growth, that can spiral out of control. >> there always pullbacks and corrections. >> the fed wants to hike rates. >> my guess is we don't get a tightening until after the next presidential election. . >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. equity futures down. down a couple points on the s&p 500. vice chair rich clarida, a few hours away. tom: it will be an important speech. i suggest it is in the overlay on what we see with the delta variant. the indonesia headline we saw 10 minutes ago with the deaths on indonesia, the combination of

claritin and the delta variant, it gives you more negative yield. jonathan: let's do the tom keene victory lap. $1000 per employee going to get the vaccine. [laughter] tom: it took you forever to get to this. lisa: carry-on. tom: i want to say this again and this is not an original idea, this is monopoly money. what is so silly here is the billions of dollars and trillions of dollars we cannot contribute to who are rental grieved and all of that. get the money, get them vaccinated. the key thing with the vanguard announcement is the vaccinated get the money. jonathan: they have until october to get vaccinated. lisa, the response in a corporate america is getting face. lisa: it protects you, it protects us from disruption and it raises the bar in terms of

how much freedom they have when they get vaccinated. what i am watching is the fda. the expectation from the new york times is that the fda will grant full approval to the pfizer vaccine early next month. this may be something that triggers a greater pace of vaccinations. jonathan: we have been waiting for that. we are starting to see downgrades in china. that is worth focusing on, restrictions building in more than 40 cities. that really is worth paying attention to. tom: everybody anticipating the vice chairman's speech, i suggest it is about the weber economy. friday -- it is about the labor economy. friday is job reports. the bottom line is that there is a little bit of enthusiasm going into this report. jonathan: the adp report later this morning. jobless claims tomorrow. matt says the whisper number is

something north of 500. your equities down on the s&p 500. 11754, yields unchanged -- 11754 , yields unchanged. lisa, muted price action going into payrolls this friday. lisa: good morning, this is wednesday. i feel like we should restart, you guys are whispering about something. the u.s. adp employment change for july which we are getting at 8:15. expecting 38,000--638,000. that is the expectation among economists. friday's job reports will be key for the fed in terms of how strong it is and it could indicate if they start to bring the bond purchases. 10:00 a.m., we get indexes for july.

i'm cris. our structured cds deceleration from the increase in delta variance and the increased risk aversion. that does seem to be present in all of the reports. in china it is leading to economic downgrades. 10:00 a.m., rich clarida leaving -- delivering a speech on inflation, lies on the job reports and to see if he would be willing to taper bond stimulus. the vice fed chair as well as fed chair jay powell and john williams from the new york fed, they determine the path of the federal reserve so this will be important. jonathan: stop whispering, december the president. that is the message -- you sound like the president. that is the message i just received. that is rude. he whispers sometimes when he is giving a speech. not judging.

citi cutting -- the team led by robert bergman looking for a move and 70 basis points driven by real yield. because a it, that is their call. tom: i believe mr. look at which -- people are going to tweak around here, let we saw yesterday. we are going to get a lot of mixed reports. we are going to tweak more friday 9:00 a.m.. jonathan: 70 basis points. that will shake things up. lisa: especially from these record low yields. i don't know what could potentially change that. goldman sachs singh the negative real yield indicates stagflation. if that is the case, what could shake that perception? jonathan: they like the cyclicals. they raised japan to overweight.

they like the cyclicals story in japan. they like the cyclicals story in europe and u.k. this is how the week stacks up. the week begins this morning, the adp report comes later. vice chair rich clarida will be speaking as well. tomorrow, initial jobless claims. let's bring in jennifer lee. she joins us on the phone. walk me through what you are expecting from vice chair rich clarida at 10:00 a.m.? jennifer: i expect him to juror -- to join jay powell on the market recovery. he is probably going to suggest that the recovery is still a ways off. i am hopeful because there is a lot more debate going on within the fed. you heard from the new governor

waller saying if we get 8 million jobs in the next couple months, he would call that significant process and will start to taper by the fall. even the san francisco fred -- san francisco fed president saying there is reason to expect the -- in the labor market to become permanent. i'm not sure why some people are saying that what she said was dovish. i thought it was on the clock is shied -- on the hawkish side. i think the vice chair is probably going to support what the fed chair is saying. tom: tell me if we get a good job report how it changes fed policy and does it change your view on the american economy? jennifer: it depends what we are calling for or what we define as good. we are below expectations with our call.

under normal circumstances, that would be an amazing number. i think as long as we continue to see over 500 to 600,000 every month, steady gains cutting away at those losses of 22 million we saw last year. that to me would be further progress. whether or not that should be enough for the fed chair to drop the hint at jackson hole at the end of the month, that remains to be seen. a strong number could it that to be dropped. lisa: you see any chance real yields could rise by 70 basis points in the future? jennifer: i think there is a chance. the bond market is incredibly volatile. as long as we continue to see steady progress in the paper market, we continue to see strong data coming out of the business side, and the fact that -- households have plenty of

standings. with all the tops of stagflation and everything, they are demanding plenty of goods and services and that is huge. businesses are turning away new work. who would have thought that would happen? they don't have enough input, they don't have enough people. that is the biggest story. when we start seeing some of the alleviation in terms of pressure from the supply-side, people getting off the sidelines and back to the labor force, we could see bond yields continue to have higher. tom: -- jonathan: jennifer lee, good to get your call. looking at the bond market in italy, your two 10-year gilts, -50 basis points. -- your 10 year yield, -50 basis points. lisa: this move into negative yielding territory, this is the first time ever the italian two

year yield fell below the deposit rate. this has to do with the entire german curve moving negative, the japanese 10 is a 0%. all around the world -- what are we pricing for? it does not sound like a dynamic economic recovery. jonathan: the european central was out and he was saying basically september. september is not the time to have a conversation about -- to talk -- have a conversation about removing emergency pandemic protocol. lisa: -- it is a record looseness. what are we loosening for? if we have a record whose financial conditions backdrop, what is the goal of having booster conditions and having more qe? that is something i want to hear from fed vice chair. jonathan: tom, you keep demand

robust enough and the supply-side of the economy starts to respond over time. i guess that is the argument. tom: that was the argument one year ago. it may have been lee said that mentioned this is a new place we are in. i look carefully today at per capita deaths in louisiana and florida. i am sorry, it is not august 20 21, it is march 2021. those are grim factors. jonathan: we will catch up with steve chevron. record highs into wednesday. your equity markets down three points on s&p 500. into the bond market coming yields unchanged. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: researchers say vaccines

targeting the delta variant may not be needed. the study looked at recent samples from 98,000 people in england. they found of the vaccine protection against the development of covid symptoms was 59%, down from 83% earlier. that means that the antibody rate from current shots of this effective. in china, the largest coronavirus outbreak is hampering spending in bp economic holiday. -- spending in an holiday. the delta variant has been to almost half of china's provinces. the cdc has extended a ban on evictions in u.s. with high spread of the delta virus delta variant. -- delta variant. president biden once the new

band will face legal challenges and may be found unconstitutional. the british navy says the hijacking of a ship off of iran has ended. unidentified people were said to have boarded a ship. they left today. it took place after a possible drone strikem an -- of innate is really operated ship. iran was probably behind the attack. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> of course i made it clear that the existing moratorium was

not constitutional. it would not stand. in the meantime, what i have been pushing for, we have billions of dollars given to states to provide for rent and utilities for those people who cannot afford to stay in their home. jonathan: the president of the united states there. alongside tom keene and jonathan abramowitz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market on s&p 500 down three. all-time highs into wednesday. we are down 0.06% on futures. citi, looking for a move to 2% through 2022. euro-dollar, we are down about 0.04%. some news out of beijing on to touch. beijing subway to restrict

traffic from thursday to control the head -- the spread of the delta variant in china. we have seen more than 40 cities restrict travel across china. there restrict travel to control the virus and banks are starting to cut the outlook. cutting third-quarter growth projections to 5.1%. seeing a 4.4% expansion in the final three months down from 5.3%. these are still big numbers but the change here, tom. tom: anything quarter to quarter under 6% always gets the attention. china's 3% recession, we are not there yet. anything under 6% to gives pause to say the least. there's too much to talk about, finance, investment, international relations. and the fact that the democrats are going to lose the house. the democrats have been told by their leadership they really are

in trouble. annmarie hordern is aware this. there are 14 things to talk about, but maybe what we ought to be talking about is a pentagon officer gunned down to the pentagon yesterday. there is no other topic than crime. is that even under discussion in george washington? annmarie: it is not. to be honest, when you have headlines like that, you get worried at the moment and then go about your day because sometimes it just happens weekly, almost monthly. there was a shooting in washington, d.c. about two weeks ago, right by the lead diplomat. what you're referring to is the rising crime in urban areas. urban areas are led by a lot of democrats. what you worry is for the democratic party and what they

are trying to do is get tougher on crime. republican see this as an opening for the midterm. tom: one more question on this, nixon did this in the early 70's. he nailed this dialogue. there is not that nixonian dialogue. annmarie: there is not this dialogue right now. but there are 14 other issues on the rise right now in washington. there is the eviction moratorium, there is covid, there are a number of other issues that this administration and republicans and democrats are focused on. jonathan: but start with the eviction moratorium, how weird is it to see the president oversee ac/dc's -- oversee a cdc's decision and then he questions the constitutionality of it? he was very confusing, was it confusing for you? annmarie: it was because it was an absolute u-turn.

to have another eviction moratorium needed congressional approval. you have the administration backing the cdc and the eviction moratorium in hopes this would keep millions of renters in place. the president is talking about the obstacles. the strategy seems to be even if there are legal challenges, it will buy them time to try to get out that $47 billion that is allocated for these renters. lisa: what is the political calculus of president biden going after this approach to eviction moratorium? he is targeting republican states that are behind when it comes to ask nations. -- when it comes to vaccinations. what is the significance of that? annmarie: the president just came under a ton of pressure not just from progressives in his party but also top leadership, including nancy pelosi, when it

comes to the eviction moratorium. if the house was not able to get enough votes to push this through, then he struggled with what else can we legally do. he said he consulted legal scholars and it was between executive order or the cdc. he is even questioning whether or not constitutionally it musters enough to go through. this was the pressure of his own party. tom: what happens today? what is he did calendar starting at 10:00 a.m. today? lisa: -- annmarie: today will be more amendments in terms of the bipartisan infrastructure bill. you're not hearing much about them because they are pretty not controversial. if they want to get 60 votes, how much can you quickly temper with in order to make sure to get those votes through? that is what the rest of the week will be about. tom: this includes the eight lane expressway in the budget.

jonathan: a road you will never go on, tom. in reordering in washington, d.c. it was 8 -- annmarie hordern in washington dc -- in washington, d.c.. it was a weird ruling. lisa: it was strange but every way. what was he trying to do? why did he wait so long? why did you craft this cdc -- for the cdc craft this guidance targeted toward southern states that have been behind? he chastised republican governors for banning mask mandates. this is a complicated message. jonathan: have you seen this before, tom? a decision from a president and then he is just questioning the constitutionality? tom: you know that. jonathan: i practiced. tom: we saw this in the president before and it is the

ad hoc nature we are in. the idea of policy structure or institutional structure within politics is not there. whether it is trump republican or by the democrat. jonathan: we will build on this. let's get to the equity markets, record high on s&p 500. futures down a little bit, -.07%. into the bond market, the yield is not doing much. 11754. later this morning, a 15 a.m. -- 815 time -- 8:15, the adp report. your job reports on friday. richard clarida do, the vice -- fed vice chairman is speaking. does he keep jackson hole alive, lisa? after the government cannot and port freezing cold water on it

-- governor came out and poured freezing cold water on it. you think someone wants to take a vacation in jackson hole? [laughter] coming up, marvin barth. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city to our audience worldwide. good morning to you. equity markets slightly negative. down on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq, positive. on the russell, advancing on the nasdaq -- down on the russell. the wall of worry we will keep climbing here. people talk about that later. let's get to the bond market, i will talk about this later. the note fromciti -- from citi. 11771. lisa mentioned the short squeeze going into this market. we can talk about that.

11754 on tens, your 30 12579. dollar-china, the average you to date is 647. right now, 646 -- 646. that is immense instability. 46 cities facing a travel advisory. i think that is really important. elitist news out of beijing that they are going to reduce travel on their subway. we are keeping an eye on it, even with the instability. tom: some of the caution, the euro swiss showing strength. it happens every summer.

what it is is not baseball, it is a research report that ruins your week. not only do you have to read it, but you have to get the dixon ticonderoga number two and go over every chart in it. this research report, the author is marvin barth of barclays. marvin, awaiting supply is an absolute tour de force. let the cut to the single sentence, we are going to have a self-limiting recovery. explain. marvin: this is one of the things that i think a lot of people are missing in these inflation shocks. it is not just about the higher prices. what we have seen is a persistent sequence of downside surprises to output. this is very consistent with the

global short run aggregate supply curve shifting backward. what that means is we are still having a strong recovery. it is being limited by supply. tom: here is the money question. the idea of potential gdp, do we get a permanent shift in it to a lower potential gdp because of this pandemic? marvin: that is still a far more open question. obviously, bond markets have been gripping with that. one of the coincidences here, and it does suggest these moves to record lows in long-run real interest rates in the u.s., should be question here is that if you think about supply restraining demand right now, that is a positive signal for the future.

it means you are more likely to have a boom-bust cycle. you're more likely to have a slower developing, morag -- more sustained expansion and that is more likely to support medium-term real interest rates. even five-year real interest rates really look pretty stressed to the downside. lisa: this is confusing so please elaborate more, this idea that if you have a self-limiting recovery or you have restraints, it is not stagflationary, it is actually positive because it does not allow runaway growth to get out of hand. is that correct? marvin: exactly. you can still describe that as stagflation if he wanted to. you are getting a combination of slower growth than you expected.

that with higher inflation than you expected. that is likely to remain until we rebuild capital structures to accommodate different sources of demand. that does mean that instead of getting a big surge of demand and then potentially building up and balances that lead to a recession later, we have a slower, more drawn out expansion. it is still strong. it is like these low-carb diet. you don't get the sugar rush and the headache and crash afterward. instead, you get a nice, sustained boost to your day. lisa: if you look, perhaps that is the case in the economic standpoint. in markets, they have priced in an incredible rally and an incredible recovery. if that is not a sugar rush, i don't know what is. how sustainable is that? marvin: what are you referring

to in terms of market pricing? if you look at real yield, their pricing is not positive. if you look at risk premiums, those are starting to show some signs of concern that actually we are not going to have a sustained expansion or that there are significant growth stories -- growth worries out there. it one what did you can point to is equities and say that is pricing in a lot of upside. when you look at it in risk-premium terms, it is actually not that exuberant. take a look at earnings coming in and earnings forecast. they keep going up. if anything, they are telling us there is more upside. jonathan: turning to the fx market, is news on these currency pairs. get me excited, what are you looking for? marvin: [laughter] unfortunately, i am not sure we

can get really excited here. that is one of the key points about supply retreats. -- supply restraints. that is going to limit the ability -- ability of the countries that were galloping ahead of everyone else, like the u.s., to pull away as much as they have been from some of the softer economies out there like europe. what that means it is -- what that means is that it is going to restrain with the ability of the currencies to pricing that divergence. this is likely to continue until we do start to see real action from central banks. jonathan: do you think september could be the moment the divergence? we have the vice central bank -- we had the central bank governor sink september was not the time to talk about their emergency purchase program.

we have fed officials think september is the time to have that conversation. is that the start of this? marvin: it is certainly on the agenda. you clearly have divergences within the fed, some who would like to take a more patient approach. they have been looking back at inflation persistently over the last two decades to the downside. they are concerned we are going to see that again. these supply constraints we were talking about are all that is behind us. once you get behind that, you will get back to the low-inflation environment. we went to get the economy as much stimulus as possible. you have others who are more convinced that indeed the supply constraints are actually driving expectations and are going to permanently shift up the phillips curve and we should start moving some of that accommodation. -- accommodation earlier. that is likely to happen in the

fourth quarter this year no matter what. whether it happens at the september meeting is still open. tom: in your tour de force research piece, john maynard keynes and john hicks were in a note you were there was fixed exchange rates. we are a floating fx world. where is the float that we need to pay attention to if supplies don't come in from mars? marvin: this gets back to that point about how this restraint on growth starts to affect economies, not only in the short run in terms of constraining that divergence i talked about, but also applying pressure to those economies that have more unsustainable policies. i think one of the things that is a real concern is in the emerging-market space. right now, people are focused on the higher carrier you are able

to achieve. as long as these growth concerns continue to mount because supply is being restrained, that will put more pressure on a lot of the debtors. that is also forcing them to hike rates that is going to slow their own economies more than anticipated. that is going to put them in a catch-22 with their own debt situation. that is probably a problem that will manifest the first half of last year but it could creep in the second half of this year. jonathan: marvin, good to catch up with you. that is always the ultimate,, downside risk to private to growth, upside risk to inflation. tom: i brought up indonesia with their problems with the pandemic. probably the worst in the world. 9000 to 14,000 over the past six or seven years. that is in range and you wonder about a new breakout, the new indonesian weakness.

there is an opportunity for people that are not -- jonathan:'s central bank is offering guidance and saying we are not going anywhere for five years. they cannot do that, they need to offer some optionality. thanks move more quickly. maintaining optionality because the cycle is moving so fast and with it, more increased volatility. tom: just to give them some breathing room, give them degrees of freedom. that is something -- jonathan: 10:00 eastern, rich clarida speaks. equity futures done a single point on the s&p 500. coming into wednesday at all-time highs. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. democrats are on andrew cuomo to resign. report the state's attorney general outlines claims that he sexually harassed 11 women. he could face criminal charges. the one-time democratic star said he never touched anyone inappropriately made inappropriate sexual advances. most children who get the coronavirus recover within a week. researchers who looked at more than 1700 to children found 1.8% have symptoms that last for a week or longer -- eight weeks or longer. that suggests long covid may be less common in children. the securities exchange commission or is signaling a path for a bitcoin-traded fund. in a speech, he says an etf that

complies with the strict rules for funds could provide investors with protection. it is an attempt to phase out they were commended -- contribute to climate change. blackrock and other institutions are working on plans to -- coal-fired plants in asia. proposals are buying coal plants and closing them on schedules. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the key to nyc pass will be a

first in the nation approach. it will require vaccination for workers and customers in indoor dining and indoor fitness facilities and indoor entertainment facilities. this is going to be a requirement. the only way to patronize these establishments indoors will be if you are vaccinated. jonathan: bill de blasio there, a shift in this country. from new york city, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here is your equity market, record highs on wednesday. we are down on the s&p. the election on the euro-dollar, 118.56. on tens, 170 before. yields going nowhere this morning head of vice chair clarida speaking. tom: equities really holding up

speaks to the equity premium we are talking about with these new lower yields. right now, it is so important, the idea that we like to look at leaders and experts in their field and find out how gifted they are. we particularly look at the gifted who long ago adored manchester united. it is a story of dr. bhakti hansoti. jonathan: you want to start their? tom: this is way more important than where we are right now. jonathan: dr., forgive us. docotor, forgive us. dr. bhakti hansoti of johns hopkins. >> i was a -- girl before to

beckham was famous. jonathan: there we go. tom: that is news you need to know. lisa: can we move to covid? [laughter] tom: dr. bhakti hansoti, we have a lot of questions. i don't buy first wave, second wave, third wave. if it is not a third wave, what is it question mark just an entire pandemic? dr. hansoti: let's just call it what it is, it is an ongoing pandemic have failed to overcome. tom: if we see louisiana and florida spiking, indonesia with grim data as well, can you support the giving of money to make the unvaccinated vaccinated? is that money well spent? dr. hansoti: i think so. we are now a global community. people travel, delta spread worldwide extremely rapidly. unless we improve vaccination

rates, we will not decrease the number of circulars and virus -- of circulating virus. we have to vaccinate globally if we are going to overcome this. lisa: as tom keene lobbies for $1000 to get vaccinated, there is russian about what is more likely to get people to buy people attend get the shot. a recent kaiser survey shows three out of 10 unvaccinated individuals said they would be more willing to get inoculated if the fda approved the mrna vaccinations which could have come as soon as next month. what is your sense of how realistic it is, that that would open up a huge surge in people willing to get vaccinated? dr. hansoti: about getting the fda approval, i think it is very possible. we have more data for this vaccine and then many other studies. we are on the path for an fda

approval. let's change the likelihood of people getting their vaccines? not unless we manage the negative media around vaccine complications. individuals consistently overestimate the likelihood of getting sick post-vaccine. unless we manage that dialogue, make use of the data, i don't think we will get people to that comfort level. lisa: the delta variant has only said that communication back as breakthrough infections start to make the headlines. what do we know about breakthrough infections and how closely the government is tracking this to give us an accurate read of how effective the vaccine is at giving us a breakthrough -- and a breakthrough infection? dr. hansoti: we know what the covid positive status is, we have the data. breakthrough cases are known and

expected. what is positive is even in those breakthrough cases requiring hospitalization, we have not been seeing deaths of covid vaccinated individuals. where we are seeing deaths is unvaccinated covid positive individuals. tom: for april like you -- for a pro vax -- for a pro like you, what percentage vaccinated do you say is this excess? is 80%, 90%? dr. hansoti: traditionally the number we aim for is 80% to 90%. vaccines are part of committing transmission, the other is human behavior such as masking and social distancing and avoiding situations with a large number of individuals.

jonathan: we have to leave you there, good to catch up. dr. bhakti hansoti, manchester united fan and johns hopkins professor of medicine. i like how you did that, you teed me up to be the person -- tom: i did not know that. bend it like beckham. you can kick the ball with both sides of your feet? jonathan: we can talk about that later. i wonder how new york city is going to roll out this policy and how it affects people who come out of state into restaurants -- into new york that want to go into restaurants. lisa: we raise issues of which vaccinations are eligible. is it all three of them or do you start accepting others that are more prevalent among tourists? i am not sure what this robot is going to look like but we are moving closer to mandated vaccinations. i am wondering when we are going

to see mandated vaccines among school-age children. tom: here is a solution -- jonathan: tom is holding up the excelsior pass on his smartphone. very easy to download and fill in the details. but you have the excelsior pass, you need to have had the vaccine in new york city -- in new york state. you have not had that -- if you have not had that vaccine in new york state, you cannot get that pass. if you come from out of state, you need the excelsior pass -- do you need the excelsior pass or is that cardboard thing enough? lisa: that is enough. that is what the new york times said. it is just a threshold to try to say to people if you want freedom you have to get vaccinated. that is the clear message. whether it is for proof is unclear. jonathan: tom is going to go around manhattan and see how

effective it is. research, tom. [laughter] from new york city this morning, good morning. futures down. your s&p 500 just a tiny bit softer. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> the market really starts to doubt the potential for reflation, the potential for growth, that can fly out of control. >> there's always pullbacks and mini corrections. maybe we have a correction ahead. >> fed is as blind as the rest of us. >> my guess is we don't get tightening until after the next presidential election. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: coming into wednesday at all-time highs. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p negative three this morning, down not even 0.1%. it is onwards to vice chair clarida a little later this morning. tom: