not necessarily a terrible thing for the economy as a whole. >> if there is not as much slack in the labor market, inflation could still be stubbornly high. >> inflation will run ahead of expectations but i think it will settle out around 3%. >> we just have to keep pushing on this recovery long enough to get back to where we should be. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance, live on tv and radio. i'm alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. equity futures down 13 points. negative one third of 1%. it has the feel of june 2015 where every morning you wake up to see where china closed. the csi 500 down another four percentage points. tom: we have a chart out there

somewhere on the hang seng index. i compared it to the pandemic. we are also back to pandemic levels in hang seng. i get the it is correlated but i'm going to suggest there is more going on than china. this is a complex moment. jonathan: i think we've got something. tom: i think for radio it is important. i wore my beige suit for tim cook. jonathan: we will move on. lisa, i think investors are trying to work out what a transmission mechanism is for what we are seeing take place in chinese equities. for the foreign investors, why should they care? lisa: frankly, there is a ceiling -- a feeling that some of these assets are un- investable. xi jinping is so committed to his agenda. jonathan: the estimate, 2.83, a

bit of a beat on revenue, second-quarter revenue. that takes us to the next stop, the earnings after the bell. microsoft, apple, alphabet. take your pick this week. tom: we are going to know more at 5:00 this afternoon. we will go beneath all the headlines and give a richer view. it is an important day because it reaffirms america's tech dominance but also says how much the other groups of stocks are struggling. jonathan: equity futures on the s&p 500 down 13, 14 points. outside of that into the bond market, a former treasury with yields lower by three or four basis points. the euro, just a little weaker. lisa: and we are going to talk

about these 10 year treasury yields. the real -- the real yield is hitting another all-time low and how much does this actually tell us? is this a read on the economy, or is this something else? i know we're going to be speaking about that, coming up. also coming up at 8:30, we will get the u.s. durable goods orders for the month of june. there could be signs of some of the supply chain disruptions. how much they are increasing or decreasing. every readout will be helpful to see how long those inflationary pressures will be in terms of restocking and supply. at 10:00, you get the consumer confidence report. this is going to be one of the key indicators. how much are people ratcheting back expectations for employment? there confidence regardless of inflationary pressures, all of these aspects actually have more forward guidance than the data

we get on a regular basis. i think this is something that even the fed has talked about taking a look at. as you were talking about after the close, we are going to be getting a slew of big tech earnings. apple, alphabet and microsoft. for apple, the key is iphone sales. with alphabet, it is going to be ad revenue and what that looks like in a post-pandemic world. with microsoft, i am interested in the cloud computing, how much they're getting dominance, particularly with amazon's aws. jonathan: speaking of dominance, those three names on the nasdaq, one quarter of the nasdaq 100. lisa: i also wonder about regulatory pressure, what they say with respect to that, especially what we saw yesterday and the u.s. torpedoing one of the recent transactions that had been approved. i also think any indication they give about the china crackdown on big tech, what this means for

them will be notable. jonathan: apple, 11.4% of the nasdaq 100. microsoft about 10% of the nasdaq 100. alphabet, a little more than 4%. tom: all those worries that lisa mentioned, but what they will really address is the complete total dominance of what is out there. you talk to the experts and they say maybe the regulations or this or that but the fact is everybody got this call wrong in january and february of this year, a major shot from credit suisse. jonathan: we will catch up a little bit later. -- joins us now, morgan stanley investment head of fixed income. allow me to start with bloomberg intelligence. they wrote back in may, quote,

the fed owns a quarter of the tips market up from 10% at the end of 2019. brian, can you help us understand when people come on the program and talk about record low yields, how big is the role of the fed in this story? brian: they definitely help. they stay away from the tips market because the tips market is not that big. it is very easily moved. i think if you think about average inflation targeting, what does the fed tell you to do? we should own tips over regular treasuries. i think helping it not only with what they are buying but their language. tom: what does this large negative real yield mean to the real banking system? brian: you have to do anything you can to try and get money out or earn positive real yield. that is the point. it means the average dollar sitting there is going to lose money in real terms, so you

can't leave things sitting around. it forces you out of the yield curve. i think higher tech valuations are a result of that, so it continues to push money through the system into riskier assets. lisa: there is also a question of what the negative real yields are telling us about the economy. i think jon:'s question is a salient 1 -- jon's question is a salient one. more is at play than anything else. is that what has been driving the market which has been dominated via federal reserve with a balance sheet? brian: i don't want to ascribe too much to technicals. i have to imagine there are other things going on. inflation noise had gotten so high. i think growth is peaking. it is not just technicals but certainly it takes the fight out of the market and you could

increase the price of things pretty dramatically. technicals is a part of what is happening for sure, but also i think the growth scare and the china scare and the delta variant. i think these are all technicals and a couple fundamentals but the net result will be rates start to reverse of the next few months and move higher. jonathan: we think rates should be higher. you won't be the first or the last. we will hear that again and again for the next few months. hang seng down by more than 4% at the close today. csi 100 down by 3.5%. the csi's down almost eight percentage points in three sessions. many people stateside right here in america, focused on american markets, will be asking the question why does this matter to me? what is the dominant transmission mechanism that you would be concerned about at the moment? brian: that is a great question. a broad risk off, that we saw

for a few brief moments. treasuries really -- down toward 1.1%. the fed definitely can go lower. i think if that equity scare continues, rates will fall again. everyone expects them to go up. the summer is quiet. i think a risk off position could force recovery rates even lower. this is not a one-sided opportunity. jonathan: good to catch up, brian weinstein, morgan stanley investment management head of global fixed income. -- meeting content -- concludes tomorrow with chair powell. tom: i would suggest the meeting has changed because of covid in the news from mayor de blasio

and the state of california. jon, i'm sorry but it is a change meeting from where it was five or six days ago. jonathan: their view is the decision to initiate a program of -- was in the context of a crisis we no longer have and i think the argument is still there, and probably an argument that will still be made. tom: that argument can definitely be there because whatever debate we had yesterday off of the goldman sachs and deutsche bank takes on the trail of this boom economy, the fact is we are in a boom economy right now, even if we come in soggy, six weeks ahead, it is still a boom economy. jonathan: the difficulty for the hawks is recruitment efforts for the next 24 hours, might be increasingly difficult. lisa: the hawks are not going to get majority in terms of the push on the federal reserve. i am curious about how much recognition there is. people are more worried about inflation and we are not keeping

pace with the increases we are seeing in common goods that people have to buy. a story in the financial times, talking about the rising inequality in wealth. frankly, very much on the heels of fed policy that have improved the prices of assets. you wonder how much this is giving fed officials angst. jonathan: people will step up and have those conversations with their employers. do you think their employers reach for the research of the federal reserve to explain to their employees that it's transitory? lisa: i would count on that. jonathan: i am interested to see what happens. lisa: i think companies are going to say it is going to crimp our margins and hamper our ability to expand. jonathan: coming up, -- chief equity and relative strategy, on this market which is coming into tuesday at all-time highs for the s&p. we are down on futures. this is bloomberg. ♪

laura: -- rebuild ties that could lead to multiple openings for president biden to push for a breakthrough installed nuclear talks. kim jong-un and south korea's leaders have been exchanging messages. in tokyo, a grim new record. the number of coronavirus cases in the capital hit a record today, more than 2800. the surge comes as tens of thousands of it at -- of visitors are in tokyo for the summer olympics. only about a quarter of japan's population is fully vaccinated. president biden says the american contact mission in iraq will be over by the end of the year. there expect it to keep a military presence on the ground. the president met with iraq's

prime minister yesterday. american troops in iraq have been gradually transitioning into advisory and training roles. in china, shares extended their selloff onto a third day. technology and education shares retreated once again while property stocks also fell. tencent holdings slumped over 6%. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i am fully committed to

passing a bipartisan infrastructure bill. centers should be on notice that the senate may stay in session through the weekend in order to finish the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and as i've said before, further delays may mean the senate will remain in session into the previously scheduled august recess. jonathan: senate majority leader chuck schumer. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. coming into tuesday at all-time highs on the s&p and nasdaq. we are -13 points lower by a third of 1% on the s&p 500. from the treasury market, a bid into treasury yields. we are down to 11 on a u.s. 10 year. lloyd austin in singapore, criticizing china, going on to say --here is the headline that sticks out to me. the specter of coercion from

rising powers, this along with u.s. officials saying yesterday, reportedly for chinese. tom: we start the show i'm economic finance investment and look at the united states international relations. general austin in singapore. this as dutere fights for his life in philippines with his final state of the union, addressing what we are talking about here, the exhaustion of the united states navy, this is about austin in singapore, the uss nimitz and marie horton finally home after 341 days at sea. this is showing the flag and it costs money. lisa: i would say the optics of this speech right now as you have mr. austin in singapore, you have the deputy secretary of state, wendy sherman who is in china for talks and these talks

are on the heels of the last -- of the alaska meeting with china. you see the push from this administration, and especially this week we will have tony blinken heading to india. a push towards asia. making sure the united states shores up their allies as they try to confront and have more of this challenge with beijing. tom: does the biden administration have a south china sea policy? lisa: what they have right now, and they are still working on their policy, we have not heard as much about the south china sea but you have heard one of those trump tariffs put in place has not been taken off. many were expecting a softer biden and administration when it comes to the trade policies. the latest sanction being what is going on in hong kong with the united states telling investors and businesses that they should be careful when dealing with hong kong and issued this memo, basically

saying that if you are and hong kong, make sure you are aware of what is going on with the coming this party. jonathan: these issues, the epicenter of policy for this at administration. also the epicenter of infra structure spending as well but i have not heard that for a long time when it comes to infrastructure spending. there was a focus initially on the rising force that is the chinese economy and the chinese communist party and what we needed to do at home to protect that. what is that conversation like now? annmarie: that conversation is still in focus, when you hear the president out touting his infra structure plan. he will mention we need this to take on and challenge a bigger more economic weight of china. you heard that in congress when they were specifically targeting these chinese bills in the senate and in the house. this is when you heard that kind of rhetoric. it is still there, lurking. they are trying to figure out

how they're going to pay for it. there were a number of snags that the administration is hitting with democrats and republicans to get the bipartisan infrastructure deal done, when it comes to transit and water. right now is more about the details, not the broader impact of why they want to boost american infrastructure. lisa: and shockingly, they seem to be missing each of their deadlines. they struggle to agree on everything from water policy to public transportation. sticking with domestic policy, i want to get your read on a recent department of justice memo following the mask mandates and vaccination mandates for people in new york and california. the justice department came out and said even though this is an emergency approved vaccine, it does not prohibit states from mandating it, also universities. how significant is this, and terms of vaccination policy? annmarie: it is just a memo at the moment.

it doesn't mean courts need to uphold it, but what you are seeing, and we have talked about this for weeks, what next can be done? if incentives aren't working, what can the federal government do? you also have the department of veteran affairs having their employees make vaccines mandatory. there is a sea change across the country as well as in washington, d.c. and this just puts pressure on the white house and the biden administration which was very hesitant to have a vaccine mandate. potentially that conversation is going to come back in play. lisa: how important is this for president biden to get vaccinations up, in order to garner more support from the public at a time when it is very delicate in terms of freedoms and individual freedoms, and trying to move this country forward and recover? annmarie: it is much easier for the biden administration if you have things like the department of justice coming out and having this memo, because that puts the onus on private employers. this gives private employers and states a little more backing and encouragement to do these

vaccine mandates, potentially introduce vaccine passports and the like, getting people out and vaccinated is probably the biggest concern of this administration, and then second to that would be infrastructure. you hear both of these being talked about when the president goes out to the country and discusses it. part of the vaccination program is also people in want to get back to work -- also people want to get back to work and hopefully what they want to do is make available more jobs in the country. jonathan: annmarie hordern, thank you very much. let's finish this segment with a bit of optimism around covid-19 and the trajectory of cases. jp morgan, saying with u.k. cases down over the week, it appears to be behind us which could be a signal for rotation back into value, reflation and reopening. the u.k. being a case study on what could develop in america. tom: ian bremmer out with an

incredibly important video, a very courageous video. jon,, this is not about cases. every pro we talked to says lose cases and analyze hospitalizations and deaths and particularly hospitalizations which are through the roof. jonathan: i'm with you and vaccinations will be the big push in this country. it is interesting to see how the policy effort develops. the emphasis is not to put more restrictions on the vaccinated. i think it is an important point for the u.k. the proportion of the population, here is the important point. we all ready saw the relationship between cases and deaths break down in the u.k., and even better news more recently is that cases are totally rolling over in the last several days.

that is what we want to see continue. coming up, chris verrone, head of mac rester to g. we will have him on the market and the pandemic, with johns hopkins. we will do that later. from new york, all-time highs into tuesday. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. all-time highs into tuesday on the s&p 500 and on the nasdaq. just a little bit softer this morning. we are about to snap that five-day winning streak may be. it's the russell to small caps underperforming. the global underperforming you know where that's coming from. hong kong and china. we were negative by more than 4%. down another 3.5% over the last three days. down almost eight percentage points. just get your head around that. what is the transmission mechanism for that pain to bleed out into global markets?

right now we've got a sentiment issue clearly. we also have economic growth risks. policy risk is very different to growth risk. are we about to make that transition away from a story that is all about policy and regulation to something that will deliver more concern around things like economic growth in china that would spill out into the rest of the world and global markets in a more profound way. how much does the china story way on yields here. yields in another three basis points on 30. down another three there. i think that just frames the conversation people are having this morning as they wake up. they look at chinese equities again and wonder, why does it matter to me? why do i care? tom: what is so important is that we see this very real. we've got the politics folding right in to the interest rate market.

i would point out there's a few other things going on as well. the secretary speaking in singapore. the headlines are what you would expect. he says we will not flinch from duties within the south china sea. one headline, u.s.'s taiwan work consistent with our one china policy. there is the delicacy of the moment to the north to the south china sea. now we go to strategic's head of microstrategy. you make an immense distinction on this day of apple, alphabet microsoft earnings of the odd weighting of the dow, the odd weighting of all these better weighting standard & poor's 500. explain what our listeners and viewers should do. >> i think it's an important distinction. this difference between equally weighted s&p versus the cap weighted s&p.

the five largest stocks in the s&p are roughly 30% of the entire weight of the index. when you look at the average issue, it has not made a new high since may 10. it's not terrible, it's not fatal. but under the surface this has been a much more frustrating market over the last two or three months than just looking at the index would lead you to believe. tom: we look at the technical analysis of the moment and on radio what is so important is that at least -- got the bay shoot memo. jonathan: did not? -- did i? will talk about that a little bit later. i will send you an email about this. $10.10, so look, the outlook for

so many of these companies is better. we were talking about synchronized global growth at the start of the year. that didn't pan out. some of these deep trades really did not. can we just blame china for that? >> when you talk about china in particular, it's almost 35% of the em. when you talk about the equal weighted s&p, that's its own problem when it comes to what the chinese market does here. so look away from china. india still acts great. brazil still acts great. so em away from china actually still acts pretty well here. jonathan: where does japan fit in? >> what's really notable, some of these asian consumer cyclicals many of which are found in japan have started to

reassert themselves over the last several weeks. i know that on most sounds crazy even the headlines out of china. asian cyclicals have started to turn back up over the last two weeks. so have the european cyclicals. it reminds me of last summer. asian and european cyclicals led the u.s. cyclicals by about six weeks. there seems to be something brewing there in the re-catalyzing of that cyclical trade. lisa: what's the strongest correlation in terms of input that seems to be driving that shift? >> i think it margin we have crates that go back to last year and low bond yields catalyze cyclicality. high bond yields kill recovery or crush cyclicality. this is the exact opposite condition. it reminds us a lot of last summer where -- yields were

instrumental in catalyzing or starting the spark for what would become the cyclical rally of the back half. so we see a similar thing here. lisa: this is where i wanted to go. the idea that low yields pushes people into the riskier sectors because you are going to be getting more income from some of those sectors. the flipside is what of the bond market is sending us a signal? what if it is sending a bearish indication on the overall economy? that would have a negative impact on cigna close -- cyclicals. is the move in bond yields purely driven by technicals and a lack of liquidity in the summertime? >> this is a fair debate. i think the message from bond was about something truly sinister on the economic horizon, i think credit conditions would also be getting -- and we haven't seen that. the other thing we haven't seen as bond yields have come down over the last four months, you have not gotten even a hint of

leadership from staples or utilities. staples underperformed when bond yields were rising the first part of the year and they have underperformed again as bond yields fell the second part of the year. that's just not leadership from these defensive groups. tom: which faang has the best chart? i know you don't talk individual stocks because we are wearing base suits. -- bay suits. >> on a little curious about apple. apple has not made new relative highs versus the s&p. the weakest of the faang charts has been netflix. we think netflix is putting in a big top. there is some distinction being paid among some of these names. when you look away from the big fangs, there is a look -- a book of stocks we call the baby faang. those have not kept pace with some of the bigger names.

tom: does that go to cash flow? do your charts say profit and quality matter right now? >> mike kelly did some really good work yesterday looking at the faang names -- my colleague did some really good work yesterday looking at the faang names. there's a pretty valid argument to make if you are looking for cash or cash exposure. the faang names is not a bad way to do that. jonathan: let's talk about the financials briefly. for the majority of guests that come on this show and talk about the cyclical trade, they are overweight. can we get it done with yields down here? >> you have seen a bit of a flush in sentiment. if you look at etf flows into the xls back in march in april, they were super aggressive. everyone was a convicted financial goal.

we have seen liquidation and financial flows in the months that have followed. the last week we had a significant outflow from the bank names. you had a surge in the number of stocks. you put those factors together, it means you are in the zip code of a pretty good tradable -- in banks. jonathan: chris verrone. tom: he wears a bay suit. jonathan: is that the entry fee? we will move on from that quickly. coming up a little bit later for microsoft and alphabet and then amazon later in the week. facebook wednesday. that's exciting. tom: seriously. david wilson leading our coverage. how much did we miss lisa? jonathan: how bearish did that get? lisa: come on. jonathan: five-day winning streak on the s&p.

get happy. lisa: the question is why is 10 year treasury yields at one point 2%. jonathan: here we go -- tom: here we go. lisa: if this is an indication of the economic outlook, it is bearish. if not, what said an indication of? jonathan: perhaps that's why the nasdaq is at record highs. jonathan: this is going to go well today. i heard a rumor that maybe i will be joining you for the fed show tomorrow afternoon. even how this is going, i'm having a rethink -- given how this is going, i'm having a rethink. chairman powell news conference. tom: nice segue. jonathan: many people believe it has the space, the reason of piling up to take a punt and wake -- weight.

tom: you will probably not get the last question in a press conference. jonathan: your equity market five-day winning streak. it's a tuesday on the s&p 500. all-time highs. i've got to stretch it another 30. 12494 on tends. yields come in four basis points. the story is about stress and china. the question people have stateside as we wake up this morning, what does it mean for me. what is the transmission mechanism for that stretch to bleed out. in the fx market, euro-dollar we are -0.14%. for our audience worldwide with some tension between tom keene and lisa abramowicz, en jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. -- i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i'm laura wright. wall street is stepping up the pressure on congress over the infrastructure package. the heads of blackrock, blackstone group and morgan stanley are among the ceo's wrote to congressional leaders urging them to swiftly pass the measure. senate talks suffered a setback. republicans rejected an offer from democrats meant to address all outstanding issues. back to the office mandates from california and new york city. california will require all state employees to prove they vaccinated, wear a mask in the office and get tested for the coronavirus once a week. new york city is doing the same for its municipal workers paired second-quarter earnings at ups eight expectations. that's likely to be a relief spooked by fedex's plans.

bitcoin fell after briefly trading above $40,000. amazon denied that its job posting for a digital currency executive meant that it will start excepting the world's largest cryptocurrency for payments this year. investors rushing to cover. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we watched over 600,000

people in large part because we didn't have vaccines. going forward, anyone we lose is due to stupidity. it's due to political failure of our government and leaders. if no one else is going to say it, i'm going to say. i believe that saving those tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives is worth a vaccine mandate. jonathan: the outspoken ian bremmer, g0 media founder and a video posted online. typically we would do a market check quickly, but i don't think we should do that following those comments. that gets to the heart of the debate in this country. tom: it folds into the fed meeting tomorrow. right now off of dr. bremmer's comments, dr. nisha doll just with johns hopkins center. i need to talk to you about the medicine realities within democracy and liberty. ian bremmer is talking from a

political aspect. you represent the medical aspect. can you succeed at your medicine amid american democracy and our definition of american liberty? >> i think we can and if we are talking about vaccine mandates, it's one thing for the government mandate. that's very difficult and doesn't usually happen. we've got so many private organizations, employers, schools, transportation companies where i do think it's justified for mandates including in my own industry where we are struggling to get nurses. when we institute mandates, ec vaccination rates go up. it illustrates confidence in the vaccine. this should be a noncontroversial vaccine. tom: why are nurses afraid to be vaccinated? >> it's unclear to me. it's likely because they have

swallowed misinformation. these nurses have seen something on facebook, specifically things about fertility, things about this being experimental and there are some people who believe these ideas about microchips and 5g as well. which is kind of surprising, but it's taken hold in the nursing unions have given them cover and scared off administrators from mandating the vaccine but more and more of them are going to do it. once we get full fda a truthful -- approval, it's going to be universal that health-care workers should be vaccinated and that's what it should be because it's a professional obligation and i was one of the first people to get vaccinated the minute i could before christmas. lisa: some might say this is an overly narrow or complicated issue. i feel this goes to the heart of the issue and that is the department of justice saying that even though this vaccine only has emergency

authorization, that doesn't necessarily mean employers and universities cannot mandate that people get vaccinated. this goes to the heart of the issue of legal immunity for and to see -- entities that decide to create vaccination mandates. how important is it for the government to lead on this issue? >> it's important that the government give these companies assurance. they were brought into it through operation warp speed. when there's a public health emergency, there are indemnifications done for those companies to get them to make this vaccine. there is some uncertainty and this is what happened during the 1976 swine. it happened during the h1n1 pandemic. . it's important that the government say these companies are going to be indemnified. this is a government run program in order to curtail this pandemic. i don't think there's going to be that many losses.

when you look at the safety and efficacy of these vaccines, they are really off the charts when it comes to any vaccine humans have ever created. lisa: why do we still have an asterisk around the vaccines when there is such efficacy rates and kids under the age of 12 cannot get vaccinated? >> the emergency use authorization was necessary because the fda needs six months of data to approve a vaccine. pfizer recently crossed that threshold. they have applied for priority review. it is something that i think we should do faster and quicker because we know this is holding up many places from mandating vaccines and it's giving and type vaccine activists talking points. i think we're going to see children approved below the age

of 12 but it's important we do the studies. it's important to make sure that the risk-benefit ratio favors the vaccine. as you get to those younger age groups, the risk of younger disease gets to lower levels. lower than influenza. so we want to get the dosing right. tom: it seems to me the medical community is drowning in success. it's a miracle that we got the mrna vaccines done so quickly. as most of the angst right now because this is all happening so fast unlike a slower process of previous pandemics? >> it may be part of it because mrna vaccines do give you that great advantage to make a vaccine candidate within hours or weeks. i think the lightning speed of this which was one of the advantages has been something

people have exploited to say this happened too quickly. imagine if we were still waiting the old way. how many more hundreds of thousands of people would have died, how many illnesses would have happened. i think the speed of the mrna vaccine is what makes them the most attractive thing about them and it's probably going to change the way we face infectious disease outbreaks in the future forever. it's a huge advantage we now have as humans against the viral kingdom. jonathan: thank you for your hard work. don't mess at the end of a very long shift i'm sure. -- joining us at the end of a very long shift i'm sure. on the equity market, the s&p 500 -10. down .2% on the s&p. you can focus on covid cases, a handful of chinese names or you can take a look at the earnings coming out of america this morning. ups topping estimates. eps that's of revenue beating

expectations, bursting third-quarter outlook. going into big tech a little bit later. tom: i think you and kramer are absolutely correct. this is about the earnings. what's interesting, essentially as a generalization diversified american nontechnology companies and they are giving a nice room for as we go to the technology extravaganza. jonathan: the earnings are always better than expected. the outlook is brighter. the c-suite seems to have some confidence to raise the outlook. there's a difference. lisa: you are going to call me a bear for this. . people are looking at the pace of upgrades. that is starting to slow and that is what's underpinning the cautious response.

jonathan: i'm not going to call you a bear. that's a great defense. well done. tom: i have no idea what just happened here. lori is a bear? lisa: i was saying that was her argument. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> we are already in that decelerating upward revision base. >> a slowdown of some degree is not necessarily a terrible thing for the economy as a whole. >> if there's not as much slack in the labor market, inflation could still potentially be stubbornly high. >> inflation is likely to run ahead of expectations, but i think it will settle out at around 3%. >> we just got to keep pushing on this recovery long enough to get back to where we should be. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: here come the earnings. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market just a little bit lower ahead of a huge amount of results still to come in america. tom: they are coming in right now. industrial america is reporting. we