>> we are going to get pretty worried about inflation, and that could finally bring a stock market correction at some point. >> we agree with the fed when they say this is largely transitory. >> we don't think the fed is still bothered by this degree of inflation. >> what they should be doing is getting ready to raise interest rates. >> the cycle is different. policy responses are different. we will get different inflation outcomes over the next two or three years. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: coming into thursday at record highs. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. . your equity market up three on the s&p 500. in the next 60 minutes, two of the biggest bulls on the street, 4700 at goldman year end, 5000

for ed yardeni next year. tom: jon, the equity market rationalization right now, the narratives about it, the gloom of the friday research note in these rare notes of optimism, it's got to be studied. jonathan: ben laidler in the previous hour as bullish as ever. he thinks the reopening trade hasn't even started yet. tom: really important point, as each bull has a different way of approaching this. it is not a uniform call. jonathan: we like balance on this program. here's lisa. [laughter] lisa: i do think that the key distinction between the bulls and the bears right now is margin pressures, how much companies can adapt to higher cost. you have the likes of ben laidler coming out and saying it is not going to be transitory, were you -- transitory, whereas

you have others saying this is going to be a problem. jonathan: you are right to frame the debate. let's run with the morgan stanley call of mike wilson. is it the labor pressure that is going to push the dial? lisa: that is the key question. if it is the labor pressure, it might be bad for the stock market, but good for the economy , because then people's wages can keep up with higher prices. if it is not, that might be good for the stock market and less good for the economy. jonathan: some labor market data a little bit later this mornings. jobless claims just around the corner. your equity market looks like this on the s&p 500. record high after record high. who's been counting? i think it is 46 year to date, according to kailey leinz. 46 all-time highs on the s&p 500 so far in 2021. up three on the s&p 500. yields advanta and -- yields

advancing up couple basis points. your 10 year yield, 1.3539%. lisa: interesting after that 10 year option yesterday. how often are you saying, "coming into monday, record highs," etc. that has very much been the story of 2021. at 8:30 am, u.s. initial jobless claims. also, the u.s. july ppi. this is an index of inflationary pressures for factories, for manufacturers. how indicative will that be of some of the supply chain constraints that really is one of the driving features behind the divergent call in the u.s. equity market? 9:45 a.m., how do inflationary pressures affect consumer sentiment? at 1:00 p.m., following yesterday's very strong auction, we get 30 year bonds. is there the same demand at this ultra high yield of 2%? jonathan: thank you very much.

we joke about lisa's bearish contribution to this program, but it is important to frame where we are. not everybody is bullish. in fact, the last time we put together all of the surveys on wall street, 4300 with the year-end forecast on the 500 you still have bank of america at 3800 on the s&p. you still got morgan stanley south of 4000 on the. then you've got the bulls come the likes of goldman. tom: the dispersion is there. i'm going to go to the way it is constructed by each of the bulls. it is very nuanced now between revenue growth, between the leverage that comes down to the different lines on the income statement, and down to free cash flow. everybody's got a different view. jonathan: let's get one view right now with ed yardeni, yardeni research chief investment strategist.

through the framework for you. ed -- walk us through the framework for you. ed: all you have to do is get pe and e right. the trick is getting them right. the challenge ahead is the valuation is already quite elevated. it has been earnings driven bull market. we had a melt up really since march 23 of last year, and initially that melt up was led by the pe. forward pe went from 12.9 to 23 by september of last year. since may of last year, earnings have been on fire. they are going to be up 80% just in the second quarter. i think the market is going higher, and my bullishness is based on my perception that there's no recession ahead, no credit crunch ahead, and there are still higher earnings ahead.

tom: when you took your phd at yale university with a privileged faculty of the time in 1976, the dow migrated from 1000 out to where we are now at 36,000. on the way was a carter malaise. from 1976 to roughly 1982, there was just a flatness. is the thing we are not seeing here the up-and-down of the financial media, but the ability to just go flat and rest for a while? ed: i think the huge story when you compare the 1970's, which was called the great inflation era, and what i think is the roaring 20 20's right now, is productivity. productivity collapsed in the 1970's. this time around, productivity is up, from 0.6% on a 20 quarter basis. that is where it was not too long ago at the end of 2015.

right now it is up 2%. i think it is going to 4%. tom: greg grandon at yale university calls it the dismal 1970's. i don't hear that right now. lisa: no, some people might saying we got get some sort of inflationary pressures that resembles something last seen in the making 70's. how much is your call predicated on treasury yields remaining where they are or around there? ed: i have to say that this year has been a tricky one for forecasting the bond market. i wasn't surprised that it went to 1.7% back in march. i was surprised that it went back to 1.1 percent recently. now i am not surprised it is heading back up to 1.35%. i think we could be at 2% by the

end of this year or sometime next year, and that would be a clear sign that the economy is getting a little closer to normal that it has been for quite some time. that could weigh on the valuation multiple, i suppose. but 5000 is actually a fairly conservative outlook. at the end of next year, there's plenty of times for earnings to grow along that time, and by the end of next year, the market is going to be really discounting 2023. i know it is weird to be talking that far out, but that is what the market does. i've got earnings of $205 this year for the s&p 500, next year $215, and in 2013, it could be up to $240. i think on your point, private margins are going to hold up surprisingly well because of the productivity story. jonathan: the story comes down to the second point, and that is the multiple. if we want to talk about 2023,

we will be talking about rate hikes. can we trade positively through tapering even the amount of stimulus we've had from the federal reserve? ed: these tapering talks have been around for some time. it is not like a surprise. this one certainly isn't. as a matter fact, everybody is kind of wondering why they haven't started already given some of the akamai data we've had. so i think the market is going to handle tapering just fine. what they don't really appreciate is today is $5 trillion higher than before the pandemic. there's just a tremendous a month of liquidity just sitting there. people look at velocity. i look at the other side of velocity. you take into divided by nominal gdp -- you take m2 divided by

nominal gdp, it is all most a record high. so there's pent-up supply of liquidity. jonathan: still bullish. ed yardeni, good to catch up. in the next hour, we will catch up with another big equity market bill, david kostin at goldman sachs, the chief u.s. equity strategist. making headlines the last couple of weeks for a 4700 view on the s&p. tom: good morning to douglas cass watching in florida. thrilled he could watch and listen to us this morning. he really takes issue with the ratios, the valuations, as dr. yardeni mentioned early in the conversation. . jonathan: the bulls talking about the earnings. that was the really interesting report this week from credit suisse. looking for 5000 next year. they expect we are just really bullish on earnings in america. tom: do your point about the

earnings buildup, all of that gets recalibrated along the way. . what do we see when we get earnings season next time around to readjust? jonathan: we are just trying to get an idea of how everyone feels on wall street. going to morgan stanley, the question goes into earnings season. lisa: kenny momentum keep up to keep the earnings going? jonathan: it feels like a hot labor market. here's your price action in the equity market. up two on the s&p 500. yields higher now by two or three basis points to 1.3573%. from new york come on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word

news, i'm ritika gupta. the international energy agency cut forecasts for global to -- global oil demand sharply for the rest of this year. that is quite a reversal. just a month ago, the iea warned of a damaging spike in prices. in its monthly report, the output boost is colliding with production from outside of the alliance. u.s. drug regulators set to approve a third dose of coronavirus vaccine for people with weaker immune systems. adults will no longer be required to self to light -- self-isolate and u.k. if they come into contact with a covid case. in china, authorities releasing

a five-year blueprint calling for greater regulation in vast parts of the economy. that has provided a sweeping framework for a crackdown on key industries that has left investors reeling. and it is a big boost for boeing. bloomberg has learned that india is set to allow 737 flights to resume in the coming days. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ pres. biden: if the primary

concern right now is the cost of living, you should support this plan, because a vote against this plan is a vote against lowering the cost of health care, housing, childcare, eldercare, and prescription drugs for american families. jonathan: that is the pitch from the president of the united states. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this thursday morning, here is your price action on the 500. firmer on the s&p by three points, up almost 0.1%. the last two days, the nasdaq underperformance in small caps. they wrestle outperforming. is that trade starting to kick in once again -- the russell outperforming. is that trade starting to kick in once again? we are one hour and 12 minutes away from jobless claims data in america. tom: i think the claims data is more important may be. i muscled looking at they redo because the redo on the jobs report was important. i would suggest the revision on claims could be important.

