>> we've been waiting for vaccine. we've been waiting for supply to pick up, and supply is exploding. >> we are going to see a lot of price increases in the short run. the key question is are those transitory or sustained. >> we have taken wealth from the public sector and given it to the private sector. >> the fed believes they have flexibility. >> in this world of great uncertainty, if you are pushed by what happens in one or two meetings, you really haven't got the plot. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the payrolls report 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up two on the s&p, basically unchanged. just going into the jobs report a couple of hours away. tom: equities grinding over the past couple of days to a better fix.

that is a new -- a better vix . that is an improved vix, but there is global angst as we go into this payrolls report. jonathan: record highs in europe on the equity market. record highs on the nasdaq. all-time highs on the s&p. we keep climbing that wall of worry. tom: liz ann sonders of charles schwab out on twitter with smart charts, and it's real simple. you take the yield and you flip it. . that gives you the pe. david kostin is out at 22 times earnings, partly because of this low yield and a permanent low yield regime. jonathan: david kostin looking for 4700 on the s&p this year, 4900 and year. the estimate this morning, 858,000. lisa: the worry is pervading the markets. interesting to hear economists say that the worry is positive, that when we get a hot labor market, the fact that there are these dampening factors, many

keep this economic recovery going longer not only because it keeps rates low, but keeps it from overheating. jonathan: who do you think we get an upside surprise from, governor brainard or governor waller? tom: i think it will get derailed by the centrists at the fed and by the politics of the moment, and the politics is about the primary elections of 2022. as you saw with manchin and powell today, it is all a political soup. jonathan: let's start with some price action. your equity market on the s&p 500 positive 0.05%. as i said, we come into friday at a record high. in the bond market, one point 2566% on tens. yields are high by three basis points -- 1.2566% on tens. yields are high by three basis points. lisa: we are talking about that

1.2 6% yield almost, and really i wonder how much this jobs report is going to inform that, especially after fed vice chair rich clarida came out and said it would just take a couple of meetings to really get a sense of fact that they could taper sooner. 8:30 a.m., this payrolls report. we have not been talking about income and salaries and how much we may actually start to see wages rise on a wholesale level. we have talked about labor force participation, but wages will remain in the forefront as an indicator for future inflation. at 10:00 a.m., president joe biden planning to speak. . about this labor market report how much does he do -- speak about this labor market report. how much does he plan to dovetail it into this weekend, the infrastructure bill? does he indicate some sort of cohesiveness in his party that has been increasingly bifurcated among the progressives and the centrists? i want to talk p.m. we get the real yield -- at 1:00 p.m. we

get "the real yield". we also get the baker hughes rig count. jonathan: thank you, lisa. lisa: both are important. but with u.s. oil and gas rigs, they have maintained discipline. they have not come back online despite the increase in oil prices. at what point do we get people saying let's pump? lisa: i think -- tom: i think an important conversation is one you will have with martin walsh, the secretary of labor. when do we see that? jonathan: at about 9:45. tom: this is about job formation. chairman powell has made it clear that is part of their mandate. we are nowhere near getting back to where we were february of 2020. jonathan: i'm with you. back-to-school to school is a huge piece of this. lisa has talked about this over the past few months. september is a big month. lisa: i wonder if perhaps some of the back to office plans being derailed have to do with

questions around back to school because parents are not going to want to go back to the office if they aren't sure where their kids are going to be. jonathan: subadra rajappa joins us now from societe generale. 850 8000 is the median estimate. the range is huge. it always is these days. a lot of people in this bond market wondering what moved the dial more, big upside surprise or big downside surprise. which one does? subadra: i think the bar is quite high. you need to see either at or above consensus number for today and for bond market yields to continue to rise from here on. thus far, what we have seen is more rally on bad news, doom and gloom getting priced into the bond market. for that to get unwound, you really need to see a very strong number today, and not just a headline number come up across the board. you need to see the participation rate increase.

you need to see strong evidence that people are actually coming back to work. so you really need to be strong for a report overall. tom: where does the wall of money fit into all of this? we really haven't talked about it this week, the overwhelming price action of your world, bills, notes and bonds. there's a wall of money pushing price up. subadra: it will be next week. we have the refunding auctions next week, 126 billion dollars hits the market. so the market will start to price in. but broadly speaking, i think the supply picture is quite positive in the sense that at the november refunding meeting, the fed is going to reduce options sizes, so that should be somewhat supportive to yields. they are probably thinking i should issue a lot more bond issuance over the next year, and i think the pressure is towards

modestly higher yields from here on. tom: i'm in sundering silence here, jon, about the uncertainties going into this jobs report. do we have plus or minus three basis points any clue where yield is? i don't think we do. jonathan: let me put it this way. how do we respond to a may repeat? the april number was just a monster downside surprise. subadra: i think we would see a significant rally in the bond market because there is a lot riding on this report. you need to see these two strong jobs report for the fed gets comfortable tapering asset purchases. this jobs report is going to be very important. that sets the stage for the september fomc meeting and policy action from here on. do we get 250,000 in the headline? i think that is going to reverse some of the selloffs we have seen in the last 24 hours.

lisa: how much does it matter that the expectation is for the treasury department to send less debt going forward? they have reduced their funding requirements at the same time that the fed has not yet announced tapering to their bond purchases. if they keep it the same, it is basically an acceleration of stimulus in an effective manner. subadra: it is come up with the treasury is clearly underfunded. there's a lot of uncertainty about the infrastructure plan, as well as the human capital plan and what size that is going to be. that can be easily added, and perhaps there's $1 trillion or so and spending. but broadly speaking, the treasury is definitely overfunded, so they are going to cut some bond issuance back at this meeting. but from a fiscal side, we have been very accommodative. on the monetary policy side, policy has been extorted nearly accommodative. now it is time to pull back fiscal and monetary stimulus. lisa: the fed balance sheet

right now is $8.2 trillion. in a year, how big will it be? subadra: it could be another $1 trillion higher. it really depends on what kind of programs they put in place. the expectation is that they will start to announce at the earliest in november. they could go a lot asked her after they announced -- a lot faster after they announced if the issue proved to be somewhat stronger-than-expected. tom: this is nuts. we have a bond pro here telling us we will go out to nine gazillion on the balance sheet. this jobs report and all around is completely outside anything we have done before. jonathan: this jobs report has got us thinking about the flow of bond buying. tom: i strongly agree. jonathan: and how powerful the stock will be. the portfolio effect, the balance effect over the fed for years to come. subadra: i think that is a very

important factor because the fed holdings are quite large. there's no indication that they are going to be pulling back or reducing their balance sheet anytime soon. the balance sheet is probably going to remain slightly above where we are now for the next couple of years. they are thinking of hiking rates in early 2023. beyond that, the balance sheet remains strong, which means the fed is going to continue to purchase assets on an ongoing basis as add-ons at the auction. so they are going to have their technicals in the bond markets for a very long time. i don't really see them paring back their balance sheet anytime soon. jonathan: good to catch up. thank you. subadra rajappa, socgen head of u.s. rates strategy. tom: it is like a bathtub. explain the bathtub model. jonathan: this will be reinvested over time until they try to unwind it, and that will take a long time. what we saw last time around is when they tried to start and unwind it. that is when the old story of

tapering was not tightening. what if unwinding started to become tightening in a fashion? that was the problem for fed communication. lisa: that is the reason why steve ritchie to -- steve ri cchiuto said he does not think they will tighten. is this the main reaction function at a time when they will not get that far away from 0% interest rates? jonathan: you can book a seat on the lisa abramowicz tour at 4:30 eastern on thursday afternoon. i wasn't joking. that is what lisa does on a thursday afternoon at 4:30. lisa: everyone knows that. [laughter] jonathan: equities on the s&p advancing 0.07%. more insight from some wonderful guests, including bill dudley, the former new york fed president. he will be joining us shortly. the equity market near all-time highs. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word

