is something we should be encouraged about. >> is a lot of negative pressure. one thing to communicate that is another earnings season. >> we are looking at nominal and real yields and recognizing we are truly in uncharted territory. >> it's really about the fed getting the economy going. >> real wages today are still below what they were in the 1970's. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city and our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." equity futures down 11 on the s&p 500, of the week begins tomorrow. tom: it will be a really exceptional week. with inflation views, of week begins tomorrow and it's good

one out of three of us is rested. >> welcome back. if you looked at some of the commentary about this growth scare and then looked at the curb -- price, -- lisa: that was my impression. i could tell he really upset about it. the pendulum of room switched back to gloomy even without me. i will say it doesn't seem coherent to your point, that doesn't seem to be the same concern in equities for the earnings week that's expected to be a blockbuster. i do wonder how much is technical and how much this has to do with overseas buying. they are still calling for that. >> that's positive. people are still optimistic when you look at reports. jonathan: welcome home. tom: i just think romain went

down in flames trying to out gloom abramowitz. what is it say? we were unable to get out the post. >> i will give you a tutorial later on in the day. there is a feeling confirmed talking about the lack of confirmation of the gloom and bond markets. those credit spreads saying fairly tight. you're not seeing the concern about refinancing amid an otherwise slow down being predicted. jonathan: lisa with a bit of pop. you can tell lisa is rested and we are not. tom: some of us went to sleep last night. jonathan: we are not going to football talk just yet. 4350 on your s&p 500. yields coming two or three basis points. we will touch on europe later in

the hour. your euro negative 2/10 of 1%. lisa: thank you for setting me up saying the week starts tomorrow. a rather slow day. there are a couple of really important things we will be watching. boris johnson is expected to confirm the end covert restrictions from july 19. he announced this last week. i find this interesting because there is a growing concern, it's kind of unclear what these are. is it too loose given the fact the delta variant keeps picking up. it comes in the backdrop of the cases rising to levels not seen in months. how big of a concern is that going to be for him. i'm doing this just for you, of the u.s. will sell in 10's. looking at the internal dynamics of demand and supply, the idea is have we seen pico growth concerns. do we see that bid continue to

come in. yields crying to lower with a strong bid for the securities. or are we seeing people pullback and buy into what the analysts are predicting. do you see that softening in the internal dynamics. janet yellen says the meeting in brussels should be talking about that 15% minimum global tax for corporations that do operate internationally. interesting to see how much it pushes back on the digital levy. -- google and facebook, the likes of the big tech in the united states, will that be inconsistent with a 15% global minimum tax, a very controversial point. will she get more aggressive today. jonathan: we will catch up with our washington correspondent. >> i've got to regroup. i fell asleep halfway through it.

>> is just such a foreign game. i tried to watch it, i thought his first half was incredibly strong and then he disappeared. why are they doing penalty shots? just let them play until they fall over. jonathan: i understand the pain of a penalty shootout. a highly likable football team, one we have an ad for a long time. it hurt those young players to miss those penalties. we've seen that many times before and we've seen those players bounce back. missing a major penalty in 1994, coming back in 98. it is really tough. congratulations, they have so much to be helpful about -- hopeful about. tom: it was really evident italy was the better team. why was italy better?

jonathan: i think it comes down to marco. they dominated midfield and you saw that they had the edge. if i was going to push back on anything, i think there is so much fantastic attacking talent in that english squad that i would like to see more of it. that would be my only take away. we didn't see enough. tom: the way i look at it, calvin phillips of leeds, he had one good kick. jonathan: you want to do haircuts? tom: they were the bright light on the field for me. jonathan: that was five minutes of magic.

the balance cocktail for that match with a good british gin. >> i figured you fell asleep because of the gym and not because of the game. morgan stanley investment management, andrew, let's forget the football. we have the data tomorrow. cpi. going down to the back end. what will you be focused on this week? andrew: the conversation is so entertaining. the reason the market is at an all-time high, rates are low and earnings keep coming in strong and it's really hard to get a big correction when companies continue to beat and guidance goes up. whether it's one and a quarter one and a half, i think it supports equities at these levels. as long as that continues,

that's fine. we have a very strong cpi which is coming this week. that could unnerve the market. so far, it's been a continued strong earnings season. >> you and i have never seen a boom economy like this. what does it do to two parts of the revenue line, of the unit dynamic and the price dynamic. andrew: on the surface i think it would be easy to say costs are going up and that will squeeze margins, but so far that scenario hasn't played out because people are passing on those. chemical inputs are going up. we are passing through and our retailers are letting us. i think americans are flush with cash. lisa: it does seem like smaller companies have suffered more in

the ability to pass along these. talking about how the supply chain are affecting the smaller businesses more. does this reconfirm that big tech play. those large companies taking over and being dominant. as you've seen the shift back to that in recent weeks. andrew: yes, a long-term that is a very valid scenario. i do think it has swung too far the other way. when they went to one and three-quarter percent, while you were gone, a lot of people saying 1% of the 10 year. so i think we just and that 1%, big tech does well. some of these are stretched, they've done very well and i think it's the opportunity to say maybe the economy is better

than what recently the mod markets would say. maybe it's a chance to pick up some of those financials and some of the energy stocks i think is very intriguing here. jonathan: i think the question we've got to ask continuously is why you shouldn't just buy the index here, why guess the game. why try to be a bond market strategist in a world like this when it's so difficult to call the bond market. >> we look at the statistics. that's really the foundation of our shop. if you look at the statistics right now over any timeline, that is a difficult conversation. >> just is to give people an idea. if i survey people in this bond market right now and tell them what it will be tomorrow and then ask them how this bond market will respond, they have no idea right now.

we are split right down the middle. some people might say it will drive lower yields. how do you call the sectors within the equity market right now when apparently the yield is all that matters. lisa: there is the idea of how much liquidity, people don't fully understand because i don't know where it's going. versus into financial assets. they don't have a sense of growth. are we in peak growth time or are we looking at a slowdown because of some of the covid dynamics. >> it was so nice not to have this gloom. all that matters is surveillance research. what we've come up with over italy and england is the research that the --

jonathan: down 14 on the s&p. equity futures negative on the s&p, positive on the nasdaq. yields, in a couple of basis points. kicking off the trading week stateside. this is bloomberg. >> european central bank president christine lagarde is telling investors to prepare for new guidance on monetary stimulus in 10 days. an interview with francine lacqua, she also signaled fresh measures might be brought in next year's. after the current emergency bond program ends. in cuba, state run media is acknowledging the --

they faced growing hunger after they were hit by slumping revenue since the pandemic struck. what it calls neoliberal opponents. richard branson has boosted their plan. branson and five employees rocketed into space from a carrier aircraft high above new mexico. they reach an altitude of more than 53 miles above the earth before the plane glided back down. a fundraising run completed at $37.6 billion. walmart joined investors including softbank and $3.6 billion.

>> this deal will end the race to the bottom. instead of asking the question who can offer the lowest tax rates, we will allow all our countries to compete on the basis of economic fundamentals. on the skill of our workforces, on the capacity to innovate and the strength of our legal and economic institutions. jonathan: u.s. treasury secretary. good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. your s&p down 14 coming into monday. we are lower by a of 1%. a bit again, yields heading south by two basis points. we have to talk a little bit about europe later. euro-dollar negative 2/10 of 1%.

didi global down 4.82%. reporting it is had to take down additional apps in china. just amazing to see this company tap u.s. capital markets for several billion dollars and then clamp down. tom: how do the american banks respond to this? jonathan: we have not seen and i don't know. according to the dow jones, they are pulling their ipo. lisa: we don't want to tease people to actually get involved. the concern the u.s. could take some of this information or get access to their data. tom: nasdaq leads the way with

everything else. greg calls it a crucial week in washington. it begins a crucial six weeks of heated debate over a set of issues. annmarie hordern's eyes of glazed over. she joins us right now about all that we see here in washington. this headline breaking right now . jonathan: the eu will postpone a digital push for a global tax. this administration, of the previous administration pushing them to do to push to one side. tom: just goes right to the richard rubin essay. it was really complete about you've got to be kidding me, but this has to get through congress. they are not going to do it.

>> is the two pillars talking about in the wall street journal, some of what happened over the weekend. and what potentially congress could get through maybe that 15% global minimum tax that seems to be what janet yellen was alluding to. that other pillar that's going on with the eu right now it's more about the digital tax, that potentially needs two thirds of senate approval. there are a ton of questions that lie ahead for this. tom: the idea of reconciliation majority vote takes it versus treaty which i believe is 60 votes. that's a difficult challenge frankly for any president. jonathan: the other issue is they are set to go the other way on a digital tax. what could stop them. lisa: the u.s. government has been trying to have them postpone this digital tax while

they come up with a comprehensive oecd to get done a more comprehensive global tax. if they go their own way, it could be harder for the administration to push through any sort of global taxation through congress. there is a ton of questions. you still have holdouts. hungary, estonia, ireland. this takes away their leverage to get companies to go to their country. what kind of negotiating leverage does janet yellen have given the fact she needs to wrangle together congress to get the u.s. on board and the parameters of that? >> it is a very good question. right now the leverage they have is global momentum. i spoke to the german finance minister after his meeting with the secretary and he said the train is going.

given the fact you have so many countries even in the developing world coming on board. you go to the point that this goes the hands of congress. republicans do not like this and it will be very difficult potentially through budget reconciliation they can get 15% global minimum tax. that other pillar, they need two thirds of the senate to vote for it. lisa: senators and congressmen had been off for two weeks, they come back to washington this week. how high on their agenda will this minimum tax rate versus the infrastructure and some of the other proposals? >> you guys in new york keep saying the week starts tomorrow. in washington it starts today. they are landing today and it is all about infrastructure. there is also a timeline, the leader -- majority leader senator schumer said on friday be careful with your august recess, we don't get infrastructure done, he wants to keep them here in washington dc.

a budget resolution that needs to -- that will give the framework of the human infrastructure and it's also about watching what the senate does. it will introduce the infrastructure, the bipartisan deal first or go for the more comprehensive multitrillion dollar infrastructure. it will be an important week in washington and the first of many. jonathan: we have to cut back. two or three weeks in washington and anne-marie is already throwing out you guys in new york. what a change. tom: she hasn't lunched at hay adams three days in a row. jonathan: i'm excited for balance of power later 12:00 p.m. eastern time, a special program. with you guys in new york. and freshly minted washington correspondent annmarie hordern in d.c..

>> this will be great. we will have fun. i want to do a remote from ben's chili bowl but i got shut down. jonathan: i'm looking forward to it. thank you. tom keene coming up at midday. looking forward to that. looking ahead, 4345 on the s&p. a little bit of a lift, your why can be found in the bond market. treasuries are firmer. lisa: negative real yields going more negative. the idea is people are not expecting that bid to end anytime soon. jonathan: coming off all-time

highs from the s&p 500. this -- counting you down to when the week begins in new york. tuesday with j.p. morgan bank earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪

(woman) i don't want to look like this anymore. (man) what is happening to my body? (woman) why can't i lose weight? (announcer) you may be suffering from insulin resistance. measure your waist. females measuring more than 35 inches and males measuring more than 40 inches may have insulin resistance. to learn how to reverse insulin resistance and lose weight effectively, go online to golo.com. once again, that's golo.com.

>> here is the price action this monday morning. coming off all-time highs into monday. just a notch lower. we head north on the nasdaq 100 by little more than a 10th of 1%. i will get to that in just a moment. for the week ahead it's about the bank earnings. they start tomorrow with j.p. morgan. this is your cue, the catalyst for everything that happens every single day. we come in about two or three basis points. today i think we get $58 million of three-year notes and 30 billion of 10-year note's. lisa went through those earlier. three or four basis points on 30. it's been a flatter curve.

it's been a challenge for bank stocks. look out for cpi. i cannot seem to find a consensus not on what the data will be at how this market will respond to the data. euro-dollar just a little bit weaker. negative about 2/10 of 1%. we have had the guide changed over the ecb in terms of the mandate. below close to 2%. because you've made that change you've got to change the guidance as well. i'm interested to see how that will change. >> i'm watching the german finance minister. that will be a huge deal. we have a terrific set of voices lined up to give you perspective on what clearly was an event from july and august.

michelle myers at bank of america. it just became immediately visible in the zeitgeist from -- for parsing american consumption in gdp in our strange markets. michelle, 9.5% gdp statistic, frame right now the bank of america guesstimate of a pass from a boom economy to a normal economy. how does this look? michelle: that's the big question. people are trying to figure out what the moderation and growth will look like. we know what we are tracking in q2 is not feasible. there will be a slowdown in the data is indicating that. it is falling in a manageable way all things considered. when you look ahead, we very much believe the economy will

still be growing well above trend. you will see somewhere in the order of 5% or 6% on average in the next two quarters. it's half the pace we had in the second quarter but we can't imagine the economy will grow at that kind of pace given the capacity. tom: dovetail bank of america securities research into what you and ethan are doing in economics. what is the corporate response to the economy you imagine? michelle: businesses are investing, businesses are seeing consumers go out and spend. they have cash on hand and they were actively spending on goods up until recently where there's been some slowing and. without a doubt, the consumers are participating. when you see that as a company you want to meet that demand.

that's what we're seeing in the dataflow. lisa: why is it not necessarily the case as portrayed by the bond market. how inconsistent is the bond market with some of these projections? michelle: i know there's been debates about fundamentals and technical factors, but i think beyond that, there seems to a storyline or sentiment in the market but we can have strong growth the next few quarters, that still part of the payback from this incredibly artificial time in the economy around covid . what is the underlying trend, what's the structural trend? will we return to this environment of low underlying growth. where demographics are still quite negative, where there is

still disinflationary psychology. you can see in -- no -- lisa: he really pointed to the employment population ratio, this participation rate is still being too low to justify tapering. how much can the fed overwhelm some of these actual economic inputs with their stimulus. do we even have to look at the fundamentals or are the fundamentals the amount of liquidity pumped in by the federal reserve. michelle: what the fed is doing today in terms of buying, and what they are communicating. it's not just the fed. creating all types of challenges. but going back to your comments around what they said, it's

super important with the underlying growth rate is in the economy. it's defined by how much capacity is there for the economy to grow. we rely on labor force participation, people going out and working. those two factors are super important to keep an ion -- eye on. jonathan: you said the following, we look to him to be more dovish. why is that? michelle: he's talking on behalf of the committee. we know officials are looking for a hike next year. there are a lot of voices out there. we are growing kind of anxious on what they are seeing on the inflation front. we don't think powell is in that camp of a 2020 height. the testimony to congress we

think will get a sense of that. it's really going to reinforce how they think about maximum employment which is for broad-based labor market recovery. one where the inequality we have seen in the last several decades could be a result of that to some extent. i think what chair powell is trying to accomplish with the new framework. jonathan: i read the monetary policy report later this week. the post-pandemic labor market and the characteristics of maximum employment may well be different from those of 2020. what do you think they are getting out there? >> they have changed the definition of maximum employment. it's not just getting the unemployment rate down to 4.5%, it's about getting an environment where that unemployment rate is down across the economy.

it is not going to be perfect. at some point you will get this tension between the tightness of the labor market versus underlying price pressures. tom: you are going to be out there in the lawn chairs for the saturday speech, are you telling me we have a central bank committing social policy now with monetary tools? >> it is not social policy. the fed is clear they are not trying to move part of the economy versus the other. that's fiscal policy. in order to have a complete recovery and one we think will be able to continue because you have broad-based wage growth and the ability to see broad-based wage pressures, needs to be a complete recovery. that was the lesson they learned in the last cycle.

if you don't have the economy increasing across the spectrum, it may end up not lasting or you end up damaging your long-run potential even more. tom: i am just dazzled by all the theory. can we go back to core values and core knowledge? how is the housing market? this is how you became famous. do you believe in this housing rally? if i was by chance north in westchester and if i loaded the boat right now on 1.7 5 million, am to enjoy that when this natural disasters over? michelle: for anybody moving to westchester, -- i think there's been a lot of moving clearly. we have seen that in terms of the volume.

part of that is because after the pandemic, folks thought differently about where they want to live. part of it is because people had cash they want to spend. they went and bought goods, housing is one of them. there was distortion in the timing of the housing market and we are still picking up the pieces from that. you can see the supply side was not at all ready to accommodate this big increase in demand. it froze when the pandemic hit. inventory was very low and demand greatly exceeded expectations. that created a big price increase. we will see and we are already seeing the highs at the end of last year. we are seeing now construction start to pick up, inventory levels start to pick up, that will take off some of the pressure. are we going to the housing crash? no. are we going to see a further

slowdown? yes. price appreciation could come off of these levels that don't add up with what you are seeing in the broader economy. jonathan: lovely to catch up. looking at key inflation data tomorrow. talking of picking up the pieces. the employment to population ratio gets lower, snaps back in the improvement is totally stopped of the last couple of months. tom: that's in the research. jonathan: conversation on what happens in this labor market. we will talk to the vice dean of public health next. this is bloomberg. >> with the first word news.

the european union will postpone its tax on online sales. instead the block will focus on the broader deals for a minimum global tax. agreed to by the largest economies. several economies have been strongly opposed to a digital tax. in haiti, a new twist into who killed the country's president. police have arrested a man accused of flying in on a private jet and working with suspects. the man was identified. police say he was in contact with a security firm that recruited suspect. the u.s. infectious disease chief anthony fauci says ideological rigidity preventing people from getting coronavirus shots. vaccination rates are lagging in southern and midwestern states. he made the rounds on morning talk shows for the position that the vaccines are safe.

microsoft has agreed to buy security software maker risk iq. the price, more than $500 million in cash. they may cloud software that help clients understand where and how they could be attacked. a hopeful sign for movie theaters. "black widow" scored the highest grossing debut since the onset of a pandemic. it took an $80 million in u.s. and canadian theater ticket sales. it also generated more than 60 million from fans paying $30 to watch it at home. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the bad news is we have a nasty variant.

the good news is we have a vaccine that works against it. that's why we are concerned is because we have a schism between some states in some areas at the very low level of vaccination which is really unfortunate. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. the price action this monday morning. given the commentary would you believe three weeks of gains at an all-time high? we call back 14, down about a third of 1%. firmer bond market. yields heading south. going into cpi tomorrow on bank earnings, the nasdaq firmer. tom: just as a general indicator into earnings season, 17.38, that is fine. it's not 15. record highs thursday and

friday. right now with an update, joshua from johns hopkins. professor sharfstein, i want to go with what came up this weekend, found she says there is a schism -- dr. fauci says there is a schism, a break, separation. what do you do on the delta variant if you are in a part of america that is 70% vaccinated?> >> there are parts of america that are 40% vaccinated with 35% vaccinated and those of the parts that are seen not only an increase in cases, but hospitalizations from the delta variant. it is here we go again and those places. more generally it reflects a big problem that we are having. tom: i get that but what do we

do in the parts of the country that are 60% or 70% more vaccinated? do we just go on with our lives or are we to amend our lives because of the part of america is down to 38%? >> as long as there are places at 38%, the places at 70 or 80% will be at risk. now the people who are vaccinated right now are pretty protected, but what about people who have conditions that the vaccine doesn't work so well for them? they are immunocompromised, or children, or some particularly older adults. lisa: this is a crucial point i haven't heard before. the vaccine does not work for certain individuals. how many people are we talking about? >> probably hundreds of thousands, maybe a little bit more than a million who have

such significant medical conditions that they are not going to react to the vaccine. we don't know exactly how much risk they are at, but it looks like they are not responding to the vaccine as well and some people may not be responding at all. they'll have to worry they come in contact with someone who is infectious. if you are in an area without very many cases, the risk is low. but as long as the virus is spreading in parts of the country, that risk will be there. lisa: i think the confusion stems from the uncertainty around with the threshold is to return to normal life. the u.k. is struggling with this as well. does it become a public health issue when we have individuals who might suffer but as a whole, the health care system won't be torpedoed by a lot of cases. >> i think it matters the health care system is going to be stable and that does allow for a

lot of things to return to normal. but it still makes it unfortunate for people who have to take extra protections if they are doing that because other people have not decided to be vaccinated. it's even worse for those who decided not to be vaccinated because they are at risk for getting very sick or dying. tom: how close are we to an under 12 vaccine? >> i think you have to wait for the studies to be done. right now the companies are looking for the right dose to make sure they have a dose that is both able to create the protection but without side effects, so until we know, it's hard to say. these studies are going on and we will have the early readouts in the next couple of months. jonathan: why aren't we vaccinating children? >> right now we are vaccinating adolescents because they can get

covid, many of them have paid they can get severe cases of covid and pass it on. covid is as bad or worse depending on the prevalence compared to a bad flu season and we vaccinated against the flu. it's a horrible disease when kids get it severely and they can have long -- jonathan: we don't shut things down for the flu but we do with this. if we are at a stage where we can treat this as flu, why aren't we treating it as flu? >> i think going in to the fall we basically are going to be. we want kids to be vaccinated and they should be black -- they should be back in school. lisa: where have we gone wrong when we look at the political divide between republicans were more likely -- inclined not to get vaccinated and democrats more inclined to get vaccinated. where have we gone wrong when comes to messaging? >> that's a great question.

you wouldn't imagine a political divide in cancer treatment or in how to treat your ear infection. but suddenly we have what appears to be a political divide and whether to get a safe and effective vaccine for a horrible and lethal illness. i think the roots of that are probably complicated. i think it is a very bad development but right-wing media have sort of adopted this as a political call to arms. if you believe in -- that you don't like the biden administration then you shouldn't get vaccinated. that message is a terrible thing for public health. it is really irresponsible. people should make a decision to protect themselves based on the science. jonathan: got to leave it there. thank you. on a divided america still on an important issue. tom: what is your take on the united kingdom?

67 thousand people storming wimbley last night. what is your uptake on the oddity i read about the united kingdom in this pandemic? jonathan: this is an observation, not a judgment. what's cleared to happen is july 19 things will reopen and we will shift to individual responsibility in the united kingdom and we will see what happens. it will be a very important case study for the rest of the world for a country that has managed to vaccinate a larger portion of society. that was the goal, to protect the most vulnerable and then turn towards individual responsibility and that seems to be the direction of travel in the u.k. for the next couple of weeks. tom: part of the complexities here we are seeing will be driving forward this conversation. jonathan: coming up at 12:00 eastern. your equity markets, 4347 on the

s&p. -13, down a third of 1%. your trading queue comes from the bond market. for our audience worldwide, what a week ahead we have for you. right here on bloomberg. ♪

(announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body.

since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot. pain and stress is the only thing you have to lose. get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com.

>> we are going to have another year or two above trend growth, and i think that is something we should be pretty encouraged about. >> this a lot of negative pressure. one of the things that could alleviate that would be another season. >> we are looking at nominal and real yields and recognize that we are truly in uncharted territory >> i think it is really about the fed getting the economy to full employment. >> even with the growth we have seen, real wages are still below what they were in the 1970's. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: get set for a busy week. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. monday morning, good morning. down 13 on the s&p to 4347. tom: