manus: good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai, i am manus cranny, dani burger alongside me at london hq. this is "daybreak: europe." >> there will be a forward guidance review. manus: christine lagarde tells investors, prepare for new guidance on monetary stimulus next week.

more from our exclusive conversation with the ecb president this hour. progress and -- on taxation, the g20 endorse a global corporate tax deal. janet yellen encouraged that the u.s. can approve the 50% minimum rate this year. and the u.k. prepares to lift covid restrictions, including its mask mandate, but coverings will still be expected indoors. good morning, good to be back. 6:00 in london, just gone 9:00 a.m. here. for me, the window dressing of central bank bidens is shifting. the pboc cut -- central-bank guidance is shifting. christine lagarde is still committed, and we wait for a host of central banks this week. don't run for the exit yet is the narrative that that's the

agenda for central banks. good morning. dani: good morning. it's not just central banks, it is a whole host of data, and all eyes will be on that, with the central banks changing window dressing, will the data flecked a different delta -- data reflect a different delta? will things start to slow down. economists are saying what we saw from china in cpi data bodes poorly for what we will get from the u.k., u.s. later this week. manus: i think you will see that awful word, i for occasion again. you have canada -- that awful word, bifurcation. you have canada and others. i think lagarde has reset the agenda. a transition to a new format,

what will the guidance be on the new format and sequencing, that is the key. dani: if you are an investor, how do you adjust to that new format? a market set up for global growth has to reckon with this host of central-bank decisions we are about to get. manus: the markets this morning, how do they look? dani: a pretty strong rebound in asian equities. friday, when we missed you dearly, the market was disappointing. the msi asia-pacific close to a racing gains for the year. a little bit of weakness in u.s. equities. we saw new records in the american benchmark friday. we have a bond market trading in range, but we are back above 1.3%. finally, the euro-dollar also in a tight range despite the news from the ecb and changes there. we have a dollar that is about

1.2 percent from its year-to-date high. sticking with the ecb, president lagarde has said investors should prepare for new guidance on monetary stimulus next week. ms. lagarde: we have a new framework that is unanimously approved by the governing council, and we are going to look, as we always do every six weeks, we will look at the circumstances, we are going to look at what forward guidance we need to revisit. we are going to look at the calibration of all of the tools we are using to make sure it is aligned with our new strategy. i think given the persistence you need to demonstrate to deliver on our commitment, the forward guidance will be revisited. francine: did they give you extra tools? in july, a bigger meeting, it is

not technical. ms. lagarde: we are going to communicate differently. what analysts and experts and journalists will see is a slightly different presentation of our monetary policy decision, and i hope it will be a simpler, crisper, and to the point, and as little drug on as possible. that is one. two, there will be a forward guidance review because we have to align with the strategy review we just completed. my sense is it will continue to be determined by maintaining favorable financing conditions in our economies. we want to continue to support this recovery that is underway. there will be interesting variations and changes. francine: when is the right time to talk about an exit strategy. ms. lagarde: not now.

we are still forcefully delivering under these exceptional circumstances using exceptional tools, which is the pandemic emergency program, which i expect to last at least until march, and possibly transition into a new format after march. that is what we see at the moment, but i think we need to be very flexible and not start, you know, creating the anticipation that the exit is in the next two weeks. manus: the ecb president, christine lagarde. we will have more of that exclusive conversation throughout the show and morning. our guest this morning is jane foley. something for everyone, but more

for the doves. all in. we mustn't create the anticipation of emergency tools are near an end. why such a muted response from the euro this morning when madame lagarde says she hopes to deliver clearer, simpler and crisper guidance? why such a phlegmatic response? jane: i suppose simpler communication would be welcome but the actual met -- actual message hasn't changed that much. they've changed the target a little bit, a 2% inflation target, a little low -- instead of a little low. they have raised it slightly. we know it will be dovish. there isn't much change in that. we knew that before she spoke that they would probably continue until march she has more or less confirmed that. although it will be interesting to see, it will be nice for the

