♪ annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. i am dani burger. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." more virus concerns hit the market. asian stocks follow the s&p 500 lower, but some of the world's biggest asset managers stick to the reflation trade amid signs of recovery. taxation revolution. the world's richest nations meet in venice, setting the stage for

an overhaul of corporate taxes. we are live on the ground. a china stock index in hong kong teeters on the edge of a bear market amid beijing's crackdown on the tech sector. good morning. happy friday. the market story that starts with yields, ends with yields, too. the equity market has been relatively resilient these past couple of weeks catching on to the red flags going on in the market. let's show you how dramatic the move in the bond market has been. you see the 10 year yield, this is the rsi, essentially a measure of momentum. we saw it cross a level it has not done since march of 2020. this is when the economy was being hit by covid concerns. as we take a break from this extreme risk aversion from yesterday, we can now assess and gather and think, is this the

economy again? is this showing us more economic concerns that the recovery is on track as much as we thought it was or is it just positioning? if you are some of the big asset managers and wealth managers, like those over at blackrock, jp morgan and morgan stanley, you think it is not the economy, you think the recovery is on track and stick with reflation trade, says these three giants. we stand on the shoulders of giants here at "bloomberg: daybreak." a quick check on the bond market ).?."íñ ]÷mdyield dropped below 3%, a bp 3% this morning. we are seeing some selling going on in the bond market. still, that 30 year breakeven, the assessment of where inflation is going, still moving lower, at its lowest since march.

looking at the equity market as well, equities is still under pressure today. msci asia-pacific index down 0.1%, erasing gains for 2021 with japan also heading into a correction. equity futures in the u.s. also lower. some relief in europe. we are looking at euro stoxx 50 futures up by 0.3%. that's a different picture than markets throughout the world. we are coming from a a lot of risk off in the market yesterday. we are unsure where we are heading next. let's get as clear as a view as we are going to get by our next guest, tatjana greil castro, cohead of public markets at muzinich. i am so happy you are here to help us make sense of what has been going on over the past 24 hours. how do you account for this huge drop in bond yields? tatjana: good morning. i am not sure if i can make sense of it, but i will try.

i mean, there is a lot to take in, right? there is so much to take in. you started with saying, well, there are quite a few institutions out there who say the reflation trade has been on, this is nothing to worry about, it's all about positioning. i think it's not that clear cut. we get new data out that seems to be saying, first of all, the delta variant, so the recovery may be somewhat delayed. this is not a clear-cut now we move out of the pandemic. it may linger with us for quite a while. how does that change behavior? how does that change the -- pre-pandemic? that cannot be dismissed. we are going back to the -- mode. i think government are much against it. we have to move on, in my mind.

we just have to start living with it. nonetheless, there will be caution around. that is different to what we felt a few weeks ago when we said as long as the vaccination rates are high enough, we will be able to sort of dismiss the coronavirus. so there we are. the other thing is position, definitely -- positioning,. definitely. . we were in the camp saying we want to be cautious around duration. we were concerned that interest rates continue to go higher, especially in the long end. there could be a further steepening. a lot of the positioning clearly with the move that you pointed out earlier has been significant. more and more investors are capitulating. you can see that there. positioning is definitely part of it, so it's a combination of

the two from where we stand. dani: ok, so, i mean, it's a tough needle to thread. a lot to unpack. if there is more caution going forward, do you then stick with those reflation traits? do you stick with duration or pullback from positioning? tatjana: given that we are very focused on credit and credit has two components of risk, the interest rate risk and the credit risk, so we always need to calibrate between the two. we have started actually, given the valuations in credit, we are a little bit tight and we saw very little room for further tightening, so we started to calibrate away from credit risk and more into interest-rate risk. that is what we are -- what we have done in the last few weeks. we looked at the technicals and the technicals indicated that interest rates could move lower, because clearly that move where interest rates going lowered in

yield and higher in price was starting a few weeks ago. when you look at the technical charts that indicated that we could go further, we went through very significant breaks lower, so that indicates we are staying lower and may even go a bit lower, so we started to take advantage of that. but at the same time, also reduce some of the credit risk. we see that to play out at the moment, with credit spreads widening and interest rates continue to be quite strong. dani: yeah, i mean, what is it, tightest since 2007 in high yields in the u.s.? these are kind of strange market dynamics that almost seem to scream out late cycle here. where we are -- where are we in this cycle? tatjana: it's difficult to say exactly, given that the cycle only started 12 months ago.

i don't think this is a late cycle trade. this is an adjustment. clearly, the data that we had looked at was very unusual, so growth rate of 9%, inflation of 5%, this is not something that we generally see. from those very high levels, even so, the growth and the inflation may be higher than what we had experienced over the last few years. it has been a slowdown. it's the rate of change that investors always look at. and even going negative. that is really what the market is reflecting, that when you are reaching those very high peak numbers, the numbers going forward may be still higher than they were in the past over the coming months. but the rate of change is deteriorating and that is what we -- what the market is responding to. dani: we have much more to dig

through. you are going to stick with us. that is tatjana greil castro from muzinich. let's get to the first word news with annabelle droulers. hi. >> president biden says the u.s. is on track to end its military mission in afghanistan by august 31, even as the taliban made gains amid the withdrawal. biden reflected on america's longest work which will and just before the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks. others in the region must step up their efforts. pres. biden: u.s. support for the people of afghanistan will endure. we will continue to provide civilian and humanitarian assistance, including speaking out for the rights of women and girls. >> pfizer says it will request u.s. emergency authorization in august for a third used her dose of its covid-19 vaccine. the move comes after early data

shows that it can sharply increase immune protection against the coronavirus. the company has received initial data from an early human study showing that a third dose of this existing vaccine is safe and can raise antibody levels by 5 to 10 fold compared with the original vaccine. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani? dani: thank you so much. coming up, a gauge of china stocks in hong kong pulls back from a bear market, but investors continue to fear that crackdown from beijing on tech. we are going to have the details for you next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ dani: welcome back, everyone. i am dani burger in london.

turn to asia, where stocks have tumbled amid concerns over covid variants, and of course china's corporate crackdown. let's get more with juliette saly in singapore. some of the asian indexes it looked like are on the verge of correction. how ugly is it getting out there? juliette: yes, we have seen a bit of a reversal coming through in the hang seng china enterprises index, which briefly entered bear market territory in early trade after we've been seeing this big sell down coming through on china tech stocks. it has been down some 20% off its peak, but now seeing that index trying to reverse losses. there is this concern about covid variants and the impact of the overall global recovery wing into asian equities, which continue to underperform what you are seeing in the u.s. and europe. the msci asia pacific index on track for an eighth loss in nine sessions. we are seeing the nikkei amid

correction territory, so off some of the lows of the day. we are seeing more concerns about not only a crackdown from beijing, but what you are seeing on the u.s. side as well. reuters reporting that the u.s. could add at least 10 chinese entities to its economic like list over alleged human rights abuses. this move part of the biden administration's ongoing efforts to hold beijing accountable for its actions in the region. all of this weighing into a very negative day's

you are seeing consumer prices increase 1.1% from a year ago. a chief china economist at jpmorgan chase says there is signs we are seeing inflation peak out on the factory floor and it could ease modestly in the second half. that could be a good sign for policymakers, particularly after we saw that flag earlier this week that there could be a cut in the rrr rate. dani: thank you so much. that is juliette saly in singapore. tatjana greil castro from muzinich, who is still with us. juliette saly going through some of the growth concerns in china, whether it has peaked or not. can we still derive any signals from china and their growth trajectory for the rest of the world? does it tell us anything about global economic growth? tatjana: yes, it does. clearly, it's a big driver. we see the inflation data is going into china's wa yesterdayy.

, they were saying they were thinking of cutting the reserve ratio requirement for banks, meaning banks don't need to keep as many resources at the central banks. with inflation slightly easing, it has been very high, but it is going in the direction that would allow policy change to take place. clearly, there is gdp data also expected next week. there is an indication that maybe it is already indicating that the gdp data next week may be a little bit softer than anticipated. the government is anticipating this softness. and clearly, the growth rates in china are still, you know, sort of driving the global growth rate. so all that measures are indicating that there is a significant slowdown. we know it from what we see on goods coming through to the western world, the delays.

there's lots of delays at the ports because of the variants and that has been clearly impacting the overall growth capacity of the economy. dani: there was a moment where it seemed like the variant was affecting airlines or sort of the travel play. are we in a moment that this is more of a macro concern, not something just idiosyncratic to those industries? tatjana: yes. of course, there is the tourist industry that is very heavily affected, especially europe, because of all the restrictions that we now see slowly lifting or easing. there is a huge desire by the population across europe to change across borders. i think that is very much a european thing, in terms of tourism. it is less affected by the u.s., who can travel internally anyway, and there has been far more movement there. the important thing really is the delay in the shipment of

goods. there is anything from building materials to components all affected by it. that does slow down the recovery, and it seems to be not getting any better. dani: thank you so much. that is tatjana greil castro, cohead of public markets at muzinich. coming up, we take a look at how the ecb's new inflation go will shape their euro area's recovery in the years ahead. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london. we finally have the details of the ecb's much-hyped strategy review. much of the review was expected, including abandoning its but low but close to 2% price target. while ecb president christine lagarde's press conference left many questions unanswered, she was abundantly clear that the bank would not follow its u.s. counterpart in targeting an average level of inflation. president lagarde: this may well imply for a temporary period inflation that is moderately above target. are we doing average inflation targeting like the fed? the answer is no, very squarely. dani: paul gordon joins us now. paul, you know, we had assumed that this is what the ecb would

do. i mean, the market was really consumed yesterday by this huge drop lower in bond yields. but was there anything really surprising or new or really earth shattering that we learned from the ecb's strategy review? paul: well, i think one interesting thing that came out of it is that there are implications, big implications, for this for their next policy meeting on july 22. there is plenty of guidance in its policy framework at the moment about what it would do when inflation reaches or approaches its goal of below or close to 2%. that clearly has to change because the goal will change from that meeting. but exactly what that means per policy is still unclear. policymakers proposed, or some policymakers, proposed addressing that in the strategy review and ultimately opted not to do so for fear of confusing their message on the review.

it means what was going to be quite an unexciting july meeting now won't be. dani: i mean, maybe this is kind of a simple but an impossible question, paul, but why 2%? there cpi target for 2023 is 1.4%. why set it there? paul: the key reason to move to 2% is christine lagarde and others thought the previous goal was a little too vague and effectively implied a cap on inflation of 2%. it removes any possible ambiguity and resolutely conveys 2% is not a ceiling. as you pointed out, as was said in that clip that you played, this makes it much clearer that inflation could rise above 2% for a moderate time. she was also keen to stress that yñá■/ztpin exceptional circumst,

when interest rates are near their effective look, when they cannot be cut any further, the situation we are in now. dani: there has been a lot of noise, really globally, about housing bubble,. we got some details about that potentially being included into some of their decision-making. what do we know about that so far and what kind of questions do you have around it? paul: it will be a multiyear process because the ecb does not produce the inflation measure. the governing council agreed to recommend that it be included into the official measure, and the european union officials will now have to decide whether they do that. supplementary to that, the ecb will start taking accounts in it s supplementary, in-house inflation measures, the cost of housing. their own estimates of inflation

will be 0.2%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the official wants. -- official ones. inflation is not quite as weak as it looks and we need to take that into account. dani: thank you so much. paul gordon, thanks for joining us. he brought us our scoop yesterday that they were indeed making this move. tatjana greil castro from muzinich is still with us. does the ecb have the tools to get us to 2%? or do we risk becoming japan, where they set their inflation targets higher, but just never really get there? tatjana: good question, dani. so, the way i read this essentially is, it's a shame, because everybody was waiting for this strategic review and we were hoping for some sort of positive resolution on this issue of the ecb being stuck at

the lower bound, not really being able to go any lower. how can it have a credible approach to getting to 2% inflation? and so, by changing the language slightly around 2% and they wouldn't tolerate above but not intend -- they would tolerate above but not intend to go above. there is a bit of a missed opportunity. how do you get to 2% if you have been below for so long? just because you say i would allow it to go in the beehive does not mean we are getting anywhere -- to go a little bit higher does not mean we are getting anywhere close to. you need to work on rising inflation expectations. this language does not really allow itself to say, well actually, there is a real intent to go higher. dani: ok.

tatjana: the hawks have won out here. dani: does -- tatjana: it tightens the language anyway that it does not really get you to 2%. dani: quickly here, because we don't have a lot of time. do we now face an issue of credibility with the ecb? is that what's at stake with this change in language? tatjana: it's always been an issue. this is why we ended up where we are. the next step really is, as paul said, 2021-2022, july, the next meeting, what is the outcome of that? some of the decisions -- dani: ok. tatjana: it's now may be a little bit later. dani: thank you so much for joining. we are running up against a heartbreak. really insightful comments. tatjana greil castro, cohead of

public markets at muzinich. coming up, we are going to talk about the g20 meeting in venice. global tax overhaul on the agenda. we are live from the ground next. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot.

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>> good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters were it has just gone past 6:30. this is daybreak europe. more virus concerns hit the market. the world's biggest asset managers stick to the reflation trade amid signs of recovery. taxation revolution.

the world's richest nations meet, setting the stage for an overhaul of corporate taxes. we are live on the ground. hong kong teeters on the edge of a bear market. we are taking a pause from the extreme risk aversion we saw yesterday that saw u.s. stocks, european stocks, and asian stocks lower. really dictated by the bond market with that move lower in yields. we are still below 2%. but look how bad the u.s. market was yesterday. this is the uptick, down tick index. when it goes down, that is how many stocks are being sold versus those being bought. yesterday we had the most negative reading in quite a few months, the fourth worst reading in its history. showing you again how negative

the day was yesterday. let's see whether it is shaping up to be the same way today. we had bonds to sellings and the asian session so far. this is something we do tend to see, we have typically seen that when you get bond buying in the u.s. session, traders during the a showers are taking advantage of that to take profit off the table. you have 10 year yields back about. 3%. you have the u.s. 10 year at 13310. we have the asia-pacific index erasing its gains, slightly lower by about 0.1%. europe looking much stronger today, bucking the trend from the other markets. finance and central bank governors in europe are in the g20 meeting taking place in venice. is about 15% global minimum tax

that was agreed the g7. the endorsement will be a key milestone after years on the ground in venice is our maria tadeo. what are we expecting when it comes to the tax front? >> this could be a real tax revolution. you are looking at that minimum corporate tax, 15%. you are also looking at that idea you could see countries tax big tech in the country where they make their money and their services. for years we have talked about profit shifting into low tax jurisdictions. it is interesting i did speak yesterday with the hood of -- the head of the oecd. he told me this is a full package. it is a two-step solution and we want to carry that through.

i asked is that going to be a problem that countries like ireland are not playing ball, that they are holding out? he said they are confident there will be a solution come sunday. which again he described as nothing short of a tech revolution. i did ask whether we could see a hybrid solution meeting you agree to the proper rotation but you don't agree to the tax rate. he said that at this point is not an option. it is hard to see how you bring consensus with countries like ireland about this. dani: what does it ultimately mean for big tech? >> this is for them something that i have to say is not going to come as a surprise. they knew the political mood was changing. they were heading into a system where they would have to pay more taxes, certainly in europe. they make a good point on this

that the fact you have a global solution, one set of rules for everyone across the world, across every major country in the world makes it easier for them. big tech was really concerned about national taxation kicking in from countries individually. the european said if we don't get a comp or hints solution, we are going to go for our own taxation. they do believe actually having one set of rules is a good thing. it will be interesting to see whether or not they do find ways to pay less tax. that is the concern from critics. big companies always find a way to reduce the tax bill. maria in beautiful venice. thanks for staying on top of this. let's move onto something. the u.s. republican party and the colonial pipeline, some of

the many ransomware victims. it is posing a huge challenge to governments and businesses alike on how to protect themselves from cyber security threats. we are now joined by a financial lines partner at mcgill and partners. happy friday to you. can you kind of frame this conversation for people who may not be as familiar with cybersecurity? a client comes to you concerned they might be attacked. what are the products you could offer them? >> that is a really good question and good morning to you. very early morning. there are a number of products we could certainly offer to clients. when they are looking at their cyber and security risks. the main products we offer is one that most comprehensively covers that exposure, cyber insurance policy.

that should be crafted and designed around the specific risks and exposures of that company. they are uniquely crafted so it answers to the risks the company faces. it is generally designed so it is a modular format, you can pick and choose coverage elements that are most appropriate and then customize it further, so it really answers the risks that specific company faces. >> how do you assess the monetary costs? the ransomware asks for $5 million. this is u.s. infrastructure. i would not be surprised if it was in the billions. it seems like something that would be --

>> there are different services that can be provided around quantifying the risk, but it is important to understand as well what we typically see and hear about the extortion demands and payments being made. what does not get as much highlight is the cost thereafter. the real cost is the interruption of business, trying to get a business back up and running again as quickly as possible. it involves a number of different vendors. it'll timidly involves a lot of money. really what that means is it goes back to preparation, preparedness, and prevention, really, for these events, and being able to prevent them is ideal. be prepared if they occur. you can lessen the impac¤'e on e organization and offset what you

are going to have to spend. dani: how prepared are companies? it seems like not a lot are. costs are already tight for a lot of small and medium-size businesses. >> it can be quite a scary thing for some companies, but i do believe that there is better preparation, better prevention now then maybe in the past. because these events targeting so much press and are impacting not just the one off companies here and there, but they are impacting best segments of industry and companies all over the world. there is a better focus now on cybersecurity, on prevention, on making sure you have the right tools in place, also understanding this is not just the technology. this is an enterprisewide brand. we rely heavily on technology to

operate all facets of our businesses. that technology has to be not only operational. it has to protect the assets within the systems and we have to make sure they are accessible when necessary. more companies are focusing more heavily on that, but also, this is one of the areas were cyber insurance can really help. the preparedness element. being able to have access to the right companies, the right third parties if an event occurs. knowing who those vendors are, knowing who those companies are going into each policy year, means you have one element ready packaged for you. that is absolute leak critical. just as critical as prevention. dani: unfortunately we are out of time. so much more to come through.

definitely come back. thanks again for joining us. now coming up, the reflation trade gets hammered. stoxx 600 drops on growing anxiety about the spread of virus variance. asia stocks moving lower. we are going to discuss all of that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> you had a great view of what people could accomplish at home. the firms are going to find they can't manage risk the same way people are trading taking risk from home. you don't have the same

infrastructure, compliance, oversight, risk management. having your front office personnel in financial services work from an office, we have regional offices, suburban offices. i used them as a recruiting tool, you could work in the local new jersey office, the suburban office, mondays and fridays. those offices are chock-full right now as you can well imagine. the front office going back to work is very important. you're going to see that happen. your support staff, those people if they have proven they can work from home, you are going to see people, and that is a competitive advantage. that is our model. our front office people are going to be working from the office and our support staff, accounting staff, compliance, all the people we think -- who

think for a living and work on computers for a living, we can be flexible. >> a lot has changed since the 1980's. particularly of frustration over work hours. how are you responding to junior bankers experiencing burnout? >> you imagine doctors who are residents and say they are burning out because they have to be in the hospital all the time. there is a path to becoming an investment banker that requires an enormous amount of work. that makes everybody including me have to work all weekend to make sure you get all the documents signed. you have to know that is coming. young anchors who decide they are working too hard, these are hard jobs. you have to work hard when you are young.

you should know it going in and make those decisions. to complain about it after you got this great job seems a little silly. >> choose another living. a different tone than we have heard elsewhere on wall street trying to retain and recruit new talent. that is the cantor fitzgerald ceo speaking to bloomberg. the focus on the reflation trade stumbling on growing anxiety about the spread of virus variance and peak growth. joining us now is mark cranfield. this immense exit from reflation trades. there is this big debate going on whether it is technical, what is driving. what is the view from where you are standing on what is driving this punishment in the reflation trade? >> the tipping point was china. when we heard the state council in china was saying they probably need to do a reserve ratio account later in the year

to support small and medium-sized companies, the underlying conclusion from that is that china is weaker growth ahead. that is a bit of a shock to some people. china was the first country to come out of the pandemic. its economy got back on its feet very fast. china does not see strong growth, that is a tipping point that many people same -- many people say it is not just small parts of the world, it is the big players who don't see growth so strong in the second half. . dani: it is not just a growth concern. it is also this concern around tech. looking at the hs index, it is moving higher. do we have any sense whether the declines are finished with or could we see further pain from here? >> certainly we have reached the point where some longer-term

