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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  July 13, 2021 4:30pm-5:00pm EDT

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caroline: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. romaine: let's look at where financial markets ended the day. we started off with hot inflation, a treasury auction, and a retreat in u.s. equities. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: consumer prices surged in june by the most since 2008, topping all forecasts. coming just ahead of the all
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import fed chair powell testimony in the next two days. the next move, will it be more hawkish? bottlenecks in the supply chain driving freight higher? also, prices being passed on to the consumer. we saw that with conagra today. lumber, futures wiped out massive gains we saw back in early of 20 to anyone. lumber aside, core headline inflation pointed toward increasing prices. joe: people continue to talk about how this is likely to be transitory. we can attribute the move ongoing to used cars, certain other things that are likely. nonetheless, we do see quite a rise here. cpi, no matter how you want to slice it, basically every measure you look at. headline, core, annualized, three-month annualized, median,
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it is all gathering speed. for more, let's welcome democrat congressman from virginia, don buyer. thank you for joining us. when you look at this economy right now, it is growing really fast, inflation is moving up. a lot of people think it is transitory but it is higher than it has been lately. what are the key things that from your perspective need to be addressed? rep. beyer: i would start with the fact that we want to celebrate record economic growth this year, somewhere between 7% and 8%. the unemployment rate continues to fall. wages are up more than they have been in a long time. on thursday, the child tax credit kicks in. this is $3000 per child, per family, per year. we are all watching the inflation numbers cautiously. it is an easy attack point for
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my republican friends. i have spent most of my adult life has an automobile dealer. all of those rental car companies that did not buy cars last year that they could not rent now are buying used cars because that is all that is available. half of the inflation last month was the 10% surge. at the last time, the june auction prices went down. i warned my brother, the ceo of the company earlier today, be careful, those prices are coming down. joe: can we just make this a used car segment? [laughter] rep. beyer: we could. romaine: congressman, you are certainly an expert on that given your life prior to joining congers. you also know a lot about economics and business in general. we are at a stage now where the economy is doing well. we are waiting for wages to match some of that growth.
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while we have seen wages come up somewhat here, particularly in some services injuries -- services industries, is there a sense with this recovery that we will see much broader participation in the fruits of this recovery than we did coming out of the financial crisis? rep. beyer: i would hope so. every state has put a minimum wage issue on the ballot, it has passed. joe biden was talking the other day about putting -- back into capitalism. we also see, of the 12 million jobs advertised last week, that the mismatch between the people that are available to go to work and the jobs that are available, i think will ultimately drag an awful lot of wages. our workforce participation is not where we want. we want to get it back to high 60's.
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the best way to do that is to keep raising wages. caroline: we saw a real wages coming down in the day today because inflation is eating into any increase in wages. he said there is more ammunition for your republican friends at the moment if you do see inflation pressure on the up and up. what are your levels of optimism about getting more fiscal spending? getting infrastructure deals done. rep. beyer: i am very optimistic it will happen. my perfect world, we have a bipartisan part infrastructure, which would include water systems, railroads, and the like, and then using reconciliation on the human capital. that includes things like the child tax credit, which would allow many more women and men to get back into the task force.
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joe: how urgent are some of these bills in your view? rep. beyer: it is going to be a very busy next two weeks. we have been warned by senator schumer on the senate side and nancy pelosi on the outside, we are very much expected to come back as often as we are needed. romaine: part of that, we are still awaiting progress on that enter structure bill. where do we stand right now? rep. beyer: the house is very clear. we already passed a bill by a big margin last week. the senate is very tentative. you have the 50-50, joe manchin, kyrsten sinema. it is just an hour to hour thing. at the bottom, at the end, if we can't get the bipartisan bill, we are ready to push through a
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totally partisan infrastructure plan. but that is not what we would like to do. we have to have a win for the american people. caroline: congressman, we thank you for joining us today. now, let's get out to the first word news. here is mark upton. no, we are actually going to break. apologies. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i'm mark crumpton. president biden today delivered an emotional and combative speech in defense of broadening the right to vote. he called it a national imperative for congress to pass legislation that would counter new republican loss in several states that curb ballot access.
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pres. biden: who gets to count whether or not your vote counted at all? it is about moving from independent election administrators who work for the people to polarized state legislatures and partisan actors who work for political parties. to be, this is very simple. this is election subversion. mark: the latest flashpoint in voting rights is in texas where most of the democratic representatives in the statehouse left monday for washington in order to prevent the republican majority from passing new voting curbs. the lawmakers will meet with democratic congressional leaders and vice president kamala harris this week, but they warned they could not stop the republican voting bill indefinitely. people have been killed in rioting in south africa. many were said to be trampled to death during looting and stores
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as police and the military fired stun grenades and rubber bullets. the arrest -- the unrest was triggered by the imprisonment last week of former president jacob zuma. the death toll from monday at a hospital in southern iraq has risen to more than 100 people. some are blaming local and government officials for what they call years of mismanagement and neglect. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. romaine: today, we are focused on inflation, and lumber, something we don't talk about a
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lot, we have seen a massive rise. we used to. joe, i am sure this is a situation where we will put up like a one year chart. also, a 10 and 20 year chart. joe: i feel bad because we did talk about it a lot on the way up. romaine: if you pull out like 20 years -- joe: i think we should still talk about it. joining us to discuss, the ceo of the deacon lumber company. what happened? it was all lumber all the time for a while. then, let's go chicken on the lumber market. what happened? >> i think people got tired of hearing about it. early on, i said, you want lumber to stop going down, you got to stop buying it. that is effectively what happened. we talked about the short squeeze dynamics. folks were overcommitted and
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underbody. we are certainly lower than where i thought we would go. now, what is changing. you don't go up like we did, $1700, now down below $700, without something systematically changing. i just the industry is not putting themselves in short squeeze situations anymore. so if you are not short, there is no pressure to buy. i think that is what we are experiencing. we know homebuilders have slowed down their pace. there is less commitment. so, folks are not as antsy to buy because they don't have as much to cover. caroline: there was a lot of movement within certain contracts, borrowing in the near-term future. what is the longer-term lumber market telling us in terms of where markets go? stinson: i think i have a
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different view than most. it is wild to think that you can look at contracts for 12 months out at any commodity and think, that is where prices are going to be come july 2022. that is not ultimately how they use -- how they are used. when it costs me to store lumber or store oil for 12 months. if it is paying you carry, you take whatever cost carry is today, you can sell a future to cover your carry, then we are oversupplied. it has less to do with the flat price. i do not have a lot of judgment on what the contracts are telling me. no one is logging in 2022 prices on a flat perspective. that is not how it works. a lot of folks i think don't understand that. but we saw the curve flip. all the volatility is in the front end of the curve.
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commodities are just in time business. that is worldly action is on the front -- that is where all the action is on the front end. romaine: still looking at 680, 685. i am curious about the house and dynamics. there is a narrative that a lot of the prices we saw in may, it was driven by home construction, also a lot of home remodelers, people going out to home depot to build decks. how much of that dynamic here could depress prices over the next few months? stinson: i think that is playing a huge part in how depressed prices are right now and how quickly we have fallen. the do-it-yourself customer, we call it shoulder carry come our way more sensitive to price. -- shoulder carry, are way more
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sensitive to price. i think that is what happens, the home centers had a lot of wood committed to them in anticipation of a redo in building season, stay-at-home, and it did not materialize. joe: every time i tweet a lumber chart, someone is like, why doesn't someone show this chart to home depot or lowe's. the belief is, that it has not filtered into the lumber or wood they can buy. when is that going to happen? stinson: that is a great question. lumber keeps going down because no one has bought it. if that is the case, the vendors, their average price is still well above $1000. once the price stops going down, that means a lot of people have stepped in to buy. oddly enough, until the price finds a floor and bounces,
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prices won't come down because average prices are still very high. clearly, people are not stepping into by, the average price roughly the same as 10 weeks ago. romaine: one of the best things to come out of all the madness of the lumber market, we got introduced to stinson dean, one of the smartest people. he is the ceo of deacon lumber company. coming up, we will continue this conversation about some of the pressures in the economy. we will be talking about shipping costs. we will discuss the extent of the supply chain prices with the ceo of freighto. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: today, we are focused
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on the stress in the economic system. joe, we continue to see these soaring prices notably freight prices. joe: lumber prices, if you want to move it, particularly internationally, it is going up. when are we going to bend the curve? there you see various lines from shipping to the u.s. from asia and so forth. joining us now for more insight, zvi schreiber, the ceo of international online freight marketplace, freightos. why don't you tell us what freightos does? what is your perspective on the shipping market. zvi: freightos is a digital marketplace for matching carriers, shipping services, with importers and exporters. traditionally, that has been a very inefficient market, undemocratic based on relationship. freightos is digitizing that.
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that is the capacity for shipping, demand for shipping. importers and exporters get matched efficiently. that was one of our indexes. the freightos index, which shows the prices of shipping around the world. romaine: use the word efficiency. i think for a lot of consumers on the ground, we are being told that wait times can be months, in some cases up to a year. overseas, they are being made. i am curious if you can distill for us, what is the main hang up , getting these products into our ports onto the truck and into our homes. zvi: the main hang up is americans are suddenly buying more stuff. actually spending more money on goods.
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pre-covid in the average month, 1.2 million containers worth. this containers you see on the screen. now, building ships takes a couple of years, these are big, big shifts. it will take an industry a while. covid outbreak, the main reason is. joe: we know that people are spending and buying a lot more we have known this for a while. when does that change? zvi: there are two scenarios. one, things open up, perhaps they go back to their old spending habits. that is one scenario.
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that could happen any time. if that is not, and it only changes when ships come to the market, and ships have been ordered. 20,000, like the one you are showing now. if americans keep buying at this rate, it will take quite a while. it could take a couple of years. caroline: there is a lot of people tearing their hair out right now, people who thought maybe it is ok finding a sofa, but seasonal products, particularly small businesses. is there anything that can alleviate the immediate pressure points as we wait for more ships to be built? zvi: we do not just shipping but also air cargo. caroline: that is more
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expensive. zvi: it is a lot more expensive. time sensitive, you can put them on a plate, digitizing that area. effectively, we are up about 1000 percent year on year. of course, we provide comparisons. sometimes, the most direct shipping route is available. sometimes, more capacity on alternative routes. having more digital markets does open up other options to some extent. also, matched anymore democratic way. right now, the hallmarks, they use the relationships to get on the ship. so we are trying to make sure that at least the capacity that does exist is allocated democratically.
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romaine: do you see a scenario where we see getting back to a shipping world pre--- a pre-pandemic shipping world in the near future? zvi: anyone in the industry who predicted the price would drop in the past year. it is hard to predict the future. so, like i said, one of the scenarios, restaurants and travel reopened, that would solve the problem very quickly. caroline: zvi schreiber, freightos ceo, trying to iron out some of the inefficiencies. such insight that we are getting from these people. never have we been so hooked on freight? joe: congressman talking about used cars, lumber trader talking about lumber, shipping tech expertise. we are getting to know the real economy here. this is the real thing.
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caroline: meanwhile, your secondhand carp cost more than a new one. joe: "bloomberg technology" is next. romaine: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide in silicon valley and beyond. this is "bloomberg technology" with emily chang. emily: it is not a new concept but it is the latest push by apple to get users to use apple pay. how it will rival paypal and affirm.

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