are permanent. as a matter of fact, a year from now, we could be just inflating pretty rapidly. the structural environment that existed over the last 10 years continues. i think we can certainly question that over time. it looks like demand is potentially going to settle at a faster pace, even into 2022, then we had anticipated a year ago. but the bond market is suggesting otherwise. this is a one-time deal, you get a recovery burst, and then we are back to a normalize rate of growth that looks similar to that which existed in the prior cycle. matt: the u.s. earnings season kicks off on tuesday. what are you most excited about as you get ready for the onslaught? gina: i'm number of things to

watch in the upcoming season. the first is what is happening with margins and margin forecasts. operating margin forecasts are one of the most consistent indicators of price direction for the s&p 500. they have stalled over the course of the last two months. that largely explains why we have had this confused market where leadership is going back and forth between segments and have not gone materially higher. i would say you want to watch operating margin forecasts very carefully. if they start downshifting, that is usually pretty consequential for the direction of prices. the other thing i would watch is capital expenditures, buybacks, cash deployment trends. we have seen buybacks accelerate rapidly. our forecast was to grow 50% this year to make up for the tremendous amount of cuts last year. but we have not seen a transition of deployment of capital into capital expenditures. companies are starting to get optimistic about the outlook,

and they tend to spend more. they get excited about investment prospects, start investing. that type of activity could catapult us into a different economic growth sphere that is different from the last cycle, but something we are on guard for. the other thing is what we were talking about, where do we settle? going into 2022, what do companies suggest is there likely normalized pace of growth? doesn't look like the last cycle? are we dealing with the same secular growth issues that we were dealing with in 2019, or is it different? are we moving into a new economic and inflationary regime? which i think sets us up for a potentially different characteristic driver of markets. matt: thank you so much for joining us, gina martin adams, chief equity strategist for bloomberg intelligence.

coming up, g20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in venice. at the top of the agenda is the global minimum tax rate. tina fordham of avonhurst joins us with a preview, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. g20 finance ministers are gathering in venice. on the top of their agenda is the overhaul of the global corporate tax rate.

here with us is tina fordham, avonhurst partner, the head of their global political strategy. how does that look in terms of getting a deal done? i know there were at least three eu members opposed to this last week. are we going to be able to bring them over to the finish line? tina: that is exactly the point. the biden administration has made this willful booming them tax the centerpiece of this policy of what it wants as a way of illustrating that america is back. janet yellen is behind it. global efforts to fight corruption. many positives to undertake in this policy. but as you point out, whatever the g20 finance ministers say, talk is cheap, and we still need european union consensus, and we still need to u.s. to agree to this. i don't think the markets will

focus usually on this. i think people have been surprised about how far this agenda item has gone but it is not a done deal. the smaller countries that have been benefiting are not going to want to roll over and give up this comparative advantage they have carved out for themselves. matt: absolutely. i think you would agree that the markets think it will take years to come to fruition. they don't seem particularly focused on that. it seems markets are less focused on the delta variant, at least the last week, reopening. you are in london, where you had a fantastic win last night. congratulations to england getting to the final.

but you have 50,000 people in wembley. is it a concern as you start to reopen in the u.k.? tina: it absolutely is. the u.k., in some ways, has had the worst of both worlds. hey hi death toll and then a quite restrictive lockdown, which is still going on. say it quietly, but the more government people that i hear from, and business people, are expecting a fourth wave in the autumn. that goes for europe as well. there is a dawning cents in conversations that the delta variant has extended the timeline for the pandemic, and therefore, for recovery. but you would not look -- would

not find that in the markets. they seem to be impervious to the news. matt: how do you rank the challenges we face politically? the covid spread in the developing world is still a concern. we heard a new hacking reports out of russia, weeks after biden warned prudent to stop -- putin to stop. china is cracking down on [÷(çoc(ç tech companies, m:yèy seemingly trying to recover power after the anniversary of the communist party. when you look at the headwinds, what are your main concerns? tina: what i do at avonhurst a lot is rank the threat assessment but also the impact assessment. let's remember, in these markets, there is so much liquidity. it will take a serious macro event to move markets in terms

of scale. more and more cyberattacks because states like russia still want to project geopolitical power. they don't want to provoke war. it is fairly low risk. likewise, china making it difficult to penetrate them it's -- there markets. -- their markets. five years ago, it would have been front page news, generating volatility, but we are not in that place right now. matt: he's the liquidity especially -- is the liquidity especially in the slow rate environment a concern? tina: in terms of its effects of buffering political risk, that

is what stands between us and more volatility. a fourth wave of delta, the fact that we are looking at the end of next year before the rest of the world is vaccinated, so further variants could emerge. a very choppy environment for recovery. the imf has more in a two stage recovery. i am writing about inequalities in recovery, but nobody will take that terribly seriously until the fed and ecb change their stance. there is more concerned about inflation, rates, but they are most concerned about keeping things from tipping over. central banks, finance ministers

