>> growth is going to slow. to some extent it is inevitable. >> it is important to keep in mind that this cycle has been proceeding very fast. >> we are already in the decelerating upward revision pace. >> this kind of economic strength, while it bodes very well, doesn't necessarily mean that corrections don't happen. >> the reality is we are going to continue as an economy, globally and domestically, to deal with the pandemic. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: chairman powell just a few hours away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive 0.05 dissent -- 0.05%.

tom: it is going to be interesting, what he's going to do. i would say it is medical first, do no harm, and that is the thrust of the press conference. what is interesting is the pandemic worry is there versus a corporate america that is adapting and adjusting. mcdonald's out moments ago. the comp sales numbers are really not legitimate, but they are showing the same thing we are seeing company after company. we are seeing margin resilience that is just unreal. jonathan: sales up 40.5%, slight upside surprise. the estimate, 38.7%. put together with the numbers we saw yesterday after the close from big tech, big money in big white. -- in a big way. tom: what is some important here is how do you extrapolate out this corporate excellence within a boom economy, or do you discard that and start worrying about this, worrying about that? that is the debate here.

jonathan: i mentioned a little bit earlier. for the likes of apple, it really underpins some of the fears people have. decelerating growth, supply chain growth persisting, then the likes of alphabet knocking it out of the park, speaking to that robust demand reflected by what happened with youtube, with ad sales up by 80% more than -- by more than 80% year on year. lisa: there is a question of how much this is an expected cyclical shift and how much this is a consolidation of market share in ad revenue spending, or just in general of market prowess by these big tech giants. jonathan: what do you make of that after the close today? is the bar a bit higher for facebook? tom: no, i think they are just going to report what they report. what they clearly displayed and what facebook display is the idea that they can adapt and adjust. we have been talking about this for weeks and weeks. frankly, gina martin adams has

led with her great analysis at bloomberg intelligence. every single cell side report is the same, surprise. they have adapted to get margins are sustained. jonathan: facebook up 1.5% in the premarket. let's get to the price action. your equity market on the s&p 500 basically unchanged, advancing a single point, up by 0.03%. outside of that, in the bond market, yields at 1.25% on tens. lisa: we have been talking a lot about the events to be watching. at 11:00 a.m., i am interested to hear what gina raimondo, the u.s. secretary of commerce, has to say. key questions for her, what do we need to fill the labor shortages we are seeing? how do we explain the frictions? how much do we need immigration to restart some of those programs, really coming at the

crucial time ahead of the fed, when we see people are not getting back into the workforce quickly enough? that participation rate stubbornly low. 2:00 p.m., the fed rates decision does come out. fed chair powell delivers some guidance on when they might start parking -- start talking about papering. we are talking about earnings. 87% of s&p 500 companies report earnings in the month of july have mentioned inflation as a key factor in their business going forward. this is not being reflected in market action or by the federal reserve. this dissidence right now is really causing a lot of angst. who is right? how persistent is this? what are the long-term ramifications? after the bell, facebook reporting earnings. can they meet those higher patients based on what we thought of google and youtube? the ad spending is coming back. jonathan: google stock up by

more than 50% year to date. tom: i'm glad you mentioned that because i think it is deceptive. google didn't really pop last year, so to me, the others had a huge year last year, and will google is making -- and now google is making the pop to catch up. jonathan: the cyclical story, the ad revenues kicked in and a massive way. big tech littering some big -- delivering some big numbers. bob doll with us. from your perspective, how difficult is it to tell a client we don't own them, we don't own those names? bob: i would be in a disappointed situation if i had to do my client that. thankfully we do. but the question is what happens for here. you have all been alluding to it. we have amazing corporate earnings in the second quarter, but almost definitionally, and the back half of this year,

market growth is going to decelerate. markets love when markets accelerate, not so much decelerate. i think it is just not a smooth glide, not a straight up. it is bumpy from here. tom: at crossmark, the game is to extrapolate out five years, 10 years. give me the courage of robert doll right now. how far out are you looking to believe in the extrapolation of apple, amazon, and for that matter, mcdonald's? robert: the companies are adapting, to use the word you have been using so far this morning. that is good news. the problem is what happens to the valuation, the multiples,

