>> our view is that the economy is likely to continue to be strong, but we are transitioning. >> we have questions about what the world looks like once we get through this. >> starting to see some global mobility trends, which means reopening and pausing a bit. >> some of this will also defer growth into 22, which is exactly what the market needs right now. jonathan: the balance continues. alongside tom keene, im jonathan ferro joined by taylor riggs. we can talk about that a little bit later. equity futures on the s&p up 19th, advancing for 10th --

advancing 0.4%. tom: we spoke with michael purves yesterday. others begin to recalibrate, to take their earnings. the french luxury conglomerate. but there is benjamin laidlaw. i love what he says. it is a healthy pause. what we saw is not a correction. jonathan: 5% more common, averaging three year. history favors buying them. the fundamental outlook is unchanged. let us talk about this bond market. we went from 1.12 to 1.25 this morning. tom: a sigh of relief and may be more clarity on the delta variant. there it was a little bit of pandemic calm in the last 12 to

24 hours. jonathan: let us talk about the delta variant and united airlines. that did not sound like an airline too concerned about the future. kailey: a full recovery of demand by 2023. if you've been traveling, you would think there was a full recovery demand this weekend. we are hearing from companies like united. we will get some others later, really talking about this delta variant. it does not seem to be impacting the bottom line for now. jonathan: let us look through the price action quickly. on equity market, the s&p 500 advancing 17 or 18 points, up 0.4%. bond market yields a higher by two basis points. this range has been on year -- has been on real. 1.2467 right now.

the two day meeting at ecb right now. taylor: let us talk about those yields. you mentioned the 10 year. we are also looking at the 20 year bond auction. we have been following these closely. you can get a 20 year for about $24 billion. nine basis points in two days. it is a rate of change kind of day. this is not a bad word, but it is called the b-word event. it means the bitcoin event. it always comes back to fundamentals. we heard from netflix, from united airlines. it is going to be texas instruments after the bell. analysts really liking the chip sector. how much of the optimism can

carry through into the second quarter. jonathan: what is the sum up of what happened with netflix yesterday? taylor: third-quarter guidance looks light. he really nailed it on the top questions he wanted to ask analysts. amazon buying mgm, why is netflix not making a bid to speed up this process? jonathan: interesting. you are so excited about ted lasso. tom: i am. jonathan: that is appletv, right? tom: about a third of it, a third of it i just don't get. i am on virgin air, not galactic. the guy next to me is laughing. i look over. this is the one time i flew in business class. there i am.

it is little britain. i watch every episode. i need you to translate for me. jonathan: i will do that over the weekend. let us bring in eric friedman. let us start right here and not with ted lasso. isn't it just a little correction or is this a transition into something bigger? eric: we think it is a pause. two reasons. one, we think there is this goal between what we are calling horizon one and horizon two. gradual hope mode -- mobility increases. horizon two is what happens once we are already there, one set reopening has occurred. we do think that the fits and starts that we are seeing in horizon one will have

corrections like this. there's probably nuance here. the bond market is likely pricing horizon two. the internal value of funds likely lower, as well as general productivity and demographics weaker. we think this push i can pull continues, but we are still bullish and sticking with that growth mentality. tom: this is aged -- an extremely sober adult note. we do not see enough of those. when it is a phase transition, how do you know when to make that transition for different portfolio allocation? eric: the biggest thing is three variables. one, the dollar. this will rise above 94 or 94.5 of the ex-white. number two is the 10 year -- the x-y. number two is the 10-year. the final is the viewpoint on

earnings, as mentioned earlier. talking about rate of change. we are in a delicate position in terms of revenue forecast, as was earnings forecast. if we see some deterioration as we get deeper into the season, that would signify we need to come off that growth mindset, that pro risk mindset into more of a neutral positioning. taylor: do you have bond guys saying that stocks are attractive on a relative basis, because a 1.25 on the tenure does not make sense. how are you thinking about relative value? eric: two things. at one, risk premium. it shows the difference between the dividend yield of global equities versus 10 year or even global rates. it is attractive. versus their own history, stocks

are in the top quartile of expenses. we think there value for the 10 year is around 1.60-1.61. we do not have to get there immediately. a gradual retracing. suggest stocks have a little more value. you have to look at them on an absolute basis, relative value standpoint. relative value favors equities and fixed income. jonathan: a monster sized, price incentive by a. how do we come up with that? eric: you have general speculations making bets on where 10 years ago. you have hedgers in terms of mortgage, as well as pension buyers. you have the drumbeat of fed participation. you have to have an edge on speculators, but if you look at

the mortgage market and what is happening with respect to pension funds, those liabilities are getting more expensive. that is almost like the short gamma position continues to grow. we think that position is cleaned up and virtually retraced up to that 1.60 level more likely, but it will happen on a gradual aces. -- basis. jonathan: we've got to leave it there. only wednesday. the former oecd chief economist , catherine man, endorsed by the treasury committee for the post at the bank of england. tom: this is a huge deal for prime minister johnson this brings to him the authoritative trade voice on trade deficit and trade surplus. she is absolutely definitive. catherine mann out of m.i.t.

her book 20 or 30 years ago, is a trade deficit sustainable? , was required reading. this is an inspired choice by the u.k. jonathan: on central-bank appointments, let us talk about the federal reserve. pushing the story forward with the following headline -- chairman powell and joyce support for reappointment, but he is not a lark. " biden's selection is likely to be the choice between keeping the current chief or replacing him with one of its well regarded colleagues, governor brainard." just a bit of a push forward on that story from the wall street journal. tom: a well-written calendar

item. it is the third week of july. not so much after labor day, but let us go into october. jonathan: chairman powell in february. taylor, what is your take? taylor: i am always interested to see what they say about the taper. there has been a lot of commentary. if they'd start to taper back some of the mortgages first, if they do an equal way. in 2013, noticed that the way they were tapering. when we think about a tapering federal reserve, that comes to mind. jonathan: that next meeting is coming up next week. coming up, drew mathis. futures up 16 on the s&p. tom: this market is on liquid oxygen. jonathan: this is bloomberg.

>> chuck schumer is on track to fail in his attempt to start debate on an unfinished, bipartisan infrastructure bill today. republicans say there isn't no way a deal will be reached in time. they will not open debate. he toddled trump l.a. tom barrack remains in jail in los angeles after being arrested on illegal lobbying charges. the founder of coney capital and two others are accused of advancing the interests of the united arab emirates in the u.s.. also accused of obstruction of justice and making false statements to federal agents. barrack's lawyer says he is not guilty.

widespread flooding in central china has caused 100,000 people to evacuate the city known as the world's biggest producer of iphones. the city has received 18 inches of rain, equivalent to the city's average annual rainfall. the milwaukee bucks have won their first nba title in 50 years. giannis antetokounmpo scored 50 points to lead the box to a win over the phoenix suns in game six. giannis antetokounmpo was named mvp. global news 24 hours a day on-air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

>> we think that those are going

to be temporary. we think those are really connected to coming back from the pandemic. but that main thing is that we are in way better shape than we were a few months ago. jonathan: let's us hope that continues. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro together with taylor riggs. it is only wednesday. tom: it feels like friday. jonathan: 16 points, advancing 0.4%. the bond market, 1.2567. into the fx market, euro-dollar, 1.17. tom: heather boucher.

i beg to disagree with her. she is wrong. things are not better. it is destroyed this morning, all the happy talk, by dan keating and leslie schapiro in the washington post. have the definitive must-read on the unvaccinated. annmarie hordern is in washington and considers the unvaccinated and core politicians paired one of the politicians going to do? >> they are imploring their constituents to go out and get the vaccine. we heard from mitch mcconnell yesterday, who he had polio and was able to survive as a child. he said he can never imagine a time where there would be a disease spreading and that you have the science but could not get people to get vaccinated. you are seeing a lot of politicians that are going out. some that were skeptical that are now saying they are going to get the vaccine. but it is about mentioning those that have been unwilling. how do you convince them? your child -- charles lane

saying in the washington post could you give more money? or do you make it legal. you cannot come to school, you cannot come to the store, go to work if you do not have the vaccine. tom: charles lane is an academic sick conservative aile. the other is donald trump. what do the republicans that you speak to want the former president to do about the unvaccinated? >> i have not heard exactly, but many, i think, would say that the president should use his bully poppet -- pulpit. during this rallies, encouraging people to get vaccinated. the president has gotten that -- the former president has gotten vaccinated. he threw a ton of money at operation warp speed.

many republicans would say that until this administration gives a bit of a nod to the trump administration that president trump would not want to come out and import people to get their shot. tom: from keating and schapiro, nevada hospitalizations are back to january. jonathan: the numbers are not good. they should be better, but i do not want to fall into the trap of narratives. this is not just trump voters. i am stunned to read in the line in the new york times, around 60 % of health-care workers are vaccinated. this is new york. 40% of people who work there are unvaccinated. this is beyond one single group of workers. >> new york is now going to

require vaccinations for those health-care workers. there are areas that have high rates of on vaccinations from people were still unwilling. you're not seeing this spread as widely in laces because there is a large majority that has herd immunity. there was a breakthrough case in congress, an aide close to speaker pelosi -- did not get that close to her, though -- and also the white house. press secretary psaki said the one thing that does reassure them is that these cases, if you are vaccinated, you are likely not going to go to the hospital. that is at least one optimistic thing to think about when you are considering this delta variant, which the cdc says is now 83% is early. july. we just hit the 50% threshold.

if you are vaccinated, it is less of a concern. taylor: i would love to pivot to infrastructure. what is the path to eat 500 or 9 billion dollar infrastructure plan -- a $579 billion in for structure plan? >> at the moment, they do not have the votes to get it over the line. the republicans have been saying, unless we see this legislation in hardcopy, we are not going to vote. senator schumer has said there have been times in the past we've gotten legislation to the floor to debate even though we did not have it in hardcopy. a lot of republicans are saying by early next week, they would be more. we have to wait and see, but that vote will be critical. jonathan: on chairman powell, what is the latest in d.c.? >> i spoke last week with a bernstein. even though you pushed him a few

times, he would not budge on where they are standing guard with the wall street journal is saying is that there is bipartisan support. we heard that yesterday in powell's testimony. many republicans saying, we'll -- we like what you've done, but it is the progressive left there would like the president to take a different approach when thinking about how the fight governorship is made up, especially that fed chair appeared they wanted to look more diverse. that is going to be that position when the president makes his position. jonathan: annmarie hordern, good to catch up. governor brainard has been waiting in the wings for a while to get that top post. tom: over on the regulations aside, looking at mr. coral's position, i do not spend too much time on this. the chairman's selection is political. to an extent, it is checking

boxes. one thing the economics bracket looks at is this idea of putting in people who are not phd- acclaimed monetary theorists. i do not know that i have if you are not. i think that richard clarida certainly fills that box. jonathan: that might be where the administration think they can make the greatest change, in the vice chair spot. mr. clara the has really led the transformation over the federal reserve. tom: and the of it. this is clara the, fort -- clarida, former dean of economics. jonathan: we turn to this equity market. tom: it is a rocket. jonathan: you are not letting that go.

when did you make of it when he thanked his employees and customers? tom: i would have gone with the ron howard baseball cap. i like doing the space launch with a guy with a british accent. jonathan: this is bloomberg.

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on our commitment, forward guidance will be revisited. >> on vain july 22, it will be an even bigger meeting, because it is not only something technical. christina: we are going to communicate directly. >> she was always a voracious reader. she carried two novels on an airplane. at some point, i began to notice that she would read a page and could not remember what she had just read. she had to go back and read it again. >> i do not remember much.

jonathan: live from new york city, the price action this wednesday morning. the s&p advancing 0.4%. on the nasdaq, up. the russell continues, almost one full percentage point. that is the equity market. looking at an average of 3.5% correction on every given year, his take is that here free -- history favors -- get away from the equity market for a moment. did not get a big move on the equity market at the index level, but we got a massive move on the bond market, even in the last 24 hours.

high of the session so far has a 1.25 handle. i want to look at the spread, just to get a set up for our next guest. we have a fantastic guest coming up. that yield curve yesterday was in the low 90's. a big turnaround. this one is hard to get your head around, but the trend is pretty clear. we have been grinding tighter, flatter ever since. tom: we have gone from the precipice of gloom to back to within the range. this is how i put it. jonathan: is it the pendulum? tom: we are on the pendulum of precipice. there we were yesterday. it was played down because of the space launch. i agree. we are back to where we were. we have not broken. i do want to point out that johnson & johnson earnings have

beaten the forecast. but there covid vaccine revenues were up 10%. with vaccine sales, they were up 13%. jonathan: you are the only guy i know that gives commentary on the delivery of the earnings, the presentation and not the numbers. tom: what is important is not the ones that are good, but there are so many where it is in greek. jonathan: who gets it wrong? tom: i think j&j's got some real clarity, but when you see it, you see it. amazon rock it to clarity and transparency in their earning. frances donald joins us. this is a really needed moments,

given the turmoil in the markets. what have you done with your gdp guesstimates? frances: not much. weird already factored in piquant growth, but this delta variant is changing the way we construct forecast, we embedded more uncertainty. i do not know what politicians globally are going to do with reopening. we probably have to factor in more supply chain disruptions. it means that our reopening some globally may be a bit slower. on the one hand, i love that, but a little part of me gets concerned that if this delta variant does mean we can't reach peak velocity. cyclical, changes. maybe we need to dial that back

a bit. tom: we did not go to the moon yesterday. it was just sub-orbital. what is necessary is the opaqueness of our guesstimates of third order and fourth quarter. they have deteriorated, right? frances: yes, but here's the challenge. any type of regime indicator that you look at. we can look at quadrant gross versus inflation indicators. almost everything has told us we are in a regime shift. we are going to see growth decelerate and inflation decelerate. the bulls continue to point out that we are still at very high levels of both. this market is telling us that the second derivative still rules. no matter what your level gdp forecast is, it does not matter to market what your level gdp is -- it matters with the fluctuations are over time. we are looking at deceleration

in houses, autos, large furniture. kent down demand in goods will weigh on us. in 2022, my forecast gets more concerning, a huge pullback in fiscal. we have to look at the forecasting. ultimately, it comes back to the same story -- regime shift, peak macro, bond noted. jonathan: let us start with the economist hat. what is the gdp next year? what are you looking for? frances: somehow, i think i lost your question. jonathan: what is the gdp call for you and the team next year? i think we might have lost her line. frances donald. tom: she has the same line as

tim stenovec yesterday. jonathan: you really are reminiscing. tom: john, i thought you killed it. you are way prepared. jonathan: i feel like this is disingenuous. you had a great night last night with matt miller. tom: we did. that is in from berlin. jonathan: i understand we have reestablished that connection with frances donald. francis, have we got you? frances: we have reestablished connection. jonathan: part one -- gdp call for next year, what is that? frances: i do not even forecast 2022 gdp at this point, because a range of outcomes is incredibly large. what we need to be forecasting is the 10 year yield, the shape

of the curve, and what the infrastructure packages going to look like. this is a key when you are a buy-side financial economist -- how will the deviations change? we've already seen the peak. we will see disappointment. the biggest challenge is what will happen to chinese policy next? that we hit peak macro is not a surprise. anyone who can do year-over-year new this was going to happen. what was a surprise is how tate chinese policy was, how quickly the big pie in the sky fiscal game change, and the delta variant, which creates this uncertainty. that is the game when you are using the economic lens on the buy side. it is not to come up with a point figure estimate. it is to get a sense of what those major drivers are going to be, where the inflection points are going to be. concern i have is we hit peak macro. now is the deceleration going to be sharper than expected? i think, yes.

anyone who does put together point forecast for gdp is probably going to have to start marking them down. that is uncomfortable. jonathan: do you think we are seeing a peak for the cycle on a 10 year treasury yield. 1.74 at the end of march. right now, we are at 1.24. frances: there actually is happy talk here. if you are a long-term investor, you saw a bond market that means you can actually be more bullish in a long-term perspective. that is my optimistic spin. this is good if you are trying to develop a balanced return profile over a long period of time. the problem is that we have not been in a game changing super cycle. we did not see -- this is a bigger story than a lot of people paid attention to -- two

as disappointing us. we have seen tighter policy from china. i am not sure we are going to reach a safe velocity. if we had seen sizable fiscal across the world, then i would be very happy saying, we are going back to 2% and above. we did not see the game changing macro we hope to see in the middle of covid. taylor: do peak yields mean peak margins? frances: it might. one of the things i try to push is a let us move away from the concept of reflation. inflation is not broken. it is good news. now we are moving into price pressures and isolated areas of high cost. this is why pricing pressures are going to be key components. this is why i think listen to your macro analysts, but credit pickers who will know how to navigate this.

people ask me about why delta is important, it is not necessarily that's the biggest reason is not because i care so much about the reopening. it is a huge problem for supply chain disruptions. if supply chain disruptions persist, dti will still fall, but you're going to have pockets of comfort. we have already seen this in housing and cars. demand is happening right now. that needs to be seen more from the growth perspective. jonathan: thank you. our apologies for that technical disruption. francis donald. we have seen this peak in a 10 year yield. we heard that from others as well. tom: these are nuanced calls. i can say into the q3 and q four mistry, these are nuance calls. have to listen carefully to the dynamic and the why they are

making those calls. i have not on my game today. i have a correction to do. it is great to see someone listening from near cape collateral -- cape canaveral. al from florida makes clear that charles lane was a conservative. the was a brain freeze. charles lane was more of a moderate. jonathan: thank you, tom keene, for the correction. taylor riggs, you are right, the question is margin, margin, margin. listen to the guest. it is remarkable what happens when you do that. up 16 on the s&p. we advanced 0.3%. this is bloomberg. >> first world news.

the coronavirus has taken a dramatic toll on u.s. life expectancy. it dropped due to hundreds of thousands of early deaths. the disproportionate toll on communities of color widened the existing gap between whites and blacks americans. this is all according to the cdc. the u.s. and germany are close to a deal on the controversial ignored stream two pipeline. angela merkel has previously thought that making independent moves over the kremlin over the pipeline. the wave of defections has resumed in the wake of the scandals involving archegos capital. four more senior bankers have left. so far, more than 30 bankers

have left credit suisse. that cost it more than $5 billion. jamie dimon is 65, but it does not look like retirement is in the picture for him. the billionaire was given a gift or persuade him to leave. dimon was awarded 1.5 million stock appreciation rights, which will allow him a profit if the price does rise. global news 24 hours a day on-air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

jonathan: live from new york city. alongside tom keene, i am

jonathan ferro together with taylor riggs. lisa back monday. equity markets. the s&p advancing 15 points euro -- points. the yield down. 1.2433. 25 hours out from an ecb decision and conference with christine lagarde. tom: it is going to be interesting to see on the ecb, what is your initial thoughts? jonathan: euro-dollar. have we seen the highs already? have we seen peak euro strength? dukes is out suggesting maybe we have, may be the strength is behind us and not in front. they were looking for 1.30. tom: you frame out, how do you go down to 1.15.

instead of the geography that you are an expert at, in emergency rooms at the johns hopkins hospital, there's gotta be a certain percentage of people working there who are unvaccinated. there's got to be a certain percentage coming in unvaccinated. what do you do? >> regarding employees, we are vaccinated. we all do show our vaccine status. regarding unvaccinated patients, we have that knowledge on who is vaccinated and who is not. my practice is to be ready if i am unsure of vaccine status or covid status. jonathan: i was surprised to read in the new york times that around 60% of workers in the city's public hospital system

are vaccinated. i would expect that number to be higher. where's our resistance coming from? >> we feel like it is coming from and ciliary services. there are still individuals who, despite working in hospitals, have misconceptions or concerns around the medical system, have vaccine hesitancy, have been victims of misinformation. it is really difficult to prove a counterfactual. that is something we are still struggling with in all sectors of society. jonathan: some are characterizing this as a political party issue. do think that is helpful? >> it is not. it is a global issue that affects every body. until we reduce the amount of virus and get vaccinated, we do not return to normal. taylor: are the vaccines are the

vaccines effective against delta? >> vaccines are effective against delta. it is very common to see individuals who still get sick despite having vaccines here it receives every year with the flu. the pfizer vaccine shows 88% effectiveness two weeks after getting her second dose. that does mean that 12 out of 100 people will still get the illness people -- illness. but they are less likely to show up in the icu and to die. taylor: what is it going to take for schools to 100% reopen in the fall? the markets might believe something is wrong if schools don't reopen, if that is the catalyst aired what will it take to get there? >> we have learned a lot about how to reopen safely. in the spring, my daughter's school opened. they used pods, created pods.

temperature checks. it is a bit strange taking her child's temperature every morning, but i felt perfectly safe that my child was in school with the precautions. tom: bacteriology and microbiology. i do not buy this. we cured ourselves from diphtheria. i was on the back end of polio. anne-marie mentioned senator mcconnell's battle with polio. i do not buy it for a minute that we have not done this before. from viruses, we got vaccinated. what is different this time? >> nothing. vaccine innovation is ahead of the curve. luckily, we had the mrna vaccine studies that were done for cancer drugs, which allowed us to find the vaccine and

implemented rapidly. we also have other innovations. nothing is different. we used our lessons learned and applied them to covid. the challenge is therapeutics. with bacteria, we have antibiotics that affected the ability of the bacteria to reproduce and stop infection. viruses have always been more tricky due to the way that they replicate. tom: how do we incentivize people? people are saying give them money, do this, do this. how do we get this affixed at a joe biden speed? >> there are two groups. there is a hard-core conspiracy theorists. you cannot change them. but the majority of the people are people that has overestimated the side effects. they are lost and have chosen to

do nothing. that is a group that we target. we promote positive messaging around the vaccine. we need to educate people with clear, concise facts about the true risk of vaccination and stop over inflating the few side effects that have been seen in isolated cases in social media. jonathan: do you think of authorization would help push the issue forward? >> yes. for the lay public, the difference between full authorization and emergency use authorization is one of the big sticking points in vaccine confidence paired the truth of the matter is there studies that were conducted were just as rigorous as others. due to the national reporting software from cdc, we have national reporting on vaccine side effects, which is phenomenal.

the use cases in the millions. having that sticky label that says this is emergency authorization will improve confidence. jonathan: thank you. at johns hopkins associate professor of emergency medicine. those issues are always far more complex than some make it out to be. tom: we touched on that with the line of what we have done over 150 years of taking illnesses away. can i just say to our team that is booking all of this that this has been a real joy through 18 months of this natural disaster to speak to multi-degreed adults who note the science and know it cold. jonathan: i cannot wait to startup -- to stop talking to them. they cannot wait to stop talking to us. we are all surprised we are still doing this 18 months out. many of us thought we would have wrapped this up. tom: the article in the

washington post on hospitalizations and deaths is devastating. jonathan: equity market up 15. we advanced 0.3% on the s&p. yields are higher. from new york, this is bloomberg.

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♪ >> we are in moment, peak growth, peak fiscal. i think we still have a ways to go on the cyclical recovery. >> our view is that the economy is likely to continue to be strong, but we are transitioning. >> we have questions about what the world looks like once we get through this. >> starting to see some cooling global mobility trends, which means reopening's are pausing a bit. >> some of this will defer to 2022, which is what the market needs right now. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom