♪ >> when you look ahead the next few quarters,

cash, but that wears off. some of the strength and the consumer we are seeing in these credit card spending data, that is going to start to shift to the business sector. >> this is more transitory. so far the market is believing. >> we cannot afford higher rates, and it is very unlikely that we will reach the height of the last cycle. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, a simulcast. for "surveillance," it is a strategy refresh. for citigroup, it is a strategy refresh. jonathan: making progress on that strategy refresh at citi. let's talk about those numbers. investment banking revenue, 1.58 billion dollars. the estimate, 1.63 billion dollars. so a little shy of the estimate there. a miss on fixed income sales and trading revenue at 3.21 billion dollars. the estimate, $3.6 billion. the language is constructive. optimistic about the moment, had come the pace of the global recovery exceeding. for the numbers, downside surprise. a little shy of estimates in the investment bank and for trading revenue at fix them revenue specifically -- trading revenue, and fixed income revenue

specifically. tom: citigroup under one on a book value. that is the distance citigroup has to make up. jonathan: equity sales and trading revenue comes in a little north of the estimate at $1.06 billion. i think the investment banking number is going to be a disappointment because we saw some strength elsewhere on wall street forget sonali has been talking over the last 24 hours about who got market share. did the pie get bigger? things were huge in the first half of this year. clearly a mess there as well for citi that will go down as somewhat of a disappointment -- a miss as well for citi that will go down as sort of a disappointment. lisa: it is interesting for me to see that this is her first year at the helm, and you can see they are lagging behind in some areas, but the shares are not responding to that. i just want to point out one aspect. citi pretty could expending --

predicted tech spending would lead this year. i wonder how much this speaks to your discussion on the future of thin tech and a more optimistic view for citigroup. tom: sonali basak with us, our wall street correspondent. in all of the calls you make, is citigroup part of the big banks, or are they and also ran. sonali: it is a big question because we know they are going through those regulatory issues. this is jane frazier's. -- jane frazier's first full quarter at the head of the company. they fell short of expectations and advisory. we knew they were behind bank of america just by where this global table sat. at the same time these numbers were coming out, cfo -- the cfo was speaking to the media and saying they were seeing market share gains, especially in the

market businesses across america. these deals are somewhat smaller than we have seen in previous boom times for deals. that market share question again is going to continue to be a big story this year, as we see divergence among businesses on wall street. jonathan: stocks down in the premarket, basically unchanged on citi. a little bit of a guide from bank of america, some struck -- some instructive language for citi. what is the forward look for the rest of this year? sonali: citigroup is cheaper relative to its peers, trading below book value. so as they try to build more market share, and jane frazier's early days as the company, can they maintain that while it as high as it is? these are all questions that are outstanding for citigroup. the cost question is interesting because you look at bank of america and wells fargo, both of their headcount are down on the

quarter, yet at bank of america, the costs are still higher for compensation, expenses, and other expenses. so how is citigroup going to be competitive. it comes down to not only for its ability, but also what they going to be competitive? -- going to be competitive? it comes down to not only its flexibility, but also what are they going to do? we heard goldman sachs saying 50% of the people are coming back end to the offices. i spoke to one of goldman's top angers that says returns to august help them -- top managers that says the returns in august help them. jonathan: final word. pretty much all of the banks

have delivered now. morgan stanley delivering tomorrow. what you looking for now? sonali: they want to grow their lending book, the one place in loans that is growing on wall street, and are they able to maintain their wallet in equities? we know that goldman sachs and jp morgan have been nipping at their heels for many quarter, and showing some gains. jonathan: sonali basak, bloomberg wall street correspondent, thank you. let's bring in david george, robert w baird -- senior research analyst. what do you think? david: it's great to be here. i think the numbers overall were good and continued to reflect an improving economy. that is in credit quality really across the board. lisa: when we take a look at the numbers, one thing that has topped all of the bank earnings is the lack of loan growth. i want to make sure there is loan growth. it doesn't come among the wealthier individuals.

how much is that key point here, that wealthy individuals are borrowing verse their asset so they don't have to liquidate portfolios that are currently listed in equity markets? sonali: that's a great point -- david: that's a great point. we have seen that fairly significant growth in securities based loans. wealthy individuals using their stock portfolios and wealth portfolios to use debt for other purposes, to buy a home or whatever. so we are also seeing a growth in credit card. other than that, loan demand continues to be pretty soft. tom: i want you to parachute in some of the great anchors out five years. which of these banks is best position for five years off? david: i will try not to make any big headlines.

i think the industry in many ways is in as good a shape as it has ever been, particularly for the risk perspective. it has made a lot of these companies very utility like in nature with respect to the pretty debility of their revenues and their earnings, and then general a lower risk perspective of these business models. they've all got a ton of capital must give again access to liquidity. this has been the solution to the pandemic rather than a problem that it was in the 2008-2009 timeframe. jonathan: what do you make of the argument that the consumer is really strong coming out of the crisis this time, and that is going to generate rewards when it comes to loan growth further down the road? do you buy into that? david: i do. i am little worried that consensus i patients -- that consensus expectations are for a lack of loan growth.

the story really is deposit. bfa has got over $2 trillion in deposits, so there is significant deposit coming into the system, so it is simply not intuitive from our perspective to expect a lot of loan growth until you see deposits start to leave the system. once you get a sense of that, i think you will see loan growth approved. on the corporate side, supply chain disruptions are definitely playing a role, so i do think you will see a small step function higher once some of those supply chain issues become resolved. but if in the meantime, i think it is going to be pretty slow going. lisa: can you build on the idea of deposits creasing -- deposits increasing at a slow pace? ? is there in incoherence and that people are still sassing away so much in their savings?

david: part of it is simply the government cashing out the banks. i don't really see that changing much in their term. i think in 2022, we should see loan growth start to get better, but not nearly as strong as may be what we had gotten accustomed to over the last 20 to 25 years. jonathan: do we have to give them the toaster to take our deposits now? is that the future? [laughter] tom: that is a really sophisticated question, seriously. jon, the toast is toasted. david, furman square is a toaster. are those people changing the debate? what is the fear level on modern fin tech for these bankers? david: it is a good question. these behemoth banks continue to

be infringed upon, and you mentioned fin tech companies. where banks differ h had themselves -- banks differentiate themselves is their ability to underwrite risk, as well as their funding. they have all of these others, but we think we have the sophisticated modeling ability, scale comps of -- scale, and functioning. jonathan: thank you. david george, robert w baird senior research analyst. jonathan: 4368 on the s&p. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.

united arab emirates has resolved its standoff with the open bus coalition. a delegate tells -- the opec+ coalition. a delegate tells us the deal will get a new reorder. if the compromise is ratified, that the -- that opens the way for more oriole being pumped -- more oil being pumped. it will have impact on every corner of the economy, from how people heat their homes to the cars they drive. every industry would be forced to cut pollution by at least 55% from 1990 levels. you can -- new combustion engine cars would be illuminated. democrats on the senate budget committee have agreed to a 3.5 trillion dollars spending plan that would expand medicare and provide more generous childcare benefits. the legislation would carry most

of president biden's agenda into law. the agreement is a win for budget chairman bernie sanders. he has pushed for that expansion. an increase in iphone shipments this year. the company asked its suppliers to build as many as 90 million generation iphones in 2021, roughly a 20% increase from last year. the next iphones will be apple's second was 5g, a key feature pushing users to upgrade. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i medicaid. -- i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> eventually we expect higher

interest rates, higher loan growth, higher traditional banking revenues, higher revenues from main street that is the next part of the story, so do not leave the u.s. bank stock show yet. it is just intermission. jonathan: that is the message from mike mayo, wells fargo securities head of u.s. large-cap bank research. i think he actually had the prop popcorn with him. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this wednesday, here's the price action in your equity market. we are up seven, almost sera .2% on the s&p to four 360 -- almost 0.2% on the s&p to 4268. there's a lift to this equity market driven by big tech. outside of that, yields are in three basis points. your 10 year, 1.3829%. we will hear from the chairman himself, chairman powell's testimony coming up later in washington. tom: i am certain chairman greenspan willow -- ring span

would allude to it, it is terrible out there because tech -- greenspan would allude to it, it is terrible out there because tech is up. s&p 500 up 36, 37. the nasdaq trails, up 40%. apple, a moonshot this morning. they are going to sell some more iphones. brian levitt has 14 apple products at his house. he joins us this morning with invesco, their global market strategist. thank you, in your research note, for saying, what everybody just shut up and look at the revenue growth. how growthy are you right now? brian: i am pretty growthy. what investors have to realize is there's the recovery phase of a cycle. it is when things like deep value perform well, and the really cyclical parts of the market perform well. we are moving into an expansion

and ultimately we will move into a slowdown. to me, this always felt like a reversion from a very deep place to some kind of mean, but nothing structural has changed in terms of what outperformance will be. tom: how do you respond to the reality we live 20, 30 years ago, which is that every eight years, nine years, value surges and then goes to sleep again? has it really changed? brian: no, it hasn't changed. value tends to need a catalyst, and a catalyst tends to come in the early stages of a cycle as the economy is moving to a new higher rate of growth and as policy remains very accommodative for a long period of time. you can see value outperformance for a handful of years, but the challenge with this cycle is that everything is happening very quickly. we had a very sharp recession quick. we had a very quick recovery, and we have moved into an expansion phase where we are

already seeing the yield curve flatten. so everything has accelerated in terms of the duration of it, so it is probably a shorter value cycle then what you have seen in the past. jonathan: that brings up the call of the morning from steve mager of hsbc, who says we have already seen a peak in the yield curve. brian: i was listening, and i love that call. in order to think that the 10 year is going meaningfully higher, you would have to assume that the was economy is going to a higher level of structural growth, structural inflation. i find that story is challenged. 1.25% was quite low, and you could see rates trend higher, but i don't think they are going meaningfully higher, so could 1.75 the high?

certainly -- could 1.7 type percent b the high -- 1.75% be the high? certainly. we are still coming from a very low level of rates, so can rates trend up a bit? sure. we think of the cycle in recovery, where value does very well, expansion, which is where we are now. value and growth both tend to do well. as you move into the slowdown, that is when the value story starts to dissipate. i don't think we are moving into a slowdown in the next couple of quarters, but as we move into 2 022, absolutely. the growth stocks will be the performers's throughout the rest of the cycle. lisa: when we talk about inflation, you are in the transitory camp that's with these really are pressures from the reopening trait. at what point do these upward

prices put a crimp on the recovery itself and dampen people's willingness to go out and spend money? brian: jonathan told me i am not allowed to say transitory, so i will go with temporary. lisa: you just did, but go ahead. we are all drinking. [laughter] brian: you are right, at some point the solution to higher prices is higher prices. we have unleashed a lot of pent-up demand, and you see it in things like hotels and airlines. but how many vacations can we all go on at the same time businesses are working to rebuild inventory? i think prices will start to moderate then. you kind of see it in lumber prices. lumber prices are all the way back to where they were after all of the handwringing over it because there was a slowdown in demand and prices got too high. tom: can we ask how many vacations we can go on? [laughter] let's not do that now. jonathan: i wonder if the more

appropriate question is a different one. whenever you bring up the word transitory, people are arguing about different things. the question others are asking is a simple one. do you think the push higher in price is now will overwhelm a sustainable recovery and force the fed to come in early? i think that is really the question we've got to grapple with. what is the answer to that? brian: that is the big question. i don't think that will happen for a variety of reasons. i think the pent-up demand will start to moderate. i do think that as this is are going to be working to rebuild supplies. i think the prospect of a slower growth environment is also part of perhaps less fiscal support next year, perhaps higher taxes next year, so altogether should mean a slower growth environment that helps to ease inflationary pressures. it is not only me that sees it. you can see it in the bond market.

nonetheless, you see higher inflation expectations for one year then you do over two, three and five years, so the bond market expects this to moderate as well, and the bond market tends to get it right or than any other indicator. jonathan: i think you've got a friend called steve and hong kong. brian, thank you. [laughter] steven mnuchin speaking earlier this morning, saying he doesn't think inflation is transitory. the fed should trim asset purchases immediately. i imagine secretary yellen has a different view on things if she were to give the fed any advice. tom: the punditry right now, we are just walking through the mud of the punditry right now. whatever anybody's view is, it is amazing how the punditry has heated up. can i point out in the growth giannis, someone like -- in the growthiness, someone like ben laidler, up off of his december

2018 call? i am dazzled by all of the negativity out there. jonathan: you know what we missed? how many vacations can you take? we asked the wrong person. lisa: i think we are out of time. we've got eight seconds left. [laughter] jonathan: from new york city, on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures 4367 on the s&p 500. testimony from chariman powell. with the headlines here is michael mckee. michael: chairman powell breaks no new ground in his opening statement, offering an upbeat assessment of the economic recovery while maintaining it is still too early to begin talking about cutting back on monetary policy support. the economy is on track for its strongest growth in decades, powell says, but taking a line from the latest fed statement, adds "we continue to expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current target fund range

for the federal funds rate until the fed reaches its goal of maximum employment." while he does not refer to yesterday's unexpectedly high cpi readings, he does say inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated before moderating. most inflation pressures, he says, are coming to the reopening of the economy from base effects and supply chain challenges. they should start to fade. what is important is measures of inflation expectations have moved up from there pandemic low and are in a range the fed considers consistent with the fomc longer run inflation golf. the labor market has improved although minorities have yet to see significant benefits. he predicts job gains should be strong as public health conditions continue to improve

in some of the other pandemic factors weighing them down diminish. while substantial further progress has not been achieved yet, the committee will continue to discuss when they should start tapering. they will talk about it in future meetings. not a lot of meat. the fed sticking to its guns even in the face of those higher inflation readings. tom: for the complete report i think we have to go to the soap opera at hand, which is lawrence summers. with the biden administration and some allusion he talked to them about who would be the next fed chair. will you listen, or what will you listen for with chairman powell that affirms his desire to continue as chairman? michael: i do not think you will get anything. i think he will be asked and he will say what he always says. i am focused on doing my job now . the decision is up to the president.

lisa: as we were getting those headlines from chair powell, we also get data on inflation. here is some more. ppi coming in, ex food and energy up 1% versus the survey expectation of .5%. demand up 7.3%. talk about price pressures versus the expectation for 6.7%. at what point does jay powell go beyond talking about transitory and talk about the real-world effects of these higher prices on consumer appetite, on the ability for people to have a life? michael: it is a tough job for the fed chairman because they believe these prices are going to start to come back down. the pipeline pressures are still there, and republicans on capitol hill will give him a hard time because americans do not like paying higher prices. we have seen a decline in lumber

prices and we can hope gasoline prices start to come down. other prices should moderate. we can say the ppi year-over-year in the core ppi are at record highs. the month over month did not reach a record because in march of 2020 it was up 72%. tom: michael mckee, thank you so much. 33 miles southwest of jackson hole. we have to do it data check. nasdaq up .6%. we will launch some records there today. what i noticed is a complete deterioration of the real yield. new big negative numbers, new lows. another thrust from where everybody wants to be -- wants to go. jonathan: you have to pay attention to what is happening in the bond market. we just had a german say we have more work to do.

we are seeing data, it is hot, far hotter than expected. look at what is happening with yield. the 30 year yield threatening to break below 2%. yields coming in four basis on 30's. almost five basis points on 10. lisa: either the federal reserve will be forced to hike rates faster or curtail more rapidly, or these higher prices could crimp demand. the reason lumber prices are coming down, people are demanding fewer lumber products because of the prices. you wonder about the feedback loop. jonathan:'s conviction we have more work to do in the labor market. if you look at the population rate, there is a belief in the federal reserve we can get back to those numbers, we can get those data points back to where we were before the pandemic.

i do not think everyone is convinced of that when it comes to participation rates in america. there are some people who believe things have to change. tom: on balance in oklahoma, they have a 4% on employment rate, they want to get back to 3.1%. we will see. we have the right guest at the right time. steven ricchiuto joins us with decades of experience. i have a debate on gdp right now. goldman sachs with some enthusiasm. will we have a soggy and rapid downturn from this boom economy or will it sustain longer than we can imagine? steven: it will continue to be above trend in 2022. our estimate will be three point 5% friday for 2022. by the time we get to 2023 we be back down to the 2.25% area for growth. we will not be able to sustain this unless we get a bounce of

fiscal policy. this is one of the reasons the federal reserve will be late to the party as opposed early in the party, allowing this to continue to run as hot as it can for as long as it can. jonathan: what you make of the argument conditions we are facing could overcome the recovery and shorten the duration of the cycle. what you make of that? steven: business cycles in the world of global excess supply are not driven by elation, they are driven by credit quality. when you look at the underlying credit quality of household sector and the nonfinancial corporate sector, they are all extremely healthy. this is going to be a long expansion. it may not be exceptionally robust beyond the 2023 period, but it is going to be a long expansion. credit quality will take a long time to erode from the high levels we are at right now.

lisa: as the fed pledges to remain tight, who are there policies helping the most? high or low income households? steven: they are trying to create a former labor market environment with the intent of pulling a lot of the workers back into the labor market, getting them back employed in jobs that will continue to grow. it is a tough order for them to accomplish this. i agree with some of the points jonathan was making earlier that things will be different on the other end of it in terms of productivity change. i think the federal reserve, given the political conditions, has no alternative but to let this run and see if they can accomplish those goals. tom: i think of steven wieting at citigroup and you having phenomenal abilities to calculate what corporate america will do and how it bolted to gdp. the fact is what we are seeing

corporations adapt to this crisis. do we underestimate their ability to create revenue and create profit? steven: i think they're going to surprise everybody with how much they can create profitability and earnings. the one thing i think the fed is fighting which is very difficult for them to counter is the idea that corporate america is still very focused on reducing labor compensation. one of the things that comes out of the covid recession was a real push towards reducing the amount of labor necessary in a lot of service oriented jobs. this is what makes the bar the fed has set for itself that much harder to accomplish. that will drive the profitability. jonathan: as always, great to see you. thank you for being with us. steven ricchiuto on the latest data and the testimony we are set to hear from chairman powell in several hours. here is the price action in

response to that. yields in four basis points. equities doing ok. up one third of 1% on the s&p to 43.75. the nasdaq 100 up almost 100 points. held down by what is happening in the bond market. prices for the factory are flying, prices for the consumer are flying. there is a believe some of this is temporary. the question we have to ask, does it overwhelm the recovery? that is the big debate for this bond market, with yields in five basis points. lisa: to be more nuanced, does this overcome the recovery for the lower income households that will suffer more with respect to the prices and increasing a proportion of their income.

you have to wonder what the bond market is saying. tom pointed out the real yields, the fact we are seeing more than a -1% real yield and yields remained low because of the fed, but they do see inflation ticking higher. tom: coming up with a net -- jonathan: coming up in the next hour, kathy jones on this very topic. lisa heads to radio. tom goes on vacation for a couple of hours. he will be on balance of power with annmarie hordern later this afternoon. looking forward to that. tom: looking forward to it for 3.5 trillion reasons. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the european union wants to impose the world's first carbon import tax. it would be placed on certain emissions intensive goods produced in countries with lower environmental standards. it is part of a broader package

aimed at getting the eu to phase out fossil fuels. president biden says it is a national imperative for congress to pass voting rights legislation to counter state laws passed by the republicans. the president called the efforts to perfect ballot access alexion subversion. the latest flashpoint in texas. democratic representatives in the statehouse left for washington in order to prevent the republican majority from passing new voting limits. janet yellen and jerome powell will discuss the financial risks of the hot housing market. they will meet with fellow regulators on friday. the goal is to make sure the u.s. is not vulnerable to a crisis like the one it suffered more than a dozen years ago. nike has lost a task bat -- a tax battle in the european union. it wants to keep the eu from investigating its tax affairs. the question was whether tax laws by the netherlands may have

given nike an unfair advantage. in china what to be a huge shift for the country's consumer internet. alibaba and tencent may open up their services to one another. that is according to dow jones. beijing's recent tech crackdown makes it hard for the companies to maintain virtual barriers. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is harder to ensure american innovations are used for commercial purposes only.

countries like china do not differentiate between civilian and military in the same way. emerging technologies, including ai applications, blur that line, too. we have to think differently about how to protect our industries against that kind of misuse. tom: antony blinken talking about the path forward for state and emerging technology. this is the global emerging technology summit. lisa abramowicz and tom keene, we digressed of corporate management and moving forward in this pandemic. anthony capuano is the marriott ceo and his had the toughest task of management of any corporate officer in america, filling the shoes of the great aaron sorensen. i will go to cornell hotel and aaron sorensen, life is service. how you manage this tough task? anthony: thanks for having me.

great to be back in person. i had good fortune of working with him for a quarter of a century. the easiest way to manage the grief the marriott family has experienced is to honor his legacy by continuing all of great work he had done and continuing down the path yet set forth for us. tom: cornell hotel did not have a course, pandemic 11. anthony: they may now. what have you learned? anthony: i have learned how valuable our culture is, how resilient our people are. much people miss travel. i have learned how responsive we need to be to these crises. we had to not only stabilize the balance sheet in a matter of weeks, but rollout all new operating and cleanliness protocols in 133 countries around the world in a matter of weeks. lisa: how difficult is it to hire enough personnel to meet

the incredible demand of people want to get back on the road? anthony: it varies by market. the markets in the u.s. where we see demand spike most, california, texas, florida. we are competing with labor not only with other hospitality and travel companies but with those industries that have thrived. we really have to be much more proactive and deliberate about reminding folks about the appeal and opportunities that exist. lisa: meanwhile as we are dealing with supply chain kinks and labor market frictions we are dealing with the different international backdrop. we had president biden worn companies about doing business in hong kong. how are you dealing with these types of warnings, possibly more than saber rattling, particularly with respect to china where i know you work spent -- you are planning to expand. anthony: we continue to expand in china.

we have about 400 hotels open in another 400 in the pipeline. we are helped. the entirety of our footprint in pipelines are owned by chinese owners. we are viewed as a chinese company versus an american company. in terms of the ownership of the assets. we have to navigate these complexities in 133 countries around the world. it starts with being good corporate citizens. tom: the best thing you ever did was store the old tinker bureau at the saint regions hotel in new york. the old kin -- the old king coal mural at the saint regions hotel in new york. -- how will you do that, given the politics of beijing? anthony: at least during the pandemic, given the condition of borders in china, china's written -- is relying entirely

on domestic demand. when we look at corporate business travel in march, we were 6% ahead of where we were in march 2019. the volume is there, the pricing power is there, the mix is different. lisa: are you starting to see global travel wax or wayne given the increase in delta variate around the world? anthony: it varies by market. we track and analyze the data in real time. when the eu came out with a fairly opaque statement about borders opening to international travel, we saw booking volume jumped 40% in two weeks. when greece came out with more specific details on what would be required to enter the country, we immediately exceeded demand booking volume from 2019. then you shift to other parts of the world, countries like india still struggling with the pandemic. we see really muted demand patterns. lisa: i just travel

internationally it was amazing to see how everyone felt like they were getting in just under the wire and they were all checking the news to see what additional restrictions might be in place on the way back. if things were different -- things were different, including the number of times the housekeeper would come into the hotel room to change the towels. things would not be out to take as they previously were. how much of this will be the new normal? anthony: i think there will be changes we made that will endure beyond the pandemic. some of the contactless technology we have put in place, the ability to check in and check out on the app, chat with the hotel staff through your device. mobile keep in 4000 hotels across the world. things like housekeeping and how we deliver food and beverage service will evolve on a market by market basis. if you're in china, the buffets are back. tom: i looked at goldman sachs

arguing about raising pay. do you have to raise the pay of your employees because of employers like amazon competing in a lower wage and benefit package? amazon and bezos are affecting you? anthony: they are affecting the entirety of the travel and tourist industry. tom: what is amazon doing to affect your employee pay structure? anthony: their entry-level wage rates are putting pressure on wage rates in certain markets. one of the things we are wrestling with, the employment market at large has often viewed travel and tourism as a safe harbor industry. i think some of that confidence has been rattled when you look at global occupancy dropping down into the low teens at the outset of the pandemic. all the travel and tourism companies had to make heart-wrenching decisions around

furloughs and job elimination. i think we have to do a lot of work to restore confidence this is an industry you can build a long-term career. tom: i need a $25 lobster roll. get to work. anthony capuano, chief executive officer, arguably the ceo of the year on the death of arnie sorensen. the news flow absolutely different than what i would've thought at 9:00 last night. lisa: i want to emphasize something tony said, which was fascinating. people do not have faith in the same careers they did in the past and that needs to be restored. that speaks to the labor market frictions jay powell will address at noon. perhaps the participation rate is not where it is because people are not sure about their careers. it is a new world post-pandemic. tom: no question. we will try forward this conversation on infrastructure in washington, we are thrilled to bring you at 12:00 austin

goolsby of chicago. former council of economic advisors chairman. stay with us through the morning on radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪ te

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. good morning, good morning. 30 minutes to go. "the countdown to the open"

starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with a big issue. turning to chair powell for answers. >> chairman powell. >> chairman powell has a very difficult job. >> the risk of a mistake is elevated right now. >> inflation is front and center. >> we hear from chair powell. >> he has to walk the fine line between retaining his credibility and helping to keep inflation expectations anchored. >> he will sound sanguine on the inflationary pressure. >> the important thing is how he navigates on tapering. >> four members have been more