>> the fed is being very clear, they want to avoid a taper tantrum. >> it will take a long time to get back to the normal level. >> we do expect the market will and lower rather than higher. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: let's get the trading week started. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. some real tension this morning. better news out of america, worse news out of china. tom: i think you nailed it. it is a trading week, and everyone has to reassess. i mean, i am gold with the volatility this morning, but it is really interesting how the recalibration of september is going to happen now. jonathan: really interesting for the debate around inflation as

well. the jobs report was assigned the supply side of the u.s. economy was healing. then you have what is happening with china. what is happening in china reintroduces upside risk of supply constraints. tom: there is noise. there is noise in the specific -- in the pacific rim. just, to me, that bang up jobs report with a bang up revision globally means everyone has to reassess, and that is what i saw in the research notes. jonathan: what i saw this morning was reassessing chinese growth. it was cut, cut, cut. lisa: downgrading third-quarter g-v -- ddp as well as -- downgrading third-quarter gdp. and producer prices as well as consumer prices rising at a faster clip, even as officials try to curb some of those price rises. how much does this lead to a

stagflation light environment? how much do higher prices crimp growth in the near future? jonathan: we are not even two minutes in. [laughter] lisa: that is what everybody was saying. jonathan: the number one question for the federal reserve -- how much progress did we make towards substantial progress? we are down 7 in the s&p. after putting together a tidy week of gains last week. yields were through 1.3 oh earlier in the session. lastly, the lows, 1.1 to 58 thursday. and euro-dollar -- don't think i have not mentioned this. it would be nice to start this program without the interruptions a couple minutes in. tom: we cannot do that. jonathan: crude was battered last week. 65.48.

lisa: and this comes over concern of the delta variant and what it could potentially mean for global growth. today, i expect of you to be sleepy, because we were not getting any massive economic data, but we are getting massive economic data, 10:00 a.m. i am fascinated to see whether we had a new record in terms of jobs openings. last month was a record. how much does this indicate that that supply friction of workers is not abating, if anything getting worse? and what does that mean, especially as enhanced unemployment and if off in certain states? what is the cause of this, and what does it take to narrow this gap and get workers back in the workforce, and what does it mean for wages? also today, we will hear about substantial further progress, perhaps. two fed presidents speaking. the key question is how much did

the labor market report we got friday further the argument for tapering sooner rather than later? also today, to give you a sense of the progress with respect to vaccinations and the pandemic, hong kong is planning to open its borders for the first time since the start of the pennant -- pandemic to some foreigners, fully vaccinated u.s. residents. also vaccinated americans will be allowed into canada for the first time, starting today pui seeing global border starting to open up just as cases start to increase. it does seem like people are plotting an end to the pandemic. jonathan: let's turn out to bill lee. how much progress have we just made towards substantial progress at the federal reserve? bill: everyone is trying to figure out how much pressure there is in the labor market, and the good numbers friday when a long way to give you a positive picture. one thing i should point out is

most of the wage gains we are worried about go to the low-wage workers. the first quartile is getting all of the gains but the fourth quartile has a steady wage, and the job gains are in entry-level jobs, because people have upgraded themselves. when you look how much we have made in the labor market, we have done a lot to restore the hospitality industry, but those are the low-wage sectors, and they should be getting higher wages. the law of productivity gains has come about, where companies have illuminated a lot of these jobs, and we are going to find a lot of people not getting jobs, and the fed is really concerned with not maximum unemployment but the axum extent of employment. the hawks will say a lot of progress has been made, but i think the chair and the possible next year are going to say we still have a lot -- long way to

go to maximum employment gains. tom: you nailed the zeitgeist -- you go to a productivity. -- you go to productivity. can we observe productivity in real time? bill: as you know, it is the hardest thing to measure, especially in the service sector, but one thing to keep in mind is the federal government has decided to balance its budget or raise revenues by corporate taxes. what is that going to do? cut back on investment and cut back on these productivity enhancing investments we need to keep inflation in check. i think the real danger is we will look at where prices are going and see these jobs dominate the wage increases, and we do not have the offset coming in from the high productivity investments that balance the high pressure from wages. lisa: what does this mean in

terms of the policy and for the months ahead versus where you think it should be? bill: i think chair powell and most of the fomc is concerned once we get past these bottleneck rice increases where we come back to a world where there is deflationary pressure, if we have a kinder productivity gains of the last two or three years, but if the corporate tax increases a put in place in the u.s. and around the world start to cut into the kind of investments we need to keep productivity up, then we will have a serious inflation problem and, as you mentioned, a stagflation problem, where growth starts to pick the upper bound of maybe 0.5% to 1%, and we started to see prices rise. jonathan: we have to talk about china, then. how big a factor is china and what you are discussing? bill: everyone looks at china for the leading indicator of where we are going. china came out of covid fairly early but is right now suffering

the consequences of their policies, which is every time they see a rise in cases, they shut down the economy, and that kills any kind of growth. the fear is the delta variant will cause china to shut down yet again and cause growth to fall way below where their planned targets are. you see the central bank and fiscal authorities putting in place a lot of insurance policies to bolster any kind of fallback in consumption, which is the weaker sector in china right now. tom: is there a track record that shows they can do that, that they concede if there is a policy to boost consumption? bill: one benefit of the command economies they will be able to boost consumption, but people will not be going out to restaurants. people in cities like shanghai will stay home and say it is not safe to go out. so we have a split in china where public consumption and public investment is pushing like crazy, they are financing

it with a lot of debt, but the private sector is not following through. jonathan: william lee, milken institute chief economist. if you focus on the american economy, there was a sign friday, that we have the first sign in a series of job reports, that demand would respond. the news out of china much less encouraging. tom: you got to get a global feel to it. indonesia, china, wherever, with the delta variant, there are huge disparities. i would say china is a half glass full. i am seeing research notes -- the best note over the weekend said it is moving so fast, our growth will click in -- she directly pushes against abramowicz. jonathan: but we will get back and forth, back and forth.

that is a typical market. -- difficult market. tom: it is great for those who want the vol, it is always there. but i look at a general tone of optimism off that report. what jason furman said was great. it is a wonderful report, go with it. look at america, glass half-full. china, glass half empty. lisa: inflation numbers we got out of china surged 9% in july. what this raises is how can chinese officials cut rates further to stimulate growth or even stabilize some of the financial market turmoil we have seen recently if you have inflation pressure? meanwhile, you have people slowing purchase because of doubts are, because of the higher prices. that is the concern, that it will crimp growth more this dynamic plays out and the more lockdowns persist. and how much it leaks out into

the global economy is something people do not have a sense of yet. it -- tom: i think this is great -- michael darling has a great note saying he reaffirms the above trend note. will there be a boom economy? no. but i go to the first condition of gdp -- it is good. jonathan: we will get our teeth into that. down five on the s&p. starting at the trading week little changed on the s&p 500. yields coming about one basis point. euro-dollar unchanged, 1.1759. from new york city good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word

news, i am ritika gupta. the infrastructure bill has cleared its last procedural hurdle in the u.s. senate. a vote on the final passage could take place as soon as today. the 550 billion dollar bill is a cornerstone of joe biden's economic agenda. a new report from the world's top climate scientists sees no end to rising temperatures before 2050. the assessment comes from the u.n.'s intergovernmental panel on climate change. it says the planet will keep warming unless there are drastic moves to reduce greenhouse gas pollution. u.s. infectious disease chief anthony xiao jie says booster shots should go soon to people with weakened immune systems, a further sign of how the delta variant keeps shifting the strategy for fighting the pandemic. he said he supports a vaccine mandate at local levels, such as schools and businesses. the highest-ranking aide to

embattled new york governor andrew cuomo has resigned. derosa features prominently in the report, described as a key architect in describing -- discrediting,'s accusers. and lionel messi has signed with paris st. germain. the club at barcelona is not renewing his contract. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we will have a vote tonight

at 7:30, then another vote. sometime on tuesday. it could go quicker, but it is going. jonathan: we are getting closer. louisiana senator bill cassidy speaking to cnn over the weekend. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. down seven points on the s&p, negative zero .16%. all-time highs through much of last week on the s&p 500. the yield higher through friday, lower through this morning. down by about a basis point to -- and the euro-dollar not doing much. the story of the morning, where the price action is, is in the commodity market. crude down to 65.50. tom: gold with some dynamics as well. the tradable readjustment is profound off what we saw friday

in jobs. it is august in washington. leading the headlines at the washington post is fallout boy will not appear at the national stadium with green day and a bunch of others. and we heard during -- annmarie hordern actually -- absolutely crushed. is a perceived in washington that the senate infrastructure is a waste of time, because all they will do is get to the house and face huge stumbling blocks? annmarie: it is a good point. i do not think people view it as a waste of time, because obviously you need a number of steps in washington, d.c. in order for any sort of plans to get the legislation. that i see the point you are making -- already we see house members that are moderate democrats circulating a letter over the weekend to speaker pelosi, saying the second the senate passes this infrastructure agreement, when we are back in session, we need to move on that, and also

voicing their concerns at the budget resolution, the reconciliation package democrats in the senate will begin working on before they go on recess, they say $3.5 trillion is too high for them. tom: what is the power right now of moderate democrats? it was all over the zeitgeist this weekend, a reaffirmation of what they are doing versus the liberals. what is actual power that you perceive? annmarie: their power right now is certainly in the senate in terms of the are going to have a budget resolution come to the floor, then they go out for recess, then they come back in september and will hammer out the details of that reconciliation, and that is the democrat only plan. and every single democrat in the senate needs to vote for that in order for that to go through. if you have senators, like joe manchin of west virginia or kyrsten sinema of arizona, if you have those senators saying this is too high for us, it cannot get through. then that could potentially temper what we are seeing in the

house. lisa: as they start to wrangle over these details, how much focus is still on the pandemic and the fact the number of cases have been rising pretty significant, particularly in southern states? annmarie: we heard from senator bill cassidy at the top of the program here talking about the timeline for the infrastructure package, but he was also questioned about the pandemic on the sunday shows. he comes from very hard hit louisiana, and actually he took a very different stance from what we are seeing from the governor florida when it comes to masking, saying if local health officials are saying people need to mask up due to high caseloads, and this is especially becoming a massive national debate when it comes to schools, he said we should listen to our health officials. it is definitely forefront in washington, the pandemic to fold, as they are trying to negotiate this infrastructure package. lisa: you mentioned florida. the governor has banned mask

mandates in schools, among other places. now there is a congress member, congressional candidate, suing him, saying this could potentially hurt people's health. where is the republican leadership when it comes to trying to guide on mask mandates as well as vaccination mandates among certain private employers, let alone public ones? annmarie: it is a bit sporadic, when you have governors like desantis sankey is prepping mask wearing in schools. arizona is taking a similar approach. it is really state-by-state. i would point to senator mitch mcconnell. he has been incredibly outspoken. he is using some of his election campaign funds to run ads in kentucky to tell people i had polio, we had a life-saving vaccine for polio, that is why people were able to overcome that. he is using that story to push his constituents to get the vaccine. by and large, many republicans are saying it is time to get the vaccine, even others who have

been on the sidelines, like presented if scalise, that's representative still east -- representative scalise got his shot. tom: what is the to do list? annmarie: to make sure the infrastructure bill goes to a final vote. then it is down to the budget resolution, the reconciliation package when they come back in september. it seems august, for democrats, is making sure they can shore up the votes in terms of when they come back in september, to get that package through. this is part of his huge agenda. the second thing to watch out for -- getting a first look at what treasury secretary janet yellen is going to say. she will push congress to go for a bipartisan approach when it comes to the debt ceiling, and set up putting it into the reconciliation package. so we cannot forget we have that debt ceiling drama percolating. jonathan: thank you very much. tom, it is not that sleepy,

making progress on the infrastructure package. we have inflation print in america, cpi front and center. tom: cpr front and center and also front and center are the moderate democrats. it will be fascinating to see how that evolves. i think it is happening sooner than we would normally see it in an off year. jonathan: inflation front and center for the people's bank of china. they just put out there second-quarter monetary report. they say the ppi surge is short-term. they do not use the "t" word, but sound like they are on board. tom: sounds like they're managing the message. as bill lee said, it is a command economy -- i think that is french for they have a lot of powers that we do not have, and they will do every thing they can to keep the job economy going. jonathan: and so many of issues around the supply side of the economy, not on the demand side. when we focus on the united

states specifically, those supply-side issues building again in china, giving the additional layer of restrictions we are seeing across the country. lisa: and what happens if people stay home and they cannot go to factories and cannot go to notes are production of key staples -- cannot go to nodes of production of key staples? which points towards some of the pacifism -- jonathan: this she is those temporary issues persist into a new year. let's get to the price action. dow 8 on the s&p 500, negative almost 0.2%. the bond market has been all over the place. 1.1258 at the lows last wednesday. yields in now, a basis point or two. we have to talk about the commodity market.

crude down by almost eight percentage points last week. worst weekly loss of the year for wti. we take more weight off and are down 3.8 percentage points to 65.6 seven. getting the trading week started here on "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city, good monday morning. the monday morning price action. -- into monday after friday, all-time highs on the s&p 500. a nice week of gains following that really beautiful, tidy, fantastic jobs report. is that enough for you, tom? the fed jobs report, that upside surprise unlocking high treasury yields. 1.3050, right now down to numb. tom: is that two-year a big deal? jonathan: it becomes a bigger deal into next year, i think, when we start to have this real conversation about higher interest rates with the federal reserve. the tapering story -- it is not about when or if, it is about

whether they can aggressively delink any decision on tapering. but when you start to talk about higher interest rates, when you start to think about a stronger dollar, as we make more progress towards substantial progress the federal reserve, that is a nasty recipe -- a big gap lower overnight. when it is a big gap lower overnight and you have no idea what you are talking about, you tall -- call it technical, liquidity. there are other big issues around for gold. the fact of the matter is we had the biggest conversation about inflation in about a generation, and this has -- one we have a conversation about inflation fading, gold started higher. tom: i think we are data dependent, to say the least. important data after that jobs

report. what we are data dependent on is to understand it is not just about large-cap stocks. david sowerby with two brief a visit this morning with ancora, on the value of mid-caps. we look to go to the heart of it right now, the capitalization out there. what is the uncommon value among small caps, mid-caps, and large-cap? david: if you take the small and mid and put them together, after the weakness from march until recently, they are trading at a relative discount to their large-cap siblings by 10% to 15%, when they are going to grow earnings faster, when real gdp, this quarter, is likely to still be a better than 10%, and you're always able to unlock value in those stocks that have fewer wall street analysts following them. that gives you a pretty good backdrop for small and mid-cap stocks to be an investor today. tom: can you unlock growth with

those categories of capitalization? david: if it is about growth, it is looking less at the income statement, always at the statement of cash flows, and where companies are generating very above average free cash flow, and with that cash flow, they are allocating the capital right well -- quite well, whether it is share repurchase, increased dividend, i think companies, from what i've seen, in a number of management calls, has been quite robust. lisa: corporate america has successfully passed along higher cost to consumers are that was the take away from second-quarter earnings. how long can they continue to do that? is this pricing power something they can continue to have, or are we reaching the edge of how much further consumers will pay these higher prices as some of these unemployment benefits roll off? david: i think the earnings backdrop will still be quite good over the next year. we will still grow earnings

comfortably in excess of 10%. that makes the equity market still the place to be. on the inflation side, we will watch that inflation number this week. it has been averaging 0.8% most of the last three or four months. i am of the camp that, relative to wall street, and heaven forbid, relative to the federal reserve, i think inflation will be more of an issue in that type of environment, stocks are still your best inflation hedge. maybe you layer in real assets like commodities to be that bumper when stocks may not be your best inflation hedge. lisa: but the story has been on for a while. when you talk to investors, they all say they are looking for companies with pricing power. how much has not been priced in, the idea certain companies will be able to withstand higher prices, going forward, then others? david: i think wall street is still drinking the fed's

kool-aid that this inflation issue will not your problem at all -- i think there will be pricing power for companies. in that environment, look at the u.s. consumer. talk about that at the federal level, the government level. it is a problem. it is not a problem for consumers to be able to absorb some of those prices. they generated a dollar in personal income, allowing consumers to buy stocks like a spinoff out of wrangler, lee jeans. i think consumers will farewell. tom: you have been her rook on avoiding the single-digit gloom of equities. you have been dead on. what are you telling pension people now? is it a single-digit, low single-digit world? or can you be more optimistic? david: if you are looking at u.s. domestic equities, in the

u.s. domestic world, it is probably an 8% environment. and if you are a good generator of alpha and excess return, you are pushing closer to 10%. tom: thank you so much. david sowerby out of ancora. jon, i do not know this story. the video speaks volumes. this kid out of argentina was 13 when he went to barcelona. we do not do that in america. jonathan: and 21 years later, he has got to leave, and it comes down to one thing -- it comes down to money. we catch up with a real madrid fan, maria tadeo. as i from the fact that you are probably happy about this, we have gone from super league from european football to know super league in european football, and barcelona cannot keep hold of its star. maria: yeah, and i'm actually not that evil.

i do feel bad, because yesterday this was very moving. you can really tell that this was someone who has made a career in barcelona. that really also wanted to stay. you mentioned why did this happen? of course, this is money. the team said they cannot afford to pay. but he did reveal he was willing to take a 50% cut on his contract, so it makes you wonder why did it not happen? aside from the money, this is telling us two things. one is that the contracts are becoming so expensive that, even if you are very successful team, you are not able to pay it. and two, they are very badly managed. a lot of this comes down to barcelona being really badly managed, the fact that you are not able to keep your star player because of money, you are one of the most successful teams in the world, it tells you a few things about just how badly run you have been. jonathan: how can psg make this work and barcelona can't?

maria: it is fair play rose from the leak. when you play in spain, the league says you have to only spend up to us and amount of money, then after that, you're not able to do it. our soluna was hoping they could sell a few players, that they could get transfer fees from a number of players, and that meant that messi could stay on. you also have to factor in barcelona is in our terms with the regulator of the spanish league because of the super league itself. in paris, it is easier because the same rules do not apply. tom: nobody america -- nobody in america cares. we only care about premier league, 7:00 a.m. saturday morning. it is all about tv. we know that with the olympics as well. as pst get bigger tv because he goes there? jonathan: i think there will be more on the french league. but for la liga, we have to talk la liga. cristiano ronaldo is gone from real madrid.

sergio ramos gone. barcelona, lino messi is gone. -- lionel messi is gone. why do i want to watch la liga, and is that going to be a problem? maria: and the fact that a big stars coming to spain tells you a lot -- it has not been a good summer and it has not been a good year for the spanish teams. you make a good point. who will watch this? when you think el clasico, it is always renaldo versus messi. one is playing in italy, the other will play in france. that will devalue the spanish league. it also shows a strategy will not pay off. it has been about one star player carrying the team. in fact, it shows it is better to diversify. you have players who are better on the field, but none of them have the star quality, and the teams are built around one man, messi and renaldo for real madrid -- ronaldo for real

madrid. tom: why can't messi go to one of the london teams? jonathan: the question is if he wants to. he was talking to his friends in psg -- i guess he wants to team up with his best friend neymar. tom: you are cruel to bury her, just trashing on her. jonathan: i like maria. maria's not upset. what's he talking about? maria's made of strong stuff. psg, that lineup. i am trying to think what the comparison would be. to have that lineup of neymar, b appe, the likes of messi upfront, behind sergio ramos in defense -- that starting 11, in terms of the stars -- tom: but who do they play? jonathan: that is the issue.

a lot of people are quite unfriendly about the french league. i do not endorse that view of things. but at a league level, they will not have to play many people. it is at the champions league level that things will be interesting. can they finally win that elusive champions league at paris and germany? are we done here? tom: no, we are not done -- jonathan: we spent the start of the year by european super league, and the clubs involved still want to make it happen. they have hardly spent any money. tom: michael gibbons went to the cincinnati reds. that is a huge deal. jonathan: thank you. special thanks to maria tadeo for joining us on the latest. i can tell you pst it hired -- psg hired out the eiffel tower for august 10. i think there will be an announcement brewing. tom: we should go, road trip. jonathan: i knew that was what this was about. the start of league -- i think

it's already started. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ritika: the u.s. senate code pass that 500 billion dollar infrastructure package as soon as today. lawmakers moved a step closer to a final vote by agreeing to limit debate on the measure. 18 republicans joined with all 50 democratic senators, an indication of bipartisan support for the bill. the biden administration faces the reality that returning to the iran nuclear deal may no longer be feasible. u.s. officials are reviewing their options after months of talks of reentry. iran has found ways to cope with u.s. sanctions, and it is racing towards the capacity to build a nuclear bomb.

and a victory for norwegian cruise line and its vaccine requirements. a preliminary court injunction will allow norwegian to require proof of vaccination to board its ships. a recent state law in florida band vaccine requirements. that has been put on hold for now. alibaba fired a manager accused of rape. china's largest e-commerce company is trying to contain the fallout after the account went viral. the story ignited debate about rampant sexism in china's tech industry. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

>> we all worry about the day when ovarian arrives that is so

different from the original wuhan virus that, basically, the vaccines stop working as well, and we have to really move forward quickly with the booster. the best way to prevent that from happening is to reduce the number of infections, because that is how means happens. jonathan: the national institutes of health director francis collins there. alongside tom and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. -0.2% on the s&p. as the week progresses, it gets a little more interesting. cpi wednesday, the main event for many people watching the economy. 1.27 67 your yields on 10. crude lower by four percentage points. commodities heading south. tom: i do not know what the fed people will say out to september 22. they have to look at the data,

including the next jobs report. jonathan: september 3. august 11 we get the cpi read. then jobs, then another cpi print before september 22. tom: just after the ides of september, the 15th of the month -- we will have a lot of knowledge about this new pandemic, this new part of a pandemic, for schools. every buddy has their calendar. joshua sharfstein joins from johns hopkins. what are pros doing when they look at the new conundrum of getting schools launched in the classroom? dr. sharfstein: i think they are looking at the data, which shows if you have multiple mitigation measures in place, you are in the best possible position to prevent illnesses for teachers, other adults in school, and students. those measures are going to include masks for teachers and students, vaccines for all the adults and older kids who can

take them, and better ventilation. if other things. if you do those things, you are really minimizing the chance of a problem, probably to the point where it is quite low. we will obviously have to see how this plays out. it is very disturbing to me is how some school boards are acting like the virus is really not that much of a threat, and they could be sorely mistaken. lisa: what do you think is a remedy, given the fact that it seems to be a state-by-state endeavor with florida actually banning mask mandates in schools, other saying you need to wear masks, and frankly that teachers need to get vaccinated? dr. sharfstein: you are seeing some school boards in florida and elsewhere look themselves in the mirror and say do we put the health of children first? and if they say yes to that simple question, do we put the health of children first, they are following what the cdc says, they are following what the nation's pediatricians, the american academy of pediatrics,

essay, and they are requiring masks in schools, and they are doing it, in defiance of state law in some cases, but frankly, they are doing it to save serious among the children they are responsible for. lisa: given the fact you focus on public health, how important is it that zsa zsa gabor to school when you look at the studies that talk about depression, the fact that have fallen behind in so many areas in remote schooling? how important is it for them to get back in the classroom in a consistent way? dr. sharfstein: i think it is extremely important, which is why we should do everything for that, to be safe as possible. it was a year ago, a few weeks ago -- a little over a year ago that i co-authored a piece in the journal of the american medical association, talking about all the harms when kids are not in school. and there are many. it is not just anxiety depression. it is not on the food you eat.

potential poor recognition of mistreatment, because so many kids are recognized as being enthused in school. there are so many reasons for kids to go back to school, but we have to do it safely. the school boards, superintendents, principals not standing up for the health of kids are doing them a disservice, and they may come to regret it. tom: how does a given fifth grader get sick from covid versus adults? dr. sharfstein: basically, they get sick the same way. they get exposed, often from somebody who is not massed, and they will experience a respiratory illness. and it could be quite severe. we are seeing there are really three ways for kids to be harmed. obviously, very serious illness is a problem, then -- and that could include a state in the intensive care unit and, rarely, death. but it is also possible to get an immune reaction about a month

after which could be quite debilitating and serious with lifelong consequences. then you have long covid. a big story today about kids who have brain fog and fatigue, maybe as high as 1 in 15. these are all serious consequences. it is why we have to really look at kids, the other kids, not compared to older adults. but what if this were just about kids and do the right thing to help kids. lisa: just a couple months ago, other colleagues of yours were saying the pandemic is over, we have to move to a post-pandemic reality -- you said not so fast, it is not over. unfortunately, you were more right. what will make you say it is over? dr. sharfstein: i think the key is to watch the number of infections, and then our understanding of what is going on. at the time i was saying that, all the models were predicting a

resurgence or that was before the delta variant. what mattered was vaccination levels to high levels. if we protected ourselves through vaccinations and were seeing the conscious -- consequences of that in fewer infections, i would be excited about talking about this pandemic back into a box. it may cause a little bit of damage, but we can dramatically limit that if we do the things we know will work. jonathan: joshua sharfstein there, johns hopkins school of public health vice dean. in number to think about -- the daily average of vaccines administered in this country, 706,300 23 doses per day -- 70 6,323 doses per day. tom: just seeing it continue on his half the battle. i saw a working number 71% vaccinated. clearly, experts are telling us it is not good enough. jonathan: it is not enough. lisa: especially because it is

uneven. the new york times did a great study showing the estate, whether above or below average, and the number of cases. the fewer people vaccinated, the more you're seeing an uptick in cases now. you wonder how idiosyncratic does this come, how does a national level target state level parameters? jonathan: disparity in headline numbers firsters -- had numbers for sure. wednesday is your cpi report in the united states of america. 1.2750 in 10's. the euro-dollar, 1.175. president wiseman sounding like president of eiseman. -- it is a question of credibility. that in a german newspaper this morning. look out below crude.

down almost a percentage points last week. now to 65.35 in w ti. concerns about what happens next, not in america but in china. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the economy, the empty cubicles have not stopped. >> the fed is being very clear to want to avoid the taper tantrum. >> we are expecting the marketable and lower rather than higher. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: all-time highs into monday. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. down 2/10 of 1% on the s&p. a series of upgrades over the past week the u.s. equity market. >> the view forward for the strategists is simple. it confirms a