>> we will -- it is beginning to slow. we are seeing it moving faster, a little bit slower on these purchases. >> the market has a view that if the fed starts hiking, they will not get many rate hikes actually done. look up the tech market takes a long time to realize that something really fundamental has changed. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: this is bloomberg surveillance, live on tv and radio, and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. in a moment, we will catch up with an equity market bull, looking for 4700 on the s&p 500. tom: we are getting these conversations in more and more, and the research is higher. earnings are better for the they go on the equity market. i would call it a resilient market. nothing really sticks out, but that is what you would expect.

jonathan: that speaks from richard clarida to tomorrow. that is a big one. the board of governors come with governor waller coming out yesterday. tom: this goes to our interviews that we have had with the vice chairman. some of those interviews rather heated. this is the great monetary economist of leadership of the fed. powell is not an economist. many of the others are very qualified, and rich clarida drives a theoretical bust at the fed. lisa: the federal reserve and how they are going to react. my question is, are we starting to see a cooling off in some of the pressure, particularly within inflation. yesterday highlighting a supply chain disruption. pressuring growth in a new way, jon. jonathan: do you want to lisa: hit tencent quickly echo lisa: i want to hit spiritual opium -- quickly? lisa: i want to hit spiritual opium. tom: where do i get in on this?

jonathan: this is the close in hong kong at 6%. lisa: spiritual opium and electronic drugs. a state owned media outlet of china included a criticism of videogames as such. honestly, any parent who has lived through the pandemic welcomes spiritual opium and electronic drugs, which is why we are hooked into fortnite. jonathan: i can't imagine admitting that on the air, lisa: go ahead please. lisa:they are not wrong. -- lisa: they are not wrong, but this type of commit occasion in state owned media -- that is the response that you are seeing in equities. jonathan: we will spend more time on this later. that's get price action on tuesday money. good morning. the s&p 500, yields higher by a couple of basis points. 1.1954. and for next change, euro-dollar 1.1843. tom: the markets again today,

particularly into claims on thursday. i'm just looking at resilient equity markets, and a dollar -- what is the dollar supposed to do, strengthen? no, but it is resilient, it has really not weakened. jonathan: your 10-year, 1.1954. lisa: the theme of the day, in my opinion, is a continuation of what we have been seeing, supply chain disruptions. how much that is going to click growth in an ongoing basis. factory orders and durable goods orders -- es, the demand is there. are the supplies there? we are not seeing it the same way. how much are prices increasing, how much our factories competing with goods and labor to get those goods in their doors? throughout the day, this is the other aspect of the story. total vehicle sales trickling out. here we are going to see also supply chain disruptions, and

frankly also chip shortages between hertz and bmw overnight. these are all things adding to an outlook that is highly uncertain for automakers. even though you had incredible demand and in currently high prices for cars. for anyone who can drive, they can go and see how expensive some of these cars have gotten. 3:45 p.m., resident biden is expected to speak on covid-19, the progress of vaccination in the united states. in florida in particular, to pinpoint one example -- it accounts for 20% of all the diagnosed new covid cases in the past week in the united states. hospitals are seeing constraints. they are seeing labor shortages, nursing issues, because their crowds are just overwhelming. this is what people are looking for to determine what the next steps are and critical this is going to get. jonathan: let's turn to price action. equity market -- looking for 4700 on the s&p. easing its price target from

4300 in the past 24 hours. the chief investment strategist joins us right now. jon, help us out. how do we get to 4700, and why the upgrade? >> thanks for having me on the show. just to let you know, when we look out, it is that resilient equities that we are seeing. the fact that we have earnings momentum here, even as the dramatic comparisons begin to ebb in the third and fourth quarter, we will still show that companies are maneuvering -- companies are maneuvering in very uncertain times. a lot of it with implementation of technology and the innovation that comes with that. tom: how far up can you go, when you look at a guesstimate forward for estimate -- for equities? can you go out six months with confidence, one year with confidence? can i get you on two or three years on standard & poor's 5000? john: i won't go to were three

years out, but i can go 12 to 18 months, we feel pretty comfortable with. the momentum of a $20 trillion plus economy in the u.s., the resilience that has been the result of the fed rescue program, and probably an overabundance of fiscal stimulus tells us that we have got a further upside here. tom: lisa, the 18 month statement by john stoltzfus i think is a huge deal. there are very few people with that courage. lisa: going forward it will be very difficult have visibility. one of the aspects of that visibility is supply chain issues. we keep seeing in reports particularly through the auto companies throughout the day -- how do you factor this in? what is the time frame from when we start talking about -- stop talking about this? john: we have to take this in context. the big problem is when you're coming out of a major crisis, you get these periods of

uncertainty, but you have to take a look and see how things have been done recently. just think back to where we were a year ago, or in march or april of last year. everybody was projecting very negatively because things were so uncertain. i go back to 2009, an early bull in 09. what played out is that we saw what the fed was doing. we looked at corporations that responded positively to it. the strength of the consumer. all of that gives you confidence and looking forward, but we are likely to be headed towards an economic recovery that turns into sustainable economic growth , at a moderate enough pace so that interest rates don't rise so much to overthrow the equity market. give it a jolt. there is always pullback, and mi ni corrections, maybe even a

correction ahead. tom said it -- resilience is a factor backed by fundamental structures in the global economy, not just the u.s. but particularly in the u.s. jonathan: that sounds like a bedtime story, the equity market bulls. let me talk to you about something that is keeping some people awake at night, and that is the delta variant. in the u.k., a reasonable template for the u.s. hospitalizations remain low as cases spike. cases have started receding, suggesting overstated downside risk from covid-19. do you think, in the words of morgan stanley, that is a reasonable template for the u.s.? john: i think it likely is. we have got to say, if you ask me what the biggest risks are here, we would say number one it is the variant, and the fact that we still don't have enough people vaccinated in the u.s. with the second shot. in addition to that, the second thing would really be overstimulation by politicians in washington that can bring

about longer-lasting inflation, but we don't think the type of inflation that we saw in the late 1970's or early 1980's, which both tom and i experience, by the way. tom: well, thank you. jonathan: i have your back, john, don't worry. even if tom doesn't. the equity market up 16 takei, with one third of 1% on the s&p. tom: you wonder where -- this is pepsico, jettisoning the juice. do you drink juices? jonathan: not too much, tom. and a lot of sugar in those juices. there is tropicana, the naked juice brand. the juice industry is valued at 4.5 billion dollars. is that the lecture pepsico, tom? -- is that the like with

pepsico, tom? tom: this is important for the surveillance team. i mean, there was a period, john, in the 1970's, where you had to choose every morning cuppa cannot or tang. jonathan: this sounds really personal. we can talk something more personal with the federal reserve, chairman waller. i think he could be ready to do an announcement by september. that depends on the next two jobs reports. if they come in stronger than the last one, then i think you have the progress that you need. payrolls friday, this coming friday, is a little bit more important than it would be for the likes of governor brainard. john: the question -- lisa: the question just is, and you have repeated this again and again, what is the market response? if we get a strong jobs number, is that positive or negative her bonds, even the fact that a sooner hike, a sooner taper might crimp growth in the long run?

jonathan: no idea is the answer to that. that is a moving target going into payrolls friday. our current meeting estimate, down north of 900 k. tom: after what we saw may 7, i don't look at any of these surveys with any kind of -- what is the standard error after what we went through may 7? jonathan: let's talk about a range. anywhere from 350 north of a million? tom: we are going to cover it, that's what i know. jonathan: full coverage coming up this friday on bloomberg tv. equities up 16 points. tom: no choice. this is a tang show. jonathan: we both know that you don't start your day with orange juice. from new york city, tom keene, lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: the surgeon covid cases

is increasing pressure on bloomberg -- on drug regulators. approval could help the biden administration wrap up its immunization drive and reassure vaccine holdouts. the british government is seeking to limit disruption to industries from the so-called -- authorities have changed the national health services mobile phone app so fewer people will be told to self-isolate. the app will now notify only those who come into contact with an infected person within two days prior, instead of the five days. a key senate republican has tested positive for the coronavirus, and that could delay the democratic plans to pass that infrastructure bill this week. senator lindsey graham and at least four other senators attended an event over the weekend with joe manchin.

if other senators has positive, that could delay the vote timetable. at the tokyo olympics, simone biles made an emotional return to the competition and won the bronze medal in the balance beam final. that comes a week after she was deft after she removed himself from several events to focus on her mental health. she won by doing a slightly watered-down version of her usual performance on the beam. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what we've learned in the

intervening months is that demand is indeed very strong, but there have been some pretty severe supply-side constraints. people are not flocking back into the labor force with the numbers we had hoped, for the reasons everyone suggested -- elf concerns, childcare issues, and the supplemental on appointment benefits. jonathan: stephen stanley. looking to a hike in the fed in june of next year. tom keene, lisa abramowicz -- the s&p 500 advancing .4%. european market, to 1.1921. euro-dollar a little mitt north, 1.10 88. jim bullard telling reuters will have -- telling reuters the fed will have to cope with more market change. it seems the st. louis fed president is on the same page as governor waller and former head

of research of the st. louis fed. those two look like they are building a partnership on that fed. tom: i would suggest they are slaves to the data like anyone else. we are starting with a key friday determinant, and frankly the auto data will be interesting, even with a chip shortage. jon, it is the granularity of data we will all have to digest. jonathan: euro-swiss maker -- euro-swiss emma lewis level this year. with some swissie strength in the mix. tom: jon and i tear up over this because this is how john and i met. with the swiss franc moving in here. jonathan: would not be surprised with that. euro-swiss right now, north of .1%. tom: let's go to washington right now. what is so fascinating about what we see in the news, the infrastructure front and center.

there is a sign always in the summer when one topic overtakes all in washington. annmarie hordern knows exactly the e word, eviction. how did we get here? how big a surprise on a tuesday in august, that there is no other topic in august but the eviction of millions of americans? annmarie: there is a lot of finger-pointing in washington about this eviction, the white house last as they telling congress you need to act or it expires in 48 hours. but really it is not a surprise, given the fact that at the end of june the supreme court had said this. washington had a month to decide what it wanted to do and how to proceed. right now there is a lot of blame going on and who should be responsible. the white house says it does not have the legal authorization to act alone. brett kavanaugh, who voted with the progressives of this up in court come just justice kavanaugh put out a memo saying they have -- this should give the state and local authorities enough time to tap all of that

funding, $47 billion worth, for rental assistance, to help with these evictions. but right now millions are facing eviction, and the white house is trying to hammer home how the state and local authorities could get that money out to landlords and renters. jonathan: senator lindsey graham testing positive for covid. we wishing the best and for a full, speedy recovery. how does this reshape the infrastructure talks with the passing of this bill? annmarie: we also should note that the good news is that senator lindsey graham also said on twitter that without the vaccine come he is sure that his symptoms would be far worse, so he does feel like he is dealing with minor symptoms. he was on the weekend gathering with other senators, on senator joe manchin's houseboat, so there is this cloud of worry that potentially there could be others that test positive. unlike the house, the senate does not have a proxy vote, so

if he is in quarantine, he would not be able to vote for the upcoming legislation where it to hit the floor. that is potentially one key issue. also the fact that he was part of that bipartisan group, a very loud voice trying to push this through and getting other republicans on board. so there is a lot of interesting facets at play because of this -- with this because without his vote it could potentially go through. also, what does it mean for other breakthrough cases on the hill? lisa: what happens if they do not pass it before the august recess? annmarie: what happens is potentially two things. they go home and deal with it when they come back, or what senator chuck schumer has said potentially is that they work through august recess. there in essence is no vacation and they will work to get this infrastructure bill through. tom: i'm just digesting in essence there is no vacation. jonathan: i just saw a report coming from london --

tom: i've been looking at that as well. there's a lot going on here that we are distracted by. ann marie, i look at the infrastructure bill in awe here. what does the end of your week look like? i cannot get a clue on the actual zeitgeist of the end of the week in august. annmarie: it is very difficult to see what the end of the week will look like because there are wildcards. yesterday senator lindsey graham getting covid, the fact that you now also have this if action moratorium obviously taking a lot of the space of the discussions that are happening in washington. you have treasury secretary janet yellen who will be speaking to house democrats today about the eviction moratorium. all the while, trying to get infrastructure through. they want and then men's on the floor. senator chuck schumer wants a vote -- they want amendments on the floor. senator chuck schumer wants a vote. tom: and marie -- jonathan: annmarie hordern,

thank you so much. tom: come on, jon, how can he aggregate his -- how can he abrogate his contract? jonathan: forcing a change, tom. going to a different program. it is the early start. tom: full disclosure, i was not bragging on tencent and the opening of gains. lisa and i have been going back and forth. it is a pendulum of parcheesi. these kids have to get off their games and get back to real boardgames. in the summer you wasted an entire summer playing parcheesi. jonathan: lisa, the floor is yours. lisa: i've spent so many hours playing parcheesi, i've gone cross eyed. you try to get your pieces into the homebase and you have four or five pieces. the pandemic hit, and we outsourced parenting while you try to work to videogames, which

is an opium or drug or whatever the chinese official media -- they are not wrong, we just don't talk about it too loud. jonathan: the fact that it got pulled so quickly in the online edition speaks to maybe the reporters got -- took it a little bit too far. that is what we here at bloomberg this morning. lisa: i wonder how coherent their effort is, how much they understand what the ramifications of their words -- i'm talking about chinese regulars -- will be on markets. it feels a bit haphazard, if you will. jonathan: we will catch up with blackrock. she doesn't seem this that she doesn't think this stops anytime soon. that it will soften the blow here in there, on the economic side at least. that's get our teeth into this market. the s&p 500 with a lift of .4%. john stoltzfus on this program 25 minutes ago. tom: he is bullish.

he has been bullish. he has the courage to be in the market, and also the courage to play parcheesi. jonathan: this show, seriously -- from new york city, for our audience worldwide, a beautiful new york, on tv, on radio. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city, here is tuesday money price action. good morning. equity futures advancing a third of 1% on the s&p full small caps outperform come up .7%. don stoltzfus of oppenheimer on the show 30 minutes ago. an upgrade from him. the cool is on the fundamentals. let's talk about the fundamentals, and this market. the bond market, for me with the lot of the past week. i much of the treasury market raised on the fun muscles is as much of an unknown as the fundamentals of the incoming data itself? your yield right now, the break on yesterday, 19 21.

-- 1.1921. the back end of march, now 1.8638. the real question for me at this point, if you really look at the treasury market focus purely on the fundable to avoid country, where this is happening elsewhere. every single part of this bond market in germany yesterday was negative. with the 30-year yield below that line, tom, and right now 0.005%. just stating the obvious, you cannot take the treasury market and say it trades purely on the fundamentals of the u.s. economy when you have this happening. tom: channeling this this morning, i look at the swiss 20-year, the proxy on that. they are really buttressed about new lows, a new greater negative. it is different than what we see

in the united states. jonathan: breaking down over in germany, we're talking about maybe getting closer to zero on the german 10 year come and where back to -47, basically in line with the policy rate of the ecb. tom: on that report, joseph lavorgna joins us, the chief economist for his public service at the white house regionally. i want to talk to you about the mystery of this august, the mystery of the q4 as well. how is your q4 right now? -- how opaque is your q4 right now? joseph: it is somewhat opaque. gdp growth has been over 12% the last four quarters, i've been of the view that the growth -- the growth in the economy was at its peak in q2. i'm more worried about growth in 2022, and that is what the u.s.

bond market and global bond markets are sensing, that growth is going to weaken quite sharply with this bull flattening and inflation will be transitory. that's what the markets are telling us. tom: is it a weakening back to the potential gdp, or let's say 3%? what is the level of weakening, the scale you would presume? joseph: this year growth, we had growth at maybe 7%, 8%, the next year and thinking growth is 2% or less, which is not far from the administration's long-term forecast. that reflects that we are borrowing from the future because we have had people who have been and a bill to spend until recently beat -- we have been unable to spend until recently because of the pandemic, they have been locked up. his purchases is about four to five points above their longer-term gdp trend. if you look at when the savings went from 34% down to 9%, we have had annualized consumption

gains, 21% real. it is mostly in goods. so we are borrowing from the future, and that is why next year growth will slow quite sharply. jonathan: how do you think the federal reserve operates in the kind of environment that you have just described? joseph: they don't do anything, jonathan. they stay on hold, they continue to pump liquidity into the system. they don't taper, they don't tighten. what we have seen consistently from those late march, early april highs is the market is priced consistently, the -- thinking the market would basically -- that the fed rather would tighten rates like it did in the last cycle. just the other day we were below 1.50. my guess is that we don't get a tightening until after the election. tom: this goes to the heart of what you mentioned before, which is the gentleman from st. louis disagrees just flat out this agrees with joe live warn you.

-- with joseph lavorgna. jonathan: i imagine you don't mind that at all. you said no tightening, no tapering. you don't think we get a taper here at all? joseph: not until we know what the contours of the budget deal are, because the fed will treat the lack of a deal as being contractionary. even though we are in the midst of debating what happens on the infrastructure side, the bigger part of the package, we will not know what that looks like if we get it. it will likely lead to reconciliation until maybe mid-october, early november. i think the fed will sit and wait until things evolve, and it will be hard for the fed to taper in a slower growth environment, especially over the next few months, and then job growth slows as well. jonathan: this won't be lost on you. no tapering. the other call, no rate hike until after the next election. joseph: it sounds aggressive,

but if you look at the last two cycles, the average time from the last rate cut was seven years. it is not that unusual the last couple of cycles. lisa: why are some people wrong who are saying that the balance of risk is too it -- is to much higher inflation, especially with the fed so dovish and so willing to wait? what is wrong with that call? it seems like you disagree. joseph: the thing is, we have never had a global lockdown of the economy where you have gotten these bottlenecks and demand has been much stronger than people expected. the government has provided a tremendous amount of assistance. it is easy to see why prices are rising. if i'm wrong on inflation, it's because perhaps we have spent too much. this is sort of the larry summers argument. the evidence is seen in but the cbo next year was saying the out but gap looks like. -- the output gap looks like. the economy is two points above its long-term potential. that is the highest since 71. it is possible if we get more

fiscal stimulus come you could build disinflation dynamic in the system. most people are not fully appreciative of the unique situation we are in, and the fact that much of the liquidity we have had at this point has gone into assets, both equities and real estate. lisa: i hate to use the word transitory, but let's talk about transitory. at what point do you look at the near term influences on the economy. i'm talking about supply chain disruptions. gentleman from st. louis, tom said, monetary policy -- how do you factor in some of these disruptions, seen as persisting longer than many people had expected? joseph: i would just give it time. what we saw with lumber, which is the poster child for bottlenecks, where prices basically collapsed. i have argued we will see more of that on the semi conductor site and other parts of the economy. it just needs to take time. the expectation side of it is important, and when we look at the tips curve, the tips curve

is inverted. let's say the markets are always right. there is no evidence that anybody believes this is permanent, and because expectations oftentimes can be self feeding and self-sustaining, those expectations are likely to keep inflation low, and as supply comes on, you will see the price is moderate. tom: none of this is in the economic textbooks. this is all absolutely original that we are dealing with right now. how do you interpret the real yield? are you looking at the nominal rate, or are you taking out the inflation expectation? which of those two dynamics will adjust the real yield? joseph: i would say just focus on the real yield, the real yield has been falling as inflation spec tatian's have edged up a bit. that is evidence that the market does not believe that you are going to have very strong growth going forward. i hate to say these words, but it is the secular stagnation thesis. that is what the market is

saying, and you can see it more broadly in the slope of the curve as you highlight in germany and elsewhere. you have a bull flattening yield curve. it is not an inflation story, it is a growth story. there are not any alternatives and there is a tremendous amount of liquid it the market. jonathan: fantastic to catch up. really good to hear from you, sir. within 24 hours, we have had two widely different views. stealing -- stephen stanley looking to a hike of jan year, and then you have joseph lavorgna talking about no hike through the entirety of the first administration. -- the first the ministration of president joe biden. tom: i think it shows where we are a original this national -- natural disaster is that we are living in. i'm sorry, i'm not into giving an opinion here in any way, shape, or form. we don't know. jonathan: some of the signs that came out of yesterday, slightly

encouraging. in the industry commentary that we got, lisa. this line stood up for a lot of people. the supply slowly filling up, like a water hose starting upstream and slowly flowing downstream. the situation is progressing. we need to hear so much more of that over the next several months. lisa: you also so in moderation how much prices were going up. to speak to that point, that some of these pressures do seem to be moderating, and speaking to joseph lavorgna's point, that these issues are temporary. i do want to say that it depends on inflation, what you think the fed will do and whether we are in a new regime or going back to an old one, or if it is a series of lower lows when it comes to the neutral rate, how much debt there is, jon, and how much there is to risk. jonathan: clearly waiting a long time. tom: i don't think that really outlines what he said, jon, a long, long time for joseph

lavorgna's outlier. tom: we went there -- jonathan: we went there last time, didn't we? tom: it is a great missed call over the last number of years. jonathan: the issue people are raising this time around is that we have a set of policymakers conditioned around the previous cycle, implementing policy about mistakes they made previously, and moving at a very different pace. tom: when yields broke yesterday, you and i were looking at a two cent spread to go to .99. that is where we are. jonathan: from new york city, this morning, good morning. alongside tom and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we have dropped .4% on the s&p. in the fx market, euro-dollar ferment by about .1% -- firmer by about .1%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden and type

white house officials with a whiff of it -- the moratorium on evictions just expired, and the president is pressing federal, state, and local government agencies to act quickly from -- to stop tenants from having to move from their homes. preparing more oversight of cryptocurrencies to protect investors, gary gensler has unusual expertise in -- he signaled he is not on board with the hands-off oversight approach many enthusiasts would like to see. he said that investors must be protecting against fraud. the labor union may get the chance to reserve its loss to amazon for them a federal official has recommended overturning the results of a union election at an amazon warehouse in alabama. the national labor relations board says the election should be run again. amazon can appeal that decision.

the union accused the company of making antiunion threats. and standard chartered overcame economic headwinds across asia, allowing buy back shares and planning for dividends. the bottom line was boosted by reduced credit losses. meanwhile, the broke management union posted a 20 said percent increase in operating income. in china, shares of tesla fell as much as 11% today. state media said that videogames are a spiritual opium and electronic drug. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we want to strongly recommend

that people wear masks in indoor settings, even if you are vaccinated. this is particularly true if you might be around anyone unvaccinated. >> i believe it is in your business interest to run a vaccine-only establishment. it's very simple. you can operate a restaurant. just say you have to show you are vaccinated when you walk in the door. jonathan: bill de blasio and andrew cuomo, another shift from last week. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. u.s. equity market up .4%. still sub 120 at 1.9 -- -- still sub 1.20, at 1.1954. tom: i like watching euro there. 1.19 is a big deal there, jon. the other thing i would note here is the vix, 18.69, shows a

stasis before the labor report. this is an honor. christopher is someone who puts travel out -- downstate, he holds court at johns hopkins and the bloomberg school of public health come is elite epidemic ella just. we are thrilled -- of public health, is a lead epidemic ella just. the idea of the labor of new york city and the governor of new york state saying public enterprise, get your act together. is there a history in the pandemic that public enterprise can provide public health policy? >> well, you know, what we of course want to see is the federal government leading on this, having consistency across the state, but we have never had that in response to the coronavirus. so i think what you are seeing is that people are reluctant to speak to the need for national

mandate, asking on immunization, and so it really has been up too much more local entities and the private sector to step in. i think what you're seeing is that we know these vaccines are highly safe and effective. these are the vaccines of emergency use authorization. our only way out of this is much higher immunization rate then we have been able to achieve. but in the absence of doing better on vaccines, we are going to see things like vaccine mandates in the private sector. tom: if the senator, mr. graham, and the picture bank of the dreaded new york yankees, mr. cole, if they get covid and our find, how does that fix into this mix -- fit into this mix? dr. beyrer: in terms of hospitalization, pneumonia, deaths -- as it turns out, people who have been immunized

and still get covid as senator graham did, and unfortunately it looks like they can also transmit it. so they are likely to have a mild, much attenuated course, but still if you have it, what that means is masking is still important. the senator's self-isolating now for 10 days. that's the right thing to do because he could very well be infectious for others. what is not happening is that he is not getting pneumonia and he is not in the hospital. when we look at who is in the hospital and who is on a ventilator, it is overwhelmingly the unvaccinated. that's a tragedy. lisa: we have heard from tony fauci that we will not see additional lockdowns, yet florida is seeing constraints on hospital staff as they deal with the surge, the intake patients coming in their doors. what is the potential threshold at which point it becomes a public health problem once again? we don't want to go back to a time when you're setting up tents and hospital beds outside

in order to do with capacity. dr. beyrer: we were down to about 12,000 infections per day. we are now back to 80,000 infections per day. we are -- that is largely because of this more infectious delta variant. we had seen really a stalling in the vaccine effort, but it has been picking up in the last two weeks or so. fortunately, people are starting to move. as far as lockdowns and shutdowns, i think dr. fauci is generally right, but the exception that is likely to be where vaccine coverage remains too low. in places like florida, other states in the south. we have already seen missouri and arkansas with low immunization coverage. lisa: the emotional effect of going back to wearing masks is greater than i thought. i was speaking with my colleague here about that. a lot of people wondering, are we going back to an era that seems endless, the way it did a

year ago? there is a question -- how long has the pandemic been prolonged as a result of the delta variant? dr. beyrer: there is no question it has been prolonged. it is not just the variant. the reason these variants have emerged is because there are so many susceptible people out there. we have to remember that as challenging as it is in the u.s., in much of the world there is virtually no efficacy, no high efficacy -- people are using chinese vaccines, which are not holding up well against the variant. they are using astrazeneca, which does not hold up as well. what we really is high efficacy vaccines, otherwise we are going to see more variants. there's already a new lambda variant that is emerging that may be a variant of concern. this is going to keep happening as long as there are so many susceptible people. our way out of this is to do much better with immunization and to do much better with the

higher efficacy vaccines. jonathan: is the experience in the u.k. the last couple of months a decent template for the united states? dr. beyrer: i think you are seeing them already thinking about a booster, because of concerns about the need to protect the population. apparently china is also looking at boosting with mrna. israel is planning on looking at a booster. jonathan: i ask that because cases have rolled over significantly over the last couple of weeks. that is what i mean by saying are the u.k. templates what we might see here through august? dr. beyrer: it could be for much of the country. the immunization rate has been high in the u.k. we still have areas that have much lower rates, positioned where the u.k. might be a good template. jonathan: thank you, sir.

your equity market looks like this, up 16 on the s&p. for the market strategist, tom keene, many including morgan stanley look to the u.k. as a template for the united states. for that very reason, many people in the market still construct that for the near term because of exactly that. tom: i think the constructive wing is tangible in the developed world. to me, jon, it is the newsday every day. this significance yesterday of mayor de blasio and governor cuomo reading the right act to the restaurant business to get their act together was really jonathan: critical. do you think the mayor of new york city has -- tom: i think it is a sterling relation, yes. jonathan: is that said, though, that for the moment we are in right now, that that relationship would really matter? it would really count? and it hasn't been built up. lots of words. you're telling me there is a commercial break.

tom keene, leitz abramovitz, joining me. tom: we should get a parcheesi board. jonathan: john stoltzfus of oppenheimer. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> i would argue the labor market is as tight, if not tighter, than any we have seen in decades. >> we are already in an economy that has seen peak growth on a quarter to quarter basis, and it is beginning to slow. >> we are seeing the fed move a little bit faster, little further to pull back on these purchases. >> the market has the view that if the fed starts hiking, they will not be able to get may rate hikes actually done. >> it will take a long time to realize that something fundamental has changed. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 17 on the s&p, advancing 0.4%. we've had a look at 4400 over the last month or so on the s&p. the calls keep coming through.