tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg July 19, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters, it has just gone 6:00 a.m. in london. i am dani burger. your top stories today -- england scraps social distancing rules despite soaring virus cases. johnson forced into a u-turn after being exposed to covid-19. pandemic concerns drive the market, global stocks decline
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and treasury yields drop for a fourth consecutive day. opec agrees to inject more crude into the economy, overcoming a split between saudi arabia and uae. good morning. we are starting this week with a general broad risk aversion. bond buying is in and equity markets are out so far this morning. you have the 10 year and 30
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february. it is -- since february. the earnings season the best in history. there are things clouding the earnings. you have opec-plus reaching a deal, sending oil lower. brent crude below $73 per barrel. you also have virus complications clouding the picture amid a divergence among the central banks. a slightly stronger dollar this morning. here is your equity picture. broadly risk off across the board. most indexes if not all lower this morning. the msci asia pacific down by nearly one and a quarter percent, threatening to erase all of its gains for the year, only up about 1% this year. the same negative picture for u.s. futures and european futures. the small-cap index down 7/10 of a percent. this picture does contrast with what we are seeing in places like the u.k., set to reappear. prime minister boris johnson plans to get the economy back to normal, and the plan is in disarray with covid cases rising and public outcry about the prime minister trying to dodge isolation rules after he was around someone who had tested
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positive. this is not the freedom day johnson may have wanted. let's get more from our u.k. economy reporter, outside cannon street station in london. first of all, happy monday. it doesn't feel like there is a lot of confusion headed into today. you have to wear masks on the underground. what probably are the changes that take lace today? -- broadly are the changes that take place today? >> restrictions on social contacts have lifted. you no longer need to wear a mask in public spaces. nightclubs are back open. all venues have capacity limits lifted. this is among the backdrop of rising cases in the u.k., 60,000 a day, the third highest in the world. on top of that, hundreds of thousands of workers have been swept into the pandemic, forced
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to stay at home because they've been notified they have been in contact with someone who tested positive for coronavirus. it even affected the prime minister and chancellor because they came into contact with the health secretary who tested positive for covid-19 over the weekend. as you say, they have had a u-turn on plans to avoid south -- self-isolating. freedom day is not the triumphant moment the government hoped it would bp dani: you would think -- hoped it would be. dani: you would think things would finally look back to normal but it doesn't seem quite that way. what are the reeds we are getting on the business sector and the optimism from here on out. >> today was meant to be back to the office day for white-collar workers, but as you can see from behind me, cannon street is hardly experiencing a stampede of the staff back to the office. jp morgan has said they are
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going to keep face masks and a 50% occupancy limits. bank of america is only expecting a few more staff. other companies like a resolute are saying they will make a more permanent shift. there canary wharf offices be repurposed into flexible collaboration spaces. underscoring the shift to the hybrid model of working, which is difficult for the ecosystem of his misses around here that depend on the flood of commuters every day. the government is going to have to sharpen the trade if they want to get back into control of the virus. we are opening -- opening at the height of summer was always going to be a gamble. dani: thank you for staying on top of this for us. also keep it here on bloomberg, we will be speaking to the
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london mayor about the reopening later today. let's talk all things reopening and a dour day in market so far. joining us, we have martin malone. thank you for joining us. i know manus is crushed you are joining us on a day he is not here. when you look at these markets, there is obviously a big contrast to an economic picture, when you have economies trying to open up. the u.s. 10 year yield below 1.8%. why are markets so dour compared to economic data? martin: good morning. i think it is a number of issues. the most important factor is, as you pointed out, the bond rally down to 125% in australia and the u.s., and also these growth issues that look quite solid in europe and america. it is basically that we have a
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stagflation risk coming from supply shocks. we can see supply shocks everywhere, like your reporter said on cannon street. we have a supply shock in jobs, in the energy market, the other commodities. we have a supply shock in many goods and supplies across many industries that is well-recognized. it is coming through on two levels. one, we have a significant deceleration in growth in places like china and significant inflation upward move in a ppi and cpi and places like the u.s.. the supply shock is emanating in two areas, but overall it is a stagnation risk. and in a stagnation risk, bonds will rally. dani: if this is a supply shock, if that is emanating throughout the economy, how much can the fed affect things if a lot of
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what we are seeing is from the oddity of an economy reopening? martin: i think you touched on it earlier, and that is -- and it is very much worth emphasizing, we have divergent moves between central banks here. just in the last few weeks, we have had a very big -- last month from the fed. they were hawkish and they are trying to walk that back. then we had a big surprise from the chinese when they cut reserve ratios across all measures. we are seeing the divergence of this move again this week because the ecb will be very dovish and the fed, as they run into the july meeting, we will have to see how they are. this time, moves between central banks, is this indication of -- they are very concerned about supply shortages and shock, and
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how they emanate through the economy later this year and into next year. dani: these are very large macro forces. within that, how much do earnings matter right now? martin: they do matter, but companies, do they have the opportunity to raise prices? most companies are raising prices. do they feel comfortable in that? the traction on -- we are not seeing the traction we would like to see on jobs. for instance, we saw over the last 18 months massive supports globally with governments supporting jobs and those of supports on subsidies and furlough programs will end in the second half of this year. will we see significant upward surprises on jobs? so far we have not seen that. whereas we are seeing all price
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gauges increasing. that in itself, you know, problems on jobs and upward surprises on prices, the stagnation of risk that will come through on the long end of the bond markets. dani: to your point, we've seen a lot of corporations from pepsico to siemens energy one about higher costs, whether it be from materials or labor. at this point, how important is it for companies to have rising power and be able to pass on costs and not see a hit to their margin? martin: that is a crucial point, and for instance, you can see over the past decades, corporates have had no pricing power. it's like the global equity market has been very high and macro tailwinds are extremely bullish. that means for equity markets and housing markets, they are very strong, for the corporate sector or any board, you have
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the best opportunity for decades to hike prices and they can potentially stick. because we have multiple supply shocks. the macro backdrop from monetary policy, fiscal policy and the banking system is very positive. much different than post the financial crisis. for companies, it is actually the best opportunity to put prices up and see when they stick. i think we will see that in the reports in the next few weeks in america and europe. dani: interesting to dig through what pricing power they have. martin, you will stick around, we have more to get through. let's go to the first word news. annabelle: france is to limit the use of a -- that provides vaccinations.
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that would only be needed to enter bigger shopping centers, this after there were marches to oppose use of the digital passport. angela merkel says there are barely words in the german language to describe the devastation from several floods that hit the west of the country last week. the german chancellor was speaking as she surveyed the damage to ryan lance. at least -- rhineland. at least 88 people have died. in japan, the olympic authorities have seen the first covid-19 positive tests from athletes. the south african soccer players tested postop -- positive, and coco gauff is out of the gains after she also returned a positive test. she had not yet traveled to tokyo. global news 24 hours a day on
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air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani? dani: thank you. coming up, we talk opec, where opec and allies resolve a that are internal dispute, pledging to restore millions of barrels of crude oil output to the energy market. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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economy and provides much-needed clarity from markets -- for markets. for more, we are joined by stephen. we have oil looking a little lower, down 9/10 of a percent. how generally would you categorize the market reaction to the new opec-plus packed? -- pact? stephen: overall, the reaction will be bearish. i think a lot of the market wasn't expecting they would be able to make this deal between the uae and saudi arabia. it is sooner than expected. they famously had broken down and were not able to make an august agreement. they will be adding 400,000 barrels per day in august, and to help with the deficit. looking longer-term out, there may be a more bullish factor for
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the market, to evolve into a price war. dani: bullish for the longer term. what other factors will the market be monitoring? stephen: let me go back on that real quick. there was a note put out this morning saying while they are adding more -- which will provide a short-term bearish element, there is this view that oil demand will keep rising. looking at the oil demand, and it will be over 400,000 barrels per day. there will still be a deficit going forward. it will be eased a bit, but overall the market will be short. there will be looking at deltek, and seeing how economies and countries react and try to break down this large surgeons of virus cases that could potentially derail demand. the virus and vaccinations will
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be a large thing we are watching. we will also be closely watching inventories in the united states, to see how dazzling inventories of drawdown, and what we are able to take away from this large supply, and if the nation and other countries will be getting closer to a larger deficit in the next few months. dani: stephen, thank you. we are still joined by martin malone. with this agreement in hand from opec plus, we talked a lot about supply shocks, is the risk of an oil driven supply shock now over? martin: to a certain extent, it is good news that two of the major players in opec have got a deal. what we have to remember is, we had the health care crisis, the pandemic, which was central to 2020, and opec-plus cut 10 million barrels. last year.
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they're still 6 million barrels short. it is almost like reverse tapering. we will have a 6 million barrels shortage reduced over the coming 1.5 years. we are still going to have severe under supply of oil in the markets. at the moment, that supply has been managed by opec plus, but we also have rampant demand. it is a very tricky situation because they have come to this deal that was a bit of a surprise over the weekend, we will not see up movements in oil prices the next few weeks. the oil price is going to remain tight for the second half of this year, and -- dani: we did have a point earlier in this year, oil included, that there was a fear of a commodities super cycle, and this would lead to inflationary shock, this is where we get the fed having to
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act, and could we still have a commodity driven inflationary picture that forces many central banks's hands earlier than expected? martin: i think so. that's why i think -- it is quite a difficult place. supply shock is a very difficult place for most central banks. this is going to be the difficulty for the fed next year. we also have the leadership difficulty in the fed and change between the doves and hawks next year. but the supply shot we have -- shock we have at the moment is extremely difficult to manage for any central bank. that's why you are seeing these divergent policies among the major central banks. that in itself is sending a clear single -- a signal to markets of the concern they have, and it is tricky and we have to be quite careful about how we position in markets.
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dani: speaking of positioning, one thing that seems to have severely shifted in terms of market consensus is positioning on the dollar. cftc data, you can see it shows dollar shorts have been wiped out in this market. we have nearly seen all of those shorts being covered. what does the positioning on the greenback tell you? will we see a stronger dollar from here on out? martin: the stronger dollar literally is the reflection of this divergent move we are seeing in central banks. you will also see, for instance, very low interest rates around the world. roughly the u.s. is going to low 1% levels. that would normally force a lot of investors into higher-yielding products. part of that, if we look around the world, is if we can see
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those in america. america may start attracting more of the flow. if we get risk factors on supply shots, we get risk factors on divergent monetary policy, risk factors on the delta variant, trouble from unvaccinated people, and this will be all factors that are positive for the u.s. dollar. dani: martin, so wonderful to catch up with you. that is martin alone. -- martin malone. coming up, we will turn to germany as angela merkel tours flooded areas and apologizes over a gap that threatens to destabilize her party ahead of september selection. this is bloomberg. ♪
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europe." i am dani burger in london. turning to germany, chancellor angela merkel has a toward areas of western germany that set this -- suffered devastating floods this last week. this came a day after her heir apparent was filmed laughing while germany's president made somber remarks about the flooding during a visit to the region, putting merkel in a damage control mode ahead of the september election. at the moment, what does the situation look like on the ground in germany? >> a lot of the rain has decided , although people think when it comes to floods, they are past the worst, especially in the worst affected areas in the west of the country. this weekend, we saw the flood shift not only from these western areas near belgium, but also to the south and east in
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saxony and bavaria and even into austria. it is clear this isn't a particularly affected region, it is something germany is dealing with across the country. the german cabinet will also be meeting on wednesday, where they will probably be discussing some sort of comprehensive recovery program for the affected areas. dani: we also have national elections this autumn. how is this crisis playing out politically? how will it affect those elections? aggi: from the start of these floods, it was being said a lot this was the sort of thing that might have -- might see the greens with the boost in the polls because they are centered on climate issues. they have a clear advantage to discuss these issues. but it could've also come down to the fact that at the start of
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one of the leader of the states badly affected, was talking about climate change and doing things faster. but at you -- as you said, he made some mistakes over the weekend, including being caught laughing on camera that seemed a little callous at the time when the president of germany was giving a speech about the affected region. this may be all a bit too early to say this will significantly affect him. he did come out and apologize if that is what it. come out like he was laughing on camera. we are also looking at the fact that going forward, there are concerns about the early warning system and how that affects people and that might stick more to the politicians involved. dani: thank you so much. coming up, we will discuss south
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dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. it is 6:30 a.m. in london. i am dani burger. this is "daybreak: europe." freedom day chaos. england's graphs social distancing rules despite soaring virus cases. johnson forced to u-turn and self-isolate after being exposed covid-19. pandemic concerns drive the markets. global stocks decline and
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treasury yields drop for a fourth consecutive day. opec-plus seals the deal. they agree to inject more crude into the economy, overcoming a split between saudi arabia and the uae. as oil is falling, looking at the rest of markets, starting to show a strong risk aversion this morning. it's clear in the bond market, usually the asian session is greeted by bond selling after bond buying in the u.s. session and that is not the case this morning. we are seeing 10 year and 30 year dropped to their lowest this year. that is below 1.28% on the 10 year and 1.9% on 30 year. oil lower as we see a stronger dollar this morning after an opec bus agreement. over to equity, we see those stocks lower, the msci asia-pacific down, 1.2% is about what we are seeing. the futures market indicating a
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weaker open both when it comes to the europe and u.s. session. when you look at the u.s. equity picture, small caps are taking it on the chin. the russell 2000 leading losses, pointing to cyclical concerns, virus case concerns plaguing the market as we head to a fed blackout. let's turn to south africa, where the criminal case against the former president, jacob zuma , and a french aerospace company, set to resume in coming hours. tensions around the trial triggered the worst violence and looting in the country since the end of apartheid, scarring the economy with the rand slumping to a four-month low pewter joining us -- four-month low. joining us is our guest. thank you for joining us. how does the situation look at the moment? how would you describe it in terms of where the unrest has been and what it looks right
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now? >> thank you. right now it is tense but quiet on the ground. we have seen extraordinary scenes of unrest, mostly last weekend, saturday and sunday, spelling -- spilling into monday and tuesday. security report this morning was it was quiet over the weekend. dani: what about nedbank? how many branches have you had to shut and have a reopened? mike: to give you a sense, the violence was very concentrated in certain areas. we have about 600 branches throughout south africa and we had 50 of those damaged during the violence. we have about 4200 atm's and
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about 300 were damaged. somewhere between 7% and 9% of our infrastructure had some form of damage. for most of last week, we closed our branches in certain areas to ensure the safety of staff. we expect them to begin reopening this week. dani: if that is the employee picture, i'm wondering what that for the banking sector in south africa? to start this year, it looked pretty strong. is this a significant setback for south african banks? mike: i think it is a significant setback for our country and a reflection of the economic environment of the country. what will be absolutely important is how quick the we are able to ensure law and order is restored, to ensure those spots of see justice, and in so
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doing, reset the foundations for the investment case for our country. if we look at banks, or bank stop -- stock is up about 30%, but it was down 5% in the course of the last week. dani: do you think this is a significant hit to confidence in 19 stocks -- banking stocks and investment in south africa that could be longer lasting or is this a temporary blip? mike: that is the key question. if you look at how markets reacted last week, markets digested it more as a temporary blip. we sell weakening of the rand and bond markets early in the week last week, those markets came back toward the end of the week and finished the week stronger than where they started the week. investors are looking through this and saying they do believe
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it is temporary, but what is key is how quickly government can move to restore law and order, because they were far too slow at the start of the crisis. dani: is that what needs to be prioritized from government and business? what are the key things that need to be focused in on? mike: in the short-term, it is law and order and security. it is the key to reopening transport groups that are in turn the key to getting much needed food and medical supplies to the most impacted areas. dani: ok. in terms of that, how long do you foresee it to get infrastructure back up and running? the ports have been hard-hit, that was an issue. do you foresee that to come online quickly? mike: infrastructure will come online at different periods at a
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time, what is that infrastructure comes back online quickly and that has already started to happen. a key corridor is now open again, and that does enable a huge amount of goods transported. ports are beginning to reopen, but some of the infrastructure -- for example, logistics warehouses, etc. -- those will take a lot longer to be reconstructed and a lot will be dependent on the timing of various insurance payouts. dani: we did talk a little bit about some of what the government needs to perhaps on the fiscal, but what about the monetary side? does there need to be support from the central bank even the unrest and economic damage? mike: i would have thought not, we already have what we would call a supportive monetary
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environment with 350 basis points cut during last year, for our lending rates in south africa to be at multi-year lows. i would expect the reserve bank would look through this, and as we said earlier, an extra ordinary period, but a temporary challenge and not one that should influence monetary policy. dani: mike, thank you so much, great to catch up with you. let's get over to the first word news with annabelle. hi. annabelle: england is sweeping away pandemic restrictions from today despite some of the highest coronavirus case numbers in the world, with more than 47,000 eccentric people testing positive yesterday. the reopening dubbed freedom day by the government has been overshadowed by a row over which ministers should self-isolate after coming in contact with a
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positive case. >> we looked at us taking part of the scheme, but it is far more important that everybody sticks to the same rules him and that's why i will be self-isolating until the 26th of july, monday. annabelle: zoom has agreed to buy its first ever license acquisition. it aims to boost their videoconferencing app against stiffening competition. it is slated to close in the first half of 2022, after shareholder approval. ps mc founder has warned that the semiconductor supply could push up cost and still fail to achieve self-sufficiency. he says it free-trade remains the best system to fill global
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demand. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: annabelle, thank you. coming, opec and allies agree to a packed that clears the way for the group to pump more oil as local economies revived from pandemic lockdowns. we speak with our guest, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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inflation figures coming in hotter, why do we see the u.s. 10 year yield at 1.27%? we were talking to martin malone this morning, he said the some shocks are driving this concern about the economic outlook. we are also entering a fed lockout period amid their next fomc meeting. the potential volatility without a jay powell to continue to communicate a more dovish message ways on markets. looking at a 30 year yield at 1.5 -- 1.9%. let's get over to opec and the oil markets. opec and allies have agreed to pump an extra 400,000 barrels per day starting from august, ramping up output by about 2 million barrels per day in total by the end of the year. it is a move that could ease pressure on the global economy after pandemic lockdowns. for more, we are joined by a
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head of research. thank you for joining us. for an agreement on hand, is the bullish case for oil changed at all? >> not at all, there were two things going on. yes, there will be more production, 400,000 barrels per day from august onward, the worry for the market over the last two weeks -- incorrectly i would argue -- the media headlines, this is about cohesion, opec is falling apart and that is not the case. we have said before there will be disagreements between key members but they come together to show they are very much in control. that is the key over here. also, we are now, we have a clear roadmap to how opec production will come back, and now all the way through the end of next year. we are going to get 5.8 million
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barrels suddenly available to the market in 2022. i think this is actually from the broader scheme of things, a bullish deal. dani: before this a deal when we talked, you said it was possible for oil to move above $80 per barrel this summer. is that still a possibility? >> i would say yes this year. the issue we have with this summer now is we are looking at macro factors, whether it be treasury yields flattening the dollar -- flattening, the dollar. oil is no longer a green light for markets. there are headwinds, also rising delta variant cases. we are looking at renewed lockdowns in asia. the downside to oil prices is limited. upside, it might be capped in the near term but we are headed higher and it is just a question of time. dani: in terms of some of those
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factors that might contribute, how does positioning look for you? i know cfc data remaining basically where it was when oil was $67 per barrel. >> i think even the moves we saw last week, a lot of long positions have come out. we definitely know people who have been -- out. there have also been people who have gone short, fearing the opec move. i wonder if we have to start covering this week after the opec meeting. we could see some significant volatility, especially among -- because they have been shorting oil as well. dani: more volatility, just in the short term or do you can see it continuing out as well? >> short-term are now, but i will say we actually don't think opec has 5.8 million barrels to
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give predicament we think it is more like 2.5. capacity is very limited. there just hasn't been enough investments. back half of next year, we are expecting far more volatility because we just will not have enough -- imagine if nigeria or libya is pulled off-line as well. dani: if spare capacity is an issue, demand could be an issue as well with the delta variant. could demand come down enough that spare capacity is not an issue anymore? or even if that side it's dented a little bit -- gets dented a little bit. >> for some people, it might not be as bullish as they were expecting, i am talking about demand. but demand is growing. in the u.k., things are reopening and i am sure there will be some restrictions in the winter around the world, i don't think we can get away from that.
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but vaccination rates are rising everywhere and we are seeing the link between case counts and hospitalizations break down, which is what you would expect. i think people are quite desperate to get out and about demand -- and about. demand will rise. we think by the middle of next year, demand will be higher than 2019 levels. dani: we started by discussing what might be concentration on the tensions, the political tensions, navy overblown. -- maybe overblown. i know you also think a concentration on baseline changes is ill placed as well. why is that? >> because baselines are not the same as quarters. i'm not saying opec makes it easy for any of us, this is important. baselines are political. it is about seasonally the ability to produce for a lot of these countries.
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quarters are what countries are actually allowed his. the deal is -- allowed to produce. the deal is, producing $400,000 -- 400,000 barrels per day from august through next year. it is about 400,000 all the way through september. if iran comes back or demand increases significantly, they have given themselves three months to pause or cut production. that's why the deal extends all the way through the end of next year. dani: really great to get your thoughts on this. thank you so much for joining us today. coming up, the summer lull in markets may be ending up to be a no-show. covid fears and inflation debate are keeping price action anything but quiet. we will get back to the markets the on oil. -- beyond oil. this is bloomberg.
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>> days are set for next year, so we are looking for together, with all stakeholders, we are sure to make good progress. >> i strongly believe it is quite significant to hold of olympic and paralympic games, it will become the light of hope for everyone in the world. >> all of the measures we are undertaking are satisfactory and will ensure a safe and secure games, whether there is an emergency or not. >> i outlined infection controls to ensure a safe and secure environment for the tokyo games. i received strong support from
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all g7 leaders. we need to step up virus prevention measures. i will be issuing a state of emergency and tokyo. >> there were many factors, such as a strain on medical services as well as winning the public understanding for holding the games. that's how we arrived at the difficult decision to partially band spectators at the games. >> we are preparing whatever the circumstances are, and the games. dani: the tokyo olympics begin this week, and that is amid ongoing concerns about the pandemic. those concerns also to some degree driving markets today with a dour mood. let's get into that with mark cranfield. thank you for joining us. how orderly does the selloff looked to be this morning? is it clear what is driving sentiment? mark: a few things coming
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together, it did not help wall street was weak last friday, that started things off. we have a number of issues related to china, concerns about the major tech companies, we have seen heavy -- in the egg tech stocks listed in hong kong today. we've also seen concerns about china ever grand, which people have been watching closely. equities and bonds have not been too good. it was a company that looks as though somehow it found some friendship the authorities in beijing, but they have since asked them to clear things up quickly. we just had a report today on bloomberg saying the banking in china itself has frozen one of its importance accounts, and that has spooked investors and the share price down more than 1% at one stage today, and bond
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prices falling as well. wherever you look related to major companies in china, there are things for people to worry about. that has been a theme today. and generally, virus cases rising worldwide, and people have plenty of regions to be cautious on risk assets. dani: evergrande stock at about 12%. at one point does that move from being an idiosyncratic company specific story to affecting the wider risk off sentiment? i know you got into it a little bit, but to what degree could that be driving wider moves? mark: this is a big enough company to worry people on a wider scale. a bit of a feeling amongst investors a few months ago that big companies in china, if they got into trouble, somehow the authorities in china would get behind them and find a way to
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sort out the mess. that is being questioned now. we are seeing an asset management company and evergrand having issues. it is not as clear that it is too big to fail. they are big enough companies that it could really spook people for a broader selloff across markets, so they are watching it closely. what happens over the next few weeks certainly could perform badly for the whole of asia. dani: if i can get you to thread some of these cross trends together. growth concerns are apparent in china, and it comes at the same time as we have an opec-plus deal. the demand coming from the economy, how much is that contribute into a dour mood despite that opec-plus set to increase production? mark: yeah, i think that has
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