this degree of inflation. > the bond market here is strong, and rachel had higher when fed starts to taper. >> labor will be an issue not just for the fed before the economy. >> they will be taking those away. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is inflation day in america. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. tom: the word from me on the inflation report is grind, grind, grind. the dollar confirmed, the stronger dollar. jonathan: stte six straight days

the treasury down, tom, and where are we right now on a 10-year? that is quite a turnaround. tom: you know there is a low-yield camp, john, but i'm sorry, you have got to respect the grind, and the answer is, day after day, it is price-up. jonathan: and come alisa, we have that hot payrolls report. lisa: that has definitely been a trigger report on a real yield point. are they going to be more sponsor than perhaps people had previously expected, as we get one read after another of hot input. jonathan: annmarie hordern probably has not slept all night, watching the senate. what we call that, a voter rama. lisa: a vote-a-rama-

- jonathan: our correspondent in the back immediately emailed me and said "hahaha, yes, i am exhausted." [laughter] tom: didn't she want, like, a five-week recess? jonathan: yields up, and that gets your attention considering where we were one we could go, what a turnaround, six straight days of yields higher. euro-dollar down to 1.1711. lisa: we had some function on the federal reserve, very much in focus today. the analyst expectations on wall street has been coming down, as both you, jon, and tom have been highlighting the absolute level of yield has been going down. at 8:30 a.m. today, we will look

at u.s. cpi data. this may be the datapoint of the week. the expectation broadly among economists surveyed by bloomberg's consumer price increases, food expected to rise from last month. i am watching rights. how much are rents continuing to rise? how much pressure from the consumer spending capability? this could cap longer-term growth, especially if this pushes the federal reserve to act sooner. kansas city fed president esther george speaking. we already heard hawkish words, at least relatively less dovish words, to use your term, jon, from rafael bostic. we could start with a taper in a very near term. president biden will be taking a victory lap, the fact the democrats passed a three point

$5 trillion reconciliation bill yesterday. jon, what does that mean, though? now it has to go to the house to basically pass the framework. this does not actually go into law, what the letter of the law will become a whether this will go through, a big? nonetheless. build back better, especially after that inflation. jonathan: i imagine those words will be in there, lisa. supply coming through, 10-year note coming in later. 30-year later as well. an interesting day, tom, set up for this market. tom: an interesting day, and what will matter, jon, is the correlation. i'm sorry, equities are all behaved. john, i look at the real yield to get the 10-year real yield to look at a lesser -.99%. that would be a remark for the day. jonathan: that is a 20 basis

turnaround as well. 53 on the nasdaq 100. the nasdaq 100 about down .33%. let's turn things around with anthony crescenzi. tony, you called it preparing for a crescendo. what do you mean by that? anthony: i need to find a know that is transitory, closer to matching to my name. [laughter] jonathan: other than that? anthony: other than that, but a crescendo is probably a better word for musical band, course, the music keeps playing, so another other words, for inflation, it will peak in terms of its sound, the level, still might be high, and that might in nerve -- unnerved investors. that is why, as you all know, beta is important, whether the fed can gain control of the narrative, which it pretty much

did. tom: tony, you have pretty much taken over the mantle, and terms of writing a new book, "the city did bond investor," it is actually -- "the strategic bond investor," it is actually in english. you talk from tulips to treasuries. what is the narrative out there right now that is wrong? anthony: to use the 2010 analogy for today, if we primed what happened in 2010 through 2020, we would a all get it wrong. by "it," we probably mean the inflation rate, interest rate, and even the growth story. now, some of these stories will be bigger, for example, interest rates higher than the last decade, but that does not necessarily mean equities will be lower in the coming decade, because what we have seen as a

reboot of the 2020's, because of the covid crisis. if we look at may and june come up with the g7 meeting and the document written in cornwall, in england, where the g7 met, it is aimed at fostering better conditions for growth, in part, of course, to take on china, economically, which, by the way, is not such a scary thing. we think back in the cold war, 1945 to 1981, if the investors went into a cave, of course, which is a mistake, the global pie grew, and it made sense for investors to be invested. here, instead of an arms race, it is a tech race, and economic race, that the nations are coming together to win, and so we may have a much different story, and this $3.5 trillion bill that has been passed, along with a $1 trillion bill, is an effort that is consistent with the assessment to create more

connectedness, to make the economy is greener, and to be bigger economically. lisa: tony, the $3.5 trillion plan, a lot of analysts put it at a 50/50 at best. it may get past, the infrastructure, the bipartisan bill. if the $3.5 trillion plan does not get passed, do you still see higher yields in this cycle then we saw in previous cycles? anthony: we see it probably closer to $2 trillion, but there are upside risks to that. there likely will ba passage by the end of the year. it is an important part of the 2020 and occasion, because the r -- investment in people and things, those of the things that drive productivity. remember, it has been a one plus

a two, 1% increase in the amount of humans, 2% increase in how productive they were. it is now about half a percent, projected to be there for the next 20 years, according to the congressional budget office, the cbo. productivity running about 1.5 percent, which is slow, but to get that number higher, to make 20/20 a better story in terms of the growth picture, there need to be investments in people and in things, and ultimately the final word on this is what is the biggest driver of productivity and therefore growth is total factor productivity, a fancy way of saying how do we use things in place to produce things better and faster? that will be determined by the private sector primarily, but the government sector needs to be engaged. even in europe, in the same vein, so it is an important story that has development terms of the efforts to invest.

jonathan: tony, we are going to leave it there. it is good to catch up. anthony: thanks, jon, lisa, tom. jonathan: thank you very much. the range of estimates on a 10-year yield right now, we stand at 1.37 on 10. we have got citi up. tom: if you grind, jon, four or five more days of the grind, where does the micro market, all of a sudden, you will be near 150, you get tendency, and then you get out where the new levels offer some of the people coming in for my higher yield 90 days ago. jonathan: the fed funds remain too shallow. this is citi. "we struggle to see a scenario in which the fed remains dovish." what do you make of that? lisa: this is what people are starting to think about, because people are taking the federal reserve on their word that they will let the economy run very high. now it seems like the inflationary pressures will be

stag light or stagflationary, which is not what the fed wants to see. even though you and tom were talking about longer-term yields creeping higher and actually having the material to move, yield curves not steepening that much. i think that is really important to note, because it is also in the front and as people bring forward expectations for rate hikes. jonathan: hi yields, tom, earlier this morning, could have that note from the team hsbc, basically saying any fear of tapering will be offset by the treasury declining issuance. tom: i have never seen in my life, jon, a disparity between the economists on inflation and the public on inflation. it is grand canyon why. jonathan: i'm aware, tom. tom: dangerous. i could see you down there in one of those 19th-century boats. jonathan: higher by couple of basis points. it is going to be that kind of

morning, at about 830 eastern when we get some news. the inflation report in america just around the corner. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪ ritika with first word news, i am deaf. senate democrats -- ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. partyline vote was 50-49, and it marked a debate among democrats and moderates and progressives over the details. the first woman to be new york governor will have to clean up after her predecessor. today governor kathy hochul will be sworn in and about two weeks. she will face a pandemic on the budgetary crisis, and an economic recovery. governor andrew cuomo says he is stepping down because sexual

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vp harris: on this vote, the yeas are 69, the nays are 30.

