>> they want to start eyeing equities -- start buying equities, i'm not sure the fed is going to stand by. >> there are consequences of the fed. the banking system is potentially awash in reserves. >> what is most important in the market right now is the labor market data. >> having the cash and looking opportunistically for selloffs is a good idea. >> this is what we need to be attuned to heading into the second half of the year. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: let's get you to the weekend. live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. together with kailey leinz. tom back with us on monday. front and center through the morning, amazon. lisa: the idea that they were

looking forward to revenues suspending due to how much people are going to use their platforms, and came in lower than expectations going forward. the idea is what happens post-pandemic? do people revert to shopping elsewhere? what does that mean for some of the darlings in the market? jonathan: that stock is down by 6.5% on amazon this morning. once amazon is done and we are through the tech week, i'm done with earnings. let's wrap them up. wages, price pressure, that's the story for the year ahead. lisa: these companies set the tone with respect to that. amazon accounting for such a massive portion of the labor market itself, you do think they set the tone, and the tone is a confusing one, and one of deceleration, if not an outright slowdown. jonathan: here's the story from the other side of the world, from china. the decision being made in the united states, according to reuters. the sec has stopped processing

registrations of u.s. ipos and other sales of securities by chinese companies while at kraft's new guidance for disclosing to investors the risk of a new regulatory crackdown by beijing. that is the story of the last hour. kailey: the post-didi saga continues. the drama that has unfolded since then is really quite remarkable. it still has not stopped. we also got news out of china this morning that they are going to root out some of what they call illegalities in the ride-hailing sector, the kind of monopoly power there. that is really weighing on didi and premarket trading. the adrs of some other companies are really under pressure because it is unclear what this regulatory environment looks like right now. jonathan: didi down by 5.9% in early trading now. lisa: geoff yu really interesting yesterday on china, and how they perhaps were not expecting as severe, good response. given the response this morning, i wonder what their message was and how much they will double

down on some of the regulatory curbs of some of these industries. jonathan: just so slow on this front. i'm surprised by it. we can talk more about it. we are -0.6% on the s&p 500. a bit of de-risking, a defensive posture to into the trading week. yields in three basis points. euro slightly stronger, reclaiming a $1.19 handle. lisa: this week we saw the biggest dollar softening for a week going back to may, happening quietly in the background. don't know what to make of that in terms of long-term trends. an interesting point in an otherwise steady week in terms of gains. today we are expecting a whole slew of data. u.s. june pce, the key inflation metric that the federal reserve watches. we have personal income and spending data. a lot of people will be focused on spending. how much are people ramping up deployment of their massive cash towards that they have -- cash

hordes that they have? is the pace going to continue, or is there a reason why consumers are saving as much as they are? we might get more insight in that at 10 a.m., and that has to do with confidence. how much confidence to people have that the economy will continue to accelerate or at least offer them the opportunity to earn bigger wages and get jobs? u.s. july university of michigan sentiment, the key indicator a lot of people are watching, inflation expectations. the idea that consumer inflation expert patients can drive the actual incidents of inflation, it can affect people's purchases of things. we saw this in the gdp report, that the increase of certain prices has hampered the buying of certain products. this could be potentially a drag. it was a drag on the gdp report we got yesterday. how much is this going to be a theme through the rest of the year? at 8:30 p.m., the fed's lael brainard, she's not fed chair, but she may be.

fed chair jay powell is likely to be the next fed chair as well. however, lael brainard has been pinned as the potential successor should president biden choose to switch things up. she's thinking of rebuilding the post-pandemic economy. i want to hear her political intonation as she tries to addition -- tries to petition to get that role, but also what she will say about tapering from raising rates, because perhaps they are a little too connected for the fed's comfort. jonathan: they've got to aggressively de-link that. lael brainard could take one of the vice chair spots, and perhaps that would appease some of the democrats and the party. lisa: and you wonder, given that back drop, whether her words will take new weight. going forward, all said speak may be up -- all said speak maybe a little more interesting given that chair powell sort of punted to them.

jonathan: i will let you run back to the deskjonathan: because david jones of bank of america has something to say, that once we start talking about it, no one else is going to get to speak. david jones, bank of america director of global investment strategy, you are looking for stagflation lite, or something like it is the year progresses. can you walk me through the framework for thinking about the world right now? david: there are a lot of crosscurrents going on right now. it is a little hard to summarize this in a neat package, but i think stagflation light is a good way to do so. we are looking for slower growth in the second half of the year. one of the indicators of this has been china. china has been leading the world throughout the cycle. they were the first into lockdown, the first out of lockdown. they were the first to see the reflation trade, first to see value outperform growth, first to see the rates really come off.

now you have china again with growth concerns and some stimulus as well. lisa: just to build on that point, there were some reports out of china this morning. xi jinping was speaking, saying that the chinese economy does have its potential advantages, but that things do seem to be slowing somewhat substantially. does this mean lower but elevated growth, but does it -- or does it mean we could be facing a delicate balance where some of the progress is threatened, and we could even go backwards? david: our expectation is that growth is going to be strong, just not as strong as the first half. but you always have to throw in these conditions. the big condition out there is delta and the spread. the rest of the world are all reacting to the same forces. that is this great unknown of growth and the virus. we do think that second-half growth is going to be slower. we think that even without the

delta virus, that is where past peak growth is for the u.s. consumer. so china is reacting to that, and the u.s. is reacting to that as well. we also think inflation is going to be higher and more persistent than people think. some of this is also virus related. there's sort of these rolling blackouts and lockdowns that affect the supply chain and the labor market. those are going to continue. then there are other secular forces as well pushing inflation higher. so we think the outcome is going to be more stagflationary, and the inflation allocation has to reflect that. kailey: with the 10 year yield sub 1.25% and the real yield -118 basis points, does the market have that right? david: well, the market is always right. [laughter] the price is right, as they say. but you have to understand what

is it actually telling you. we do think that it says there is a slowdown in growth, and we think that there is a tail risk out there that things could get really bad with delta. our call is at the end of the year, the 10 year is going to be around 1.9%. we do think there's going to be steepening towards the end of the year and in the fourth quarter. but at the moment, there's still a lot of unknowns. jonathan: just quickly, you've given us a framework of stagflation light. if that is the baseline which is the conviction equity call off the back of that call? david: we like quality defensive's, staples and utilities, but we also think in a world of lower growth in the sort of search for yield going on, and with u.s. rates low and fairly stable what the moment, we think it also makes a call for emerging markets. jonathan: lisa says you can come back every single week. david: i would love that.

[laughter] thank you so much. jonathan: good to catch up. it is a theme you've been alluding to over the past several months. kailey: stagflationary trends -- lisa: stagflationary trends do not necessarily mean a downturn. it doesn't necessarily mean we are heading back to a hellish reality. but it does signify that we are constrained by how much inflation has gone up in certain sectors, and we are already seeing that with housing sales coming down or even declining because the prices are too high for some people to even afford them. we are seeing that with respect to lumbar. we saw the lumber prices self-correct. you've been saying the best cure for inflation is inflation, but how big of a drag is this on the economy? the gdp reading we got yesterday signified that it could be quite a bit. jonathan: let's emit out. what does it mean? how do you push that through the bond market? david jones went with high yields on the 10 year, pushing back towards 2%. steeper curve or flatter curve?

lisa: the question is, how much can the fed have control over any of these indications? are they going to raise rates faster and curtail the animate recovery and lead to lower long-term rates, or is it going to have to be a policy response that generates faster growth going forward? i hate to hedge on this. jonathan: you love to hedge on it. i know what you really think. it's ok. kailey: logically, it would be a flatter curve. but realistically, what is the response going to be is unclear. jonathan: i just can't call this bond market right now. i don't think anyone really cannot the moment. it by two basis points. how many people come on this show and say we shouldn't be down here, but i think we are going to do percent? -- going to 2%? equity futures down 26, negative 0.6%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word

news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. has reportedly stopped processing ipo registrations for chinese companies, according to reuters. the news agency says the securities and exchange commission is working on new guide for disclosing to investors the risk of new regulatory crackdowns by china. it appears that amazon spend, bump is fading. vaccinated shoppers have started to venture out. the retailer reported sales and gave a forecast that fell short of expectations. it is the first time amazon has missed quarterly sales estimates since 2018. president biden's power over vaccinations has had a wall. in a speech, he ordered federal employees to get shots or face strict public health precautions. he also ordered holdouts $100 for a shot, but he said he hopes more employers will require their workers to get shots.

chevron posted second-quarter earnings that beat estimates. the energy giant is benefiting from higher prices for crude oil and natural gas. chevron also says operating costs are on track for a 10% reduction from 2019. the company is reviving share buybacks that were suspended more than a year ago. deutsche bank has lost a string of u.s.-based wealth management executives over the last year. bloomberg has learned at least 10 senior bankers and numerous employees have left. some were poached by competitors, others dismissed as part of deutsche bank's cost-cutting drive. the bank responded with a hiring spree of its own. global news 24 hours everyday -- one to four hours a day, on iran on bloomberg quicktake --on air and on bloomberg quicktake. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the strength of the employment report, they are at

maximum employment so they have leeway come but they talk themselves into this corner and they will try to talk them subs out. jonathan: that's the sound of the real hawk. charles plosser, former philadelphia federal reserve president. the days of president fisher, president plosser, those days are gone. none of this bullard, kaplan stuff. this was when they use to actually dissent. kailey: you can't blame them. -- lisa: you can't blame them. they've been conditioned by rate hikes that had to be reversed. at what point do the centers -- do the dissenters have a point? you have a discourse, but it's kind of narrow. jonathan: we are down 0.6% on

this be 500. someone earlier called stagflation light stag lite. sounds like something tom keene is drinking this morning. what would it mean for this bond market if more and more people start talking about stagflation? of course, we are talking about slowing growth. persistently higher rates of inflation will consist -- will persist at this rate. kailey: he said he really didn't hundred that -- lisa: he said he really didn't understand why yields went down so much after the previous meeting. how do you predict anything, given the fact that it depends on how much money is in the financial system and how much international flows are going into the u.s.? how do you forecast that out based on the fiscal response, the monetary response? jonathan: here's an ugly prediction for you. the president stepping in really late here to try to stop

evictions. an estimated 3.6 million households who have fallen behind on their payments are somewhat or very likely to face eviction over the next few months. about 7.4 million households are behind on rent in total. when there's a debt story, there's always two sides to that story. when things are tough, we always focus on the letter and not the former. lisa: princeton university's study of what happened the last time the moratorium expired showed eviction surged about 495% on the heels of that. that is a political liability for president biden. you have to wonder, can he say that it is ok for these to expire given the fact that we are not out of the pandemic yet and we are tightening some of the restrictions? jonathan: we are down 0.6 percent on s&p 500 futures. that's one side of the conversation in d.c. the sec has stopped processing ipo's and sales of securities by

chinese companies while it processes the risk of a new regulatory crackdown by beijing. i want to bring in bloomberg's tom mackenzie. it is good to catch up with you. walk me through the news this morning. tom: as you say, reuters reporting that the sec is doing what it has to do, which is protect the interest of u.s. investors, saying they are working out new guidance on how these chinese companies listed in the u.s. should disclose this domestic risk, the risk associated and aligned with that regulatory crack down that we have seen on education stocks, tech stocks, and property companies as well over the last week or so. it is not clear how long this process is going to take for the sec, but it comes at a time when we are also hearing that the politburo, top communist party leaders in beijing, have gathered together and laid out their priorities for the second half, and one of the key lines

that came out from that meeting was that they will tighten the supervision of overseas listings. we don't have the details on that, but we know they've already banned the variable interest for education companies listing in the u.s. and have put in this requirement that all companies looking to list overseas go through this data security review, so clearly they are starting to build out the framework now of increased scrutiny around these overseas listings, and of course, the focus for chinese regulators and the chinese government, the priority is data security, but you've got action on both sides of this issue. lisa: we are framing this as a sort of tit for tat, the u.s. and china bifurcation and both sides targeting one another, and the financial flows to each other's tech companies. i am wondering if that is perhaps overstepping the sec announcement, given the fact that it was largely expected, and a lot of people are saying what took so long.

tom: absolutely, the likes of the "financial times" have reported on this, and it is part of their duty to protect u.s. investors, and as you say, some have been calling for action more ugly on this given the incredible uncertainty they are in around china's actions. it is very clear from officials in beijing that they are at the start, potentially halfway through this process. they are nowhere near the end, so that uncertainty continues. you had a function hi -- them trying to assure investors that this wasn't a case of cracking down on every sector, but trying to deal with security and, when it comes to education, trying to ensure there is a level playing field here when it comes to the

access to education. so a complete eye for occasion is probably too far, but clearly regulators on both sides now need to ensure they are getting to grips with a changing regulatory framework in the legations were investors. kailey: maybe china isn't cracking down on every sector, but the other news today is that they will increase antimonopoly screwed of ride-hailing companies like didi, which is what inspired most of the events over the last month. what can you tell us about that? tom: ride-hailing is one of these businesses that has been allowed to flourish in china the last few years. there have been times regulators have stepped in to ensure that drivers have certain credentials , the vehicles meet certain requirements, but up until at least the last few weeks, they have been relatively free to pursue rapid growth across the country. didi has almost market dominance in china.

it dominates the market is by far the biggest share, but there has been concerned about the treatment of drivers, concern about safety in passengers, but also, it comes back to this point about data security and how they are holding this data, what they are doing with it. we know local officials have been using didi more regularly since the anticorruption campaigns in china about what possibly security servers in the u.s. may be able to access, sort jazz -- access, such as the movement of chinese government officials. but it is movement around the sector that has up until now been given free reign. jonathan: good to catch up, as always. bloomberg's tom mackenzie. looking forward to bringing his experience from mainland china to london if he takes a position in our office on queen victoria street. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro, together this

morning with kailey leinz. tom keene off this morning. he takes fridays off now. kailey: maybe he needs to -- lisa: maybe he needs to drink up on his tang. [laughter] jonathan: down 0.6% on the s&p. on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: buy from new york city, for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, here's the friday morning price action. we decline on the s&p by 0.6%, on the nasdaq 100 by 1%. 4% of the s&p, amazon is negative by 6.5%. if we get to the bond market, just a little bit defensive. treasuries firmer, yields lower, the curve a little bit flattered. down to basis points on tends -- down two basis points on tens. a lot of people say we shouldn't be down here, but when you asked them why we are down here, they don't know. but they are very confident we are going higher.

i still hear the 2% number lots and lots. we will talk about that more is the show progresses. get to the fx market. it could get very boring between here and year end. $1.20 is the year-end estimate, and right now we are $1.19. let's get the movers with romaine. romaine: we talk about the equity market earlier this week. that's because of some of the gains we saw in some of the large-cap stocks. but some of the declines we are seeing to end the week is also because of those same stocks. amazon, you talk about a 106 billion dollar forecast for the quarter, that is a miss. they also missed on q2 numbers. that is pretty rare for amazon. this feeds into the broader narrative, the idea of these companies are still growing, 20% plus revenue growth here. that is the forecast going forward, but not quite what the street was expecting, well below

the growth rates that a lot of investors have gotten accustomed to during the pandemic. do you rewrite? do you put -- do you rerate? do you reprice? was that not priced in? the other stocks being talked about a lot today are didi. more news on the crackdown on the transportation sector, as well as news in the u.s. of the sec restricting ipos of chinese companies in the relatively flat they view. yesterday on the close, saying that the first day is definitely

going to be down, but according to cathie wood, you will see folks come into this space because they have to. we have seen ark -- we have seen arc put their cards on the table. we are getting more earnings out. caterpillar did actually beat, but gave a forecast causing a bit a concern about slow down. procter & gamble also beat, but they also talk about a slow down and talked about this idea of these higher input costs, commodity costs, labor costs that could affect things going forward. those shares up about 1%. finally, pinterest. you talk about amazon being the to poison -- the disappoint of the day. pinterest might be the disappointment of the day. there is no growth. the number of active years on that site in the recent month is down. jonathan: looking forward to the coverage to close out the trading week with the team a little bit later. romaine leading you through the close later on on bloomberg television. you ever used pinterest? kailey:kailey: you know the answer -- lisa: you know the answer. of course i don't. i'm a technological nightmare. jonathan: kailey leinz, can you help us out here? kailey: i do use it. i'm planning a wedding. there's a lot of inspiration. lisa: hold on a second, multiple? no, one. jonathan: i assume pinterest's

business model is built more than just around kailey leinz's wedding singular. thank you for replacing tom keene. [laughter] i appreciate it. earlier this week, one call from one team on wall street made a ton of headlines. it came from goldman. this was the quote from nearly sell side research. "in the near term, a complete service sector recovery will likely require fully overcoming virus fears and returning to office work patterns. both now appear likely to take longer than we anticipated." that was jan hatzius and the team at goldman sachs. the chief economist joins us now. you've downgraded your forecast. can you walk us through this a little bit more, the degree to think you will -- you think we will celebrate? jan: we are looking for -- we will decelerate. jan: we are looking for pretty significant celebration. pretty significant growth in q2,

probably more in q3, but then out by the second half of 2022. that is partly because the return to full utilization in the service sector is a slow process. just one data point that i think is very important, the office occupancy rate in the united states is still only 30% of the pre-pandemic level. even in texas, which is most advanced, it is only 50%. i do think those numbers are going to be much higher eventually, but it is a very slow process. jonathan: 1.5% to 2% trend growth. that was amazing just to read that. 1.5% to 2% by the back end of 2022. that is the call. help me understand how you reconcile that with your call

from the federal reserve. how does the policy call reconcile with the growth call you are making? jan: the policy call is that the fed is still going to be very gradual in exiting from the current policy stance, so we have tapering starting in early 2022, announced at the december fomc meeting, then a pretty gradual $15 billion a meeting tapering pace. so it takes you until the end of 2022. and then whether you get rate hikes thereafter will depend on whether there are criteria fed has laid out are met. one of the criteria, 2% inflation. confidence that you will be somewhat above 2% for a while, and full employment. when those conditions are met, they will hike, or baseline is that that happens in late 2023, but i think the risks are

towards the lighter side. could slip into 2024. that is somewhat later than what markets are pricing for all of these things. so i think it is consistent with a growth forecast that is still strong in the short term, but decelerates quite a lot because of the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and less of a boost from reopening. lisa: some of the factors you are talking about like people getting back to the office and the delta variant subside. potentially it will take a couple of months longer, but why do you agree with citi micro strategists that put out a report today saying the stagflation surprise regime is technical in nature and should last more than a couple of months? jan: i certainly agree on the deflation side of things that we have seen obviously a big increase in inflation, and we do think it is transitory. we have a sharp deceleration in inflation in terms of core pce.

we think we will be below 2% for much of 2022, so i think on that part, we certainly have a similar view. on the growth side, we have been very optimistic about the rebound in growth in 2021, basically because you have seen a massive amount of fiscal support and a big boost for me opening, and both things have not quite played out yet, but they are temporary. it is a one-time boost to the growth rate and permit to the level, and fiscal actually turns into a negative impact in 2022 because a lot of the enormous support isn't repeated in 2022. kailey: surely we are not going to get instant trillion dollar money like we got during the pandemic. it is not going to be instantaneous pendant policy. but we are still talking about

trillions of dollars. i know it is spread out over a long time, but how do you get out here? jan: the headline number is going to be very big. let's say $3 trillion when all is said and done. maybe 1.5 trillion dollars of that is going to be offset by higher taxes. number two, it is spread over a 10 year horizon. you basically have to revise all of these numbers. you're talking about something in the lower gdp range, and nowhere near the support that the american rescue plan provided for 2021. what i am most interested in in terms of the impulse to growth is what is the change from one year to the next. fiscal support was about 12% in 2021, and even with our sumption

on fiscal, we only get 4% of gdp in 2022. that is an 8% reduction. that is not an 8% negative impulse because some of this is the flipside of a more normal economy, but it is still a pretty sizable negative impulse. jonathan: you've done a beautiful job of how you think growth will decelerate in the coming quarters. can you help me understand how you expect the rate of inflation to accelerate as well? does that persist into the new year? jan: we don't think so because it is very concentrated in a small number of areas that are very likely to be temporary. the single most important one is used cars, and the used car market is already showing some signs of relaxation. we have options prices wichman going down over the next six weeks or so that have not shown up in the cpi and pce yet, but

it will show up over the next several months. you're going to go from a positive impulse to a negative impulse as you go into next year. other observations, i think wage pressure has been sizable, but looks quite temporarily and probably relates to a decent part of the top on them plane and benefits, which are expiring. lastly, inflation expectations still seem very anchored at least for the moment. jonathan: great to catch up with you on the week. what was it, the price level shift that doesn't change the inflation process? lisa: prices won't go back down, but that does not mean they will continue rising at the pace they have been. jonathan: i thought even the chairman thought he had cleared that up. euro-dollar, $1.1891.

this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. shares of didi global are falling in pre-market trade. the transportation ministry says some companies are disrupting fair competition. it also said companies must protect the rights of drivers and strengthen data security management. the treasury department is set to start dipping into its toolkit to avoid breaching the u.s. debt limit. congress has not come up with a way to avoid a default later this year. the treasury will use the first of its so-called extraordinary measures. in hong kong, a protester has been sent to prison for nine years. the man was convicted of crushing his motorcycle into police officers while playing a

protest flag. the security law was imposed on hong kong by china's central government. -- reported second-quarter earnings that beat estimates. they were hit by the rising cost of raw materials, but that was offset by rising demand and higher prices for diggers and trucks. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> consumer spending is starting

to affect consumer levels. the consumer has been were markedly resilient. as we have come out of lockdown, competence has come back. jonathan: that was the natwest ceo. alongside this promotes and kailey leinz come on jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us on monday. here's your equity market this friday morning. on the s&p 500, we are down 29 points, off by 0.7% on the s&p 500. coming into the week basically unchanged on the s&p. we could decline at the opening bell. in the bond market, yields lower by three basis points to 1.2373%. here's the news for apple. a debt offering for investment-grade debt.

it is pretty impressive. lisa: why wouldn't they borrow money? why not by money and then just buy back their shares, or just give dividends? at this point, it is basically free for them. why not take advantage? jonathan: until 2020, apple had not borrowed in the investment-grade market more than once in a calendar year since 2017. they are frequent visitors to this deck market now. lisa: who can blame them? what discipline cfo wouldn't do this when you've got investors throwing their money away? 40 your debt. what is apple going to look like in 40 years? jonathan: no idea. amazon, are you growing your money at amazon stock morning? we want to bring ken bloomberg intelligence's senior analyst

for u.s. retail. that's start with this one. some people think maybe amazon is just shifting the bar lower, resetting things. what is your take? reporter: you can say that. they have to bring down consensus is that is too high going into the back half, and you can't except amazon to grow north of 20% on top of comparisons from last year. there's new estimates we have at 10% to 16%. you could argue that it may be beatable, especially as they move into territory where virus cases are rising, and you could see a pullback in spending in the areas that have picked up such as restaurants and leisure. lisa: what i hear underneath that, and i know you are not going to make a call, but people have overreacted. is that what you are saying? reporter: i think amazon has done well. if you look outside of those numbers. they are all growing over 30%.

i don't think everyone is looking at the brighter side of the picture. there's a lot that's going on that is really great for amazon. online pulls back a little bit, but it is still very strong. we continue to see amazon growing for the for siebel future which is in line with sales growth. lisa: there's sales growth, and then there's the profit ability of each sale. is amazon getting more profitable per sale as they scale up and increase some of their margins and a number of different areas to scale back spending? reporter: as the mix of aws grows and some of these other services, those are high-margin businesses, so their margins are poised to rise. kailey: what about the labor side of the equation? we have seen wages going higher in a number of sectors. do you expect that to weigh on amazon's profitably going forward? reporter: i think near-term

headwinds are increasing, as well as freight delays we are seeing in the industry. those are all near-term pressures, but over time with think things will settle, and they will be able to leverage their scale to guide better productivity. kailey: what about streaming? they obviously bought each -- but mgm earlier this year. they are trying to bulk up prime video. how much is that going forward? reporter: prime video is still a small part of their overall business, but it is definitely growing and can be more meaningful. the draw is really to get there prime members to be stickier and to draw more prime members. it is a direct play against netflix and some of the other streaming services. the more content they can create, the more members they can draw and the more time they can spend on amazon's platform. jonathan: we are about -- lisa: we are about 40 minutes away from personal income and spending data. a lot of people are trying to decide how much savings

individuals are going to spend. how closely are you watching the data we are about to get for clues as to the pace and deployment of that money? reporter: we are concerned about inflation. inflation has obviously picked up, but the savings rate is higher, and consumers will drawdown the savings rate for as long as they can or they feel comfortable in spending. but we think over the longer run, at some point price is going to be more top of mind, and value will come back into play. jonathan: great to get your thoughts on this stock, shaking things up this morning on the nasdaq 100 and the s&p. that is bloomberg intelligence's senior analyst. amazon this morning down by around 6% through march of this morning. just had a wonderful chart pinged to me on the bloomberg. you will love this. i wish i could repurpose it for tv very quickly. for our radio audience, you'll appreciate this either way. 10 year yields bond issues from

apple, and over the last couple of years, the cfo at apple has just timed the inflection higher in treasury yields. every single issue from apple just seems to end with another tick higher in 10-year gilts. fascinating chart -- 10 year yields. fascinating chart to look at. lisa: let's just put into terms of their bond issues and timing in terms of raising money cheaply. . i want to circle back to one thing she was saying, that prices will start to slow peoples spending. people will be more hesitant to spend as they see prices going up. this is the s word, stagflation. jonathan: stag light? lisa: stagflationary influences, excuse me. but we are hearing more and more of that, and i wonder how much we are going to be hearing that seem elucidated in the data we are going to be getting shortly. jonathan: i'm determined to take advantage of fun position of not having a view on q4 because q4 i

think is just the absolute unknown, and there are some people throwing abound some big calls. i'm not talking about lisa, let's be clear here. [laughter] some people might regret some of these big calls in q4. i think you've got to be very brave to have conviction and confidence right now. kailey: it is so hard to know. the other word we use quite often, consensus, how so many of the consensus calls have broken down. it is hard for me to imagine that is something that is going to change in the back half of the year, given all of the unknowns that are still out there when it comes to monetary policy, when it comes to the delta variant. how can you really make a call? jonathan: stag light. is that going to play? if that going to be the header in south side research? lisa: all of those words, transitory, stagflation, stag light. [laughter] jonathan: if you are joining us on tv and radio, welcome.

we are down 0.7% on the s&p 500. yields lower by two or three basis points to 1.24%. euro-dollar unchanged at $1.1887. tom keene back on monday. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> growth expectations are coming off in the second half of the year. >> growth is going to be strong, just not as strong as the first half. >> we are still getting some very high and potentially very concerning inflation readings in the near-term. >> there are consequences of the fed asset purchases. the markets are awash. >> i think we are still a long way away from rate hikes. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: one more trading day. you've made it.

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