♪ >> we are in moment, peak growth, peak fiscal. i think we still have a ways to go on the cyclical recovery. >> our view is that the economy is likely to continue to be strong, but we are transitioning. >> we have questions about what the world looks like once we get through this. >> starting to see some cooling global mobility trends, which means reopening's are pausing a bit. >> some of this will defer to 2022, which is what the market needs right now. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm

jonathan ferro, together this morning with kailey leinz. lisa will be back next week. you've got morgan stanley's mike wilson who still believes the index level correction is in front of us, not behind us. tom: different opinions out there, that's what makes the market go. i am going to scientifically say we are 2/3 of the way back from the agony of a few days ago. i'm watching the same thing i was watching and preparing for six weeks ago, which is earnings reports. j&j this morning, they up the forecast. jonathan: the outlook for coca-cola better, too. i'm looking at the rates market, looking at treasuries, and witnessing the consensus view totally break down. the last 24 hours was a contested example of that, just capturing the degree of uncertainty that still exists and persists. one point what he 5% this morning on tens -- 1.25% this morning on tens.

the market living its own life. tom: i am going to suggest uncertainty is what drives the market. coca-cola, which i haven't even looked at yet. but all of these individual stories sum up to corporate america adapting to the cards they are dealt. jonathan: verizon doing the same thing as well. tom: in the banner, organic revenue, which is really important, coca-cola, 12% to 14%. the estimate was 11%. that's a better number. jonathan: united joins the party in the past couple of hours. they are part of this, too. taylor: the clarity you are getting from ceos is starkly different from the last quarter and the year before, when they

were pulling forecasts and saying frankly, we don't know. you're seeing a full recovery of demand by 2023. i will repeat my statistic again, it feels like the full recovery is back if you have been flying lately. jonathan: international is not back in a big way. taylor: good point. jonathan:jonathan: here's united's ceo. "we are expecting to be back making a profit once again." aren't you surprised by that level of confidence, given what is happening around us at the moment? taylor: i think they have really good visibility into the pipeline, and they see people booking months out, saying we cannot wait to get back. i hear we have a producer joining us, coming back from hawaii. jonathan: we do. it's ok for some, taking the long vacations. tom: here we are, i've got a day here, you get 12 days there. jonathan: we should have been in vanhorn, texas yesterday. tom: emily did a great job. jonathan: she did a fantastic

job. you don't want to go down there? tom: not really. i don't want to be walking around like tim stenovic. jonathan: does the next one really matter? do we have to cover that? tom: let's stop the show. this is really important. what do they do the next time when they've got 3, 4, 5 people going up, but nobody on board is named bezos? that is an interesting question. jonathan: i imagine we pay less attention. your equity market up 13 on the s&p 500, advancing 0.3%. in the bond market, we've talked so much about this the last couple of months, 1.2433%, still exceptionally low considering some of the data coming in and america. euro-dollar, we will talk a little bit more about europe as the day progresses, negative almost 0.1% on that currency pair. taylor: you mentioned the 10 year yield and the reflationary

trade that has been backup in the last few days. what does that mean for the 20 year bond auction we get today, about $24 billion? the concessions that are needing to take place, and where are we when it comes to inflation? let's see how the 20 year bond auction does go. you want to talk about higher asset prices, tom says bit dog -- says bit dog, back above $30,000. finally, the last thing i'm going to be watching comes back to corporate earnings. it will be texas instruments after the bell after the slew we have already gotten. the ceos give us the forward guidance and the return of that confidence. jonathan: netflix part of that promise, too, in the premarket down 0.7%. i came to you for an inside look at netflix, and you were kind of bang on about the previous

quarter. jonathan: i don't know -- tom: i don't know, it's what it is. i am not too stressed about it. paul sweeney is expert at this. how do five or six or seven streamers play? i still don't get that. jonathan: baron is going with subscription fatigue. tom: i am like, is anybody watching this? no? i cancel it. jonathan: there's too many here now. taylor: i did that last year. jonathan: coming out of the pandemic? taylor: old-fashioned books. jonathan: oh, you were reading during the pandemic. that's original. taylor: i don't think you get five or six streaming services. i think you see further consolidation. jonathan: looking for to that conversation with team moffat nathanson. drew matus joins us now, metlife investment management chief market strategist. what on earth is going on with

the labor market? let's start there first. you think the september period and the subsequent months are quite critical to get a feel of what is going on with this economy. why? drew: taylor was mentioning how important it was to have some visibility into what is going on and how things are working out. august and september are going to tell us a lot about the labor market, and the consumer and the economy as a whole. if schools don't reopen, we are going to have serious problems keeping up the growth rate we have had. on the contrary, if schools do reopen, you are going to almost immediately put one million people back to work who were employed by those schools. on top of that, you're going to remove the childcare story from the equation, and a lot of people have been concerned about childcare and unable to work about how care issues that will be able to return to the workforce. so we will see the supply side of the labor market actually expand rather dramatically potentially in the next couple of months.

if that happens, some of the labor cost stories that people are beginning to worry about should begin to fade, and that should be over a positive. jonathan: tom and i were talking about this earlier this morning, and i think it is really important. if anything develops that threatens return to school in the fall, and september, if that kind of headline starts to drop from state to state, from city to city, what would it mean for this market? drew: i think you have seen the noise around different variants, and those are concerning to people, so yes, i think when you see news like that, people begin to worry and begin to pull back. i've told tom and you this a number of times, which is when there's so many different variables, i don't know how many degrees percent in the segment before me has, but i am going to guess -- degrees the person in the segment before me has come a but i am going to guess it is a lot more than i do. but i am going to mick decisions

based on everything i think i know, so it reaches a point when there are so many things you have no expertise in that you drift into a risk on, risk off mode, and that is what you are seeing in the market. people get overwhelmed with information they can't process, so they go, you know what? risk off. the same thing holds whenever thing is looking great. i don't need to process the information. risk on. taylor: last hour, we kept saying that peak growth may not mean peak margins. do you agree? drew: i am not looking at s&p margins. i'm looking at economy wide margins. i want to know if small businesses are doing ok, hiring people. one of the big things about this recession just so problematic is it didn't have any of the positive effects of a recession. we tend to think of recessions just as big negative beasts, but they clear out a lot of deadwood

in the corporate sector, and that allows the economy to flourish when we come out. that didn't happen this time around. so it is going to be interesting to watch how margins evolve over the next couple of months headquarters -- months and quarters because margin compression typically leads to recession. so we need to be keeping an eye on the idea that maybe what we went through was a recession technically, but maybe didn't have the effects we normally would associate with a recession. jonathan: just a little bit of austrian school coming from drew matus of metlife investment management. drew, good to catch up. always is. your bond market, yields higher by two basis points to 1.24% on tense this morning -- on tens this morning. tom: to me, we are in range on bonds. maybe they need more information. what i need is more earnings reports.

david wilson will give that to us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. i am just loving what i am seeing with earnings, as we saw over the previous two months or so. jonathan: let's talk about something you and i aren't loving right now. have you seen the floods over in china? tom: horrific. this is 200 miles south-southwest of beijing, 200 miles northwest of shanghai. this is the heart and soul of their agriculture district. they are biblical. jonathan: the province of hunan has gone from heatwave to flooding just like that. unbelievable pictures. coming up, daniel morris, bnp paribas investment strategist. for our audience worldwide, on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word

news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. senate majority leader chuck schumer is on track to fail in his attempt to start debate on an unfinished bipartisan infrastructure bill today. republicans say there is no way a deal will be reached in time, and they won't vote to open debate until there is agreement. -- remains in jail in los angeles after being arrested. he's also accused of obstruction of justice and making false statements to federal agents. barrack's lawyers say he is not guilty. according to a survey by workplace firm luckily, only 7% -- only 17% say they want to return to work full-time, but

they want an average of about $7,000 more to go back. the milwaukee bucks have won their first nba title in 50 years. giannis antetokounpo led in game six of the best-of-seven series and was named the most valuable player. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> with our bipartisan infrastructure framework and our bill back better plan, i think

we can turn this great movement into an economic boom for some time to come. i really mean that. i think we are not only getting this out of the hole, but setting us on a pass that is going to generate significant continued economic growth. jonathan: the president of the united states optimistic about the future for the u.s. economy. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together this morning with taylor riggs. the s&p 500 advancing 11 points, 0.26%. yields are higher by two basis points to 1.2433% on tens. the euro a touch weaker, -0.08% on that currency pair. a 60 yet dollars handle -- a $68 handle on wti. tom: right now in washington, emily wilkins with us of

bloomberg government. on a lazy july morning in washington, what kind of new deal is this? how do you and the zeitgeist of washington identify this by the new deal test this biden new deal -- this biden new deal? emily: a lot of people are rushing to compare this with what we saw at the end of the great depression, but i think really the thing we need to focus on now is that we don't have a lot of details on what exactly is going to pass. as we are seeing today with the bipartisan infrastructure bill, there is still a lot of bump in the road to getting this done. this vote that is going to be held later today we already know that it is not going to be able to pass. they are not going to be able to start debate on this bipartisan infrastructure bill. chuck schumer, the senate majority leader, can set up the vote for a few days from now. he can have this vote again when

there is a bill that is closer to being ready. but i think today, you're seeing the fact that schumer wants to get things done. he sees a very tight timeline here. tom: how does the dialogue in the senate affect the house? how do they take his statements in the house? drew: the house definitely pays attention --emily: the house definitely pays attention to what schumer says, the same way that the senate pays them to do what nancy pelosi says, because they will have to be able to cooperate to pass anything. right now, this bipartisan info structure bill is not looking so good in the house. the head of the committee has slammed the bill, saying he is not going to supported because it does not have measures that deal with fossil fuel pollution. you are seeing a number of other lawmakers join him. this bill already has issues enough in the senate right now, with them still trying to come

to negotiations after weeks of trying to get there, and now it looks like it will not be able to pass. jonathan: how much of that is coming from within the president's own party? emily: i think there are lots of concerns that democrats are under a lot of pressure area there's a sense among democratic activists and lawmakers that this is sort of their big opportunity to get something done. they have the house. they technically have the majority in the senate, however slight it might be. and they have the white house. they want to make sure they are getting something done, and they know that you get to 2022, it becomes harder and harder to move legislation the closer you get to november's elections. taylor: economists on this program are looking for a nice handoff from the public sector to a private sector spending package. is there a way to pull in the private sector here? emily: i think republicans

definitely hope there will be. there's been talk about public-private funding in regards to this. but a lot of this money that is going to go out there for roads, bridges, infrastructure, this is something that is going to come down to the state level and the local level and the implement it from there. it takes time for the money to get distributed for these projects to get underway. to a certain extent, it is the federal government that allocates the money and the local government that determines where these projects are going. jonathan: everyone is gearing up to focus on these big picture items, and we just seem to be overwhelmed by events more recently around the delta variant, now the dominant strain , if we can call it a variant. it just seems to be it at the moment. what is the administration doing about it? emily: yesterday, news broke that a white house aide as well as an aide for nancy pelosi have tested positive for the coronavirus variant.

yesterday in congress, you saw lawmakers starting to mask up again, and there's a new sense that there really is an issue with the delta variant on the hill. you can also hear it in republicans, seeing the number two republican in the house yesterday, steve scalise, come out and say he has gotten his first vaccination, encouraging others to get vaccinated. so there's definitely an increased sense in congress and in the white house, talking with fox news over potential concerns about individuals they have had on the show that have been anti-vax, talking with facebook about ways to curb misinformation in regard to vaccinations, and with the delta variant, that is going to add another layer of urgency and what needs to be done. tom: where is president trump and all of this? emily: we've heard president trump come out and say in the past that he does support vaccination, that he does encourage people to get vaccinated. it has not been one of his bigger, bolder, and louder

messages, but he has said it. to a certain point, there is still pressure on all republican leaders, as well as democrat leaders at this point, to do more and to keep with the message that if we really want to get back to fully normal, if we want to make sure that more americans aren't losing their lives to covid, people need to get vaccinated. jonathan: thank you. good to catch up. emily wilkins down in washington, d.c. most people agree with you, the former president did not do enough to push this issue. here's my question, though. even if he came out now and said something, do you think it would make a difference? tom: i think it would make a huge difference to his supporters, but as you mentioned, this is not just about some stereotypical political niche. there's much more complexity going on here, particularly as we see hospital and service vaccinations and some of the big cities. to say it is one cohort is just wrong. jonathan: when it comes to the hesitant amongst us, the

hesitancy holding people back or just blanket anti-factors -- and i've asked -- anti-vaxxers just holding us back, it is different. tom: there's a group that is never going to be vaccinated, and another group that really needs to be sold on it because they are just tentative about science and the fears of these very powerful things. jonathan: we will try and stay on top of it. we will stay on top of the market action, too. on the s&p, we advance eight points. we are drenching zero -- we are advancing 0.2%. 1.24% on tens after having a look at 1.12% yesterday. taylor riggs, what do you make of that turnaround as the session progressed? taylor: i've heard over and over again how this is technical, not talking about shorts being squeezed. that you want to lock in your liabilities now, you go to the

bond market, you get out of the equity market. the further lift higher has some people questioning where we are on that reflationary trade. jonathan: such a good point. your 10 year, 1.24%. i'm jonathan ferro, together with taylor riggs. romaine next on bloomberg.

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♪ jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, here's the price action. we advance once again on the s&p 500 by seven points. the nasdaq does not participate. that's just a little bit softer, -0.2%. we are down on the small caps by 0.6%. the main event over the last couple of months has been the bond market. twos, tens, and 30's look like this. your curve a little bit steeper after the events of the last one he four hours. just -- last 24 hours. just unreal to see the tens go from 1.12% to 1.24%. the 30 year getting back

somewhere into the one-point 90's -- into the .90 -- into the 1.90's. we talk about the highs on the 10 year as 1.7 were present -- 1.74%. what about the highs on euro-dollar? it took place in the first week of 22 anyone -- of 2020 one. ecb takes place tomorrow, that meeting. socgen out with a note highlighted be start contrast between the ecb, the boe, right now. tom: lagarde's major goal here is not to move the arrow. she wants -- the euro. she wants stability. that is a huge deal. jonathan: right now, 1.1775.

we got to say happy birthday to romaine bostick. he took his birthday off, so we didn't get a chance to do that. romaine: thank you, jon. it was a wonderful birthday. next year, maybe we will spend it together 5:00 in the morning. jonathan: i would love to. romaine: it is earnings this week. let's start off with coca-cola. a pretty big eat here -- pretty big beat here. probably the most notable thing, and 25% jump in case volume on those non-sugary beverages. think teas, coffees, some of those waters. those things getting a boost here. j&j getting a boost not only in pharmaceutical sales, but a 63% jump in medical device sales. some of that some of the base effects from the lockdowns we had a year ago. speaking of base effects, netflix. they added about 5.5 million subscribers in the first half of 2021. that would normally be great.

the problem, they added 26 million subscribers in 2020, so the base effects coming off of that lockdown causes some concerns. they are about 2 million subscribers with the street was looking for. there are some stories out there that actually aren't about earnings. keep an eye on apple. interesting story going on in china, in the central part that has been hit hard by floods. this area is also the central area where most iphones are assembled. that city is effectively under lockdown right now because of this lettings. this is at a time when iphone production is supposed to be ramping up -- because of those flooding's. this is at a time when iphone production is supposed to be ramping up. moderna down about 3% in the premarket. this company going to be added to the s&p 500, effective today at the cash open. this is a stock up about 194% already, which would effectively

make it the best performer in the s&p 500 this year by far, but you typically tend to see this with these additions to the s&p, where all of the pop comes off of the announcement, and once it gets added, you see sort of a flatline, maybe even a pullback. finally, ford. interesting announcement, they are going to roll out robo taxis. the robo taxi age is finally here. it is going to start in austin, texas. tom: good luck with that. are you kidding me? what is a robo taxi going to do on fifth avenue? romaine: caused some damage. tom: ok. i'm sorry. i will believe it. when i see it. romaine bostick -- believe it when i see it. romaine bostick on the with a real focus on earnings at the close. jonathan: i guarantee you will be in it. tom: please. this is important. jon and i are in the timeout chair because we don't look at enough at preferreds.

we consider preferreds higher-yielding, maybe not with the equity pop, with collin martin of schwab center. thrilled to have you on on something we ignore. i am going to make an .6% per year off of the 2018 christmas low. i didn't make 29% in the stock market, but with preferreds, i still did better than good, didn't i? collin: you're doing great. i wouldn't expect those returns to be as strong going forward given where prices are today, though. tom: the prices have come up. you still get the coupon though, right? collin: you have to take some risks, and one of those markets is the preferred securities market. you have interest rate risk, you have credit risk, but coupons north of 5% on average. you have to kind of write up the volatility. they are meant to be ash kind of -- kind of ride up the all

agility. preferred securities can be a good way to boost your portfolio. you just have to ride the up and downs. jonathan: would you take rate risk or credit risk? collin: i would think that it risk right now. that has been our stance -- credit risk right now. that has been our stance. but the problem with credit risk is you are not being paid to take that credit risk. we saw a bit of a flare up on monday. obviously with stocks selling off, we saw high-yield credit spreads rise by the most in a single day all year. unfortunately, they are still pretty tight, 3% or so for taking that high-yield risk. we think you can still be in it. we think the low hanging fruit is definitely gone. but if you are willing again, just like preferreds, to ride the up and downs, we think you can be in high-yield. but we are a bit cautious.

jonathan: isn't that the number one issue, with the exception of a couple of weeks in 2020, you could say i don't think i am being compensated for the risk in the credit market? that has been true for much of the last 10 years, hasn't it? collin: in hindsight, we had some opportunities after last march. yields were trickling slower. but leading up to the pandemic, we had this to our three year period in investment grade and high-yield where spreads were just very low which means you can still take that risk, but you really need to be selective. if you just buy the whole market , it is unlikely that you're going to outperform by a lot. but given where we are today, we still think you can own it, you can boost your yield there. but be prepared for volatility. i think the risk right now with the high-yield market or anything with credit risk, the concern is peak growth, peak growth expectations. and if we are not going to get

much more monetary support or fiscal support, the question is what does that do to risk assets and how much more volatile will they be. taylor: the title of your note is if the economy is so strong, why are bond yields falling. answer that question because we can't figure out why the 10-year is stuck at 1.25%. collin: we are scratching our heads sometimes as well. one thing we pointed you in that article was the potential for the fed to get closer to its tapering of its bond purchases. it sounds a little counterintuitive that as the fed slows the pace of its purchases and ultimately stops purchases that yields would fall, but that was the case during qe 1, qe 2, entering the end of the qe period because we are closer to tightening. so we weren't surprised that we saw yields fall. maybe the magnitude of the fall caught us off guard a little bit. i think the good news is that we are back up a little bit off of

that 1.12% low. jonathan: a bit of news coming out of china, hong kong to be more specific. for anyone following the fortunes of ever grand, hsbc, the hong kong unit, and at least two other major lenders have stopped providing mortgages to residential properties in hong kong. the fortunes of that particular developer not great more recently, at least the perception of what is going to happen with that group, given what has happened in the market more recently on the equity side and on the debt side as well. tom: this is not a small item. it goes to commercial and residential development within all of china. what really gets my attention here is the first phrase in our bloomberg coverage, hsbc holdings plc. this is not about china banks, as so we -- china banks, soe's

mopping it up. collin: that is a concern. when you look at a country like china or anything emerging markets, you're going to get less disclosures, less protections, and you are taking risks by investing in really anything touching that. that is always a concern when we are talking about clients and investing in and he emerging-market, really. jonathan: good to catch up. around the world tour with the schwab center financial research director and fixed income strategist. yields just off the session highs about 1.25%, up about 0.1%. tom: i will be fascinated to see which way the equity market breaks. i am going to say it again, it is based off her earnings. to me, that is the elephant in the room. destructive elephant, bad elephant, i don't know which. but to me, earnings are everything. jonathan: almost unchanged now.

we were positive 0.4 percent, and now pretty much up by not even 0.1%. taylor: my key question to some of our guests on "the close," where are we for sweet spots for the equity market? our lower yields hinting at something more nefarious going on? jonathan: in the eye of the the whole of the beholder -- of the beholder, isn't it? there's no narrative, no agreed consensus. that gives you an idea of this inflection point that some people think we are at. the s&p 500 almost unchanged on the day. yields higher on the 10-year to 1.2367%. alongside tom keene, and jonathan ferro, together this morning with -- i'm jonathan ferro, together this morning with taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first --leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans.

the pandemic has taken a toll on life expectancy. it rose the most in seven decades last year due to thousands of early deaths. the pandemic pot is proportionate toll on communities of color widened the existing gaps in life expect and see between white and black americans. that is all according to the cdc. widespread flooding in central china has forced the evacuation of about 100,000 people from a city known as the world's biggest production base for iphones. the city of changzhou received 18 inches of rain from monday afternoon through tuesday. that was equivalent to about eight months of the city's average rainfall. operations have resumed at credit suisse in the wake of scandals involving archegos capital and greensill capital. so far, more than 30 bankers have left credit suisse since the collapse of the two firms that cost it more than $5

billion. brisbane has been selected to host the summer 2032 summer olympics -- the summer 2032 -- the 2032 summer olympics. the process was overhauled in 2019 to prevent bidding wars among cities. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it's not just that we can go back into party mode and hope that this pandemic crisis is

over. i think we will see diverging paths over the next 12 to 20 months. there will be some countries with great recovery rates. there will be others that struggle more. jonathan: that was the julius baer to ceo -- that was the julius baer ceo a little bit earlier. here's your price action this wednesday. equity futures positive five points, advancing a little more than 0.1%, just about holding onto this morning's gains. yields higher to 1.23501 tends -- to 1.2350% on tens. jeff bezos saying the quiet bit out loud yesterday following that launch. "i want to thank everyone on

employee and every amazon -- every amazon employee and every amazon customer because you paid for all of this." heavily criticized about how in some parts of the country, amazon employees are treated. just a touch of self-awareness after the euphoria. tom: there's one part justifying space, that's always been there. part of it is the billionaire debate that is out there right now. where is the billionaire debate six months on if they are not going up into space? i think the jury is out on that. jonathan: i think the interest will be there, tom. tom: and again, we are going to go to orbital. we go from shepherd to glenn. jonathan: what is the difference? tom: the same difference as 1961 , on to three orbits by john glenn to show that we were like you're a good karen and -- like yuri gagarin and the russians.

you've got to get them back onto her safely. it is radically different than sub-orbital. the grade yesterday of those four tourists, if you will, was really remarkable. right now, he is steeled to have courage next week. the secret that david wilson a die have on earnings is the headlines of bloomberg. there's a headline that says it all, coke sees its 2021 consumer prices up 2% to 3% from where they were two years ago. all of these granularity's matter, don't they? dave: they do, and really, a company's ability to raise prices, cover cost increases, that is going to be a theme throughout earnings season. we saw it with ppg industries. they couldn't increase prices. well, certainly in the latest quarter they had issues with it. so when they came out with

second-quarter results, the shares fell. you are seeing coke move higher. we have seen other companies move higher. to the extent that they have enough rising power to be able to offset what is happening when you talk about raw material costs or labor costs or transportation costs. michael purves at tallbacken capital looking to get to 4800 on the s&p 500. tom: you are stealing off of jon ferro. dave: i wouldn't dream of it. i just pared into do what is out there. what jumped at me from his last report is a chart that compares s&p 500 forward earnings, so you are basing it on endless predictions rather than historical numbers, and the change that has happened over the last 12 months, you saw increase on a weekly basis of as much as 40% from a year earlier, in fact, 41%. you didn't see that after the

recession of 2007 into 2009. you haven't seen that for at least three decades, according to our numbers. and the reason, according to purves, is what is happening at the more economically sensitive companies, the cyclicals, if you will. he called it a huge explosion in earnings. that is really what accounts for analysts' greater optimism this time around. he is saying that earnings growth is going to help all the way into next year. since he is looking at 4800, he's got to be considering stocks to be relatively cheap by that yardstick. taylor: we've been surprised as united airlines, coca-cola, j&j, every ceo raising forward guidance. we have the clarity this quarter that we did not have last quarter, a clarity of the rest of the year? dave: we are getting more of that because it looks like companies have more of that. they are getting beyond to some

extent the coronavirus pandemic, or at least they have learned how to live with it, and as a result, they are more inclined to give projections and more optimistic when they do. so you put it altogether and it is working in companies' favor based on the reactions we are seeing to earnings so far. tom: dave wilson, thank you so much. next tuesday, i think we really launch into a wilson extravaganza. i look at where we are. you have given up equities as well, but the vix from a 25 in the sweat down to 19.5. jonathan: it is always about the forward look, though. i went through the coca-cola release, the business environment update. global unit case volume benefited from the ongoing recovery in many markets. then the second part of this paragraph, partially offset by a resurgence of the coronavirus in several markets. for a company like coca-cola, this is about the away from home

channels improving in a way we anticipated. whether we start to go backwards in some markets, that is going to be key. we talked about how policymakers respond to this. we had some reporting from our team on the west coast about apple delaying the return to office. then we need to talk about how consumers start to respond to this as well. the return of masking indoors in l.a. county, what that does to people's enthusiasm to get back out there. going to be very interesting to focus on the mobility data in this country and how things move in the coming months. tom:tom: i listened to mary de blasio yesterday in new york, and estimator de blasio esther day in new york -- mayor de blasio yesterday in new york, and he is saying we are not going there. jonathan: the same from macron in france. for other regions, look at the lack of tolerance in places like australia. we are talking about 40,000, 50,000, 60,000 cases in the u.k., and people are complaining. in australia, 100 cases and they

are shutting down states. get your head around that. still 18 months into this, we have very different approaches region to region, country to country. tom: in the "washington post" article i talked about, the deaths aren't there. the angst they have over unvaccinated is about cases and hospitalizations at this point. jonathan: we have done a really good job of continuing to beat the drum on that, the relationship between cases, deaths, hospitalizations. but when you tune into the mainstream media on any given day, what are they talking about? cases. does that start to hit consumer confidence? tom: it does, and i'm not a fan of that. jonathan: i am not either. futures unchanged, flat now on the s&p 500, 1.23% on tens. yields higher by not even a basis point now. getting interesting is this session grows older. the morning. with tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with taylor

riggs. is lisa coming back monday or not? i keep saying it. tom: she's got to climb up the gantry. she is coming back. jonathan: ok, good. from new york, this is bloomberg. on radio, on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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♪ >> we are in that peak moment. peak growth, peak fiscal. i think we still have a ways to go on the cyclical recovery. >> our view is that the economy is likely to continue to be strong, but we are transitioning. >> we have questions about what the world looks like once we get through this. >> starting to see some cooling global mobility trends, which means reopening is pausing a bit. >> some of this will ultimately differ growth into 2022, which is exactly what the economy needs right now. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene,

jonathan ferroli