maus: a very good morning from dubai. dani burger alongside me in the london. at these are the stories that set your agenda. a jobs report raises bets the fed is closer to pulling back on stimulus. guidance $550 billion infrastructure bill clears the last hurdle before a senate vote. china surges, bonds and commodities sell off.

the nation's growth forecast is slashed. it is time for a booster. anthony fauci says the vulnerable should get a follow-up jab soon as the cases hit a six-month high. france begins a health pass today. good morning. the jobs market -- the jobs report, i should say, has a lot to answer for. i take you to the repricing. it is in the real yield. a spike in real yield. quite literally, the fx, the commodity, and the equity are the most components of the world. good morning. dani: commodities absolutely falling out of bed. if you're going to listen to jay berry at j.p. morgan, he says this is investors becoming more comfortable. the growth is happening in the u.s. and it is here to stay.

that is the message from the jobs report. it is stagflation, the fears taken out of the picture of the real yield. manus: two comments. leon cooperman says the fed has overstayed its welcome in the bond market. also, we are in a everything bubble. i like it so much i listened to it again. dani: is the fed going to tighten and take away that everything bubble? that will be one of the questions not only for jackson hole but the next jobs report as well. manus: indeed. the dollar has repriced, dani. dani: it is at its highest in two weeks. let me show you where it stands this morning. not much movement, but we are seeing movement in response to the dollar, in response to a stronger jobs data in response to, commodities, gold, oil, all moving lower. there is some fears of the delta variant. all of these commodities down as

much as 1.9% this morning. let's stick with the jobs picture because the u.s. labor market charged a head in july with the biggest increase in unemployment in a year. that highlights prospects. the latest employment numbers and its implication for fed policy. >> another incredibly strong jobs market report. >> very strong report across all metrics. >> across-the-board, the february report for the economy. >> leisure and hospitality jobs, those were among the top gainers. >> it shows the recovery is coming in for force. >> this is critical for the fed. it is not just come look, we got one big report, it is month after month. >> maybe it will be with us longer. >> the costs are mounting. >> this will not be an earlier tightening, but it could be an

earlier tapering. >> the fed risks falling behind the curve. >> very encouraging, very consequential report. i think the next payrolls report will be the decision-making report for the fed. dani: let's get more on the jobs picture in market reaction. joining us is our guest. thank you for joining us this morning. this very strong jobs number coming up very high above expectations. is this a regime shift? has this altered in any way your view on the markets right now? guest: it has concerns my views. with the job report, we only have one. this will be a crucial week especially for the dollar because we focused on employment to the inflation seeker, and that inflation number would have a bigger impact if it is

surprising on the upside. right now, the consensus is only looking for slowing because, yes, we would see very strong performance throughout the whole summer. if we get a surprise on the upside, we have this whole debate back as to jackson hole. not only the next fed meeting in september being the time to talk about tapering. manus: jackson hole. it is setting the agenda. the rates market specific to your world and the fx world has begun to step gears up. 25 basis points in march. the short end is beginning a new

regime of pricing. do you think that is reflected in the dollar thus far? >> right now, the dollar is still holding on. for one and a half months we are sitting at a tight range, somewhere between 117.5 and 119. we have been moving to the lower end of the range with a solid jobs report on friday, but we need one more sector to really drive it out. this probably will be the inflation story on wednesday. dani: i wonder where you are priced around different risk events? i am drawn to one chart we have that looks at the dollar-yen and volatility. you mentioned jackson hole. manus gave us the history behind jackson hole as a risk event. if you look at with the currency

volatility is doing, it is the one-month tenor showing more volatility and that captures the next payroll data. i wonder if to you, also given what waller has said about the importance of the job numbers, about which event you think it makes more sense to price this risk around? guest: volatility is stubbornly low. we have seen a lot of volatility around data events. we need to see how this data pans out with the volatility spike. i think we need to see reality to kick in as to when we can move out to the lower volatility regime. right now looking at history it is fairly low. we need the next fed meeting to see a shift. manus:, i am just wondering

slightly left field, but i was outside the ecb a few weeks ago and a lot of people were saying it is the same old wine served in different bottles, which i think was a bit disingenuous in terms of the guidance. he has clarified what he means over the weekend. the p, in the ppp, the p stands for pandemic, not permanent. how hawkish is this? guest: not as hawkish and not as game changing, i feel. we have in all the different speeches, we have a lot of information already that it is not permanent, but it is also not in emergency situation anymore. i think we already and the ecb has taken a stand and will not take back the

accommodative policy. this comment has not really changed, i have to admit. manus: they are liking to reset the agenda. stefanie holtze-jen that dws. let's get the first word news. reporter: the top infectious disease doctor in the u.s. says he is in favor of speeding up booster shots for people with weakened immune systems. anthony fauci told cnn it should be implemented soon. his comments added that the delta variant is driving new infections, levels not seen

since the winter surge six months ago. philip morris is heating up the race for the terra group. the cigarette group has offered customer share for the british manufacturer of inhalers and nebulizers, trumping an offer from carlyle group's. the share is just over one billion pounds. a football superstar says there is a chance he will play for paris next season. barcelona confirmed last week that after 17 seasons messi's contract would not be renewed after the spanish league salary botched the deal. the 34-year-old was emotional at a news conference, saying he was expecting to remain at barcelona, the only professional club he has play for in his career. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: angel feliciano there.

always good to start our morning with you. we look at china and the economic risks building as the delta variant spreads and inflation pressures pickup. we take a look at the growth outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. i am dani burger in london, alongside day -- alongside manus cranny in dubai. inflation pressures pickup. that is clouding the outlook for central bank support. at the same time, the spread of the delta variant is threatening china's growth outlook with goldman sachs downgrading this morning its gdp forecast. bloomberg's chief asia economics reporter joins us from hong kong. what is driving those shift in the outlook for china's economy? reporter: like you say, it

is changing now. exports are slowing, inflation is quickening and the delta variant is spreading. these are putting question marks over the v-shaped rebound since midway through last year. we had numbers today showing that prices have rebounded back to 9%. the expectation had been that prices might have cooled off by now and taking pressures off the factories dealing with high costs. on the others of things, there are strict restrictions in place, trying to control the spread of the delta variant. that will have an impact. on the broader growth story there -- as we head deeper on the story. manus: you begin to see these notes come out from people like goldman-s who slashed q3.

that is aggressive. then they go on to presume you get this double v. a bounceback. but it is based on containment. were you surprised by the scale? is it a growth problem, not an inflation problem? where do you lean? reporter: it is definitely a focus on growth at the moment for the reasons you mentioned. take for example the consumer. the consumer had never fully rebounded in terms of spending on services since the pandemic, even though the virus is under control. now we have had this flareup of delta and with the restrictions going on, that is obviously not going to help the consumption story. on the trade story, there are signs that global demand is slowing down for china made goods. there is no doubt that will be the question for policymakers. when you mentioned the deep

downgrades from goldman and others, economies are looking for growth around 8% or more in the year ahead. if the virus is under control for the next month or so, the forecast will remain intact. if they do not manage or contain the virus, you will see materials forecast coming down markedly lower. dani: i was going to say that growth and inflation picture that end is explaininga, it brings in the volta more of the markets. that is stagflation. that is a -- that is difficult for policymakers to deal with. what does it mean for policy? reporter: you are quite right. remember a few weeks ago, they encouraged banks to lend more

money to those companies that need it. more support might be needed for the economy in the months ahead. if you have consumer prices heading higher and producer prices, that is not an environment where you want to be raising interest rates and putting pressure on those parts of the economy that are exposed. it will be something of a balancing act. i think the take away will be how quickly is the variant controlled in china, if it can be controlled. that will determine how much official support will be needed. we know the story has been one of tapering through this year, but there is a feeling the government might need to come back in and start tipping more money into the economy over the months ahead. all of that will be determined by the virus and it spread. manus: it is the mlf we are going to get in the near term. you look for incremental liquidity. that is rather than rate

cuts. reporter: exactly. that is the story people are looking at. there is not much room for auto interest rate cuts by the central bank. there will be targeted measures either through the money markets, getting money in that way, or getting the banks and companies, medium sized inner prizes that need it most. this has been a focus of businesses that are struggling with high prices and are getting hit or are vulnerable to a slowdown in the trade story. you will hear more chatter for those sectors over the month ahead. interest rate cuts may not be the answer for now. it will likely be more support through the banking sector or liquidity in the financial markets. manus: we will see what we get. our chief asia economics correspondent with the latest advice for the tonic in china.

what is the yuan reflecting? is it reflecting a soft slowdown, a soft landing as it were, in the yuan pricing at the moment? guest: right now, the yuan pricing is determined from what we saw on friday. i feel that the yuan has not started to reflect the concern around growth that were mentioned by enda, and also not the investor confidence with what happens by cracking down on tech and although social welfare industries as well. -- and all the social welfare industries as well. you cannot expect any aggressive moves, but a downwards

trajectory for the forecast. dani: if i could zero in on this idea of foreign investor aversion, where does that stand at the moment? not only are you coupling regulatory concerns, but a stronger dollar on the assets. have negative and how permanent or temporary is that attitude towards china and financial markets? guest: it is something that is building. we have been talking about one side of the equation, which is china. beforehand, we mentioned how the picture potentially shifts with surprising inflation numbers and a change in tact from the meeting. this is only building up and it can amplify over time. it is already something that should remain on the

renminbi. manus: you have used the world building twice now, building of dollar strength. if you have capital outflow, less momentum in terms of exposure to china, where could yuan weaken to? what move are you looking at? a five percent, 10% appreciation? or is that me getting too excited? guest: you are not getting too excited. but they will not have an interest in reflecting the anxiety created in the stock markets. i don't think they will be aiming for 10% in the currency. we will see something much more measured towards the 2%, 3%, potentially longer-term 5%. maybe that is an angle to look at. dani: now you are giving manus

the runway to get more excited, so thank you for that. [laughter] thanks for joining us. that is stefanie holtze-jen. we will turn to the u.s. with the $550 billion infrastructure bill, a cornerstone of president biden's agenda. we will get to the latest on a potential vote that will happen today. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is daybreak europe, your monday edition with dani burger and me, manus cranny. it is $550 billion worth of infrastructure, and it is set to clear the last procedural hurdle in the senate. we are setting up for a vote, final passage later today.

let's get to bruce einhorn in hong kong. remind us, what is in the bill? reporter: it is reasonable that we may have lost track of it because it has been going on for a long time. we are looking at over 100 billion dollars going to roads and bridges, over $70 billion going to electricity grid up upgrades. $66 billion for water projects. and we also have train projects. and there would be money for mass transit. all of those things, so called hard infrastructure, all part of this bill. dani: this bipartisanship pretty rare in washington these days. what still needs to happen? what do they need to resolve before they can have this final vote? reporter: there still are more hurdles to overcome so it is unclear whether the vote will take place on monday. it might slide to tuesday.

there are still disagreements about how -- there are rules about cryptocurrency transactions, and that is important because they are counting on some revenue from tax from cryptocurrency transactions to pay for this. there is also still a disagreement about whether states and localities can use some unspent money from covid relief proposals -- bill, i'm sorry, that was passed earlier this year. that is also something that would help to pay for all of this. those still have to be dealt with. but it seems likely that given that we have both republicans and democrats having voted for this that it is going to happen, the senate is going to approve this. whether it is monday or tuesday, we still have to see. manus: we talked about what will

happen once this passes. we will talk about the other $3 trillion. there is another $3 trillion in stimulus. when does that agenda begin and how will that be? reporter: it is possible that the senate would take that up as soon as they pass this. it is a $3.5 trillion package that would cover pretty much the rest of biden's domestic agenda, and that is something democrats would be pushing through on a party line only vote, and it is extremely important because nancy pelosi and the house has a very thin majority and it is not going to be possible for her to get the infrastructure bill passed unless her caucus sees there is progress on the bigger $3.5 trillion deal as well. manus: bruce, thank you. bruce einhorn on the big spend in big america.

from as big spend to big oil. saudi aramco bumping up. what does that mean for the dividend? this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com.

♪ manus: -- >> good morning. i'm dani burger alongside manus cranny. this is bloomberg. "bloomberg daybreak: europe." here's what you need to know. the fed is closer to pulling back stimulus on an infrastructure bill clearing it's hurdle before a senate vote.

goldman/is the nation's growth forecast as the delta variant spreads. and time for a booster. anthony fauci says the vulnerable should get a follow-up jab soon as u.s. cases hit a six-month high. happy monday to you, manus. i give you the six-day chart of the dollar. a repricing in the greenback after a job number that topped expectations. is this a regime shift? are we getting a real euro-dollar from here on out? manus: maybe we are running before we could walk. i would say i would be with you. i think the march and june pricing on the futures for 2023 say you were going to get a faster, more aggressive fed then you perhaps presume. but you look at the volatility. if you look at the vol traders,

they bet it's going to be more volatile in the jobs number. maybe that's mispriced. but that is what the vol traders set at the moment. the fed has overstayed his welcome in the rates market. howard marks let rates drift higher. don't be frightened, don't capitulate like an 2019. -- in 2019. dani: maybe that has to do with how important the jobs figure is, putting the focus on the jobs market means we are going to press more volatility. i can't get away from the volatility markets. around the jobs numbers. manus: let's talk about saudi aramco. there's two bonuses to be had there. big oil, delivering big earnings across a range. aramco, boosted by a recovery in oil. $25.5 billion in net income for

the second quarter. the highest level since 2018. why does it not raise the dividend? let's ask the head emerging markets research for emia. big oil, big numbers, but no big boost. to the dividend. why? >> look, after all, aramco has $25.5 billion in an annual basis. the issue is to future dividends. the next two quarters. because we are forecasting aramco could be generating close to $94 billion in cash this year. the management of aramco talks about progressive dividends.

they do have the firepower this year to do that. now they will be deciding what to do with the dividends the second half of the year. we do think they should race the dividend [indiscernible] in 2020. dani: you have dividend yields of her uncle of about 4%, the other oil majors are about 5%. what does that mean for the attractiveness of aramco versus some of its competitors? >> look, previously, right, aramco had the argument of the biggest resource base. i think investors are putting less and less value on being a future resource base and putting more value on the immediate cash distributions.

the european majors are 6%. the majors are paying near 9%. given again the lesser importance of the future resource, it is very important the cash distributions much of the global majors for aramco to be considered -- to be competitive as everybody else. there's a big emphasis on potential boost of dividends in the second half of the year to consider. manus: to be fair, they are equipped bullish going into the second half. oil has been quite literally bruised, i would say, last week. a percent lower. -- 8% lower. 11 million people were tested in the space of 48 hours. is the 8% repricing concurrent

with where you see oil prices, going into the back half of the year? >> we did expect a little bit of the weakening, but remember, opec-plus is still participating in this market. deman is still recoveringd. -- demands are still recovering. companies like aramco are unique in the market. they are the only ones that actually cannot only benefit from the surging oil prices, but also surge production. aramco didn't really increase production -- no one else in the

world can do it that fast. demand is weakening because of the new variants of the virus. we are concerned that the supply is not going to be there. we have an average of $75 a barrel. dani: if you have aramco, one of the few oil companies being able to put into investment, we seeing the oil majors using their cash to pay off some of the debt. these huge debt piles that happened over the pandemic. how much longer is this debt going to weigh over the majors? >> the oil companies are depleting their resource base. to pay down debt. this is not happening to aramco.

it is an issue globally. the companies have to pay down debts or shareholders. despite the big surge, it is still manageable for aramco. they can pay out the dividend to minority shareholders. 8% of their shareholder base. [indiscernible] and the global equity markets. manus: one thing that came to mind over the weekend, i was thinking about, you've got debt, you've got to gearing aspect, you've got the dividend aspect, the transformation of bp -- in a whole variety of ways, they've made it clear, we are going to get the very last drop of oil out of the ground at the lowest cost.

how far ahead is bp and transformation, or how far behind is aramco? that is something that will come to bite aramco eventually with the global investor mind. >> i think the provider of the cheapest and perhaps [indiscernible] globally, i don't think aramco is behind it all -- at all. aramco is going to be supplying 10-11 million barrels a day. they are one of the highest global corporate users. they need to diversify. this is not the case for aramco. i think personally, aramco 10-20

years from now is going to be producing the same amount of oil while everyone else drops off. dani: thanks so much for joining us this morning, karen. bank of america head of emerging emea energy research. angel: wildfires have threatened villages, forcing further evacuations. the blazes began almost a week ago due to a heat wave, cutting across a popular summer destination. destroying homes and businesses. thousands of residents and tourists have been forced to flee. a top to new york governor andrew cuomo resigned, as her boss contends possible criminal charges over alleged sexual harassment. one of his accusers earlier spoke out publicly for the first time. she said what cuomo did to her was a crime and he should

be held a cannibal. there are multiple claims of sexual misconduct. virgin atlantic is reportedly considering a public offering in london. executives have been holding discussions with bankers and potential investors and could announce the ipo plans within the coming month. that decision would mark the first public opportunity to buy shares in richard branson's flagship carrier. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus. manus: thank you very much, angel. let's talk about alibaba. the e-commerce giant fired the manager accused of rape. after the ordeal goes viral. we will bring you the full story, on bloomberg.

♪

♪ manus: i'm manus cranny. dani burger alongside. the alibaba manager accused of rape, after the employee ordeal went viral on social media. it exposes problems in the culture of the e-commerce giant. our reporter is in beijing tracking this story. lucille, first of all, the timeline, walk us through it. reporter: that's right. the public basically came to learn about this incident over the weekend. the female employee involved alleges this is something that happened almost two. weeks ago she was unsatisfied with how executives handled the situation and took to the company internet to

publish an 8000 page long account of everything that happened to her including allegations of going on this work tricked then being pressured to drink than being sexually assaulted by a client as well as her boss. -- then being sexually assaulted by a client as well as her boss. dani: what happens next? reporter: we are watching to see what -- if there will be a criminal conviction in this case. we have a lot of awareness raising. for example, lawyers going on the internet saying, what are you culpable for if you witnessed something like this happening? manus: what does it mean for the broader #metoo movement in china? reporter: the #metoo movement here has not exactly taken off the same way it has another countries. there have been cases throughout

the years, many very high-profile ones. we had one extreme we high-profile one recently with a mega-celebrity, chris wu, being detained by police on allegations of rape. now we have this case pay would these cases are often taken individually rather than part of a bigger movement. however they have spurred much conversation about sexual harassment and workplace culture. dani: thanks for staying on top of this for us, lucille liu. coming up, time for a booster. the american top infectious disease expert says the vulnerable should get a follow-up covid jab soon, as u.s. cases hit a six-month high. we have that story for you next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ dani: welcome back paradigm dani

burger alongside manus cranny. controversy surrounding the tokyo summer olympics be eclipsed by next year's beijing winter games. here's a look for you at the obstacles facing china in the coming months. reporter: beijing is promising a successful winter olympics in february. still, a number of hurdles stand in the way. starting with transporting athletes and delegations. officials are yet to share that have yet to share quarantine plans with borders no marginally sealed off. even full vaccination may not guarantee easier access. there's evidence there's less protection against the delta variant. international fans could be limited. but beijing may allow home crowds capped at two thirds of venue capacity. for other social distancing rules, organizers will pay close attention to the tokyo playbook. we could again for instance see

winners putting metals around their own necks. state media says all construction work is on track. but what about the snow? skiing evans will be staged in a desert averaging eight inches of coverage per year. china will be relying entirely on artificial flakes, raising environmental concerns. than there are human rights issues. some are calling for a diplomatic boycott of the games. critics including u.s. lawmakers want to change beijing's stances on hong kong and uighur muslims. pressure is being applied to companies like coca-cola and visa. with these games, beijing has a chance to dazzle the world. officials are said to want at

least five gold medals, another challenge for eight country -- for a country historically week in winter sports. manus: people and friends will need to show a health pass to enjoy usually routine activities like going to a cafe, traveling on public transportation. in an effort to stomp the spread of covid-19 as infections rise and they encourage vaccination. dani: if we go to the u.s., anthony fauci, the top infectious disease doctor, says he is strongly in favor of booster shots to curb the pandemic. >> we need to look at them in a different light. we will almost certainly be boosting those people before we booster general population.

we should be doing that reasonably soon. manus: the cofounder of the vaccine maker, moderna, has also weighed in on the need for booster shots. >> we do think the rate at which this variant is spreading should require will noble people or the population, certain health affected individuals, they should get ready to offer a third booster shot to those, and perhaps a larger number, and that is what we are waiting for the cdc and other organizations to consider. dani: let's get more into the details. joining us is our asia health care team leader, rachel chang. we have some of those advocating booster shots. what's the current thinking on booster shots at the moment? >> i think the fear around what's going on with the delta variant and how contagious it is proving and how quickly it's

ricocheted through the u.s. and other vaccinated economies has reinvigorated the discussion of the booster shots, the idea that there must be some sort of way to get the sense of vaccination even higher up for the u.s. the thing the u.s. doesn't want to do is to go back into lockdown again and to use non-vaccine ways to stop the spread of the delta variant. the research is still at an early stage on this. the truth is that the u.s. may be looking at factors such as that it gave out vaccines within a three week interval. which we know is less effective than spreading out that dose intervals. they have a couple of options to play with. not just using boosters. manus: what's the impact on the rest of the world? here we are in the developed world talking about booster shots, yet we have covax and emerging markets and many parts of the world quite literally

plundering, not really off the starting blocks. what is the impact for the rest of the world? reporter: exactly. you've nailed it, as to why the strategy is so concerning for the rest of the world. you have large part of the developing world who don't even have access to a single shot of vaccine, not to mention the third shot right now. what we do know is the companies that have been making the most effective mrna shots are going to supply the first world first because of the money they get paid for that. when places like the u.s. and europe want another round, millions of shots again for their populations, you're going to see the situation that's going to continue on for years and years. manus: a catastrophe. it has huge social and economic ramifications as well. thank you very much, rachel. our editor on all things covid.

rachel chang in hong kong. dani, we are seeing quite a repricing across assets that stumbled at the top of the show. i couldn't find the word assets. if you look across, take a look at iron and oil. it is suffering twofold. it's seeing a dollar repriced, a slashing of china growth from goldman sachs in this quarter, there's your iron ore futures, down for percent. oil lost 4% last week. this is delta dollar, and the dread of slow down. dani: you are so good at these alliteration's. i'm going to remember that now. if i can counter your commodity board with an fx board, the dollar definitely, we are seeing the commodity currency, you have a lot of thoughts around the aussie, but look at the yen. can this come back as a haven

when you have this divergent policy between the u.s. and japan? the dollar, at a two-week high, manus. manus: the dollar-yen story, there was this big momentum, thi s movement in the swiss and the yen, way too mathematical for my brain. but the volatility for the jobs report is actually higher in september than it is for jackson hall which is at the end of this month. if you look at robert kaplan's comments from last week, we could be in for a serious, serious jolt at the end of this month, which has yet to be priced. 1.6%, 1.7% on bond yields. dani: jackson hall has this reach history of being -- rich history of being a volatility event for these markets. we will stay on top of the vols.

don't you worry, i will cover how much they are pressing in with that is it for us on "bloomberg daybreak: europe." this is bloomberg. ♪ comcast nbcuniversal is investing

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♪ >> good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets. the cash trading, less than an hour away. here are your top deadlines. closer to pulling back stimulus. biden's infrastructure bill clears the last hurdle before a senate vote. bonds and commodities selloff. goldman-s lashes the nation's