the bill, as amended, is passed. senator schumer: today, we take the steps to revitalize america's infrastructure. >> there is a joke around town that infrastructure week has come and gone so many times that people are a little cynical when we talk about it. well, today is infrastructure day. jonathan: senator ron perlman there with senator chuck schumer , majority leader, and the vice president of the united states. from new york city this morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. yields are higher for a sick straight session come up to basis points. what a turnaround from a week ago, from 1.1258, all the way through 1.37 again this morning. crude intraday come of the chart looks like this, a little bit of

a drop off in the last couple of minutes. down to 67.55. reporting coming from cnbc that the white house will call on opec-plus to boost oil production. tom keene, does that sound like an administration that might be worried about higher gas prices, getting a bit too much? tom: yeah, as we saw with be tax a guesstimate on the infrastructure bill as well, annmarie hordern joins us right now. i want to link together two very important events. obviously one is where you point -- pulled your all-nighter, $3.1 trillion in a path forward to a biden new deal. at the same time, the gentleman from the southwest wisconsin come away from milwaukee, bordering iowa, illinois, minnesota, ron kind, the democrat, says he has had enough, he is a democrat in trump territory. can he get a 3.1 trillion dollar

deal to a high -- to a house where ron kind is exiting stage left? annmarie: representative ron kind saying he has run out of gas, tom, they have to do the $3.1 trillion package. they had a year to do it before the midterm. potentially, they are going to lose some heat, and this is why. you hear a lot of political pundits talk about the fact that there is a huge division in the democratic party, which is true. you do have a wide spectrum of moderate democrats and those in the progressive left, but do you think the democrats are going to wait this moment in time to get through the agenda items they all campaigned on, because they don't agree on some of the specifics or the top line number? we have to wait and see, but august, we happy house coming back. that is going to be critical. august 23. september is going to be the showdown. tom: september is the showdown. that is the calendar. the other calendar, i'm sorry come is going to be democrat retirement in trump districts,

just as a generalization as well. how does speaker pelosi react to that? is she going to do a john boehner redux? annmarie: [laughs] i think the backdoor deals between the left and the right of their party, to try to get the $3.5 trillion package done, because what happens in the midterms, and your point is correct, tom, if they lose their seats and they lose control, then we are with a divided government, and that will purge bidens economic agenda. jonathan:jonathan: 8:30 a.m., nothing else matters, inflation in america. annmarie, walk us through as we get reports this morning that the whitehead might lead on opec-plus -- white house might lead on opec-plus. annmarie: we did see one senator from utah in the middle of the night come in with some props, saying how does inflation affect you, and gasoline was alongside milk and bread, but we

have seen advisors get out ahead of this. there was a memo yesterday alongside of the passage of this bill in it chamber about the bipartisan info structure and looking ahead to the reconciliation package, saying to kind of ease concerns of democrats about inflation, saying that they do see it to be transitory, and that actually this type of spending can help some of those supply issues we are seeing, but they were sticking to the line, and they were even naming former treasury secretary larry summers, which we have seen republicans try to pass on the fact that he had been calling about high inflation, but they were saying that even he agrees this is an historic and needed funding. so we have seen the white house get ahead of it, because i have to say this is all republicans want to talk about. i have been speaking to senators yesterday, and this is what they bring back. every time you mentioned something, the debt ceiling, spending, they say how democrats can do this is reckless. lisa: trying to point the finger at opec rather than at u.s.

shale production, and i am wondering how much we can read into this at a time when the democrats are talking about trying to curb them of our carbon emissions. how much is the u.s. of administration actually increasingly willing to back further shale production at a time when there are these bills to try to get energy more prevalent? annmarie: it is an interesting line, a fine line they will have to walk, but i would say the shale industry on its own is holding back production. after what happened last year, the shale industry is ever so more focused on financials, dividends, buybacks, making sure they can keep shareholders on site instead of production. that is why you actually have russia as well shipping more to the united states terms of foreign buying. russia is coming in at number two now. they are concerned about oil prices. . the easiest thing they can do is give more balance to the market, and i would say that is a simple phone call to riyadh or abu dhabi. jonathan: a simple fix, annmarie , a simple phone call, a simple