news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. senate is set to approve that 550 million dollar infrastructure package. it would be the largest infusion of cash in decades for roads, bridges, and other domestic projects. the bill still faces challenges in the house. speaker pelosi said she will hold onto the bill until the senate also takes up the larger spending plan. according to economists surveyed by bloomberg, today's jobs report is likely to show the u.s. adding about 858,000 jobs last. the rollout of vaccines has encouraged businesses to reopen and consumers to return to shops, restaurants and bars. more than 30 u.s. trade groups have called on the biden administration to resume negotiations with china to remove tariffs. the trade groups include influential organizations such as the u.s. chamber of commerce. public universities in the u.s. faces student lawsuits over

coronavirus vaccine mandates, according to -- students claim they have a constitutional right to go to college and vaccinated -- college unvaccinated. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are going to see a lot of price increases in the short run. the key question is are those

transitory or are those sustained. i think we are going to see them transitory for a while. i don't necessarily they are going to be sustained over the year to two year horizon. jonathan: great to catch up with randall kroszner there, former federal reserve board number. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. friday morning, it is payrolls friday. 850 8000 is the estimate in our survey. futures going into that plus three, we advanced 0.7% -- 0.0 point -- 0.07% on the s&p 500. wti reclaiming a $70 handle at $70.11. we are back up by about 1.5% this morning. it tom: was a good signal tom: -- tom: it was a good signal of this global slowdown fear. i would mention swiss franc has recovered a little. to me, it is all noise, don't

you agree? jonathan: total noise until get to the payrolls report. even i told you right now, would you be able to dell me how the market responds? tom: i would fake it like i do every day. let's go to someone with absolute certainty on what is going on in washington. emily wilkins joins us. almost heaven, west virginia. mr. manchin set off a comment on chairman powell, but more importantly is what the senator from west virginia is facing at home, which is constituents and inflation. explain that tone in washington of all of these different fancy people in suits and ties and their constituents saying here's the non-transitory here and now. emily: there are two narratives right now in d.c. one of them is that inflation is a huge problem, that the biden administration needs to get in gear addressing it. the other narrative is yes,

inflation isn't looking good right now, but it is just the economy coming back online after covid. give it a few months. everything is going to shake out and be fine. obviously the white house is in favor of the letter narrative and hoping that moves democrats with them, but we are beginning to see faultlines with senator joe manchin writing that letter to the fed, saying you guys really need to start addressing inflation going forward. this could play into that upcoming debate. we have been focused on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, but remember, this is a dual track process. we have that three $.5 trillion reconciliation to consider, and that could be stymied if there are inflation concerns. tom: ok, you drink the kool-aid. i get the inside the beltway thing. how many other joe manchins are out there that are saying almost heaven, missouri or idaho inflation? emily: right now it is mostly hearing from republicans who have concerns about inflation,

and those republicans are not going to be voting for the $3.5 trillion reconciliation. we knew that from the start. the question is how money democrats agree with joe manchin, and there is definitely the potential that there could be more, particularly if we continue to see inflation rise in the way that it has and maintain this very high level. there are a number of moderate senators, kyrsten sinema, jon tester, who could join manchin and saying we are not sure about passing this $3.5 trillion spending. lisa: first we have to get past the bipartisan infrastructure bill. my favorite quote in the story on the bloomberg is from diane feinstein, california democratic senator, as she left the floor thursday night. "everybody is in a bad mood in there." how tense is this? what is the main point that people will be arguing about this weekend? emily: no one likes having to stay at work late, especially if you are a u.s. senator.

the bargains they have at this point are about a couple of them and. last night they were hoping to -- a couple of amendments. last night they were hoping to pass a package of amendments and head home, but that got stopped by a freshman senator from tennessee. a couple of things left ealing with cryptocurrency, how wide or how narrow regulations should be, and whether states can use funds allocated towards covid-19 for infrastructure. lisa: cryptocurrency? how does that fit into infrastructure, having to do with rebuilding america? connect the two. emily: it is a great point, and the idea is that they are trying to still at this 11th hour find ways to pay for this infrastructure bill. you heard them go through numerous ideas. you've heard them looking at selling off petroleum and oil reserves, delaying trump a rat

legislation that never went into effect in the first place. you heard bloomberg reporters say it quite well in one of their stories that this was the federal government equivalent of seeing -- in a solution. tom: is there any difference between legislative policymaking , sausage making, budget expansion, in a biden government versus a trump government? emily: it absolutely has. when you talk to democrats about the amount of spending, they are very quick to point to you that 2017 tax bill passed by the republican house, republican senate, and republican white house that democrats say, and it has been shown, has added to the federal debt and the federal deficit. so there's been spending in d.c. on both sides of the aisle here, but when you are the party who is not in power, you do tend to oppose things that the majority

is doing, and one of the arguments right there is that spending argument. jonathan: good to help from you -- good to hear from you, emily wilkins. tom, loving the john denver drop there. just dropping some lyrics. you could describe the white house, couldn't you? life is old there, older than the trees, something like that. you're not going to go there? i will get to the price action. [laughter] equities up three on the s&p, up 0.07%. what has stopped you before? tom: [singing] lisa: i love that that is your market check. that is like being foot in a corner. jonathan: on this show, that is timeout. lisa: literally. tom: would you translate this tweet for me? i have no clue. on radio, this is this iconic tweet where the guy is looking at the other girl while he's walking with his girl.

michael has gone out here and on a tottenham thing for jon and i. jonathan: the attention is all on messi, and away from here again. tom: is that what that means? jonathan: that's what's happening. tom: it is greek to me. jonathan: i wonder if manchester city are looking at their plans and whether they want to get in here and get messi to manchester city. tom: are there other manchester cities out there to support their tv revenue? jonathan: there's only two clubs that can support the wages. they are the only two that can get it done. the other outside of maybe chelsea, apart from that, that is about it. tom: in the tots aren't part of that? jonathan: no, not part of that conversation. tom: how about preston north end? jonathan: you've got to hang out to -- hang onto harry kane. jon, stop nonfarm payrolls.

harry kane is not gone? jonathan: not yet, no. do you want to continue this in the commercial break? lisa: probably not. [laughter] jonathan: the s&p up three. we advanced 0.1%. from new york city, on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, good morning to you. here's your price action this friday morning. equity features positive 0.06% on the s&p. record highs coming into friday on the s&p on the nasdaq. the nasdaq lower by 18, down by about 0.012%. is the fear of a may repeat, the april jobs report. we look for 858,000 today, and wonder what a big downside surprise would mean for this market. tom, you brought this up. i think the price of the story matters because your 10 year was 1.58%. it is now 1.25%. tom: we've got to get away from

the minutia the media is focused on. i think everybody at bloomberg is doing a good job of trying to look at the larva picture and link to get the -- the larger picture and linked together what is on the terminal. i would suggest that equities speak volumes. jonathan: i believe, like so many people believe, there's a ton of demand in this economy right now. we struggle to find the supply. this is the question for august, september, going into that september 22 meeting. will we have some evidence that supply is starting to meet that rocksolid robust demand? tom: ferro channeling michael mckee here with a jolt of the jolts. the number of jobs out here is stunning. it is basically unmeasurable. jonathan: it speaks to that fantastic demand we have in america right now. the big unknown is how they supply will heal for the u.s. still to come. will prices get it done? we can talk about that with

ellen's and their of morgan stanley just a moment. -- with ellen's and her of morgan stanley -- ellen zentner of morgan stanley in just a moment. let's head over to remain. romaine: united airlines will require all workers to vaccinate . that is in november. remember, the vaccine approvals are for emergency use which raises a lot of questions about people who have medical conditions. it is expected that the fda will move to make that approval, which basically means it is safe for everyone, and united says that's all of its workers need to have that vaccinations. about 90% of its pilots are already backs and -- already vaccinated and about 85% of flight attendants. there will be some exceptions if documented for medical or religious regions. but this is the first major airline to do this, and it is expected that the other airlines

will follow. we did get earnings out of expedia yesterday. they were good overall. the only problem is if there's a bit of a slowdown, analysts seem to want more aggressiveness when it comes to guidance. this is a broader story going on . things are great right now, but the sustainability of this is in question, as well as all of the concerns about the delta variant and how workers, as well as customers, are going to be protected. novavax down 10%. they had a very good trial with regards to their covid vaccine. the problem is they still haven't submitted it for approval here in the u.s. the problem is they manufacturing guidelines quite meet fda standards. they are pushing back. there is submission for authorization till the fourth quarter. that is at least the second delay we have seen out of nowhere. a few other names to keep an eye on this morning, didi shares getting a bit of a bid.

they may find a way to comply with the latest regulatory issues over there in china. fireeye stocks down as well, as is mobile gaming company zynga. tom: ellen zentner joins us now, of morgan stanley. how has your x axis changed? our great debate at "surveillance" is the idea of a boom economy back somewhere to normal. tell us your 2021, 2022, 2023 in the labor market. ellen: it will be a slow way back for support. we saw a drop that we have never seen in history. i think 1% was the historical biggest number, and then it can take years to climb back to pre-downturn levels. so it is just going to be a slow

slog. we are going to get some bumps here and there. one of the upside bumps we are expecting is around september, august-september as schools are reopening and people can go back to work. so you will get some positive bumps there. i think it is going to take quite some time for normalization and labor force participation rates. that of course is going to dampen how much economic growth you are going to get. we do have a lot of stimulus in the system and we still got more legislation to go. so the economy is slowing sharply next year, but still growing above its potential. as you said, look out to 2023 and beyond. it won't be difficult for the economy to fall back to a one handle if you don't get more precipitation. tom: the 1% handle is almost on think of a. this is a central-bank question. the idea that we can stay

accommodative longer runs up against massive pressure to write the ship sooner rather than later. how do you judge that right now with a powell federal reserve? will they be sooner or later? ellen: the first step is to bring their asset purchase program, and they are moving toward that. that has a lower bar for starting that program that actually raising rates. they have seen substantial progress. they have to have arrived at their goals in order to raise rates. they are moving towards tapering . jon mentioned what would be a payroll number that would really shock the market, i think it would have to be below 500,000, possibly as much as below 300,000. for the fed to believe we are not making the kind of progress we would like to see. but we are getting there. when you finish tapering the balance sheet, only then will they start discussing when they

hike rates. thinh -- the thing about new framework is implicit that you delay rate hikes, and when you do you only do so gradually. the real neutral rate of the economy will be rising by the time you get out to 2023, even if you are moving to a 1% handle on gdp. potential gdp is somewhere around 1.5%, 1.7%. so you can still have a tighter economy enough that you start to raise rates. it is just a sensitive economy that you're not going to be able to raise rates quickly. i don't believe in that narrative. tom: can you explain a political system can accept a 1% growth rate? jonathan: a president and administration that wants to do something about a labor market, and you have disposed a really tremendously difficult and under for this federal reserve. if these supply constraints

persist, how thank you, no thank you fed can respond to that? what does this federal reserve do? ellen: it depends on how much participation has changed. has it changed structurally? did they make one thing that the fed has been following? it is very easy to point to that cohort and say most of them are not coming back, even if you have a strong economic growth backdrop. but others that make up probably 2/3 of the drop in labor force participation are for other reasons, and if you have economy you can bring this back. it is when we get out into 2023, if you are still not seeing the

pickup in labor force participation, if it looks much more structural than anyone had imagined, then it can bring the fed to redefine what does maximum employment mean to them. it could signal much more inflationary pressures than the fed would have thought at that point. lisa: we just have about a minute left. you have been one of the most accurate jobs market forecasters going forward. one reason is because you look at high-frequency data. right now, what is the high-frequency data telling you about how fear of the spread has put a crimp in the labor market progress there? ellen: it is critical to bring those into our forecasts, even if we are judging it from a qualitative perspective get it i am concerned about today's payroll report, there have been signs, more of late, that you've got to slow down some of that agile data we get. we have a team that produces large surveys for us, so a

skills survey that shows the come up with the rate at which the delta variance urged just within the last two weeks. so self policing will come back as jargon again, which leads to more cautious behavior. it can dampen some of this business activity and further reopening. jonathan: just quickly before you run, what is the number that you and the team are looking for? tom: we are looking for 1.02 5 million, near the top. jonathan: do you go. ellen, thank you. -- thank you. ellen, good to catch up with you. the estimate today, zero dollars -- today, $0.08. tom: i'm completely humbled by this natural disaster we are in.

you and i and lisa see it anecdotally in the three zip codes we are in across the nation. it is not normal economics. jonathan: for those of you tuning in, april 7 was the jobs report where we got 250,000. this one is confusing. the idp data -- the adp data was soft, and less time the ism was really not. lisa: it does seem like people are coming back to some sense of normalcy. jonathan: the price of this market is different. features positive three, advancing 0.07. alongside tom keene and jonathan barrett's, on radio, on bloomberg -- alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm

jonathan ferro. on radio come on tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: united airlines says workers must get vaccinated against coronavirus, the first major u.s. carrier to impose the mandate. united says employees must upload their injection record through a company database no more than -- to discuss final changes to the bill, which is 2700 pages long. it faces an uncertain future in the house. there are growing signs that the coronavirus delta variant risks slowing the pace of the u.s. economic recovery. even slick new york auto show were being -- events like the new york auto show are being canceled due to the delta variant. bloomberg has learned china's didi global may give up control of its most valuable data, part of an asset to resolve a chinese

regulatory throw into the aftermaths of its proposal in the u.s.. byron truck is a billionaire banker, according to the bloomberg billionaires index. founder of capital partners is worth about $3 billion. the fund manages about $26 billion and it has taken to -- and has taken --global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it has never been this unrewarding. two, three, four years ago

people were asking me, are we in a high-yield bond bubble? no, we were in a bond bubble. today we are in and everything bubble. jonathan: we are in an everything bubble. the words of legendary investor howard marks of oaktree capital, the cofounder and cochairman. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures plus two on the s&p. we advance 0.06%. we are 42 minutes away from the payrolls report in america, and yields are higher by three basis points to 1.2550%. the estimates are between -- the median estimates are between 850,000 and 875,000. tom: part of our agreement is we have to do a real yield brief every friday to get ferro ready for his afternoon soiree. we do that now with the former president of the federal reserve system, with goldman sachs for

years, bill dudley. you are focused entirely on the land of jon ferro, which is "the real yield. how do we get out of the conundrum that mr. marks just described? william: the conundrum is by intent. the fed is buying assets and forcing people to hold more deposits than they want, so the response is then to buy bonds. negative real yields now are -1.2% in the last week, the lowest on record going back to the 1990's when tips were introduced. so it is a pretty interesting environment where yields are heading could lows at the time that the economy is in recovery. inflation on a year-over-year basis is at 5%. it doesn't fit together very well. tom: you mentioned the word intent. the key thing here is the mystery over the will and intent of the good people of the fomc

and this original moment. what would you suggest is there will and intent into the end of the year? william: i think their will and intent is to make things very accommodative, get people employed and back to work, and talk about substantial progress towards their goals. they basically told us they had made some progress, but they haven't quite satisfied that substantial further progress yet , and depending on what the employment report is today and in the coming months, maybe they will have satisfied that requirement will start to begin the taper process. jonathan: demand is robust. do you share the hope, that supply arrives in the participation of this workforce -- and the participation of this workforce will recover to where it was? william: we will find out as

school goes back into session. right now we have tension between what we are seeing between record job openings and what we are seeing with labor markets. lisa: we have been talking all week about the fact that the fed probably is not going to shrink its balance sheet. this is one of the reasons why you attribute it yields to being as low as they are. you said they should be higher, and that they are as low -- it is the fed's part the market that they are as low as they are. do you think they will keep at this pace or higher for the foreseeable future, based on where we are economically and where we are with respect the low interest rate regime? william: they are hoping they are going to be able to gradually shrink their balance sheet. only then do you actually start to run the balance sheet off. the balance sheet is huge right now, so one is going to take a

number of years, and we do, it is going to a long time to get back to a normal level. lisa: what is the consequence of having a trillion dollars balance sheet or higher? william: it basically means there will be downward pressure on yields until the fed ends the asset purchases and the run- up on the balance sheet. jonathan: if you were still out the fed, what would you say to governor waller after his speech? would you privately get on the phone, send an email? william: i think it is a tricky situation for the fed in terms of getting the timing exactly right. people differ about when it is time to pare back the rate of asset purchases. i think the big wild card is the delta variant and how that is leading to a rise in coronavirus cases. the payrolls report is really looking in the rearview mirror. the real question is where we

will be two or three weeks from now. tom: mr. ferro has been impolite, so i will be even worse. [laughter] let's go to a short little book on alan greenspan. i do think seriously that many of our listeners and viewers really don't understand the process that this chairman goes through with the good people around him, including the vice chair from columbia university. how is the powell decision-making tree from what was -- how is the powell decision-making tree different from what was described as the greenspan process? william: people talk about the three, the chair of the fed, the vice chair, and the president of the new york fed, john williams. so the three get together frequently and discuss what is

the appropriate course of policy , what should the statement look like. so it is not just one person. it is the three people sort of driving things forward, and you have to bring other members along of the fomc with you. jonathan: that was bill dudley, the former new york fed president and bloomberg opinion columnist. as we wait for payrolls 36 minutes away. tom: and again, i'm going to go back to equity dominance. all in all, the tape modestly improves. ellen zentner said you need 500,000 nonfarm payrolls to really shake up the system. that is a little bit low some of the others. jonathan: i am going to go to the get back to work effort, united airlines taking it a step further. they were asking new hires to provide proof for vaccination, and now they want the full workforce to do the same by

october 25. get it done. lisa: it is fascinating to see how different the approaches rf different corporations with respect to either mandating it or trying to encourage with $100. at the meantime, do you think that rich, john and jay have their own table at the fed that they said at? jonathan: very informally casual. do they said away from people? lisa: they sort of get together on their own. jonathan: like the back of the school bus? lisa: kind of the cool kids. jonathan: that don't go down there and talk. lisa: exactly. jonathan: this is real value add stuff. [laughter] coming up in the next hour, jill kerry how -- jill carey hall of bank of america securities. looking forward to full coverage right here on bloomberg tv and

radio, with equity futures up two. we advanced by 0.05%, and your 10 year yield in and around one 2526% -- around 1.2526%. on radio, on tv, for our worldwide -- our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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>> the economy, the empty cubicles you are seeing across the country, it has not stopped. >> we have been waiting for supply to pick up, and supply is exploding. >> we have taken wealth from the public sector and given it to the private sector. >> we are going to see a lot of price increases in the short run. the key question is are those transitory or are those sustained. > now it is time to pull back the fiscal and monetary stimulus. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyon