>> ever since we are seeing consumers go out and spend. they have cash on hand. >> there's a liquidity story that is being overlooked with the panic about second derivatives. >> we are looking at both those nominal and real yields and recognize that we truly are in uncharted territory. >> i think it is really about the fed getting the economy to full employment. we got a very strong cpi print that head of nerve -- that could unnerve the market. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

on television come on radio, it is a simulcast. fully staffed today. thanks, romaine bostick, for sitting in. lisa abramowicz back today. her bond market has enough to keep her awake after the redeye. jonathan: your 10 year yield right now, 1.34%. actually slipping to morgan stanley in that opening tip. he said cpi could be really important tomorrow. i keep saying this. if i tell you what cpi will become a will you hear this -- will be, will you tell me the reaction? tom: we will have wonderful voices on this, including someone coming up on what hedge are doing. it is about gdp, the most important number this morning, bank of america confirming 9.5% this quarter. and then what -- jonathan: and

then what? do you care about the levels or the deceleration? for a lot of people it is the deep acceleration. tom: all i care is how england kicks their penalty shot. i still understand it was go to you because of your observation on the american economy when you were not in crete. lisa: when i was not in crete and not catching the bond market, i could not get back to the negative real yield going to the lowest we have ever sent. that means once you subtract the inflation, how did this make sense. it is just yields going that much slower and tom drawing the distinction between a liquidity story and the actual growth outlook is a very different -- very difficult one to parse.

what was different here is this interview mattered. lagarde delivered on a tone. what shifted after this important conversation? jonathan: guidance. lisa is right to point out the asset purchase program. the curtain guidance is that goes up until march 2022. they have to loosen things up and push it out even more. they have to really connect with this market and city pandemic emergence parts the program is going to delay beyond the emergency. . as for the move, just in terms of what they did with the framework, the strategy, the big review, we have gone from below 2% to 2%. i think it speaks to the politics that still exist within the governing council. the bundesbank might have had its wings clipped, but they are still making a lot of noise. maria: let's monitor the data -- tom: let's monitor the data

check right now. futures, negative eight. that's better than they were an hour or two ago. jonathan: once again setting the tone for this market is the bond market. yields are in a basis point to 1.3427%. how many times did you and i have to question what matters for the banks beyond earnings for that number? tom: i will go with both. it is that simple. they've got to look at both ends of it. we will get more on that tomorrow. right now we start strong this hour with a gentleman looking not only at making the relative move in the market, but the absolute move as well. skybridge capital has been steeped in moving money to hedge funds, trying to get big return. this year, that is sport. troy gayeski joins us now. what is it for hedge funds right now, given the confusion that we see out there? is it an up year write down year? troy: so far it has been a

reasonable year. it is just like water markets. the first shall be last and the last shall be first. tom: biblical. troy: managers that outperformed last year because they were long growth have underperformed because you had about a four month underperformance period. economic strength has been very pronounced. going forward, the industry is still overweight tech liquor growth, but a lot of these up -- overweight secular growth, but a lot of these value plays have >>. jonathan: how fragile -- have legs. jonathan: how fragile do you think this trade is? it upsets confidence people have about where they are on the equity market. troy: the sector rotation this year has been more critical than in the past. for five months you had significant underperformance of growth, so no surprise,

cyclical managers, of which there are very left because of underperformance, they have very strong starts. last month, however, you start to see secular growth reinserted self. so you have a fractal damage between those -- a fractal dynamic between those. are they too over their skis in one factor or another? jonathan: why do i need active management when the s&p just seems to be doing all the hard work for me? troy: the fed keeps pumping and liquidity. we have 16% plus annualized growth rates. you guys have been discussing were bond yields are. at the end of the day, active management, why do you have it? you have stocks and bonds. bonds look like return for a risk. when yields get up to 1.6%, 1.7%, he has some upside for extremely low real return rates now. so if hedge funds or active managers can outperform fixed income and high-yield and

provide some sort of correlation benefit to equities, that is still the value proposition. it should be easier to outperform bonds going forward, and equities past 2022 earnings, how much more expansion is left there? lisa: one of the more active decisions has been to go into bitcoin. we have seen the bitcoins price basically have, since the peak we saw in april. what did you do during this period? troy: basically, we trimmed the position in order to keep it from growing further. we had more outflows than inflows. since then we have rotated a small amount of the capital into ethereum. bitcoin will be the market leader in terms of store value and ethereum, at least so far, is the market leader in terms of transaction use, so we want a little bit of diversification there. when we look right now at the data, would it is basically telling you is a lot of the

strong holders are reasserting themselves and accumulating from those that got into the market late last year. at least setting its up for some type of supply shock, very similar to last october, november, but continues to be very non-correlated. we think the risk-reward is skewed to the upside. tom: when it comes to justifying active management, how do you discuss your investment in bit point when it is volatile, and argued that this is a reason to go into the fund even though it is not a proven asset class that does have all of the ups and downs and can be rather unprintable? troy: part of active management is trying to identify nascent asset classes that have asymmetric risk return. again, we are in the non-correlation business. we are trying to generate terms that are different, so that is what drew us to bit point initially. if you look at the broader environment of incredible money supply growth, still record low

10-year gilts, the adoption cycle that continues, we think that small part of our portfolio can provide non-correlation and asymmetric upside. of course, over time, we have to manage that relative to other positions. tom: tell me about earnings season in the long-short structure right now. tech has resurged. our hedge funds exposed to apple and amazon? troy: facebook and google are more heavily owned. jonathan: more visible lisa: troy: more visible, yet. -- more visible. troy: more visible, yeah. if you look at 20%, 30%, 40% cash flow growth as well as earnings growth over time, you get a much better multiple. there hasn't been really heavy ownership of apple, if you look

at one of the rightist equity design is we have ever seen, two of his names are a lot. it is where that you can have a make cap tech stock being viewed as value, which is sort of a reverse engineer of the entitle market. tom: were you enamored by the talk earlier of the line to space and branson and bezos? troy: it was like a breath of fresh air. [laughter] jonathan: dazzled wasn't the word. troy: my first engineering class i ever took at m.i.t. was fluid mechanics, and it blew my mind. you went from mass calculus to real engineering, and it was like, oh my goodness, this is really hard. tom: it was not. i don't remember --. troy: it was not. i don't member -- don't read

them are exactly what it was. i won't tell you what i got on my first test score. [laughter] it wasn't an a, but i did finish with an a in the class. jonathan: good to have you back in the studio. what are we doing, elbow bumps? troy: yeah, it is really great to be back here. thanks for having me on, as always. jonathan: draghieski -- troy gayeski, skybridge capital. equities, 43 53 on the s&p, down seven points. we are off by about 0.5%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.

the european union's has it will postpone its push for a digital tax instead, a broader agreement will be worked out between the world's countries. the european union had already worked out a package against tech giants like facebook and google. in cuba, state run has acknowledged the outbreak of antigovernment demonstrations. cuba has faced growing conger after its economy was hit by a slump in tourist revenue during the pandemic. shares of virgin galactic are higher after richard branson shot into space. branson and five employees rocketed into space from a carrier aircraft high above new mexico. they reached announced to the more than 53 miles above the

earth. a wildfire pushing california toward the brink of blackout. the blaze is waiting -- is raging uncontrollably across southern oregon. nevada paces a power emergency. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york city for

our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a quick check of the price action for you. in the equity market, down to 4353 on the s&p 500. we declined by 0.15%. in the bond market, down to 1.34%. last week as high as 1.4457%. a break of 1.25%. now going into cpi tomorrow. tom: you wonder whether that stands on friday after an eventful week as well. i would also note the dollar. churning this morning. what do we make of the euro-dollar, $1.1852? jonathan: i was surprised that the communication lagarde delivered yesterday was the communication we delivered -- munication she delivered.

good news, no big expectations looking at the euro. the bond market has been putting much in line with what is happening with the treasury market, so we will see. tom: maybe lagarde will go into space with baby hosts -- with bezos. gina martin adams with us now, an important conversation to start off earnings season. reason one, she has the courage to be in the market the entire way. she has participated in this bull market, and she's the queen of granularity. what is the granularity of bloomberg intelligence tell you right now about the accounting statements? gina: i think it is going to be an interesting earnings season for a number of reasons. the first is there's no way that we don't have a record level. we will probably get close to 80%, and guidance won't give this any clear direction as it historically has. the critical part is it is also beaker earnings. you will get a lot of opportunities to add corrections

over the second half of this year if margins are any guide. margins eked in the first quarter this year, so we will see a lot of margin volatility emerge. it is also about easy comps. tom: they adapt. how do corporate officers adapt to peak, and how to they adapt to margins coming in? they cut costs, right? gina: this is the big key. can they cut costs more -- can they cut costs more after this? where does the pace of revenue growth settle? is a huge question. if you go back to the last recession, you had such a downdraft in revenue with an eight digit long growth. that is not likely to be the case where we get revenue growth closer to 6% over the next couple of years. how did companies -- how do

companies continue to press forward and keep margin growth expanding in that slower revenue growth environment coming out of recession? it is a really big question. the financials always w -- always wade through earnings season. we need to see some power come out of the financials to really get us moving forward on the index. lisa: does this mean that more consumer lending, more lending in general to the corporate sector, even at a time when everyone is so flush with cash? gina: it is amazing because we are not seeing that topline revenue growth, even though you have seen me and investment banks -- you have seen investment banks with pretty strong m&a activity. the core lending environment has been really slow, even though you've got decent housing market activity.

lending to the consumer outside of housing has been incredibly slow. i think the core lending environment is absolutely key, and how much of this is happening outside the financial sector? how much of it is happening in private markets as opposed to the big public entities embedded in the indices? lisa: given the reopening and some of the comps that are going to be highly distorted from this, which sectors are most important watch entered them -- important watch in terms of earnings to see the rotation we have just seen. tom: i think it is critically important -- gina: i think it is critically important to set the stage for where we are going in this cycle. i also think you want to watch the rest of the value oriented, cyclically oriented spaces. it is really key to assessing with the environment is starting to look like. even the energy space, which has

been sort of left out of the mix of ending for a while, given peak oil prices that occurred more than a decade ago. where does energy go from here? how does the new economy drive energy? how does the new energy platform drive that space? it is another big key for will we go secularly. so i think you still watch these cyclicals and the expectation of stability and large-cap growth. it is not a big shock. we know we are paying for that growth. the? is where else could things migrate over the course of this cycle as compared -- as you compare it? tom: robert schiffman publishing moments ago. you read nothing bonds, right? "the time is right for facebook to issue $50 billion of bonds." do we underestimate the fixed income corporation on tech

balance sheets? gina: i think it is a great point. where we had the concentration of cash is largely in large-cap tech and health care. those have been the areas, where areas of support and stability over the course of 2020. the deployment of that cash over time is critically important for where these grow. but do they fade into a slower growth environment, the plan capital back to shareholders, potentially increasing dividends over time? these are the trends we were starting to see precrisis. those are the bulk of the cash holders on the index, and cash is still extremely high. we still have perilously low buybacks, capital spending. there's just not a lot of activity. tom: wacc is a screen i use all the time on the bloomberg terminal. facebook, 1.4%.

jonathan: so much money around, and those companies -- speaking of money around, and unopened mario 64 game just auction for $1.5 million. lisa is shaking her head as i say this. and opened "super mario 64" game. i had that game, believe it or not. $1.5 million. lisa: you start to wonder where this money goes. we talked about none fungible tokens, that you can sell something online and people are expecting millions of dollars. you wonder, is there a bubble in super mario games from earlier? jonathan: unbelievable. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. wishing i had never opened that christmas present years ago.

looking ahead to inflation data tomorrow. chair powell testimony later in the week, and jay powell kicking off earnings season states what -- earnings season stateside. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ berg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. don -- down five on the s&p. yields in a couple of basis points to 1.3427 after a brief break of 1.25 early thursday morning. j.p. morgan asset management and others seeing a rally in the bond market that has gone too far and does not reflect the strength of the economic outlook. growth will stay strong and we do not think the market has priced enough rate hikes. a lot of people share that line coming from j.p. morgan. tom: the research out over the weekend with and i towards earnings -- with an eye

towards earnings. right now on the lagarde testimony over the weekend in venice, vincent reinhart joins us. he is mellowed investment management cheap economist. far more, he is encyclopedic on the research path we have taken over the many decades reading to research effort at the fit the fit a number of years ago. professor reinhardt, thank you so much for joining us. when you look at the lagarde-powell nexus, how are they attached right now? vincent: they share a love of ambiguity and of talking a lot. they will take every platform they can. right now they are both in the position of wanting to reassure markets they know what they are doing, they have a new framework they're putting that framework in place. for president lagarde, it is

only a week old and that is why you see her and all of the ecb leadership alpine force over the weekend through this morning. tom: the framework they're putting in place will be tested by data. does the framework collapse when the data moves against the central banks? vincent: it will be a test of whether they are willing to follow through with what they have said they have. the similarities between the fed and the ecb are two fold. they interpret their 2% inflation day as symmetric, that is news for the ecb. the second is outcome based, now outlook base -- not outlook based. the key difference, the ecb has not gone fed like in saying the goal is an average inflation.

the one thing where there most similar is -- central bankers like to pitch a big tent because that is how they can get their governing committees together. the fomc of the governing council. they use ambiguous words. they will tolerate and overshoot, but how long it overshoot? we don't know. lisa: within the language is unambiguous concern about housing prices. the idea we have seen a huge boom in both sides of the atlantic. we have seen this from the federal reserve as well as christine lagarde. what measures do expect from central bankers to tame housing prices, or will they say this is a necessary consequence to a policy that helps the economy? vincent: here is the irony. the ecb wants to add equivalent rent to their price index because it makes it go higher. they are welcoming that extra

tip to inflation to get closer to their goal. what can they do? there is monetary policy and regulatory policy in the same building. expect to see them to tighten where they can in terms of supervisory restraint. it is a problem they would prefer to address from that side of the building. right now, there overwhelming concern is a macro one. the level of employment. therefore they will not adjust the setting rates nor the balance sheet to worry about housing. the fed has an opportunity when it does start to taper. it could slow purchases of mortgage backed securities by a quicker pace than treasury securities. that would be a way to send a signal. lisa: that is something fed

officials have discussed and people are wondering if that will be where they start. they know they are far away from their employment targets. tom asked the question, is the federal reserve trying to set social policy with its targets given the fact it has such a multifaceted definition of full employment? vincent: reality is we are putting new labels on old bottles. the ecb is going direct its policy towards climate change. tell me how you do that? in this environment, chair powell has been at the forefront of explaining what the central bank has always done in a way to reach more people. the way you reach more people is you talk about their economic circumstance, you do not focus on aggregates.

economists can get apart from the real world by focusing on concepts and numbers rather than people. chair powell has done a good job of re-on for it -- a good job of re-warranted teen -- a good job of reorienting the focus. tom: the venn diagram of taylor and paula krugman has a lot of overlap, but the overlap is not an overt social policy. how do we have a social bank given the heritage from chesney martin in 1951? vincent: i think you are right. it is a fundamental problem in the design of organizations. the fit is incredibly open -- the fed is opaque. if you give it a lot of goals,

it does not have the tools to hit those goals. how do you govern the trade-offs on elected officials are making? do you want the interest rate to be somewhat different because jay powell feels it is better for climate change this month? rather, when you give a more narrow focus, you can monitor them better on how well they are doing their jobs. tom: what does chair powell not want to say? vincent: he does not want to make news. he does not want to make your next show interesting. if he makes news that he has said something different, he has said something surprising. he wants to say everything is on course. they are worried about the pandemic. they are pleased with unfolding economic data. there is a long way to go.

he also has to reassure you he has tools in the toolkit and will do whatever it takes. lisa: one thing he keeps harping on, number of other fed officials have talked about the participation rate and how low it has remained despite the economic recovery we have. how do you expect the fed to explain that, the frictions that seem to be taking a longer than expected time to resolve? vincent: they sent a semiannual monetary report and it did a good job of talking about those problems and labor markets. chair powell talked about it the press conference. we did the easy stuff last year where people who had positions went back to work when market activity resumed. now we are in the much harder process of labor market clearing where people have to find new

positions, new jobs. unemployed people now are jobless. some of the unemployed people last year had jobs, businesses were just temporarily closed. now people frustrated by the match leave the labor force. people who retire do not come back. people go to black market activities. people get frustrated. that is why it takes a while for this part of the labor market clearing. that is why the federal reserve will keep policy accommodative for a long time, at least until 2023. jonathan: good to catch up and get that perspective. vincent reinhart, mel investment sheep investment strategy -- mellon investment sheep -- mellon investment chief economic

strategist. you get the bounce back and then it stalls. it will take time. tom: the information comes along. i would look at not the focus on the next fed meeting, it is a continuing forum. they are slaves to the data. that is all it is. there is way too much punditry. jonathan: end of the calendar. the focus is on q4. lisa: i was struck by an april survey of u.s. workers saying those that lost jobs, 30% of them did not want to return. that is up 20% last july. these frictions are complicated and will take time. jonathan: this is the biggest variable for anyone's outlook in the labor market? where do you think the participation rate will be? lisa: and how do we understand what is behind that friction? is it people deciding to go to a new career?

is it people who would rather get unemployment? is it people worried about the health consequences? is it ambiguity around people will be working from home or back to the office? all of these are factors. jonathan: i am with you. i will run will i am pleased we got through two or three hours without talking about football. tom: why didn't he knocking the ball? jonathan: i knew you had a question. don't know. tom: 25. what he has been through. jonathan: don't know. what a player. coming up on the open, greg peters. tom: you'd -- jonathan: you do a wonderful job of pretending you know what you're talking about every week. from new york, the band is back together. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in haiti, a new twist in the

investigation into who killed the president. police say they have arrested a haitian man accused of flying into haiti by private jet and working with suspects in the assassination. police say he was in contact with the security firm that recruited the suspect. the u.s. infectious disease chief anthony fauci says ideological rigidity is preventing people from getting shot. dr. fauci made the rounds to reinforce the administration's position that the vaccines are safe. blue card has -- valuing the indian online retailer at $37 million. the company's main owner, walmart -- walmart bought a majority of flip part three years ago and has been working towards an ipo. it is a hopeful sign for movie theaters. disney's black widow scored the

highest grossing debut for a film since the onset of the pandemic. the newest marble picture took in $80 million in u.s. and canadian theater ticket sales. disney says black widow also generated more than $60 million from fans paying $30 to watch it at home. it could be the biggest jet holder for air france klm. the company has started talking to airbus and boeing for 160 planes. the contest would pit bones 737 max against airbus a320. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> just being able to unbuckle and look out of the massive

windows and taken the earth -- and take in the earth from space is something i've dreamt of since i was a kid. it was utterly awesome. tom: sir richard into space. interesting this weekend covering sir richard and sir f eff as well is our ed ludlow. he has been in sun valley and leaving today down i 10 towards where jeff bezos will launch july 20 as well. it is 106 miles -- it is 166 miles from where you are to where jeff bezos will launch into space. there is lots of discussion about who is in space. how do you treat the idea of where alan shepard was, where branson was, and the many miles

more mr. bezos will be on july 20? ed: the first thing richard branson did when he got off his spacecraft yesterday was walk onto a stage and be given his official nasa stripes. they pinned it on him. he had a beaming smile. he was given the stripes because nasa recognizes 50 miles above the earth as officially space. blue origin and virgin galactic have been in this tit-for-tat about the definition of space. blue origin says it is the international recognized level of space at 62 miles above the earth. that is a territorial issue. it has ciaccio political definition. richard branson -- that is a geopolitical definition. richard branson does not care. he says i went into space. if there is a benchmark, nasa is a good one. tom: which is more risky, a

plane and a detachment from a plane, or the rocketry of mr. bezos? ed: yesterday was certainly tense, but the delivery mechanism had a number eight of failsafes -- had a number of failsafes. it can be cut off at any time. it can glide back to earth. at 50 miles you are still within the earth's gravitational pull. blasting yourself into space and a rocket is more risky. anyone in the aerospace industry will tell you that. there are fewer opportunities to abort. the safety mechanisms are different. richard branson had a lot of training for that mission and i'm told by sources jeff bezos is also going through very specific training. lisa: it is an incredible feat and a wonderful experience to be able to fulfill a dream of being weightless. there is also a business case for this. what is that business case in

terms of space tourism for the likes of richard branson? ed: it is a very narrow product. $250,000 a seat for four minutes of weightlessness. i spoke to the virgin galactic ceo. he does say there is a market. there are enough people willing to part with that amount of money. he said supply constraints are so much so they are not reopening sales. remember they sold 600 seats at $250,000. they also took a big number of reservations at $1000 a deposit. they cannot do that many launches. we are talking about dozens of launches a year at most, not hundreds. people will have to wait. he says the margins are like software company territory. i grilled him on this. i said hold on, you're talking about a 40% to a 50% margin? his point is that only comes with scale.

for scale they need a factory to build the spaceships, they need government support or subsidy from the state. they also need to get on with it . richard branson yesterday was an amazing moment. you could hear how exhausted he was, but it took them more than a decade to get to this point and it is been slow progress. lisa: you said something i want to pick up on government subsidies. are they getting government subsidies and will they? what is the purpose behind that at that endeavor that is highly privatized fundamentally? ed: virgin galactic got a sweet deal for spaceport america. new mexico paid $200 million for the facility. they gave them the permits to do it and a prime piece of real estate, 6000 miles of restricted airspace. perfect for rocket. virgin galactic pays $500 million a year in rent. compared to their r&d cost and

all the money that has gone into that company, that is chump change. i spoke to the state governor at the event and to see are already -- and she is already eyeing the next phase of the ration ship which is the factory to build a spaceship. tom: does this get us to mars? all of this billionaire spaced up, does it get it to mars or does nasa look at this as a distraction? ed: nasa does not look at it as a distraction. nasa officials see it as complementary. they want people to be excited about space. let's be under no illusions. virgin galactic is a very narrow definition of going into space. what spacex is trying to do is much grander. they are the provider of choice for servicing iss. there the provider of choice for most satellite companies. they are the most advanced to going to mars.

blue origin has similar ambition in terms of interplanetary exploration. they are distracted because just like virgin galactic, their founder plans to blast himself into space first. tom: i know you're going to texas in a 1966 ford thunderbird. it is the ed ludlow way. i want you to know as you're moving down to the bezos cape canaveral you have to be singing jimmy buffett's hello texas. ed: you cannot see it but i have a brand i will not name pickup truck over my left shoulder. lisa: [laughter] tom: why did we know that? it is dramatic. from sun valley to las cruces, down i 10, somewhere past el paso to texas for mr. bezos july 20. lisa: i am struck by this idea of the public private aspect of space exploration.

the id the public sector does need to get behind this in some capacity. there is an intricate connection between the two being driven by the private sector. you asked the right question. will these private companies get us to mars. are they going to be at the forefront of the next scientific development. the cold war product that led to space travel, whether this can be generated by the private sector today. tom: to meet what it is is about the physical risk. these people are testing risk, complete underestimation about the risk involved in ma'am spaceflight as we learn the hard way across mercury, gemini, and apollo. did you mention there is a 10 year option coming up? lisa: why don't you talk about it. tom: the preview is what, does anyone care? lisa: i care stop people are looking to see if we have seen

the peak demand for treasuries given the fact they are lower yet again. tom: stay with us through the day and the week. "balance of power." jacob kierkegaard will be there. i will be there as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city, good morning, good morning. equity futures unchanged into the opening bell. the countdown to the open starts

right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. cutting set for a busy week ahead. >> a lot of deportment -- a lot of important events. >> a lot of growth data. >> we could see a slow down. >> the retail sales support, industrial production. >> we hear from chair powell. >> people questioning the timing of the fed and the tapering. >> how many people would have predicted the 10 year would dip below 1.30 in early july? >> the move down has been very much a global phenomenon. >>