as interest rates creep higher. that is the trick. the companies' businesses are good. they are solid. they had figured out how to adapt to the slightly different world we have been in. it is more about valuation than can the companies execute. lisa: what are the scenarios you are looking at that could actually cause that to happen? robert: is it transitory or not? my guess is some is, but not all of it. the era of 0% to 2% inflation is over, and as a result, we are going to have to get to a little inflation. not high single digits, but enough that there's a different valuation. the markets have said inflation

is transitory. 10 year treasuries .25 sent is a ok, and p/e ratios where they are. we will see if that continues. then we will be onward and upward. jonathan: what are you looking for, something like 3%, 3.5%? robert: i think it is 3%-ish, as opposed to 1% to 2%. that doesn't sound like a big difference, but you know it is when it comes to valuation and interest rates. so where do i want to be? i think the countertrend move has been higher bonds, lower yields, growth stocks, defensive stocks. that is countertrend. i think you use that period we are experiencing now to beef up on your cyclical exposure, you

trimmed a ration if you haven't already done it. the u.s. and increasingly the global economy is in pretty good shape. we will get good am -- good economic news, and slightly higher inflation, which to me means higher interest rates. tom: is this a legit bull market, or is it still unloved? robert: it is legit. you know the sentiment numbers have moved up significantly. we've got to keep our eye on it. part of the argument is if i want to get out of stocks, where am i going to go? cash doesn't give me anything. bonds i think are risky. so in traditional asset classes, i just tick with my equities. jonathan: final question for me. i've asked a couple of people over the past couple of weeks, what do you want to own into year end, the nasdaq or the russell? robert: the russell into year end. more cyclicality there, and lower valuations compared to the

nasdaq. jonathan: interesting. tom: can we put out a banner that bob doll says sell apple? jonathan: i don't think we can do that. [laughter] i think we can say on the russell, that's all. robert: i still own apple, just less than i used to. jonathan: tom keene roulette is always tough. [laughter] bob doll come acrossma -- bob doll, crossmark chief global investment officer. tom: you know what? they are in the game. they are participating. yes, they are winning right now. but when the vix is 30, bob doll is going to be there saying acquire shares. jonathan: and when you asked that simple question, what would you like to own into year end, the answer tells you a lot about their view of the world and the economy. it really speaks to a lot. tom: there's two ways to go here. you can sell one and by the other. but the venn diagram approach, where you overweight russell, if that is your belief, is one way to go, like jonathan golub did

early in the year. lisa: i would argue that actually, the earnings we got after the bell yesterday seem to edify this idea that cyclicals could potentially get another wind versus the classic big neck and nasdaq. the idea here that ad spending is picking up, the world is returning, and that seems to be good money. jonathan: tom is saying bob is saying drop apple. [laughter] tom: i am just trying to create some excitement around here. jonathan: one thing i know for sure, and i don't know a lot for sure, is there is not tang in that cup. on the s&p, a three. we advanced 0.06%. from new york, this is bloomberg.

laura: with the first word news, i'm laura wright. federal reserve chair jerome powell and colleagues are expected to urge patients today on scaling back urge -- urge patience today on scaling back policy support. the delta variant is seen as giving powell another reason to be cautious. stocks in china and hong kong halted a three-day selloff. state run tried to reinsure -- to reassure investors shaken by the regulatory crackdown against education, tech, and the property sectors. the british government is about to end foreign teen for visitors from the u.s. and european union if they have been fully vaccinated. instead of isolating come of those travelers would have to takeover tests for leaving for the u.k. and after they get here -- isolating, those travelers would have to take covid tests for leaving for the u.k. and after they get here.

pfizer raised its earnings forecast. at the summer olympics, u.s. gymnast simone biles defend her title and the individual all-around final competition. she withdrew from the event today, a day after she pulled out of the team final. according to usa gymnastics, piles will focus instead on her mental wealth -- gymnastics, biles will focus instead on her mental health. she will be evaluated daily to see if she will participate in the individual competitions. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what the chinese government is now doing is cracking down on the companies that dominate

various sectors at the exclusion of smaller companies. so the regulatory crackdown is probably in the long run going to be good for the chinese markets. jonathan: that's the long view from mark mobius, obvious capital partners founding partner. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your equity market. on the s&p, advancing 0.04% on this fed decision day. yields are much lower. the last time around, we said this fed decision day, we opened that morning close to 1.50%. now, 1.24%. tom: it speaks volumes about the new low yield. the real yield, i'm sorry, five-year real yield, that's got to be unspoken, but in the back of the chairman's mind today.

jonathan: how do you think it changes the conversation at the fed today? tom: the conversation today will be overwhelmed by the pandemic. jonathan: that gives them the space they need. tom: they've got six weeks. let me bring up the famous fomc bloomberg terminal function. i use it nonstop. i have no clue what i am talk about here. i'd make it up. [laughter] jonathan: breaking news. lisa: exactly. exclusive. tom: september 22 is what matters. jonathan: the next after this one. tom: yep. jonathan: after jackson hole. tom: taken over by the delta variant. jonathan: we actually did a survey on that. lisa, i know you have gone through that, too. september seems to be the landing port for a lot of folks in this market. lisa: economists surveyed by bloomberg expect we will get tapering rhetoric. i do wonder how much of a path the chair has based on the delta

variant. i could make it up, too. jonathan: good to know that lisa doesn't make it up, too, tom. tom: right now, emily wilkins saves us in washington. speaker pelosi is trying to not do a john boehner. no one talks about senator schumer and his leadership of a senate majority doing a john boehner. does senator schumer has the troops behind him? emily: he's working to get them there. let's be real, at this point, we don't have a bipartisan and for structure deal, and even as that is coming together, we are hearing other democrats in the conference raise concerns. we don't have any sort of budget resolution, which we are going to need for that budget reconciliation. we keep hearing about details and details to work out. obviously, senator schumer has got a difficult job because he can't afford to lose any single one of the 50 democrats, but he keeps talking about a timeline.

he initially wanted to get this all done by the end of july. there's no way that is going to happen now. i think we are going to see a huge test of whether or not majority leader schumer can rally the troops behind him. tom: how is that test affected? is it one-vote in a week or two, or chit chat as they go to the sunday talk shows? emily: to a certain extent, we are looking at a longer timeline here as far as what actually gets done. on the bipartisan infrastructure package, you just can't forget that budget reconciliation package as well, the 3.5 trillion dollars, because speaker pelosi said she will not move on that bipartisan deal until the reconciliation packet goes. so senator schumer really needs to make sure they are turning out both of them. at this point, rob portman with senate republicans is doing the

negotiations. it will be down to them to figure out whether they are able to move forward or whether democrats might just have to go it alone on infrastructure. lisa: when i hear about the negotiations, sometimes i hear those parents from the peanuts cartoons, wa -- cartoons, wah wah, because it is the same thing over and over again. emily: it is crunch time because we are about to go into the august recess. there's nothing that motivates congress like being in congress. they don't want to have to spend their august recess in the capital working out a deal, so that creates a bit of a natural deadline. we have seen talks you all than a certain way that now it is just between two individuals. think about how some of the covid stuff got done. that was also steven mnuchin versus nancy pelosi, the two coming together and making a deal. obviously these are two different individuals, so we are going to have to keep an eye out here, but i am very much with

you on this. every day at the end of the day, i am like, man, i am going to go on "surveillance" tomorrow and tell them that negotiations are still ongoing. [laughter] lisa: you already know we are going to be like, what is the import of it? just to shift gears away from these negotiations, let's talk about the mask mandate and some of the political response to that. former president trump actually weighing in and saying unmask the children, coming out negatively to this recommendation by the cdc. what has the republican response been, especially given the fact that the regions that are more heavily republican have seen higher waves of infection from this delta variant? emily: so far the republican response has not been to embrace this mask mandate or some of the vaccine mandates we are starting crop up in various parts of the government and companies. last night we saw a tweet from kevin mccarthy, the republican

leader in the house, responding to the fact that the house will now need everyone to mask up again, and he immediately said this is a political game. this has sorta been politicized throughout. i think it is going to continue. there are a number of republicans i spoke with who said we are vaccinated, and we are frustrated that now we are being told we need to put on masks again are you the cdc is saying the delta variant is more infectious than the previous one, and this is something we are going to do. tom: i thought it was an unprepared interview, but i will try tomorrow as well. emily wilkins in washington. jon ferro, she prepares for our interviews. jonathan: it is good to know, isn't it? this from pfizer, to launch the study of a delta focused vaccine in august. they have just shared plans for a new covid vaccine formulation. the first touch -- the first batch of the delta focused covid shot has already been made. i don't think this will be a

surprise to many people, this is set to become a yearly event in the same way the seasonal flu is a yearly event. tom: this is called medicine and science. the timelines are real. i much lisa -- i am much lisa, let's go come under 12. the head of pediatrics at boston children's hospital was adamant in his conversation with us, it takes time with children. jonathan: pfizer at $41.80, down 0.8%. mcdonald's, sales and the u.s. versus 2019 up nearly 15%. in the rest of the world, they are hardly up at all. just a two-year comparison there. u.s. looks good. the rest of the world is pretty flat. tom: well, that is the virus. jonathan: more earnings still to come. facebook after the close a little later. before we get to the fed, we've got to catch up with john

ryding. we will do that shortly. up two on the s&p 500, advancing 0.05%. up about a basis point on tens to 1.2527%. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

(announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body

so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot. pain and stress is the only thing you have to lose. get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com.

♪ jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, here's the price action this wednesday morning. on the s&p 500, futures positive three, almost 0.1%. we advance on the nasdaq 0.3% after receiving about 1/4 of the nasdaq 100 in earnings yesterday, the likes of apple, microsoft, and alphabet. demand is good. the ad revenue from alphabet speaks to that. supply chain constraints, they might persist. growth will decelerate. apple earnings and the forward look speaks to that. that is the issue for me right now. we can talk about that more little bit later. what has changed for the federal reserve? that debate hasn't changed too much. what has changed for this market? the last meeting feels like a

long time ago. we closed on june 16 at 4220. we close yesterday at 4400. this is the bond market. 10 year right now, 1.2527%. we closed on june 16 30 basis points north of that at 1.57%. we can do this with the treasury yield curve as well. twos-tens looks like this. we closed on june 16 at 1.36. yields were much higher, and this curve was much steeper. a lot has changed since that last for eating -- since that last fed meeting. tom: stagnation within the boom economy. the mystery of q3 and q4 will flesh that out. jonathan: that is the bond market. as twos-tens. let's get to more earnings with romaine. romaine: i do want to go back to

apple because i think that story is emblematic of a lot that is going on in the economy. the company posted 36% revenue, 56% on the iphone itself, but the company making fear that that growth is not going to last, particularly for services. they are expecting a deceleration. the company not providing guidance, saying that for fiscal q4, there are going to be sick of supply constraints that are going -- going to be significant supply constraints that are going to hamper sales of the iphone and ipad. it will be interesting to see how all of that plays out. you are seeing that way on the shares. that brings us to later tonight. we are going to get ford earnings. ford has talked about the inability to get supply, and where analysts think sales will come in is pretty wide right now. the low wind is about $20 billion in sales, the high-end at about $36 billion.

they really have not been able to give clear guidance about this, saying that the supply chain constraints are real, and the frenzy of demand -- and despite the frenzy of demand for cars, they are really not able to keep up. we will get paypal earnings and facebook as well. keep an eye on facebook. we did get google after the bell yesterday. the advertising demand numbers were good here. facebook is a slightly different story. the mix of what alphabet gets versus facebook is very different here. facebook's results expected to be about 50% growth on some of those main add numbers -- main ad numbers. also keep an eye about facebook's push into new businesses. that could be a key driver. paypal also coming out after the bell. we did get to see earnings last night. stocks also seeing deceleration, particularly with regards to some of that cross-border transaction. tom: thanks so much. we will see that this afternoon after the fed show. remain -- romaine joining us

with a look at those equity markets. this is a joy for all of us at "bloomberg surveillance." he's been one of our hallmark guests through many years, going far back to the depths of bloomberg on the economy. we are thrilled to have him in the studio with us for the first time since this horrific natural disaster, john ryding of brean capital. how much agony does chairman powell have today in this press conference? is he overwhelmed by the pandemic? john: i hope not. nothing really in economic fundamentals have changed since the last meeting when they talked about talking about tapering the bond purchases. inflation has run hotter than the fed has expected since then, and in fact, the five-year average inflation and core inflation is running above the fed's 2% target. that was the whole flexible

average inflation targeting framework. the employment numbers have continued to rise. there's no approximately one unfilled job per unemployed person. that is something the st. louis fed president jim bullard, that is one indicator he has been championing. but you do have a rise in the delta variant infections. but what does federal reserve policy do for that? what we need to do, and admirably we have seen some governors in southern states come out and say this, is get the vaccination rates up. it is that simple. monetary policy cannot combat the economy. tom: on the planet, there's fingers left over of people with legit bank of england and fed experience like john ryding. his chairman powell speaking globally today, and is he speaking to central banks that are maybe not on the same page as he is? john: obviously there's a

massive global element to this, and other countries, a lot of of the haven't had access to the same vaccine supply. the u.s. has an abundance of vaccine supply relative to the number of people who are willing to take the vaccine, and that is a major issue. but the question is does the chairman give some signal on backpedaling on when they are going to start tapering back the purchases of bonds? as you have pointed out, and as jon across the way has pointed out, the 10 year yield has dropped 25 basis points since the fed gave a signal that it was talking about talking about tapering, and advanced its timeline for the first rate hike into 2023. so domestic considerations have to be the primary focus for the fed.

i thought about this. if the fed were to signal that it is less inclined to start tapering back its bond purchases, i think that would be a disaster for risk assets. it would be like suddenly saying the problems that we have with the delta variant, and they are significant, or forcing the fed to rethink the very slow renormalization of policy that i think they have signaled they were moving towards announcing perhaps in september. jonathan: do you think we are overly preoccupied, the fed is overly preoccupied with how the market might respond to all of this? do you think that is the case? john: we know the fed is always preoccupied with the market, particularly when the equity market takes a big decline. but we have the market that is just coming slightly off of record highs, and we have a bond market that, if you are worried about a bond market response, a mini taper tantrum come of the

tantrum will be from a 25 basis point lower yield than you were back at the june meeting. so i think that the fed has to show a little mettle here and say the variant is a concern. it is having an impact. but nevertheless, there is plenty of demand, and we know there is plenty of demand. look at yesterday's consumer confidence report with an increase households wanting to buy a car, people ready to buy major appliances. a lot of households are flush with cash. some still have troubles on rent, and that is a major issue that needs to be cleared. but that is a fiscal response. what is the feds responsibly? remember, the fed is easing. every month the fed is easing by printing their new $120 billion

of effectively electronic money to buy bonds. why are we continuing to ease? that is a key question. explain why we are continuing to ease, and what benefit is that providing an economy which is now running hot on inflation, where gdp later this week is probably going to come out around 8.5%. the entire cap around potential gdp growth is probably close by the middle of this year, as i think we will see with the gdp report. lisa: we have been talking about how treasury yields have fallen since the fed took a markedly more hawkish tone. could we see treasury yields rise if the fed does remain on hold in this meeting? john: you could. but to tom's point earlier, he said we haven't talked about re-you'll yields -- about real yields, and i congratulate tom for always bringing it back to

consolidation of real yields and inflation breakevens. he will pay me later. [laughter] the entire rally in the bond market has been in lower real yields. it has not been in lower inflation breakevens. the job of the fed is to anchor inflation at around 2%. i think that is too high, but that is the job of the fed get that is what they have set out to do. yields haven't fallen because the fed in the markets has better at that job. the fed is just responding slowly to an inflation story that is unfolding at a faster pace than they thought. tom: obligatory north end question now. jonathan: do you want to do it now? i think that is rude to do it at the end of the interview. tom: but it was a friendly. john: losing to the premier league champions who have players on the team who are paid more than probably --

jonathan: good to catch up with you. you know i could talk to you all morning. tom: from across the way. [laughter] jonathan: i am across the way. it could be quite interesting later, the d-word. mike we -- might we finally see some dissent at the federal reserve? tom: there are some research notes this morning that allude to that. you begin the conversation today. maybe michael mckee will be rude enough to begin that with that question. jonathan: last time we had that i think was september 2020, on the communication. they were on the same side. tom: i thought we had dissent in the last commercial break. jonathan: we often do on this program, as you know. coming up, joseph stiglitz, prize-winning economist at columbia university, professor of a can,. from new york city this morning -- of economics.

from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: with the first word news, i'm laura wright. a house committee investigating the attack at the capitol could subpoena former president trump's top allies. members of the panel made it clear that the former president's activities on january 6 are a central focus of their probe. yesterday, they heard dramatic testimony from four police officers who helped defend the capitol. congress is going back to the masks. they have reimposed mask wearing requirements for all lawmakers and others on the house floor. violators can be fined. several staffers have tested positive in recent days. second quarter sales beat estimates at mcdonald's. u.s. customers proved willing to pay higher prices at the fast food chain, and there were fewer pendant related closures in international markets. comparable store sales rose almost 41% globally from a year earlier. spotify added fewer users in the

three months through june that investors expected. the streaming giant blamed the pandemic for its second straight quarter of sluggish growth. spotify added 9 million monthly active users, bringing the total to 360 5 million. that fell short of the company's forecasts -- to 365 million. that fell short of the company's forecasts. a probe says that the swiss bank failed to monitor exposure while handling traits for archegos that generated little revenue. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i would say with with spec to inflation -- with with spec to

inflation, we are not in a dramatic different situation to other companies you talk to. we see shortages in semiconductors and the like, so we are battling that everyday. jonathan: larry culp of general electric, the chairman and ceo. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action on this fed decision day. equity futures up two points, up by 0.05% on the s&p 500. yields up to basis points. tom: up. jonathan: are you playing this game or not? boeing stock? tom: up. jonathan: thank you. up by 3.2%. good news for boeing stock and the people who work there. upside surprise, $16 billion. the stock up by 3.5% in pre-trading, citing and encouraging recovery to keep the workforce plans unchanged. they were cutting the workforce to about 130,000.

now we are going to keep it unchanged, roughly consistent at 140,000. good news for the people who work at the company and for this economy, too. tom: they are afraid of losing them over the long-term. david wilson with us in the heat of his earnings season. what do you have? dave: we are talking about companies that do the most business in china. you figure that with the chinese government cracking down on u.s. listed shares, that you would see declines in the u.s. companies that are dependent on the chinese market, but it is just not happening. it is something that liz ann sonders at charles schwab went to doubt any twitter post yesterday. -- at charles schwab pointed out in a post yesterday. if you look at the most percentage of sales in china, it is up 40%.

you haven't seen the china sales exposure index as it is called really come back to the pack, even with everything going on lately involving china. tom: too short a visit. do it longer tomorrow with amazon. liz ann sonders will of course mention the late martin zweig, who said don't fight the fed. always with the most important question that stops the press conference, michael mckee. is the market fighting the fed here? our market participants fighting chairman powell? michael: no, the market is going along with chairman powell that inflation is transitory. the question today is does the fed have any scope to try to change policy or change the way they talk about it. there are questions about rising risks to the economy. i brought along a chart for those of you who are visual learners. covid cases are going up, and inflation is going up, so are

their downside risks to growth, and other upside risks to inflation? goldman sachs thinks so. they cut their forecasts. the fed is focused on jobs, so where does that leave them? tom: do we get dot plots today? do we get statistics that help you answer questions? michael: no, we don't get any additional statistics or dot plots. we will basically be parsing the statement. the question is, what do they say about covid? what do they say about inflation? with inflation rising, and the last two statements, all they said was inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. but at congressional testimony week ago, jay powell said inflation will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating. if they put that in the statement, one question is does the market see that as a more hawkish signal. jonathan: we got a hint of that

in the news conference last time around. what you just mentioned was in the opening statement of the news conference. as far as i remember, i don't remember hearing the word transitory in that news conference at all. are you expecting a shift again? the market believes what we saw was the federal reserve chair shift away from using the keyword and focus asked the -- the t-word and focus more on the outlook. michael: the question is how long does transitory last. what does that mean? what are you talking about in terms of transitory, which is why he will probably try to stay away from that which is why you saw that new formulation when he talks to congress last week. lisa: one area we have gotten serious inflation has been asset prices. there was a story on the bloomberg highlighting research that the wealth gap has widened.

they pinpoint the fed actions as a big driver of this, based on how much asset prices have inflated. does this matter to the fed, the deleterious effects of some of their policies? michael: it matters, but it is a question of weighing what matters more. the fed argues, we saw vociferous argument in favor of this from the san francisco fed bank president recently, saying we are focused on getting minority unemployment down, and because we are doing that, it helps some people get richer, and we can't really do anything about that, so we have to let that happen to reach our wider goals for more people. that is kind of where they are at right now. they are willing to take that chance. tom: it is greek to me. let's do the latin. is this the most ex post fomc ever? michael: i won't say ever, but you go back to some of those raising rates a quarter-point at

a time, everybody knew what was going to happen. it is going to be more about the taper debate and how much jay powell says about how much they discuss this. tom: so this has got to be the day where you drop a bombshell. michael: i don't think they want to drop a bombshell in the middle of july, when volumes are down. tom: i think this is really important. everybody is half-asleep, waiting for september, and the answer is let's do it now. jonathan: if they start talking about this in a more significant way and start to evolve the language a little bit more, they've got to aggressively delink that conversation from any conversation about interest rates. that's probably the ultimate challenge right now because you know how market participants work. they are focused not on the first move. they are focused on the sequencing and what is next. what's afterwards? tom: ok. i am just trying to set up mike for an exciting question today. what is are betting that mckee gets the last question again? jonathan: i am pretty sure that mike goes at the end and then

gets ignored. the room or the time they played the elevator music over mike mckee at the end? i will look for that little bit later. mike mckee, looking forward to that coverage later. we will be covering that federal reserve decision for you. i will be dropping by, alongside you and lisa, working through what could be a boring news conference. let's hope it's not. a difficult time for the federal reserve. everything mike has just said, there are a whole list of excuses to take up on this week and not do much at all. tom: seriously, i think it is a changed conference from two or three weeks ago. jonathan: would you agree, lisa? lisa: yes, although i wonder, if they do remain on hold, whether yields actually rise. the market responds i find interesting. jonathan: that's the difficulty i've had. you can call the fed. you can call the data. can you call the market in response to the fed and the data? tends out by two basis points.

from new york city this morning, equity futures down about a point, -0.02%. tom, boeing stock, what is it? tom: up. dollar, up. [laughter] jonathan: a value add this morning. on tv come on radio, crude is positive. tom: nailed it. thank you.

in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's golo.com. ♪

>> this kind of economic strength, while it bodes very well, doesn't necessarily mean that corrections don't happen. [indiscernible] >> they are all using traditional models, but this has been a very nontraditional recession. >> we are already in that decelerating upward revision pace, and about half of the sectors or contribute into that right now. >> the era of 0% to 2% inflation is over, and as a result, we are going to have to get u