>> we have an economy that is going to continue to grow. the largest gains may be behind us. >> almost everything has told us we are in a regime shift. we are going to see growth decelerate and inflation decelerate. >> we are going to see deceleration in growth, that's for sure, but i think the u.s. consumer will stay quite resilient. >> you are going to have a push higher for the remainder of the year. >> you are not going to see deceleration until sometime enter next year. there is still plenty of room for the economy to run. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: we are ending the week with a lift. from new york city, without -- -- for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with taylor riggs. lisa back with us on monday. your market on the s&p advancing 0.5%.

three-day winning streak into friday. we could add some links to it. tom: the 10 year yield, 1.29%. but equities have a mind of their own. i think taylor is better at this than i am. earnings are speaking volumes. jonathan: amex with numbers right now. upside surprise, 10.4 billion revenue. the numbers yesterday afternoon just as good. taylor: unbelievable. k km partners says snap defies gravity, it is a beat and a raise. twitter follows at a slower pace. snap saying it has been set up for a decade-long cycle. jonathan: fast forward to tuesday. apple, microsoft on deck. big tech, big earnings kickoff. tom: bloomberg intelligence walks through the revenue dynamics of microsoft. this is a small company out of washington. they say simply the

fourth-quarter revenue mix, if you will, and above consensus view on that. jonathan: that stock year-to-date has absolutely flown to the moon, up almost 30% , on course for a tense consecutive year of gains. what a turnaround of that company. tom: let's review. i think it is a good point to stop here. the big missed call so far this year has been nasdaq is dead, it's over, it's done. i don't know, when was it, six weeks ago? like a switch, it went off. jonathan: all-time highs coming into the session. the s&p up 21, advancing 0.5%. we will talk about the wrestle in a moment. the small caps with a nice lift over the last couple of days, bouncing back from an ugly few months. outside of that, yields are higher by about a basis point or so. still south of 1.30%.

had a look at 1.30%. into foreign-exchange, euro-dollar, $1.1805. taylor: how much does that fold into some of the morning briefs? starting at 9:45, we push forward to some of the pmi's. last time we had a comprise it -- a composite rating of 60.37. coming off the lows of june 2020, but how much of this is really bringing up those calls of p growth that might be behind us -- of peak growth that might be behind us? at 1:00 p.m., we get the baker hughes rig count. arabica coffee now above two dollars a pound. you look at the oil, little bit of a different story. trying to figure out where we are at $68 a barrel. let's change up the board and go to the tokyo olympics. the mood is pretty sour as you take a look at where we are.

unfortunately, some of this has already kicked off, and there's been a lot of controversy. you really wonder if this year is different. jonathan: he's hundred very upset, didn't he? taylor: sour mood. jonathan: would? you go that far, sour grumpy? -- would you go that far, sour? grumpy? thank you very much. we are at a pivotal point for this pandemic, for the surging cases, for policy and for the outlook, too. let's talk about downgrade risk with stuart kaiser, ubs head of equity derivatives research. i wonder whether we are at that inflection point thinking about next year, maybe bringing things in just a little bit and trimming. what is your take? stuart: good morning. i think the risk here is to some degree downgrade risk, and also we had a lot of very good news priced into the first half of the year. growth was most stronger and earlier -- growth was both

stronger and earlier than people expected. we could ultimately have downgrades in u.s. growth as well. you have a natural slowing in sequential growth. you will not keep growing at 10%. now you could argue you have some headwinds that, at a minimum, put a little risk reward around that number and could lead to some downgrades. you mentioned snap before. i think the u.s. economy was a beat and raise story for a strong couple of time. if you beat and don't raise, investors sometimes don't like that either. jonathan: let's talk about where to park the cash. we got the russell on the one hand. tom pointed out the recent gains in the russell tuesday and wednesday. yesterday, not so pretty. the russell on the one hand, the nasdaq on the other. what would you be sitting in through the year-end? stuart: technically, we are still on the nasdaq side of that camp. at least through earnings, we have viewed small caps for the

last few weeks as you already wanted to be hedging in. i think until we get enough confidence that the global growth hit is not going to be too strong from what we are seeing from the delta variant perspective, i think we stay on the nasdaq side of that. real rates in particular are something we've got an eye on. lower real rates are generally positive for equities, but i think they have to climb so far and so fast that it started to raise the question of why. i think we would like at least some answer to that question before we got too excited about getting back into the cyclical small caps at this point. tom: on derivatives, more on skew, what do they do when there's a lack of breadth? there's minimal breadth in this market. what does that do to the derivative dynamics? stuart: i think it raises the risk of a pullback. people get uncomfortable with the sustainability of the rally. that is definitely going to push

the cost of hedged protection higher. i think there's a number of things at play there. the first is this global growth story. the second is the event risk and the fact that the fed sort of introduced two-sided policy risk to the market last month. in our view, that is going to keep skew elevated and implied volatility elevated, probably more so in that three to six month space. the front is still going to be driven by short-term market performance. tom: so what is the street bet right now come out three to six months? stuart: i think the street bet three to six months out is cautiously optimistic, or trust but verify. what i think you are seeing is a positive move generally speaking in equity markets. but volatility is skewing high, and that tells you people are willing to own it, but they want to verify that these risks are not going to come home to roost. that is why you are seeing that skew stay high, in my opinion. taylor: are we hedging?

where? stuart: right now, given the signals we are seeing from the bond market, it is prudent to have some hedging on. we have been pointing people towards small-cap u.s. equity because we thought that was a part of the market that was most vulnerable. it has gotten a little expensive to hedge their, so you could just make the argument to hedge in s&p and not get too cute with it, but you are hedging in the equity markets, and we think small-cap is the best place to go based on its exposures, so probably small-cap or s&p's where you are doing that. we are seeing people keep that relatively short dated because that hedge of protection is so expensive, they have been forced to keep it fairly tactical. taylor: can you hedge to the 10 year at 1.28%? stuart: that is a huge question because the correlation between bonds and equities is sort about a transition point. i think a lot of investors are asking, are bonds actually a hedge to a portfolio? if not, that means you have to hedge equities within equities,

and the natural implication is that pushes the cost of hedging and skew higher. so it is sort of a circle you get caught in, a negative feedback loop. but we will see how it goes. tom: that is a great friday conversation. i have never observed this. does anyone hedge the dow jones industrial average? jonathan: i am not sure. is anyone allocated to the dow jones industrial average? tom and diane this continual debate we have over who is allocated to the dow and whether we should even talk about that index even more. [laughter] stuart: i am going to plead the fifth on that one. i haven't seen the dow hedge go up in quite some time. but if it matters for main street, it matters for me. tom: there we go. jonathan: let me put you on the spot. do you have a dow forecast at ubs? does one exist? stuart: higher? [laughter] no, we do not have a formal dow forecast, i'm sorry to say. jonathan: i am not going to let this go. stuart kaiser of ubs, head of equity derivatives research, thank you. jonathan: tom, you know i'm with

you. it sets the view of the country. but -- it sets the mood of the country. but it is my view that it shouldn't. tom: what does taylor riggs think about a show where we can make jokes about skew and kurtosis? i don't think they make that joke on that show. jonathan: i think you probably do. taylor: more skew and kurtosis. jonathan: are you getting pushback? it sounds like taylor riggs is getting pushback, tom. tom: always pushback from taylor riggs. but these are really important things for the pros because what they are doing is hedging and bringing in premium money to make their trades more cash effective, where they don't put a lot of cash out. that's the way the game is played. jonathan: let's make the moment we are in a simple as we can. rochelle walensky, the cdc director, came out yesterday and said we are in another pivotal moment in this pandemic. i would go one step further to say for policy in the outlook,

we touched on with stuart kaiser , after seeing this huge upgrade, this flurry of upgrades through q1, are we at this moment were we start thinking about, show me the money, show me the data? waiting for this moment, the q4 at the end of the year when the ui expires. that is when you can really start to shape your view. tom: that is the belief of michael purves. he's enthusiastic about q4, which is how he gets to s&p 4800. jonathan: we will have that debate with sam stovall of cfra, the chief investment strategist. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with taylor riggs. your s&p 500 up 20. we advance 0.5%. in the bond market, just south of 1.30% at on .2837% -- at 1.28 37%. this is bloomberg. ♪

laura: a bipartisan group of u.s. senators is closing in on a 570 $9 billion infrastructure deal. they agreed to pay for it in part by delaying a costly trump era medicare regulation. details won't be announced until at least monday, and any deal could face opposition from democrats in both houses of congress. the head of the cdc says the u.s. is at another pivotal moment in the pandemic. rochelle walensky says covid cases are once again climbing, and some hospitals are filling up. the government says that by the second week of august, the number of cases may be up 39% from last week. a new survey says the fed will start scaling back asset purchases next year, and policy makers are likely to put an emphasis on mortgage backed securities. according to a survey, most expect chairman jerome powell will be nominated for a second term. carlyle group is seeking to

raise as much as $27 billion for its latest flagship fund. that would be the industry path are just ever private equity call. carlyle is a discussion with investors about the size of the fund. it is likely to include a strategy for growth funds. the only big games formally get underweight -- the elephant games formally get under -- the olympic games formally get underway today. covid has been the biggest challenge for the event, but not the only one. it has been marred by everything from a scrapped stadium designed to a bribery probe. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: we are in a position where the united states invested more money in research end of element three or four

decades ago then any nation in the world. now we are number eight. competition in the 21st century. that's what is at stake. jonathan: the president of the united states. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with taylor riggs. lisa coming back to work i understand on monday. tom: rumor has it. jonathan: this is the price action this friday. your equity market with a lift once again, a three-day winning streak into friday, advancing 0.4%. outside of that, yields a little higher on the 10-year to 1.2847%. up about a basis point on the day. get to a stock to have a look at, didi. getting crushed, down 10.39%. coming into friday, down 26% from its ipo price. just pretty ugly out there. tom: from the peak, i think it is a 35% move.

i wonder what the ramifications are less for the chinese, but much more for the american banks that afforded all of this. jonathan: the questions are as follows. what did they know, what were they told, and what did they not disclosed to investors ahead of this ipo? tom: one thing i would note on the equity markets, the vix gives me a 16.98. that is a big deal in this bull market. jonathan: especially from where we were. tom: north of 20. we come in nine big figures off of the growth scare. jonathan: i remember it. i remember you calling at the end of the growth scare. are we done? tom: i missed my window of opportunity to get into the market. jonathan: those corporations and c-suite's seem pretty up to mystic about the year ahead of us. tom: they do -- pretty optimistic about the year ahead of us. they do. with us now, mario parker, white house reporter. what is the mood at the biden

white house? i think the market was riveted by the mood of the white house. what is the weekend mood of the biden white house? mario: it is when i would characterize as cautiously optimistic. president biden has publicly said he feels good about getting his infrastructure package across the finish line, even after a minor setback earlier this week. behind the scenes, just as confident as well. so there's a caveat that anything can happen in washington. the coalition is tenuous. but the mood is overall cautiously optimistic that they will get his big legislative package across the finish line. tom: what is the style here? i recall president obama quaffing a beer on a hot summer day out on the lawn. that is a quality beverage from

western new york. it is not like the beer that made milwaukee famous. but what is the method here for the biden administration? is it that senator biden has a certain reporter, or is there a different approach? mario: you summed it up perfectly with senator biden. we have to remember he's been in washington for the better part of four decades now. he feels very confident about his ability to reach across the aisle. they have tried to really take the temperature down. whether or not they have been successful in doing so is another question, but the aim has been to take the temperature down from what we have seen over the last five or so years in terms of partisanship and try to at least have a public tone of some kind of cooperation and collegiality. it seems again that this strategy may be working if we are to look at what is happening with this info structure package. jonathan: mario is a chicago guy, tom.

that's miller lite. miller lite is the beer of chicago. have you forgotten that, tom? tom: it's the champagne of bottled beers. jonathan: that's right. [laughter] mario, i know you are a white sox fan. we will get to baseball little bit later. let's look ahead to the next couple of weeks. i was told as it was about days, not weeks, not months, and it has been weeks and months. how significant is next week for you? mario: next week is huge. you've got both we publicans and democrats saying something needs to get done towards the beginning of the week. the setback this week revolved around republicans walking around voting for a bill they hadn't seen the text for. mitt romney said they are looking at maybe monday, possibly tuesday or wednesday for that to come. as you mentioned, the clock is ticking. we have the vaunted august reset coming up here in the next few weeks, so congress has to get something done.

on the other set of that recess, the clock starts ticking towards midterms, when the political risk is elevated. jonathan: are you still -- taylor: are you still thinking the two pathway is still the way forward? mario: president biden has endorsed both tracks. for the reconciliation path, the democrats seem to have everybody on board. they have a slim edge with vice president kamala harris holding the deciding vote, so he has to give the progressives in line, the moderates in line as well within his own party. that is where it becomes more of a tight work for the president. tom: it is part of the beltway, the president talking about the former governor of virginia terry mcauliffe, who is making another run at it. does the president enjoy going

out and campaigning? tom: it is in his wheelhouse. later today he will be going to arlington to campaign for mcauliffe. this is more in the president's wheelhouse. as we mentioned, he's been in washington for a long time. he's been a senator for a long time. when we are out in the pool with him, he takes a very long time after his speech to do a lot of gladhanding, to do the rope lines, taking selfies with people. that is really where his comfort spot is. jonathan: before you go, we won't talk about red sox-yankees. let's talk about white sox. are they getting it done? mario: i think so, jonathan. i'm pleased with the way anderson has been swinging his bat as well, so i'm pulling for those guys on the south side of chicago. jonathan: there were go. bloomberg's mario parker outside of the white house, good to see you. tom, do you want to talk about red sox-yankees, or move past that? tom: white sox baseball, opening

day, i believe 1965, the great nellie fox. i was there at comiskey park. it was the one park that felt like an old stadium. i didn't see many of the others. but i'm sure there is an english equivalent. it was a magisterial thing from the 1930's. jonathan: i thing it is sad that some of those old stadiums are going. tom: like the toronto blue jays are playing in buffalo right now, and i'm sorry, the old stadium in buffalo where they filmed "the natural" with robert redford, there's something about those old stadiums. jonathan: west ham fans are not happy about the new stadium they are in. liverpool holding onto enfield. i think that is what the fans want more of. they like it. tom: richmond looks a lot like what they did with crystal palace. jonathan: i look over to that. tom: if you watched season one,

you would have a better understanding. jonathan: i promised you i would. the s&p advancing 0.4%. a three-day winning streak and friday. we could add to that and make it four. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city, here's the price session this friday morning. three-day winning streak into friday. we can add some weight to this s&p 500. we are doing that right now, advancing 17 points, up 0.4%. nice run on the nasdaq as well. the nasdaq 100 back to an all-time high. we could have a look at an all-time high, a record on the s&p 500, around the open if we keep this up as well. advancing 0.4%. the rustle up by 0.6%. the debate right now, we are at a little bit of an inflection point going into the back end of this year. waiting for that data around the september-october period, when the additional ui expires, and back to school is set to take place. will it take place? that is what i mean by this

pivotal moment. so where do you want to be right now, the nasdaq or the russell? stuart kaiser of ubs is going with the nasdaq into that one. speaking of the unknown, i think this is a perfect way of capturing it. 29.03 -- 2903 at the close last week. all on no data, no speak, just the market. that just speaks to the uncertainty in this market right now. if you can have a range that wide with no real catalyst, that tells me a lot. tom: let's admit, we had a growth scare. jonathan: do you think we are still in one? tom: no. jonathan: what triggered the growth scare outside of the price move itself? tom: on a global basis, there was a legitimate normal fear of a growth scare, and once again, buy the dip won out.

i'm not smart enough to give you the y on that. s, the earnings are visible and all of that, but it was sort of like a cosmic thing. we cover that in cfa level four . jonathan: i'm going to leave that there. switch up the board and get to foreign exchange. we are going to have a nice conversation with a man who knows a lot about this fx market in the ecb. euro-dollar just a touch weaker. in the fx market, a big week coming up next week. romaine: definitely a growth story with regards to some of these social media stocks. snap is the biggest mover based on volume, the biggest mover based on percentage gain on the day. snap having a phenomenal morning right now, up about 17%. this is going to the best day going back to october last year. i bring that up because last year was when they had that

blowout third quarter where they reported 52% revenue growth, and everyone said this ain't sustainable. and what happened? a quarter after that, they had sales growth. a quarter after that, they rose 66%. in q2, they grew 116%. this is not only about snap, but about a broader move in digital ad spending that is lifting snap, lifting twitter, and next week we'll hear from alphabetic facebook, and most likely it is going to lift them as well. here are your big movers on the day into next week, at least as far as the tech stocks are concerned. there's another story out there this morning that i think is flying a little bit under the radar. this is with regards to chinese regulation, and now it involves a lot of the education companies. tal down about 53% in the premarket. gsx also down about 58%. all of these education stocks are under trouble right now because of a story out by

bloomberg saying that the chinese government is going to force these for-profit education companies to basically go nonprofit. this would effectively completely neutralize this industry, and it is not exactly unheard of. back in april, the chinese government hinted at this and fined a lot of these companies for what they called unfair pricing practices. so a lot have bailed out. this is having big reverberations for a lot of other chinese adr's. keep an eye on all of those names, a big story with regard to chinese regulation. tom: thank you so much. "the close" this afternoon. . , romaine bostick with others the euro -- this afternoon, remap bostick -- this afternoon, remain bostick with others. the silliest gkionakis -- vasil eios gkionakis with bank lumbar

dodi a, you see strong -- with banque lombard odier, you say ace strong move. why do we see such a strong move? vasileios: it has to do with domestic fundamentals. there have been some signs of slowing down, but nonetheless, the chinese growth is still going to cause a rise in the second half of the year. there are a lot of flows into china right now, and this is because of the introduction of a lot of chinese assets in the benchmarks. the other thing that is going out quite interestingly is that chinese exporters have been feeding into an unusually large pile of dollars over the past eight to nine months, and whenever we have had that in the

past, which coincided with period of prices, it lead to acing the unwinding of that pileup dollars and conversion back into the renminbi. the confluence of all of these factors, and the fact that global trade is thinning out very slowly if you look at global trade volume, just rising at an astonishing rate, this is meant to normalize. the momentum is not going to be there for indefinite future. but nonetheless, it is going to remain supportive for the renminbi. on the other hand, you also have dollar migration across a broad range of currencies. jonathan: where does this fit into the euro call for you and the team? vasileios: i don't think the ecb

, everyone was expecting a dovish message. if they didn't get it, that would be kind of weird based on the review of the strategy. i think for the very short-term, we are going to be in some range trading between $1.17 and $1.18, but the one thing is the market maybe repricing growth from the u.s. to europe. the reason i am saying this is because we still have more restrictions in place in europe compared to the u.s. and as this covid situation improves, because we believe it will improve and u.k. is a prime example for that, you are going to have alleviation of these restrictions in europe, and that is why right now, if you look at the ratio between the eurozone pmi and the u.s. ism, it is actually rising quite sharply. we think this is going to be a tailwind for currencies and the second half of the year. jonathan: do you understand the

reaction function of the ecb? i get the data. do you understand the reaction function of the ecb? vasileios: i pretend i do. let's put it this way. i think everyone else in the market is of the same reasoning. there isn't really a lot to say about the ecb right now. the reality of the matter is that the ecb has done what it has been able to do. it was a dovish press conference, a dovish statement, but it doesn't really change anything. at the end of the day, they have been doing this for the past six years or so, and they haven't really changed that much as far as the inflation is concerned. so it would be a bit naive to believe it is going to change what is coming in the future.

taylor: coming back to the u.s., the massive call of 2021 was dollar weakness. have you seen the dollar weakness behind us for the year? vasileios: well, what has actually changed i think, and that was something from march, we went through two different narratives in the market. the first was the surprise from the fed, and the fact that we started having the pricing in of more hikes in 2023. the second one was the change in the narrative from the inflation scare to growth scare. i am still in the camp of some moderate dollar weakness. that is largely on the fact that we are still in a growing environment, and historically, the dollar depreciates off growth even if yields go higher from here. but of course, if we do get into

some risk analysis and they manifest, then we are going to see some strength. jonathan: the silliest unitas -- the silliest gkionakis -- vasil eios gkionakis, good to see you. we talked about the division between a president bullard and governor brainard. let's talk about the division of the ecb. a story out by reuters on that division and some of the dissent that christine lagarde had to deal with. here's the quote. "a third policymaker, who also voiced significant objections, had to leave the meeting early and was not present at the final tally. this according to a source of there's -- the final tally." this according to a source of theirs. tom: i am a bit of a student of fed history, but i can't recall from 1951 a gap of style that we

have seen from draghi to lagarde , without any aspersion to either of them. but what a change of messaging have we seen with christine lagarde. jonathan: i think most people in this market miss the communication of president draghi, that is for sure. and that was a high bar anyway. let's be clear about that. could the barbie any higher for the handoff? i think the bar was pretty high for chairman powell from chairman yellen, and that first quarter was not pretty. the man we heard at the end of 2018 is just a different person compared to the one we hear from at the moment. tom: i am going to do a gdp analysis. where is the boom in europe? it is there, but no it is not. jonathan: bank of america asking that question this morning, too. the s&p advancing 0.4%. another beautiful morning in new york city. good morning to you all worldwide. this is bloomberg. ♪

laura: with the first word news, i'm laura wright. talks between the european union and the u.s. on vaccine passports are making little progress. bloomberg has learned that because there is no certification program in america, the eu launched its covid pass at the beginning of the month. the bloc is at an advanced stage of talks in vaccine passports with the u.k. tom barrack is back in federal court today. the trump ally will be relearned -- will learn whether he will be released on bail. prosecutors say he is a flight risk. his lawyers say he is not guilty. jp morgan planning to more than double the number of advisors in its traditional broker business. the bank will expand in wealth management by hiring more than 500 advisors in the coming years. jp morgan also wants to bring the unit closer to wealth managers who work in retail branches. wall street banks have been bulking up the businesses that

cater to the affluent. summer vacations in august may be a travel nightmare in the u.s.. southwest and american canceled about 3% of their flights the first six days of july, while more than 33% were delayed. that is much higher than prepend them at levels. the blame is going to capacity constraints, labor shortages, and unprecedented weather conditions. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i definitely think business travel will continue to recover. we were down about 69%.

with the business travel component in the month of june, we are expecting that will continue to recover to be down may be 50% by september, and then continue improving after that. jonathan: the outlook for these guys is brighter. that is the message from gary kelly, a taste from the airlines in america, the southwest airlines ceo there. good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with taylor riggs. lisa back with us on monday. here is your equity market. on the s&p 500, advancing a three-day winning streak into friday, up 18 this morning. we advanced 0.4%. yields are higher, approaching 1.30%, higher by a basis point or two. a conversation about the euro. do you understand the reaction function of the ecb? i will leave that one open for you to think about. euro-dollar down almost 0.1%. fascinating to hear from the c-suite of the airlines. i've got no idea what the trajectory for policy from this

a adminstration at the federal level, at the state level will be to deal with this surge in cases. everyone's got their view on what it should be. no idea what it will be and what this will mean for the airlines, for individuals, and ultimately what happens to international travel. we were told in several days we would find out. it's been more than a week. tom: southwest air has cut to be the official airline of "love island," up 100 62% at one point. they have survived. jonathan: the benefit is it is a domestic story. for the other players, the likes of united, delta, american, they're hoping that corridor between london and new york gets going again, they will have to wait. tom: we will see. dave wilson now with us on the equity market. we could have a four hour conversation about nasdaq 415,000. you are looking at the shifts that has been made as we go into an end of summer view. dave: we are talking about the

u.s. versus the rest of the world. some people will say u.s. stocks eked in february -- stocks peaked in february, but if you look at the u.s. in a global context, you get a very different story. what we are looking at here is the s&p 500 relative to something called the s&p global ex-us broad market index, so developed and emerging markets outside the u.s. you saw that ratio between the two indicators dropped about 10.5% from a high-end september to a low in february, and since then, it has made back the entire decline. it set a record two weeks ago. it set another record on tuesday. tom: full breadth into that. all the gloom crew this morning is talking about a lack of breadth out there. if this comeback back in america really the comeback of amazon, apple, and the rest of the high flyers? tom: you can argue that -- dave: you can argue that to some extent. that is the benchmark in terms

of this particular comparison. that said, u.s. stocks across the board are expensive at this point, whether you look at the s&p 500 or a broader picture of the market. there was a chart that bloomberg opinion's john authers had out earlier this week, looking at the cyclical adjusted price earnings, 10 years worth of results, and the u.s. came up as the most excessive among about three dozen markets around the world. so clearly, people's willingness to pay for u.s. stocks plays into this, too. tom: i've got 47 people on a friday morning telling me to go to cash. [laughter] taylor: in terms of leveraged cash, right? come with us on over to china. if you want to talk about what is trading at a discount, it is china. what are you hearing given the regulatory overhang of that country? tom: trading -- dave: trading at a discount, that is one way to put it. another way to put it is they are really roiling the markets. didi global down below $10, sold

at $14 for american depository receipts. the latest wrinkle, one that has been coming up for some time, people familiar with the matter saying china is going to clamp down hard on online tutors, securing -- so you are seeing these companies down 50% or more in today's trading, and that is on top of losses we have seen the last few months, so clearly china is kind of its own market at this point, and it is one that is being heavily influenced by government intervention. tom: dave wilson, thank you so much. jon ferro, i am fired up about next week on earnings. i've been calling this for months, that earnings are going to be there. corporations will adjust and adapt. i am not so much looking at earnings in the headlines. i really want to know what the view forward is. jonathan: apple, microsoft this coming tuesday. the view forward on the numbers, or how they want to approach

this surge in cases? tom: absolutely different. jonathan: we've already had some reporting from our team over the last week that they are delaying the return to office. i wonder how much clarity we get from mr. cook at apple out of cupertino. tom: also, their unique relationship with china. they've got the new products coming and all that, but what do they do with china, both as a manufacturer, the flood is part of that debate, and also what they do with china as a consumer of their products. jonathan: to strip out supply chain risk, that is a conversation that have been going on for some time, but many investors want exposure to china over a long time horizon. the challenge now is you've got to do a heck of a lot more homework then you used to to get exposure to that, given what has happened with didi over the last couple of weeks. if you bring up that board again that dave wilson was working through, the nikkei, what have you done for me lately?

not much. the msci e.m. index, that has done pretty much nothing either. it is up 2% year to date. this was the trade meant to deliver this year, ex-us synchronized global growth. it has turned out more complicated than that. tom: i just did an eyeball on big tech ex-tesla in the s&p 500. it used to be 19%, 20%. it is now 22%. what do we do when one quarter of the s&p 500 is six stocks? jonathan: we had that conversation nevertheless several years, haven't we? can you explain what that is? tom: it is just creeping up. jonathan: what is that? what is it? tom: is a radio signal. jonathan: ok. you mean the stock market is getting higher? tom: it is very lifty.

jonathan: should we weigh this out off air? it might be more beneficial to our audience. let's work through the price action. on the s&p 500, three-day winning streak. on the s&p 500, advancing on was 20 points, up by 0.5%. just the range on the 10 year, i know you have been -- i have been going on about it a lot, but it is amazing to see it back through 1.30% without much of a catalyst. taylor: i keep hearing it, it is half technicals, half shorts. the other half we have heard from some more cautious analysts is more fundamental. how much was that the growth scare on monday? jonathan: it is given life to a fundamental story. you get the price move. taylor: you have the swissie-10 year -40 basis points, so 1.30% doesn't look so bad. tom: very philosophical. jonathan: just working through

things, getting to another weekend. i know you were distracted watching "ted lasso" already. what was the first episode like? tom: last year's first episode was fabulous. you will love it. you will know stuff we won't even know. jonathan: i will watch an episode. from new york, this is bloomberg.

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>> you have a natural slowing of sequential growth. you are not going to keep growing at 10%. >> we have an economy that is going to continue to grow, but the largest gains may be behind us. >> almost everything has told us we are in a regime shift. we are going to see growth and inflation decelerate. >> inflation has already risen significantly higher than the fed had earlier predicted it would. >> there might be a surprise out of the fed. it seems like there are some very hawkish members. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.