shown that if you get enough fiscal stimulus, you can get a strong economy. >> they are all using models that are traditional models, but this has been a very nontraditional recession. >> monetary policy cannot combat the economy. >> looking opportunistically for a selloff is a good idea. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it's the day after the fed, and all is quiet. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up seven on the s&p, almost 0.2%. a snoozer of a fed meeting, for

some people at least. tom: i know michael mckee, that was his analysis as we ended the show yesterday. what i see within the week of back and forth, the 10-year gilts, 1.27% -- the 10 year yield, 1.27%. there's just some angst out there, the vix 25 -- out there of vix 25, right now 17.5. jonathan: didi global, let's frame this. didi global now posited by 16.9% after surging 30% of the back of a dow jones story that indicated the company was considering going private. then the company itself coming out and saying no, that's not true. this stock has been all over the place, and it has been the poster child for what is developing in beijing. tom: i don't have a lot of wisdom to put in here other than

clearly, as lisa mentioned in the last hour, chinese authorities have stepped in the last two days and begin to -- and began to ruffle, as government officials do. lisa: perhaps chinese officials won't go too far with their regulatory measures to pair back some of the more aggressive tech areas. again, it highlights how uncertain the field is for data. there's a fight for data. chinese government officials want control over it. they are concerned that the u.s. could have access to it. they are concerned about ipo's in the u.s., and frankly vice versa, and this is going to be a lasting fame. jonathan: that story is good -- lasting theme. jonathan: that story is going nowhere. not much to talk about. it is a snoozer in the equity market. yields are higher, up three or four basis points. tom: look at the euro-dollar. jonathan: a stronger euro,

advancing 0.3%. tom: six months ago, eight months ago, the 4400 even print on spx was unimaginable. jonathan: i agree with you. dear end median right now, 4300 from the -- year end median right now, 4300 from the strategists we survey. we are north of that already. we put scott minerd on the spot, didn't we? he said over the next 12 months or so. tom: still, you've got minerd saying 5000. i'm still triple leveraged all-cash. jonathan: lisa is waiting patiently. let's get to lisa. lisa: i'm drinking my tang and really loving this. what we are looking for today could give a little more drama to the fed meeting. jobless claims are really coming into focus.

all jobs data are taking on new sniffing and's after chair powell said we have not made significant further progress. we have made progress. we are not there yet. it is because of the jobs numbers. they want to see big headline prints. is it because there's were nude volatility around the jobs readings we are getting? at 1:00 p.m., the all interesting seven year note auction. the u.s. selling if you do billion dollars of these notes. these tend to be a more -- selling $52 billion of these notes. these tend to be more volatile. why are bond yields so low? why have they gone lower after the previous fed meeting? he didn't say he had a clear answer, except for technicals for other things that we might not understand. after that, amazon reporting second quarter earnings, the last of the big tech behemoths.

questions about pressure from labor unions, saying please raise the wages, pressure on their cloud computing unit to see a much they are competing. and going forward, any regulatory pressure like we saw out of facebook, and that could potential he curb their growth which is why those shares are lower in premarket trading. jonathan: here's a quote from chairman powell on what is happening in the bond market. "i don't think there's a real consensus on what explains the move between the last meeting in this meeting." this is what he had to say on the labor market. "i'd say we have some grounds to cover on the labor market side. i think we are some ways away from having substantial progress towards the maximum employment goal." that was kind of the headline in the middle of the news conference. tom: it was. you are absolutely right. what is great about this debate is there's a chart that is crystal clear. we are not going to show it now, but there it is, labor

participation just isn't back to valentine's day two years distant. jonathan: let's get to luke kawa on that, ubs strategist and former bloomberg reporter. i don't remember him, though. tom: not with that hair. jonathan: you can have a dig back at on later. let's start with the progress in the labor market. it is highly dependent on how the supply side of the economy responds in the coming months. what are you in the team looking for? luke: that supply response is one reason why the sequencing we need to see is still a ways off. they've highlighted essentially september in q4 as the time when labor supply might begin to be unlocked, so to speak. if you are thinking about it from that perspective, you just don't get that september data until past september. so some of these more aggressive tied lines -- aggressive timelines for signaling the