jonathan: decent revisions on friday, that is for sure. tom: right now is jack fitzpatrick, we are going to look at the big picture in washington, but we are going to go granular to do it. what i find fascinating are the individual stories. stephanie murphy was mentioned by annmarie hordern this morning as part of the blue dog coalition. at six months old, she was rescued at sea by the united states navy as she escaped to vietnam with her family. she holds court north of orlando, and she won by 55% of the vote last time around. she is scared stiff. how does speaker pelosi help stephanie murphy of the seventh district in florida keep her job? jack: well, one, stephanie murphy and the other blue dog's interests in the house are not happy with the decision by speaker pelosi to hold onto this infrastructure bill and say we are not going to pass this until

we also get the $3.5 trillion measure that the senate wants to push forward. she could tell people -- she could help people like stephanie murphy by allowing a vote on the infrastructure measure, but that would imperil the next big ill. it doesn't somewhat that is going to happen. keep in mind, stephanie murphy is a good person to have an ion. -- have on -- have and eye on. scared stiff could be one way of looking at. emphasis is another. she could have a look at some statewide races. so far, speaker pelosi is not on their side, and she wants for nothing. tom: unfair question thursday, jack, so just go with it here. what is the power of the liberals right now? jack: sam: the power of the

liberals is on the front-end -- jack: the power of the liberals is on the front end. tom: stop, what is the difference between a progressive and a liberal? help me. jack: one, the progressives don't want to be called liberals, so it has turned into a whole discussion over what the difference is exactly. it would be an overstatement to say that the militant wing of the democratic party, but the word liberal does not appeal to the sanders wing as much as progressive. bigger spending, more government influence in the economy certainly than the centrists want. to your question, their influence is on the front end. the proposals that have come out for this large $3.5 trillion measure really were influenced

heavily by bernie sanders, the budget chairman now, and it is probably going to be pared down by the moderates. so yes, joe manchin, kyrsten sinema have a lot of influence from here on out, but in crafting the legislative push that president biden has gotten behind, the left wing of the democratic party has created the frame of debate in washington. lisa: tom is right to ask this question, especially in light of this dual pathway, the idea of the $550 billion plan and the 3.5 trillion dollar plan. given the power of the progressives, how likely is it that a $550 billion bipartisan bill gets passed without it being tied to a highly contentious and yet to be hashed out infrastructure bill regarding the human nature? jack: i think at this point, not likely. the speaker of the house, who obviously is in the mainstream of the democratic already,

whether you want to call it liberal or progressive or whatever, has said one is not moving without the other. keep in mind the question on the $3.5 trillion measure is not really a binary question. this could be cut down. it seems likely it will be cut down because in the senate, kyrsten sinema has said she doesn't like that topline number of $3.5 trillion. so it is not at this point a yes or no vote on a $3.5 trillion measure. it probably will end up being ambitious, but there's very much the option to scale this down and have a conversation about how much do we really want to pay for, how much do we really want to raise the corporate tax rate, how much do we really want to spend. those questions still haven't been answered, so something could pass even if it is not a bill as large as $3.5 trillion. jonathan: great work, as always. tk, i know exactly where you are

going. these margins are so small down in washington in both the house and the senate, and they are doing such huge things with such tiny margins. let's go back to georgia. georgia has proved to be the difference between trillions in spending and hardly anything. you just wonder what the feedback, the blowback is going to be next year. tom: i don't know what it is like in the united kingdom. frankly, i get the feeling that in france, the focus is on a few people. jonathan: focus way too much on the extreme. alexandria alexandria ocasio-cortez, way too much focus on that. that is not a reflection of the country. tom: you've never been to disney world, right? jonathan: disneyland paris, tom. not disney world. tom: i went to disney world to give a speech with ian bremmer