value investors are probably looking at hong kong and china tech and thinking we may be at a point that it is worth taking this seriously. the china tech particularly started to do badly in february. compared to the nasdaq it has underperformed 30%. when you get to numbers of that size, it does attract long-term investors. it does not mean to say the worst is all over. we are closer to the end then we were. when you have such a discrepancy between china tech companies and u.s., it is a challenge to look at it and say maybe there is long-term value. you are talking about companies which are very profitable. these are not guys who are losing money. these are big companies that make money, their valuations looked considerably better than they did a few months ago. on that basis you may say we are closer toward the end of this run.

dani: thank you. that is mark cranfield staying on top of this for us. now let's get to the first word news with annabelle droulers. >> the u.s. has reported plans to add 10 chinese embassies to its economic blacklist over alleged human rights abuses and high-tech surveillance. according to reuters, the move could also include companies from other countries. the u.s. has put import bans on cotton, tomatoes, and some solar products. job openings are triple the level of a year ago in london ahead of the u.k. exit from covid restrictions later this month. according to data from recruitment firm morgan mckinley , more than 3300 jobs are available at the end of last month, the highest level since january 2019. for the first time since the pandemic began, u.s. hotels are outperforming pre-covid levels.

revenue per available rooms, which combines occupancy and prices, was more than 5% higher last week compared to the same period in 2019. this according to data from analytics firm sdr. phoenix in arizona saw the best gains of any market. hotels in new york city continue to struggle. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: coming up, is it coming home or going to rome? italy versus england in the euro 2020 soccer or football if you fancy final the sunday. we look at the highly anticipated event and what it means for equities. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." we are just gone 6:52 a.m.. if you had been sleeping under a rock the last few weeks you would not know this but it is england versus italy at wembley this sunday. on the pitch, the winning side will lift the coveted trophy. a range of consumer stocks could get a boost from the event, whatever the result. is it just beer drinking? what is actually going to benefit from the soccer match happening in wembley? >> beer drinking is the main. we look at the bump stocks normally -- the pub stocks normally. they do well. interest in the event stays

high. that counts for non-england games. people say i'm going to go to the pub even though england is not playing. when england go out early which they usually do, people lose interest. people trying not to think about football at all. usually the pub stocks do really well. they have had a mixed tournament because there have been the restrictions. the rule of six, not being able to go to the bar. most pubs rely on packing their venues out and getting as many people as possible. it has not been so positive. but that has been the benefit to the grocery stocks who have done well from beer sales and snack sales. also the deliveries. deliver -- deliveroo sponsors the england team. people are not able to go to the

pub so they are consuming in the home. the other area is bookmakers. there is a good report from morgan stanley saying during tournament months, during a june and july of a tournament year, new clients increase by about 100% versus non-tournament teams the july. -- in july. people that have never opened accounts, people who have old accounts they do not use, they start betting. there are social occasions, whether it is good people are betting. i had a bet on spain that did not work out. there are several areas of the stock market. dani: you have to bet on the team you don't want to win so even if your team loses you have financial gain. not recommending anybody bet for italy. we have seen the wizards of wall street, with models. goldman has a model for who they think is going to win.

>> goldman has an economic model based on probability. they protected belgium. now they predict england. they called it football is probably coming home. it is a probability model. there was a lot of backlash saying they got it wrong last time, they will get it wrong again. what is important to remember is it is only predicting average. the theory is if we play here in 2020 multiple times, belgium would win. dani: i know you will be watching as we all will. joe easton, thank you. as g20 finance ministers central bankers gather for their first in person meeting, we will be speaking to the eu economy commissioner. we hear from bruno le maire, the french finance minister. later we will be speaking with the spanish economy minister and blackrock's vice chairman. that is it for us.

mark and anna take us through the european open up next on a day when risk off is taking a pause. ♪

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anna: welcome to bloomberg markets "the european open." mark cudmore joins me in singapore. the cash trade is just less than an hour away. more virus concerns hit the markets. asian stocks follow the s&p 500 lower. some of the world's biggest asset managers stick to the reflation trade amid signs of recovery. taxation revolution. t