story. >> you have to tell me it's going to get back, you have to expect a real yield of zero. >> a strong cpi price that could unnerve the market. >> the fed is opaque. if you give it a lot of goals it does not have many tools to hit all those goals. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> the week begins from new york. for our audience ruled why this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. futures and shares all-time high at the s&p -- for the s&p. what a morning we have lined up for this audience. tom: i would say as the quarter begins and some would say the rest of the year begins. jp morgan we will go into some

size comparisons, but these earnings with jp morgan in this hour it's not normal, it's a huge deal. >> coming in about 45 minutes. then we will hear from goldman, cpi in america at 8:30. >> my focus is on the vix, showing me a bull market. right now at 15 point 99 with real constructive movement in the vix and the right guest on volatility. jon: dean kern just minutes away. we have to talk about the bank of amana -- bank of america fund survey. lisa: there is a question about the yield curve and people decreasing expectations for steepening yield curves that a time where we see a flattening with expectation of slower growth long-term. what does this mean for banks now that people have rotated into them? jon: show me some loan growth.

that's all we want from the guidance. >> or the potential for it. people saying there won't be as much loan growth as government support, but give us a sense that people are using up their savings and will be prepared to take out loans. jon: unchanged on the s&p 500, 43 77, coming into tuesday at record highs. unchanged on your benchmarks. yields unchanged. yields going absolutely nowhere with the euro-dollar just slightly negative by a 10th of 1%. euro-dollar 11842. >> talking about loan growth that is what most people will be focused on as we kick off queue too earnings. jp morgan at 7:00 a.m. -- 7:00 a.m.. people will be looking at net interest margins and trading revenues which are expected to decline or be disappointing. ipo's and global mergers and

acquisitions a huge boon for these banks. it's all lined in consumer loans, credit cards. how much does this tell us about the economy and economic growth going forward? at 8:30 we get the u.s. cpi which will be important to see given the fact that the specific components are going to tell a story about transitory or not. will we see used auto prices continue to climb at the same pace? a lot of them have been driven by rental cars, rental car companies have been huge bidders on these fleets very bloomberg live hosts a sustainable business summit, an important event hosting the ceos of industry and the white house climate advisor. i'm looking for what the response will be with the strong weather patterns we've seen out of the west. we haven't talked that much about it. the heatwave, places have not

seen this before, what does this do to crops. correct something to put on your radar later. straight out the gate with the earnings from pepsico. one 72 against an estimate of 153. analysts were looking for the estimate on organic revenue growth of 7.59%. it comes in at 12.8% in positive territory. >> the s&p goes positive green. this is an incredibly important number mirroring what we have seen over the last two weeks. arrows in the right direction organic or internal revenue growth and legitimate statistics for the frito-lay company it's an important number and a constructive number. >> the stock is up 1%, they boost their outlook area we will catch up later ron and the 9:00

hour. tom: very good. we have to talk about -- jon: we have to talk about cost pressure and how this company man's -- manages to handle that. >> they've been through a natural disaster. i played this lightly through the last gloom and doom of the last 90 days. these people are experienced at saying what is the plan to maintain margins? adam says maybe not. will it be the horror show that people like lisa talk about? the answer is no. jon: with the forward look this market comes down to margins. lisa: there have been a number of reports showing that companies have done well at managing margins which means racing in put prices for consumers. you have seen prices go up but perhaps the amount of stuff you get for your money goes down. they are not doing a terrible job. jon: pepsico up by 1.67%.

final word? tom: potato chips up 7%. potato chips up 7%. jon: anything you want to share? tom: potato chips up 7%. jon: thanks, tom. dean, good to catch up. we have a 51 lined up, what takes your fancy? >> you might think you started it off just right which is the market is basically unchanged and the s&p's at an all-time high. we got extremely low volatility. volatility is one of the most transparent statistics out there. you can hit it up on your bloomberg and continuously look at it all day long. there is a lot of information even as we stare at it all day long. without realized volatility going up equity market participants are relatively safe. you don't see losses in equity markets without the market starting to move considerably

more than it is now. there is that old dialogue in markets about the pain tree, rates up and rates down. there is only one pain trade and in the options market it has been realized volatility stalling out the way it has. it puts a lot of downward pressure on the folks that are buying options and holding them. that is why the vix is at a 15 handle. the second thing i say is important is valuations. they say never short of market on valuation, i think that is right. if you peel the onion and start to look back at that layer's within the s&p 500 you will see how tech heavy it is. by some measures it's more tech heavy than it was at the height of the dot-com bubble and it's expensive. the rise has been unbelievable if you held on through the lowest in march of 2020.

investors are finding it difficult to let that go even if there are warning signs around inflation and valuation and concentration at the top of the index. very difficult not to be involved. >> i'm gonna rip up the script because this is important for global wall street watching before earnings. is it so top-heavy and distorted that the mathematics of the four cross moments is no good anymore that this queue doesn't work? variance don't work, you throw the math out the window because of amazon apple and the rest? >> there is something to that. what is interesting is if you go back to the original tech bubble and i would say respectfully there are so many potential signs that we are in a massive price bubble. you see too many things right now. the original tech bubble that was a real doozy and what was different about them than the now is intel and microsoft systems were highly correlated to each other back then.

when you look at apple, amazon, google, facebook, the top of the index with microsoft you don't see the stoxx as that correlated. i think that is what limits the risk profile someone has. what these stocks are correlated to is the directionality of interest rates. i think that is something we are supposed to try to understand that there is this diversifying -- it's really not a diversifier at this point. something that might amplify the risk in your portfolio especially as it concerns technology. tom: lisa: lisa: -- lisa: are you saying the vix could be a counterweight or non-correlated asset to the 60/40 portfolio you preach it has correlated? dean: the vix and tlt are correlated. one of those is not an edge.

these two things are moving the same way. they're supposed to move in opposite ways. i still think volatility is one of the only anti-fragile assets out there. when things get really bad in markets there is no doubt that volatility is going to spike. there is in exactly the same confidence we can have anymore that interest rates are going to rally as they have or the bond market will rally in a risk on or risk off fashion. we have taken a bit of a breather as folks have started to buy into maybe peak growth or disinflationary, but we have seen the bond market be the cause of the risk off. we saw that paper tantrum type activity a couple months ago and you have to wonder what that next 30 to 40 basis point move higher in the vix means for the

equity market outlook. i'm not convinced that risk on risk off is in play anymore. i think it might be the opposite. jon: good to catch up. looking at the 10 year right now, it was 36. >> there hasn't been much volatility there. you wonder if there is such a problems in terms of volatility in the broader market. >> this market is getting harder to read. tom: i'm going to go there. look at the italian bond, price up and deal down, is this because italy beat england? from new york city, good morning. ritika gupta: white house

officials considering a digital trade agreement as a way to counter asia and china. it could include canada, new zealand, japan, and singapore among others. it will have rules on use of data and train facilitation. in china, exports accelerated to 32% in dollar terms from a year earlier and bonds rising almost 37%. there are signs the momentum could begin to moderate. prime minister boris johnson's decision to ease coronavirus restrictions in england has led to growing year end calls for action. doctors warned the toll of the pandemic will overburden the national health service and economists expect consumer confidence to fall in the coming weeks because of the perceived threat to public safety. new headwinds for the vaccine

once expected to be a linchpin in the u.s. immunization expert -- half or. the johnson & johnson fact sheet was revised to warn of a rare immune system disorder. france has find google $593 million. google did not negotiate in good faith to display portions of articles on its new service, france's largest second -- france's second largest antitrust fine ever. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> the legislation that the president and i are supporting

will go further to improve the lives of working people been any legislation since the 1930's. we are talking about creating millions of jobs and ending or going a long way to reduce childhood poverty in this country. >> that was senator bernie sanders of vermont, from new york city good morning alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. counting down to cpi in america and earnings season. did 10 minutes you will hear from j.p. morgan. 377 on the s&p. tom: nailed it. jon: if i did that with you we would be here all day wouldn't we? tom: we would. jon: yields unchanged. the euro-dollar one decimal point. >> why hasn't it move? >> down 2/10 of 1%. >> it's been a real loose show.

>> may it will move more. tom: annmarie hordern with us in washington, she and i getting ready for balance of power at noon. still the morning our in california. the news flow is there and there is a story in the zeitgeist in the washington post of everybody buying up on the new cuba, castro dead five or six years, his brother at 90 is assassinated. fidel is the new leader and faces a nonconventional war. >> they are cutting off people's access to social media which is one of the reasons why people will a -- were able to gather. you are seeing high costs of food and medicine. what happened in washington is that the president has come out and called it on and talk -- an authoritarian regime. does he take the approach to the

obama administration in 2015 to uplift the embargo and allow travel, or take a hard line on cuba and continue sanctions? decisions are made in california, in florida usually controversial. how is the biden administration colored by the domestic politics of 2022 and the race of 2024? >> this is some great analysis as the washington post was going through what is happening with cuba with the biden administration might not be able to go back to what they promised during the president obama years , they have to take a tough line because of what happened in florida and they are losing many votes in florida. when you saw the president come out with that statement about the cuban authoritarian regime,

marco rubio from florida saying he forgot it was a socialist and communist regime, potentially this could be a domestic plate to make sure that shore up the votes in florida. >> talking about national policy the financial times reporting early today about joe biden potentially warning u.s. companies about doing business in hong kong, what do you make of this? >> this is a another blow between beijing and washington and you have the biden administration and what is going on with hong kong they want to tighten the screws and they are worried about chinese access of data to american companies in hong kong. the question will be what happens to the financial hub of hong kong and these companies start shifting to singapore or tokyo because of the chinese communist party's grip on hong kong. we have a bloomberg story about potential digital trade with

other countries and this would be another potential bifurcation between markets and technology between beijing and washington. >> that's where i wanted to go. it felt like the trans-pacific partnership that we had under president trump, digital trade agreement in the indo pacific area. how serious is this? could it gain enough traction among allies to get off the ground? >> a lot of individuals who follow the trade world think it's an opening and it could be a placeholder given the fact that the united states left the tpp. what will be interesting is who signs up and the names that are floated from peter martins and eric martins is australia and chile and it would be a way for the united states to shore up some of these countries when you are seeing a stronger china and

if not so with commercial goods but digitally. >> has yellen been successful in europe? i noticed her on a boat with 12 people trying -- there is no boat in brussels. >> i think it's a gondola. >> we tip extra for help getting in out of the gondola. is she having a successful trip with impact? or is she going through the motions? >> part of it is successful in the sense that what we saw yesterday at this time when you saw the european stitching to the side of the digital tax levy whether or not she is going to be successful or -- ireland and estonia on board in terms of the global minimum tax. she came out of the g20 triumphant. jon: annmarie hordern in washington dc. looking forward to you to later

on balance of power. >> what is it like? can we just travel to midday? >> aiko all over the world and make sure i'm highly caffeinated. jon: and he just throws out a word like cuba. a little like balance of power on tv and radio at midday and 12:00 eastern time. back to the china story. multinationals who operate in hong kong have been petrified of saying anything about this law. they are petrified about saying or doing anything that loses them access to the mainland. if any of these decisions are made it won't that it will be made by the government. >> it is front and center and i have to admit that hong kong is fomenting. to get informed on the scope and scale of this company, this has to do with hong kong as well. the j.p. morgan presence in hong kong and they do that wrapped around 259,000 employees.

we will talk about these financial metrics. the number one thing that drives me nuts about the media coverage of these things is we don't describe how large they are. >> close to 250,000 employees. >> just to emphasize what you were talking about with the fact that the u.s. government is putting pressure and saying companies could have legal liability if they don't readjust supply chains to not do business in certain areas. in china there are human rights violations being committed. to me it gives the pressure more to these companies in how they operate. it's a huge deal considering companies will not act on their own. >> sitting down with these leaders every year we got to the davos world economic forum and i struggle to sleep, i wish i could sleep more. was never a fan of that venue. when you sit down next them and say china, you watch them

bristle. they do not want to go there. >> what's amazing is i sit down and i say barry and they know more about that than talking about strategy in china. >> from new york city jp morgan numbers just around the corner up there. this is bloomberg. oomberg.

in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity

to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. (announcer) if you've struggled to lose weight, you might think you were born with a slow metabolism, but what you may have is insulin resistance. fat becomes trapped inside your body and it becomes very difficult to lose weight. now there's golo. golo works to reverse the effects of insulin resistance, increase metabolic efficiency, and targets stubborn belly fat. join over two million people who have found a smarter way to lose weight and get healthier. go to golo.com and change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com.

jonathan: live from new york city this tuesday morning, good morning. here's the price action this tuesday. 4376 on the s&p. unchanged on the day. year-end forecast of from 4500 to 44. that's the equity market right now. in 15 minutes we will be talking about the big banks in america and we kick things off with j.p. morgan. premarket, nothing to pay attention to right now. down about .2%. over the last two days we have had a lift in stock prices. goldman going into earnings in the next hour. around 6% over the last two days. i hope can these banks get some

stabilization in the bond market friday, monday. your yield right now -- still south of 2%. i think most people would agree, we need to see a number of things from the banks themselves. this steeper curve that was there through q1 and then faded away. we need to see that come back a little bit. tom: faded is the right phrase. the 10 year negative yield getting back to the low end of that range. that just won't move. that's all there is to it. jonathan: that's the bottom line, isn't it. here's my question really. for banks to perform, do you need yields to start going lower or higher?

tom: that's a dynamic of decades of work. let's start with that to answer the jon ferro question about yield dynamics. must yields go steeper for james dimon to have a good second half? >> the word must is a little strong. i would say that having the yields not go down any further is critical. a steepening yield curve would certainly be favorable, but more important is what's going to happen to loan growth. a steepening curve would be beneficial, but it's not a must for these stocks to do better in the second half of the year. tom: about 2:00 a.m. bloomberg announces that aramco will pick j.p. morgan and goldman sachs for international developing of pipelines. how's the international strategy of james dimon doing?

>> quite well. citigroup is our dominant global bank. almost 60% of their revenues come from overseas. j.p. morgan chase about 25% of their revenues come from overseas. so i would suggest they've done a very good job of expanding under his leadership and that's going to be a continued area of growth because they are unable to buy and depository because of their size. they have over 10% deposit market share. so he needs to grow organically. as you know they are going into london with a consumer product by the end of this year. jonathan: we need to get a better understanding of how willing these consumers are in america to our credit card debt, go out and add loans. are we going to get that read

today from this release? >> i think we will and we will get some color about the near-term future as well. federal reserve announced in their consumer loan numbers that consumer debt outstanding believe it or not is at record levels. it's not coming from credit card receivable growth. but if you look at the trust data, this is the security data that comes out monthly. the most recent reading that was firm may -- we expect credit card receivable growth will materialize especially in the second half of the year when the unemployment benefits run out and you start to see student loan deferments expire and the rental abatements will expire shortly. that's going to lead to consumers going back to revolving on their cards. jonathan: q4 seems to be the big issue. we have to wait for the additional unemployment

insurance to fade. lisa: that's exactly what i was thinking. if we don't see the loan growth now, when will we see it. when can we look for some signs that it will pick up. there is a good possibility that people still don't need to borrow given the ongoing stimulus. >> it's a very good point. when you look at the total loan growth, obviously it's negative. when you break down the components we are seeing growth. every friday afternoon the fed comes out with weekly loan data. year-to-date the consumer loan numbers are higher than they were a year ago and this is not necessarily due to credit card. here's the answer to that question which is when will the supply chain problems start to normalize and what i mean by that is the commercial loan demand is where we see the

biggest issues today. part of the reason is the liquidity that corporate's have. the other is the supply chain problems. when you go to your local dealership and you live -- drive-by and see their lots are half empty. think about the banks that lend that dealer for financing their inventory. they are half of what they normally should be in the lines of credit. as inventories come back, you will see commercial demand pickup. the question is it third or fourth quarters of this year or first and second quarters of next year. lisa: only 3% of business owners reported that all their borrowing needs were not satisfied. more than half of them said they don't want a loan. people are not looking for this type of financing. you raised the question that we

have to look at inventories to pick back up. is that enough to have faith in the banks even if we don't see consumer and corporate loan growth in tandem with what people like to see? >> one of the big push backs investors give us is they want to see the loan growth before they come in. 60 years of data in the united states, total bank loan growth is linked to nominal gdp growth. if the fed is right, that's 10%. next year we get 4% real growth. 3% inflation. those types of numbers will drag the loan growth higher in our opinion based on the regression analysis of looking at nominal gdp growth and loan growth. so it's coming. the other thing is the inventory to sales ratio in this country is an all-time record low. so many areas are short on inventory. i do think that will be one of

the catalysts. tom: i was doing some research at luke's lobster in portland maine. i noticed on the way and there's four branches on the corner of banks. are we do branching still? not goldman, they are not really a bank. are we do branching and will that accelerate? >> i'm looking down at jay's right now. yes, they are debranching. when you look at the number of branches in the united states, it has steadily declined since 2008. that doesn't mean branches aren't being opened up. ened up their first branch here in portland maine approximately two months ago. what you are seeing is a remixing of branches for the biggest banks. they are taking the branches out

of areas where there's an overconcentration and building new branches in areas they want to expand into organically. i would suggest over the next five to 10 years you'll probably see branches in this country be reduced by at least a third or not more. jonathan: you can get luke's lobster in new york city. just saying. if you want to save a bit of money. tom: it's not the same. jonathan: i understand. we had an executive order from the president in the last week from the white house about promoting competition in the american economy. a lot of people would say there's a lot of banks in america at the regional level and we need some consolidation. do you think we've got a serious obstacle to that happening now with this administration? >> i really don't. the rules that are in place, the

regulations are pretty strict right now. so i think what you will see is the justice department will continue to use the -- index that measures the concentration of deposit's when two banks get together. there has been significant consolidation in this industry. we had 18,000 banks in the early 80's. i don't expect it to be a major problem. will it slow the process down, probably. will it prevent banks from doing deals, we don't believe so. especially the smaller banks having a tougher time competing because they don't have the technological skills and capacity that some of the big ones have. jonathan: what a lineup we've got for you. jp morgan results coming any moment across the bloomberg terminal. sonali basak will be leading coverage on tv and radio. jp morgan numbers could becoming in about five minutes time.

tom: it's a mystery quarter. we have a mystery boom economy. we have supply at all sorts of disruption across many different sectors. pepsi certainly was adapting to a better outcome. jonathan: just struggling to get my head around the idea that we still haven't got a bank sector that is cleanly leveraged to this economy because the consumers don't want loans in the same way they might do. lisa: will momentum in the economy be enough to sustain revenue growth. jonathan: that's coming up a little bit later. jp morgan numbers just around the corner. your equity market, all-time highs.

>> senate democrats are trying to find consensus on bottoms $4 trillion spending plan. bernie sanders said, i think we are on the same page. the cuts are divided over the size and scope of the democrats proposal. it's intended to include a number of social spending and tax hike provisions. coronavirus cases are rising for the first time in seven months. the positive tests have roughly doubled in the last two weeks. the delta variants of the coronavirus has gained traction in new york. vaccination rates in some of the cities burros remain low. -- city's burroughs remain low. -- the central bank will call on

lenders to remain cautious. those are marks dampen the possibility that there will be a search in bank payout. more problems for the boeing 787 dreamliner. the company has encountered an additional manufacturing problem with the plane. it's not considered a threat to client safety. boeing halted delivery of the plane in may. tiny imperfections have cropped up on the line. -- we know chinese regulators have been cracking down on the wave of companies chasing overseas listing. it's not clear whether companies would be prevented from listing in the u.s. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city alongside tom keene lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up by one point on the s&p 500. outside of that yields in, a single basis point. euro-dollar slightly negative and crude firmer, higher. so it's jp in about 30 seconds time potentially and then about 40 minutes after that we should hear from goldman sachs. tom: i really give jp morgan credit. they put it in english.

i want to look at their operating income back to the crash of 2007. and we forget the size of the bank coming off the crash. we know they recovered, but they recovered with a vengeance moving up to 50 some gazillion dollars in operating income. jonathan: show me some loan growth. tom: sonali basak is with us. what's the first thing you're going to look for? >> i want to look at the loan to deposit ratio. it was about 50% just quarters ago. they are not lending in relation to their deposits. can you blame the fact that consumers don't want loans? you have to compare what the earnings are going to look like to the second quarter of 2019. tom: this is really important. pros are going back two years to

look. >> the fact that there could be a chance that their profitability comes in lower than that, that's the moment that would be concerning. you want to see those numbers higher. tom: r.o.e. is return on equity. >> reserve releases are one-off charges. if the fundamentals don't justify that 1.92 times price to book ratio, 24% run-up in the stock so far, this is a high bar. that's what all comes down to in the end. trading revenues. we are expecting north of $6 billion. want to look at what all the banks are doing. jonathan: here are the numbers right now. second quarter adjusted revenue. the estimate 30.06. we get a drip feed of this.

we want to see what trading revenue looks like for the big banks on wall street. it's a high bar year on year. away from that you want to understand the loan growth in america as well. is that starting to improve. just a slow drip feed of the numbers coming out from jp morgan. second quarter adjusted revenue. the estimate 30.06. the quarter include 3 billion-dollar credit reserve release firmwide. the quarter included a 3 billion-dollar credit reserve release firmwide. training revenue number coming for the second quarter. so just shy of that estimate. the estimate to .2 one billion so that's the upside surprise. that looks good.

on the fixed income side just basically in line. second quarter adjusted revenue 31.4 billion. so a couple of headlines to get through. the estimate recovery 326.7 million. that 3 billion number gets your attention. >> the revenue is going to be more interesting when we also see goldman sachs's earnings. they did come up above expected when it comes to earnings-per-share. some good news to hold onto. adjusted revenue also coming in above expected. equities higher than expected. recovery of credit losses, the pandemic is still going on across the world. it is certainly ending for jp morgan right now with reserve releases of those types. lisa: the initial read is

negative which really points to the incredibly high expectations considering they did beat on earnings-per-share, revenue, equities trading. what do you make of the share price reaction initially? >> almost not surprising. every banker i spoke to set wall street's expectations are too high. they are getting back to normal so quickly and that is not something investors had accounted for. that's great when it comes to credit releases but not when it comes to trading. that fixed income number even though it's below expectations, jp morgan is a fixed income powerhouse. on top of that there is a police -- belief that they are taking shares also from the european banks both in fixed income and equities. so any sign of sluggishness is not great for jp morgan or the rest of the banks.

tom: these are ratios i've never seen. they are about a boom economy and recovering from a pandemic. to devolve all these ratios down, what are they going to do with the cash flow? these calls, the research call and the general call as well, they're going to be a mystery and global wall street will hang on every word. jonathan: here's one thing that is not a mystery, what they will do with the cash. i imagine you might see a lot more of that over the next couple of years. 3.5 7 billion, just a final word. this is part of the bank i think for these big banks on wall street that there was a slightly higher bar after the first half that we saw in m&a. we are looking for some decent fees. >> jp morgan certainly expected or than a billion dollars in debt underwriting.

that is only expected to rise even more. these deals are less than $5 billion for the most part. so that should continue to be a deep pool. still a small percentage of jp morgan's business compared to what the net interest income brings in. tom: gerard cassidy with us with rbc capital markets. i've got a five-year dividend growth coming off the trauma of 14 percent. what's the model dividend growth that jp morgan can deliver? >> when you look at the excess capital that these banks have including j.p. morgan chase, dividend growth should be considered into the high single digits. i think that's reasonable anywhere. these are not double-digit dividend growers. there are period like the one we just came out of where some

banks increase dividends by double-digit rates. last year they were frozen because of the pandemic. there was a catch up in the recent announcement about dividend increases. tom: are you starting with a cash on cash return? >> i think you can see that the combination of the share repurchases in the dividends could easily exceed earnings not just for jp morgan but for the industry. that would suggest we could see those types of numbers that you mentioned from jp morgan as well as some of the other banks in the large bank universe. lisa: there is a high bar and they met it with almost everything. yet the shares are lower in premarket trading. what's your response to that especially given that the only

other disappointments i'm seeing right now is net interest income? >> it's going to be interesting because the total revenue number was bigger than expected and that's important. the other factor is the supplementary leverage ratio fell to 5.4% from the prior quarter 5.6. i cannot breach 5% internally. they have an internal model that says they can't go below that. so the deposit growth, very significant because of the monetary policy this country is pursuing with quantitative easing and it's forcing these home sale bank balance sheets to basically bust at the seams. maybe there's a little concerned that this leverage ratio is getting perilously close to their required minimum they have set. jonathan: we are down 1.27% after 5% move.

lisa: i understand that. when you see beads pretty much across the board, it is interesting that the knee-jerk response is, that's all you got for me? you have to wonder what people are looking at especially given the fact that there have been losses over the past few weeks. jonathan: jp morgan at the gate first. now we are going to have the compare and contrast. what do you make of what you have seen already this morning? >> their fixed number was slightly below expectations. we have to keep an eye on the other banks big trading. equity trading was better-than-expected so from goldman and morgan stanley, we should expect equity trading numbers to come in better. the investment banking number was also better-than-expected so i think the others are going to have similar numbers.

they are taking market share from their european competitors and that was showing up again in the numbers we have seen so far this morning. jonathan: jp morgan setting the bar for goldman sachs. nice to work with the numbers in real time with you. jp morgan behind us. goldman sachs just in front of us. tom: it's a different bank. i think there is too much made about their similarities. it will be interesting to see if they make any comments about what they've got in return to office. they certainly made a lot of headlines there. i just really want to emphasize these ratios of their balance sheet go so far beyond the swiss glory of decades ago. it's like we've imported swiss bank balance sheets into america. jonathan: we are negative across the board by a little more than 1%.

just a touch softer going into numbers. i come out about every minutes time. your equity market coming into tuesday at all-time highs. goldman is next and then it's cpi in america with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪

[ "me and you" by barry louis polisar ] ♪ me and you just singing on the train ♪ ♪ me and you listening to the rain ♪ ♪ me and you we are the same ♪ ♪ me and you have all the fame we need ♪ ♪ indeed, you and me are we ♪

♪ me and you singing in the park ♪ ♪ me and you, we're waiting for the dark ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com.

♪ >> businesses are seeing consumers go out and spend. they have cash on hand. >> there's a liquidity money story that is being overlooked with the panic about second derivatives. >> the u.s. economy is going to get to -- you would have to expect real yield of zero. >> a very strong cpi print could unnerve the market. >> the fed is incredibly opaque. if you give it a lot of gold, it doesn't -- a lot of goals, it doesn't have many tools to hit all those goals. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: goldman sachs results 25 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tuesday morning, equity futures unchanged at 4377. jake