>> we are already in an economy that has seen peak growth on a quarter to quarter basis and it is beginning to slow. >> we are looking for a pretty significant deceleration as we go into 2022. >> we are still getting some very high and potentially very concerning inflation readings in the near term. >> we are seeing it move a little faster, a little further to pull back on these purchases. >> the market ticks a long time to realize something really fundamental has changed. >> this is -->> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

jobs week this week, the beginning of august. an interesting end to the summer. just extraordinary. futures up 20. the bond market gives me signals. i've got a greater negative real yield. jonathan: your nominal yield right now, 1.2222%. two days for the diary for the month of august. this friday payrolls, next wednesday cpi in america. those two data points in the early part of this month set the tone for the rest of this month coming into jackson hole. tom: i'm a little bit removed from jackson hole based on what powell said at the press conference, but what i would see is the absolute mystery of august, and once again, a bid to the equity market which speaks volumes. jonathan: got to see it is the road to september. do we have the return to work lined up in the way we anticipate?

or does anything between now and then knock us off course? that is what august is about to me. tom: to me, the whole thing is watching full faith in credit hans, and you bring it over. lisa: what could make yields go higher? add this to the lower yield equation. today, for the first time in five years, the u.s. treasury department will probably start sloping their issuance of bonds. basically, the u.s. is going to be selling less and less debt. the need to raise money as they move away from funding these mask of fiscal -- these massive fiscal plans. that means even as the fed starts removing accommodation, the actual supply, if you look at the demand dynamic, is going to be going down. this could actually lead to yields staying low or pressuring them lower. tom: how big it deal is the jobs report friday?

there's a cacophony to this august i've never seen before. as the jobs report really shapes up, it could be a game changer. jonathan: the same question as the months before in the month before that. this economy is really robust pretty much everywhere you look yet we've got to work out how the supply side response to that demand. that is still the question which is why i am going to repeat what i said months ago. that's why september is critical. it is the first test of the supply side of the economy to respond because many people have been more forgiving of downside surprises. they have been able to sit here and say return to school, enhanced unemployment insurance ins. many people forgiving be surprises to the upside on cpi. if we don't see the supply side of this economy respond, if we don't see participation start to lift, i think that starts to push some of these arguments some people have held through the year so far, they start to crack a bit. tom: the dow up 130 points, and

the vix goes to 18.3 to come with spx up 22 points. small caps helping out with a larger 0.9 percent move. equities with a lift this morning. jonathan: early days for equities look good. the bond market stable. yields go nowhere, and the dollar is weaker. hardly anyone is talking about weaker than expected chinese data because it is very hard to find chinese data showing up in this market this morning. tom: i mentioned a class and $74 on brent crude -- a quay absent -- a quiescent $74 on brent crude. i want to channel ted lasso this morning. the basic idea is the belief in yield higher. do you believe in yield higher? what is the past to get us to higher yields where we can frame an intelligent belief?

>> first of all, i think it depends on whether we are talking about nominal or real yields. we do think that yields belong higher. basically any fundamental economic model you could run today suggests that, based on the long-term level of growth, and i don't mean the next quarter or so which is still quite elevated thanks to the covid recovery, but any longer-term basis, 10 year yield probably do belong at a higher level, and that is compounded by the fact that the fed will eventually be starting to taper its purchases. i think what we have seen is there's a tremendous amount of liquidity in the system chasing yields lower, and the fact that the market has essentially taken the terminal right all the way down to around 1.5%, so the market kind of has this the right now that if the fed starts hiking in the next year and a half or so, they will not be able to get many rate hikes actually done. that means the terminal rate

will be 1.5%, so the level of 10 year yield is artificially depressed by that view, and i think that will start to correct itself in part because i think the fed wants to take a slightly easier path to all of this, and might delay the rate hiking cycle more than the market currently believes. jonathan: there's more debate to this than i think some people might imagine. you think tapering is actually bearish for treasuries? because some people are taking the other side of that. lisa h: hard to say right now because we had the selloff, and now we have had the rally, so where does that actually leave us? i think the fed is going to try to focus in on the size of the balance sheet is going to remain extraordinarily large, so the incremental flow that will take down $10 billion per month perhaps, it will take close to a year to actually taper.

the real question is what happens after that. last time they waited a year to actually start hiking rates after they finished the tapering cycle, but also last time around, they started hiking rates, and then they also started reducing their balance sheet fleet area so i think they're going to try to sequence this in a much more extended way , and that is probably in our view going to result in a higher inflation backdrop then the market has become accustomed to over the last decade. we are not talking about pernicious 5%, 6% inflation, but we think the inflation regime for the next several years is probably closer to 2.5% versus the 1.5% we have been in previously. lisa a: we are focusing a lot on the 10 year yield. some people might say that's the one metric in markets? and yet, this underpins people's call when it comes to stocks, when it comes to currencies. increasingly, this one of the most import active to keep an

eye on. we talk about the demand side, how much the fed is buying, and yet the supply side is also important. we came into the you're talking about fiscal stimulus that was way above where we are seeing it come in now. how much does that play a factor in this, the idea of that supply of treasuries in the market probably will decrease more than people expected, or at least not go as high as people expected? does this lead naturally perhaps to a lower yield then might have otherwise naturally been the case? lisa h: absolutely, but i do think some of that has been discounted. when we started the year, we will talk -- we were talking about an infrastructure package of $3 trillion. rates were significantly higher. that has to some degree and marginalized. now we are talking about a 550 billion dollar package. who knows where this is going to end up? the conversation changes week to week. but at this point, i think the

market expectations for another large fiscal plan has been dampened to some degree. two if we got something significantly larger, i think that would need to be discounted into the rates markets. jonathan: love this quote. "the extent to which treasuries will be driven by the fundamentals is as much of an unknown as the actual data itself at this stage." that's the problem, isn't it? lisa h: that's absolutely right. that is why that fundamental divergence i mentioned, when you look at a model over 10 years should be and where they are today is probably as wide a cap as it has been. when you look over long-term, more structurally, those do tend to converge. that doesn't mean tens go right to the fair value model, but it does mean we start to see 10 years drift higher in the next few months. jonathan: always enjoyed catching up with you. send our best to the team. just to reiterate and repeat that line from bmo strategist

ian lyngen, than of the road to clients, "the extent to which treasuries will be driven by the fundamentals is as much of an unknown as the actual data itself at this stage. " that is a big issue for everybody in this market. tom: david rosenberg publishing moments ago the same idea. he looks at labor and wage dynamics, and he is vicious. he just says stop hyperventilating about higher inflation. he's going the other way. jonathan: dan iverson, pimco legend, just seeing that now. "there's a lot of uncertainty on inflation, and one of our base cases is the relationship between home prices and rents. there may be more sustained inflation pressure from the rental side. lisa a: one of the biggest homeowners out there raised rents by 8% in one month, in april. this idea that this feeds into base costs. how does this affect the

stickiness of the underemployment, the fact that people need to demand higher wages in order to make it worthwhile for them to go back to work? this could bleed through to a higher inflationary pressure. jonathan: as rent becomes more insensitive -- more expensive, renters become more concerned about sticky inflation, pushing the 10 year to 1.75%. a lot of coulds in this. tom: i go to wages. i go to would labor. that is the foundation. jonathan: your bond market unchanged. for all the talks that we must go higher, yields are at 1.2272%. that line from ian lyngen and the team over at bmo, the extent to which treasuries will be driven by fundamentals is as much of an unknown as the data itself at this stage, went to get they had around. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ready. the u.s. senate is on a path that could lead to a vote this

week on the $550 billion infrastructure package. negotiators finished text of the bill yesterday. a crucial step towards even's will passage. republican senator mitt romney says the other side got everything they wanted after the senate vote. final action would not take place until the house returns from recess. the u.s. has formally blamed iran for the attack of an israeli linked anchor -- linked anchor. u.s. navy experts say they believe the ship was struck by a drone, killing two crewmembers. iran has denied response ability. china is now in the midst of its oddest coronavirus outbreak since emerged in the late 2019. there are cases in 14 of the countries -- of the country's 42 provinces.

it is the biggest acquisition ever yet for square, the digital payment platform led by twitters jack dorsey. square has agreed to pay $29 billion for australian bu nowy -- -- buy now, pay later company after pay. simone biles withdrew from most of her events because of mental health issues, but she will compete in the balance beam final tomorrow. bilws -- biles won the bronze on the beam in rio four years ago -- in rio five years ago. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think there is some reason to be cautious, but we do think that activity levels and hong kong will can benefit from some

of the tension here sitting at the moment between china and the u.s. jonathan: that was the hsbc cfo, leaving behind a difficult for hsbc and others dealing with what is happening in china. live on tv and radio this morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your equity market, up 19 on the s&p. we advanced by 0.4%. in the bond market, 1.72% -- 1.2 to 70% -- 1.2272%. tom: ism, doesn't matter this morning? jonathan: yes it does. what does output look like? what do prices paid look like? all of that matters. tom: we will have coverage for you on radio and television. my book on the summer was of president xi, and she called it the third resolution.

somewhat expert on the gray new larry is leland miller -- the gray new larry t is leland miller ash the granularity -- the granularity is leland miller. how does washington react to what they see in beijing? lelandl: you've obviously got -- leland: you've obviously got these nasty crackdowns on the tech and education sector. at the same time, some of the numbers we are look at are not as bad. you had a recent rr cut, and that made people think they must be doing poorly. services are doing a little bit better, so we are not as negative on the actual underlying economy because of these awful headlines coming from every direction. tom: what do you do if you are advising tim cook of apple?

what is the leland miller perspective for bank of america companies who have this codependency with beijing? leland: apple is almost unique in that it figured out a bunch of years ago that it needed to have a contingency plan, but it's need for production in china is so big that it really can't just move things. so i think that apple is doing is what they can in terms of trying to create other markets where they can produce so they don't have so much of an emphasis on reliance in china, but they produce so much, you can't just move everything to vietnam or somewhere in southeast asia. so they are doing the best they can. but if you are not apple, you should be way down the road in terms of contingency planning just see you don't have overreliance on china for the market, for the production, because all kinds of different things are going on from trade wars to geopolitical tensions. lisa: we talked about the

potential slowing down of the economy. the data seeming to confirm that, that we got overnight. how much does this matter, and how much is the focus squarely on the regulatory regime, the fact that there does seem to be a shift from president xi jinping? leland: there's definitely a shift. the question is, is this step one of 12 steps when they keep ramping up crackdowns between now and the party congress? or is this their attempt to try to fix problems during what is basically a bit of a hiatus from disastrous headlines? a recovery from covid, there's a global recovery going on now. to some extent, this may be beijing seeing a window to try to do some of the things they push top for a long time. -- they pushed off for a long time. it is more likely that this is the first of many steps, so i think you will have to watch for not just a regulatory crack on, but whether this spills over into pessimism on the economy at

large. right now we are not seeing that yet, but that is something to watch for the second half of the year. lisa: what are potential regulatory measures that you expect the pboc to consider an xi jinping to signal? leland: i think the most important thing will be signaling a continued pull away from a reliance on the united states or the west. all the headlines of the past couple of years h -- the past couple of years have been how the u.s. is considering throwing china off its markets and other aspects of the relationship. would beijing has to signal is that china can go its own way. that is not completely true, but that is the signal he has to be sending. china can do its own way as they enter a very politically sensitive near next year. jonathan: i am trying to understand what is happening on the ground in the country at the moment, and i am not getting a lot of information. the spread of the delta variant supposedly from the airport in

nanjing and the restrictions we are starting to see, what are you hearing? leland: we have a china beige book covid tracker. we ask our corporate networks, we saw the spike in guangdong two weeks before was announced affecting the ports with shutdowns. there looked like there was a bit of an outbreak going on. it is hard to know what is a mildly serious outbreak in something bigger because they like to crack down. they see six cases and they shut things down. so it is watching the spikes in our covid tracker to see what is the role of this thing come of the ebb and flow, and what looks like it could the a serious bite that is going to affect economic at betty -- economic activity. jonathan: is this a threat to

economic growth in china for the coming months? leland: absolutely. we know how incredibly contagious the delta variant is, and that is what china is dealing with right now. they have a vaccine, but not really a vaccine. it doesn't show anywhere near the protection that all these other vaccines being used in the united states and elsewhere are boasting. so there's a real worry about this. what you're are going to see from china is a continued very aggressive shutdown response every time they see a small outbreak. what does that do? it's throws off commerce. as further off the economy. it is going to affect macroeconomic activity. we haven't seen that yet, but what we are seeing now is something to watch going into september because this is something new. jonathan: especially given the efficacy rates compared to say pfizer, dharna and much of the west -- pfizer and moderna in

much of the west. thank you. going through the crisis, the pandemic, two-year some of these cities people had never heard of, and then to hear the population of these cities, nanjing, 8.5 million people. these aren't small places. tom: i was sitting in shanghai wants, and someone turned to me and said we've got to go east 70 mile,s. and i said come i don't know the town. he said it is one of their 14 pittsburghs. that sort of brought it home. jonathan: and we got to work our way through some issues here. where the delta variant would meet. lisa: if you think about it, it is something like 10% of global gdp. this really leaves the united states as a swing factor in terms of economic nine is a leading global growth -- economic dynamism leading global growth. jonathan: equity futures up 16 on the s&p. we advanced by 0.3%.

yields higher by almost a basis point. heard on radio, seen on tv, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 60 minutes away from the opening. equity futures positive, up .4% off the back of the six straight month of gains. into the bond market, 25 basis point move lower last month. yields down to 1.2272. that is how we kick things off this monday morning. into payrolls this friday. the median estimate dipping down to 888,000, just south of 900,000. tom: let us return to may 7 of 2021. the survey was one million and

it came it a little lower. stephen stanley sobered up that day with amherst pierpont, he joins us right now. why is this time around different than the joy of may 7 2021? stephen: that was the day we realized how severe the supply-side constraints were on the labor market and as an economist i have been trained, the fed economists have been trained for decades. when you look at the payroll numbers of the employment rate, what you're trying to get out is the strength of demand in the labor market. we knew demand was strong in the spring. we had seen a big payroll number the month before. what we learned in the intervening months is demand is very strong but there have been severe supply-side constraints. people are not flocking back into the labor force in the numbers we had hoped for the

reasons everyone suggested. health concerns, childcare issues, and supplemental unemployment benefits. the later two of those should be starting to ease. the supplemental unemployment benefits have expired in half the states. that is one story we are likely to see in july. the other one with regard to payrolls is a seasonal report. the seasonality around education workers is pretty extreme. they are not on the payroll in the summer. to the extent schools are not operating fullbore, you would have a smaller number of education related layoffs in july and therefore the seasonal adjusted number in july for the education workers is likely to be up sharply. jonathan: you're anticipating the supply-side of the economy to respond from september onwards. if it does not can you see wage pressures persisting, this

inflationary pressure persisting in a way that could shape the conversation at the fed? stephen: that me -- that may be the problem for the fed. as long as demand is as strong as it has been, it is a pay me now or pay me later. either we will get a strong recovery in economic activity at the supply-side normalizes, or if it does not we will see bottlenecks that generate wage and price pressures. neither of those scenarios is consistent with the sort of monetary policy the fed is running. jonathan: there is very little they can do about the supply-side of the economy. if they let demand rip long enough the supply-side eventually response. if the participation rate does not recover that changes the path of things for the federal reserve. at what point do you think that conversation could gain more traction. is that a year end conversation or a new year conversation? stephen: they've been pointing to september when school starts

again and unemployment benefits expire in other states. let's see what happens in september. i think things may pick up before september. if they do not and we are talking about these issues in october and november, i think the fed definitely has a cup -- definitely has a tough conversation around that. lisa: you've mentioned the enhanced unemployment benefits rolling up in september and a number of states have already ended them, and studies have shown they have not added more jobs than other states and are not necessarily on the forefront. does early data suggest there is more slack in the economy or less lack than people think? stephen: it may be early to tell. obviously the july number will be the first one where we get a gate -- where we get a gauge on that in terms of the big national data. we have definitely seen impacts on the claims numbers. we know fewer people are collecting benefits. the presumption is a lot of them would want to go out and get a

job. there are certainly plenty of openings. we will see what happens. you have to give it a month or two before we have a better sense of what is going on. lisa: the inflationary pressures we are seeing in wages, we've been talking about goldman sachs raising their salaries. credit suisse saying they will also pay additional associates about a hundred thousand dollars per year. is this just isolated to white-collar jobs or are you seeing it consistently and evenly throughout all careers? stephen: i think most of the headlines over the last few months have been on the lower end of the spectrum. the walmarts of the world and the fast food restaurants and a lot of across the restaurant industry having to raise wages to get people in the door. i do not think it is just white-collar or blue-collar or service sector. it is across the board. part of what is going on, this

is directly applicable to the wall street headlines, is after the pandemic people are re-examining the whole work/life balance and it may be people are inclined to work less, or if they are going to work hard, they want to get compensated more for it. let's see how that plays out. as the dust settles and we get back to normal it may take a couple of years before we have a good handle on that. that is something you could see is a big factor for the economy moving forward. tom: stephen stanley, a sophisticated monday question. which is the course -- which is the horse and which is the cart? if there is inflation that is negative does that read to wage increases, or is there some other mystery thing that leads us to a wage breakout? stephen: there are two things that should be driving that wage picture. one is the inflation story, and

in particular inflation expectations. that is why the fed is so focused on that. if inflation bulges up once and people do not expected to last they will not necessarily be storming into the bosses office and saying i need a raise to make up for this 5% inflation we will see forever. the second is the leverage workers have the labor market. right now the labor market is as tight, if not tighter than any we have seen in decades. workers have a lot of leverage in that environment. we will see if that persists, if it does, i think workers will continue to be able to demand higher wages, and then you do run that risk of one step in front of the other and you get wages going up in inflation and back to wages. you end up, if you done arrest that, you end -- if you do not arrest that, you end up in the

1970's. jonathan: it is as tight as it ever has been and you think that can persist. you think the fed is wrong. when you think they will break down to your point of view of the world? stephen: i do think the fed is looking at it correctly. i think they are looking at the way i have indicated at the outset, the way we've always looked at it. you focus whatever you're looking at in terms of level of unemployment, basic job growth is only an indicator of labor demand. i think they are coming around. if you look at three or four meetings ago, all jay powell was talking about was the on employment rate was too high and even the stated unemployment rate understates the health of the labor market. with each successive meeting he started talking little bit more, acknowledging labor demand is strong. i think they get it. they are coming around slowly to that point. as you mentioned it seems like it is probably into the summer

as him of the special factors should be starting to fade that they will be able to focus on what is really going on. jonathan: what is your liftoff call for rates? stephen: i still think it is next year? my first rate is june -- my first rate hike is june, the middle of the year. we should have -- jonathan: we should have started there. stephen stanley of amherst pierpont. june of next year. that would be quite a conversation at the federal reserve. tom: there are a lot of views out there. august is he was on next, what will their view be, we do not know. jonathan: everyone is pointing to september. the doves and the hawks pointing to september. lisa: implicit in his call, there is a lot there. also the idea he thinks the labor market is as tight as it has ever been.

that is a huge call and it raises the question, what is the consequence of the federal reserve failing to see that? is the consequence rampant inflation or is it not necessarily that big of a consequence? where's the balance of risk that would prompt them to raise rates so soon comtrade everyone's expectations? jonathan: if you believe the labor market is tight you have to believe the participation rate does not recover, and if you believe the fed has to go early, is june early? is that the earliest they could possibly move. not the base case for the consensus view right now. lisa: is a great point because it raises the question, what would it take to raise the participation rate? what is the obstacle? if wages raise, if you end up with a robust economy, why are people not going into labor force. jonathan: do what credit suisse is doing. they raising salaries to 105,000 and 100,000 for first years.

i am joking because it is the whole analyst class. tom, you've said it, if you want them to come, raise wages. tom: what i would suggest into this august, we are completely data dependent like we have never been. we will stagger to ism, stagger to claims, stagger to cpi. lisa: a lot of staggering. jonathan: is what you do when you come out of the bar, isn't it? tom: i wouldn't know. jonathan: kathy jones will be joining us at the top of the hour. i will catch up with her, i will catch up with mike schumacher and jack caffrey. will do the bond side and the equity side to kickoff august in a beautiful new york city. this is bloomberg.

ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. senate is on the verge of giving president biden a big win. lawmakers are heading towards passage of a $550 billion infrastructure bill that would provide the biggest infusion of federal spending on public works in decades. the money would fund roads, and the power grid, and a lot more. the bill would still need to take -- to be passed by the house which will not take it up until next month. last week, the securities and exchanges commission increased disclosure requirements for chinese companies that want to list in the u.s.. that came response to beijing's clampdown on private industry. in turkey, wildfires are raging for a six day. several of the country's beach destinations. seven people have been killed in a number of tourists fled in small boats. temperatures over 100 degrees

and strong winds are making matters worse. the u.s. women's soccer teams hopes for a gold medal have been crushed. canada beat the u.s. 1-0. the u.s. will now play for the bronze medal on thursday. canada will play australia or sweden in the final on friday. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i am very much encouraging all employees to get vaccinated.

it is very important. it is possible we will come in with the vaccine mandate. we will certainly be very considerate about the best thing for all employees. we've not made a final decision yet. tom: the gentleman from visa, al kelly, managing the message for corporate america on vaccinations. dow futures up 84, the vix 18.61. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. at 10:00 we will get the first data for august, the ism data. right now in the pandemic, atrium is at charlotte, north carolina, very prosperous north carolina. we are thrilled she can join us. katie, it is about zip codes. up 12 zip codes -- you line up

12 zip codes and the spread is extraordinary that you and other health officials will do. across five zip codes you go from 20% vaccinated to 50% or so. how do you motivate the unvaccinated? katie: we are tricky times and vaccines are essential. we are seeing big upticks in number of hospitalizations and no hospitalizations can prevent that. it is continuing to educate, continue to have conversations with community and engaging peers in the community to have those conversations. as a physician, some people respond to science and things like that, but a lot of people respond to their next-door neighbor or their family member. making sure we are engaging those communities and having those discussions, it is the hard work of getting people vaccinated, but it is so necessary. tom: are they going to respond to people like the gentleman from visa, are they going to

respond to big corporate america, are there going to respond to middle business or small business? katie: the more people that get vaccinated, the more messaging on the positive of vaccination. the protections, the ensuring safety in the workforce, more people that are moving in that direction, i think that will help with communities. you will have people that buck at that mandate messaging. the more people vaccinated, the more the dominoes fall, and how much are people waiting for full improvable from the fda or is that a strawman argument you hear thrown out as the reason for some hesitancy? certainly -- katie: certainly

one of the top reasons we hear from people waiting for full approval and that has not diminished over time. certainly doing a lot of education on that vaccine is approved under the fda as part of this public health mandate and making sure people understand the nuances. that has continued to come up as a barrier for some people. lisa: can you give us a sense of how different the delta variant is from the other iterations before? we hear about increased contagiousness and infectiousness of bunk -- infectiousness among vaccinated individuals. how significant are these infections? dr. passaretti: very significant. we know the delta spreads to two or three times more people. one infected person impacts six to eight people. much more spread, higher amounts of virus in the body. while vaccines continue to be protective, specifically against severe illness, hospitalizations and deaths, we are seeing an

increase in mild cases of covid in those vaccinated. we need to in conjunction with vaccination encourage masking for right now. tom: you are one of the nation's experts in multidrug infection where the drugs do not work on a given bacterium. bring that research, which is different come over to the next variant after the delta variant. are you people prepared for the next beast that comes along? dr. passaretti: i think delta has taken us a little bit by surprise, the rate of increase in cases in areas with low vaccination. if we do not get better at vaccination very quickly, we are setting covid up to become more powerful. super important we do everything we can right now. tom: you are in the white house today.

you are up there with the president and six other people and they are over there white house coffee. what is your advice to motivate people? dr. passaretti: we have tried a lot of things to motivate people to get vaccinated. i continue to think there is a role for education. i think in high-risk areas there is a role for making sure people are vaccinated to protect that surrounding area. i do not think there is one distinct answer. tom: to make cocktail conversation on monday morning, pay $1000 to everybody who is vaccinated until the unvaccinated you will get a thousand dollars if you grow up and get vaccinated. does that work? dr. passaretti: we have not been super impressed with how incentives -- in north carolina their million-dollar lotteries you could can win from getting vaccinated. other states have given $100. some people are motivated by

that but that has not moved the bar enough. tom: this is been wonderful stop katie passaretti, do not be a stranger. with atrium in north carolina, director of infection prevention. she is wicked expert in the frightening thing of antibiotic resistance to bacterial. covid is not a bacteria. it goes to the urgency. let's get this thing fixed. lisa: not just with respect to this. you asked the right question about further variance. it will mutate. the question is how quickly can we respond to it with vaccinations. you see the mrna technology that can respond quickly. on the flipside, how much can we get confidence publicly that you should take it, and if not what are the long-term consequences? jonathan: i think -- tom: i think $100 is an insult to most people that are unvaccinated.

lisa: what is this? pay them more? pay everyone $1000 to get vaccinated? tom: with the money we have spent through this whole thing, the fiscal largess, the new infrastructure booms, come up with a number. i did $1000 is around number. make it 2000 numbers. lisa: this goes to a philosophical question of sticks or carrots. tom: you have to have a meaningful caret. -- you have to have a meaningful carrot. lisa: tom keene's version of parenting. you get $1000, you get $1000. i think this is a careful line to to end it does stem the ideological divide and a lot of people are waiting for the fda to come up with full approval for the vaccines and then he will start getting mandates. tom: it will be a twisted

august. none of us have any vacation days left. will be here all through august. stay with us. the economic advisers. dr. fuhrman. this is bloomberg on radio, on television. ♪

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jonathan: live in new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. 30 minutes from the opening. let's get august started.

"the content of the open -- the countdown to the open" starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue, pushing ahead to payrolls friday. >> the jobs numbers. >> payrolls. >> all economists are waiting to see how the data comes in. >> the issue is not a lack of demand for workers. >> issues with labor supply. >> the functioning of the labor market. >> it will take longer for a full recovery. >> september is a time when labor supply might begin to be unlocked. >> kids are back in