commentators to see this clearer communication. i think the content won't change much. dani: you have kept your euro-dollar calls pretty steady at 117. what would it take for you to change your forecast to see a weakening further in the euro? jane: to be honest, i've had that target quite a long time and i think over the summer, i am thinking it will hold around current levels. my levels have not changed in the last three months. i think first of all, for the euro to be weaker, we would have to see considerable weakening in the inflation outlook and weakening in the outlook for growth. also the dollar is part of this equation. it has been now for months. i think the reason 117 and perhaps not 120 is anticipation that perhaps at the fomc, they

will keep it on the short end of the curve and keep the market wondering whether the first hike in the fed funds rate could come sooner. we've got jackson hole next month, an important park in the central bank calendar. but there are a couple of dynamics, and i think the bigger risk of change comes from the dollar side rather than the euro side. manus: jane, you worked for a central banker, your front running -- is with the dollar. let's go with it. you think we can maybe get a little hike earlier. i want to delve deeper. everyone is suggesting taper in the next cycle. i am looking at the forward, the one-month rate in five years is trading up 1.5%. this is where it gets interesting. the mutual rate is 2.5%. the market is saying the next cycle will be shorter and tighter than what we think a

neutral rate is. the five-year forwards are 1.4%. when the tightening comes, what scale will it the and will it put a lid on the dollar? jane: quite possibly. i think this is what the market is beginning to think about now in terms of, have we reached a peak growth? some of the data we have seen and commentary perhaps by chair powell begin to perhaps context this question. have we reached peak inflation? these are interesting questions that hopefully we will get a little bit this week. that's what the market is beginning to work out. for me, i think the yield curve, the shape of yields interesting for the dollar, the biggest focus all year. we have to remember the focus for the dollar is on the shorter end. the reason i've got 117 for six months and not 115 is because i don't think real rates are

strong enough to support the dollar. i think for now, this expectation that the cycle in the u.s. could be first off the mark in terms of hiking would give the dollar that little bit of extra momentum. dani: jane, we have more to chat about what it comes to the dollar and u.s. policy, so you will stay with us. let's get the first word news with simone foxman. simone: the british government is expected to issue guidance that people are expected to continue wearing masks in indoor spaces, even after restrictions are lifted in england july 19. the vaccine minister told the bbc that face coverings will not be mandatory, but there will be an expectation for people to wear them. g20 ministers endorsed a global corporate tax, but it faces domestic hurdles.

janet yellen was optimistic lawmakers can approve an international minimum rate of at least 15% this year as part of a fast track budget bill. the treasury secretary did not say if the plan would require a two thirds vote in the senate, and almost impossible get given republican opposition. it is coming to roma. italy won a dramatic euro final against england in penalty kicks. england scored first, the italians were in control for most of the rest of play. the equalizer was in the second half. extra time did not change much in the final shootout was ugly, with italy missing two kicks and the english a heartbreaking three. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus, dani?

manus: thank you very much. coming up, the u.s. treasury secretary heads to brussels to warn european counterparts that their planned digital levy could jeopardize a global tax deal. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. fresh from the gathering of g20 finance ministers in venice over the weekend, and the groups endorsement of the principles of a global corporate tax

agreement, u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen is in brussels this week and will urge eu leaders to reconsider plans for a digital levy. for more, maria tadeo joins us. the deal is done, but what about implementation? maria: yes, that is very much the point. we did get the biggest economies in the world approving and endorsing in a very public way this global tax proposal that would see corporate minimum tax of 15% for big multinationals and big tech. a pillar equally important for many countries is the billy -- ability to tax these companies where they make their services. there are a lot of details depending on the technical side, which they hope will get done by october. we still don't know the position of the irish government.

other european countries have said they cannot accept the 15%. the actual collection of taxes, the europeans told us over the weekend that they hope to the tax would be operational by 2023. many deadlines have been missed on that front. i would also point out the fact that the french had already hinted they wanted to go this -- this to go beyond 15%. that did not take hold over the weekend. in a lot of the european countries, companies already pay more than 15% de facto. it is a win to some extent, apolitical win that changes the conversation around tax and the trickle-down effect. but also the amount of tax we will see collected from this. manus: let's talk about janet yellen, lobbying against a

digital tax, because that would stand in the way of the global taxation deal. maria: yes, and she will be in brussels today meeting with european finance ministers. she was in venice. today we are focused on the european legislation. the eu is working on an eu digital tax. over the weekend i asked many of the finance ministers in italy about a tax that is truly just european. they managed to get a global agreement, but they were unable to explain this tax, or show the point of it, which makes it difficult for the u.s. government to sell this tax in congress. they will have to vote on this. this morning there is already speculation that yellen will ask european finance ministers to drop it, and they may consider

not dropping it delaying the tax for the time being. manus: ok, let's see what the message is from janet yellen. maria tadeo in russell's, thank you. our guest host is jane fully. -- foley. when you look at global risk, you have delta, growth, taper, a whole host of things and tax is but one of them. when you look at the back half of the year, i started the show saying i thought there was a redressing of central bank narratives from the guard and the pboc. does this put us -- from lagarde and the pboc. how does this play into the currency world? jane: one of the central banks you did not mention was the reserve of new zealand. they will keep their policy certainly this week. many economists are anticipating

they will be hiking later in the year. norway likely to be hiking as soon as september. i think when we look at china, that is interesting. we did have the cut to the reserve ratios and that does perhaps give a signal they are worried that growth is slowing too much. china, the growth had surged at the tail end of last year, ahead of much of the other industrialized countries. i think that one is perhaps further ahead. i think it is interesting to see what is happening in central banks, but i think you are quite right. i think there is a difference here between the different economies. but the markets need to watch china and the u.s., because clearly these have been the drivers of growth, and if these have peaked already, it is a signal for markets. dani: we will return to china later. when it comes to the question of

em, you mentioned some central banks are hiking. in latin america they are. some have said they are unsure what to do with em, because the dollar is so uncertain. what would be your assessment of that? jane: i think they are probably right and i would more or less agree. we have seen mexico, for instance, a hawkish surprise. brazil with a significant hawkish surprise. they are really well performing currencies in the last core -- quarter. i think the dollar came in third. for the emerging markets, it's not only the domestic news, but how much will the fed , the timeframe -- fed go, the timeframe, and how much will the dollar go, and that could put a

damper on em. em has to be judged by domestic fundamentals too, and it would be dangerous to put them in one pot and deal with them in the same way. but with a stronger dollar, that is a negative attentional he for emerging markets. dani: jane, you are going to stick with us. that is jane foley. coming up, we will continue to talk china, and the rrr cut, sending out a warning on the fragility of economic recovery. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think despite monetary policy, fiscal policy will

likely be the name of the game in the second half of this year. >> china's flexing of its policy muscles is definitely causing investors to take a step back until they get a better sense of where this will lead. >> from a risk assets perspective, it does send a positive signal, and thus put a floor under certain allocations. dani: that was reaction from some guests about china cutting its reserve requirement shows for 50 basis points for all banks. jane is still with us to help us dig through developments. it feels like not that long ago we had concerns, or at least the pboc had concerns about a strong renminbi, given the cut to the triple r's and growth in china, is that strength ready you on -- yuam over -- yuan over?

jane: if the markets get wind of that, that is negative for the renminbi. since the middle of june, we've seen the stronger dollar coming up too. i think for now, the market is more relaxed and no doubt the pboc is much more relaxed about the value of the renminbi. but it depends upon growth here. we can perhaps turn away from that for now but i think at one point those concerns could come back depending on what happens with growth. one of the interesting things about growth right now, it's not necessarily a slowdown in demand, it is also considerable supply was -- supply constraints slowing down growth potential. some of the production data in some economies. maybe that brings inflation into the context, which does shine a different light on how central banks could react to this. manus: and certainly could

shift. simon flynt this morning said the yuan is likely english football team, they're beating is likely behind them. the world cup, they can always come back. ozzie qe down over 1% on the month -- aussie-kiki down over 1% on the month. jane: we have a real focus from the rba on employment, they became really dovish on the outlook. they have set for years, australian companies want to keep costs an interval, and they are focusing on keeping labor costs down. we've not seen much wage inflation in australia for decades. that is a concern. lowe remaining dovish, and on the other hand, the market is thinking perhaps the rbnz will

hike. a different stance, and i think the new zealand dollar will remain supported. manus: we have to leave it there. jane foley. this is bloomberg.

dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. it has just gone a: 30 a.m. in london. i am dani burger alongside manus cranny in dubai. here are today's top stories. >> there will be a forward guidance review, because we have to align with the strategy review we just completed. dani: christine lagarde tells investors to prepare for new

guidance on monetary stimulus next week. more from our exclusive conversation with the ecb president this hour. progress on taxation. ministers from the g20 endorse a global corporate tax deal. janet yellen optimistic u.s. lawmakers can approve the 15% minimum rate this year. and mixed messaging. the u.k. repairs to lift covid restrictions, including its mask mandate, but the vaccine minister says face coverings will still be expected indoors. good morning and happy monday, manus. i know for a lot of investors and probably everyone in england, it is a tired and sad morning. amongst the tears, they have to figure out what will happen with all of these various central-bank decisions as we start to concern ourselves with have we reached peak global growth? what we hear from policymakers so far this week will have a big difference on how you trade the

change in global growth. manus: yes, and as i have said, it is a redressing of the central bank decision, sort of the harvey nichols display of what to expect. the ecb goes for a light touch, what will the rbnz do? if you look at the pboc versus christine lagarde, i am surprised the euro has not moved lower. in many ways, it was a reiteration of what we already knew. for her, it was about what shape does the clearer and crisper guidance take from the ecb? and powell speak later this week. it is a big week. dani: as dane said, the euro path and so much in em is dependent on the dollar. the dollar is looking more uncertain. powell, that will be hugely important for determining where

the euro goes, it is stuck at about 118. manus: she might do a bit of readjustment over the summer. to the markets. jay powell will speak, you will get the rbnz. we had triple records on friday across the u.s. the s&p 500 down by two tens of 1% today. as we going to earnings season, banks and tech in focus. looking at revenue rises of between 30% and 50% across the banks. the collapse in yield is running into a little bit of a brick wall. have we reached a sense of exhaustion in terms of pricing a slowdown in the global economy and the delta variant? the aussie lighter this morning, a little more of a concern about cases in sydney, the delta

variant and concern rising there. at the bottom of your screen, you have the yuan. strength in the face of a triple r cuts. our its strongest days behind it? christine lagarde is putting investors on notice. she says you should prepare for new guidance, monetary stimulus in the next 10 days, and saying fresh measures may be brought in here to support the economy. she spoke exclusively to francine lacqua. ms. lagarde: you could argue that to an extent in the past, the inflation aim was below but close to, and now we are saying to percent. -- 2%. it is a marginally higher as a target and might take a little longer, but frankly i don't think this is what utters most. what matters most is the

forceful, persistent and acceptance and tolerance for the fact that it might result in moderate variation relative to targets. francine: what does it change for your july 22 meeting? ms. lagarde: we have a new framework that is unanimously approved by the governing council, and we are going to look as we always do every six weeks, look at the circumstances , we are going to look at what forward guidance we need to revisit. we are going to look at the calibration of all of the tools we are using to make sure it is aligned with our new strategy. i think given the persistence that we need to demonstrate to deliver on our commitment, forward guidance will be revisited. francine: on july 22, it was

always a big meeting, but now it is a bigger meeting, because of technical changes. ms. lagarde: it will be important because number one, we will communicate differently. what analysts and journalists will see is a slightly different presentation of our monetary policy and as little jargon as possible. that is one. two, there will be a forward guidance review, because we have to align with review we just completed. my sense is we will continue to be determined by maintaining favorable financing conditions

in our economies. because we wanted to continue to support this recovery underway. so yeah, there will be some interesting variations and changes, both in terms of the substance, because of the word guidance has to be aligned with the strategy, and because the way in which we will communicate, i hope it will be clearer. francine: does it give you new tools? ms. lagarde: in the strategy review, we do two things. one is, aced on the fact that -- based on the fact that our unconventional tools have been affected in avoiding a complete collapse we would have had as a result of the pandemic, we did not have that. based on that effectiveness, we have used those unconventional tools as part and puzzle -- part and parcel tools in the toolbox. whether you look as forward guidance, asset purchase programs, targeted refinancing operations, or whether you look at -- i forget in the process.

no, that is it. and on top of our policy rates, including negative territory. all of that is in the toolbox. we are planning for the next few years, at least five years, we are saying we reserve the option to create new tools. it is very flexible in that respect. francine: when is the right time to talk about an exit strategy? ms. lagarde: not now. we are still forcefully delivering under exceptional circumstances, using exceptional tools, which is the pandemic emergency purchase program, which i expect to last at least until march, and possibly to

transition into a new format after march. that's what we see at the moment. but i think we need to be very flexible and not start, you know , creating the anticipation that the exit is in the next few weeks. francine: but march? i guess the biggest concern -- i don't know what your biggest concern in how we interpret central banks, if something happens and inflation picks up and it is not telegraphed to the markets and there is an ugly event. ms. lagarde: i would not be so concerned about and inflation pick up because there will be an inflation pick up for sure. we are seeing it in most advanced economies and beyond. that is something we regard as transitory, caused by energy prices, commodity prices. we are very attentive to the supply chain to see whether that

mechanism is a demonstrated throughout the chain, commodities and energy, to prices and consumer prices and how the markets operate. mostly, we are looking at wages to see whether that will have an impact on wages, negotiations and salaries and all the rest of it. for the moment, we are seeing that as transitory. dani: turning to the july 22 governing council session. that was our exclusive conversation with ecb president christine lagarde. let's get the first word news with simone foxman. good morning. simone: the south african president extended hands on alcohol sales and most public gatherings for two weeks as the government struggles to bring a third wave of coronavirus infections under control. the country will remain on virus alert level four, the second-highest, although there will be adjustments to some

curbs, including allowing restaurants to resume operating at half seating capacity, and gyms to reopen. richard branson and virgin galactic have completed a long-awaited test flight to the edge of space. branson and five employees experienced weightlessness as the unity plane reached a peak altitude of about 85 kilometers above earth. the journey kicks off a landmark month for space tourism, with jeff bezos also set to fly on a rocket made by his company, lou origin. -- blue origin. >> for their children, we have to build as many spaceships as we can as fast as we can so that one day those kids will have a chance at a similar experience to what i had. and that will do. simone: it is coming to rome. italy won a dramatic euro 2020

final against england in penalty kicks. england scored the first goal, but the italians were in control for most of the rest of play. the equalizer was in the second half. extra time did not change much in the final shootout was ugly, italy missing to kicks and the english heartbreaking three. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus, a tough break for england, but i have to say, 497 days away from the world cup here in doha. manus: we will be hunkering down for that. a tough time for the english fans and the nation, but they were in great form going into this. dani: yes. manus: let's stick with that showdown, italy and england. we have some different papers

this morning. royalty even turned up in the locker room after a few let's show -- locker room after. let's show some of these. we are the champions. a sign of rebirth. one country, one victory, a proof of pride. a similar theme from republi ca, claiming europe is ours. a resplendent victory for italy. dani: it could not be any more different than the u.k. the entirety of the u.k. coming in this morning, it was the weather matching the mood, it was raining and everyone sat. and the papers, the front pages hurt. the daily express and the mail

running a picture of a hug, it was sad because he was a star during the game. before the show starts, i was saying i wonder how many people will show up late to the trading desk this morning, they might not be on top form because they are sad. manus: it will hit the mood, that is for sure. a lot of people staying up late can always impact the psyche of the market. a pride of lions. dani: we will stick with england as well, because it is not just about football, it is about the listing of virtually all covid-19 -- lifting of virtually all covid-19 restrictions on july 19 even as cases surge across the country. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "daybreak: europe." the u.k. government has set and issued new guidance that people are expected to continue to wear masks indoors and enclosed spaces, even after covid restrictions are lifted in england on july 19. let's get more with our analyst. sam, we are cognizant of why we wear masks to protect others and reduce transmission. here we are, restrictions are lifted you still have to wear a mask inside, but it is not a rule and not a law and not guidance. mass confusion?

sam: mass mask confusion. that's the problem we are dealing with. the government -- the prime minister, when he announced he would make the final decision on the 12th obviously had left himself the option to change any of the narrative, and here we are doing it on an aspect of this reopening that could have been very simple, you could do a bunch of stuff, just keep wearing masks indoors, on trains, and supermarkets and shops. now they are backtracking a bit and it is a bit of a mess. dani: there are also a lot of videos yesterday, people close together on the streets. obviously it is a big moment for england and everyone is excited, but you look for data, the rate of covid among men is higher, considering what happened during the euros.

looking at yesterday, people crammed in, waiting to get into the various stadiums, the it wimbley or wimbledon, does this translate to a super-spreader event, especially on the brink of lifting restrictions? sam: at the end of the day, i think it would be surprising if this did not lead to something. we do have over 90% of people who have antibodies in their blood, but we don't know how effective that is, it's just a number that's nice to look at. let's just hope, the way we saw this happen, and i don't know if the government actually had a choice, given the momentous occasion, people probably would have gathered in pubs and at homes. but the volume of people together, i am really worried. dani: definitely something to

keep an eye on. sam, thank you for joining us this morning. coming up, richard branson's long-awaited spaceflight is a success, this ahead of his plan to debut space tourism flights next year. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." turning to the space race, billionaire richard branson's long-awaited test flight taken alongside five of his virgin galactic employees, bolsters the company's plan to take tourism trips next year. the unity space plane reached 53

miles above the earth before returning home about an hour after taking off. branson spoke to ed ludlow about the experience. >> i had been practicing some words to say to kids for some time. once i had done those words, to be able to unbuckle and just take off and look through the massive windows, and then the spaceship was upside down, and take in the earth from space, it was something i have dreamt of since i was a kid. it was completely and utterly awesome. and yeah, one of those dreams come true. i still think i will wake up any minute. ed: you did touch back down.

you said the feeling of weightlessness was indescribable, but could you have an attempt for me? richard: well... it is just the most... it is -- it is more than floating, looking at the other three beneath me, floating as well, and looking out through these gigantic windows at this stunningly beautiful earth below. like pristine sky, the strength of the blues and blacks, and we were in space. i have always sort of pitched what it would be like, the ride up and back, and never realized the whole experience would be so vivid. woo.

ed: beyond the satisfaction of your own goals being achieved, what does today symbolize for the company and all of the children present earlier? richard: for the children, we've got to get tilting as many spaceships as we can as fast as we can, so that one day those kids will have a chance to have a similar experience to what i had. and that we will do. we also have launched a local raffle today so that two kids, it is $10 for a pair of tickets, and if they win the raffle, they can go up, and that raffle will hopefully enable many people to go up that could never have dreamt about going to space. manus: by a $10 ticket and you can go to space. a unique experience. he is a very cool man to interview, and well done to

emily and ed, great coverage. go to bloomberg.com, the whole thing is fantastic. the three minute sequence is brilliant. dani: just hearing him describing the feeling of going to space -- this is a man who one time tried to fly around the world in a hot air balloon. that was not successful. glad to see this had more success for him. manus: yeah, look, he is one of those i suppose icons. he in many ways, i suppose, laid the groundwork for people like elon musk to dream. i remember when he launched virgin atlantic and it came this symbol of every other airline trying to attain that level in the skies in terms of economy, premier economy, way ahead of everybody else on the upper-class product could -- product. there you go, there is the detaching.

dani: really incredible pictures. and we have jeff bezos next and a few days and that will be interesting to see. we will definitely cover it for you here on "bloomberg daybreak: europe." that is it for us, the european open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪

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>> good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards in london. mark cudmore joins me in singapore to take us through all of the market action this hour. here are your top headlines.