is working on a broad infrastructure deal, they have reached an agreement on what are called the major issues. in a news conference, house speaker nancy pelosi said the senate deal is good news. but she and her colleagues have not seen the agreement. rep. pelosi: we very much wanted to pass. we would like to see it, and we may have to have some discussion about it. but i cannot commit to passing something where i don't even know what it is yet. but i am hoping for the best. mark: majority leader chuck schumer sounding and optimistic tone, saying the chamber could hold a procedural vote on the deal as early as tonight. members of the congressional panel are urging u.s. corporation, including coca-cola and visa to pull their sponsorship of the 2022 winter olympics unless they are moved out of beijing. members of the congressional

executive commission on china says that unless the chinese government changes its stance towards hong kong and uighur muslims, those companies will be complicit in giving coverage to those policies. new york city will give out $100 to any resident who gets there first covid-19 vaccine. it's an effort to boost vaccination rates. the incentive will start on july 30, only 54% of people are fully vaccinated in new york city, which failed to reach its june goal for 5 million residents. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, i am matt miller, welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following him around the world yet count down to the fed. we are breathing -- previewing the decision and chair jay powell's news conference. we are also going to cover the bipartisan u.s. infrastructure deal and take a look at the stocks moving on the news in our stock of the hour. and we will discuss the state of the spac and ipo markets. kathleen smith of renaissance capital will be one of the first exchange traded funds. let's take a quick look at what's going on in the markets. not a lot of movement on the broader s&p right now. down only by 61 hundredths of 1%. it's more of again if you look

at the nasdaq. a lot of the big tech stocks are moving higher. apple is not and that's weighing out, having a barbell effect. the 10 year yield is edging up a little, as is the bloomberg dollar index. you could see the gain up. and of course, trading is a little lighter than usual, typically the traders will sit on their hands and wait to digest the release before they start to trade and the volume picks up in the afternoon through the press conference and beyond. so the rate decision is due out in less than one hour. all eyes are on inflation. here's what our guests had to say. >> it does look like the fed is going to talk a little bit about when they plan to taper. at the moment we expect this

will be fairly balanced. >> stay cool for now. as we look ahead, they will have enough data on the labor market side. >> the park -- they might be priced appropriately pre-i don't think the fed needs to push back. >> i have learned to not fight the fed. it's a losing battle. >> joining us is claudia sahm. thank you for joining us. what do you expect to hear from jay powell? a lot of people with whom i have been speaking have suggested that he will try to punt and hold off on making any big moves. claudia? i think today's meeting is going to be somber. it's going to be delta, delta, delta.

it's focused on what have we learned since the last meeting what we have learned is that we have a highly infectious variant of covid in a country that only half the people are vaccinated. matt: but it's not something that federal reserve policy -- that monetary policy can really affect, right? it's a scary key -- a scary story but there's not much you can do with rates. claudia: but the direct connection to what the federal reserve is weighing is the fact that the variant is creating an increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook. i would be surprised if they have changed their baseline for the outlook. but the uncertainty around the baseline is larger. we know that the fed and markets have told us that they are not happy with the uncertainty. when there is uncertainty, the fed proceeds with caution area -- caution. i expect delta to soften tapering talk. matt: it's a good point.

it reminds me that goldman sachs cut its growth forecast just a couple of days ago by one full percentage point for this quarter and the next. is it a case that -- this gives them a path to continue with $120 billion a month. what we hear from guests is why are they still spending $120 billion a month? that uncertainty is your answer. claudia: we have 7 million jobs to get back from before covid. we are a year and a half into this. we are nowhere near the fed achieving its dual mandate. by every indication the inflation we are seeing now is not going to last. it's not just that the fed has cover, i think the need to keep doing it. they have been telling us that they have a new framework and they are going to see this through. delta is reinforcing what we have already known, we are in a

very serious situation and we are not out of the woods. matt: let's talk about what transitory means because he just touched on inflation. we don't just talk to economists. we talked to ceo's who are running businesses and paying higher input costs and passing them on to customers. when i speak to the ceos, carmakers, infra structure builders, they all say this is going to last a while. we are not getting out of this right away. it's not going to go away until at least the end of 2022. so what does transitory mean to jay powell? claudia: i do want to set some context. we had a decade plus of low inflation. the profit motive was there all the time if businesses wanted to pass along prices. they couldn't do it. rcumstance with the economy opening up. we want to see our friends and

family and we only have so much vacation. you can always -- only spend a stimulus check once. but that moment is in likelihood going to pass unless something big changes. matt: what is transitory -- what is transitory mean to you? what does it mean to the fed? 4%, 5% increases for six months? a year? claudia: i am a well-trained fed economist so i won't put exact numbers or timelines on it. but transitory means this will not last. i think we are not going to see numbers like 5% into next year. that means prices would have to rise again and again i think we could see the stick. used cars are not staying at this level. but we have this push going month after month, it's hard to see.

and in the fundamental economy where workers don't have the bargaining power that they had, and relief is ending soon. i don't see it. but we should take it seriously. inflation does hurt people. i'm not trying to be flippant about this. matt: i understand what you're saying. we have inflation with 5% to 6% growth, that's not a massive problem. how long does the growth last? claudia: we are pushing out of the pandemic. you can only reopen the economy once. relief is unlikely to get renewed. we needed to bounce after last year. that was a horrible year. to have the growth that's above the growth we have seen for decades, something structural has to change. like the infrastructure package, the reconciliation package, two deliver.

but the $5 trillion in a year, that was to boost us out of the disaster. that can't be smooth sailing for years and years. matt: i feel like i know your view on how important is -- it is, give me your pitch on the infrastructure package. do the american people need another 3 trillion are $4 trillion in debt. claudia: yes. they do. markets are begging the federal government to borrow money. now is the time to borrow. costs are low. the payoffs are enormous. we have physical infrastructure in this country that's in desperate need of repair. we have climate change. we have parts of the country on fire. we have climate change investments. the last one that's very important was in the family plan, there's no better money that we could bend than investing in our next generation. these child benefits need to be extended.

the investments to early education and childcare, those will pay off. matt: it's great to get your insight. i hope we can get you back on again. that's claudia sahm. stay with us, we have our special report, the fed decides, that kicks off in about 20 minutes. coming up we are discussing the state of the ipo market with kathleen smith and renaissance capital. there etf will be one of the first to hold robinhood shares. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it's exactly what i set for a long time it's going to be. it's way overdone. people have -- it's just unwise from an investor standpoint. a lot of bad companies in my view have been taken to market and there's going to be a digestion period read --period. matt: that was martin franklin speaking to it yesterday. he's not the only one warning about these transactions. he has been for a while. there have been numerous people saying that the flood of new back -- new spacs creates questionable disclosures.

the appetite to go public is still strong. 250 ipo's have been priced in 2021. that's up more than 190%. kathleen smith is with us, the founding principle of renaissance capital to talk about this red-hot market. it looks like you guys have a ton of deals on your docket. in my right in reading that you have 18 to go over? kathleen: we have been at record levels of ipo pricing read this is something we have not seen in history area we are beyond what we saw in the internet bubble, we are out almost 100 billion now. matt: does that were you? kathleen: the best time is when investors are nervous about deals. we see these deals flying off the shelf. we want to see a proper amount

of three on the part of investors -- of worry on the part of investors. too many deals are getting done at very high prices, that's a concern. matt: what should we be looking for in the robinhood ipo. these nasdaq deals take a lot longer to trade than i'm used to from being on the floor. we are also seeing some bigger costs. is that what we need to look for with robinhood? kathleen: we are starting to see some pushback in the ipo market. if you look at the headlines and the number of deals, it's record exceeding. but the returns are not as strong as they could be. last night, there were four ipo's priced. three of the four have broken issue. there is some fear in the market. that's a good thing. i would not be looking at

robinhood saying it's up 50%. successful deals are ones that get allocated into the marketplace and begin trading at sustainable levels. i would be looking at this company is really leveraged to the stock market and crypto. if there's any pullback, you have to worry about robinhood. on the other hand, it's a fantastic brand that has had amazing growth area how -- growth. we are in a strong market and i think we will be strong interest compatible. matt: how does retail play into this? they want to give more of their syndicate or shares to retail investors than a typical ipo. kathleen: yes. that's more than most we have seen. that type of structure, offering shares to customers that we have seen on bloomberg, where they

offer drivers shares in the uber ipo. it should be no surprise that the drivers took cash. you do have that issue of how fast a robinhood customer may want to trade out of the shares they get. and additionally, the sword that cuts both ways. if the deal goes well, everyone is happy area if it goes poorly, you have a lot of unhappy customers. it's one of those things that's not a certainty. it creates more volatility around the ipo. matt: i remember very well the facebook ipo. it did not go well from the start. yet the stock is done incredibly well 10 years on. how key is the first day of trading to the volatility that you see in the following months? kathleen: it's not that

important except for the fact that you want to see the stock rise above that first day of trading. the approach that we take is that we are owning a basket of -- basket of these newly public companies which are held for number of years so that you get the real price discovery and you move beyond that inefficiency. and for those in these amazing companies that could grow to be major businesses once they are public. for a longer term investor, the best thing to do is to wait until ock settles and make some decisions based on the fundamentals. matt: it's great to get some time with you. kathleen smith, from renaissance capital. still ahead, we are checking on on how stocks tied to u.s. infrastructure are varying today after a bipartisan senate group says they have reached agreement on some details. this is bloomberg. ls.

this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg: it's. i am matt miller. it's time for the business flash. a look at the business stories in the news. we kick it off of pfizer. they plan to launch a study of a vaccine that targets the

coronavirus's delta variant. it explained for the surge of covert cases in the u.s. and elsewhere the first batch of delta focused vaccine shots have already been made. boeing has earned a profit for the first time in almost two years. that hints at a turnaround after one of the worst financial crises and the playmakers century long history. boeing has been in a slump caused by the pandemic but was also kicked off by crashes of its once best-selling 737 max plane. that is your bloomberg business flash update. another story that caught my eye, aston martin has more than quadrupled revenue. the carmaker ramped up sales of its first-ever sport-utility vehicle. this gorgeous baby is $188,000 dbx, feeding the average estimate from analysts.

it went into production last year, and made up more than half the deliveries in the first half. the company plans to introduce more derivatives of the model coming in one that's fully electric and one that's a hybrid. it also began shipping the new valkyrie hypercard, that's a million-dollar car. not super street of all -- streetable. a bipartisan group of negotiators says they have an agreement on u.s. infrastructure . procedural voting may start tonight. jay wilson is here for some of the implications for the stock market. jay: martin, marietta, materials, these kind of go together because they tried at -- they have construction aggregates, talking stone, sand,

gravel, asphalt, concrete. if you think about where this plan is going in terms of spending. we don't know all the details of the final compromise. but we do know that bridges were said to be the biggest component , at least early on. that scenario, where you need a lot of companies provide, vulcan materials noted that roughly half of the shipmrnyd -- shipments and aggregates are made, certainly this is for highways and airports, they are a part of the infrastructure deal. beyond that, this is a group that has shown strength on anticipation that you would get some kind of agreement area you have a look at a broad index of materials, focusing in on those stocks area you are seeing a bit

of her surgeons. it's not just this company there. you think united rentals which has equipment and even caterpillars part of that. matt: that would be one of my first six. -- first picks. we could get more on this deal and that could move the stock more. dave wilson, thank you. our special report is coming up next read i'm sure that's why you are tuning in now. the fed decides as the decision looms. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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