beginning of tapering, you have to push those back a little. that's why it was pretty useful to see that the things making the fed more hawkish are down the road, and right now the labor market needs more healing. tom: the only reason we let you go to ubs is you took three logins and 12 bloomberg screens with you, and what you use them for is the correlations of the markets. are these normal markets, or are they correlated within the asset allocation model? luke: certainly they are all correlated into varying extent -- correlated and two very -- related, and to varying extents they are going to show. there's perhaps less optimism

than average for this time in the cycle. clearly, 10 year yields are the stand out. quite frankly, it is not even close. there is a feeling that you do have to respect the bond market. jay powell said he doesn't quite know, so i'm not going to have the hubris to try to find a clear answer there, but you have to say you can't write it off, but on the other hand, you can't be the full author of your asset allocation and what you're seeing out there. what we do see is a fair degree of cyclical strength and things like commodities and overall equity prices mind a lot of what you're getting from corporate guidance that does paint a very different picture about the economy we are going to have over the next 6, 12, 18 months and what the bond market is currently signaling. lisa: what is your change to asset allocation following this earnings season, as we wrap it up with amazon later today? luke: i would say there has been no immediate changes, so to speak, regarding asset

allocation, but a few things have stuck out that paint a start contrast between what executives are telling us and what the bond market is telling us. the bond market is telling us we have a short window for growth for the fed crushes both right tail inflation outcomes and right tail growth outcomes. executives are telling us that it seems like we have a pretty long run my -- long runway for above trend activity to continue. you might start to get hints of this in the gdp report released later this morning, just the inventory rebuild process is going to be absolutely massive and persistent. essentially, shortages are what are paving the way for having a longer runway for growth, because you need to make the capex to unlock more production downstream. you need production downstream to meet demand. all companies are saying is that we need to do this, but we understand this is going to take a very long time. it is so interesting to see

companies that have rebuilt inventories to a certain extent are saying that this is our competitive advantage. this is the way we can keep growing market share and topline , not building inventories as a sign the flagging into demand -- a sign of flagging end demand. those are but are going to lead as we move from pricing in this peak growth environment, these kind of quasi-fears about how much delta will delay the normalization, to what kind of rate we sell to on the other. that is come to be a pretty strong runway we think is far superior to what we had coming out of the financial crisis. jonathan: how would you characterize your current situation? are you a happy manchester united fan or an unhappy yankees fan? luke: i'm still a depressed toronto maple leafs fan, first and foremost. but happy -- very happy. jonathan: is that basketball,

tom? lisa: can we point out he has an american flag behind him? jonathan: is that american football, tom? tom: no, hockey. jonathan: luke kawa, ubs asset allocation strategist, thank you. tom, are you disappointed after the fed decision yesterday? did you not get what you wanted out of it? luke: frankly -- tom: frankly, i thought it was a pretty successful meeting. i thought chair powell started off shaky and improved as the meeting went on. jonathan: up seven on the s&p. we'll get to the bottom of this and work out what is wrong. yields up by three, 1.2676%. you got a long weekend, haven't you? tom: i'm taking off tomorrow just to get ready for "ted lasso." you haven't watched "ted lasso" yet. you got to watch the first season. jonathan: it's going to be ok. we are up 0.2%.

this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: the u.s. senate has voted to move ahead with that infrastructure package that happened just hours after a bipartisan group of senators and president biden reached an agreement on a $550 billion spending plan. lawmakers expect the final passage to last into the weekend and possibly even next week. fed chair jerome powell says there is still some ways to go before the fed starts reducing massive support for the u.s. economy. powell spoke to reporters after fed policymakers kept interest rates near zero. they also maintained their bond buying program. the coronavirus surge is hampering corporate america's plans to get back to normal. google says it will push back its official office return to mid-october, and workers at its campus will be required to be vaccinated. lyft is returning its return date to february.

didi global is denying reports it is considering going private. dow jones said the ride-hailing giant igo private in order to appease chinese authorities who have cracked down on the tech sector. before today, shares were down 37% since it listed on the new york stock exchange on june 30. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

chair powell: the committee

continued to discuss the progress towards our goals. we also considered considerations about how we might be adjusted if economic conditions change. jonathan: good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action in your equity market. a quiet one for the s&p. unchanged through much of this morning, positive 0.2%, up eight points so far. yields are higher by three basis points to 1.2643%. euro stronger, approaching $1.19 again. crude, wti $72.64, up 0.35%. tom: on dxy, a 91 handle there would be of note. we haven't mentioned amazon. we've got important earnings. jonathan: coming up a little bit later.

and a headline on citi, reinstating the mask guideline in offices after the cdc update. i do wonder who is going to follow here, not on the mask mandate. it is the things they do have a little bit of flexibility on. return to office plans. i wonder how flexible they will be about that and whether that gets pushed out a little more. tom: we have seen it already. i agree with you. if i am a business, i want to get this fixed now, so now is thursday and friday. jonathan: i'm working out what on earth they mean because some are still struggling with that, and i'm looking to apply with that. many around this country just don't know. they are still trying to work this out. where they do have flexibility is returned to office, return to the city. i wonder what the messaging sounds like through the summer now, through august and september. tom: is it the same in london? jonathan: in terms of what, the mac mandate?

that's the mask mandate? -- the mask mandate? tom: confusion. jonathan: no, i think things are just opening up, and the cases are moving in the right direction. tom: not much has changed in washington either. jack fitzpatrick dives into the conversation. i guess you had an 18 hour yesterday. what does it look like today? how can someone vote against bridges and tunnels? jack: well, it is an expensive proposition, a 550 billion dollar measure, so you will get some republicans opposing it. but they got 67 votes in favor of the procedural vote yesterday, so really today in the next few days is unclear when we are going to see the text. i don't think they have to file the text and put out every detail until at least friday, but today and the next couple of days, they will run that by

everybody they can run it by in the senate, make sure everybody who is ok with that first procedural vote is actually planning to vote on passage, and really just trying to wrap up the loose ends. but it does look like this deal is a real deal, and they are just really turning the bullet points into legislative text and going through all of the mechanisms of taking the procedural votes. tom: to friday, to the sunday talk shows, let's even go to monday morning, will various senators know which projects are in that bill? jack: probably not. in the near future, i don't think it is going to be very clear. there is a process of earmarking money through authorization bills. so some lawmakers feel confident they will get funding for particular things they want, but a lot of the money that has been negotiated for this bill is

based on formulas, so then it goes to the executive branch. the executive branch has to figure out the absolute specifics. what they have been talking about lately is the amount. how much goes to highways, to transit. i would guess probably most lawmakers don't know yet how that is going to affect their constituents. they might not know for a little while. a lot of this money doesn't go out for a number of years. this is sort of a better part of a decade spending plan, so there is still uncertainty in terms of how the politics work for this person's district versus that person's district. jonathan: where is the biggest -- lisa: where is the biggest pushback likely to come from, republicans or progressive democrats? jack: it depends on how it is tied to the next bill. there are republicans who don't like that this infrastructure bill that republicans are supposed to like is tied to a 3.5 trillion dollar measure.

there are progressives who might not want to vote for this if they think that next measure is in danger. so it is coming from both sides ideologically for different reasons because both sides have complaints about how this has or hasn't been tied sufficiently to the next big bill. i know that is a complicated answer, but that is really the challenge going forward. they can't pass this with enough democrats unless the democrats get their bill, so the fact that the democrats are doing that is not popular among republicans. so there are issues on both ends of this. lisa: it is may be a complicated answer, but it is exactly where people's minds are. this is a just a $550 billion plan. this is really a $4.1 trillion package, including the reconciliation bill that i believe bernie sanders is working on. is senator sanders post to finishing or releasing what parts of that look like? jack: in the near future, we

should see them move ahead with the basic framework. the way they cast these partisan measures without republican support in the senate is basically a two-step process. you put out a budget resolution with the basic numbers of what committees are supposed to work on, and then later, when they get that bill out, you have to vote on the bill as well. so before they leave for their recess at the end of next week, they want to not only have passed this infrastructure bill, but also voted on that budget portion, that first measure to set the stage for that later $3.5 trillion bill. it will take a while to actually pass a $3.5 trillion bill, but in the near future, the plan for democrats is to take the vote to set the stage, make sure they can get a majority to vote for that and get things moving on the even bigger bill. jonathan: jack, thank you. good to catch up. bloomberg reported down in washington, d.c. the masks are back at citigroup.

this is from the bloomberg finance team. citi going back to requiring employees, regardless of vaccination status, to don masks when they are in the office. that is according to a person familiar with the matter, in-line with some of the advice coming from the cc this week. best ecdc this week. i -- the cdc this week. tom: i am practicing. is this where we are going? jonathan: it looks good on you. tom: is the nation ready for this? jonathan: i wonder to what degree this is going to spread, the decisions. some companies wait for the advice that is coming from the cdc. other companies try to get ahead of it and they institute more stringent controls. i think the most important conversation are the vaccine requirements we are starting to see from the federal government and elsewhere, and from private organizations in this company. tom: i get is clicking in. lisa: it clicks in really, when you get children eligible for

the vaccine. jonathan: that would be a headline, if you see the date pushed back for the return to school. your equity market up five, advancing a little more than 0.1%. on tv come on radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance -- on tv, on radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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♪ jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. in the equity market, positive a little more than 0.1%. on the nasdaq, -0.2%. on the russell comedy small caps up 0.9% -- the russell, the small caps up 0.9%. to what extent has a full-service sector recovery been delayed? what does it mean for the economy? what does it mean for this market? in the bond market, your 10-year right now is 1.2 9 -- is 1.2559%. if we don't get the supply-side response in this economy any soon, it is going to get harder to call this bond market and to

call this labor market. that's where i want to finish, and the labor market. switch of the board and get to the employment to population ratio in america. you can take a chart of this. you will have a gap lower. you will have a little bit it -- a little bit of improvement, and that it will stall. what we need to see is a supply-side response on several fronts, and what many people anticipated is for that to start to develop in september and heal as the year grows older. the issue people have now, given the development on the covid side of things, has that been delayed? to what degree? tom: 60% back to where we were, i would suggest 7 million jobs. i think time has to move on. all of this has happened very quickly. we are all impatient for q2 of next year. jonathan: we need time, but it is not a demand problem. so what is the fed's role in all of this? that is going to be the interesting conversation for the

next several weeks. it is a tapered debate. is that exclusive? is that the same story? i don't think it is. tom: my enthusiasm for the private enterprise of america from the big companies like amazon right on down to small businesses, that is what i would focus on. lisa is right to keep bringing up the school issue as well because september is absolutely crucial. some of the things we are talking about through the week. let's get you some movers and bring in romaine. romaine: let's focus on the transportation sector this morning. uber shares taking a leg down after that report that softbank is shopping to billion dollars worth of shares at goldman sachs. that report is out of bloomberg. there's a separate report at cnbc saying that they were specifically shopping those shares to cover losses on didi. didi shares were down about 50% prior to the last couple of days. those did rally 10% yesterday,

up about 17% in the premarket. another bloomberg report saying that that company might be considering going private. some of the dip buyers jumping and just in case. in the transportation sector, a different story out of ford. we did get earnings that were pretty good. the concern is they are losing market share. market share in the u.s. down below 11%. it was 15% a year ago. they've got a huge pipeline coming. all of those electric vehicles i know you had your eye on. all of that is in the pipeline, and some of those supply chain issues, they are working through it. those models will be on the lot sometime this year. might be able to get your hands on one, tom. just another couple of names. let's look at qualcomm. the company saying it is also dealing with supply chain issues and is managing to diversify away from just the smartphones. this is a company that has really risen and fallen based on the smartphone cycle.

it said it has managed to move into consumer electronics. investors seem to like what they hear. they did not like what they heard from facebook yesterday. that company saying it is not going to last. it cited regulatory headwinds and new restrictions by apple on its platform to restrict how data is collected. those shares down 3.5%. those were out of the big stories over the last 12 hours. in about eight hours, we are going to get amazon, the fourth largest company in the world, knocking on the door of a $2 trillion market cap. stay tuned for that later tonight. tom: thank you so much. the movers with romaine bostick. is harry kane a mover? jonathan: i don't know yet. i think that would be the big signing of the transfer window for the spurs they hold onto him. just to reiterate, tom and i don't drive. lisa: that is breaking news? jonathan: there's only one person on this team that drives, and it is lisa. it is not tom and me. lisa: i don't know how else you

get up to tupper lake. jonathan: we need to work this out. what we are waiting for is the autonomous driving vehicle to come along. tom: i don't buy it. you're going to get me going, jon. i saw a tesla article the other day that the auto driving thing got screwed up because of a yellow traffic light. seriously. jonathan: that's not good. we need some progress. then we can have a subscription. lisa: you have to try. tom: david rosenberg the last hour. michael schumacher joins now. he knows where they play good hockey, and he throws it into his note this morning. on ago and far away, there was a ccm five stripe. you say this is a yield that is going to look like a ccm five stripe hockey stick. discuss that, the nirvana out to a higher yield. michael: especially when you

consider the idea of real yields in the u.s. being -1.15% or something crazy, it makes very little since. real yields at this negative level are remarkable. it has happened only a couple of times. the last time was before the taper tantrum. you got to ask yourself, what is the economic backdrop today versus 12 months ago? we could talk about covid case counts going up, but it is still pretty hard to dispute that things look a lot better now than they did then. yields are much more negative in the yield space. we think this is a bit crazy, frankly. high inflation should push up nominal yields. real yields probably follow suit. we think the stage is set for yields to climb. however, i've said that before, on the last couple of times i've been wrong. we think it is going to take a while, three to four months for this move. i think it is a november to december type of scenario. jonathan: we need to understand why they went lower in the first place. why did they? michael: a bunch of things came

together. yesterday is a good example. why did yields dropping the last hour or two of trading yesterday? one of these arcane things, investors adding duration before month's end tomorrow. but i suspect a bigger thing going back to the june fed meeting is the fed really gave the green light for people. they said we are not going to do anything for a while. we will sit here, maybe put a mention of taper in the statement, but we won't actually change policy for quite some time. so a lot of investors out there look at the yield backdrop and say it is super low. i have to do something. i've that to pick up a few pennies in front of the steamroller. what can i do? i can buy longer maturity, longer duration bonds. maybe i can sell some options. but the fed really put that back and play in june. we think that was perhaps the big driver. on top of that, overseas flows have been pretty strong. jonathan: one thing that always confuses me, when people take

the price of the bond market and say this is what the market is looking for, inflation x percent over whatever time period. some people by inflation protection not with conviction, but as a hedge. i just wonder whether we misread what markets are actually telling us behind the motives of the people making these decisions. michael: i think another way to consider that is does the inflation market that we trade, tips, swaps, etc., is that really predictive of future inflation? i would say not very well. you could make the point that quite a few investors and other players out there buy inflation protection because they need to, not because they want to. that is probably the case again. in terms of short-term market dynamics, it can have a fairly big effect. i think another way to consider this question is do forward rates in nominal really predict future actual yields, and the

answer consistently from academic after academic has been no. if we take the analysis today, the former treasury rate is about one point 20%. does anyone think that is an actual predictor of where it will be? i think not. lisa: what is the trigger to get real yields less negative off of the lows we are seeing? michael: i think a few things have to come together. probably more strength out of the labor market. thinking about some of the comments chair powell made yesterday, very few specifics. a lot of generalities. one thing that came through is more and more strength out of the labor market. there's been a lot of concern and speculation perhaps that come september, maybe october, the labor market would be much stronger in the u.s. than it has been. if that happens, that probably pushes yields up quite a bit. if instead we get eight it -- we get a reaction where covid cases have worsened, seems to becoming almost endemic, that would send

things pretty low. going out two to three months, you are really going to see the supply chain start to move in the labor market share up. jonathan: that is the key question for everyone right now. mike schumacher, you're real you'd would on the tenure, negative one point 17%. just briefly, after rolling over quite aggressively, gold starting to wake up just a little bit. we are starting to see some movement in gold in a way that we didn't going into june. tom: up $30, $1832. we heard about the affection for tangible assets. that would be gold. jonathan: -1.17 on the real ten year. . i lisa: lisa: spent a lot of time yesterday thinking -- lisa: i spent a lot of time yesterday think about this.

balance sheets basically doubled in 2020. you have to think, where is that money going? if it can't go into things and services, it is going to go into assets, and a big asset, treasuries. this is really it. i don't really see what is going to change that dynamic. tom: the five-year inflation-adjusted yield, are we mentally ready for dow 10,000, which would be a -2% yield? the dow is a benchmark. jonathan: you threw me there. tom: the dow is the soul of the nation. you've got real yield, -2% yield. that is equivalent to dow 10,000. jonathan: up next, deutsche bank's chief u.s. economist. tom: he looks at the dow. jonathan: i bet he doesn't. [laughter] from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. that $550 billion infrastructure package has cleared its first barrier on capitol hill. the senate voted to begin consideration of the bill. 17 republicans joined senate democrats and independents in voting for the measure. lawmakers expect a final passage to last into the weekend and possibly even next week. the new chair of the federal trade commission is vowing to return the agency's trust busting roots. she says she plans to use the ftc to take on those that are crushing competition. china may be preparing for a period of prolonged tension with washington. beijing's new ambassador to the u.s. is a veteran diplomat known for pushing back against western criticism. they most recently served as

vice foreign minister. he said he would work to put u.s.-china relations back on track. it is one of the most anticipated listings of this year. robinhood raised $.1 billion in an ipo priced at the low-end of the market range. that gives the company a market value of just under $32 billion. robinhood shares began trading today. pro basketball star kai re-irving has some harsh words for nike, which makes his signature sneaker -- kai re-irving -- kyrie irving has some harsh words for nike, which makes his signature sneaker. he said the shoe is trash, and that he had nothing to do with the design. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is certainly better than it was, and i expect it will

continue to get better as we move further away from the disruptions caused by the pandemic. but fundamentally, the only way to solve this problem is that we need to make more semiconductors in america. jonathan: good to catch up with gina raimondo, the u.s. commerce secretary. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action this thursday morning as we wait for jobless claims in america about 42 minutes away. equity futures up six, advancing a little more than 0.1%. yields higher by two or three basis points to 1.26% on tens. euro-dollar positive 0.2%. crude oil, wti $72.79. this is for you, tom keene. didi global up by 17%. this one surged by 30%, 40% after it was reported this company was considering going private. then the company itself denied it, and we rolled over hard.

tom: bloomberg summarizing the story right now, didi shares surge on report that it is going private. trying to unravel all that is going on. jonathan: we are done. good. tom: well, i don't know. jonathan: i know you don't want to cover this story. tom: i know it is an amazon equivalent, but that's where we are. lisa: i think it is interesting. jonathan: thanks, lisa. tom: david wilson here to save us. a little spat within the family. always cheerful on growth and value, but with a geographic bent. dave: i will do my best. drew dixon at upper bridge capital looked at the u.s. versus europe in terms of valuation, specifically forward price-earnings ratios. jonathan: interesting -- tom: interesting. dave: what he did was broke down

the u.s. and europe into growth and value using the russell index for the u.s. and the euro stocks total market index for europe. when you run the numbers, you find out that growth stocks here in the u.s. and in europe are pretty much the same in terms of their valuation based on forward pes. the reason why u.s. stocks historically have been more expensive than european shares arguably comes down to what is happening on the value side of the equation. something like 18 times projected profit for the russell 1000 value index. looking at the euro stoxx counterpart, it is more like 12 times. so you've got about a 50% gap between the two. that in large measure explains why that disparity exists. tom: really important, folks. you and i have talked about this. value always needs a catalyst. what is the value catalyst to get cheap europe up to that multiple? tom: that is the -- dave: that is a challenge.

what is going to turn things around? the u.s. economy has been growing faster than the european economy. you still have the disparity in terms of the coronavirus out there. so there are a lot of reasons why this exists, but it has persisted over time, whereas if you look at the growth stocks, devaluations have kind of come into range with each other more recently. lisa: how much does this matter if the backdrop is really driven by monetary policy, by the shift in delta variant? how predictive have this metrics been? dave: there's no doubt it's part of the mix. all you have to do is look at this year's performance for growth and value on both sides of the atlantic. you can sort of see that. that is really the issue as much as anything. people are kind of recognizing what is going on. investors are thoroughly discarding european value. that has been the issue, and it

is why the gap is what it is when it comes to these forward p/e ratios. lisa: tom keene has been saying all morning we need to do more didi, and this is one of the more important stories of the day. jon raised a point earlier today, saying that this has renewed significance because investors in the united states and europe are looking at the likes of didi as part of a subset of ridesharing companies, and that basically, this becomes a part of a basket of companies that people invest in if shares plunge or if they rise. there is a contagion mechanism within that. are we seeing that? what are you hearing from investors on that point? dave: one thing you can say definitely is that there is a link in terms of didi and uber. late yesterday, we reported goldman sachs put up a block of 2.1 million shares of uber. cnbc then reported that it was sold by japan's softbank to

offset a loss on its stake in didi. when you put it together, there is certainly that relationship. it is not like you have enough ridesharing companies for a big global basket, but there is a relationship between them as represented by what appears to be that softbank sale. tom: thank you so much. what david brings up, and i have talked about this, the western banks are all involved in these discussions. jonathan: absolutely. on dave's point, isaac it is really important you don't sell what you want in these moments. you sell what you can. i've landed on from mohamed el-erian over the years, and he reflect on his time when he would go to investors and asked them about something happening in mexico, and they would say yeah, we are selling chile, and he would turn around and say, why are you doing that? they would say, we've already taken the hit on something like mexico. chile is still doing ok. that is the problem people have,

the contagion risk and bunnies trying to get ahead of the contagion risk. this can snowball pretty quick a. i know a lot of people in fixed income are super focused on asian credit and how this starts to bleed. it is just the beginning. keep an eye on it. see what is happening and keep your eye on how this spreads, the contagion mechanism for something like this that starts verio idiosyncratic -- that starts very idiosyncratic and then starts to bleed out. tom: that was the pendulum of snowballs. you sound like you for a moment. lisa: do i sound like you? [laughter] i think that sounds like a rational approach to what we are seeing over in china. the regulatory risk is a big black box. we don't know what the chinese authorities' tolerance to a selloff really is. especially as people seek to diversify in a low yield world, you do have to think that there will be some trickle effect, and

it could be significant as fit is prolonged. jonathan: the biggest waiting, -- the biggest weighting, alibaba. number two, tencent. tom: this is a really important point, how em visibility and the mix of eem has really changed from the certitude we had 15 years ago. what i would suggest is the compounding yield in the triple leveraged all-cash fund is snowballing. jonathan: i am not saying it is going to explode. i am just saying those are the kinds of things people are looking at right now. that's all. lisa: can i just say, you think i am the gloomy one? i am not the one in triple leveraged all-cash. that is a pretty bearish one, i've got to say. and you don't even drive. jonathan: neither do i, lisa. [laughter] lisa: fair. tom: three different judges in

three different courts. jonathan: geoffrey yu, bny mellon strategist, joining us shortly. advancing a little more than 0.1%. 1.26% on tens. heard on radio, seen on tv, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

and there you have it -

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>> unless they want to start buying equities or putting on cheerleader outfits, i am not sure that the fed is going to stand by. >> some of the more aggressive timelines for signaling the beginning of tapering and perhaps starting that, you have to push those back a little. >> monetary policy cannot combat the major forces in the economy. >> we have shown that if you given a fiscal stimulus, you can get a strong economy. >> having some cash to deploy and looking for selloffs is a good idea. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.