fix? annmarie: it depends on what opec wants to do, but if you tell riyadh to open the tap or abu dhabi to put more oil into the market, or you get in iranian-jcpoa nuclear deal done, you will see an immediate bounds in the market. that will certainly correlate price. jonathan: it will be a little more difficult to execute at this point. annmarie hordern, great to catch up in our correspondent down in d.c. in a couple hours' time, we will have an inflation report in america, and lisa, almost immediately, that inflation report were filtered through this market, but down in d.c., it gets politicized really fast. lisa: all republicans want to talk about, it says a lot. this is the key argument against the $3.5 trillion spending plan, against some of the other initiatives that president biden is going to lay out. i think the idea of trying to pin this on oil is perhaps a bit narrow, because what we are looking at is pretty broad-based

price increases across the entirety of the economy, and, frankly, you can cater to the oil story, but it really goes to the supply chain issues, the fact that we have an increase in some of the delta variant prevalence around the globe. it is not going to end that quickly. jonathan: this is the issue, these are the words, tom, a higher inflation rate now, driven, laying the foundation for high prices in the future, shaping the so-called inflation process. are we starting to see that already? tom: i think we will see an analysis of the data here. three-month moving averages, jon, it is way overdone. i don't know what else to say, but the proseries, like leave in the, like dallas, great work over the years out of the kansas city fed, frankly, out of the university of michigan says everybody, calm down. jonathan: way to push back against that, tom. tom: i agree. jonathan: quite a list of economists there. tom: i am looking at cleveland, dallas, and powell mentioned

this to her three times ago. -- two or three times ago. they say what they say. jonathan: two hours and four minutes away from an inflation report in america. futures down about .1%. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ berg. ♪

jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, here is the price action, negative three on the s&p, down about .1%, negative .25% on the nasdaq. on the equity markets, nothing of the sword in the bond market over the past week. would a move we have seen last week. last wednesday morning at 1.1258. a bounce back on better-than-expected data. ism, better, payroll, better, and the fed really teamed up for a taper call, september. 1.37 right now, just below --

just reached 2% on a 30-year. hsbc pushing back. let me finish, tom, that is what happens in conversations. hsbc looking for that supply to the offset, because what we will see is a declining treasury supply. tom: right. jonathan: at with a report that opec-plus will come out and be asked by the administration to do something about oil production. tom, crude this morning, $57.43. tom: you mention something, jon, really important, and that this is not about inflation, it is about taper timing, and i am seeing some adjustments now for people pulling into december. i don't see september, but can we imagine the tapered dialogue come december? jonathan: september 3.

we have got another payrolls report to get through before we have got a clear runway, a clear path. tom: yeah, yeah. right now, one of the inventors of our front line -- advantages of our front-line houses here at bloomberg, of course j.p. morgan, we talked to bruce kasman, he is ok, but he gets to wake up every day and talk to jesse edgerton and peter mccoy with parts from m.i.t. in berkeley. that is pretty cool. they have a tour de force with cosman on brent -- kasman on rent. when you sit down with edgerton and mccoy, what did you learn about rent in america? bruce: well, i think the story there is an addition to the underlying pressure from the pandemic recovery, there is a relative mismatch in where the supply is, and that we should respect -- expect rental price inflation to be a pressure point for some time to come, even

after the temporary forces around the pandemic that began to fade. so there is a pressure here that goes well into 2022 and maybe even on inflation coming from rental price inflation. tom: on a trend basis, does that rental increase get us back beneath original trend, pre-pandemic trend? does it get us back on trend, or do edgerton and mccoy say we extend out to a new higher level of rent game? bruce: i think that is up for debate, but the fed continuing for fiscal policy support coming in with the fundamental to the housing market, all positive. i think we will see rental price inflation shift up, and that is a broader shift to core inflation, not to lose sight, which you are seeing in today's number, in terms of u.s. inflation above 5%, that is temporary. it is not the trajectory. we don't want to get alarmist

here, but there is an underlying shift. the cycle is different, policy response is different. lisa: bruce, from rent to gas, the price of food, the question has always been -- are we going to see a broadening out in these price increases? they had been concentrated in the pandemic-related sector. here we are, in a new economy, how much are we starting to see those price pressures? bruce: well,, i think we should understand that the pandemic story incorporates the broadening. a lot of the pressure we saw in the first half of the year were in goods, and autos, some places where supply chains were constrained, but part of the pandemic story is it hit the services prices, not just specific to travel and entertainment come about, more broadly, housing being one of them. i think what we will start to see in this and for the next two months is that broadening the service price normalization. that is the factor. it is not the same story is what we were talking about a minute

ago, that we have got a different cycle, a different fed , and some of those pandemics, temporary forces say there is still an underlying trajectory of my inflation that we will be watching here over the next two years. lisa: when do we stop talking about transitory come apart from just not liking the word? i do hear moving from a more sustained price increase, what is the determining factor that you are looking at? bruce: i think that is a hard question to answer, because, you know, when we moved from a rate of inflation that is running now over five do something that will be, i think, in the mid to high 2's, that is a significant deceleration as we go through next year. however, a mid to high 2 is almost a percentage higher than where we have been the last 10 to 15 years. the discussion here is complicated, because there is a big transitory story, but there is still a fundamental story underneath the surface, which i think will come through in a world where inflation will be quite noisy in introductory. tom: bruce, the equity troops,

the bull market troops believe this will continue, in the underpinning is what i will call it robust trend of nominal gdp. we can argue all day what inflation -- about what inflation adjusted gdp is going to do. do you have a sense of gloom of an american economy that is going to stop, or are corporations, can they be optimistic about what is going to be out there at the top line? bruce: well, i think the question he revolves around two things. one is there is scarring as a result of the pandemic, and even if we are right that we are going to save the delta variant drag, and we are going to come out of this a more normal world, is there some imbalance in the world? i do not think it is in the u.s. -- that creates a problem like we have in the end sovereign crisis in the lifecycle -- last cycle. that is not our call, but it is something to watch out for. the other thing is the

reflationary trajectory. i do not think the fed has deep enough powers. i do not think u.s. inflation will start show signs of 3.5%. i do not think that will happen for at least 2, 3 years for now -- from now. strong growth and rising inflation, although much more moderately. tom: well, to what i have been talking about this morning, bruce kasman, whether it is dallas or cleveland cpi, there are 47 other flavors of adjusted inflation. is powell, in his press conference, going to lean over to the former dean of columbia economics, richard clarida., and say -- which of these series do i use? that is the traditional mode, isn't it? bruce: what they will continue to hit is two basis points. one, they see the inflation of this year is having a big transitory inverter -- transitory element, but at the same time, they say look, we do understand we are wrong.

if inflation does pick up in a more sustained way, we will respond to that. it is the issue about -- where does that shift take place? i do think the fed has a lot of tolerance for letting core inflation. by the way, tom, we had 54 4% and employment rate last friday. that 5.4% on employment rate last friday. to talk about the fed staying on hold here for another 18 months or so is an unusually different reaction function from what we have seen in the past. lisa: bruce, how much are you counting on president biden's build back better, build back better, bill beck america plan, the $3.5 trillion plan, the outline that did move through the senate last night? bruce: well, it is hard to put a very competent forecast on this. basically, we are basically looking for about 200 billion dollars net stimulus last year, the inference package budget is

half of that. but if i put in most of the $3.5 trillion, i would obviously be getting bigger numbers than that, so we are clearly looking for things to get shaved down, but we have more stimulus without being very precise on where comes from in next year's timeline. jonathan: bruce kasman, jp morgan chief economist and head of global research. i think this is important. lower participation for longer and a stronger job growth mean the economy could reach the economy benchmark earlier than we anticipated. morgan stanley looking at 3.3% by year-end next year on unemployment. the risks around us, they go on to say, if we do not get a labor supply, this could really constitute what the fed constitutes as maximum employment. some say that is a recipe for issues with policy. tom: you hear the phrase nairo,

we will blame ned phelps of columbia for that. jon, i am sorry, the calculation they were talking about is hyper complex. we don't know other than their peers to be a massive gap between "we need to hire today," and the millions of people they cannot use. jonathan: the answer in the last cycle is lower. this time around, i don't know where it is, they assume it is lower, much lower. tom: i think some of these gradations get back to february, pre-pandemic, but otherwise, what is the new territory we are heading to? we just don't know. jonathan: lisa, this will have huge consequences for labor policies. it builds back your participation rate call. that is going to be the corbett through next year, and i think it is difficult to do that. lisa: we talk about policy implications, the federal reserve, how they review how

much slack remains in the labor market at a time when there are more than 10 million job openings in the united states, as of the month of july, as well as the federal government. why is participation rate going down to such a degree? is a retirement? is it people who do not have the skills? these are policy questions that have to do with congress. jonathan: they will be important to this market, that is for sure. the inflation report coming out of 8:30 eastern time, a huge turn the treasury market. yields with a 1.12 handle last week, now 1.37. your equity market down 3, negative 2 on the s&p 500, down by 0.06%, and in the commodity market, crude is $67.70, a really rough, tough week last week, this morning, down .9%. this is bloomberg. ♪ oomberg. ♪ ritika: 21st word news, i am

--with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. senate democrats have passed a $3.5 trillion budget framework. that opens the way for president biden's economic agenda. the blueprint also includes what the democrats call the biggest tax cut ever. now there will be months of wrangling about the details of the plan. angela merkel increasing pressure on presidents to get -- residents to get vaccinated. they are expanding testing requirements and nonvaccinated people, and those tests will no longer be free. merkel trying to avoid another lockdown that more strain on the economy. in canada, while way'chief financial -- huawei's chief financial officer rejects an x tradition request. encouraging improper demands by u.s. authorities.

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jonathan: live from new york city, for our audiences worldwide, futures lower by 3, down by about 1%. into the market where yields are higher come about to basis points, getting cpi at 8:30, tom. tom: jon, thank you so much. we have been covering china, hong kong, the last 12 or so months. no one has covered it better than our stephen engle. he is in with importance of earnings on hkex. now he is more on their ceo, formerly with jp morgan. stephen, good morning. stephen: good morning, tom, and of course, our guess is here, -- guest is here, nicolas aguzin, but now since may 20 fourth or

there about, he has been the ceo of the hong kong exchange. obviously much of your time since you took over as the ceo here has been consumed by the regulatory changes and the turmoil on the markets here and the selloff in many of the platform companies. how are you, as the ceo of the market here, going to weather the storm, because we do not know how deep and how long the market can last? nicolas: thank you. great to be here. it has been a great day for us, because we have announced results, which is record-breaking profits, revenues as well, so lots of good things. as to the regulatory environment, which is, like, your first question, this is happening all around the world. we see a lot of antitrust regulations being implement it on big tech. it is happening in europe. the chinese authorities are in the long march to see how they are going to regulate this part of the industry, which is the

new economy. different experiences around the world. they are doing it in their own way and trying to adjust to what is the right way to regulate this, so this will take some time to trickle down to the system. stephen: we cannot downplay the significance of it. when you look at the weight of the hang seng index, alibaba was number one with about 10%. three of the top big companies that are under direct regulatory scrutiny right now, about 23% of the market weighting of the hang seng index, so there's so much pressure internationally as well -- do we stay in, do we pull out -- that is the question a lot of international investors have right now. you talk about these challenges in your earnings report today. nicolas: yes, absolutely. we have not seen the volume decreased. volumes have been pretty constant. there is continued activity. i do believe the weight can be an impact. we will have to see how this

impact will go through, but we are seeing a similar type of modifications to how big tech works all around the world. all platform businesses are being scrutinized, how they use their data, how they manage formation about their clients, do they have to much power, how are they going to manage how they deal with the public? i do not see it is too different from what we are seeing in other places. it may be, perhaps in its own way, in sectors like education, it may be that we do not see too much in other places, but if you look at big companies commit is very similar. stephen: how is it impacted the ipo pipeline? because they were down, what was a blistering first quarter. nicolas: that is correct. if we look at the first six months, 46 ipo's, that is double what it was in the first six of last year. it slowed down a bit on the second quarter. the pipeline is actually at record levels. i mean, if we look at how many

companies have actually filed and are being analyzed, we have around 200 companies, so that is a very significant pipeline. stephen: but is tech holding off right now? there have been reports that bytedance is going to go ahead, despite regulatory scrutiny. nicolas: first of all, the first six month of the companies listed, that i mentioned, 92% were tech companies. the companies will of course assess the market, whether they are too volatile to go, but there are companies listing -- a listing ceremony that we had tomorrow, we have one next -- have tomorrow, we had one last week. the economy has slowed down. the pipeline remains very strong, and we have more and more companies that are inquiring about doing an ipo in hong kong, possibly companies that were perhaps analyzing other markets, and now they are asking a lot of questions about

hong kong. stephen: how are you going to put your personal stamp on this role come at a time, of course, of great volatility? there is talk that the financial secretary told me, broke news with me that he was going to welcome spac's. the framework agreement, is it almost ready? nicolas: spac is one of the products that has been discussed for some time. there is a consultation that is going to be launched from me over the next few weeks. post that consultation, depending on what the output of that consultation is, we've set up the right framework. there are conversations that are ongoing between the securities, regulators, and ourselves and the government, and we are trying to make a framework of an instrument that is actually a high-quality instrument. we want to give opportunities to investors, but we have an obligation also to protect investors' interests. stephen: do you see a decoupling

with hong kong, because of regulatory scrutiny in china, a decoupling between the s&p and of course the hang seng index? nicolas:nicolas: so if i look at the data, i do not see any possible decoupling in the sense that we are seeing more international investors participating in the market. i mean, if i give you a little bit of the historical framework of -- you look at 2019, when there was $89 billion on average every day, then going up to $180 billion, and right now, i mean, 180 eight dollars billion, it is almost double. it is very -- $188 billion, it is almost double. stephen: how are you going to increase data revenue? you want to obviously increase data revenue come at a time when we do not have a grip on data. nicolas: this is data that we have, that we have to try to use it in as efficient a way as

possible. so if you look at the averages for other exchanges around the world, it is a higher number. what we have to do is make sure -- are we doing all the things we can with the data, in terms of commercializing, with our participants, with our investor community? and that is what it is. it is a little bit different data than the one. stephen: nicolas aguzin, thank you so much, ceo of the hong kong exchange. jonathan: stephen engle, thank you so much. the ipo pipeline is at record levels. where do you think some of that traffic is coming from, and where was i going previously? tom: i think it is hugely dynamic right now, and anyone predicting hong kong 12 months, not a clue. jonathan: lisa, have you got a clue? lisa: well, it seems like some of the ipo's would come to new york. how much can they capitalize

going to mainland china? a really important thing to watch. jonathan: very interesting going into the new year. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we are down 0.06% on the s&p 500. going into inflation numbers, one hour and 35 minutes away. ♪

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♪ >> moment, the market -- at the moment, the market is still digesting negative news around covid. >> the bond market is wrong that rates are going to be headed higher when the fed starts to taper. >> labor is going to be an issue not just for the economy, but for the fed. >> it is really hard to take those away. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the inflation report 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down two, -0.05%. tom: a lot of houses doing a lot of good work. i mentioned jp morgan in the lastou