>> we are looking for a pretty significant deceleration as we go into 2022. >> is going to be strong, does not as strong as the first have. >> i think you could potentially see some more bumpy nest. -- more bumpiness. >> you could get some very high inflation readings in the near term. >> i think it will ultimately create a stronger dollar. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: that's get the week started. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 14 points, up 0.3%, pushing ahead to payrolls friday. tom: into august and into that jobs report, it is a linkage of our economic leaf in august and

january of next year with our market belief. they are really bouncing off each other within the research notes as we begin the month. jonathan: can we take a beat to have a shout out for italy? won the eurovision song contest, won euro 2020, fastest man on the planet, and the two-year yield -0.65%. tom: i just want to extend this moment and suggest what ac milan looks like into 2022. jonathan: let's stop that there. [laughter] lisa: that was a really nice way to try to move on quickly and get it out of the way. the jobs number is going to be really key. how much slack is there in the labor market? we know the demand to hire is there. the question is whether we have seen the kinks worked out or whether we have to wait for september.

jonathan: let's get to the price action. equity futures on the s&p 500 shaping up as follows. we advance 16, up by 0.3%. in the bond market, yields unchanged. dollar weaker to kick off the month of august. dollar weaker against pretty much everything with the exception of pound sterling at the moment. the commodity currencies on top, norway, the aussie. really surprising to see the aussie dollar doing well despite that unexpected chinese data. tom: michael shaoul is going to talk about volatility here. i wonder if the mystery of august is going to be dollar volatility. jonathan: euro-dollar, $1.1891. lisa: one of the key questions behind the volatility is inflation. we will get a read on what manufacturers are seeing with the u.s. july ism manufacturing data. the key question to me is how

much are prices rising. we know they are rising, but they have continually beat to the upside when it comes to how fast inflation has been. how long can we talk about the t-word, transitory, or does it start to become something else? the senate resumes infrastructure bill discussions. the key question is, can the get this passed this week and get it over to the house? and what does the house do with it? the center for strategic and international studies is holding a fireside chat with anthony fauci, the national institute of health director. the key question i have is what is the threshold for potential lockdowns. he says that is off the table. what about masks? what about mandating people back to work? how do we move forward when the delta variant has clearly shown itself to be somewhat of a

different animal than the rest of the covid strains just by virtue of how quickly it spreads and how much it is even infecting backs individuals? -- infecting vaccinated individuals? jonathan: we saw a real shift were private companies started to push a little bit harder to get their staff vaccinated, and some pushing back the return to office as well by about a month. tom: that's true, but i would suggest this week and was a game changer within the pandemic, with the one exception of the school thing we talked about in the last hour. there was a lot of research on the hysteria out there versus the science that the experts are talking about. jonathan: joining us is michael shaoul, market field asset management ceo. this market doesn't seem to be too concerned. are you concerned that this market is not concerned about it? michael: i think it will be at some point in time.

it is impossible to remember what it was like 10 years ago. i think it markets a long time to realize something fundamental has changed. you are seeing not just inflation data, but on the corporate earnings call, it is fairly benign for the sector because at the end of the day, prices are being pushed onto the customer, whether it is another corporate customer or the consumer. either the consumer pushes back, in which case you will have a collapse in confidence in corporate earnings, or maybe they feel they need to do something about it. tom: do you care about overnight reserves going through $1 trillion? if you look at the confidence in the fed, the confidence in the

short-term trust money, is it a big deal to you with your inflation prediction, your volatility prediction, to see $1 trillion overnight reserves? lisa: -- michael: it is, but it is not about confidence in the fed. it is just another sign that monetary policy is somewhat out of control. the market itself goes and puts the money back in the fed. we have more than eight months worth of qe sitting back at the federal reserve. it is a difficult question, whether qe actually exists. my big take is just that this is a policy which has far outlived its usefulness, and the unintended consequences of this pope are going to be sick of -- of this period are going to be

significant. lisa: when do we find out if it is something just beyond transitory? michael: i think we had a new definition of transitory from jay powell this week which is just anything that lasts a long time. [laughter] what is really concerned about is a shift between -- and tightness. if we start to see evidence from corporate america that workers are demanding and getting higher wages, and that inflation is the reason behind that, we see it right now certainly in high-level white collar pay, certainly accelerating at this point, then it is something that anyone looking towards invasion would be looking for. jonathan: where do i go? michael: i think you want to own

the people in controlled prices. i think you're going to have a very interesting battle with china which is clearly trying to talked on the price of industrial metals. i don't think they will be successful doing so. energy demand seems to be getting closer supplies. that is going to be interesting. thus far, the makers of things, the industrials seem to have pricing power, so i think all of those look interesting. tom: what do you do with large-cap u.s.? part of the prescription here is to own america and own cap stocks. what do you do with them? michael: as long as technology continues to perform, if you look at china, a market dominated by tech and the effects of chinese tech went down on the emerging market index, you see on one hand opportunity in the u.s., on the other hand the risk in the u.s.

the s&p is going to be a very hard index to beat. the minute technology is not good, the s&p is going to be an incredibly unfriendly index. so right now, people still like tech. i wouldn't say earnings are better than expectations anymore , but forecasting the demise of this technology bull market is very difficult. jonathan: really tough. good to catch up, as always. market travel, marketfield asset management ceo. need to work out what this means for the market. immense as a bloomberg intelligence on their little earlier this morning. tom: was that earlier this morning, really? jonathan: china makes up over 20% of all dollar-denominated em bonds trading above 7%. it makes up 2/3 of distressed em universe. got to pay attention to these things as they continue to develop. tom: what is really important is

the pacific rim finance is different than what we were trained on. it is radically changed with that china focus. i think it is important to do an italian block. jonathan: i think we are running out of time, tom. [laughter] tom: i am blown away that the french giant, olivier, he went from chelsea to ac milan. frankly, it is a big deal, isn't it? they did well against nice. jonathan: 1-1, i saw that. and he scored in the first couple of minutes, didn't he? jonathan: i will repeat that if you didn't hear. those two sets that come from bloomberg intelligence, 25% of all gloves are dominated -- of all dollar-denominated bonds makeup 2/3 of the distressed em

universe. china, china, china. lisa: you see defaults creep up because the authorities try to create a more capitalistic society that way, but really, do people want to own china at a time of such regulatory uncertainty? you are seeing increased buying in places like australia, places that might have gotten beaten up slightly in the wake of weaker chinese data because it is more bendable from a regulatory standpoint. jonathan: i thing it is important to recognize that when we had those huge routs, the currency was not stable. this time around, the currency is stable. that may be gives some people some confidence to go back and -- to go back in. jonathan: i'm feeling a bit nervous about the season ahead. aren't you doing well this year? tom: no, the yankees are on a tear. jonathan: i thought the yankees

were terrible. tom: trade deadline, they rocked it. jonathan: do you want to talk about that later? tom: later. i'm screaming. jonathan: you're screaming most mornings. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. u.s. senate is on a path could lead to about this week on that $550 billion infrastructure package. negotiators finished the text of the bill yesterday, a crucial step towards eventual passage. republican senator mitt romney says neither side got everything they wanted. after the senate votes, final congressional action wouldn't take place until after a recess. the u.s. has formally blamed iran for a deadly attack on an israeli linked tanker. secretary of state antony blinken says there will be an appropriate response. experts say they believe the ship was struck by a drone, killing two crewmembers. iran has denied response ability. it is the biggest acquisition

ever for square. the digital payment platform has agreed to pay $29 billion for australian by now -- australian buy now, pay later company after pay. the american gymnastics star simone biles withdrew from an event because of mental health issues, but she will compete in the beam tomorrow. she won the bronze on the beam five years ago in rio. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> i was very optimistic the

fall would be a strong labor market. that is still my base case scenario, but if people are nervous about the delta variant, that could slow some of the labor market recovery and therefore be a drag on our economic recovery. jonathan: that was president neel kashkari over the weekend. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. before we get a market check, let's set on that quote there. i think it will be difficult to get the numbers lined up for the september fed meeting if many of the officials at the federal reserve want to see the september data first. if you want to see the september jobs data, you've got to wait until october to see how that pans out. maybe we'll get a better feel for it through september. i don't know, but it is going to take a while to find out. tom: i brought this up time and time again. they are as ex post as they have ever been. november 3, december 15, how

about you go to january 26 of next year? jonathan: makes you wonder how relevant the data is as we go into july payrolls this coming friday. here's your equity market on the s&p, up 20. we advanced by 0.4%. the nasdaq looking ok, up 0.4%. euro-dollar, $1.1892. weaker dollar through g10 this morning, and on the 10 year, up about a basis point now to 1.23%. tom: we've got a ways to go. we will continue on the interesting monday morning, the beginning of august. we begin at the white house with our mario parker. mario, i want to know what this administration's plan is, their cogent plan on the virus and masks this morning. i can't figure it out. mario: i think that is the conundrum this white house finds

itself in. if you think about it, less than four weeks ago, we were celebrating our freedom from the virus here at the white house, on the lawn sans masks. last week, there is this about-face with the cdc issuing new guidelines. tom: within that is science. the place of science within the previous administration, within this administration, how to science fit into the day-to-day battle at the white house? mario: this white house, as painful as it is, they will concede that they are going to be led by science. science may not always aligned with their political aspirations. joe biden campaigned on saying he would tell the hard truth, he would listen to the science, and he is doing that right now, though it does put the white house in a tough position politically. lisa: i love that, science may

not always comply with political aspirations. there's a question of what the likely path of these scientific recommendations will be. is it just going to be mask mandates? willoughby federally? is it for everyone, and for how long? mario: it looks like as of right now, it is the mask mandate. president biden, as he was leaving the white house last week, without giving much details, said that other restrictions are likely to come, particularly if people don't get vaccinated. he didn't give details as to what those restrictions would be, but the likelihood, dr. fauci said yesterday, that the likelihood of mask restrictions like we saw last winter are very unlikely. there are enough americans vaccinated to stem that kind of trend. lisa: part of the dissonance over the mask mandates trickles into infrastructure talks or the support that president biden has for members of both parties. mario: this is the one bright

spot in a rough eight days or so for the white house. as we mentioned last week, they were in some regards, it seemed as though they stumbled with the handling of the delta virus, the eviction moratorium, but the infrastructure deal seems to be the one bright spot the white house has right now. it is a big win for the administration. tom: how do we deal with the two bills that seem to be the raging battle for the president left? mario: this is going to be the tight rope that president biden has to navigate here in the coming weeks. he has a win with the infrastructure, one of the central pieces of his presidency, but he does have to keep that left flank on board. the only way to do that is to pass his so-called care economy

package that progressives like to keep them on board with the bipartisan infrastructure bill right now. jonathan: scathing comments going into the weekend from congresswoman alexandria alexandria ocasio-cortez, saying we are scrambling, but it could have been avoided with more forthright leadership from the white house. that was on evictions. can you walk me through what honors happened with this? mario: there was a lot of finger-pointing towards the middle of last week. the white house knew that this was coming with the supreme court decision previously, so the white house tried to speed something through congress. that put the heat on the house. the house wasn't able to do anything with such short notice, and made sure to mention that the white house gave them such short notice. now as you mention come you got alexandria because the -- you've got alexandria alexandria

ocasio-cortez criticizing this lifting of the you fix and moratorium. -- the eva should moratorium -- the if action -- the eviction moratorium. jonathan: mario, thank you. this has expired. about 7.4 million household are behind on rent in total. they are staggering numbers. lisa: if you take a look at the different regions within the united states, the south may be hardest hit by some of these, which is interesting from a political standpoint, how much trauma might be more concentrated, but how this will play out for president biden heading into the midterm. jonathan: we didn't get an answer over the weekend. why did they wait so long to ask congress? i can't get my head around that. lisa: there was no answer, not that i can tell, in terms of why it wasn't more on the radar area they did say they had been discussing it behind closed

doors, and yet the urgency seemed to not be there. jonathan: breaking news out of the u.k. come out of england come out of north london. harry kane hasn't shown up for training, apparently. he was due to return this morning following a short holiday, and he hasn't turned up for training, so your spurs might lose your harry to manchester city. tom: i'm so worried about this. he wants to go to one of the manchester teams, right? jonathan: manchester city apparently in the mix. possibly. we've got to see if -- leaves villa. tom: where is man city's money to afford that? jonathan: not from england, from the middle east. that is where the money is coming from. a lot of the money, anyway. tom: it is like un-american. it is on british -- it is un-

british. jonathan: tom porcelli is going to join us on the economy as we count you down to payrolls friday. a divide between governor brainard and president bullard. who wins out? this is "bloomberg surveillance ."

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♪ jonathan: live from the ark city , good morning to you. here's your monday morning price action. on the equity market, up 17. we advanced 0.4%. on the russell, some outperformance, up 0.8% after some underperformance through the month of july. we leave behind a 25 basis point move lower on a u.s. 10 year in july, coming to august with broken consensus. morgan stanley coming up with their call. i think we have cleared the decks here. their call, one point 60%. this market, one point 2772 -- 1.2272% on tens. i thing it has been tremendously

difficult to call this bond market, even if you call the economic data correctly. this morning, weaker dollar story for much of g10, even with that weaker china data. surprised to the downside. the euro stronger, approaching $1.19 again. up a little more than 0.1% as we kick off the month of august. tom: the month of august is a mystery. that's all there is to it. jonathan: do we pay attention to the data or look ahead to september? i am thinking for the federal reserve more specifically. tom: i was thinking the red sox. jonathan: razor on top -- raise our on top -- rays are on top. tom: very good, jon. jonathan: is that why you're upset this morning? tom: yeah.

the only one that talks to me is mckee. jonathan: what is with mohamed? he's a mets fan, and they are doing well. lisa: yes they are, but don't talk about it or else they won't be. jonathan: this is quite a market check, isn't it, going from financial markets to baseball teams, mets are on top, and apparently i'm not meant to talk about it? ok. [laughter] let's get you some stocks. romaine: let's start in the m&a space this morning. a big deal for square, buying the australian company after pay. this is a big installment loan company. square now trying to push into a space that has already become popular. they are paying about $29 billion u.s. for this company. some folks say that is not necessarily enough, so there's some concern that this might not get through. that is why you are seeing

shares down about 4.5%. this is basically been -- in this installment phase. the stock had actually been underperforming since the ipo back in january, but it is getting a bit of a pop here, up in the premarket. this is with the big aerospace component company in the u.k. this is about $9 billion, but it is going to double the size of parker hammond's business. another deal to keep an eye on to see whether this gets worked out and whether there's any antitrust concerns. a few other stocks to keep an eye on, last week we did see the airlines get sold off already heavily. they are nice -- they are getting a nice bid today. on the plus side, you had two interesting develop and's here. that was the first full completion of a cruise from carnival. this was their princess line,

that went from seattle to alaska and back. norwegian did the same. these were the first to successful with paying passengers on board since the pandemic. another sign of normalcy, but keep an eye on the delta variant to see whether that is having any effect going forward. tom:tom: that would explain where lisa was. she was not on crete. jonathan: did we confirm where lisa actually was? tom: maybe on a boat floating around. jonathan: thank you, remain -- thank you, romaine. where was lisa? lisa: i am going to have to do more field research to see where it was. jonathan: is the vacation series done for the summer? lisa: i want to say no, but unfortunately, i don't have any more planned vacations. jonathan: so now you're just asking a load of questions about

kids back to school every warning -- every morning. lisa: that's right, i'm just going to be really gloomy. jonathan: even gloomier. [laughter] lisa: that's what happens when i'm off vacation, so get ready. tom: we need to get ready -- it ready for an economic week, and we get ready with michael mckee. jobs report friday, does it from the fed for the next meeting, or is it just another data point along the way? michael: just another data point along the way, in the sense that the next meeting doesn't come into after get the august jobs report, so we will have two sets of numbers to work with. this meeting is going to be a little different. we always look at how money jobs are created, but this month, how money people are looking for work? are we seeing the labor markets open up so that some people come back into the labor market looking for jobs, and the big

holes we have to get filled? tom: link this into the labor participation rate which has not recovered to february pre-pandemic. michael: you take a look by age cohorts, and the prime age, 25 to 54, as kind of stayed flat. it is the older folks like me and you who have dropped out of the labor force. tom: oh yes, we have. [laughter] jonathan: still waiting for that one, mike. tom: jon has got the thing on his desk, the sand thing on his desk, the hourglass. michael: these are the days of our lives. [laughter] jonathan: carry-on. michael: so we have to fill the hole left by the folks who decided to retire. tom: you're killing it, mike. jonathan: how relevant is this data this friday, given we have a federal reserve, some of which are waiting for the september

data that they will not see until october? michael: we will get the august data, so we will have two months of data. but the question is not what they are going to do, but when they are going to announce what they are going to do. to this meeting really isn't going to play into that. it appears from what jay powell said that they are not going to be making a major announcement that jackson hole, but they could always change their minds if the data came in very strong. we are expecting a pickup. we are expecting better news. maybe that makes the market feel better. but they are not going to change policy anytime soon. jonathan: this line from governor brainard, expect to be more confident once we have data in september, was that governor brainard pouring freezing cold water over jackson hole speeches? michael: i think so. one of the reasons i and others asked about jackson hole in the news conference last wednesday

was the market is expecting jay powell, or was expecting jay powell to maybe lay out their tapering plans. if you were to do that, it would mean they had agreed at their meeting to a plan that he good layout, and it appears from everything else he said that they did not read we will get the minutes before we get to jackson hole. if they have not, there isn't something for him to say. i think the fed once more data not just on jobs, but they want the price data. they want to see if they are right about the number of things going up in price being limited to things just hit by supply chain problem's. lisa: jon sankey because he was looking to take the month of august off. jonathan: michael gapen of barclays already said yes, to be clear. lisa: he basically said it is going to be a snooze fest, and go ahead, so we will be hearing about your vacation plans. going forward, we talk about price pressures. there's another definition of transitory, as we were just

hearing from michael shaoul earlier today area what are some of the data points you find most important when it comes to price pressures in the next few months that could indicate how quickly they will taper, and even the potential for rate hikes currently being priced out? michael: the most important number coming up in august is going to be the cpi because it comes out in the middle of the month. the pce comes at the end of the month, so for this month and ahead of jackson hole, it is going to be cpi. we are going to watch used cars, and we will look for price pressures anywhere else that appeared to be building. tom: he's going to be watching the desert city ramblers in jackson hole. that is really what he's going to be doing. jonathan: mike is just looking for an excuse to still actually go. [laughter] michael: we were talking about that after the news conference. powell said, it is not going to be very interesting. we were saying, don't tell our

boss. jonathan: making the decision on base ring -- on tapering based on different things. when i hear the likes of kaplan and bullard talk about tapering, i hear them talk about the context the decision was made in 12 months ago, which was an emergency, a crisis, the threat of a depression. now i hear them say we don't need that anymore. i hear others talk about the data are let's wait and see how the job regresses. are we having two different conversations here? after a conversation with mohamed el-erian and jim be onto -- and jim be uncle -- jim be uncle -- jim bianco, they are wondering if this is just inconsistency within the fed on key arguments. michael: the real difference is the folks arguing to leave the accommodation in place with qe argue that the fed promised it

would keep rates low for a long time, and it is the promise, not the rates, that they have to live up to. if they say we are going to keep rates low until the end of the year and they don't, the next time they come back, the market is not going to believe them. the people who think they should start tapering soon are starting to look at the cash piling up in the system, and starting to worry that we are going to see some major disruptions to the financial markets. jonathan: thank you. where did tom porcelli go? he didn't pick up the phone. lisa: i think we scared him away. [laughter] michael mckee, great for you to jump in. looking ahead i think to jackson hole in some way, shape or form. equity futures up 20 on the s&p. in the next hour, seema stanley of amherst pierpont. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. senate is on the verge of giving president biden a big win. lawmakers are heading towards passage this week of a $550 billion infrastructure bill that would provide the biggest infusion of federal spending on public workers in decades. the money would fund roads, water project, the power grid, and a whole lot more. the bill would still need to be passed by the house, who won't pick it up until next month. the securities regulator in china is calling for talks with its american counterpart on overseas ipos. last week, the sec increased disclosure requirements for chinese companies that want to list in the u.s. that came in response to beijing's clampdown on the industry. goldman sachs has become one of the last wall street banks to

raise pay for junior bankers. first your analysts will now make at least $110,000. pay for first year associates will rise to $150,000. goldman analysts revealed visitations that show they are crushing workloads. canada upset the u.s. 1-0 in a semifinal much today. the u.s. will now play for the bronze medal on thursday. canada will play either australia or sweden in the final on thursday. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we see that more inflation

then we have seen probably at any time in the last decade. we are able through our hedging policy to look at lower pricing, but still the impacts will be significant. jonathan: what a line from the heineken ceo. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your equity market this monday morning, shaping but as follows -- shaping up as follows. of 20 on the s&p. yields unchanged at 1.2255%. euro-dollar, $1.1883, advancing a little more than 0.1%. $72.91 on wti. tom: ira jersey for bloomberg intelligence moments ago, those are -- those are stunning

numbers ending up to 1.5% 10 year over the next few months. that is price down, yield up. jonathan: and looking for curve flatter through 2022. that's the bit that gets my attention. i.e. milled him back straightaway to see what he was expecting to happen at the front end, and on what. tom: he says fed happens. what i write is saying -- what ira is saying is it is down to lael brainard. that's what happens. jersey is in the lael brainard camp. let's go. jonathan: do you think that makes sense? tom: i don't know. they are looking for an action process. let's go. jonathan: governor brainard might be the most patient official. that feels like a prison lord --

president bullard. if i'm assessing the flatter curve through next year, and i've got to get a flatter curve, something big needs to be happening at the front end. that is a hawkish move from the federal reserve, shortly. tom: very interesting. we will have ira jersey on this week to talk about the fixed income space. right now, this really dovetails into damian sassower adding value a few hours ago. david wilson considers china. dave: and specifically, the weight that chinese stocks of all kinds have and the msci emerging markets index. we know the story of the past month and the past six months is how chinese companies listed in the u.s. have taken a tumble. you've got the nasdaq open dragon china index, one benchmark for that group, down 25% for the year. you had a spill over into stocks traded on the mainland and also in hong kong.

the msci china index is down 12%. put that together with the rest of the emerging markets in msci's benchmark gauge, and basically you have an index that is little changed while the s&p 500 is up 17%. what really jumps out is looking at china stocks before this year. you have seen their weight and the msci emerging markets index go up for 10 years and around, and last year -- 10 years in a row, and last year go above the peak wafer tech stocks in the s&p 500. tom: who determines the weighting of the pacific rim index? dave: it is how many shares they include within the index that are free to trade, how many companies they put in to be representative of the greater china market. you have to figure hong kong as part of that. you put it all together, and you just see this country increasingly take over the index , and arguably give the msci emerging markets a dotcom

moment. lisa:lisa: this is a truly watershed moment for investing in china because of the new regulatory regime area they are changing the emphasis, and there is renewed regulatory uncertainty following the decisions of the last few weeks. how much are you hearing from analysts and investors that they are moving away from investing in china and looking at other regional economies to try to find investments that might be a little less subject to regulatory uncertainty? dave: there's clearly some of that happening, but the real question i am being given, the sheriff china stocks in emerging markets more broadly, is how far can you carry that. if you want to be in certain segments of the market, you kind of have to have china as part of that. consumer discretionary, the biggest component of the msci china index, and a big part of that the alibaba group holding, you can throw in others like

jd.com, but if you want to be in that area in one way or another, it only makes sense that you have money in china. tom: what does your earnings would look like? dave: it is a relatively busy week, but the number that really jumps out is that second-quarter earnings growth for the s&p 500 is now up to 89%. we weren't close to that when companies started reporting, and that may only go higher by the time the week is done. tom: dave wilson, thanks so much. you really wonder when we start hearing about s&p 5000 on a regular basis. jonathan: didn't scott minerd start that off last week? he said over 12 months, lisa. lisa: but he didn't start that off. tom started that off by saying do you see 5000. [laughter] tom: lisa, you are mistaken. lisa: ok, i'm sorry. jonathan: i have a response from

ira jersey of bloomberg intelligence. let me reiterate that. the tens to move to 1.8 6% next year, and buried in there is the idea that we get a flatter curve. he says the idea is if the fed is going to hike in late 2023, the front end will need to be fully priced in for that, so it is not massive flattening through next year. he just says that's where the bias might as we start to end his bait some of these hikes. tom: i am wondering what that does to my austrian 99 your paper -- 99 year paper. this rebound for the entire market. jonathan: it does. we will talk about the curve flattening through next year, and it is probably -- it is pretty early for this kind of stuff. tom: this is the most wacko

august i've ever seen. august is always nuts. let's be honest. jonathan: we are on the second, and is already the most wacko tom has ever seen. it is september that is so pivotal for so many of the debates happening on wall street and beyond. lisa, you have made that point as well. lisa: the idea that you are talking about the flattening yield curve highlights the uncertainty around not only the data, but the response to the data. we get a lower yield on the 10 year if we get in a credible jobs number? what is the reaction function in markets? jonathan: you can call the data right. can you get the market move in response to the data right? that's been harder over the last few months. in your fx market, euro-dollar $1.1889, advancing 0.2%.

on the s&p, we advanced 20 points. a nice little lift as we kick off, what did you call it, tom, the wackiest month. on radio, on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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>> we are already in an economy that has seen peak growth on a quarter to quarter basis and it is beginning to slow. >> we are looking for a pretty significant deceleration as we go into 2022. >> we are still getting some very high and potentially very concerning inflation readings in the near term. >> we are seeing it move a little faster, a little further to pull back on these purchases. >> the market ticks a long time to realize something really fundamental has changed. >> this is -->> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.

tom: good morning, everyone.