gathered in venice. they are still the most powerful actors in the world. matt: always good to get your insight. tina fordham is a partner at avonhurst, the head of global political strategy. still ahead, star power comes to the markets. ryan reynold's maximum effort sold to and company mountain. we will talk to ceo mark douglas. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. ryan reynolds' creative energy maximum effort is being acquired by mntn. i giggle because i watched an

interview in which his twin brother accuses him of selling out. ceo of mntn mark douglas joins us. i don't think brian really has a twin brother but it is one of the brilliant skits that he put out on social media to publicize your combination. tell us about what you plan to do together. mark: ryan is a creative force, obviously. we met this year and, in the world of connected tv, we have at supported programming, the media delivering the ads, the creative need a better combination. we have not announced specifically what we are doing in that area but you can think of that as the general theme. we want to bring media, the days of don draper, back to the

forefront. matt: he puts out incredibly high level stuff on social media, has been through the pandemic. from what i understand, the partnership that you have created now will make it easier for companies and businesses to do that, to publish advertising in a way that is much more from the hip, much more in the moment. how will that work? mark: a moment ago i said bringing media to the forefront, i met creative. you have this a democratization of television advertising. it has traditionally been this old-school medium. it has been very expensive and only the largest company. with the advent of streaming television, you are seeing

advertisers that are smaller in size can really access this medium, and they can do it incrementally. what is critical is the creative is the message. consumers don't hate ads, they just hate bad ads. what is happening with this democratization, we want to bring creative to the forefront. what we are doing will be great for all businesses in terms of their ability to get their product out in front. consumers just want great products also. matt: i am sure at least half of the people watch just because of the commercials, and tiktok is such an amazing success without having million-dollar production behind it. when i think, why hasn't someone thought about this earlier?

when will you bring it to market? mark: we are in beta now with a number a different brand in terms of our plans. we will be announcing in the fall of what we are doing together. i think your examples are very appropriate, really spot on. before we even met ryan and maximum effort, they fed off of a mishap that peloton had, filmed the same actors, drinking aviation gin, something that ryan was involved in. that took a day or two where a typical creative takes weeks of meetings. that type of sincerity, authenticity, the ability to deliver, to get that to all

advertising companies is what we are after. matt: really appreciate you joining us. we hope that you'll come back and tell us about it as it continues. mntn ceo mark douglas talking about a new way to publish advertising, joining up with ryan reynolds, truly a creative force, as you can see from the content he has put out. hopefully that is the kind of content we get in our ads. we are looking at a market that is down but not crashing, all the off about three quarters of 1% on the s&p 500. u.s. 10-year yield at 1.2928. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network.

mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. the biden administration is not yet ready to lift restrictions

on international travel to the united states. in an exclusive interview with bloomberg television today, transportation secretary pete buttigieg says the date cannot be arbitrary and that it has to be based on conditions. >> we are going to continue to have a strategy led by public health authorities, guided by homeland security, cdc, my department at the table, to reopen travel as quickly and as responsibly as we can. mark: a lot of the timing depends on what is going on with vaccine progress around the world, as well as how fast coronavirus variants are spreading. africa had its worst week since the coronavirus pandemic began. cases jumped 20% over the last seven days. officials say the situation is expected to get worse. the highly transmissible delta variant is now dominating many regions.

still, officials say there are hopeful signs vaccine rollout across africa is improving. north korean leader kim jong-un has dropped as many as 44 pounds but has no major health issues, according to its outcome in -- south korean law maker. the north korean leader was out of the public eye for much of may. when he reappeared in a june video, he appeared much slimmer. his weight is tracked by spy agencies, especially since his family has a history of heart disease. if you hit the road over the fourth of july weekend, you have lots of company. the energy administration said gasoline supplies rose to 10 million barrels a week. demand has surged as the easing

of economic restrictions propel more americans to presume their pre-pandemic lifestyles. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. amanda: welcome to bloomberg markets. i'm amanda lang. matt: i'm matt miller. we welcome our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. ecb president christine lagarde reveals the details of the central banks strategy being the ecb raising its inflation goal to 2% over the medium-term, giving officials more discretion in how to bolster the economy.

the opec-plus stalemate continues. secure energy ceo rene amirault tells us how it is impacting the oil industry. some travel -- summer travel is in full swing. we will speak to the ceo of a service which helps people buy and own second luxury homes. how nice. amanda: so nice for those that can do it, maybe not with their stock earnings today. we are seeing a lackluster market across north america, off the lows of the session but with the same kind of catalysts, including those fresh lows on the yields. the 10-year at 1.29. the betting on inflation in north america seems to be made here, that there will not be any.

