♪ >> we really have to keep our eye on who is in the labor force, who is coming back. >> and recent reporting, saying that they've got inflation problems to deal with. we expect that to persist. >> we don't think the fed is still bothered by this degree of inflation. >> wall street may still be drinking the fed's kool-aid that this inflation issue will be not a problem at all. >> is there anybody on the planet who doesn't think the fed is going to be tapering next year? no. in fact, if they are not tapering, we've got a serious problem.

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, it is a stew of a market this morning. we've got the data we will talk about in a moment. bonds moving, equity moving. they are these little tips of change in the market. jonathan: but there's one story, and you have been on top of it. corporate america has been ready to go. the duration mismatch between the bonds and the supply response. that is going to be the story into year-end, and many google -- many people thought the pivot would come. demand rocksolid. keep going back to this story. will that disrupt the supply side story? will we get a second wave of shocks into the system if they start to tighten things up? tom: i will go with china, but also the real zillow see -- the resiliency of american corporations.

it's a really nuanced debate not just for the end of this year, before the end of next year. jonathan: will margins hold up? that is the question. they surprised to the upside through the year so far. morgan stanley's raising questions about this. tom: margins will hold up, but it is also about the revenue line as well. ben laidler clearly stating that there is a great mist call here on the prosperity of profits and revenues, and it just come down to the might of america and its economic growth. tom: economic earnings are projected to have grown 90% in the second corder. i keep coming back to this statistic. yes, there are disruptions in the year-over-year comp that is a really easy one. however, the extent of the beat is shocking. the question is how long can this persist, given that consumers have this huge stockpile of cash savings.

can they grow their earnings at a faster pace? tom: let's go through the data. i want you to center right now on a one: -- a 1.32 percent 10 year yield. that is a substantial move from the panic yield we saw eight days ago. jonathan: down to 1.12% back on wednesday. the bulk of strategists come on this program looking for high yields, does not as high as they were previously. goldman coming into about one point 60%. morgan stanley looking for high yield. most of the big banks on wall street still looking for high yields, but i keep asking the basic question. the fed is good to go, right? most fed officials are setting us up for that at some point over the next six months. does that lead to higher yields are lower yields? when you ask people in the bond market, they don't exactly have the confidence and conviction you would expect. tom: the more ambiguity, there's

a lot of ambiguity there. i will look at the ultimate global litmus pager. -- litmus paper. he mentioned the resilient dollar, to say the least. jonathan: are we starting to see some decoupling emerge again. we are talking about more fiscal effort down in washington, 550 billion dollars on the one side, and that the democrats will go for the big one. elsewhere, in germany, do you have the same enthusiasm? tom: em as well. jonathan: the confidence read in germany today was dreadful. euro-dollar back down to 1.17. tom: i really want to emphasize dxy with a solid 93 prince this morning. the blending of the major trading partner, maybe the most important statistic on my screen. chris chris and he joins us with mai capital on the equity

markets -- chris chris anti--- chris gri -- chris grisanti joins us now with mai capital on equity markets. chris: if you have been an equity manager a long time, you have a little humility and know that the bond market is usually older and wiser than you are. but this time, i tend to disagree with it. it gets back to jonathan's point. we are getting conflicting signals. i feel at the bond market is saying what are you going to believe, me or your own eyes? because our eyes are seeing gdp growing at high single digits, and it matters because earnings are nominal. wages you and i think of as nominal. so earnings are strong across all our portfolio sectors. i just ink that the bond market here is wrong and that rates are

going to be headed higher when the fed starts to taper. i get the conflict, but you have an $80 billion a month buyer is going to leave the market, and that is a big deal. jonathan: the number one question for the equity market, the rand -- demand is really strong. how expensive would it be to get supply through? what does that mean for your equity call looking out? chris: the biggest story that hasn't really been covered is that a year ago on forward earnings, the s&p was in the mid to high 20's, very expensive. now, because of the unbelievable earnings growth, the run rate of third-quarter earnings, that can be messed up if rates rise to quickly or if we see the biggest threat as wage inflation for next year. so i am much more in the fire camp than the ice camp, and that is what i'm afraid of. lisa: which sectors have the

particular wage pressures you are most watching out for? lisa: at first -- chris: at first i would have said things away from the reopening sectors, but now i see it all over the place. you can't get things as simple as mcdonald's workers and things like that, but also there's not enough crabs. there's not enough masons. there's not enough autoworkers. while commodities go up and down , wages going one direction and tend to stick there. tom: revenues continued to outpace, and margins do better than well, even with rising wages. do you have a conviction that revenues do well? chris: i do, and i think part of that is a little bit of inflation, which will make the revenue line look a little bit better reporting companies. part of it is we paid $5 trillion for this recovery. we got to enjoy it.

that will certainly spur energy from sectors of travel and communication, so i am looking to that for the next year or two. jonathan: what is on the shopping list if we get these broader corrections? chris: starting from the assumption that my job is to make people money, internet advertising, when you think it is a nice model, that is like calling katie k a decent swimmer. as katie lee duck-hee -- calling katie ledecky a decent swimmer. youtube will have more revenue next year than netflix, and they don't have to pay for their content. this internet ads advertising things is much stronger than most people think. jonathan: youtube will have more revenue than netflix, and they don't have to pay for the content. that's unreal.

>> that's absolutely right. jonathan: chris grisanti, mai capital management ceo. tom: my simplistic analysis is google catches up with the rest. it really had a big 2020. who knows what they're 2022 will look like. dan ives and we talk, and a lot of people say it will continue to go forward with a ton of free cash flow. jonathan: would you come up with 56% year to date. lisa: no, it also points to the bifurcation within the faang names. chris was pointing to netflix as being the loser in this case when it comes to the comp with google. if you take a look, one of the worst performers on the year because of some concerns there, the difference between some of the faang names.

jonathan: if you want to talk about breakup risk, you've got a company in youtube, part of the parent company alphabet, and youtube is making more revenue potentially over the next year than netflix and is not have to pay for the content. let's go. that seems to be the message here. lisa: basically, what is the problem here? you do have to wonder when congress gets involved and says we are a little bit concerned and taking away market share. jonathan: we talk almost exclusively about the tech killer growth story. this is a cyclical story. we saw with twitter, snap, others too. tom: there's a bit of a cyclicality to it. the numbers are unimaginable. to try to extrapolate the ad business of the entrenched winners and amazon, they are numbers you can't grasp. i did in the extrapolation of one of these stocks the other

day. lisa: jon, do you have myspace. jonathan: i do not have myspace. i remember it. i never had it that. lisa: the reason i ask is because why is no one talking about the risk of just becoming obsolete? you have the likes of apple selling 40 year bonds. jonathan: we have been discussing that. lisa: in the markets, you don't hear that very commonly discussed. what is the future of some of these technologies? chris: this remind me of the -- tom: this reminds me of the blues song "cupertino bloom." [laughter] jonathan: how muddy people do you think will buy that forty-year paper and hold? you always think it will be someone else's problem isn't that the point? lisa: that's why i'm gloomy. [laughter] jonathan: it is an important question, and that's why we ask it. lisa is gloomy, new/on a charles summer morning on tuesday --

gloomy, on a summer morning on tuesday. this is bloomberg. ritika: apple's next iphone lineup will get at least three new major camera and video recording updates. in addition to the upgrades, the new phones will have a faster chip speed and new screen technology. the devices are expected to go on sale in the next few weeks. president biden's big plans for the economy are about to pass their major legislative test. the group of senators is prepared to use the plan to bypass republicans on the bipartisan part -- on the non-bipartisan part. the covid wave that hit art of the ozarks in the deep south has now embraced the dutch has now

engulfed the country. 12 states and washington, d.c. have rates in the second-worst category. the european union has decided not to reinstate restrictions on non-essential travel from the u.s. that have spiked by new covid cases. the government of each member state can decide whether to follow it or not. mc post-its second-quarter revenue that beat estimates. meanwhile, mc's loss was narrower than -- amcs loss was still narrower than expected. the company is still struggling over $5 million of market debt. i'm ritika gupta. this is bert. -- this is bloomberg. ♪

>> gross is -- growth is strong

enough to be supportive of corporate earnings, but not strong enough that it leads to inflation and meaningful fed tightening, so it could be a cycle that goes on for some time. jonathan: sounds a bit like gold box -- like goldilocks there. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p 500. yields in about a basis point almost. let's round this down for you. 1.316 9%. trying to generate a bit of excitement. $57.57 on wti, up a further 0.5%. on the morning, not much going on across this market. tom: we are watching any number of stories right now, but certainly the large story in washington, we wanted to get a breath of fresh air always with ag invest -- with ag f'investments g -- with agf

investments' gregory valliere. i look at the smith, who we spoke with earlier in minnesota. there are a lot of people who have to step very carefully in these two proposals. gregory: absolutely. this first one will be in a few hours. we all know that. but i am not euphoric that this somehow means we've got this done. the real heavy lifting would be on the second bill. people like smith know it, and at some point they are going to have to give this bill a very big haircut. tom: is it a new deal? i get the politics and the

symbolism, but you are expert on the breadth of history of our politics. is it a biden new deal? gregory: yes it is coming to a large extent. if they got what we proposed yesterday, and i would argue that 3.5 trillion dollars could quickly go down to $2.5 trillion, may 2 trillion dollars or even below that, i think we will get a bill. but there's some big obstacles. the debt ceiling, the fact that a smaller price tag would infuriate the progressives like alexandria because he of cortez -- like alexandria alexandria ocasio-cortez, who has votes. just because we get a deal today does not portend we will get a deal in two months lisa: how car -- two months. lisa: how far can the bipartisan bill go without something more concrete on this other reconciliation package? greg: that is a great question.

i think if we don't get the second part saying we are going to use reconciliation as a big goal where you won't have it. but it looks like at least for now, there's a very intractable battle over raising the debt ceiling that is going to complicate everything. lisa: the reason i ask is because a lot of people are treating the bipartisan plan is a sure thing. it has a lot of support on all sides, and yet it does seem to be linked in sort of an unknowable way to this other proposal that seems like pie-in-the-sky, according to almost all accounts. there's a question of what is the willingness of democrats to torpedo the bipartisan effort in order to push forward something on the other side. greg: there is a willingness if you talk to people like joe manchin or kyrsten sinema that they would never agree to tax

increases of this magnitude. if i am not mistaken, we have an election coming up next year, and the idea that we are going to read taxes this dramatically i think would be suicidal on the part of the democrats. lisa: meanwhile, inflation very much in the forefront of people's minds. we got a survey out of the federal reserve showing that consumer expectations for inflation are rising to the highest level since at least 2013. how does that play in some of the spending debates? greg: it is a factor. the republicans are arguing somewhat disingenuously that spending will cause inflation. a lot of commodities have dropped in the last few weeks. oil, copper, lumber. but the republicans will play this up. they've got some big issues. immigration, inflation, and in my opinion, especially crime. tom: who are you watching in the

republican party, away from former president trump. who does greg valliere watch in washington? greg: for weeks and weeks, everyone said to santos. his halo has slipped in florida, no question. the new name right now is an african-american republican from south carolina, tim scott, a very well spoken, not way out on the right, likable guy. he may run for president and he is racing a lot of -- he is raising a lot of money. jonathan: go on, tom. tom: sorry, my brain was just going there. i could talk to valliere for hours. jonathan: you can get one in. tom: raising money is a huge deal. explain why raising money is the heart of the matter. jonathan: you've got to have ads -- greg: you've got to have ads on tv, and if you want ads on tv you've got to raise a lot of money. we are seeing saturation already in d.c. for the virginia gubernatorial race which is still two and a half months away. tom: is it like that in the united states?

does boris johnson have to raise a lot of money? jonathan: no, things are a little more straightforward. tom: i wish we get there. jonathan: i know which one you would prefer. greg, thank you. greg valliere, agf investments chief u.s. policy strategist. just to sum things up, it is going to be hard to get all this done anytime soon. tom: that is where i have been all along. but they are allowed to take a victory lap. that's part of it. lisa: not if they haven't gotten it done. tom: but they are going to get it done. jonathan: the senate is going to get it done. to some extent, on one side of things today. lisa: absolutely. there is a vote scheduled for 11:00 a.m., no more amendments. the question is how far that goes. does the house sign onto it? jonathan: the issue the white house has right now is within

its own party. . really slim margins here. . tom: there was an era of clinton, an era of obama, and what people don't remember his before clinton, this is what the democratic party looked like. it was normal to be this fractious jonathan: trying to -- this fractious. jonathan: trying to get massive things done on slim margins can really come back around and smack you around the head when it comes around midterms next year. jonathan: -- tom: 538 yesterday put out there number four -- they're wonderful new website where they will put out all of the battles. it is going to be tangible. jonathan: i am going to go to the break now. are you ok? tom: i'm ok. i'm overwhelmed by the gloom today. lisa: i love that someone says raising money, and he says, let's talk about money. tom: i just don't get it. i wish it was like you can i do

kingdom -- the united kingdom. what can i say? jonathan: yields unchanged on tens, 1.3036%. i would love to go. p&g, a great team. just need someone interesting for them to play against. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. cpi print in america is your next stop. the week begins on wednesday. it really does. cpi tomorrow morning. your equity market is totally unchanged on the s&p 500 after a softer start to the week, a mild move lower. outside of bonds, one point 1721 on euro-dollar. the bond market, looking for 1.60 at goldman, 1.75 at j.p. morgan, 1.75 at td securities. those big names looking for yields to move higher even though a couple of them have

trimmed the forecast. tom: that is the full faith and credit headline. let's start the show on the intel headlines. intel kicks off u.s. corporate bonds. is it the kind of thing where when rates start to go up, cfos panic and say let's issue now? lisa: i think there's a lot more going on. this is incredibly low in terms of benchmark rate and the extra yield investors demand to own corporate credit is near all-time lows. this is a phenomenal time to issue debt will stop why wouldn't you? a lot of these companies, especially if their investment grade, they have to explain why are they are not borrowing. that is the reason you are seeing record issuances. tom: into the real yield, you can see that friday afternoon. jonathan: real yields it negatives still.

a bit of a correction on friday. we talked recently about the asymmetric risk around negative real yields. they got deeply negative last week. i wonder what that picture looks like as we start to remove additional q. week. the fed -- additional qe. the fed has been clear. i like to see it as the doves and the super dobbs. tom: i go back to what neil dutta said. it is like the three stooges. inch by inch. jonathan: september, maybe later on. what is a couple of months? is a couple of months what divides the super doves and the doves on the fomc? a couple of months of qe? tom: right now, and a joy because of our president note -- because of a prescient note, lara rhame joins us. she is jaded and grizzled and

she takes a whole different look. i love how you take it out to where we are with our many jump balls. which is the jump ball you are the most focused on? lara: the jump all right now is inflation rising significantly. at that we will get another upside surprise on wednesday and it is starting to bubble up from a lot of different places. when you look at the fed and their new framework, it seems like everybody on the fomc is interpreting that a little bit differently. that is the jump ball right now. we get the inflation numbers and we get the doves talk about how we have made substantial progress. we can think about removing policy accommodations sooner rather than later. then we get the super dobbs talking about years of high inflation. that is the jump all right now. we are stuck in the middle. jonathan: j.p. morgan came out

with the following line. "incrementally we have learned the fomc tolerance for inflation overshoot is not as large as we had previously understood." would you agree with that statement? lara: that is absently right. that is a good example -- that is absolutely right. that is a good example of what we need to know. more clarity about their tolerance for higher inflation, their definition of transients. they have been talking about this being transient. i do not think markets appreciate some talking about into 22. i think we could get higher inflation for quarters, not for a couple of months. that is where the confusion is coming from. i do not think they ever expected their framework to be tested so quickly. it is really being put to the test now. jonathan: there are clearly temporary factors behind the higher rates of inflation and

some of those temporary factors may fade. this was always about whether it would reshape the inflation process. the higher prices now would set the stage for higher prices in the future. are you starting to see signs of that that would lead the federal reserve to blank. where are you seeing signs? lara: three things. we have had higher inflation without sustained increase -- we know with housing price increases, that sector could start to stage significant gains. every time we claim this is transient it rotates out and something new rotates in. the second point is wage pressure. whether that sticks around will be important. when you start adding workers of higher wages it is hard to take those away. and the margin story. i feel like i'm tying about -- i feel like i'm tying a bow on

all of your guest. lisa: thank you. there is a question if we are focusing too much on the federal reserve. inflation has already provided some reactive mechanism. sentiment on u.s. business owners came out this morning below all estimates in a survey by bloomberg, taking out all gains in the month of june, they reported to supply chain disruption, pointing to higher-margin cost, higher labor input cost. how much are we going to see it dampening and economic growth regardless of what the federal reserve does because of these pressures. it is unclear how much the fed could affect with the tapering earlier. lara: that is the problem when the u.s. grows at a rate we could see emerging markets at. we do not have the infrastructure. when you look abroad, the pandemic is still one of the

biggest risk factors, the way the pandemic is impacting china. our supply chains are delicate and they are fragile and that is another good example where after the second quarter, we are probably going to decelerate. not a negative economic forecast. we will still be growing at a strong pace, but deceleration will start to feel uncomfortable and you may see that in the business sector. lisa: when you talk about supply chain issues stemming from china , something jonathan is keeping -- is speaking a lot about and tom is saying why is everyone so gloomy? the earnings are amazing in corporate america is dynamic. you think analysts are too gloomy or are not pricing in enough slow down into year end? lara: i think corporate america has remained -- as strong as the earnings has been, their balance

sheet has remained conscientious. what i am concerned about his forward momentum to all of this. we have gotten such strong stimulus, such strong domestic momentum. you see strong u.s. growth was all we needed to raise global growth. now these other large economies seem to be tightening too fast in china, or slowing down and not addressing covid. it is a more global world. we need more than just the u.s. to raise the global growth profile. tom: i made a joke about it earlier, but you have such a great perspective because of

your foreign exchange battle scars. that is about when the facts change, i change. will america's corporations change as the facts change or will they be malleable and continue to sustain profits? lara: i hope this is -- i hope they change. i see a lot of signs we need to think our investment in productivity enhancing growth. we need to value labor more. we cannot rely on this high tech manufacturing coming from abroad forever. we need to bring it home. they have the money to do it. now's the time to start pivoting towards that. after all of these years it is hard for me to get bearish on the dollar. things right now are still looking good for the greenbacks, particularly when you are thinking about emerging markets. jonathan: thank you. great to catch up. lara rhame, fs investments chief u.s. economist, looking for the fed to blank and inflation to be or persistent. i was reflecting on the issue that came from amazon last year, you remember that? they borrowed at .4% or something for three year paper?

three your borrowing cost at amazon, 0.4 basis points? unreal, the borrowing costs. tom: their debt under just 7%. to put the intel offering, they are heavily indebted. i am saying this facetiously. the indebted intel 14%, apple 5%. it is stunning, the reticence to bring on debt in a corporation today. jonathan: the foreign cost of those companies is remarkably low. lisa: looking in investment grade corporate bond yields -- 2%. this is even lower. that is the average. the average of the index has gotten closer to the bbb portion, heavily weighted to the lower rated companies. a top rated company, is basically free money. jonathan: we talked about this at the aggregate level, at the

top companies some of that has been financing -- has been refinancing. they get the luxury of coming to the markets and tapping it for uber low yields and low rates. lisa: that is why using a record pace of share buybacks and why should see more of them. why not. jonathan: that was almost bullish. calm down. lisa: don't worry. jonathan: commercial break coming up. i will disappear stop i expect someone bearish to return that calls herself lisa abramowicz. michelle meyer joins us later, bank of america securities head of economics. looking forward to optimism from michelle after two hours from lisa. you're saying i am not being bearish, i am -- lisa: looking around corners. jonathan: every single morning. monday through friday from 6:00 to 9:00 eastern.

this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. senate is moving closer to passing that $550 billion infrastructure bill. a vote is scheduled for 11:00 eastern. once the measure is passed democrats plan to approve a budget resolution that would clear the way for passage of the rest of president biden's economic agenda. they could do that without any republican support. for the first time in decades american workers are calling the shots. companies such as kroger, under armour, encz up ole are pushing up hourly wages to try to retain employees. workers are scoring the biggest pay hikes since the early 1980's. wages for the leisure and hospitality have risen at an annual rate of 6.6% in the last two years. this is for tom. the past late of the final levels of the cfa analyst exam plunged to a historic low. only 42% of applicants past in may and june. the cfa institute says changes

to test schedules to the to the pandemic and resulting disruptions to study habits hurt the pass rate. messy as a new team -- he has agreed to join paris saint ge rmain. he is considered one of soccer's all-time great and spent the entire year with barcelona. salary requirements prevent a new deal with the team. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there are ways to address wealth inequality, and the fed does not have them.

there is taxes, there are transfers. the fed cannot go this alone. the idea that raising interest rates a couple of basis points is going to fix a long-standing problem in the u.s. economy is ludicrous. tom: the always interesting claudia sahm. one of our great thinkers on washington policy and linking into our real economic growth. it has been one of the commitments of bloomberg surveillance. right now we drive it forward for you on radio and television with one of the most interesting economist of a generation. a decade ago or even more i learned about field economics. our colleague is esther duflo. has become definity on poverty economics, the new economic data has become definitive -- has

become definitive on poverty economics. congratulations on not only the acclaim you have received but the persistency you work with in studying poverty. part of that is in one of the chapters of your book the end of growth. give us the optimism that growth has not ended. esther: i don't believe i can give the optimism. it depends if you have a glass half-full or glass half-empty. the truth is we do not know. growth does whatever it wants to do. very difficult to project how to nurture it. we know how to kill it. there's a good study on how to kill growth. once the basic conditions are there we do not know how to nurture it. that is the bad news. the good news means it comes and goes and policymakers and economists can do a lot of

things to make sure once it is there everyone in the economy can take maximum advantage of it. tom: i look at the idea of growth and poverty and the foundation of this is robert solow at m.i.t. and the study of growth over the years. the elephant in the room is technology and its advantages. generally process technology over to relieve poverty, or is the benefits of technology the benefits of the elite? esther: another thing robert solow told us is technology -- what we call technology is what we are not good at measuring. for the second thesis, we do not know whether it helps our hurts. if we have new machines that replace workers -- it happened

during the industrial revolution, it is happening again today. there is no big law that says workers will necessarily find another job and there is no big law of economics that says they will not. it depends on whether they are helped him a whether they are accompanied, whether they are trained in new technology. there is massive role for policy and for policymaking to accompany the process of the diverging of technology and to make it a force for good as opposed to a force for destruction. lisa: a perfect example is the technology we have seen deployed for the mrna inoculation that have helped stave off some of the progress of the covid-19 virus. one thing i find fascinating is that your book, first published in november 2019, focused intensely on the need to get

vaccines across the world to prevent certain diseases. why has there not been more money and more of a coordinated effort to create a network of vaccinations globally well before this pandemic? esther: what is sad and await that to some extent this network does exist, and it is a successful international initiative that has been quite effective at promoting the spread of immunization around the world before the covid pandemic. there has been a lot of progress in the decades until 2019. we have not found a more effective way to save lives then childhood immunization. when the covid-19 pandemic came in technology -- large efforts in government funding, we had a vaccine so quickly -- somehow we

have not been able to mobilize it to immunize the entire world against covid. this is sad because it was there. it was not going to take much more than money and single-minded focus on the entire world, and just on the u.s.. jonathan: thank you -- tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciated this morning in celebration of her new effort. lisa, i am looking at the tape this morning. i love what lara rhame said about a jump ball. we have 14 jump balls on the bloomberg terminal. lisa: which is part of the reason why few look the price action people do not know what to do with it. we do not know which jump ball will come next. we seem to be a tipping point where we see the job starting to get filled and people going back

to work meaningfully and we have to reassess the time of getting people back in their seats. this reassessment will have a market implication people do not know how to price. tom: some of it is off the jobs report. the monday or tuesday after the jobs report is always clumsy. to me the key things with the jobs report was the revision and the idea of 832,000 over the last three months. that really changes the dialogue for everyone. lisa: especially because fed officials have come out and they want to see a trend. one report will not make or break what they look at. the fact that we have seen a trend changes the dial. the question is how are they going to respond and what is the response of markets? if they tighten sooner does that lead to higher yields? it is a question. tom: we will have to see. part of that will be moving to inflation tomorrow. does the horse and the cart

looking at the inflation study tomorrow. looking at what yields do. lisa: higher inflation could mean the fed starts to tighten sooner which could mean lower yields. it is enough to make your head spin. what is keeping yields this low. tom: the issue is how you do this and not make your head spin? i go back to what i mentioned first thing this morning. been laid learn -- ben laidler's note was the most optimistic since late 2018. esther: a lot of these companies have -- lisa: a lot of these companies have passed along the. people are wondering effect and continue. right now they are doing all right. tom: the euro a little bit weaker. the yield space, 1.32 on the 10 year. i'm looking at the 30 year bond,

1.96%. critically for me, the vix, 16.68. unchanged on the s&p, slightly green. little from the nasdaq as well. on "balance of power" from alaska, mike dunn woodley. ♪

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jonathan: equity markets unchanged. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. 30 minutes until the opening bell.

the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. another wave of supply constraints. >> supply constraints. >> supply bottlenecks. >> supply chain issues. >> they are not going to go away for a few more years. >> interest rates are tight. >> at the same time we have the emergence of the delta variant. >> the amount is not being satisfied. >> it is easy to see why prices are rising. >> the key point is that central