at orlando, and there were crocodiles on the highway. i'm never going back again. jonathan: is there a reason you brought it up? tom: stephanie murphy is down in orlando, and those kind of stories matter. lisa: i think this actually goes to the heart of why president biden was talking about gas prices, why he was talking about inflation. because right now he is trying to cater to the population of the united states to get them behind some of these politicians that might otherwise face some opposition to engaging with a 3.5 trillion dollar plan. this is a pr move that is being centered by president biden, but has to come with each constituency. jonathan: it is quite a line for a pr move. if your primary concern is the cost of living, you should support this plan, not oppose it. you just wonder if that resonates. lisa: how much can you convince people that their wages will go up more than the prices they feel at the gas station in the grocery store? jonathan: we will catch up with robin hayes, the jetblue ceo, and my good friend and colleague guy johnson is going to be sitting down with him at london

heathrow, as jetblue begins to travel from new york to london. if you are british, you can fly from london to new york. we are trying to get our heads around that. we will try and work that out, tom. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, on radio and tv, an important conversation coming up. here's the price action in the equity market. futures this morning positive on the s&p 500 i 0.05%. a bit of a snooze in the equity market. all-time highs into thursday. yields higher by a couple of basis points. 1.3556% on the 10 year. here's romaine. romaine: a real simply good day for the spac king. two of his companies and the dues -- companies in the news right now. $1.2 billion in revenue for the recent quarter. guiding to about $1.9 billion for the current quarter. clover health shares up about 16%. they gave guidance that was

really impressive, $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion on an annual basis. the street was looking for about $800 million. that is about 80% above street estimates. sonos up 12%. they do something a lot of consumer product companies haven't really done in the most recent couple of quarters, and that is gross margin expansion. the company moving more towards direct to consumer models that help to control costs. micron technology moving lower for a fourth straight day. downgrades coming down the pike, including morgan stanley, sank some of those chips boarded is -- chip shortages may be abating here, and the supply/demand dynamic may be moving back in favor of the customers. yesterday i brought up the airlines. southwest came out with that warning in regards to bookings, saying bookings have started to slow. that prompted a flurry of sell side analyst recommendations, basically saying the other airlines would have to follow suit.

investors bought into that dip. even though the shares are lower than the premarket, it ended up rallying to the close. all of the other airline stocks across the board also rally. the general consensus right now is that some of these short-term pickups are just that, short-term pickups, and the longer-term trajectory of getting these companies back to the 2019 pre-pandemic travel level, that narrative is still intact. jonathan: thank you. just a willingness to keep looking through at pf romaine bostick -- looking through it. remain bostick a little -- romaine bostick a little later on on "the close." let's go to london heathrow airport. bloomberg's guy johnson sitting down with robin hayes, jetblue ceo. guy: it is a critical moment on this north atlantic route that everybody is going to be watching so carefully. in some ways, it is a strange time to be launching a transit lentic service, isn't it? you can fly from --

transatlantic service, isn't it? you can fly from the u.s. to europe. you can't fly the other way around. maybe there is some method to the madness we are seeing from jetblue. it's ceo here, robin hayes. great to see you. how was the flight? robin: the flight was great. we left early and got here early, and we had a wonderful trip over. tom: no stacking --guy: no stacking over he screw -- over heathrow, which used to be something of an experience. let's talk a little bit about heathrow. this is a tough airport to get into, to get slots at. you've got a temporary slot allowance here. other carriers obviously aren't using them. how easy is it going to be to make that permanent? are you going to be able to make heathrow your permanent home? robin: we are so happy to be at

heathrow. we don't have any plans to leave heathrow. you're right, it is not going to be easy, but we thing we have a path that will allow us to stay here. if you look at what's happened with the fed before jetblue started this rub and what's happened now, did you ever think you would see our competitors offer business class under $2000 between jfk and heathrow? and it is not covid because these fares were even higher during the covid period. we have to be able to stay at heathrow. guy: you are already having an effect, but you think if you can stay here, those fares will be permanently lower. robin: we are going to keep the fares low. what we have seen every time jetblue has come onto a market, there's a phrase called the jetblue effect. when jetblue comes on the market, fares stay low permanently. we saw it on jfk-lax back in

2014. fares are still half now in business class than they were pre-2014, seven years later. guy: i can't fly the other way. when is that going to change? you can now fly into the u.k. from the united states. what about some reciprocity? robin: the opening up by the u.k. government was terrific. the day that was announced, we saw our daily new bookings triple between jfk and heathrow. so that was great. as a u.s.-based carrier, most of what we are going to sell is going to be in the u.s., so that was great for jetblue. the u.s. should open up. there is no reason not to. you can fly from countries that have much higher covid infection rates, but you can't come from countries in europe where infection rates are much lower. that is not a risk-based approach. when is it going to up? i couldn't tell you. it is something we other

airlines continue a dialogue on with the administration. tom: by christmas --guy: by christmas? robin: hopefully even sooner than that. it appends on how they are thinking about it. guy: you have flown here on a narrowbody aircraft. normally you fly across the atlantic on a wide-body. you're pushing that aircraft pretty hard. in the middle of summer -- i know it doesn't feel like the middle of summer in london today, but in the middle of summer, the aircraft is well within its operating mats. in the winter -- operating limits. in the winter, with headwinds, with a be pushed pretty hard? robin: we actually have a mid heavy cabin. we don't have that many total customers on board because of that. it is going to help keep the airplane lighter. when we set this out, we need to make sure that in the winter, when you are facing those headwinds, as you say, we weren't going to be diverting airplanes for fuel.

that is not something we see happening. xlr would give us a bit more range, and we will use that to push into some other cities, especially in southern europe. guy: what is next for london? robin: london is going to keep us busy for a while. it is a huge premium market, as you know. i think our impact of lowering fares is going to stimulate a lot of demand. we will look at other markets. paris is obviously of great interest to us, as are some of the regional u.k. markets in the summer. guy: you are incredibly well-known in the united states. you are not well known here. you're going to be putting a lot of flights on now. you will sort of downgrade that as we go into september. when do we see a big marketing push? when you push these routes really hard? when do we see a lot of spend to try to raise awareness? i've already had the conversation with people over here, jetblue, that is like

easyjet, isn't it? it's not. robin: that is going to take time. it is going to take restrictions being lifted by the u.s. government. to me, that feels like the right time for us to start expanding out our marketing efforts here in the u.k. guy: let's talk about what is happening stateside. eltel is obviously making its presence felt in a very significant way. are you anticipating that that is going to have a near-term impact in terms of things? and just trying to get a gauge of what you are seeing on the ground on a daily basis. robin: certainly over the last couple of weeks, as we have seen the delta variant go up, it is something that we have started to see an impact on. i did actually say in our earnings call at the end of july that i was cautious about september for that very reason, so right now it is playing out

pretty much as we expected. but as case counts continue to rise, you get more customers wanting refunds, more people holding off bookings. what i would say is this is going to be a fairly short-term peak. if you look at how the delta variant has come through the u.k. and other countries, it is already a six to eight week peak, and there's no reason to assume that is going to be in the different -- going to be different in the u.s.. guy: southwest making that point yesterday. in terms of what is happening, and terms of the way you are operating the business at the moment, as delta rises, are you going to rethink staff policies surrounding vaccination? what is your current thinking around that? in terms of masking, how are you changing the way you are operating the business because of it? robin: we've been in this covid world for 18 months now. we, like other lines, have developed great procedures, safety always front of mine. we had a federal mass mandate anyways in the u.s. through the

middle of september. my expectation is that could get extended if case counts stay high. don't know yet. that applies to airports come on board airplanes. we've had really good take up with vaccinations from our crewmembers, and right now we are still in the mode of encouraging people to get vaccinated. guy: are you rethinking that? i've talked to a number of ceos in the airline and travel sector more broadly that are all reviewing what their policies are at the moment. work from home, vaccination. is this stuff influx at the moment? -- stuff in flux at the moment? robin: of course, that is stuff that we continue to review. my view is for vaccination, it is better if people want to be vaccinated. so trying to continue to encourage them. hopefully in the u.s., we will get news soon that the vaccines have been approved. at the moment they are emergency use authorization.

i think a lot of people are going to get vaccinated once this vaccine is approved. obviously, that is where we are focused right now. yes, we are going to continue to think about should we mandate, should we offer other forms of testing exemption, but right now we are focused on encouraging people to get vaccinated. guy: any sense at the moment that you are experiencing a staff shortage, a skill shortage? do you look at what is happening more broadly in the labor market and say i have to start paying my people more? robin: jetblue didn't follow anybody during -- didn't furlough anybody during covid. we have never furloughed anyone in our 21 year history. we had most of our people there, ready to come back. some decided to voluntarily leave. we have been hiring like crazy. we are hiring 4000 people this year. we are not seeing any challenges ourselves. where we have seen some challenges is some of our

business partners, some of our companies, catering companies, they have had challenges. we definitely felt the impact of that. guy: jon wants to know if you are going to roll over his mosaic. robin: it would more flying -- do a bit more flying. guy: robin hayes, always a pleasure. so much. jonathan: guy johnson of bloomberg alongside robin hayes of jetblue. not the answer i wanted because i can't tap into that london-new york corridor in the same way you can. it is not talked about much in this country, but this had still has a travel ban, and they refused to engage with the europeans to engage on a reciprocal arrangement for travel. tom: just in the last couple of days, the same silliness is reciprocated. i want to go back to your outrageously rude interview with the secretary of transportation and number of weeks ago, where your substance was dead on. what is the theory?

i haven't seen a cogent theory of why we are doing this, why we are not reciprocating, other than a traditional american dissidents -- american dissidents, i guess, with foreigners. jonathan: this comes down to the oval office and the president of the united states. they might not talk about the delta variant, but that arrived even with the travel ban, so clearly that didn't work. tom: it is uniquely american. that is how i am going to put it. jonathan: i am not going to comment this time is around. i think every buddy knows my thoughts on this. futures up three on the s&p. tom: watch "ted lasso." jonathan: on radio come on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> the economy is recovering very strongly. fastest quarterly growth in the g7 group of countries, and

evidence that our plan for jobs is working. but i am not complacent. the shocks that our economy and public finances have experienced is significant, and it will take us time to fully recover. jonathan: that was rishi sunak, the u.k. chancellor for the exchequer. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market this thursday morning shaping up as follows. record highs into thursday. your s&p 500 positive by 0.05%. next up for this market, 42 minutes away, the jobless claims in america. yields higher going into that, 1.3536%. yields up by a little more than two basis points today. tom: 30 year bond just over 2%. this is joy. part of david wilson's expertise in his book is a huge respect for at least studying what was canon and the old days, going back to richard russell and a guy named joseph granville.

no one cares anymore except dave wilson. dave: i wouldn't go that far. i am sure that liz ann sonders cares over at charles schwab because today's chart is a version of one she had out yesterday. looking at the s&p 500, which is just setting record after record, relative to a cumulative ad line, for stocks listed on the new york stock exchange. the stoxx is important because you can do the same thing with n.y.c. securities, which -- with in why is he securities -- the stocks is important because you can do the same thing with nyse securities. it has been falling a bit since then. even though it has come back lately, we are talking about period since june 8 when the s&p 500 has set records 20 times,

with the latest one yesterday. so the concern here is that there is a bit of a divergence going on that perhaps signals that the strength we are seeing in the s&p 500 is not necessarily all it is cracked up to be. tom: what is the distinction between the two indices, the two sets of stocks? is it weak financials, or one has a -- one has apple and the other doesn't? dave: that is certainly an explanation. beyond that, you are talking about a lot of older companies. tom: the stocks richard russell new. dave: exactly. we have seen investors go back to their previous favorites in big and elsewhere. lisa: just as the traditional canaries in the coal mine still

work in the area of q re-in such low rates -- of qe and such low rates. dave: that is the question. you can actually stand the s&p 500 on its head and look at what is called a reverse version of the index. it gives the most weight to the smallest companies. we are seeing that indicator set records as well. so you do have to wonder because you think about it, the smaller companies may well be bigger beneficiaries of what is going on in terms of government spending at this point. so it does kind of raise the question at least about what the broader market indicators are really telling us here. lisa: a theme over the past few weeks has been revisions upward to s&p forecasts for year end and into 2022. we were already speaking from david toft and from goldman sachs, who joined the train of upgrades. is that normal now? for analysts who have yet to come out with public calls, is this the question, we haven't

gone high enough? or is there continuing to be this bearish overhang of concern among a lot of analysts? dave: there's a certain amount of concern, no question. but the really interesting part to me of seeing all these forecasts is you don't tend to get them historically until maybe november, december, when analysts have had the opportunity to pretty much see how the full year has gone, and then they weigh in on the following year. so the idea that goldman sachs and credit suisse and yardeni research and others are out with these 2020 do forecasts in the middle of august -- these 2022 forecasts in the middle of august, it is like they are moving up the timetable. they are so confident that they can go ahead and make projections for next year, even though we have a fair chunk of this year still to go. tom: thank you very much. greatly appreciate it. reaching back to the glory of highfield road and the coventry

city football club -- jonathan: here we go. tom: last night, i was in edge of tears as in "ted lasso," richmond took on the coventry blues. jonathan: i remember that walk, petrified of all of the men standing outside the pubs. i was a little kid. i went on trial at coventry city as a teenager. didn't make it. i remember a big name for coventry city was the former goalkeeper. he walked me off the training field, looked at me and said, no. jonathan: i looked at him and said, ok. and that was the end of that. tom: explain how these clubs keep going given tv and the megamoney of manchester city. coventry city beat the tots 30 years ago or something. jonathan: coventry city is a good idea of that. when they were in the premiership, they were a competitive club. once they fell through the league and got relegated, that is where things start to get really tough. the battle to get promoted and

bounce back is so difficult. it is really difficult. when you start to fall down one tear and the players -- one tier and the players start to leave, it can quickly unravel. coventry city in many ways did that. highfield road is a story of a long time ago. tom: they alluded to the plot last night with an "ted lasso" in richmond, relegated down, will be players have their contract renegotiated. do they make less money, or do they pay them at the big-league level? jonathan: it depends what is in the contract. there might be a contract that allows them to leave if they want to if they get regulated. often with the big clubs will do is renegotiate and try to get back in the top tier. one of the greatest stories of being regulated of the last couple of decades, the scandal shortly after the world cup in 2006. they went down to tier two, and they kept on some of the best

players in world all. they retained them in that club. they played in tier two in italy to get promoted back into -- into series a. why are we doing this? tom: we are doing this for paul sweeney because "ted lasso" is having a big impact on apple tv+ because that's all they've got. jonathan: i would be retiring from professional football now. isn't that great? tom: i remember the day i wouldn't play for the montreal canadiens. i was eight years old. jonathan: equities up two on the s&p 500. yields up to 1.353 6% on the 10 year. euro-dollar not doing much, $1.1734. crude, $68.90. for anyone wondering, i was a really lazy number 10.

didn't like to run. coming up, david kostin of goldman sachs, chief u.s. equity strategist. bullish on this equity markets and looking for 4700 on the s&p 500 year-end. from new york city come on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the market is going higher. there's no recession ahead, no credit crunch ahead, and there is still higher earnings i had. >> we are going to get pretty worried about inflation i think, and that could finally bring a stock market correction. >> we don't think the fed is still bothered by this degree of inflation. >> the policy response is different. we will get different inflation outcomes over the next two to three years. >> this we opening trade i would argue hasn't even started yet. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.