earth, the big question is around inflation. the ecb says it is adjusting somewhat its own targeting on inflation including that it may let it overshoot the target for a while. it is not exactly what the fed is doing but will allow inflation to run higher then it may have historically. we heard earlier from christine lagarde. >> this may well imply for a temporary period inflation that is moderately above target. are we doing average inflation targeting like the fed? the answer is no, very squarely. amanda: one of the things that

makes this so interesting, the ecb would kill for inflation around 2%. it would be a good news story if the stimulus -- and i don't think we acknowledge it in america enough. it would be a good story if this stimulus produces some stimulative growth. matt: i have long told my wife i want to earn a maximum of $1 million a year, but i have changed that target. now it is a maximum of $10 million a year. neither one is achievable for me, but maybe it will be easier to rise closer to the first goal if i put the second one in stone. core inflation in europe has not come close to 2% since i've been here covering the ecb, so good luck with that.

amanda: i think you can definitely shoot above $1 million. you got it. matt: i guess if it continues to devalue the dollar like this, it should be easier. let's get to the stock of the hour. the white house may be looking to limit the power of ocean and real afraid industries, thinking the limited field is artificially raising costs. dave wilson examines for us. dave: what you see is a potential complication for a deal that was just reached a couple months ago. kansas city southern excepting a takeover offer from canadian national, which beat out canadian pacific. now you have the prospect at the biden administration will take a tougher approach to regulating the railroad industry. the wall street journal cited someone familiar with the matter

saying there is an executive order coming down the line, they would be all kinds of provisions in terms of the surface transportation board to combat what they call consolidation and aggressive pricing in the rail industry. ocean freight is part of it as well. with the railroads, you have seven of them that control the u.s. market. in some cases, they have regional monopolies. if you look at the overall market share, you would say what is the issue? it is more about the local concerns in terms of what is ahead for the industry. that is where things stand at this point. today, kansas city southern came out and said august 19 is the date for shareholders to vote on this deal with cn, which is now valued at $29 billion, up from $18 billion initially. you get a sense of what is at

stake. the surface transportation board has yet to rule on the deal. the plan is for cn to put kansas city shares in trust until next year, when finally this board decides whether the two railroads can come together. that is the concern we are talking about, and it goes beyond this deal. you are looking at the industry, the way prices have gone up. csx and norfolk southern are lower as well. amanda: there are laws designed to ensure competition, no price collusion on the rest of it. we are seeing from the stock with the reaction will be, pretty negative. dave: bear in mind, this is an industry that has been trucked take-out costs for years, going back to when hunter harrison was

there in canada putting in his precision scheduling railroading approach. we have seen costs come down as a percentage of revenue in most u.s. carriers because they are following that approach. now you have this issue of price competition, or the lack thereof within the industry. that will raise some regulatory issues. matt: always great to hear about railroads. dave wilson. coming up, the opec-plus stalemate continues. secure energy ceo rene amirault tells us how uncertainty is impacting the oil industry. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller with amanda lang. oil rebounded after report showed rapidly declining inventories and record high fuel demand in the midst of peak summer driving season. for more, let's bring in rene amirault, secure energy ceo. i also want to talk about what is happening with opec and how that affects your business, north american businesses. what do you expect in terms of the stalemate? rene: there is obviously a lot of politics going on behind the scenes. what i expect is two things. you have russia and opec-plus, permian and canadian producers, that do not want to high of a price, but also not too low of a

price. this is the goldilocks pricing scenario whereby there is enough free cash flow, return on investment at these levels. in some ways, we want to increase production around the world to meet demand, so we don't get into the high 90's in terms of the price for wti. we also don't want to overproduce and bring it back into the 40's. this is kind of the goldilocks. it is no different in our business. everybody looks at it from a marketshare perspective, they want their piece of the pie. amanda: that is an interesting time -- such an interesting time in the industry. the largest players in the world saying they will draw down on their plans, investors saying they will avoid the space altogether. yet, you have the prices at a multiyear high.

for the service side of your business, how is that playing in? are you seeing spending commitments on your end of things? rene: that is the real interesting thing that has changed in my 30 years in the business. you typically have this overspend, under spend extreme cycle. what you are seeing now is this discipline around living within cash flow, even taking that excess free cash flow and paying that back to shareholders. we are not ramping up to extremes and having to lay off people. not a very capital efficient model. we actually like that our producers and customers are having this discipline to maybe keep production flat or grow in that 3% to 5% range, so we can get the right level of capital

into it, we don't overspend or under spend. over the next 12 months, we will see if that discipline holds. talking to our customers, they definitely feel they want to replace the production of a small amount of growth. at these levels, there is a huge return to shareholders. for us, that is a win all the way around. matt:ho2 shareholder return is e thing that some see as a structural supply a constraint for the big producers. basically he says, on the one hand, everyone is pushing these esg concerns, and that limits exploration and production. on the other hand, shareholders want more cash to come back to them. how do you view that possibility

as a structural supply constraint putting upward pressure on the price over time? rene: that is a great point. the way i look at it is in simple terms. you actually don't have to go out there and explore around the world for more oil. obviously in 10, 15 years, that would be, but if you look at the amount of oil in the ground that could be cost-effectively brought out to meet that demand, it is there today. it is there in the oil sands, permian, summer in that five to 6 million barrels a day of excess opacity that would come off of opec-plus. if there is zero capital spend in this business over the long term, absolutely, that is a fair comment. comment. but i would sayúpo%q ext two or three years, we can bring

that oil out of the ground in a cost-effective basis. what everyone wants to know is, can we increase our esg standards to be the best in the world? yes, we are bringing fossil fuel to the market but can be get to a net zero scenario? i cannot speak on behalf of the world but i can speak on behalf of canadians to let you know that you have a very committed oil and gas producer that wants to get to net zero. i believe, today, is on the way to having the highest esg standards and some of the lowest carbon intensity in the world. amanda: i have to ask you real quick, your acquisition is facing scrutiny from the competition bureau. do you expect asset sales to be

a part of the equation to get the deal done? rene: they have 12 months to review it, we closed the transaction. there are a lot of efficiencies, and that is where the competition bureau needs time to sort out the efficiencies. we don't see anything material in terms of having to divest our assets that overlap, or any of the other business units. we will work cooperatively with them and continue to ensure we can bring those efficiencies to our customers. amanda: thank you so much. great to have you with us. rene amirault is the ceo of secure energy. stay with us.

amanda: this is bloomberg markets. i'm amanda lang alongside matt

miller. pacaso international is a service that lets people co-owns luxury homes around the world. razor suleman is the president. you are expanding into new markets, so let's start with people who are not familiar. i think this is the modern-day fractional ownership, but how do you pitch it? razor: we take the generations all practice of owning a second home and just modernize it to make it more accessible to more people. what i love most about it is the mission of the organization, to enrich lives by making second-home ownership possible for more people. matt: how does this work? say me and amanda want to buy a sweet actually cottage. how do we do that with pacaso? razor: we will work with you to

help find your aspirational luxury dream cottage, ski chalet. right now we are open in 20 markets in the u.s. if you want to go down to florida or out to california, pacaso is already there. let's say you decide you want to be in muskoka. prices for second homes in that market have gone up 60%. we would help you manage that entire process, from selecting the home, we would do the inspection, financing, the close. let's say you and amanda bought a quarter share each. we would find like-minded individuals to find the other two quarters and put you in a llc, and pacaso would fully manage it for you. you wouldn't have to worry about

paying the bills. we take care of it, so you can spend your time enjoying the home. amanda: one of the things that is so appealing about this is it is making use of underutilized assets. a lot of people have second homes that sit empty. give us a look at how your model works. you are now worth a billion dollars on paper, so somebody believes in this. how do you make money out of this based on the margins? razor: most second homes sit empty for 10 or 11 months a year. 75% of canadian americans aspire to own a second home, yet we have an affordability crisis. we are trying to help more families get into these home by leveraging that unused supply. let's say we bought a beautiful 2 million-dollar home. pacaso would handle the end-to-end, market up by 12%,

get it fully furnished. that is our margin, we are transparent about that. then we tried each homeowner $99 a month to manage that service. what most people appreciate is that we take maybe four or eight families out of the million-dollar segment and move them up to the luxury segment, so you are not competing with the local workforce by sharing a home that is more aspirational. matt: the transparency i'm sure is appreciated. how do you see the second-home market in the next year or two? we are pretty hot right now. razor: the pandemic has increased all of our desires to have a second home. we think the market will continue, as families and friends look to gather in a safe place. many people want a second home within a two and a half hour drive. we are working hard to expand to all of those communities. over a million people have

expressed interest visiting the site. we are trying to expand globally as quickly as possible. matt: thank you so much, fascinating concept. amanda and i will get in touch after the show. razor suleman, pacaso president. we have to think about the other two couples that we want to go in with us on the cottage. amanda: you are missing the point. we would never be there together. matt: it is a big cottage, or we could have series of cottages. this is cottage life. ♪

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mark: i am mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. officials in haiti are not saying anything about a possible motive in the assassination of

the president. police say they killed four men and arrested two others suspected in participating in the nighttime raid. three policemen were taken hostage by the gang. the attackers shot and injured the president's wife. the new leadership has the backing of police and military. british travelers have good news, the transport secretary -- >> from the 19th of july, u.k. residents who are fully vaccinated through the vaccine rollouts in u.k. will no longer have to self-isolate when they return to england. mark: instead of self-isolation, travelers will be told to take a covid test two days after arrival. the new rules cover travel for moderate risk countries. the olympics old ban