>> as long as inflation demand is contained overseas, it will remain low. >> it has really defined what transitory is. it could last for a while longer. >> as we get the unemployment rate back down to where it was -- >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am jonathan ferro. lisa is back with us next monday. thomas back this morning. -- tom is back this morning. tom: i am going to focus on the bond market. the equity market gives us joy.

21.89. the 10 year yield, it continues ever lower this morning. jonathan: where does it leave the fed? tom: i have not thought much about it. it leaves them ever more dovish. the ecb is the same way. the market is doing for jerome powell all the heavy lifting. jonathan: ecb, coverage right here on tv and radio here at bloomberg. i thought it was interesting to see reporting of a delay to the return to the office. how do policymakers react? what is the reaction from consumers? tom: i do not know if they will wear masks on blue origin today.

i thought the federal judge decision on indiana university -- this should have been at the top at every newspaper -- this is a federal judge that told graduates, get vaccinated or don't show up. jonathan: 830 eastern on radio and tv. what are you looking forward to as we get mr. bezos alongside his brother, 82-year-old, not a teenager going to space. tom: the author of space was so angry that everybody thought this was a lark. anytime you put anybody on top of liquid nitrogen and liquid

hydrogen, bad things can happen. what is needed is the safe return of these four individuals. jonathan: you are taking this a lot more seriously. tom: i can bore everybody with a history of this, but what is needed is to understand that this is physics, science, and there is some real danger involved. these are all people -- there is risk starting at 8:30 a.m. jonathan: can we talk about the 82-year-old? that is the most awesome story. kailey: i am not sure if i would be willing to go to space at 82 years old, but for her, it has been a very long time coming. when blue origin made this

announcement that she would be going, i felt a sense of pride for her. the age differential, 18 years old and you are already going up into space. i am not sure how your life can get any letter than that. jonathan: a few stories out there in the mix. full coverage on tv, radio, and bloombergquint take as well. -- bloomberg quicktake as well. the nasdaq, 0.35%. the nasdaq did not sit it out. the nasdaq participated in the downward move. yields still having lower. we are down about two basis points. euro-dollar stable. kailey: indeed, and i wonder how much the economic data is going to matter to this market given

all of the delta variant concerns that are out there. housing starts and building permits for june today. we did see homebuilder confidence lower. we will see if that starts to weigh on residential construction. at 8:30 a.m., our special coverage of the actual launch. it will happen at 9:00 eastern. the first manned mission for blue origin and jeff bezos will be going up. also after the bell, we get netflix second-quarter results. it will always be about the subscribers. it is going to be about the forward view when netflix reports. jonathan: looking forward to that. joining us is our next guest. what a couple of months we have

had. we have to start with the 10-year risk. what does 116 say to you? marvin: it is not only the 116. we are retracing a lot of this year's over yield and rise, we have to put in perspective that real yields, pretty much at the lowest it has ever been. that tells me that we not only have growth here but we have questions about what the world looks like once we get through this. you have to remember that before the pandemic, the economy was an incredible solid -- incredibly solid place. tom: what is the reaction among the trust money market? the wall of liquidity is out there. it is clearly a safe haven field to the 10 year yield.

marvin: once the rates were made 20 basis points during the last fed meeting, we saw a wall of money come into it. that will continue. that is a higher yield that you could find elsewhere. they are not pulling back yet. other cash comes in because of the debt ceiling. there is a lot of liquidity out there. it is finding its way into the fed. when it finds its way into the fed -- jonathan: how is jerome powell going to change given the 10 year safe haven? jonathan: so many people say look, these moves, these prices

are un-validated by the data. they have been saying it for months. you have to respect and appreciate what the market is trading on. i am trying to work out what it is trading on. marvin: i'm not surprised by where yields are. the reopening process is not going to be as robust and enthusiastic as people thought. we really need to think about being too aggressive around that. ultimately, whether or not the feds long-term -- is appropriate in a world where if it looks like pre-pandemic with a lot more savings and a lot more government debt. somewhat restrictive of yields being able to move higher.

kailey: do you see a revival for some of that cyclical inflationary trade? marvin: there is still a lot of -- the catalyst for a lot of excitement was the georgia elections, fiscal was going to walk hand-in-hand with monetary. that is certainly in question. we will get a lot more detail this week. the physical response is weaker than we thought back in january -- fiscal response is weaker than what we thought back in january. yesterday, nasdaq was not participating in the downside the rest -- the way the rest of the other indices did. there is a rotation to add to that safe, defensive growth that a lot of large tech companies

provide these days. jonathan: good to catch up. what a couple of days and a couple of months it has been. tom: that is a flatter curve. can you tell the difference in me this morning? i am wearing bill nye. it is a bowtie from bill nye. jonathan: can you speak to the importance of bill? tom: william nye is the one who single-handedly has led science forward. they made jokes about it. he is absolutely precious. what he has done day after day after day explaining the science

is something not to be afraid of. jonathan: have you spoken to him this morning? recently? tom: to be honest, bill was talking about that bill going up into space. jonathan: that would upset the children, tom. equity futures up 19 point. the bond market is going nowhere this morning. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ >> senate majority leader chuck

schumer has launched plans for a cliffhanger vote today. senators in both parties have not agreed on the measures yet. the vote puts pressure on the bipartisan group. the u.s. government telling americans to -- telling americans to avoid traveling to the u.k. the warning came on freedom day when pandemic related extent -- restrictions were lifted. he will take office next week. he defeated the right-wing candidate by a narrow margin. he ran on the slogan "no more

poor people in a rich country." the largest bank in switzerland benefited -- ubs warned it expects a slow down during the third quarter. the bank has pivoted away from -- global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: if we were ever to experience unchecked inflation over the long-term, that would

pose a real challenge for our economy. we are confident it is not what we are seeing today, we remain vigilant about any response that is needed. make clear to the federal reserve and chairman powell that the fed is independent. take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong economic recovery. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. lisa is back with us monday. it was an ugly one for equity futures. 42.73 on the s&p. yields off a session low. we are down a basis point. euro-dollar, 117.94. a little bounce in crude. it has been rough across the

board the last couple of hours. 25% off the highs of april for the airline sector in america. tom: a good all-american growth scare. jonathan: we know what you are doing, don't we? you are comfortable. tom: i am looking for an entry point. jonathan: the 3% gap from all-time highs. tom: it is a mini, mini-correction. in washington, there is only one thing to talk about. it is precarious infrastructure process, infrastructure legislation. annmarie hordern is watching this. define "precarious"?

>> they are trying to get to wednesday to get to this procedural vote to at least get the legislation. this is a bipartisan infrastructure package, to the floor. you have republicans like susan collins of maine and rob portman who has pushed for this infrastructure package, saying the timeline is too tight. they do not have a hard copy of this legislation. that will not bode well for the 10 republican senators you need to get this through the floor. the other side of congress, nancy pelosi will be meeting with her caucus to discuss a multitrillion dollar spending and the first time they will be discussing that since we got a framework and the full spending of that package. they are trying to do this two prong approach to make sure you have the moderates and the progressives on board. that is why it is precarious. tom: i do not get this. senator schumer of new york

wants both bills at the same time. i do not remember that in history books. it seems like you to the first one and then you do the second one. >> that is more for public relations, to be quite frank. you would see the bipartisan package on the senate floor. the multitrillion dollar spending a second. the negotiations behind closed doors, that is moving in tandem. jonathan: we wanted to be reopening the economy and thinking about these long-term policy decisions. all of a sudden, we are thinking about the here and now and a third wave in the u.s. kailey: we heard from dr. anthony fauci yesterday saying that this administration is practically "pleading with people." this administration is trying to take a localized approach.

this is going to be an uphill battle, though. the president was saying that what is happening in this country, there is a small collection of people that are nudgable. even if you give them a couple of benefits, there is a celebrity endorsement, would you take the vaccine -- they are still taking -- they are still saying no. there is a lot that still needs to be done as far as to medication with communities that refuse to get the vaccine. jonathan: do we have an access problem anymore? do we really still have an access problem? kailey: you do not even have to go to a doctor's office or physician. you can go to a local pharmacy. these are more in big metropolitan areas. in the rural places, they are

sending in doctors. they are sending in rvs. there is a problem of people wanting to take up the vaccine. potentially, there was this talk about a third booster that could be needed with the delta variant. israel is doing that. especially with those immune compromised. it will be hard for this administration to get this third booster out. kailey: that comes down to a misinformation problem. marjorie taylor greene getting suspended from twitter for 12 hours because of tweets that were misinformation about covid-19. we heard president biden saying social media platforms are killing people by not monitoring this closer. do you think we will see a more specific concern of action? kailey: president biden walked

back those comments. he said i was not squarely saying facebook is responsible for killing people. i read a report that talked about there are a dozen people responsible for all of the misinformation that you are seeing across social media platforms. the pressure is on for social media platforms to be very engaged when it comes to people putting up fake information regarding the vaccine. there has been a little bit of a tone shift with some partisan politics that play into the vaccine. we do have a representative from florida who got covid even though he said he was fully vaccinated. he is pushing for more of his constituents to take up the vaccine. you also heard from a very conservative talk show host, sean hannity, pleading with fox news viewers. many say this is a partisan, political issue, saying that, do

all of the research and talk to your doctors, but the vaccines work. jonathan: let's catch up a little bit later. talking of this market and reopening, we are back to that. we are talking about reopening stocks. jp morgan saying they are seeing a 50% decline for some of these names. they are pushing back against what we have seen in the past day. tom: to me, it is a distinguish -- the death trend is not there yet and we will have to see if it plays out. i am trying to listen to experts. jonathan: equity market, 4270 on

the s&p, advancing about 20 points. bond yields come back in again by two basis point. tom keene, jonathan ferro, kailey leinz, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city, here's the price action. let's start with the s&p 500. big correction. up 4.3%. we are up 22 this morning. we are up about .5% on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq by a similar amount. we have not seen a high on the russell. small caps -- nothing about this market is dissuading them from saying things are going to get worse. switch up the board.

about 182. just to give you 90 of where we've come from. 174. all the way down to 116 handle. on the yield curve we've gone from pushing 160 to sub 100. let's get to the story of foreign exchange. euro-dollar and the dollar index. it's going to be really interesting to see the pushback we get from ecb president christine lagarde. they've got a new target. it's 2%. that's going to be a big shift. tom: i think it's going to be really different. also look at emerging markets. it's a bit off the radar. emerging market will be a challenge. jonathan: the shanghai comp is giving me nothing this year. that was the international story

that was really meant to deliver. tom: the red sox are giving me nothing in the second half but they won last night. jonathan: you know how it feels then. you feel their pain i'm sure. tom: dr. brammer on some of the international relations at the moment. if you're in arizona and you come out to new mexico and go east into west texas, edward ludlow this morning. i think something has not been discussed with blue origin. within the mercury redstone of alan shepard and then gus grissom before orbit, there was a stunning lack of preflight testing. the legitimate space race in the 60's and 70's and here we've got major major rocket testing before we throw four people into orbit.

how confident is this team of their propellant system? >> they are confident. there are a lot of executives in town last night in the bars and restaurants. they have always maintained that the actual rooster and capsule that are flying today would be tested as a pair twice before. and if those were successful they would send up human beings. they argue it doesn't matter who's in the capsule because it's a fully autonomous program. bezos has done two days of training which has largely involved social media. i'm told they did go into a simulator. they have worked on buckling and unbuckling their harnesses. when instructed, they will unseat themselves, do a somersault, buckle back up and feel five gees of force on the way down. tom: and a little less on the

way up. they are tourists. who decides if there is a problem to take the propellant from the capsule and escape from a rocket if something goes wrong? who makes that decision? >> the program director. the flight director will make that decision. he's the guy who goes through all of the checks. the capsule can't separate from the booster put in much any time and propel itself away to safety. there's no two ways about it. there is inherent risk in any launch. blue origin have only ever done 15 test flights in the company's history. they've done more than 120 on their single falcon nine booster alone. they don't have a lot of data or past precedent for successful

launch. jonathan: this is one of the most divisive stories worldwide this very moment. we have enough problems on planet earth. taking his brother, the wealthy teenager gets the spot on this flight as well. with the exception of maybe an aviation icon, a lot of people are sitting here wondering what is going on. how is jeff bezos navigating these highly critical questions of him. >> i heard there's a petition going around to keep bezos up there. [laughter] one of the questions blue origin and i have been going back and forth on is what is the benefit of this trip to society? vanhorn has not made any sort of direct investment in the town. i asked if there going to offset the carbon for example. they have this massive net emissions goal.

i've spoken to their weakest competitors in the industry and none of them would say this is a frivolous exercise. they think it's very important. basically the view of the private sector is if this mission is successful it just adds momentum behind all the space initiatives. it gives visibility to projects that need more money. the reality is this is just the tip of the iceberg for blue origin's ambition. they are behind schedule on all their other project. they are getting beaten by spacex. they have a lot of catching up to do. this would be a step forward for their business. ground control, back to major tom. tom: thank you. david bowie in vanhorn texas today. how do i come back from that.

the best thing would be to go to ian bremmer. dr. bremmer. that was not cuba and not 80. i've got to go 230 two miles, havana cuba to miami beach as well. your thoughts as you and i study back 60 years on what the biden administration must do of cuba and haiti. >> with cuba but the biden administration is in quite a box. the democrats lost congressional seats in florida on the cuba issue and they are reluctant to be seen as doing anything that could create more opening to the cuban government. even if that turns out to be the best way to ultimately bring down the cuban communist regime. they are looking at providing some vaccines, they are looking at intentionally being able to provide internet directly to the

cuban people. that would be seen as a hostile move as the government. probably the closest to a new lose that -- no lose that biden can order. but there's very little he can do. the sanctions are already there. the economy is in complete disarray. the president of cuba is turning to more conciliatory tactics. also made some changes in small and medium enterprises by lifting some of the regulations there. if you understand that a significant violent crackdown would not work well on the island and could potentially lead to explosive violence on the part of the people. i think biden's role is pretty limited.

tom: tell me about haitian politics in the united states. we are all aware of cuba and florida. how does the domestic realities of haiti fold into the response? >> it's yet another refugee issue. the fact that we have larger numbers of refugees coming into the u.s., let's keep in mind this is the poorest country in the western hemisphere. there is no functioning government right now. the sitting president who the u.s. supported and who biden supported was gunned down overnight in his house by hired mercenaries. his wife in critical condition in hospital, the first lady. and biden's response has not only been we are not sending in troops or peacekeepers but also don't you dare get on boats, we will turn you around. right in our backyard. for those that are criticizing the u.s. is leaving afghanistan,

the country is going to fall apart and its 10,000 miles away, if this is the response to literally write -- literally right in our neighborhood, one cannot expect the u.s. to have a different response when we are talking about the middle east or south asia. jonathan: do you think this administration is giving a free pass? do you think it's treatment is equal to the past it ministration? have we lowered the bar on what is acceptable now? >> it's clearly given an easier ride in terms of journalists almost across the board are much happier with the biden administration than the trump administration. some of that is bias and some of that is the incompetence of president trump. how do you balance those things. i do think if biden were to

start naming some of the public statements that trump made, objectively speaking he would have very different coverage than what we see right now. but also let's keep in mind biden saw no political benefit in referring to the media as the enemy of the people. trump did. and he thought it was useful for him politically. so he wanted the bad coverage. he wanted the fight. because one of the only organizations that has lower approval than the united states in congress is the mainstream media. if you want to pick a fight domestically, that's the fight that trump thought was very useful. i understand the logic behind it. that coverage was quite useful to his strategy. kailey: one area in which the biden administration is not different from the trump administration has been the approach to china. pointing the finger at china for that microsoft hack yesterday.

china's response was you are all ganging up on us. is that true? is it the biden administration and the rest of the world versus china? >> the coalition is coming together. biden is also treated better by allies than trump was because trump worked to antagonize allies. that's a feature not a bug to antagonize allies. i think biden's orientation towards china overall is very similar to that of trump but biden really wants a multilateral approach. you have a joint statement, you have nato the eu, you have the asian allies coming together with the united states saying china is a principal threat in terms of cyberattacks. we focused on russia quite a bit. this is by far -- the u.s. and

almost the entire democratic community saying with got a collective problem with china. there's a lot of backlash and some of that has been xi jinping. some of it has been the reaction to the treatment of the weaker's and as you know the eu china investment deal has been suspended. some of it has been the unwillingness to be transparent over the origins of covid. whether we are looking at the pandemic, at technology, at trade, at domestic politics, hong kong, taiwan, south china sea. even climate. the russians are being more cooperative -- jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪

>> masks have value unquestionably. but they are not going at the

root of the problem. vaccination is. jonathan: will de blasio. morning. i'm jonathan ferro. together this morning with kailey leinz. your equity market of 40 to 70 on the s&p 500. advancing 19 points. we are up .4%. 11689, down a couple of basis points. euro-dollar down by 0.14%. that's a weaker euro. the balance just about holds in crude. tom: the delta variant.

joining us from johns hopkins center for health security. i just looked at the logarithmic death slope of the united states and the united kingdom. the united kingdom vector is not good. could the delta variant reality change the vector of death in america? >> if you look at the country overall, i don't think it will change it that much. it may change the death vector in counties where not many people are vaccinated. what that's going to depend upon is what level of those individuals at highest risk for death have been vaccinated and that number is higher than the general population. if you look at people over 65 nationally, there is going to be

baseline levels of death. tom: percolating is a requirement that the former president donald trump make a public announcement to his constituencies, get vaccinated like i got vaccinated. >> it can only help. one thing that is a success is operation warp speed. all that is something good that happened from his administration. about 15% of the population is

not going to get a vaccine. tom: did you hear that doctor humor? jonathan: i missed that. tom: move the needle? tom: i don't know if that was intended by the doctor. -- jonathan: i don't know if that was intended by the doctor. tom: a little medical humor. jonathan: only 30% of black new yorkers are vaccinated. do we have an access issue? is it an outreach issue? >> it's probably more than outreach in an accent -- accent -- it's probably more of an outreach issue than an access issue. primary care physicians are going around and vaccinating people that want to be vaccinated that haven't gotten around to it could there clearly is a discrepancy that needs to

be part of the next phase of moving those people into the ranks of the vaccinated. jonathan: we always talked about cases last year. do you feel the way these numbers are being reported right now. we are doing it with the correct emphasis. >> i don't feel it's the correct emphasis. cases are prioritized over everything else. that's what you are seeing news out of los angeles county. what i think has to be drilled into the public and the press is that cases are always going to be there because this is a virus that transmits efficiently. for the most part we have done

that in the united states with some notable exceptions like springfield missouri. we are just not going to be threatened -- kailey: to policymakers just get to sit by and allow the economy to proceed as normal and reopen or would you be advocating for more restrictive measures? >> i do think it's important that the health departments in the cdc issued guidance on how to do things safely. i have had this abstinence only approach. as we have cases there will be a cool but -- toolbox that people can use. how to think about certain areas where they might be more

transmission versus less transmission. just like we do for other infectious diseases. i don't think restrictive measures are something we are going to see widespread adoption of nor do i think they are necessary. public health likes to use voluntary measures. this was sort of an aberration which happened during covid-19. jonathan: dr. a mischa delta -- it feels like we are taking a small step backward on several fronts. the path toward reopening and going back to work. that was the next big step. i wonder what happens with the banks here on wall street. it will be interesting to see if they change things.

tom: it's the level of illness from this delta variant and how this plays into back to school. there's other cases like that in process right now. what about the delta valiant? jonathan: i had some money people talk about stay-at-home stocks and reopening stops -- stocks. kailey: it's basically at the same level after what we saw. the conversation has moved from fear about inflation matches back to straight up growth fears and are we going to slow. jonathan: yesterday was ugly. your equity market up 18 points on the s&p. coming up, the big bull on wall

street. looking for 4800 year-end on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> right now we are in constraining -- in that frustrating pain trade. >> it is difficult given the low level of treasury yields. >> if nominal yields remain contained of receipts, you'll see global bond yields remain low. >> we haven't really defined what transitory is, least of all the fed. it could last a while longer and start to impinge on consumer confidence. >> the idea is to get the implement rate back down to where it was just the unemployment rate back down to where it was -- the unemployment rate down to where it was before the pandemic. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a small bounce in the equity market. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together this morning with kailey leinz. lisa off this week. there's a small bounce, but this bond market is still firm.